－J￣

ＡＰＤＡＲＥＳＯＵＲＣＥＳＥＲＩＥＳＺ

Ｄｅｃｅｍｂｅｒ、１９９６

－－テ＜￣

:鱸i蝋蝿l1ii1ii1灘ijlliiU命

鍵！ofUmtedINm：U6iDm四ﾖ剛pulationConferences‐－２０Ｙｅａｒ

■

Ｉ

DroToshioKuroda

llr蝋馳'111搬雛ｍＱｌｊｐｍ-20YearsofUnitedNationsPopulationConfbrences-

Ｄｒ・ＴｏｓｈｉｏＫｕｒｏｄａ

了縫

Ｄｒ・TbShioKuroda

Bom：１９０９

Ｐ正semtpogts

・DirectorEmeritus`NihonUniversityPopulationResearchlnstitute(NUPRI）

oMemberoftheboardofdirectors，

AsianPopulationandDevelopmentAssociation(APDA）

・chairman,FoundationFInstimtefOrResearchofPopulationProblem‐

AcademiccarEer

oGraduatedhPomtheCollegeofEconomics,NihonUniversity

・Completedgraduatecourse,Tolq/oUniversityofCommerce

・StudiedattheOHiceofPopulatio、Research,HPincetonUniversity

・StudiedattheNationallnstituteofDemographicStudiesqNED)，

MinistryofPublicHealth,Paris,France

・ProfessorEmeritus,JilinUniversity,china

･DoctorEmeritusofEconomicsDongaUniversity,Korea

PrCviouspositions

・Director,InstituteofPopulationProblems,MinishyofHealthandWeliare

・Director,NihonUniversityPopulationResea1℃hlnstimte

・chairman,PopulationAssociationofJapan

MajorpubUcations

olntroductiontoPopulationPiPoblems,(collaboration)NihonKeizaiShimbun

oLongevityoftheJapanese,NihonKeizaiShimbun,Inc．

・IjvinginanAgingSociety,TbyoKeizailnc．・TransitionalSmlctureoftheJapanesePopulatio､,KokonShom

(collaboration)NihonKeizaiShimbun,Inc．

２

Prolo騨le:Bacl囚gmundtoUleWbmdPopulationP1anofAction

1,1974,theUnitedNationsmvitedgovernmentalrepresentativesofitsmembercounhPies

totheRomaniancapitalofBucharestfbrtheWOrldPopulationConierence,theworld，shrst

discussionofpopulationproblemsThisconierencewasfbUowedlOyearslaterbythe

lnternationalConlerenceonPOpulaUonmMexicoCity>Mexico・AfUrtherdecadelaterEgypt

hostedthel9941nternationalConferenceonPopulationandDevelopmentmCairo

ThenamesofthesethreeconierencesdiffersomewhatFirsLthel974gathelingwas

caUeda`World，，Conference,whnethoseheldinl984andl994weretermed``mtemational，，、

Second，WhnetheBucharestandMexicoCitygatheringswereconvenedtodiscuss

``population，',theCairomeetingfOcusedon"populalionanddevelopment.',Inotherwords,the

mostrecentconferenceprobedvaliouspopulationproblemsinthewidercontextof

developmentThird,theWOrldPopulationPlanofAction(ＷPPA),WhiChwasadoptedm

BucharestandrehnedinMexicoCity〉wasrePlacedattheCairoconlerencｅｂｙｔｈｅ

"ProgranⅡneofAction,，，amoredetailedsetofactionprograｍｓ

ｌｎｒｅ甘ospect,itisworthnotingthatasetofprogramsincomoratingpoHcyconceptsas

progressiveasthatoftheWOrldPopulationPlanofActionwassuccessiilllyadoptedasearlyas

l974,aIbeitonIyafteranunusuaUyspiritedexchangeofopinions・Atthattime,somecounhies

withsocialistpoUciesrejectedtheconceptofovemopulaUonandfavoredmcreasmgtheir

populaUons・AmongthisgToupwereChinaandthethen-SovietUnionandEasternEuropean

countries,indudingRomania,thehostoftheconierenceMoreovel;theCathoUccountriesof

Lati、America,WherefamilyplanningwasdemedibrreUgiousreasons,constimtedanother

groupopposedtopopulaUonpoUdes

Itwasindeedepochalthatsuchadiversegroupcoulddiscussandevenmallyagreeonthe

WOrldPopulationPlanofAction,WhiChhadimpUcationsfarbeyondthepoUcyleveLSeveral

factorsledtotheeventualadoptionoftheactionplan,despitestrongopposition・

ThehrstfactorwasthaLpriortotheBucharestconference,thelnapidmcreaseintheworld，s

populationhadbeentakenupatpreviousmternationalmeetings,mparticulartwomeetings

heldinl972：theUnitedNationsConferenceontheHumanEnvironmentinStoCkholm，

Sweden,andtheSecondAsianPopulationConierenceinTokyo,Japan・TheStoCkholm

conlerencewimessedSharpdifferencesmopinionontherelationshipbetweenpopulation

３

growthandenvironmentaldeteriomationTheTolq/oconierencewasafOUowupmeetingtothe

hrstconferenceheldmNewDelhi,India,ｉｎ1963,wheretheneedfOrpopulationcontrolhad

beenstressedinUghtofthenegativeimpactofpopulationgrowthoneconomicdevelopment

TheNewDelhimeetingshouldberememberedasthehrstUnitedNaUo､sgatheringmWhich

familyplanmngandpopulationpoHciesweretakenup.(1)T11eexpansionoffamilyplanmng

serⅥceswasinco1poratedmrecommendationsandrCsolutionsadoptedatthatconference・

TheTbkyogathelingml972didnotseeargumentsopposedtopopulationpoHciesorfamily

plannmgTheopinionsexpressedtheresoughtfUrtherstrengtheningofthesemeasures

combmedwithg1℃aterconhDlsonpopulaUongrowthintheregion.②FbrtherepresentaUves

ofAsiancounbdesWhosharedthisconsensus,theBuCharestconierencewassomethmg

abnonnal,somethi､gtheycouldneveracceptEvenChina,WhoserepresentativedeUvereda

speechmBucharestbasedonMarxistthinking,ｓｅｅｍstohavebeenheadmgmanew

direction．Ｍ１:ＹＵＷａｎｇ,directorofStateFnmUyPlannmgCommissionofChina,Ｗｈｏｗａｓａ

ｍｅｍｂｅｒｏｆｔｈｅｓａｍｅｗｏｒｋｉｎｇcommitteeattheBucharestconfbrencetowhichthiswriter

belonged,onedaysoughtameetingwithme・Iwimngbracceptedhisoffel;andhadseveml

opportunitiestoexChangeopimonswithhim・Omheseoccasionshementionedthat,asChma

laggedJapaninthestudyofpopulationproblemsandingatheringinfOrmationonthestateof

theAsianpopulation,mscountryneededadviceandguidancehomJapan,acountrywithmuch

richerknowledgeandexpenenceinthesehelds・Ourmeetingsmayhavebeenthehrstever

contactonpopulationbetweenourtwocountlies・OurexchangeswiththeStateCommission

onHlmilyPlanningofChinacontinuedtodeepenthereaftel;aidedbythenormalizationof

diplomaticrelationsfOllowingJapanesePrimeMmisterKakuemanaka'svisittoChmatwo

yealsearliel：

AnotherpointtonotewasthestrongmtemationalimpactexertedbyncLﾉｸ"itsねＱｍｕ仇，

arCportpubUshedbytheClubofRomeinl972.(3)MakingtheargumentthatcivilizaUonwould

coUapsewithmacenmrybwerethewodd，spopulationgrowthandindustrializationtocontinue

unabated,thereportsentshockwavesaroundtheworld

EarlieZml968,Ｕ､S・biologistPaulEhrlichhaddweUedoｎｔｈｅｐossiblecrisisofexplodmg

Notel:TachiMinoIu,`IlhIrDdUcDbnIDPbpulaIMonRひblemsb，'theNikkeiUbIa｢y,NihonKeizaiShimbunInco『poratedI1969,pp79-B1

Note2:KumdaToshio,``AnCvBn/iewoflheSecbndAsianPqpulaDbnCDnierBncB,''1ssueNo.125ofStudiesolPopulation

PIoblems,1973,pp60-70

Note3：Meadows,DonellaetaL，meLlnWlちわＧのＭｈ:ARepo〃ｏｎｌｈｅＣｈｊｂｏｆＲｏｍｅ台Ｒてり巴ＣｌＤｎＩｈｅＰｒＢ的bamenfo'MankmdIPotomacAssodateBook,１９７２

＃

populationgrowthmhisbook,耐cPbl""的"ＢＤ”６.(‘）

TYlewarningscontainedmthesepubUcationsplayedanundeniableroleinawakening

peoPleworldwidetotheseriousrepercussionsofampidincreaseinthehumanpopulation・

Cleallyiacademia'saCknoWledgmentoftherapid，unprecedentedgrowthmthehuman

populationledtothemternationalpubUcizingofthisissueandtotheincreasinginterestofthe

massmediaConsequentlybitmaybenecessarytorefertothebasisofcurrentpopulation

problems;specihcally>theabnormaUyrapidincreasemwoddpopulationthatiswithoutpamUel

mhumanhistorｙ(5)

TheglObalpopulationincreasedatａｎａｖｅｍｇｅａｎｎｕａｌｒａｔｅｏｆＯ５ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｉnthel9th

centurylacceleratedto０．８percentmtheh1sthalfofthe20thcentury>andgainedhn･ther

momentumfOUowingWOrldWarmduringthehrstdecadeofthesecondhalfofthiscentury；

theavemgeannualgrowthratesoareｄｔｏl8percent,risingto2・O6percentmthesecondhalf

ofthel960s‐fOurUmestheaverageofthel9thcenturyand２．５timesthemteofthennsthalf

ofthe20thcenturybThisrapidincreasemthehumanpopulaUonoccurredchieUymcounhies

thathadacquiredindependencemthepostwarperiod・Whenglobalpopulationgrowthhrst

exceeded2percentayearmthel96065peliod,thepopulationindevelopingnationsalonewas

increasmgatarateof254percent,whnethatofdevelopedcountriesgrewatarateof０．９０

per℃ent

Itwasaroundl800thatthepopulationofthehumanmcehrstreachedthelbilUonlevel；

byl930,ithaddoubledto2bilUonWhilehundredsofthousandsofyearswereneededto

reachthelbilUonmark,the2bimonmarkrequiredonlyanotherl30years、Yetbyl960,or

only30yearslatel;theglobalpopulaUonincreasedto3bimon・ThefOurthbimonwasaddedin

amerel5yea1B,andthehflhbilUononlyl2yearslaterbAsthehumanpopulationisestimated

toreaCh6bimonbyl998,thelatestbimonwillhavebeenaddｅｄｍｏｎｌｙｌｌｙｅａｒｓ.(6)These

hgureseloquenUydemonstratehowrapidlythehumanpopulationhasbeenmcreasinginthe

secondha]fofthiscentury

Therateofgrowth,howevel;hasah℃adycrested､Thepeakof206percentwas1℃aChedin

Note4:Ehr1ichPau1,7内ePbpulalibnBombIBallanMne,NewYork,1968｣nl990EhrIichpublishedThePopulationExplosionISimon＆Schuster,ＮｅｗＹｄｋ・

Note5:TheUnitedNations,7heDelBﾉmjnantsandCOnssquencesolPDpuIaIibn77巴nds,Ｖｂﾉ;（1973,plO;alsolheUnitedNationsjWOrldPopulationProspects:Thel992Revision,NewYork,１９９３

Note6：Ｗｏｒｌｄpopulationinl980isIheave｢ageoItheIowandhighestimatesfo｢thatyearIistedinTheDeterminantsand

ConsequencesofPopulationT｢ends，ＶＯＬ１，１９７３，ｐ、１０;figu｢ｅｓｆＯｒｌ９３０ａｒｅｂａｓｅｄｏｎＴｈｅＷＯｒＩｄＰopulationYearbook,１９６７EdiIjonoandthosefo「1960,1975,1987andl998arehomWolldPopulationPmspects:Thel992Revision．

