Designing Low Carbon Society: Methodology for Development of Roadmaps toward Low ... · 2018-06-29 · Methodology for Development of Roadmaps toward Low Carbon Society by Backcasting

Designing Low Carbon Society:

Methodology for Development of Roadmaps toward

Low Carbon Society by Backcasting

Shuichi Ashina（芦名秀一）

National Institute for Environmental Studies （国立環境研究所）

http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/ http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/

「低碳能源社會與經濟」教育訓練（二）

2012年5月30日（星期三）@中華經濟研究院

http://www.lowcarbon-asia.jp/

Self-introduction:

The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model

• AIM is an abbreviation of Asia-Pacific Integrated

Model.

• It is one of Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), and

a large-scale computer simulation model developed

to promote the integrated assessment process in the

Asia-Pacific region

• Collaborated study by Japan, China, India , Korea,

Thailand and Malaysia members.

• The AIM project is started in July 1990, and began an

international collaboration system from 1994.

12/05/30 2

1990

1994 1997

2001

2004 2006

2007 2008

2010 2009

AIM ERI(China), IIM(India), MoE

(Indonesia) , Seoul U (Korea)

Japan LCS Project

(FY2004-FY2008)

Japan-UK Joint Project

(FY2006-FY2007)

Asia LCS Project

(FY2009-FY2015)

JST/JICA SATREPS Project

(FY2011-FY2015)

LCS-RNet

(FY2009-)

AIT

Malaysia

COP3

Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam

2050 Low Carbon Society

2011

Training workshop at

COP8, India

AIM project started

Self-introduction: History of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)

12/05/30 3

Model World

Self-introduction: AIM is Model

Impact/Adaptation Model

Emission Model

【Country】

【Global】

【Enduse model】

【Economic model】

【Account model】

【sequential dynamics】

【dynamic optimization】

【Local/City】

Agriculture

Water

Human

health

Simple Climate Model

Other Models

future society

Population Transportation Residential

GHG emissions

temperature

【Global】【National/Local】

feedback

AIM/Impact

[Policy]

Burden

share Stock-flow

mid-term target

IPCC/WG3

IPCC/WG2

IPCC/integrated scenario

carbon tax

long-term vision

Accounting adaptation

low carbon scenario

Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building, ... Real World

12/05/30 4

Comprehensive comparison of Top-down

and Bottom-up approach • Top-down approach

Computational General Equilibrium model of macro-economic

relations inside a country and with other countries

Models in this type emphasize economy-wide

• Bottom-up approach

technology-rich description of energy system, options and costs

(partial equilibria)

feature sectoral and technological details

There are a lot of Hybrid models which combines the two approach

through coupling: part of the CGE economy is described by a bottom up

model.

This is just “DICHOTOMY” of the approaches!

12/05/30 5

Overview of relationship among approaches

Common Scenario Assumptions

•Economic growth

•Population

•International fuel prices

•Environmental constraints

Bottom-up model

(AIM/Enduse,

ESS, etc)

Top-down model

(AIM/CGE, etc)

Aggregation

and calculation Sector output level,

Energy price

Service demand,

Fuel price

Aggregation

and calculation

Technology and

fuel mix, Energy

demand, cost

Energy efficiency

improvement,

Additional

investment

Source: Based on Xu, Y., Jiang, K. and Masui, T. (2007). “CGE Linkage with AIM/Enduse: Assessing Energy Intensity Reduction Target in

China”, 13th AIM Int’l WS, Tsukuba.

GHG Inventory

Energy balance table Input-Output table

Mainly focused on

Economy-wide

Technology,

Energy

12/05/30 6

AIM models for projection of GHG

emissions from Top-down approach AIM/CGE model:

• General Equilibrium model

• Draws the balanced macro economy, based on social

conditions such as population, technology and preference,

countermeasures

• Programming language: GAMS (The General Algebraic

Modeling System)

• Skills required: Macroeconomics (esp. IO analysis),

Mathematics (esp. partial differentiation)

12/05/30 7

AIM models for projection of GHG

emissions from Bottom-up approach AIM/Enduse model:

• Partial equilibrium model on energy

• Assess individual technologies under the detail technology selection

framework

• Programming language: GAMS (The General Algebraic Modeling System)

• Skills required: Microeconomics, Mathematics (esp. Linear Optimization

theory), and Energy and System Engineering.

AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool (ESS):

• Snapshot-type tool at a certain point (non-optimization)

• Assess energy balance and GHG emissions among sectors simultaneously

• Programming language: MS Excel (purely spreadsheet-based tool)

• Skills required: Basics of Energy Balance Table

12/05/30 8

2020 2050 2000

Long-te

rm ta

rget y

ear

Technology development, socio-economic change projected by historically trend

Forecasting

Back-casting

Normative target world

Reference future world

Service demand change

by changing social behavior, lifestyles

and institutions

Mitigation Technology

development Required Policy intervention and Investment

required intervention policy and measures

Env

iron

ment

al p

ress

ure

Requ

ired

int

erv

ent

ion

3. We need

“Innovation”

to realize visions

2. We need

“Visions”

1.”Target”

is tough 50% reductions

In the world

Designing Low Carbon Society Scenario:

Backcasting Approach

12/05/30 9

To Understand Backcasting Approach: How to achieve Low-Carbon Life?

