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DIASを用いた洪水予警報システムのプロタイピングPrototyping a Flood Early Warning System on DIAS
小池俊雄、Toshio Koike
国立研究開発法人土木研究所水災害・リスクマネジメント国際センター(ICHARM)センター長Director, International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM)
東京大学名誉教授、日本学術会議会員Professor Emeritus, the University of Tokyo (UTokyo)
Council Member, Science Council of Japan (SCJ), Cabinet Office
「平成29年度全球降水観測計画(GPM)国内シンポジウム宇宙から見る雨~これまでの20年、これからの20年~」
18-22 Jan 2005Inauguration of IFI at WCDR in
KobeWMO/UNESCO/
UNISDR/UNU
2
International Flood Initiative (IFI) -Establishment
2003
17-22 Jun : 15th UNESO-IHP
IGC Resolution XV-14 on Joint
UNESCO/WMO Programme on
Floods
2002
2004> 12-14 Jul : Preparatory meeting in
Tsukuba. A joint UNESCO/WMO task team (6 members) produced a concept paper "The Joint UNESCO/WMO Flood Initiative (JUWFI)"
> 20-24 Sep : 16th IHP-IGC approved the concept paper and renamed as "The International Flood Initiative (IFI)".
> 20-29 Oct : 12th WMO CHy discussed the Concept Paper
May: XIVth WMO Congress welcomed the initiative and suggested to establish a joint UNESCO/WMO Committee on Floods. The proposed ICHARM will constitute a global facility for this programme.
Building Resilience
Mar
ch 2
015 Sendai
Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction
Sep
tem
ber
2015 Sustainable
Development Goals
Dec
ember
2015 Paris
Agreement
(COP 21)
Concerted Action is Required
Preventing Future Risk
Reducing Current Risk
Adaptation& Recovery
Sustainable Development
Understanding Governance Investment EW/BBB
Three Key Global Agendas in 2015
International Symposium on Integrated Actions for
Global Water and Environmental Sustainability -In
line with the Commemoration of the 70th
Anniversary of UNESCO, October 2015, Medan
Second UN Special Thematic Session on Water
and Disasters, 2015, The UN Headquarters, New
York
Asia Water Cycle Symposium (AWCS2016),
March 2016, Tokyo
IFI Side Event at the UNESCO IHP IC on New
Strategy for International Flood Initiative (IFI), June
2016, Paris
Third UN Special Thematic Session on Water and
Disasters, 2017, The UN Headquarters, New York
HLPW Panel members (as of 3/21/2016)
`Enrique Peña Nieto
President, Mexico
`
Macky Sall
President, Senegal
` `
`
`
`
Sheikh Hasina
Prime Minister, Bangladesh
János Áder
President, Hungary
Ameenah Gurib-Fakim
President, Mauritius
Abdullah Ensour
Prime Minister, Jordan
Malcolm Turnbull
Prime Minister, Australia
Kevin Rutte
Prime Minister, Netherlands
`Jacob Zuma
President, South Africa
`
Co-chairs
UNITED NATIONS
Jim Yong Kim
President, World Bank Group
Ban Ki-moon
Secretary General, United Nations
Co-convened by:
Dr. Han Seung-soo
Former prime Minister, South Korea
Manuel Pulgar-Vidal
Minister, Peru
Special Advisors to the Panel
`
Emomalii Rahmonov
President, Tajikistan
HLPW Action Plan “9 Areas of Action”
6
1. Catalyzing Changes, Building Partnerships and International Cooperation
2. Resilient Economies, Societies, and Disaster Risk Reduction
3. Universal Access to Safe Waterand Sanitation
4. Sustainable Cities and Human Settlements
5. Water and the Environment6. Infrastructure and Investments7. Water Governance8. Water Data9. Valuing Water
International Decade for Action, “Water for Sustainable Development”
2018-2028
• Proclaims the period from March 22th, 2018 to March, 22th, 2028 the International Decade for Action, “Water for Sustainable Development”;
• Decides that the objectives of the Decade should be a greater focus on the sustainable development and integrated management of water resources… in order to help to achieve internationally agreed water-related goals and targets;
• Decides that these objectives should be pursued, inter alia, by improving knowledge generation and dissemination, facilitating access to knowledge and exchange of good practices, generating new information relevant to the water-related Sustainable Development Goals, pursuing advocacy, networking and promoting partnership and action 7
- Adopted by UN General Assembly on December 20th, 2016 -
Implementation Planning Workshop on International Flood Initiative (IFI) in Asia-Pacific
and GEOSS/AWCI Session at GEOSS AP 9
January 2017 in Tokyo, Japan
Participated Countries (6)Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka
Platform on Water and Disasters (PWD)
Identification
Policy-makingCommunity of
Practice
1. Data
Archiving
2. Model
Development
3. Societal
Benefit
Creation
Societal Change
(land use , population)
Climate Change
Monitoring
Prediction
Tra
nsd
iscip
lina
ry
Inte
rdis
cip
linary
Ca
pa
city
Bu
ildin
g
Integrated Risk Assessment
future
present
past
International Cooperation
Hig
h-L
eve
l P
ractitio
ne
rH
igh
-Le
ve
l P
olic
y-M
ake
r
Damage Hazard Socio-Economic
Country A
Hydro-Met
River Bureau
Disaster
University
Funding Agency
IFI Partners
UNISDR
WMO
UNESCO
ICHARM
UNU
IAHS, IAHR
Country B
Hydro-Met
River Bureau
Disaster
University
Funding Agency
Research Institute
Main support:
Sub-support:
Local Community Local Community
Water-related Disasters
RBA
Hydro-Met
River Bureau
Disaster
University
Funding Agency
Research Institute
Local Community
NARBO
CEOS, APRSAF, GEO
Space AgencyExpected Partner Space Agency
Activities in Asia-Pacific Region• Pakistan
- Platform on Water and Disasters- Activity: Meeting among related stakeholders in March, 2017- Initial Target(s): Indus River
• Myanmar- Platform on Water and Disasters- Activity: Meeting among related stakeholders in May and November, 2017- Initial Target(s): Bago River & Sittaung River
• Philippines- Platform on Water-related Disasters (PLATFORM)- Activity: Meeting among related stakeholders in March and June, 2017- Initial Target(s): Pampanga River & Davao River
• Sri Lanka- Platform on Water and Disasters- Activity: Meeting among related stakeholders in August, 2017- Initial Target(s): Kalu River, Kelani River, Malvaththu-Oya River
Activities for “Platform on Water and Disasters”
Sri Lanka
Flood and landslide disaster occurred in late
May this year.