５

thelatberhaHofthel960s,andisestimatedtohavedroppedto1.68percentfOrthel99095

peliod,Notabh8howevel;theabsoluteannualmcreasesremaingreaterthanbefOre,despite

theSlowdowninthegrowthrateDu1ingthecurrentdecade,thelastofthe20thcentury〉the

averageannualmcreasewiUtoｐ９０ｍｉｍｏｎｌｎｅａＣｈｏｆｌ９９６ａｎｄｌ９９７ｍｐａrUcu]al;thehuman

populationisexpectedtomcreasebymorethan94mimonpeopleWithannualincreasesofat

least90milUonexpecteduntilroughlytheyear2025,thenext30yearswmrequireverycar巴fUl

momtoring(7)

nalsoShouldbenotedthattheremamngthreeyea鱈０fthiscenturywillbeaShortyet

sbnategicaUysignihcantperiodfOrourfilmre､WhetherhumanitytakesacUonduringthisMef

peliodwillhaveavitalimpactonourcoUectivedestiny

ThepopulationprOjecUonsbytheUnitedNations,revisedml992,suggestthree

possibⅢties:high,mediumandlowestimates､Theworldpopulationm2015wiUbe727billion，

ifthelowestimateprovesaccurate,butwiUrCach7,９３bimonifthehighestimateiscorrectb

WhetherthedifferencebetweenthetwoprOjections-660mnUonpeopleexistonb20years

hPomnowdependｓｏｎｕｓ，ToputthishgureinperspecUve,itisl50mimongreaterthanthe

currentpopulationofEurope，

ThediffelCncebetweenUlehighandlowestimatesisevengreaterfOrtheyear2050Ihe

highandlowprOjectionsfOrthemid-21stcenturyarel25billionand７．８bimon.⑧The

differcncebetweenthetwo‐４．７bimon‐isrough]yeqUaltothewoddpopulationofl985,4.85

bilUon

AlthoughtheannualgrowthmteoftheglobalpopulationhasSlowedhpom206percentm

theperiodl960巳65toL74percentmtheperiodl98590,thedeclineduringthisquartercentury

wasamere0.32percentagepoints・Thehugenumbersbemgaddedtothewoddpopulation

Note7：Ｔｈｅ『eⅥsionsofwolIdpopulationprOieclionsmadebymeUnitedNaUonsinl994｢evealremark池lechanges

DownwardrevisionshavebeenmadenotonlyinestimatesofpastpopulaUonstatistjcs,butalsoinlikeIyincreasesfortheMureSomeofthelbremostexamplesareshownbelow，

AcooldingIothepreⅥousprOiecUonsofl9921wor1dpopulationwasexpectedtoincreasebymorethan90millionayearinthel990s・ThenewplOiectionscallforanincIBaseofslightlymo｢ethan86million・TheprobablepopulaIionintheyea『２０１５isasshownin

Popu旧IjonPmiecionsfor2015（unit:millions）PopulationplOIeclionsIor2050（unit:milIions）LowMBdium HighHiglVLow

diIIe尼ntiaI

LowMedlumHighHigMDwdilfe尼nlial

ｓｓｎｎ

．ｐ・ｐ

函頭

酎》》 ７８２６．

７９２８

△102

722

657

l994prDlecUons

1992pIDiecions

Balance

７９１８

７８１３

１０５

9833

10019

Ａ186

１１９１２

１２５０６

△594

3994

4693

7104

7271

Ａ167

７４６９

7609

Ａ140

Note8：FiguIesfor2050arebasedontheUnitedNalions``Long-RangeWb巾PopuIa力ｂｎＰｌ[yecDDns:７ＷｏＣＳｎｌｍぢｓｏｆ

ＰｂｐｕｌａｌｉｂｎＧのwthブ950-275q'，NewYork,１９９２

６

eachyearclearlymdicatethattheplanefscapacityfOrsustainingsuchnumbersisnearingits

]imils

ThispopulationgmwthaffectsthefUtureofSpaceshipEarthandallhumanbeings，

regardlessofrace,reHgionorstageofdevelopmentmeAsianPopulationConibrenceandthe

internalionalgatheringsmBucharest,MexicoCib7andCairoresultedfomtherEcognitionthat

thisissuerequlresaglobal-scalesolution．

TIleWorldPopulationPlanofActionandthe

Bucha１℃stConfbrence

TheUnitedNationsWOrldPopulationConierencewasheldinBucharesth･omAugustl9

to30，1974．Ｉｔｗａｓｔｈｅｈ】stinternationalpopulationconierenceinWhiChgovemmental

representaUvesparticipatedTheseriousdashofopmionthattookplaceatthisconierence

eventuallyresultedintheWOddPopulationPlanofAcUonConsideringthat,atthattime，

populationpoliciesweredeemedmeregwemmentpoUciesandwereviewed，evenby

demograPhers,asunworthyofseliousacademicscruUny)theadoptionofanactionPlanwith

suChgreatpoUcysignifcancewastru1yrevolutionarySSincethisactionplanremainedthebasic

guideUnefOrpopulationpoUcyduringthefbUowingtwodecades,itsverybeginningsare

worthyofscruUny

Hrst,itShouldbenotedthattheoriginalplantabledbefOretheBucharestconference

underwentnumerousrevisionsasaresultofin-depthdiscussionsThebasicphilosophy

behi､dtheserevisionswastheneedtomtegratepopulationissueswithdevelopmentThis

considerationisoftenrepeatedmthetextoftheactionPlan．

ThesecondparagraPhoftheplan,fbrmstance,reads：

ﾙﾉﾉC臓仙唖α伽sjsm城ctpQpMJ加秘舵"ぬ加泌st"OtbecwOs娩形｡"bsj伽陀ﾉbγSDCか

CCD"o腕jMbDe叩沈e"tpOﾉ〃jEsb"'“伽囎ｊ"鞄池陀`〃枕伽sepoﾉｶﾞCBS伽0,TjeγjMzc"池ね助C

SO伽吻"q/Ｗ､伽伽bﾙｿｯMzc噸６０腕”t）e城）!gα"`aDcﾉ”e`、""jliEsα"肋伽沈oねα腕0”

bahz"c“α"｡、加"αJdBtﾉeﾉＤ，〃e"f⑨

FbrtheBucharestmeetmgtopresentsuchabalancedandraUonalprescriptionfOr

developmentwaslaudable,butdoingsowasbeyondthepurviewoftheconference,ａｓthe

Note9：WondPopu旧tionPIanofAction,pa｢agIaphl4(a）

７

majorityofthegovernmentreplCsentativesassembledtherewereeitherdiplomatsorwe1fare

ofnci21s

lnBuCharestandMexicoCitylpoUcydiscussionsevolvedaroundbothpopulationand

development,butthetwoconlerencesweresUUcaUｅｄ``population''meetingslnconhnst,the

meetingmCairoinl994wascaUedaconierenceon"populationanddevelopmenf，、

Onenotablefeatureofthel974WOrldPopulationP1anofActionwasitsoptimisticviewof

thefUtureofhumankind,withitsemphasisontheimportanceofhumanbeingsasaresource

anditspredictionthatwewouldbeabletoensureabrightfUturefOrourselvesthroughourown

se]fconhPolandenvironmentalpreservationeffOrts・Thislineofthmkingreqectedtheviews

espousedbythesociaUstcounhriesofthetime・

RepeatingafOcusofIheUnitedNationsConferenceontheHumanEnvironmentat

Stockholm,thegreatdiscrepanciesmwealthbetweentheNorthandSouthandthemassive

consumpUonofnaturalresourcesindevelopedcountrieswerethesubiectsofheated

discussions，withdevelopmgcounhFiescastingharshcriticismsonrichercountliesm

BucharesLAsaresult,itwasdecidedthatdevelopedcountriesadoptappropliatepolidesto

regulatetheirhighconsumpUonlevelsinorderlDnarrowthedifferencemstandardofhving

asclibedtounjustmternationaleconomicrelations,particularybypromolingbetterutilization

ofglobalresourcesandimprovingmternationaljustice、

TYleconierencealsoadoptedmanysocialandeconomicpoUciesfOundedonhumanrights，

IHtherthanonpopulationpoHcies・Specialemphasiswasplacedontheneedtoimprovethe

socialstatusofwomen,particularyontherightofwomentoparticipatehlUyindecisionmaking

andimPlementaUonofsocialandeconomicpoUdesandontheimportanceｏｆｅｑｕａｌ

participationbymenandwomenmeducationandmsodal,economic,culmralandpoUtical

activities・Ineveryparagmph,theacUonplandemandedthatgovernmentsaboUShexisting

discliminationsagainstwomenandinvestmoremeducationalandhealthsh･ategiesAlthough

humaMghtsconsideraUonswerebehmdsomeofthesereconmendations,theywerBclearly

importantmthemselvesltwastheCairoconierenceml994thatdehnedastrengthened

positionａｎｄｒｏｌｅｆＯｒｗｏｍｅｎａｓａｂａｓｉｃｓｔｒａｔｅｇyibrsoMngpopulationproblemswhile

presentingtheconceptof“theempowermentofwomen'，asanmtegratedhFamework・

A1thoughwomen，srightsinspecihcheldswerediscussedatlengthmBucharesLthe

discussionsremainedrathergeneralmnature

AgreatiailureoftheBucharestconferencewasitsdiscussionofthethemeofintegration

ofpopulationissuesanddevelopmentmthecontextofdevelopmentpoHcieslargdyunrelated

８

topopulationpoUcies;conseqUently)UttleornotimewasavailablefOrconcretediscussionof

populationpoUciesTheconferenceshouldhavediscussedspecihcaUyhowtoarrest

populationgmwth,therootcauseofweakorstagnanteconomicgrowth・ItshoUldhave

devotedmorediscussiontomethodsofdistribuUnginfOrmationonfamilyPlanningasameans

ofpreventingunplannedbirths・

DuringthenrsttwoごthirdsoftheBucharestmeeUng,notasingleproblemrelatedtofami]y

planningwastakenup，Therepresentativesofdevelopingcountieseitherignoredfamib

planningcomPlete]yorbralldeditasunrelatedtodevelopmentTheirdiscussionscenteredon

developmentpoUciesenvisagedmtheconceptofaNewlnternationalEconomicOrdeエThese

wereemptydiscussionstotaUyunrelatedtopopulationissues・Anunusualchange,howeveE

occurredduringthelastdaysoftheconferenceAstheworkingcommitteecontinueditsdai1y

paragraphbyparagraphexaminationofthedraftacUonPlanuntillatemtothenight,thetopicof

familyPlanningwassuddenlysuggestedandapprovedThefamilyplanningprograms

reconⅡnendedmthedraftwereauthorizedandaddedtothehnalacUonplanwithon1yafew

l9ev1s10ns

A1thoughoneexperttermedthislasbminutechangea``miracle,，，itwasactuaUytheresult

ofbehindthe-scenesnegotiationswimessedbythiswriteBwhowasamemberofthewolking

committee.⑩ConhDntedbyherceoppositiontotheconceptofpopulationpolicies,especially

iami]yplannmg,。ulingtheErstweekoftheConference,theshoCkedrepresentativesofAsian

countliesheldtheirowndailymeetingstodiscussacountermeasureTheFYrstAsian

PopulationConferenceinl963andtheSecondConferenceinl972hadestabHsheda

consensusamongAsiancountliesontheneedtostempopulatiｏｎgrowthandpromotefamily

PlannmgservicesBuildingonthisfOundatio､,theAsianrepresentativesresortedtoanall-out

effOrttopersuadeoppositiongroupstochangetheirmindsItwasthroughsuCheffOrtsthat

theconferencemanagedtokeepalivethespiritofthedraftactionplanonfami]ｙｐｌａ､､ing、

Thus,Whatappearedtobeamiracletooutsidershadamuchdifieremappearancetomsiders

lnterestingly>asimilaroccurrencetranspiredmCairo,ａｓwell,andwiUbepresentedlatermthis

report

Oneofthemajorrevisionswasthescrappingofpopulationgrowthtargetsasmappropriate

WherehlmilyPlanningwasofferedinalimitednumberofdevelopmgcounhiesandｗａｓ

NotelO:DemenyPauI,``lUSSPPqpulalibnandDeﾚSbpmenflntemationalConferenceonPopuIationandDevelopment,"