Popularization of

Environment

buildings

Navigation

System

Support for live

Efficiency Improvement

Construction

Skills Design Skills

Communization and Standardization of technical know-how

Tax benefits for aggressive company for LCS Building

Obligation and

regulation

LC-Life

Eco-Labeling

Support for Choice

Financing

Tax benefits,

subsidy,

reimburse

Support for Purchase

Transition to service

Consumption lifestyle

Anytime, Anywhere

Appropriate Applicances

Comfortable and Green

Built Environment

Policy

Policy Policy

12/05/30 10

Green buildings

Self-sustained city

Decentralized services

Eco awareness

Effective communication

Dematerialization

Next generation vehicles

Efficient transportation system

Advanced logistics

19

90

20

00

20

20

20

50

20

10

BaU scenario

Intervention

scenario

EE improvement

New energy

Energy saving

Structure change

Life-style

change

Tech. innovation

Urban structure IT-society

Techno-Socio Innovation Study

GHG reduction target （eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level）

Evaluate feasibility of

GHG reduction target

Long-term

Scenario

Development

Study

Develop socio-

economic scenario,

evaluate counter-

measures using

econ-techno models GH

G e

mis

sio

n

Middle-term

Target year

Loge-term

Target year

Transportation

system

- 1

1

3

5 Valid

Equity

Suitable

Effective

Reduction

Target study

Advisory board：advice to project

60 Researchers

Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy

[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]

Research Project on Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050

12/05/30 11

GHGemissionspercapita

Withh

ighdam

age

onEco

nomyan

d

Natu

ralSystem

Developed

Developing

DevelopmentofAsiaLCSScenarios 　(1)Depic ngnarra vescenariosforLCS 　(2)Quan fyingfutureLCSvisions 　(3)Developingrobustroadmapsbybackcas ng

Policy Packages for Asia LCS

SustainabledevelopmentthroughLCS Futuretrendsonsocio-economiccondi ons,energy,resources,regionaldiversity,culture,lifestyle,etc.

Ins tu onaldesignforint’lcoopera on Ins tu onaldesignforinterna onalcoopera on,regionalregime,etc.

Low-CarbonSociety

LCTransporta on • Low-CarbonCitywithLCtransportsystem

• Granddesignforfuturetransport

system Backcas ng

DiversityofAsia

• EncouraginginframingforLCpolicyineachAsiancountries

• Assistanceforinterna onalnego a onswithscien ficbasis

• Approachesforint’lLCSac vityframework • NetworkingamongLCSresearchinAsia

Sustainableresourcemanagement

• Construc ngmaterialaccounts

• Low-Carboniza on

throughimprovementresourceproduc vityandmaterialrecycle

Research Project on Asia Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050

12/05/30 12

“Scenario” is “Projection” and/or “Prediction” ?

Terms Description

Projection A projection can be regarded as any description of the future and the

pathway leading to it.

Forecast/

Prediction

When a projection is branded "most likely," it becomes a forecast or

prediction.

Scenario Socioeconomic scenarios in general have been developed to aid

decisionmaking under conditions of great complexity and uncertainty

in which it is not possible to assign levels of probability to any

particular state of the world at a future point in time.

Storyline A narrative description of a scenario that highlights the scenario’s

main characteristics, relationships between key driving forces, and

the dynamics of the scenarios.

Vision Picture of the desirable future (snapshot).

Source: Mainly excerpt from IPCC reports

12/05/30 13

Steps towards LCS Scenarios and Roadmaps

Step 1 • Depicting socio-economic visions in 2050

Step 2 • Estimating energy service demands

Step 3 • Exploring innovations for energy demands and energy supplies

Step 4 • Quantifying energy demand and supply to estimate CO2 emissions

Step 5

• Investigating “When and Which options and How much” of each option should be introduced in order to achieve the goal, Low Carbon Society.

12/05/30 14

How to depict Socio-economic visions in 2050?

12/05/30 15

Step 1: Depicting Socio-economic Visions in 2050:

Two different but likely future societies

Vision A “Doraemon” Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthrough

Centralized production

/recycle

Self-sufficient

Produce locally, consume

locally

Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Akemi

Imagawa

Doraemon is a Japanese comic series created by Fujiko F. Fujio. The series is about a robotic cat named Doraemon, who travels back in time from the 22nd century. He has a pocket, which connects to the fourth dimension and acts like a wormhole.

Satsuki and Mei’s House reproduced in the 2005 World Expo. Satsuki and Mei are daughters in the film "My Neighbor Totoro". They lived an old house in rural Japan, near which many curious and magical creatures inhabited.

