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(ร่าง) แผนแม่บทพลังงานไทย 2558-2578 จัดทําโดย สถาบันวิจัยพลังงาน จุฬาลงกรณ์มหาวิทยาลัย เสนอ สํานักงานนโยบายและแผนพลังงาน กระทรวงพลังงาน

Draft Master Plan 26-03-14 by STG Sunisa Tuaglans Conflicted Copy 2014-03-26

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  • () 2558-2578

  • 20 2

    - 2 -

    1.

    1.1

    (.) .. 2555 - 2556 . 20 2 20 20 (.. 2558-2578)

  • 1.2

    (Key(Env(Sce

    y decision fovironmental (Unce

    enario build

    2

    focus) l scanning)ertainty) ing)

    20

    1.1

    (

    0

    1 (Importance- 20

    e) --

    2 1-1

    (SW

    2

    WOT)

    0 2

    - 3 -

  • 20 2

    - 4 -

    2 1 (Focus group) 8 (Public seminar) 6 14 (Workshop) 2 1.1

  • 20 2

    - 5 -

    1.1 / /

    (Focus group)

    -

    -

    -

    - 12 - 30-

    50

    (Public seminar)

    - ---

    -

    - 6 14

    - 60-100

    (Workshop)

    -

    - 2 - 20-

    30

  • 20 2

    - 6 -

    1.3

    (Key decision focus)

    11 .. 2570

    2 "" "" 1-2

  • 20 2

    - 7 -

    1.2

    "" ""

    1.

    2.

    1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

    2570

    (Key decision focus)

  • 20 2

    - 8 -

    2.

    2.1

    20 "" "" 6 2.1

    2.1

    2.1.1

    Smart grid

    /: -----

  • 20 2

    - 9 -

    2.1.2

    2.1.3

    2.1.4

    70

  • 20 2

    - 10 -

    (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions: NAMAs)

    2.1.5

    2.1.6

    (Shale gas) (Oil sand)

    2.2 3

  • 20 2

    - 11 -

    2-2 5

    1) 2) 3) 4) 5)

    "" (High impact) "" "" (High uncertainty) 2 1. 2.

    2.2

    (Im

    pact)

    2. 1.

    3.

    Zoning

    (Uncertainty)

  • 20 2

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    2.3

    2.3.1

    (Scenario building) (Critical uncertainty) 1. 2. 2 4 2-3

    2.3

    1:

    (Healthy)

    2: 1

    (Cancer stage I)

    3:

    (Great

    influenza)

    4: (Coma)

    Oil shock

  • 20 2

    - 13 -

    2.3.2

    (Scenario Building) 4 1. (Healthy) 2. 1 (Cancer Stage I) 3. (Great Influenza) 4. (Coma) (Scenario) 3

    ) (Reference Scenario) 1 (Cancer Stage I) (Great Influenza)

    ) (Coma Scenario)

  • 20 2

    - 14 -

    ..

    ) (Healthy Scenario)

    1

    ) (HealthyPlus Scenario)

    (Energy Accounting Model) 2-4 .. 2554 .. 2578 2-5