Cairo,１９９４１IUSSPDistinguishedLectu｢GSeries1p7

,

comPlete]yvohntarylestab1iShmentofspecihctargetpopulationgrowthrHteswas

meaningless，EveninCairo20yearslatel;notaIgetswereagreedonfOrpopulaliongrowth

mtesorbirthrates,ahhoughimprovementtalgetswereadoptedfordeathrates

ThepopulationprOjectionsbytheUnitedNations,revisedinl994,representdownward

revisionshPomthosepreparedtwoyealsearlielmheworldpopulationprOjectedfOrtheyear

2000wiUbe6.158bimon,or70mimonfewerthantheprOjectionmadeinl992,whnethenew

prOjectionfOrtheglobalpopulationm2025pointslDalevelof8294bimon,orareductionofl78

mnnonBomtheprOjectionmadeinl992､Thesedownwardrevisionswerebasedchieflyon

predictionsofslowergrowthfOrdevelopedcountlies、Thel994prOjectionfOrdeveloped

countriesin2025isl65mnUonfewerthanthel992prOjection,accountingfOrasmuchas93

pe1℃entoftheprOjecteddeChnemglobalpopulation

This,howevel;doesnotrCpr℃sentadeclineintherelativeimportanceofthepopulaiionsof

developingcountliesmtheg1obalpopu1ationpictureDevelopingcounhieshavelong

accountedfOranoverwhelmingshareoftheincreasemtheglobalpopUlationandwillcontinue

todosomthehlture

Certainly)theadditionstothepopulationthataretakingPlaceinthel990sarethelalgest

onrecordandtheprOjectedworldpopulationfbrthemidd1eofthenextcenmrywiUrangetom

9.833bimoMmediumestimate)to11.912bUUon(highestimate)．NomatterWhiChestimate

provesthemoreaccumlE,apopulationoflObillionwouldmakeitverydifficu]tfbrhumanityto

maintainevenaminimalstandardof1iving

Againstthisbackground,apopulationof8bimon‐closetothelowprOjectionof79175

bUhonfOr2050-shouldbeacceptedasthemaxlmumhuma、population,notonlyibrthesake

ofthepeacefUlcoexistenceofall，butalsotoensuresustainabledevelopmentand

environmentalconservation・ItisardenUyhopedthatinternationalpopulationconferences

ceasetｏｂｅｖｅｎｕｅｓｆＯｒ“nonsenseostensiblygroundedinreugion,，andinsteadbecome

opportunitiesfOrthediscussionofconditionsandpoliciestoensurethesurvivalofhumankind．

ＩｍＹｅａｒｓＬａｔｅｒ

A1thoughtheBucharestconfe1℃nceendedwithunexpectedlystrongconhPontations,the

nextconferCncemMexicoCityendedwithanurryofamicableagreementsfOIgedman

unexpectedhrcalmamlosPhere.、eachievementsofthesetwomeetingswerebothdifficult

ＺＯ

topredictandtotaUydifferentincontent・

SomethinghadhappenedduringthelOyearsbetweenl974andl984;weshouldconsider

whatmadetheMexicoCityconferenceaquietgatheringthatdifferedsomuchhomthe

meetingmBucharesLAchange,mternationalmscope,hadoccurr℃dduringtheprecedinglO

yearperiod,andlargelymthel970s

ThegreatestchangeofallwastheglObalrecessionofthel970s,whichfbUowedthe

postwarreconstructionandprosperitythatshapedtheworldeconomyofthel960s・Ｔｈｅｈｌｓｔ

ａｎｄｓｅｃｏｎｄｏＵｓｈｏＣｋｓｏｆｌ９７３andl979plungedthemternationaleconomicmarketsmto

considemblechaos・Thewoddeconomy)whiChhadgrownatanavemgeannualmｔｅｏｆ４､９

pe1℃entmthel950sand52percentmthel960s,begantolosemomentumandmanageda

growthmteofon]ｙ3.4percenLInpercapitaterms,thegrowthratedulingthel970saveｍｇｅｄ

ａｍｅｒｅ１．６percent(ID

ThelOyeaJnsprecedingtheMexicoCityconferencewerethusmarkedbyaglobal

economicstagnationunderwhiChdevelopedcountries，withtheirweakenedecononues，

becamereluctanttoofferahelpinghandtodevelopmgcountries・

Somedevelopingcountries,however;mEastandSoutheastAsia,wereove１℃omingthe

intemationalrecessionandatlainingeconomicgrowthiarhigherthanthatofdeveloped

TablelPopulationGrowthRatesinSomeAsianCountries(％）

Rateofdecline

（A)-(B)/(A）country 1965-70(A） 1975-80(B）1970-75

China

Korea

Singapore

Thailand

Japan

2.61

2.25

1.97

3.08

1.08

２．２１

２．００

１．７３

２．９２

１．５３

８５０４９

４５３４８

■●●●●

１１１２０

３１０８６

●■●●白

娼引型如而

SCU1℃e：UnitedNations:WoI1dPopulaUonP｢ospects;Thelg94Revision，InsIituteforPopulationPloblems,MinistIyofHealthandWeUare,Japan

Ｎｏｔｅｌｌ:Wondwatchlns1itute,MStateoftheWorldlg95,''Ｗ､WNorton＆Company,NswYork,ｐ､１３;Table1-2.

Ｗo｢ldeconomicgIowlhbydecade,totaIandperpeIson

DecadeAnnualGmwth(%）AnnuaIGIcwlhperperson(％）1950-60

1960-70

1970-80

1980-90

1990-94(prel.）

９２４９４

●■●いい

４５３２１

３．１

３２

１．６

1.1

-0.3

1１

coumies,thanksmparttotheirpopulationco､杜oleffOrts・T1ablelshowschangesinthe

popUlationgrowthlatesinsomeofthesecounhPiesmlhreehveyearperiodsbeginnmginthe

midl960s

TY1istablecleallyShowsthattherapidpopulationgrowthinthesecounhPiesmthel96570

perioddecHnedshamlyinthel970s,especiallyduringthesecondhalflnThailand,fbr

example，theeconomlcgrowthratealreadyaveraged81percentinl961-66,Whenthe

populationwasgrowingatanannualrateofmorethan3pe1℃entThecountrycontinuedto

enjoyhighgrowth:7.8percentml967-71,and7.1percentinbothl972-76andl977B1.('2)Japan

controlleditspopulationgrowthmuchearUerthanitsAsianneighboTs,achievingagrowthrate

of1essthanlpercentasearlyasthesecondhalfofthel950sEvidenUybJapan'seconomygrew

quicklyinparallelwithitssuccessmpopulationconhPolu3）

ThesecondmaiorchangeduringthelOyearsbetweenBucharestandMexicoCitywas

seeninthebehaviorsofsomeofthelargestdevelopmgcountries,Chinainparticulamln

Bucharestin1974,China，srepresentativedeUveredaspeechmarkedwithtypicalsocialist

ideologyKAccordmgtotherepresentative,nopopulationproblemexistedundersocialismand，

shouldanyaIise,ilssolutionwouldlieinhghtingtheimperialism,colonialism,neo-coloniaHsm，

a991℃ssionandusurpationofthesuperpowers、TherepresentativeaddedthatapopulaUon

couldneverbetoolargebecauseallpeoplewereapreciousresource・Ｏｎｌｙｎｖｅｙｅａlnsafter

Bucharest,howeveEChinaembarkedonapoUcywithouthistoricalprecedent:itreplacedits

twoChUdpoUcywithaone-childpoUcy；氏wpeopleindevelopedcounbsiesandintheUnited

NationsbeUevedthatsuchadrasticbirth-regulatingpoUcywouldbesuccessfULMostother

developingcounb｢ieswerealsoskepticalabouttheChinesepoUcyB

Ｎｏｔｅｌ２:AsianPopuIalionandDevelopmentAssociation，Repo'tsonUbanjzalibnandDeVBlopmenfjnAs伯nCCunmes‐７hai1andL'1995,ｐ31,Table2ITargetsandAchievementsofEconomicDeveIopmentPlans”

Notel3:Minami,Ryoshin,"71heEbonomjbDevebpmenlofjapan,aOuanlil日tivBSlUdM''Secondedition,MacmⅢanPressUd.，

1994,ｐ40,TabIe32Economic9rcwthIateG(Y),popu1aIiongrowthG(N)and9rowthofper-capitaGNPG(Y/N)injapanl876-1988(％）

ListsonlypostwarIi9uresf｢Dmthistable

PeriodG(Y）Ｇ(N）Ｇ(Y/N）1956-60

1961-65

1966-70

1971-75

1976-80

1981-85

1986-88

(1995-88）

頸卵印釦胎卯頓而

■■●●●●の●

８９９５４３４６

、的霞銅盟町印卯

●□。●●●Ｐ■

１０１１００００

７３４

ａ99

8.42

３．９７

３．１４

３．２３

3.95

5,73

Note:GIDwIhIatesa『esimpIeaveIagesofannuaIgrowth｢ates．

1２

Ｃｈｍａ，sbirthrate,howeveEdroppedto24､８ｐｅｒ1,000peopleml974,theyearofthe

BucharestconierenceThiswasaSharpdrophFomthebirthrateof33.3recordedonlyfbur

yearsearlier;moreoverlbyl979-theyeartheone-childpoUcywaslaunched-thebirthmbehad

decreasedtol7､8,alevelusuallyseenindevelopedcountriesThedeclineinChina'sbirthrate

wasmuchlasterthanthatexperiencedinthedevelopedcountriesoftheWestmtheirso-called

demographictransitionhFomhighbirthanddeathratestolowbirthanddeaUlrates・MoreoveE

China，sone-ChildpolicybwidelyregardedasunreaUstic,achievedsuccessonlyEveyearsafter

theBucharestmeetingEvidenUy)althoughChmahadreiectedtheideaofpopUlationpoUcym

itsofhcialspeechattheBucharestconierence,ｉｔhad，ineffect,begunpromotingfamily

plannmgbefOrethatconlerence・

Understandably｝China,withapopulationof90Omillionatthattime,mayhaveresortedto

populaUoncon甘olinordertoensureadequatefOodsuppHes,butdoubtsremainaboutWhat

promptedChineseleademstoimposeaone-childpolicythatmighthavesparkeddomesticsocial

andpoUticalunrestMostlikely）Chineseleade1nswerewellawareoftheseverityoftheiOod

problemsthatwouldsurelyariseshoulditspopulationcontinuetoincreaseunabatednisalso

1ikelythattheinternaUonalconsensusonpopulalioncontrol，inthefOnnoftheWOrld

PopulationPlanofActionjustattainedattheBucharestconference,innuencedtheChinese

leaders,。ecisiontoimplementtheone-childpolicyblronicaUy；theactionplanincomorates

China,sofhcialMarxistinsistencemBucharesLyetitremainssignihcantthatthecounhy

adoptedmajorchangestoitspopulationpoUcyonlyhveyearsafterthemternational

conierence

Remarkablechangesalsoappearedinhdia,theworld，ssecondmostpopulouscounhFy）

afterChma・IndiawastheiirstdevelopingcountrymAsiatoadoptagovernmentsponsored

familyplanningprogmm、TY1elndiangovemment,underPrimeMinisterJawahallalNehru，

ene屯eticallyassistedtheiamilyplanningmovement,butmBucharesLthecountryattracted

attentionhPommanydevelopmgcountriessufferinghomrapidpopulationgrowthandslow

economicprogresswithitsinsistencethat"“tﾉe”〃e"jjs伽besjco"”c幼蜘c腕c[zso"Pb,，In

Aprill976,orlessthantwoyearsaitertheconference,IndiaannouncedanewpopulationpoUcy

PartofthisnewpoUcybwithgreatimPlications,readasfOUows：

‘`〃仇c沈如”q/仇e"α吻捌ｉｓねbesec""‘し.、仇ep”"/zztjり"伽b陀腕加川ｈａｔ）cmbcﾉﾌﾞｍねdczs

amp"α姉"αﾉ，加"〃α"｡“〃””e"f…〃たc陀αγ肋ａｊｓｊ”IDﾉｍ〃αﾉｵﾉbγe”cα姉"α"`ccひ"0”ｃ

dをDCﾉﾛ,柳e"'〃b〃"gabo"/αｄ,りＰｊ"ﾉｾγ"ﾉｶﾉだ〃0tα伽ｃｔｊｍﾉsD"ﾉ"伽"・mcz）CDﾉz"cγmscz〃

,⑫"ﾉﾋz'わ〃腕ahescco"0沈允(ねz）cﾉＤＰ"e"tsl0z(）α"`”0”d減c"ﾉﾉq/αcﾉＺｊα）cﾌﾞﾘze"ｆ７１Ｉｚｃｔｊ”c巾c”

