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  • Chapter-IV

    DIMENSIONS OF INDIAS EXPORT TRADE WITH UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AN

    ANALYSIS

    The discussion in this core chapter of the thesis is focused on

    Indias export trade with the United Arab Emirates. The analysis of

    the export trade covers a period of 15 years from 1996-97 to 2010-

    11. The data on the export trade have been analysed relating to the

    three aspects of Indias export trade with United Arab Emirates viz.,

    (i) Quantitative analysis of the value of Indian exports to UAE

    during the period from 1996-97 to 2010-11. The analysis is made

    by looking into the exports to UAE during the later years of the 90s

    and the value of export earnings during the first decade of the new

    millennium. An attempt is made to assess the UAEs share in Indias

    total exports during the period and the rate of growth of UAEs

    share in Indias exports. A comparison is also made with the rate of

    export growth of India with the UAEs share and its growth rate

    relating to the growth of Indian exports during the corresponding

    period.

    (ii) The second part of the analysis is related to the

    significance of the position of UAEs in relation to the other major

    trade partners of India in its export trade. UAEs rank in the export

    trade of India during the 15 year period along with other major

    trade partners of India in this context has been highlighted.

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    (iii) The third part of the analysis in this chapter of the thesis

    relates to the commodity composition of Indias exports to United

    Arab Emirates. Major export commodities from India to the UAE

    have been described and the potentials for future expansion of

    exports of these commodities have been explained.

    Indias Exports to United Arab Emirates Growth Trends

    during 1996-97 to 2010-11

    A continuous uptrend in Indias exports to United Arab

    Emirates is observed during a decade and a half from 1996-97 to

    2010-11. This trend of export trade of India with the United Arab

    Emirates during this post liberalization period is positively indicated

    both in terms of the share of United Arab Emirates in Indias total

    exports and also in terms of the growth rate of Indias exports to

    the UAE during the corresponding period.

    The share of UAE (United Arab Emirates) in Indias exports

    rose from 4.41 percent in 1996-97 to 4.68 percent in 1997-98

    registering an annual growth of 10.40 percent. This was higher than

    the growth of Indias total exports at 3.93 percent during the same

    period. The share of UAE in Indias exports in 1998-99 rose to 5.62

    percent and the growth rate to 14.61 percent which was much

    higher than Indias total export growth of -4.50 percent. There has

    been a further rise in the share of UAEs in Indias exports in 1999-

    2000 to 5.65 percent. Growth rate of UAEs share in Indias total

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    exports was 11.52 percent in 1999-2000, while growth rate of

    Indias exports was 10.85 percent.

    The details of the share and growth of UAE in Indias total

    exports during second half of 90s of the post-liberalization period

    have been provided in the following table.

    Table 4.1

    Share of UAE in Indias Total Exports and the Growth Rate during

    the Second Half of the 90s from 1997-98 to 1999-2000

    Year Indias Total Exports US $

    Million

    Share of UAE in Indias

    Exports (%)

    Growth of UAEs Share in Indias

    Exports (%)

    Growth of Indias

    Exports (%)

    1997-98 34784.98 4.68 10.40 3.93

    1998-99 33218.72 5.62 14.61 -4.50

    1999-2000 36822.49 5.65 11.52 10.85

    Source: Department of Commerce, Govt. of India.

    The details in the above table indicate a continuous increase

    in UAEs share in Indias total exports during the three years in the

    second half of 90s. The growth rate of UAEs share in Indias total

    exports has shown a trend of fluctuations. However the growth rate

    of UAEs share in Indias total exports has been higher than the

    growth rate of Indias total exports during the corresponding period.

    UAEs Share in Indias Total Exports During the First Decade

    in the New Millennium

    There has been an expansion of a higher magnitude in the

    total exports earnings by India during the first decade of the New

    Millennium from 2000-01 to 2010. Similarly the share of UAE in the

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    total exports of India too has gone up substantially during the

    corresponding period. Growth rate of the share of UAE in Indias

    exports as well as the growth rate of Indias total exports during

    2000-01 have been at a high level.

