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Drought Management: Shifting the Paradigm from Crisis to Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities Dr. Donald A. Wilhite, Director National Drought Mitigation Center Professor, School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Drought Management: Shifting the Paradigm from Crisis … · Drought Management: Shifting the Paradigm from Crisis to Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities Dr. Donald A. Wilhite,

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Drought Management: Shifting the Paradigm from Crisis to Risk Management:

Challenges and Opportunities

Dr. Donald A. Wilhite, DirectorNational Drought Mitigation Center

Professor, School of Natural ResourcesUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln

• annual losses $6-8 billion

• 2002 losses >$20 billion

• increasing vulnerability

•increasing impacts

•complexity of impacts

• national/global issue

“Drought is the ‘Rodney Dangerfield’ of natural hazards.”

Where’s the respect?

Why the lack of respect?

Slow-onset, creeping hazardNo universal definitionNon-structural impacts, minimal property damageMinimal loss of lifeDifficult to assess severity and impacts

Multiple indicators and indices

Drought cycles vs. political cyclesPolitical will

Top-down vs. bottom-up management approach

Is drought a departure from normal climate

or a part of normal climate?

Percent Area of the United States in Severe and Extreme Drought

January 1895–September 2003

%

Based on data from the National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995

“If we do what we’ve always done, we’ll get what we’ve always got.”

Characteristics of Crisis Managementreactive, post-impactpoorly coordinateduntimelypoorly targetedineffectivedecreases self-reliance greater vulnerability

Since 1988, the U.S. Congress has appropriated $48 billion in drought relief.

Has this expenditure reduced or increased vulnerability to drought?

The Cycle of Disaster Management

Drought differs from other natural hazards

Slow-onset, creeping phenomena (early warning systems, impact assessment, response)Absence of universal definition (leads to confusion and inaction)Severity is best described through multiple indicators and indices (early warning systems)Impacts are non-structural and spread over large areas (makes assessment and response difficult; mitigation actions less obvious)RESULT, progress on drought preparedness has been slow

Lessons Learned—U.S.

Federal assistance programs are numerous, poorly coordinated, and reactive (response oriented)Relief increases vulnerability, no incentive to change resource management practices greater impacts, increased need for government assistancePreparedness and mitigation reduces vulnerability, impacts, and the need for government intervention; a good investmentEarly warning is the foundation of effective drought planning and mitigation integrated early warning

Improve monitoring networks and information delivery to end users to improve decision making reduces risk and impactsComprehensive, integrated assessments

Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought

Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)

MeteorologicalAgricultural

Hydrological

Socio-economic

Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management

Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts

Time/Duration of the event

National Drought Mitigation Center

Mission: To lessen societal vulnerability to drought by promoting

planning and the adoption of appropriate risk management

techniques.

Components of Drought Risk Management

(social factors)(natural event)

A New Paradigm for Drought Management

Challenges and Opportunities

Integrated Climate/Drought/Water Supply Monitoring and Early Warning

Consultation with end usersImproved delivery systemsTraining in the use of informationUser feedback

U.S. Drought MonitorSeveral key indices and ancillary indicatorsAttempts to capture conditions across widespectrum of drought conditions

Challenges and Opportunities

Integrated Climate/Drought and Water Supply Monitoring and Early WarningImproved Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Increased reliabilitySpatial scaleTemporal scale

Challenges and Opportunities

Integrated Climate/Drought and Water Supply Monitoring and Early WarningImproved Seasonal Climate ForecastsEnhance drought preparedness planning

Move from response to mitigation planningEmphasize risk assessment and mitigation at local, state, tribal, and national level—acknowledge drought as a normal part of climate

Status of State Drought Planning

in the United States, 2004

States with plans emphasizing response

Drought plans under revision

States with plans emphasizing mitigationStates developing long-term plansStates delegating drought planning to local authoritiesStates without drought plans

Moving toward Drought Risk Management: Components of

Drought Mitigation PlansMonitoring, early warning, and prediction

Climate indices and indicators, water supply assessments, forecasts, delivery and feedback systems Foundation of a DEWS

Risk and impact assessmentWho and what is at risk and why?

Mitigation and responsePro-active programs and actions to reduce risksSafety net/programs

Response Mitigation

Increasing need for timely and reliable climate/water supply assessments

Increasing need for higher resolution analysis for policy decision support

Challenges and Opportunities

Integrated Climate/Drought and Water Supply Monitoring and Early WarningImproved Seasonal Climate ForecastsEnhance drought preparedness planningNational Drought Policy

National Drought Preparedness Act—pending in U.S. CongressAre there discussions in Canada about a national drought policy?

Why should the U.S. develop a national drought policy?

Canada

Crisis management ineffective, increases vulnerability, decreases self-relianceLittle coordination between agencies on drought management—national and state levelsPromotes improved monitoring, planning, and mitigation at all levels of governmentParadigm shift—institutional inertiaEducate policy makers and the public

National Drought Preparedness Act

Creates National Drought CouncilFederal and non-federal members

National Office of Drought PreparednessEmphasis on risk managementPromotes drought preparedness planningNational Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Challenges and Opportunities

Integrated Climate/Drought and Water Supply Monitoring and Early WarningImproved Seasonal Climate ForecastsEnhance drought preparedness planningNational Drought PolicyDrought Preparedness: A Global Issue

Regional Drought Preparedness NetworksGlobal Drought Preparedness Network

Global Drought Preparedness Network

GOAL:To help nations build greater institutional

capacity to cope with drought by promoting risk management and sharing lessons learned on drought monitoring and prediction, mitigation, and preparedness.

Building a Network of Regional Networks through Regional and Global Partnerships

Drought Mitigation CenterNational

A Partnership

www.unisdr.org

Drought Resilient Society

Risk-based drought policy and plans

Society resilientto drought

Drought mitigation actions implemented

Policies to enhance social adaptive capacity, at both local and national scales

Authorities aware and accountable to vulnerable populations, sectors, regions

Appropriate land tenure arrangements

Security

rein

forc

ent

Fact

ors

Red

ucin

g vu

lner

abili

tySo

ciet

al

resp

ok

Nat

ure

Political capital

All groups able to claim rights

Cul

ture

of p

reve

ntio

n,

early

war

ning

sys

tem

s

Integrated Drought EWS

Society exposed to droughtns

e to

liv

ing

with

ris

Con

sequ

ence

s,

em

Impacts reduced or avoidedLessons

learned

ConclusionsDrought is a normal part of climate for virtually all climate regimes—a global issueDrought is the most costly natural disaster, resulting in serious economic, social and environmental lossesImpacts are increasing in magnitude and complexity—increasing vulnerabilityImproved preparedness requires improved drought early warning and greater emphasis on risk-based planning and mitigationParadigm shift is critical to change institutional inertia—crisis to risk management

Drought policies and plans can . . .

improve detection, assessment, mitigation, and level of preparednessimprove coordinationreduce vulnerability and impactsprovide incentives to improve natural resources management practicesimprove self-reliancelessen the need for government and donor interventionreduce vulnerability to climate change.

Recommendations

Create a national drought centerDevelop a partnership to develop a Canadian Drought Monitor mapInitiate discussions about changing the paradigm of drought management in Canada—move away from crisis management to risk management!Cross the 49th parallel—build partnershipsCreate a North American drought preparedness network with U.S. and Mexico

Visit the NDMC

drought.unl.edu

[email protected]

Thanks!