Post-Disaster Activities
A meeting for establishment of “Platform on Water and Disaster”; 24 August at Irrigation Department, Colombo
Participated Stakeholders• Department of Meteorology, Ministry of Disaster Management• Irrigation Department, Ministry of Irrigation & Water Resources Managment• Ministry of Megapolis and Western Province Development• JICA• ICHARM
Platform Target Actions and Coordinating Bodies1. Early Warning: rainfall, flooding, landslide:
ID, MD, NBRO2. Adaptation Planning: Climate Change, Urbanization:
ID, MMDE, MMWD3. Economic Effect of Disasters:
MMDE, DMC4. Contingency Planning:
DMC
Platform Participating Organizations:• Irrigation Department (ID)• Meteorology Department (MD)• Survey Department (SD)• Disaster Management Center (DMC)• National Building Research Organization (NBRO)• Ministry of Magapolis and Western Department (MMWD)• Ministry of Mahaweli Development & Environment (TBD, MMDE)
In-situ rain gauge data (6 numbers)
Collaboration with member organizations of disaster management platform
DisasterManagement
Center
IrrigationDepartment
MeteorologyDepartment
Member organizations of national platform
Satellite precipitation data(GSMaP)
On-line Information provision on DIAS:In-situ rainfall, satellite rainfall, calibrated and forecast rainfall, inundation simulations
Implemented by EDITORIA and ICHARM on DIAS
ALOS © JAXA (2016)
Inundation analysis by using
RRI in DIAS
Simulation and forecasting of river
discharge, water level, inundation extent
Inundation analysis results
Concept of RRI model
Ensemble forecasting rainfall for the next 16 days (max)
Himawari-8 cloud images
Inundation map by satellite data (ALOS-2)
Present situation: Test operation for rainy season Mid-term framework
4 hr latency data (NRT)
Real time data (NOW)
Universities
and others
Calibration
CollaborationInformation provision
Email alert messages
Evacuation advisory by early warning
Government of Sri Lanka(Disaster Management Center)
Damage reduction by pre-disaster measures
Government of Sri Lanka(Irrigation Department)
Sri Lanka disaster management platform
Capacity building for operation
• Promotion of research• Damage reduction
through implementation
Kalu River Basin: Real-time rainfall monitoring & Modeling
Real-Time Data Transfer System in Kalu Basin
Catchment area 2839km2
Largest Discharge to sea 4035MCM annually
Highest Rainfall
Length 129km
More real-time data can be incorporated from ID, DOM, NBRO
Geolocation error correction
16
Bias corrected GSMaP
Ground
GSMaP_NRT
Geolocation error is corrected by
comparison of rainfall pattern
Error of rainfall area location
(Geolocation error)
May 26, 2017
Rainfall intensity correction
17
Bias corrected GSMaP
Ground
GSMaP_NRT
Rainfall intensity is adjusted using
information of ground observation
Bias of rainfall intensity
May 24, 2017
18
Example of hourly rainfall (Corrected GSMaP)
May 25 20:00 May 25 21:00
May 25 22:00 May 25 23:00
Forecast model and prediction methodWRF model:Resolution: 20km/4kmGrids: 200×150×40 (outer), 151×151×40 (inner)Cumulus parameterization: Newer Tiedtke in outer frameCloud microphysics: Lin (water cloud, ice cloud, rain, graupel, snow, single moment)Δx=20km Δx= 4km
00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 (UTC)5/30 5/31 6/1
Forecast initial time (NCEP GFS)
Global forecasts available
Downscaled forecast (3days) is available.
Forecast from 18UTC is available at around
01UTC next day.
Forecast Rainfall in 25May2017
Grell3DECMWF Global forecast
Newer TiedtkeGSMaP observation
The location of precipitation is well
predicted, but is overestimated or underestimated depend on the
choice of cumulus scheme.
VerticalSoil moisture
Profile
Energy andWater flux
Balance
Lateral flow-2D Diffusion wave
River flow - 1D Diffusion wave
Water-Energy budget-RRI (WEB-RRI) Model
River Routing
Surface flow
Ground water Flow
Slope-River Interaction
GW-River Interaction
GW-Soil Moisture Interaction
Discharge Simulation at Kukula hydro-power Station
~1m
Inundation in Kalu River simulated by RRI Model
DEM should be updated with better topographical dataExisting structures should be included for accurate river flow & inundation forecasting
Building Resilience
Mar
ch 2
015 Sendai
Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction
Sep
tem
ber
2015 Sustainable
Development Goals
Dec
ember
2015 Paris
Agreement
(COP 21)
Concerted Action is Required
Preventing Future Risk
Reducing Current Risk
Adaptation& Recovery
Sustainable Development
Understanding Governance Investment EW/BBB
Three Key Global Agendas in 2015