12/05/30 16

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/Expo_2005_of_Satsuki_and_Mei%E2%80%99s_House_01.jpg

Key concepts of two societies (1/2) Keywords Vision A Vision B

Mindset of people

Goal of life •Social success •Social contribution

Residence •Urban orientation •Rural orientation

Family •Self-dependent •Cohabitation

Acceptance of advanced

technology

•Positive •Prudent

Population

Birth rate •Downslide •Recover

Immigration of foreign

workers

•Positively accepted •Status quo

Emigration •Increase •Status quo

Land-use and cities

Migration •Centralization in large cities •Decentralization

Urban area •Concentration in city center

•Intensive land-use in urban area

•Population decrease

•Maintain minimum city function

Country-side •Significant population decrease

•Advent of new businesses for efficient

use of land space

•Gradual population decrease

•Local town development by local

communities & citizens

12/05/30 17

Key concepts of two societies (2/2) Keywords Vision A Vision B

Life and household

Work •Increase in “Professionals”

•High-income and over-worked

•Work sharing

•Working time reduction & equalization

Housework •Housekeeping robots & Services •Cooperation with family & neighbors

Free time •Paid – for activity

•Improving carrier

•Skill development

•With family

•Hobby

•Social activity (i.e. Volunteer activity)

Housing •Multi-dwellings •Detached houses

Consumption •Rapid replacement cycle of

commodities

•Long lifetime cycle of commodities

(Mottainai)

Economy

Growth rate •Per capita GDP growth rate: 2% •Per capita GDP growth rate: 1%

Technological development •High •Not as high as vision A

Industry

Market •Deregulation •Adequate regulated rules apply

Primary Industry •Declining GDP share

•Dependent on import products

•Recovery of GDP share

•Revival of public interest in agriculture

and forestry

Secondary Industry •Increasing add value

•Shifting production sites to overseas

•Declining GDP share

•High-mix low-volume production with local

brand

Tertiary Industry •Increase in GDP share

•Improvement of productivity

•Gradual increase in GDP share

•Penetration of social activity

12/05/30 18

SLCS SSTAG

General

Descriptio

n

Governance in each country has improved

substantially and so as the education level.

Foreign investments are concentrated to Asia.

Dialogues between government and public have been

widely accepted in many countries. As a result,

Asian countries attain high economic growth based

on many technical innovations invented in the

regions.

Many Asian countries have failed to restructure the

inefficient state owned company. Governance and

economic levels stay relatively lower. Those investment

conditions of Asian countries are perceived as high

risk from foreign countries and foreign investments are

not expand as expected. Each countries have pursue

short-term profit and, as a result, technical

improvement and economic growth rate have stayed

relatively low

Economy ・Annual growth rate: 4.4%/year ・Annual growth rate: 3.4%

Population ・Total Population: 4.6 billion （2050）・Total Population: 4.6 billion （2050）

Education ・Success in educational policy （Average

educational year：4-12 years (2005)→11-13 years

(2050)）

・Limited success in educational policy（Average

educational year：4-12 years (2005)→11-13 years

(2050)）

Government ・Greatly improvement ・Limited improvement

Internatio

nal

Cooperatio

n

・Asian cooperation in both economic and social

aspects (Globalization)

・Less cooperative activities among the Asian

countries (Nationalization)

Innovation ・High technology improvement rate ・Moderate technology improvement rate

Transport ・High demand based on high economic growth ・Relatively lower transportation demand

Urban ・Intensive infrastructure development in the

urban areas and slums are decreasing

・Infrastructure development could not catch up the

increase in population in the urban area

Two Visions for Asia LCS • Two scenario concept was developed. The key parameters that differentiate the two

scenarios include; Education, Governance, and International relationship

12/05/30 19

For Step 2: Estimating energy service demands

Quantifying service demands by models

Industry

Domestic and

Commercial

Transportation

Energy supply

Social system

Cross-sectional

1. Changes in industrial structure and technological development on energy

consumption as well as productivity

2. Changes in building distribution by climatic zone

3. Changes of the share of detached and multi-dwelling houses

4. Diffusion rate of insulated detached and multi-dwelling houses

5. Lifetime changes of the dwellings

6. Lifestyle changes on household consumption and allocation of the time

7. Changes in population distribution and local characteristics

8. Changes in social environment and human activities

9. Changes in selectivity of the mode of passenger transportation by area

10. Changes industrial structure

11. Dematerialization

12. Changes in producing /consuming area

13. Changes in selectivity of the mode of transportation by distance

14. Function of load management and uncertainties of both energy supply and demand

15. Combination of small consumer and small energy sources + Electricity/Hydrogen

16. Feasibility of local production for local consumption

17. Relationship between economic activities and stock/flow of the materials

18. Amount of waste derived from the stock

19. Effectiveness of recycling and its impacts

20. Ensuring consistency among the sectors in terms of energy demand

21. Impacts of future technological choices on social energy efficiency

22. Ensuring economical consistency of LCSs

i) Industrial structure

ii) Dwellings

iii) Lifestyle

iv) Passenger transportation

v) Freight transportation

vi) Energy Supply (Electricity/Renewables/Hydrogen etc)

vii) Material stock/flow

viii) Consistency of energy balance

ix) Economic consistency

12/05/30 20

Developed snapshot and transition models

Topics to be asked LCS Models

i) Industrial structure

ii) Dwellings

iii) Lifestyle

iv) Passenger transportation

v) Freight transportation

vi) Energy supply

vii) Material stock/flow

viii) Consistency of energy balance

ix) Economic consistency

1. Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

2. Building Dynamics Model

3. Household Production and Lifestyle

Model

4. Passenger Transportation Demand Model

5. Freight Transportation Demand Model

6. Energy Supply Model

7. Material Stock and Flow Model

8. Energy Snapshot Tool

(1.Inter-sector and macro Economic Model)