1Ｊ

ｉｓ，γZssj)２９α"‘幼Ｃｌ”"ﾉﾋz吻几”"仇soﾉ6ｍ､勉bﾙ,”rzUehα"e勿駅ｔｏ"tq/幼eDjcjり焔α“

幼"卿(Ｍ"cmsszz"/t〃0"腕js伽bﾉe”ａｓα"α伽“jcwO2””e"f､､ルα”q/腕e伽Ｍｂａｒｚｚ

ｓｍねkg加加",ｊＭｉｅ欧舵ｊｓｅｑ/的oOUjzlO"elMbcjtjEs伽t枕e伽ejs⑰eα"`がMecEssUzびわ

pczMgﾒsAz肋"ﾉbγCO”"Ｍ)ﾉ噸jiH2[z肋",ﾉｵﾉﾘ0〔zjMosa'，('４）

Thisstatementrevealsthat，shorUyaitertheconierence，ｔｈｅｌｎｄiangovermnent

comPletelyrescindｅｄｉｔｓｏ価cialpositioninBuCharestltsreco､Ⅲnendationthatstate

govemmentsbeallowedlDundertakefOrciblecontraceptioncanbeconsiderednoless

signihcantthantheone-childpoHcydisdosedbyChinathreeyearslateⅢSomeestimatesdaim

thatthisnewpoUcyresultedmmorethansixmUUonsterilizationsthroughoutlndiadulingthe

secondhalfofl976alone.u5）WemustrememberthattheadoptionoftheWbddPopulation

PlanofActionplayedarolemlndia，sdramaticturnabouthPomanemphasisonfami]yplannmg

and``developmentasthebestconhhaceptive，，tｏabeUefmdirectpopulationconhPoL

ThecombmedpopulaUonsofChinaandmdiatotaltwobimon、Itisworthnotingthat，

shordyaftertheBucharestconiere､Ce,boththesegiantsresortedtopoliciesquitediffelent

hPomtheideastheyhadespousedpliortoandduringtheconierence・Theiractionsalso

directedtheattenUonofmanyotherdevelopingcounhFiestotheirpopulationproblems・Quite

possibly)theirboldpoHciesencouragedcountrieswithexistingpopulationcontrolpoliciestobe

moreactiveintheirimplementation,andmspiredcounhiesonthevergeofimplementing

populationpoHciestomakehrmdecisions・Thesetwopopulationgiants，laCkofenthusiasmfOr

theplanofaction，despitetheirexpenencesinfami]yplannmgcanbeascribedtotheir

governments'tendencytosupportthecontentionsoflheSouth・

TYlethoroughgomgpopulationconhPolmeasuresadoptedaftertheBucharestconference

seemtohavebecometheveryfOundationofthebroadconsensusreachedattheMexicoCity

conierence

AnotherbasisfOrtheagreementinMexicoCiⅣwasthemterestshownbyLatinAmerican

countries-whohadbeenstronglyopposedtopreviouspopulaUonpoUcies-mobtainmgUmted

NationsassistanceiOrtheirfamilyPlanningprogramssoonaftertheBucharestconlermce

ThepubhcendorsementoffamilyplanningprogramsbysuChLatinAmericanpowersasBrazil

andMexico,fOllowingtheirshFonglyvoicedoppositiontotheconceptoffamilyplanningm

Notel4:Govemmentoflndia,uNationalPopulationPoIicy,''１６ApnI1976(PauIDemeny:℃ucharest,MexjcoCityⅢandBeyond,｡PbpulahbnandDeI/DlolDmenlReWewb11,No.１，Marchl985,plOO）

Ｎｏｔｅｌ５:DemenyPaul,``Bucharest,MexicoCity,ａｎｄBeyond,"PopulationandDevelopmentReⅥｅｗ,１１，ＮＣｌ,ＭａｒＣｈ1985,ｐ、１００

1４

Bucharest,mdicatedtheirrecogniUonofthenegaUveimpactofpopulationgrowthontheir

modernizationeffOrts・Despitethetremendousconhlsionthatprevailedmtheconierence

momsmBucharest,theadoptionoftheWOddPopulationPlanofAcUoncanbeunderstoodto

havehadanextremelystronginHuenceworldwideTheadoptionofdrasticpopulationpoUcies

byChinaandlndiaandtheincreasedunderstandingandpromotionoffamilyplanning

programsinmanyotherdevelopingcounhiescanbeviewedasthegreaにstachievementsof

theBuCharestconference

lnconsidelingthe"BucharesteffecL'，ｗｅＳhouldnotfbrgetthatthemembercountriesof

thethenEconomicCommissionfOrAsiaandtheFarEast(CAFE)-thepredecessoroftodays

EconomicandSocialCommissionfOrAsiaandthePacihc(ESCAP)‐werehrmlyunitedin

advocatingtheneedfOraplanofactionandindehlsmgoppositionopmionsThesecountries

mcludedthemembersoftheAssociaUonofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)andAustralia

andotherAsiancounhies,withtheexceptionsofChinaandlndiaIntheirpartoftheworld，

thepromotionofpopulationcontrolandfamilyplanningalreadyhadbeenestablishedas

indisputablemodernizatio、sUntegiesfOllowingthetwoAsianPopulationConferencesinl963

andl974.Asapioneermtheheldofpopulationcontrol,AsiahadalreadyestabUshedapoUcy

hethatwasimplementedmotherregionsthroughtheBuCharestconferenceAsiahad

alreadyimplementedthebasicideasoftheBucharestplaｎｏｆａctionandhadestabUshedthe

fOundationiOraglobalconsensus

ARippleonlheSurface‐TheBacmwardStepoftheU.S、

InAprill984,exacUylOyearsaftertheBuCharestconierence,representativesofmorethan

l50countriesgatheredmMexicoCityfOrtherenamedlnternationalConlerenceon

PopulaUon・Thepurposeofthegatheringwastoexaminethereportsofparticipatingcounhies

ontheirimPlementationoftheWOrldPopulationPlanofAcUonadoptedinBucharestNota

fewdevelopingcounbiesreportedonpoHciesthatdifferedgreatlyhomwhattheyhad

promisedinBucharestNonetheless,theseandothergovemmentalreportsweresulprisingly

consistentintheirwidespreadrecognitionofthenegativeinnuenceofpopu1ationgrowthon

developmentandofthehighprioritiesgiventotheirpoUciesfOreasingpopulationpressuresIt

seemedthatthecountriesoftheworldjomedmachorusofpraisefOrtheWOrldPopulation

PlanofAction・A1soremarkableweretheChangesseenmtheattitudetowardiamilyplannｍｇ，

1夕

WhichfarexceededtheexpectationsofparticipantsAhnosteverycountryproudlyreported

ontheachievementsmadedulingtheprecedinglOyearsMissmgwereargumentsbasedon

ideologiesandpoHticalsystemsThecountrieswerereminiscentofstudentsreportingonthe

homeworktheｙｈａｄｃｏｍｐｌｅｔｅｄｄuringtheirsummervacations

ThisemphasizedandvalidatedtheprinciplesandpumosesoftheBucharestplanofaction、

Theon1ymajorachievementoftheMexicoCityconferencewastheadoptionofasetof

reconnnendationsfOrfUrtherimPlementingtheplanofactionthat,ineffecLcreateda``rehned，，

versionoftheBucharestdocument

TheMexicoCityconlerencewasnotcompletelysmooth,however,Arippleappearedthatl

althoughnotbigenoughtodisrupttheconierenCe,wasstiUmteresUngenoughtoprovidea

topicfOrHvelydiscussion・UnexpectedlybthedisturbancecamehomtheUnitedStates．Ｉnits

report,ｔｈｅＵＳ､representativedeniedthepliorityaccordedinBucharesttopopulaUonpoHcies

andmsteadpreachedlheclassicalWesterntheoryondemograPhictransitionthatpopulation

controlwasimpossiblewithouteconomicdevelopmentThisopinionrepeatedIndia，s

textbookFUkemsistenceoflOyearsearlierbwhichcouldsparksociaUstthinkingonpopulation

TheactivitiesoftheUS・delegaUon,headedbyWilUamHDrapeEJI:,drewgreatattention，

althoughtheyrepresentedagreatregressionandtheinteUectualdegeneraUonoftheAmerican

delegation,whichhaddevotedmuchofitse､ergytotheadopUonoftheplanofactionm

BucharestOnceaiOremostadvocateofiamilyplannmgprogramsasacountermeasureto

rapidpopulatio、growth,theUnitedStatesenteredMexicoCityasawouldbeChampionofa

worn-outpopulationtheory8BmndingtheemphasisonpopulationpoHciesa“demogmphic

overreaction,"ｔｈｅＵ.S・delegaUonmadethefOUowingstatemen上

‘`〃ひれα”gDDem籾e"応〃だ"e`，⑰"hz吻秘cw､”/机e(zs脚稻z(ﾉﾉ肋o"jsD""dcm"0腕jCp0ﾉﾉａｅｓ

ｆ/izzt舵αね肋cｿfse伽Jjiﾉ蝿Sm"“）Tjs〃た""cnJlbﾉassocjZz“z(ﾉﾉ加肋cdbcﾉﾉ"ej"ﾉｾｿﾞtjjjliwmEamjs

(Ｊ１，"α巾ﾉias〃0ｵzowlhed,Ｐが腕αｿmybeazzlseガハ(zsﾉbczｨsｅｄｏ〃αSyj"，勿沈α"。〃妙c〃ｄ伽

測'@ｄＢ'１６ﾉﾉ麺α物“凪.…Pb，"kz加〃“"姉ﾉｐｍｇ７ｍ》@sα〃"eczz""ｏｊｓ"６s〃t"ねﾉbγ仇ｃｅｃＯ"0"2ｃ

'Z/b"'9s仇ａｔ〃tα”c物0"肋e”αd、“”g””α"｡,(zsa卯肱耀娩c4m"ａｍｓ"0(）FrpO鋺如〃

Z"舵ZZSeaSZML，'(MD

ItisnowonderthatlearnedpeopleassembledinMexicoCityweresurprisedattheUS

delegation，sintentiontobecomeachampionofanewpopulationpoUcyinMexicoCityBT11is

writersoundedoutmanyexpertshPomtheUnitedStates,butthey)too,werestunnedbythe

Ｎｏｔｅｌ６:DemenyPau1,ibid.,ｐｌＯ１

１６

comnentsofthedelegationsentbytheWhiteHouse・

ＴＹｌｅＵ.S・mistakebeganWhenthemembersofthedelegationwereChosen、EXperts

afmiatedwiththeU・SAgencyfOrInternationalDevelopment(AID),whiChhaddevotedvast

resourcesandmanypersonnelsearchingfOrsolutionstotheworld，spopulaUonproblemsm

thel960sand1970s,wereexCludedhomthedelegationattheverystartoftheselecUon

process、ChoseninsteadwerepeoplereconⅡnendedbypro-lifeolganizationsopposedto

abortionandwithopUnnsticviewsoftheglobalpopulaUonsituationTheirideasweresinnlar

tothoseofCathoHcs,andtheMexicoCityconferencewasChosenasanidealvenuefOrthemto

expresstheirviews、SuChviewswouldneverbeacceptedbytheWestemworldmgeneraL

Ignoredandcold-Shoulderedbyothers,theU､S､delegationwasisolatedmMexicoCity(m

OnecoulddismisstheissuessurroundingtheUS・delegationasadomesUcproblemfOr

theUnitedStates,buttheopinionsitexpressedinMexicoCitymncountertotheinternational

agreementalreadyreachedIntheend,itwasbutasmallvoicemaloudmternationalchorus．

Ｔｈ℃eGlObalUPheavals

ＴｈｅＳｅｃｏｎｄＷＯｒｌｄＷａｒｉｓｒｅｇａｒｄｅｄａｓａwaterShedthatchangedhumanhistoryB

AccordingtoLattimore(1947)('8),thishistoricalchangewasCharacterizedbythedebutofAsia，

