Development of Earthquake Damage Forecasting System and Response Plans in Cooperation with Mie University and Mie Prefecture Government 19th APAN Bangkok J. Kawaguchi, S. Morino, H.Hosono and S. Tanaka Mie University & Mie Prefecture, JAPAN 19th APAN Bangkok J. Kawaguchi, S. Morino, H.Hosono and S. Tanaka Mie University & Mie Prefecture, JAPAN Background 1995 South Hyogo-ken Earthquake Caused by the active fault named Nojima fault. Attached Kobe Metropolitan area. Approx. 6,000 people died. Caused by the active fault named Nojima fault. Attached Kobe Metropolitan area. Approx. 6,000 people died. 1995 South Hyogo-ken Earthquake 2004 Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake Caused by the active fault Occurred at an agricultural region. 40 people died. Caused by the active fault Occurred at an agricultural region. 40 people died. Where are we from? Characteristics of Mie Various region Industrial area : Northern part Residential area Agricultural area Tourist area : Southern part Long coast line : about 170 km Southern part : a rias coastline Various region Industrial area : Northern part Residential area Agricultural area Tourist area : Southern part Long coast line : about 170 km Southern part : a rias coastline History Trough Hypocentral region Assumed Intensity by Japanese government based on the worst scenario Assumed Tsunami height at the coastline by Japanese government based on the worst scenario Usual Disaster Info. System Special system for disaster Gather damage information Visualize on GIS Open to public on Web site Special system for disaster Gather damage information Visualize on GIS Open to public on Web site Problem of Usual System Not real time system Need long time to gather information Special System Different from daily-work system Difficult to Expand Lack of flexibility Difficult to update information of database Information about buildings and residents Not real time system Need long time to gather information Special System Different from daily-work system Difficult to Expand Lack of flexibility Difficult to update information of database Information about buildings and residents Objectives of New system Seamless system At ordinary time and at emergency Real time damage forecasting system Expandability Seamless system At ordinary time and at emergency Real time damage forecasting system Expandability Base system Time-Space Information system Time-dependent GIS Developed at NIED (National Research Institute of Earth Science and Disaster Prevention) KIWI+ format Open database Time-Space Information system Time-dependent GIS Developed at NIED (National Research Institute of Earth Science and Disaster Prevention) KIWI+ format Open database Forecasting Earthquake information Seismic intensity, ground acceleration, Building damage Collapse, half-damaged, minor-damaged,.. Deaths and injured Fire damage Lifeline damage Earthquake information Seismic intensity, ground acceleration, Building damage Collapse, half-damaged, minor-damaged,.. Deaths and injured Fire damage Lifeline damage How it works? Receive quake information automatically from Now-cast system and Mie seismic monitoring network. (real time) Calculate the seismic intensity, maximum ground acceleration and speed based on the Time-GIS database. (about 1 sec.) Calculate building damage. (about 1 sec.) Calculate number of deaths and injured. (about 1 sec.) Send calculated information to certain organization (local city government, Japanese government) by FAX or(in few sec.) Receive quake information automatically from Now-cast system and Mie seismic monitoring network. (real time) Calculate the seismic intensity, maximum ground acceleration and speed based on the Time-GIS database. (about 1 sec.) Calculate building damage. (about 1 sec.) Calculate number of deaths and injured. (about 1 sec.) Send calculated information to certain organization (local city government, Japanese government) by FAX or(in few sec.) Other Investigation for Response Plan Investigation on the Counter-plan for the Refuge at Tourist Area Investigation on the Counter-plan for the Refuge of the Weak Investigation on the Counter-plan for the Refuge at Tourist Area Investigation on the Counter-plan for the Refuge of the Weak Thank you very much. Mie University