+

0. Population and Household Model

12/05/30 21

• describing LCS in a certain future, concretely, quantitatively, and consistently with physical, economical, technological laws.

Snapshot

models

• focuses on the dynamics and trend transition of the society, economic system, and the technological system.

Transition

models

• Representing inter-temporal optimal strategy on introduction of new technologies and economic activity change in order to achieve the future targets.

Backcast

model

Certain year

(e.g. 2050)

Over the years

(e.g. 2000-2050)

Time frame

Environmental Option Database (EDB) Stores information of activities which accompany or reduce GHGs emission.

Overview of Modeling Activities for Japan LCS Study

12/05/30 22

Linkage of Models for LCS Scenario Design

Other Teams Global Model

（AIM/CGE[Global]）

Extended Snapshot Tool

(ExSS) Check and

analyze quantitative

consistency of future societies

Backcasting Model

(BCM)

Design roadmaps

toward future

visions

AIM/CGE[country]

One regional multi-

sectoral CGE model

Element models

•Econometric type macro-

economy model (EME)

•Population and household

model (PHM)

•House and building

dynamics model (BDM)

•Traffic demand model

(TDM)

•Energy supply model

(ESM)

•Material stock dynamics

model (MSFM)

•Household production and

lifestyle model (HPLM)

•AIM/enduse[air]

Supply transient and dynamic parameters based

on more physically realistic mechanisms

Supply social,

physical

parameters

based on more

physically

realistic

mechanisms

Supply target year’s

social/ economic/

energy vision

quantitatively

Supply values of parameters based on

more physically realistic mechanisms

Check and verify the future

visions and transient paths

from the points of economic

reality

12/05/30 23

Population and Household Model • A cohort component model for population, a household headship rate

model for household types, with spatial resolution of provinces, land-

use types and climate zones and five family types

• Analyzing effects of depopulation and changes in family composition

on the future population projection.

Nation’s and Province-wise:

Base year’s population

Expected life table

Expected fertility rate

Expected migration rate

Information on land-use types and climatic zones by province-wise resolution

Input Nation’s and Province-wise:

Future population by age and sex

Number of households by family type

Population and Households by climatic zone and land-use classification

Output

12/05/30 24

Example of Results:

Demographic composition in Japan

Female (103) Male (103)

Age Age

Vision A

Male

Male

Female

Female

4,000 0 4,000 0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Female(103) Male (103)

4,000 0 4,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

In 2000

Vision B

>85 >85

In 2050

12/05/30 25

Building Dynamics Model • A cohort model with a spatial resolution of climate zones,

four heat insulation levels, four residential building types,

and six commercial building types.

Dwelling stock in the base year

Residual ratio

Number of households

Regional/Building type distribution

of new dwellings

Retrofit of existing dwelling stock

Average floor space of new

dwellings

Input

Number and the floor

space of future dwelling

stock by

Region

Building type

Construction period

Output

12/05/30 26

Projection of residential building stock by insulation

level

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048

Mill

ion

hou

ses

1999 standard

1992 standard

1980 standard

Without insulation

1999 standard

1992 standard

1980 standard

Without insulation

Projection

based on

present

policy

Projection

based on

enhanced

policy

12/05/30 27

Passenger Transportation Demand Model • Simulates transportation demand associated with changes in population

distribution, social environment, personal activity patterns, modal share,

and average trip distance.

• Based on the transportation model developed by Japan’s Ministry of

Land Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT).

License holding ratio

Trip generation coefficient

Modal share

Average trip distance

Net total conversion ratio

Input Net transportation demand

Total passenger

transportation demand

Output

12/05/30 28

Passenger Transportation Demand Model:

Application to Japan

Inter-region transportation demand by

mode (mil. person-km)

Indices Example of element

Personal attribute Several groups depending on age, sex, employment, etc.

Day Weekday, holiday

Land area Urban, mountainous, agricultural, etc.

Mode Car, bus, railway, aviation, maritime, walking & bicycling, etc.

Objective Work, school, return, business, private & shopping, etc.