andespeciaUyChina,ontotheworldstage．Ｉnthelongviewofhumanhistoryithe``pre‐

civilization''phaseeventuaUygavewaytothe"civilization，，phase・Nowbtheworldischanging

again,enteringthenextstageof"posbcivilization.，'The20thcenturywilltherefOrebecaUedthe

periodofthethirdGreatTmnsiUon＄oulding,1964)u鋤．

nisgeneraUyaCknowledgedthatthe20thcentury〉especiallythelatlErha]ffbUowingWbdd

WarⅡ,hashadpecuUarcharacterisUcs

Thisessayaimstodehnethefeaturesofthiscenturybyibcusingonthetwodecades

betweenl974,whenthehrstWbrldPopulationConlerencewasheld,and1994,theyearEgypt

hostedthethirdsuchconiermceinCair０．Inotherwords,itisanoverviewofthiscenturyin

UghtoftheglobalizationofsevemlphenomenaHere,globaUzedphenomenameansmddents

Notel7:AstolheUS・situationatthattime1seeFinkleJasonLandCIaneBa巾ａｒａＢ,`YdeobgyandPcｶﾞｶﾞ℃sjhMGxjboCm/v

7heUhilBdSIalDsafthe7g8邸lnle汀旧bbnaﾉConherBnceonPDpulallbn,"PopulationandDevelopmentReview,11,No.

１，Ｍaにｈｌ９８５,ｐｐ､1.28．

Ｎｏｔｅｌ８:Ｌａ廿imore,OwenandEleanor,1947．‘Chjha,ＡＳｈｏ〃ＨｉｓｌｂＩ]/,,Ｗ、Ｗ・ＮＯＲＣ、＆company,NewYork、

Notel9:BouIding,Kenneth,Ｅ､,1994,7heMDanjngofZheTWenIYelhCemU](Harper＆RowPublishe『ｓ,1,｡,NewYork．

1７

thatarefOundnotinaUmitedareasuchasareglonoranation,butthosethat,itisgenerally

recognized,ａ1℃spreadingwoddwide、PropermeasuresmustbetakenmternationaDy;ona

globalscale,ｉｎ【℃sponsetosuchdevelopmentsNosuchphenomenahadoccurMmhuman

historybeibrCWOrldWarlL

ThehrstglobauzedPhenomenonisthewolldpopulationexplosion.、lemtionalebehind

thehlnstWOddPopulationConierencewasthe2percentannualmteofpopulationmcreasem

thel960s,anextraordinaryhgureunprecedentedinhumanhistory6Atthattime,theworld

washorrinedattheprospectthattheworld，spopulationmightexceeditsfbodsupply8TYle

WOddPopulationConlerencewasheldinBucharestml974asaresultofthisdevelopmentand

sevemlconferencesandreports,mcludingtheFirstAsianPopulationConferenceml963,Ｔｈｅ

〃”"吻伽励伽(20)byEEhrlichml968,theUnitedNationsConferenceonthｅＨｕｍａｎ

Environmentml972,andtheworld-shakingreport,”Ｌ伽tsねＧ”"仇,②)publishedbythe

ClubofRomethesameyeamBefOretheBucharestgathelingwascalled,thefUsehadburned

andthepopUlationbombexploded,asEhrlichstatedmhisl990fOllowしupwolk,Ｔ池Plqp"kz吻卯

Enp伽0".(理）

ThepopulationexPlosion,thehrstoftheglobalPhenomena,startedinlhiscenmryandwiU

continuetothrEatenhumanexistenceatleastuntilthemiddleofthenextcenturyG

ThesecondglobalPhenomenonisthedeshmctionoftheglobalenvironment,whicharose

mlimitedareasornationsaspoUutionproblems,generallyconnnedtodevelopedcounhiesm

thel970s,whentheworldeconomywasgrowing､Inthel980s,thedeshPuctiondevelopedinto

aglobalphenomenoninvolvingdevelopingreglons・Theenvlronmentaldestructiontookthe

shapeofglobalwarming,watershortages,acidmin,desertihcationandairpoUution,noneof

WhichisconnnedtoaparticularnaUonorreglon;ontheconmrylallthesethreatsalCcrucial

tothehumanrace・TheSecondlnternationalPopulationConierencewasheldinl984,WhUe

theseenⅥronmentalproblemsweresp1℃adinggloballyKIhenameoftheconferencehadbeen

Changedtom`TheWOrldPopulationConference."）

ThethirdglobaUzedphenomenonwastheconfUsionmworldpoUticsthatfbUowedthefall

oftheBedinWallinl989、TheresulUngindependenceandlibemtionofracialandreUgious

tensionsresultedmacuteconnictsspreadingeverywhereontheglobeUkewildhremensof

Note20:Ehnich,P.,1968.7hePqDuIaliDnBbmb,BaIlantine1NewYolk・Note21:Meadows’、Ｈ､,andothe『s,1972.771eLjmHSIDGのMhbaReportbytheCIubofRome,sPIqectonthePIBdicament

ofManki､｡,APotomacAssociatesBook,Unive『seBook,ＮｅｗＹｏ｢k

Note22:Ehnich,PauIR・ａｎｄＡｎｎｅＨ、1990.7hePmutHIｿb、Ｅ)0pIosjbn,SimonandSchuster,ＮｅｗＹｏ『k、

1８

mmonsofrefUgeeshavenowlefttheirhomesmsearChofsafety

Dulingthisglobalizationofsocialdisordel；theThirdlntemationalPopulationand

DevelopmentConferencewascaUedmlenameoftheconferencehadagainbeenchanged

hPom‘`ThelnternationalPopulatio、Conference'，ｔｏ‘ThelnternationalConferenceon

PopulationandDevelopment，）

TheeAspectsoflhePopulationCIisis

Therearethreeimportantaspectstotheworldpopulationcrisisthatconfrontsthehuman

race,andtheseaspectsshouldnotbeconfUsed

Thehrstaspectisthepopulationgrowthmte;thesecondisthesizeoftheannualaddition

totheworldpopulation;andthethirdisthetotalglobalpopulation，Thesethreeaspectsresult

mmamomentumthatispecuUartopopulationphenomena.（Thephysicstermmertiaisused

metaphoricalbz)HoweveEwhentheprindpalfactorsofpopulationchange‐suchasbirths，

deathsandmigraUon‐arestableandchangesprogressSlowly）themomenhnnissosmallthat

wecanignoreitssocioeconomiceffects，

FirsnefsexanⅡnethegrowthrateoftheglobalpopulationmegrowthraUoofthewodd

populationreaChedq4percenton]yafterthelndushPialRevolution,Whichstartedmthemid‐

l8thcenturybInthelonghistorybefOrethattime,theratewasaremarkab]ylowO1percentor

1essThepopulationalternativelymcreasedanddecreasedthroughsuddenincreasesmthe

deathrateduetowarliamineordisease・ThegrowthmtehnallyachievedastablemcreaseahEr

thelndustrialRevolution・TheannualratewasO､４percentduringtherevolution,butgrewto

O､5percentmthehrsthalfofthel9thcenmrymnthehrstha]fofthe20thcenmryhowevel;it

markedahugeincreaset００．８percent

TheSecondWOrldWarmarkeｄａｓｉｇｎｉｈｃａｎｔｈａｌｆＷａｙｐｏｍｔａｓｗｅＵａｓanewpomtof

departurefOrthe20thcenturyDuringitslatterhamthegrowthrateofthewoddpopUlation

rosetoanincredib]yhighleveLInthehrsthalfofthel960s,theannualmteroseashighasL99

percenLandmthelatterha]freachedtheunprecedentedpeakmteof2・O4percenLThisngure

nnaUydrewtheattentionofscholarsandotherlearnedpeoPle,asweUasUNinstimtesand

otherinternationalorganizations・Fromaglobalstandpomt,theybecamemterestedinthe

uncommonspeedofthepopulationincrease・Shouldtheannualgrowthrateremainat2

percent,thepopulaUonwilldoublewithin35yearslnouresUmation,theworldpopulation

1９

reaChed5billionaroundl987;thus,ifthepopulationgrowsby2percentayeanitwiUreachlO

bimonm2020anｄ２０ｂｉｌＵｏｎｍ２０５７・

ItisnowestimatedthatlheannualgrowthrateoftheglobalpopulaUonhasitlllentoaround

L6percentConsideringthelevelofourcurrentbehavior;Systems,lEChnologiesandｗｅ]iare，

howeventhisrateisstiUtoohightoendurefOrlong、SomebeHevethisratewilllike]yChange

withinacentury(Cohen,1995)."）

ＩnsomeisolatedsocieUesorregions,ithasnotbeen,andindeedisnotDmrefOrtheannual

growth1aatetotemporalilyexceed2percentForexample,fOUowingtheSecondWMdWan

thepopulationsometimesgTewatanevenhighermtemthefbllowingAsiancounbPies:North

Korea(3.47%,19551960),SouthKorea(3.09%,19551960）,andThailand(3.0896,1965197D

SimilarexamplescanbefOundinLatinAmericancounbFies,particularyMexico(3.14%,1965

1970）andBrazil(3.1596,19501955)．InAhPicaeventoday>severalcountriesmaintainannual

growthratesofover3percent(UnitedNaUons,1995).24)Nomatterhowharditmayappeal；

solutionstoproblemsofincreasingpopulationmlimitedareas,eitherintheabovecounmesor

motherdomesticregions,a１℃expectedthroughtheeffOrtsoftheirresidentsandinternational

cooperationNevertheless,devisingeffectivecountermeasuresagainstsuddenpopUIation

mq1easesonaglobalbasisisverydifhcult,sinceit1℃qmresaworldwideconsensusandibrcefUl

measures・Thehumanracehasneverfacedaproblemofthisextent

ⅡthesepmblemsareconsideredmHghtoftheplanet'slimitedcapacitytosupportlmman

bemgs,itisdearthatsuchahighglobalpopulationgrowthratecannotbemaintainedfOrlong

SalkhasesUmatedthegrowthmteandtotalwoIldpopulationfOrthelongpeliodbetweenB､C

8000andAD8000q7igurel)．

Accordmgtohischart,theworldpopulationshiftsataroundlObimon,whilethegrowth

lnaterisesto2percentand,alterseveraldozenyearsatthemosLsudden]ydropsnearlytoa

standstillandremamsstable(Sa]k,1985).(蜜)Thissuggeststhatthecurrenthighpopulation

growthlatewiUnotendurefOrlong．

Note23:Cohen,JoeIE,1995.ＨｂｗＭａｎｙＰｂＤｐｌｅＣＺｍｔｈｅＥ白ﾉthSuhpo"２Ｗ.Ｗ・NoIton＆Company,NewYork,Ｐ25．

Note２４:UnitedNationsD1995WmbIPbpulallDnRospects:Ｔｈｅｌ９９４ＲｅⅥsion、

Ｎｏｔｅ２５:Salk,Jonas､1985.`W1eAlexlEi/ＤＩＭｿOnaﾉｙＳｌ巳pjhtheAscenlofManmtheCDsmosb"LeonaIdo,ＶｏＭ８,No.4,9.238．

ＲｏｍＷOrIdPopulationandHumanVaIues:ANewReality,NewYork,Harper＆ＲＯＷ，1981,byJonasSalkandJonaihanS副k、