    The total exports of India in 2000-01 stood at US $ 44560.29

    million registering a growth of 21.01 percent over the previous

    year. The UAEs share in Indias total exports rose to 5.82 percent

    registering a growth of 24.72 percent over the previous year. Thus

    the growth of UAEs share in Indias total exports at 24.72 percent

    in 2000-01 was higher than the latters total exports growth of

    21.01 percent. This trend indicates growing trade relation of UAE

    with India since the liberalization of Indias economy from the early

    part of 90s.

    The higher growth of UAEs trade with India is further

    observed during the subsequent period with a slow down in the year

    2001-02. Indias total exports declined to US $ 43826.72 million in

    2001-02 and the exports registered a negative growth of -1.65

    percent over the previous year. Similarly UAEs share in Indias

    exports declined to 5.68 percent and the rate of growth too showed

    a negative trend with -4.07 percent in 2001-02.

    A good revival of the export growth from India and UAEs

    share in Indias total exports have been recorded in the subsequent

    period. Total exports from India reached a high of USD 52719.43

    million in 2002-03. It amounted to a growth rate of 20.29 percent

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    over the previous year. Similarly UAE registered a high share of

    6.31 percent in Indias total export earnings during the

    corresponding period. It amounted to a growth rate of 33.54

    percent over the previous year. Indias total exports went up further

    to a high of USD 63842.55 million in 2003-04 with a growth rate of

    21.10 percent over the previous year. Similarly UAEs share in

    Indias total exports went up by 8.02 percent and growth rate of

    UAEs share in Indias total exports increased by 54.04 percent. The

    year 2004-05 witnessed a further growth of Indias total exports to

    US $ 83535.94 million registering a growth rate of 30.85 percent

    over the previous year. Similarly UAEs share in Indias total exports

    went upto 8.79 percent with a growth rate of 43.36 percent. Thus

    UAEs share in Indias total exports grew at a higher rate than the

    growth rate of Indias total exports.

    The performance of Indias export trade and the share of UAE

    in the total exports of India have been impressive during the year

    2005-06 though at a lower level compared to the position in 2004-

    05. Total exports from India in 2005-06 stood at USD 103090.53

    million which is much higher compared to the previous year.

    However the growth rate of Indian exports was at a lower level of

    23.41 percent. Similarly the share of UAE in Indias total exports

    was lower at 8.33 percent and the growth rate was at lower level of

    16.93 percent.

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    There has been a steep rise in Indias total exports during

    2006-07. Total export rose to a high of USD 126414.05 registering

    a growth rate of 22.62 percent. UAEs share in Indias total exports

    rose to 9.50 percent and the growth rate is much above the growth

    rate of Indias total exports during the corresponding year.

    The rising trend in the growth of Indias export earnings and

    the share of UAEs in the total export earnings has been sustained

    in the subsequent period in the decade of the new millennium. The

    total export earnings of India in 2007-08 stood at USD 163132.18

    million with a growth rate of 29.05 percent which is much above the

    growth rate for the previous year. The share of UAE in Indias total

    export earnings has gone up to 9.58 percent which is more than its

    share in the previous year. However the growth rate of this share

    slowed down to 30.07 percent. The growth rate of UAEs share in

    Indias total exports in 2007-08 is above the growth rate of Indias

    total exports during this period.

    Indias total export earnings and the share of UAE in the total

    exports have much higher in the year 2008-09 compared to the

    previous year of 2007-08. The total exports earnings of India in

    2008-09 amounted to USD 185295.36 million with a growth rate of

    13.59 percent. The growth rate is lower compared to the previous

    year though the absolute amount of export earnings during the year

    2008-09 was higher at 13.21 percent compared to the previous

    year. The growth rate of UAEs share in Indias total export earnings

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    was the highest at 56.54 percent, during 2008-09 compared to the

    growth rate during all the entire period from 1996-97 to 2010-11.

    The performance of Indias export trade during the year 2009-10

    has been at a low level. Similarly the growth rate of UAEs share in

    Indias total exports too has been much below the level recorded in