Simulation time Every 5 years between 2000 and 2050

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Buses Aviation Pass.cars Maritime Railways Walk&Bike

Total transportation demand by mode of

transportation (mil. person-km)

Bus Aviation Pass.car Maritime Railway Walking & Bicycling

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Buses Aviation Pass.Cars Maritime Railways

12/05/30 29

Industrial Structure Change in 2050, Japan

by Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Ag

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Fo

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Fis

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Co

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Cru

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& N

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2000 2050 A 2050 B

12/05/30 30

year unit 2000 2050

model A B

Population Mil. 127 94 (74%) 100 (79%)

Population and Household model

Household Mil. 47 43 (92%) 42 (90%)

Average number of person per household

2.7 2.2 2.4

GDP Tril.JPY 519 1,080 (208%) 701 (135%)

Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

Share of production

primary % 2% 1% 2%

secondary % 28% 18% 20%

tertiary % 71% 80% 79%

Office floor space Mil.m2 1654 1,934 (117%) 1,718 (104%) Building dynamics Model & Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

Travel Passenger volume bill. p・

km 1,297 1045 (81%) 963 (74%)

Transportation demand model & Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

Private car % 53% 32% 51%

Public transport % 34% 52% 38%

Walk/bycycle % 7% 7% 8%

Freight transport volume bill. t・

km 570 608 (107%) 490 (86%)

Industrial production index 100 126 (126%) 90 (90%)

Inter-sector and Macro Economic Model

Steel production Mil.t 107 67 (63%) 58 (54%)

Etylen production Mil.t 8 5 (60%) 3 (40%)

Cement production Mil.t 82 51 (62%) 47 (57%)

Paper production Mil.t 32 18 (57%) 26 (81%)

Quantification of Vision A and B

12/05/30 31

Step 3: Exploring innovations for energy demands and energy supplies

List of Technologies for LCS

Sector Technology

Residential &

Commercial

Efficient air conditioner, Efficient electric water heater, Efficient gas/oil water heater,

Solar water heater, Efficient gas cooking appliances, Efficient electric cooling

appliances, Efficient lights, Efficient visual display, Efficient refrigerator, Efficient

cool/hot carrier system, Fuel cell cogeneration, Photovoltaic, Building energy

management system (BEMS), Efficient insulation, Eco-life navigation, Electric

newspaper/magazine etc.

Transportation

Efficient reciprocating engine vehicle, Hybrid engine vehicle, Bio-alcohol vehicle,

Electric vehicle, Plug-in hybrid vehicle, Natural gas vehicle, Fuel cell vehicle,

Weight reduction of vehicle, Friction and drag reduction in vehicle, Efficient railway,

Efficient ship, Efficient airplane, Intelligent traffic system (ITS), Real-time and

security traffic system, Supply-chain management, Virtual communication system

etc.

Industrial

Efficient technologies for boiler, industrial furnace, Independent Power Plant (IPP),

coke oven, and other innovations like Eco-cement, Fluidized catalytic cracking of

naphtha, Methane coupling, and Gasification of black liquid.

Energy

Transformation

Efficient coal-fired generation (IGCC, A-PFBC, Co-combustion with biomass etc),

Efficient gas-fired generation, Efficient biomass-fired generation, Wind generation

(On-shore, Off-shore), Nuclear power generation, Hydro power generation, By-

product hydrogen, Natural gas reforming hydrogen production, Biomass reforming

hydrogen production, Electrolysis hydrogen production, Hydrogen station,

Hydrogen pipeline, Hydrogen tanker, CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage), etc.

Total 600 types of technologies are included.

12/05/30 32

Projected energy efficiency improvement:

Air-conditioners for cooling and heating

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

CO

P (

Coe

ffic

ien

t of

pe

rfo

rman

ce)

Best

Average

Worst

Historical AIST

MOE

METI METI

Energy efficiency improvement has been encouraged by Top Runner Program.

12/05/30 33

Projected Energy Efficiency Improvement:

LED Lighting

incandescent lamp

Conventional fluorescent

Hf Inverter fluorescent

Historical trend

Japan LED Association

DOE SSL Project

METI 2005

0

50

100

150

200

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Lu

min

ou

s e

ffic

acy　

(lm

/W)

12/05/30 34

UK, February 2005

“40% House”

60% reductions

Japan, June 2005

Guidance for Self-sustained

Residential, 50% reductions

12/05/30 35

Combination of Technologies:

Example of LCS house in 2050

12/05/30 36

Step 4: Quantifying energy demand and supply to estimate CO2 emissions

Energy demands for achieving 70% reduction of CO2 emissions

Seconday Energy Demands (Mtoe)

IndustrialResidential

Commercial

Trans. Prv.

Trans. Frg.

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2000(Actual)

2050(Scenario A)

2050(Scenario B)

Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.

Decrease of

energy demand

Trans.Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans.Frg.: Transportation (Freight)

40-45% energy demand

reduces by structural

change of demand,

and efficiency improvement

Possible energy demands reductions for each sector:

Industry：structural change and introduction of saving energy tech. 20-40％

Passenger Transport :land use, saving energy, carbon-intensity change 80％

Freight Transport :efficient transportation system, energy efficient 60-70％

Residential: high-insulated and energy-saving houses 50％

Commercial: high-insulated building and energy saving devices 40％

12/05/30 37

• Calculates the energy balance table and the CO2 emission table

immediately with keeping consistency among sectors.