2０

FiguretGIowthRateandTbtalWo｢IdPopulation

に）

1０２

Ｏｂｂ財叱

|Ｉ５ １

￣￣

6000４０００２０００ 2000４０００６０００８０００１０，０００

Ｂ,C･UＡｏＤ．

Sou｢Ｃｅ:JonasSalkI`TheNextEvolutiona『yStepinU1eAscentofManintheCosmos,，，Leona｢do,Ｖ０１．１８，No.401985,

ＰＰ２３８

Thesecondaspectoftheworldpopulationclisisisthesizeoftheannualincrease(nable2

andHgure2)．Duringthenrstha1fofthel950s,theavemgeannualaddiUontoU1eworld

populationwason】y47milUonHowever}３０yearslater;theavemgevaluesoaredDuringthe

45yearsbetweenl980and2025,theaverageannualadditionwiUtotal80or90mUEon、One

couldsaythattheannualadditionwiUreaChitshlsthugehistoricalpeakduringthis45year

penodAsmentioned,themostimportantpomtisthatagapof25yearsexistsbetweenthe

peakpopulationgrowthrateandthepeakannualadditionstotllepopulationmabsolutevalue

lnotherwords,thepeakofannualadditionsbegins25yearsafterthepeakmthegrowthmte

T11isisaresU]tofpopUlaUonmomentum,andcleadyshowsthatwecannotbesosureof

successmpopulationpoUdessimplybecausethepopulationgrowthrateisbeginningto

deCline．’Iheadditionstoworldpopulationdulingnext45yearsalreadytotals3850billion・

misiigureisapproaChing4bimo､,andisneallyeqUivalentmsizetothewoddpopulationm

l975、Withoutdoubt,thispopulationmcreaseofahnost90milUonperyearwiUseliouSly

inUuencefOod,housing,emPloymenLmedicalcare,weuaresystemsandtheenvironment

Thethirdaspectoftheclisisinworldpopulationisthesizeoftheworldpopulationitse1f

(mable2).Whenthepopulationbecomestoolarge,itfOrcesthehumanracetofacethelimits

ofourplanefscapacitytosupportmankind,aswehavenootherplacetoUve・HwillleadlD

2１

砲ble2,AnnualGrowthRateandWOrldPopulation(1950-2050）

Period

iXiiliiiW潔欄 A1gl:l1ihNMN儲｡Ｉ

０

串印酪わだ印餡卯妬伽砺⑩指如率加粥扣妬釦

靭譲瓢密恥蛎釦孵》》皿嘘叩啼哩唾哩畷”畷

１１１１１１１１１９２２２２２２２２２２

１

８５９４６３３３７９７９０９０９８６７１

７８９０９７７７５４３２２００８７６５５

０■ＯＧ０００■ｇ■●●■■□■●■Ｃｅ

１１１２１１１１１１１１１１１０００００

９５３９０５４７３３３６３８３３７９８２

の■●●⑪●●■●●、、■□０●●●■●

媚記印門泥泥印町妬鯛ｗｗｗ鍋副巧閖印記偲

Source:UnitedNationsWorldPOpulationPICspects:Ｔｈｅｌ９９４｢evision

Figure2DifferencebetweenGrowthRateandAdditionstoWbrldPopulation（FIoml950-1955to2045-2050）

195Ｕ

～５５

6０

－６５

７０

～７５

80

～８５

9０

－，５

2000

～Ⅱ５

1０

－１５

2０

－２５

劃〕

～３５

４０４５

－４５－(iＯ

2２

conUictsbetweentheearthandmankind,andbetweentheearthandalllivingthings・

Theworldpopulationamountedt０２．５biUionml950・However)asofl987ithaddoubled，

andby2050itwiUreaChlObilUonlnotherwords,worldpopulationwillquadruP1ewithmthe

centurybetweenl950anｄ２０５０

Ｔｈｅｗｏｒｌｄｐｏpulationexceeded5､７biUionml995;andihsannualadditionsneared90

mimon・ThesetwomdicesonthecurrentwoddpopulationaresufncientfOrustounderstand

theunusualnatureofthisincrease,whiChisunprecedentedmhumanhistory(Cohen,1995).“

Wieshouldnotethattheafbrementionedglobalpopulabionfiguresaremediumestimates

Theyarethemostprobablehguresandarebaseduponapreciseanalysisoftheprincipal

causesofrecentpopulationchangesThebirthratemparticularShouldbenoted,astheabove

estimationwasmadeontheassumplionthat,asofthemid-21stcentury(20402050)theTFR

(Ibtal凡rUUtyRate)wouldreachthereplacementlevelof2.10percent・Ahhoughtheavemge

TFRamongdevelopedcounhieshasa]readyfallentoL7qbelowthereplacementlevel，

developingcountliescontinuetomaintainasignihcantlyhighTFRof3.50．hSouthAsiathe

birthrateisremarkablyhigh,whUeAhicahasanexceptionahateof5.80.shouldcurrentfamily

planmngpolicies,whicharebeingvigorouSlypromote｡,iailtoworkasexpectedinthe

ibllowingfiftyyears,theglobalpopulationwillgreaqyexceedthemediumestimateandreaCh

thehighestimate.(m

Accordingtothehighestimate,theTFRinthepeliod2040-50wiUreach257・Thereis，

howevel；anotherestimationthatfOreseesbirthconrolmeasuresaChievingbetteFthanP

expectedresultsnlislowestimatefOrTFRinthepeliod204050is1.57．Thishgureiseven

lowerthanthecurrentavemgevalueofaUdevelopedcoun㎡es,1.70,whichwascalculatedhFom

datamthel99095period

Themaindifferenceinthesethreeestimatesisthebirthrate,because,aswiththedeath

rate,alltheseestimaUonsassumeahxedratefbrcalculationInthepeliodbetween2045and

2050,theaverageliiespanatbirthisspecihedas74､7yearsfbrmale,７９．６yealsfOrfemaleand

77､１yearsontheavemgefOrbothsexes,Theresultsofabovethreeestimationsareshownin

Note２６:Cohen,JoelE,1995．HbwManyPbOp/ｅＣＺＷｈｅＥａｍＳｕｌｑＰｏｎ２Ｗ.Ｗ､ＮＣﾊﾟｏｎ＆Company,NewYork.ｐ２５．Note２７:Bongaarts,John’1995.PopulalionGmwlhScenariosandPoIicyOpticns,paperprintedfortheUNUConferenceonthe

SustainableFutu｢eoftheG1obalSystem,Tokyo,16-1BOctoberl995・ｐｌＯＴｈｅｑｕｏtedwondpopulationestimatesf｢omthelnternationallnsUtuteforAppliedSystemsAnalysisallowIO「aslowdecreaseinthehighbirIhIatesofdeveIopingcounlTies,AccoldingtotheUnitedNationsmediumestimateof９．８billionin2050,theIlASAfigureofl1.3

ｂⅢionisremarkablebecauseitisveryclosetothehighesIimateofll9billionmadebytheUnitedNaIions.(ⅡASAfiguIeWolfgaLuts(ed):TheFuh-IIBPopulationGangoftheWorld:WhatCanWeAssumeTodaWLondcn,19941EaIthscanPubIicaljonsIbrlnternationalInstituteIOrAppliedSystemsAnalysis)．

２３

T)able3andFigure3・

Accordingtothemediumestimate,thewoddpopulationwiUexceed98bimonm2050・

WiUtheearth'scapacitytosupportlifereaChaceiUngatlObimon?T11ishgureisoftenreierred

toasatalgetfOrthebasicsofhumansurvival,mcludingfOod,dailyneedsandtheenvironment

TheｈｉｇｈｅsUmate,incompanson,suggestsexceptionaUyhighnumberｓｌｎ２０５０,fOr

WhichthemediumestimateisneadylObilUon,thehighestimatereaChesahnostl2bimon・

T11edifferencebetweenthesetwoestimatesexceeds2bilUon.、otherwords,ifthepopUlaUon

increasedoesnotslowtothemediumvalue,weShouldpreparefOrhugegrowth・

Inthemeantime,ifbirthconhDlworksbetberthanexpectedmthemediumestimate,and

theTFRmthemidP21stcenturyitlUsto1.6,ｔｈｅｗorldpopulaUonwiUreachitspeakat7,960

mimonin2040andthenstartdecreasmglnthatcase,thewoddpopulationm2040willbe

closetothemediumestimateof7､89billionfbrtheyear2020

InthesethreeUnitedNationsestimates,thedifferencebetweenthehighestandthelowest

isonlyl54mimonm2000,inspiteofthedifferentcondiUonsrespectivelyadoptedbymedium，

highandlowestimatesButm2020,thedifferenceexceedslbilUon,andfUrthermore,reaches

４bimonby2050ThisenormousadditionalnumberwiUbecreatedmerelybecauseofa

differenceinTFR-tllatis,dependmgonWhetherTFRdecreasest０１．５７mthe2040-50period

ordecreasesｏｎｌｙｔｏ2.57．Putsucdnctly>thisgapmpopulationdependsonwhethereaCh

womanbeamsonemorechUdinherlifeornot

ThehumanracehastheabovelhreechoicesfOrtheconnngsevemldecades,andamong

themthemediumestimaterepresentsthemostprobablehgures、HoweveBeventhismedium

estimatewasmadeonthepremisethattheworldpopulationreacheslObilHonm2050.T11is

hgureisstiUtoolargetobeoptimisticinviewoftheplanefscapadtytosupportlifeorthe

potentialfOreXpandingfOodsuppUes、Suchanexhaordinarygrowthinpopulationmayendm

hagedMuetouniOrtunatemddentssuchasiamines,epidemicsofinfectiousdiseases,warsor

othercalamitiesofnaturethatwillimpedethisgrowth

WOIldpopulationhasbeengrowingrapid]ysmcethedawnofhistory〉anditisquiteobvious

thatsuchgmFowthcannotcontinuemdehnite]yOnlytwowaysofresoMnglhisproblemexis上

asstatedabove,oneislDendthedistressingselfdestructionresultinghFomuncon杜oUed

populationincrCases・ＴｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｉｓｔｏｎｎｄａｗａｙｏｕｔthroughtheeffOrtsofall,bylaunchinga

globalChallengetoachievethosehguresrepresentedbythelowesUmatethroughhumanitys

mtemgenceandresolve

Thegrowthrateoftheworldpopulation‐thehrstiactormthepopulationcrisｉｓ－ｈａｓ

2ヰ

Table3EstimatedWorldPopulation,1950-2050:medium,highandlowestimates

lnmiIlions

RatioagainstMediumVariantlOO

DiffeIcncefrom

MediumVarianｔYear Medium High Low

ＨｉｇｈＬｏｗＨｉｇｈ Low

０００００００００００

５６７８９０１２３４５

９９９９９００００００

１１１１１２２２２２２

０１７４５８２８１８３

狸巫麹櫟翅鏥油魎”醐麹

２５２０

３０２１

3697

4444

５２８５

６２３５

７２７４

８３９２

9567

10734

11912

2520

3021

3697

4444

5285

6081

6791

7372

7781

7959

7918

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

101.3

104.0

106.4

110.３

１１５２

１２１．２

０００００８６５７４５

０００００８６３９５０

０００００９９９８８８

１１１１１

０００００７２４６６９

７９０９１７

２５８４０１２

０００００７１６０９５

７４１９５１

－２５８３９

－壹皀１１・・

Source:FmmtheUnitedNations:Ｗb”PopulallbnPrDspectsJ7he7gg平Revisjbn

NoteEstimatedto1990,proiectedalte｢2000

Figure3EstimatedFutu｢eWOrldPopulation(High,mediumandlowestimates）1950-2050

利、側卯釦、⑪卯釦犯鴻

１１１

〆諄烹i三三三三f二LrrIE二

1950６０７０８０知２０００１０２０３０４０２０５０

continuedtodecreasegradually）thoughithasnotyetdecelemtedenoughA1thoughwemust

continuewolkingtobringitdown,wecansafeIysaythatthesimationisChangingmouriavoⅨ

Theothertwofactorsconhibutingtothiscrisisare,however;pmblematical､Asexplained，

thesetwofactorsrepresenttheenormousannualaddiUonstothepopulationandthetotalsize

oftheglobalpopulation・OneoftheSpecihcaUyhnportantelementsofpopulationpoUcyisthat

2プ

theannualadditionstothepopulationwillremainbetween80and90milUonduringtheconnng

30yealsorsoEquaUyimportantisthatavoidmgthismcreaseisahnostimpossible,asitresults

hPomlhemomentumofpopulaUon

Thissimationmustbeconsideredanemergency)againstWhichglobalcountermeasures

Shouldbetakenassoonaspossible・MerepoUciesdevisedbynaUonsorraceswiUnotsufnce；

itwiUbenecessarytodevisemeasurestosecureaUpassengersonSpaceShipEarthand

preservetheircoexistence・Ｏｎｔｈｅｏｎｅｈａｎｄ,epoChal,comprehensivemeasuresshouldbe

carriedoutinthesocial，economic，culmmlandpoliticalarenas・Ｏｎｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｈａｎｄ，