• Suitable for the communication among stakeholders to design LCS

• Can be used as a simple assessment tool of output from various models

Energy Snapshot Tool (ESS)

Service demand

Share of energy supply

Energy efficiency

Energy consumption in base

year

Assumed target year’s

condition of demand, share,

efficiency

Input

Energy balance table in

target year

CO2 emissions both in base

year and target year

Changes in carbon/energy

intensity from base year

Output

12/05/30 38

Changes in energy demands in the residential

sector

17

10

23

9

3 43 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2050A 2050B

En

erg

y d

em

an

ds (

Mto

e)

Change of numbers of

householdsIncrease of service

demand per householdDecrease of service

demand per household

Improvement of energy

efficiencyElectricity

H2

Solar

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Energy demands in

2000

12/05/30 39

Changes in composition of energy supply

Coal Oil Gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Solar and Wind

100 200 300 400 500 600

2000(Actural)

2050(Scenario A)

2050(Scenario B)

Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)

Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind

12/05/30 40

70

%re

du

ctio

n

6

21

90

36

77

61

24

10

13

38

97

28

17

41

36

CCS

Carbon CaptureStorage

Change of activity

19

90

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

20

00

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

20

50

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

Change of activity

Imp

rove

men

t o

f ca

rbo

nin

ten

sity

o

f en

ergy

su

pp

ly

Imp

rove

men

t o

f ca

rbo

nin

ten

sity

o

f en

d-u

se

Imp

rove

men

t o

f en

ergy

inte

nsi

ty

of

end

-use

Red

uct

ion

o

f d

eman

d

Ener

gy d

eman

dse

cto

rEn

ergy

su

pp

ly s

ecto

r

Ind

ust

ryTr

ansp

ort

atio

nR

esid

enti

al &

co

mm

erci

alEn

ergy

su

pp

ly

Reduction of service demand

Improvement ofenergy intensity

Improvement ofcarbon intensity








・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase)

・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)

・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas

・Insulation・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)

・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, Efficient lighting equipment

・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house・Photovoltaic

・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function・Modal shift to public transportation service

・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such aselectric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle

・High efficiency freight vehicle・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)

・Power generation without CO2 emission・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission

・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy

・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply

・Farm products produced and consumed in season

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven Society

12/05/30 41

21

24

63

82

40

24

13

14

16

35

23

34

40

5

21

4

24

13

14

16

35

23

34

40

5

21

4

Imp

rove

men

t o

f ca

rbo

nin

ten

sity

o

f en

ergy

su

pp

ly

Imp

rove

men

t o

f ca

rbo

nin

ten

sity

o

f en

d-u

se

Imp

rove

men

t o

f en

ergy

inte

nsi

ty

of

end

-use

Ener

gy d

eman

dse

cto

rEn

ergy

su

pp

ly s

ecto

r70

%re

du

ctio

n

19

90

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

20

00

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

20

50

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

Change of activity

Ind

ust

ryTr

ansp

ort

atio

nR

esid

enti

al &

co

mm

erci

alEn

ergy

su

pp

ly











Change of activity

・Significant improvement in energy efficiency of production equipment




・Expanding biomass energy use in home・Diffusion of solar water heating and photovoltaic on the roof

・Shortening trip distances for commuting through intensive land use

・Infrastructure for pedestrians and bicycle riders(sidewalk, bikeway, cycle parking)

・Widespread use of hybrid vehicle・Expanding biofuels・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)

・Expanding share of both advanced gas combined cycle and biomass generation

・Decrease of electricity demand


・Slowing of final demand by breaking away from physical affluence mind-set, Reduction of war material production, Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)

・Promoting seasonal local food

GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario B: Slow Nature-oriented Society

12/05/30 42

Step 5: Investigating “When and Which options and How much”

of each option should be introduced in order to achieve the goal.

• This stage has three components:

1.Design of policy roadmaps toward the Low Carbon Society

2.Feasibility analysis of the roadmaps considering uncertainties involved in

element policies

3.Analysis of robustness of the roadmap caused by societal, economical

and institutional uncertainties and acceptability

Base year Target year

LCS

Non-LCS Option

Option Option

Option

Evaluation by backcast model

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

When, which option, and how much to install?

70

%re

du

ctio

n

6

21

90

36

77

61

24

10

13

38

97

28

17

41

36

CCS


Change of activity

19

90

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

20

00

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

20

50

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

Change of activity

Imp

rove

men

t o

f ca

rbo

nin

ten

sity

o

f en

ergy

su

pp

ly

Imp

rove

men

t o

f ca

rbo

nin

ten

sity

o

f en

d-u

se

Imp

rove

men

t o

f en

ergy

inte

nsi

ty

of

end

-use

Red

uct

ion

o

f d

eman

d

Ener

gy d

eman

dse

cto

rEn

ergy

su

pp

ly s

ecto

r

Ind

ust

ryTr

ansp

ort

atio

nR

esid

enti

al &

co

mm

erci

alEn

ergy

su

pp

ly
























Vision A Vision B

Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented

Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community

Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle

Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally

Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values

2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth

Akemi Imagawa

12/05/30 43

How to depict LCS roadmaps? 7

0%

red

uct

ion

6

21

90

36

77

61

24

10

13

38

97

28

17

41

36

CCS


Change of activity

19

90

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

20

00

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

20

50

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n

Change of activity

Imp

rove

men

t o

f ca

rbo

nin

ten

sity

o

f en

ergy

su

pp

ly

Imp

rove

men

t o

f ca

rbo

nin

ten

sity

o

f en

d-u

se

Imp

rove

men

t o

f en

ergy

inte

nsi

ty

of

end

-use

Red

uct

ion

o

f d

eman

d

Ener

gy d

eman

dse

cto

rEn

ergy

su

pp

ly s

ecto

r

Ind

ust

ryTr

ansp

ort

atio

nR

esid

enti

al &

co

mm

erci

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ergy

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pp

ly
























Target Vision in 2050 Backcast Model

Roadmaps Narrative Roadmaps

12/05/30 44

Constraints Analysis •Constraints Analysis is to identify the gap between current situation and visions

described in “Future objective”

•options can be defined as countermeasures to overcome the constraints

•Various types of constraints should be taken into account including;

Initiation constraints

Dissemination speed constraints (Cost, amenity, and efficiency)

Upper limit constraints (Physical, Social, and Technological )

Today Low

Carbon

Society

Technical constraints

Economical constraints

Social constraints

Informational constraints

Current

Situation

Future

Objectives

12/05/30 45

Identification of necessary actions

Diffusion of green

design building

Certification & registration

of labeling

Incentives to the higher

performance building

Organizing training

classes and events

Establishment of

simplified evaluation

method

dissemination of

diagnosis practitioners

Lack in information of environmental

performance of the building

Relatively high cost compared

to general building

Lack in knowledge of regional

specific climatic conditions

Too complicated

calculation required

Lack in personnel

who can implement

the calculation

Indirect options

Direct options

Barrier breaking

Step by step strategies

12/05/30 46

1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment

Efficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built

environment design. Intelligent buildings.

2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances

Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances.

Initial cost reduction by rent and release system

resulting in improved availability.

3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food

Supply of seasonal and safe low-carbon local

foods for local cuisine

4. Sustainable Building Materials Using local and

renewable buildings materials and products.

5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and

Industry Businesses aiming at creating and

operating in low carbon market. Supplying low

carbon and high value-added goods and services

through energy efficient production systems.

12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Human resource

development for building “Low-Carbon Society” and

recognizing extraordinary contributions.

6. Swift and Smooth Logistics

Networking seamless logistics systems with

supply chain management, using both

transportation and ICT infrastructure

7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design

City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and

bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient

public transport

8. Low-Carbon Electricity Supplying low carbon

electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power

and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants

9. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand

Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind,

biomass and others.

10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon

free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply

system with required infrastructure

11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices

Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information

for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by

consumers, and public acknowledgement of such

consumers

Residential/commercial sector actions

Industrial sector actions

Transportation sector actions

Cross-sector actions

Energy supply sector actions

Dozen Action towards Japan LCS 12/05/30 47

• Investigating “When and Which options and How much” of

each option (countermeasures and policies) should be

introduced in order to achieve the goal with keeping

consistency of energy/economy.

Backcast Model: Overview

Future target vision

Social/Economical conditions

Set of options

And, each options’

Sequential order

Elapsed time

Kick-off period

Input

Feasibility of the target

Roadmaps

CO2/Cost trajectories

Output

12/05/30 48

Role of Backcasting Model: Creating Consistent Roadmap

• These roadmaps (usually) focuses one technology/segment in a society.

• In order to find “comprehensive” roadmaps towards LCS, we need to combine the information appropriately.

Green IT Energy efficient lighting

Fuel Cell

Vehicles

Fuel

cells

Nuclear power

Photovoltaic

s

12/05/30 49

How to reach the Japan LCS?

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CO

2em

issi

on

s [M

tC]

Action 10 Action 9

Action 8 Action 7

Action 6 Action 5

Action 3 Action 2

Action 1 CO2 emissions

Scenario A

CO2 wedges

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Ad

dit

ion

al in

vest

men

t [T

ril.