revo1utionarymeasuresmustbeimplementedmtheheldofbirthcontrolThecriticalissueis

thattheseglobalmeasuresmustachievegoodresultswithmonly30yea1ns．

Caim:mleLastPopulationConfbrcnceofdle20thCennnry

EXceptfOrtheriskofnuc1earwaMhebiggestissuefacinghumanityistocontrolworld

populationgrowthMostofthedifHcultiesthathumanityfacestodayaredeeplyrootedmthe

excessivesizeandgrowthofthewoddpopUlation･Thosedifhcultiesmduderapid

consumplionofrenewableresources，deleteriousenvironmentalchangessuChasviolent

Climatechange,andrisingmternationaltensions・Theyaretightlyboundtothepopulation

issue.(鋼

FbUowingtheconibrencesinBucharestml974andMexicoCiWinl984,theInternational

ConferenceonPopulationandDevelopmentqCPD)washeldmCairoml994．Duringthis

brief20yearperiod,thewodd'spopulationpolicieshaddevelopedremarkablyGHoweveEan

extraordinaryincidenttookplaceshortlybefOretheconferenceinCairo:theworldpoHtical

systemshadcollapsed

TheCairomeetingwasuniquemthatitwasthelastconierenceonworldpopulaUonmUle

20thcentury;moreovel;itwasheldmthemidstofanextremelyunusualwoddsituationnis

noteworthythatthethreatofnuclearwanWhiChhadmenacedthehumanmce,recededwhen

theColdWarendedduetothecoUapseoftheSovietUnion、Ｏｎｔｈｅｏｎｅｈａｎｄ,itputthe

populationexplosion，onceconsideredsecondary〕ａｔｔｈｅｆＯｒｅｈｏｎｔＯｎｔｈｅｏｔｈｅｒｈａｎｄ，

howevenregionaldisorderfOUowinｇｔｈｅｅｎｄｏｆｔｈｅＣｏｌｄＷａｒｃｒｅａｔｅｄａｄｉversionthat

Note2B:EhrIich,ＰａｕｌＲａｎｄＡｎｎｅＨ.,1990.777ePbpulalibnE)QDlosjbn,SirmnandSchuster,ＮｅｗＹｏ｢k,ｐｐｌ８．

2６

diminishedrecognitionofthepopulationcrisis

ThiscomplicaUonmtheworldsituationmustbethoroughlyundelstoodasannnportant

premisethatchalactelizedtheCairomeetingThisconferencewasoutstandmgbecause,m

short,itaChievedanepochallevelofdevelopmentandadvancement,hlrexceedingthoseofthe

BuCharestandMexicoCityconierences

OneoftheachievementswasrelatedtotheWOddPopulationPlanofAction(ＷPPA)，

WhiChwasadoptedmBucharestandreinfbrcedinMexicoCityThis"Htz〃ofAIa趣,，ｗａｓ

developedmtothe“ ,，duringthemeetingltisimportantthatamaiorityﾋﾞｲ、ﾛｯ、12碗ｅＤｆＡ

consensuswasachievedfOrthefOrmulationofadetailedprogramthatmdudedallprocesses

hPomplannmgtoexecution,andthatlsulplismgly)itscontentwasagreedupon・

ThesecondachievementoftheCairogatheringwasthattheconlerenceincorporated

shFategicdevelopmentsmtoitspopulationpoUdesAsmdicatedinthenameofthisConference，

populationanddevelopmentcannotbeseparatedMalkingthispomt，theparticipants

discardedtheoldnarrowconceptofpopulationpoHdesandinsteadincomorateddevelopment

policiesasafimdamentalelementthatindirecUyaffectsdemogmPhicphenomena

Nonetheless,advicewasonb7givenwithregardtopopulationpoHcymanarrowsense,suchas

improvementofthedeathrate,andiewpoUticalsuggestionsweremadeonotherdemogmphic

phenomena,suchasbirlhralBandmigration

Thethirdachievementwasthestartofadiscussionintheconierenceontheempowennent

ofwomenmordertoredehneandreconstructpopulationpoUcies・SpecihcaUybalandmalk

shlategy‐termed``TheEmpowermentofWOmen，，‐wassuggestedThissuggestionwillbe

discussedmdetaillaterB

ThefOurthfactorthatcharacterizedthegathelingofCairowastheadoption,ａｓproposed

duringtheconlerence,of20yearsasthepopulationlimitfOrtheProgrammeofAction、This

wasaveryunportantsuggestionAspomtedoutealliermthisessay,thecoming30yeams

ShouldberegardedaslhemostcriUcalperiodfOrpopulationissues，andsuitable

countermeasuresmustbewolkedoutfOrthisperiod,The20yearUmitintheCairosuggestion

canbeconsideredtocorrespondtothis30ごyearstlategy

Thehfthachievementwastheparticipationofmanynon-governmentalolganizations

OIGOs）intheconierence,beginningwiththemeetingsofitspreparatoryconⅡnittee、

Similarly)ｍａｎｙｇovernmentalrepresentativestookpartmthisconierenceaswell・Unlikethe

BucharestorMexicoCityconlerences,participationmactivitieswasenthusiasUcmCairo

ManyNGOsheldtheirmeetingsinCairoconcurrentlywithgovemmentalmeetings,ａｎｄ

2７

submittedtheirsuggestionstogovernmentalrepresentaUves・ItwasexceptionalthatnonP

governmentalolganizationsandprivategroupsshowedsuChextremeinterestman

mtergovernmentalconlerenceandachlallyimplementedtheiractiviUes,althoughwomen's

concernsinthisconierencemayhavebeendirecUyemphasizedbythetheme，sfOcuson

women，sissues

Thethemeindudedsubiectsofimmediateinteresttowomen,suchasreproductivehealth

andresolulionofgenderdisclimination、Althoughitwasexceptional,weshouldappreciate

thaLbyathnctingtheattentionofsomanypeoPle,thismeeUngwasanimportantstepin

promotingunderstandmgofglobalproblems．

EmpowermentofWbmen

ARevolutionaｒｙＳＵだⅡtegyonPOpuladionandDevelOpmenL

TheempowermentofwomenwasanevolutionaryconceptthatestabUshedthebasisofthe

Caimconierence,Itwasanatbempttoprovidebroadpowertowomeninordertopromotetheir

participationinthenewdevelopmentandprogressofsocietyBNeedlesstosayWomen，sissues

hadbeentakenupateveryinternationalmeeUngasauniversaltheme,groundedinhuman

rights,ａｓｗｅＵａｓｔｈｅｓｔａｔｕｓｏｆｗｏｍｅｎ,genderequalitymeconomicandpoUticalactivities，

gendePbasedroleassignmentinthehome,andsoonHowevel;thesesUbjectsweredealtwith

hFagmentarilyandviewedasmdividualproblemsrelatedonlytoaspecihcarea・ThereiOre，

thosediscussionscouldnotgivemuchmorethantheimpressionthatallsuggestionswere

reasonable・

AhlndamentalachievementoftheCairoconferencewastochangetheverticalrelationship

betweenmenandwomen,WhichimpUesthatawomanShouldserｖｅａｍａｎ,intoaholizontal

relationshipthatviewswomen'ssocialexistenceasequaltothatofmenThemostnoteworthy

pomtofthisconierencewasthatitrecognizedtheimportanceofachievingequalrightsfbrboth

sexes,andthatitdehnedthesystennzationofcorrectiveactionfOrgenderdisparityasa

stmtegyfOrpursuingsustainablesodaldevelopmentThisattemptdeserveshighpraise

TheconferencereferredtotheovemUimprovementofwomen，ｓｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎａｓｔｈｅ

``empowennentofwomen.,,T11isconceptcomp1isesfOurelements:social，economicand

politicalaspects,andtheheldofhealthcare・Improvingwomen，sposibionintheseareasisonly

natu1aal,andaccordswiththeprinciplesofsocialmorals・Atthesametime,thisimprovement

2３

isalsoessentialfOrcontinuedhumandevelopment,aswasrevealedinthemtegmtedstrategic

hnmeworkof"empowermentofwomen.”

SomecountrieshavealreadyachievedremaIkableimprovementinthestatusofwomenIn

suchcountries,manywomenhaveenteredthelabormarket;afemaleeUtehasarisentoplay

anactivepart;andwomenareelUoymggTeaterparticipationinpolitics・Whilethesecountries

arCthusrecordingsignihcantdevelopments,mostdevelopingreglons‐whichaccountfOran

overwhelmmgShareoftheworldpopulation‐havenotrehevedthesuffelingoftheirwomen，

ｗｈｏｈａｖｅｂｅｅｎｒｄｅｇatedtoadismal]ylowposition、Thesewomenarefacmgacrisisof

overwolkthatisseriouslyaflectingtheirlives,healthandweliare、InsocieUeswherefemale

infantsarenotreceivedwarmlybwomenareseriouslyabusedandevensubjectedtosuch

tmgediesasabortionandinfanUcideAccordmgtoareceｎｔｒｅｐｏｒｔｏｎｌｎｄｉａｂｙＵＮＩＣＥＦ

(UnitedNationsChildren'sFund),thenumberofgillsageduptohveyearsoldwasl4mUhon

fewerthanmthecensusofl991、Thishgurerepresentsthetotalofeightstates,wherethe

numberofgirlsperlOOboysinthatagerangeisconsiderablylessthanlndia，snationalaverage

msmeansthat1.4ｍimongillshadsomehowdisappeare｡,aiactthatseemsdifhcUltto

comprehend.("）

Anotherunbelievablehndmgisthedemeaningcustomoffemalegenitalmutilation(FCM)，

WhichhasbeenfOundtobeprevalentin28counmesinAhica,somenationsmtheAmbian

Peninsula,andamongsomennnoritiesmAsialtisesUmatedthatbetweenlOOmim0nandl32

mimonwomenaUvetodayhavebeensubjectedtothispracUce,anditisbelievedthateven

todayitisperfbrmedonmorethan2mimonwo、enperyearBThisreprehensiblecustomcan

beregardedasoneofthemostextremeexamplesofinhumananddiscriminatingpmctices

againstwome､.(3【ル

IntheCairoconierence,onerepresentativedeniedtheexistenceofFGM・Nonetheless,it

issaidthataTVdocumentaryprogmmonthecircumcisionofatenyeamldgirlinhiscountry

wasairedduringtheconierenceperiodltisalsosaidthat,ｅｖｅｎtoday,FGMislegaland

professionalsarepermttedtoofferthisserⅥCe．。３１）

Thisshowsthat,hPomaglobalpointofviewbtheslzlmsofwomencannotbeeasi]yimproved、

ThemosteffectivemethodfOrempowenngwomeniseducation，TheUniversal

Note2g:ＵＮ１ＣＥＦ(UnitedNationsChildrenFund)1995.771ｅＰｍｇｒＢｓｓｏｆ/ndianSlalBs,lndiaCounUyOffice,UNlCEFHouse，

NewDelhi,lndia,pp56-60

Note30:Kiragu,Ｋａ｢ungari,1995.MFerTnIeGenitalMutilation:ＡＲｅｐ｢oductiveHealthConcem,"PopulationReports,supplement

toPopulationReports，ＭeetingtheNeedsofYoungAduIts，ＳｅｎｅｓＪ，No.４１，Vol、XXIⅡ，No.３，October1995

PopulatjonInIb｢mationP｢ogIam↑JohnsHopkinsCenterfOrCommunicationPIograms,Baltimo｢ｅＩｐｐｌ－４．

2９

DeClamtionofHumanRightsofnearly50yearsagoemphasizedthat"everyonehastheright

toeducalion.'，AttheWOrldConierenceonEducationfOrA11heldinJomUen,Thailand,、1990,

eachparticipaUnggovernmentofhciaUypromisedtocreateacompulsoryeducaUonsystemto

provideabasiceducation．HoweveBthenumberofimtemtepeoPleintheworldisnow960

mimon;moreovel;two-thirdsofthemareiemale、Therearel30milHonchildrennotenroUed

manelementaryeducationsystem,７０percentofWhoma1℃female.(32）

Itisessentialthatweincreasewomen'seducationaloppormnitiesandeducationallevelto

thoseofmen,mordertoensurewomen,spotentialissufncientlyexercisedmthesocial，

economicandpoUticalsPheres・Althoughwomen，sparticipationmthesethreeareashad

generaUybeenemphasized,theCairoconierencewasnotableinitsmdusionof"reproductive

healthandlights,'，Whichcreatedanintegratedandnovelhamework．

SuggestionsonRepmductiveHeamlCare

ManycounhiesdonothavethesuincientcapabiUty〉faciHtiesorstafftoprovidep【Dper

medicalcarefbrPhysicalorme､talconditionsrelatedtopregnancyanddeUverybandwhiChare

thereibrCuniquetowomenSincepregnancy)deUveryiandraisingachHdarelifelongtaSks

assignedexclusivelytowome､,societyhasthesignihcantresponsibiHtytoensuretheirhealth

AttheCairoconierence,thisissuewascomprehensivelyconceptualizedasrepmductive

health・Theｗｏｒｄ"reproductive，，washerelinkedwith``health,，'whichearlierhadbeendehned

byWH０．TheiOUowingisthedehnitionof"reproductivehealth”asdehnedbytheCairo

Papers:“）

Ｒ”?10“c"z）e〃eαﾉ肋おasmteq/CO”ん”ﾉiysjazJ”c"､Jα"`sDcjnMﾉcﾉ1beｊ"gα"｡"０，２８鋤

鋺eabse"cczlfuﾉjse(zscoγﾉﾘ‘ﾉｧｼｿ"ｊｉＷ〃α〃”α蛇）qwlBﾉﾋz”ｇ〃仇ｅ””伽C胸eSjls彫腕α"‘〃た

ん"c幼"sα"”"cgssgs．

Ｒ”'ＭＩＣ"t）e〃ｍＪｊＭＵｅ７匂b””pjjbs肋atpe⑰Jea”αb陀加ﾉiaDeasatfs6/j麺α"`SCH/bsE2r肱

α"d伽'肋GツルJDC肋ec⑰ａＭｉｔｙ勿伽"伽Ceα"`伽施edD腕mdecjt北蔽仙e"ａＭﾉMDO/ＩB"わ

⑰s０．１"Wjbjtj"肋MZstcO"d伽"α”ﾊﾞﾉbe'１１８ﾉjtq/・加e"α"｡“池eｿ@ｍbe伽”“α"｡〃ﾊﾛDC

Note３１：RefertoKiraguostheo｢y,ｐｐ３ｉｎｐｂⅥousarticle･

Note３２:UnitedNaIions，1994.ＰｍｇｒａｍｍｅｏｆＡｃｔｉｏｎｏＩＩｈｅＵｎｉｔｅｄＮalionslntemaIionaIConfe｢enceonPopuIalionandDevelopment,unoIIiciaIinIbrmationveIsion,asadopIedbytheConferenceatCai｢oonTuesday,１３September1994．

Note３３:Ｆｒｏｍthe『efe｢ence｢Tnte｢ialoflheUnitedNations,Ｎｏｔｅ３２．

３０

access〃s[施倣cﾉﾉDC,〔Z〃bれわb化α”αcc⑰､肱沈e腕odsq/ﾌｶ腕my，ﾉﾋz""ｊ麺ｑｆｊＭγ伽“(zsz(ﾉ`ノノ

czsO腕”"c”ぬ６ＷｿｉｅｊγcﾉiOjCcか翅wjzz吻"qﾊﾞﾉｾγ〃ﾉｶﾉzUﾉljclwwOomgm)0s'仇eAzz4wOd腕eﾌﾞﾍigﾉbノ

qnz"ESSね吻伽ソ日ｉｎ蛇ﾉｉｅａｊ肋αz”s”z)jces抗ａｔz(ﾉﾉﾉﾉe"αb化z(jD”c〃mgDscZ/tbMlz”“加廻"α"ピッ

α"｡cﾉｶ”bか幼α"d伽z）伽〃”JBS〃妨仇ebestcﾉiα"ceq/・〃αpﾉﾉＺｇａｈｍﾉﾉｿ!yj腕"ｋ

Ｊ)@J〃cz(ﾉ鋤幼ｅａＭＭＥﾉﾃ"ｊ肋"q/”"“c"t）ｅｈｍ肱Ｒ２ｐｿＭｄ耐tﾉｅＨｂａ肋Ｑｚ”た〃"〃(ｚｓ

肋ecwOsjUﾉﾉﾋz幼"q/加c伽｡s,花Cl０噸"esqw`se”jCgs伽'“"""蛇〃””伽伽e〃caJ的α"`〃e”

be蝿娩勿妙，，wﾉF"ﾉﾉｸqga"dso/D蝿”わ“伽c〃eαﾉﾉｿWob肥''@sb

nshouldbenotedthatthedetailsofreproductivehealthcareencompassfamilyplanmng

lnmanydevelopingcountries,themortaliWratefOriniantsandyoungchildren,andevenfOr

mothers,isexhPemelyhighMoreoveI;theabortionrate,whetherlegalorillegal,ｉｓhigh・

Consideringthatmanywomenmthosecounbriesarelosmgtheirreproductiveabmtyduetothe

sequelaofabortion,themeanmgandroleof``reproductivehealth，，issignihcant.(現）

EstabUshingP叩ukmonmn轡ets

OnedistinctiveieatureoftheCairomeetingwasthegoalofcurrentpopulationpoucies

estabUshedfOr2015．Inotherwords,tllesepoUciesareexpectedlDcometohuitionwithin20

yearsofl995・NotablybtargetsfOrpopulationimprovementwerepresented，main]yin

connectionwithdeathmtes.(35D

ＴhetalgetswerefOUowing；

1)toimprovethedeathratesothattheaveragehumanlilespanwouldexceed75yearsofage

by2015

2)toreducethemortalitymteofinfantsandchildrenunderhveyearsofageto35orfewerper

LOOObirthsby2015.

3)tobringdownthedeathrateofeXpectantandnursmgmothe】Bto60orfewerbor75oriewer

incountrieswithhighdeathrates,per1,000birthsby2015

4)thataUpeoplemneedShouldbeabletoenjoyreproductivehealththroughprimaryhealth

ｃａｒｅ．

Ｎｏｔｅ３４:MedicalIyjheissueof｢eproductiveheallhispa｢toranimportantplanforcomp｢ehensivefe『tilitymedicalca｢e､KuIoda

Toshio:"AnaIysisofEmpowe『ment(OutlineofChapterl),'，FemaleEmpowe『mentinAsia,fmmtheHumanandDeveIopment,Ｖ01.20,AsiaPopulationandDevelopmentAssociation(1996,pp､9-16,parIicularyppl3P14）

Ｎｏｔｅ３５:MinistryofHeaIthandWeIfare,InstituteofPopulationPmblems，１９９５IntemationaIConferenceonPopulationand

DevelopmentatCaiIo(Cal｢oConIe『Bnce)ResearChMatenaINo､282,ｐｐｌＯ－１２

３１

OnlythesefOurtargetswerepresentedattheconierence・SincethefOurthonecannotbe

caUedaquantitativetarget,ｏｎｌｙthree,whichconcerneddeathmtes,wereleftasquantitative

talgetswithspecihchgures・Itshouldbenotedthatnotargetvalueswerepresentedregardmg

birthmteorpopulationgrowthrate・Asamatterofcourse，nocountliescontestedthe

mprovementofthedeathrate;howeverbeachcountryhasitsownapproachtopolicymaking

andtalgetvaluesrCgardingbirlhsandpopulationincreases・MoreoveEthesetalgetsa1℃

deeplyaffectedbysubUereligiousandracialattitudesSincetheBuCharestgatheringofl974，

adormantconhontationhasexistedbetweendevelopedanddevelopingcounhriesregardmg

tal宮etsetting,andthepotentialfOrdiscordregardingthistopicissoserlousastorendertmgeC

settingvirtuallytaboo．

Conclusion:SeekingaG10balⅥewpoint

ThelastlnternationalConferenceonPopulationandDevelopmentofthe20thcentury〉

heldinCairo,byfarsurpassedthemeetingsmBuCharestandMexicoCity)sinceitresolved

ⅥewsonstrategiesandchallengesfOrthe21stcenturymtisworthnotingthatthismeeting

mhPoducedatheoreticalhFameworｋｔｏｐｕｔｗｏｍｅｎ，whoaccountfOronehalftheworld

population,onanequalfbotingwithmen．'mishameworkwasunprecedentedmhistoryand

canevenbecalledtheresultofarevolutioninconsdousness･

Nonetheless,theresultsoftheCairomeetingimplytoomanyuncertainfactorstobe

acceptedandimplementedbyallrdigions,races,andculturesrepresentingthepeoplesofthe

wolld

Thepopulationphenomenaofbirths，deathsandmigrationcreatespecimpopulation

problemsthroughtheirsocial,economic,culturalandreHgiousmteractionsConsequenUy）

populationproblemscanbecomeremarkablycompHcatedanddive館se・Thisleadsto

indMdualityandpecuUarityineachpopulationproblemandtodifncultymthesearchfOr

inter､ationalagreementsPopulationpoUciesaredifferentiatedbynationsandbyreUgious

beUefS

Furthermore，nosuggestionsmadeatUmtedNationsconlerencescanbeenfOrced

Besides,itisinevitablethatthecontentandprioritiesoftheProgmmmeofActionintheCairo

PapersmaybeChangedtoaccordwithpolidesorbudgetaUocationPlansmeachcountry

Themostsignihcantmatterishoweachparticipanthomrespectivegovernments

ｊ２

understoodtheProgranⅡneofActioninCairo,andwhetheranyconcreteactionwillbetaken

regardingmethodsofexecution

PopulationproblemsdifierbynaUonandregion,andresultmvaliedpopulaUonpolicies

SomecountriesevenmsistthattheydonotneedpopulaUonpoUcies・ConsidelingthesefactＯＩＳ，

whethertochoose"populaUonordevelopmenf，isahighlyrelevantquestion・

ItisnecessarytopromotetheconceptofSpaceshipEarthtocopewiththecoming30years

ofmpidpopulationincrease・HumanbemgsmustrevolutionizetheirwayofthinkingBy

strugghngwilhtheseproblems,theywiUhavetorepeatedlyaSkonedifhcultquesUon-``How

canIachievethis?，，

ユヨ

ucharesttc CairoFrom Ｂ ０

－－ZOYearsofUnitedNationsPopulationConferences-

D1zTbshioKuroda

THEASIANPOPULATIONANDDEVELOPMENTASSOCIATION(FOUNDATION)(ＡＰＤ.Ａ､）

３FCollins3Bldg,1-5-lShilljuku,Shinjuku-ku,Tokyo,I60Japan

TEL(03)3358-2211ＦＡＸ(03)3358-2233

E-mai1addlCss：apda[yqj＠goLcom

’

轡 川|姫 リム'三DⅢ－－アペー

ＴＨＥＡＳＩＡＮＰＯＰＵＬＡＴＩ（

AssocIATIoN（ＡＰ，

UnitedNations

POpulationFund

ＯＮＡＮＤＤＥＶＥＬＯＰＭＥＮＴ

Ｉ(FOUNDATION）

》・ＤＡ.）