JPY

]

Ene: Fuel savingEne: Additional fixed investmentTrp: Fuel savingTrp: Additional fixed investmentInd: Fuel savingInd: Additional fixed investmentRes: Fuel savingRes: Additional fixed investmentTotal

Scenario A

Investment

Residential and commertial sector

Introduction of simplified methods for assessing the

performance of buildings

Spread technologies of insulated houses and buildings

Spread insulated houses and buildlings

Introduce a system for labeling houses and buildings

Revice the top-runner standards

Spread the use of energy efficient household appliances

Spread the use of energy efficient office appliances

Introduce solar water heating appliances

Agriculture

Introducing labeling of farm products

Increase consumer awareness of low-carbon farm products

Encourage the consumption of seasonal foods

Spread energy efficient devices in agriculture

Industry

Introduce a CO2 emission disclosure system by each

company and office

Establish CO2 emission disclosure system on the entire

industrySpread energy efficient devices in industry

Fuel shift to gas in industry

Promote electrification in industry

Spread steel furnaces installed with CCS

Passenger transportation

Change the city structure by revising land use

Introduce a system for drawing up intensive land use and

transport plans together with citizens

Promote the concentration of houses, etc. in the center of

citiesCreate a system of preferential treatment for low-carbon

vehicles

Spread energy efficient automobiles

Spread biomass energy use

Spread energy efficient railways

Spread energy efficient vessels

Spread energy efficient airplanes

Spread energy efficient light automobiles

Conduct technological demonstrations near existing

hydrogen supply stations

Investigate plans for positioning hydrogen supply stations

Expand research and development of fuel cells

Introduce fuel cell vehicles

Freight transportation

Revise the top-runner standards

Spread energy efficient trucks

Promote a modal shift in logistics

Spread biomass fuel

Energy supply sector

Introduce energy efficient thermal power plants

Promote the development of CCS technologies and safety

assessment

Establish safe and efficient CCS technologies

Spread thermal power plants equipped with CCS

Promote lower costs of introducing renewables

Raise the exercise price of renewables and construct a

warranty system with a certain guarantee period

Increase solar and wind power generation

Colors in the figure: red: measure, green: policy

Width of the lines: Bars denote periods for actively spreading the measure or for spreading the policy nationwide. Arrows denote periods for

maintaining the ratio of spread of the measure or the period for continuing the policy. Diamonds are the timing for drawing up and enforcing

the policy.

2040 20502010 2020 2030

Gantt chart

12/05/30 50

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns p

er

ca

pita

Time

Developed

Countries

High Energy

Locked-in Type

Development

With High

Damage on

Economy and

Natural System

Developing

Countries

Leapfrog

Development

Modeling Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia

“Asian Low-Carbon Society Scenario Development Study” FY2009-2013,

funded by Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ

LCS Scenario in Asia

12/05/30 51

Features and Challenges towards Low Carbon Asia

In order to attain the low carbon world by 2050, it is important to

develop middle-long term scenarios toward low carbon Asia and to

assess various policy options in this area.

Huge economic activity: Around

30% of global primary energy is

consumed in Asia

Developing countries: Future GHG

emissions will drastically increase.

Other issues such as MDGs: Each

country has many important issues

to be solved –poverty, pollution...

Win-win strategy: We need

strategies to solve both climate

change and other issues in Asia.

Issues to overcome: Biomass is

related to energy security and food

security.

Diverse Asia: Each country is

different – natural resource, culture,

industry, lifestyle.... Globalization: Activities in Asia are

liked to the global activities. Features of Asia

Masui, T. (2009). Introduction of Advancement of Low-Carbon Society Scenario Studies in Asian Countries, Japan Low-Carbon Society

Scenarios toward 2050 Project Symposium, 12 Feb, 2009 at Tokyo.

12/05/30 52

Methodology for designing Asia Low Carbon Society Scenario:

Multi Scale Approach

Three different scales but interactive approaches are necessary for

designing LCS scenarios

Global and Pan-Asian scale approach

National scale approach

Local scale approach De

taile

d a

nd

sh

ort

er-

term

an

aly

sis

Ag

gre

ga

ted a

nd lo

ng

er-te

rm

an

aly

sis

12/05/30 53

Pan-Asian LCS study now going on

12/05/30 54

National LCS studies now going on

12/05/30 55

Sub-national studies now going on

12/05/30 56

The effects of countermeasures differ by country • Scenarios of each region vary in terms of combination of actions and their effects.

Ex) Thailand: Higher reductions from power generation and fuel shift in Industry

Vietnam: More focusing on demand side measures such as modal shift etc.

Thailand Vietnam

Building

Industry

Passenger

Transport

FreightTransport

Powergeneration

Residential

Commercial

Efficientappliances

Fuelshift

Efficiencyimprovement

ModalShift


ModalShift

Lowcarbongeneration

Building

IndustryPassenger

Transport

Freight

Transport

PowerGeneration

Residential

Commercial

Efficientappliances

Fuelshift


ModalShift


ModalShift

Lowcarbongeneration

-45%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 CM2030

CO2emission(Mt-CO2)

-43%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 CM2030

CO2emission(Mt-CO2)

12/05/30 57

Brochures introducing our country and region LCS studies

2010/10 2009/11

on going on going 2011/10

2009/10

2011/03

2008/12

2010/10

2011/09

2007/05 2009/10

2009/11

2009/10

2011/05

All information is available from http://2050.nies.go.jp

12/05/30 58

[email protected]

Thank you

Documents

Designing Low Carbon Society: Methodology for Development of Roadmaps toward Low ... · 2018-06-29 · Methodology for Development of Roadmaps toward Low Carbon Society by Backcasting