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1
資源生産性からみた低炭素社会への道
Resource productivity toward Low Carbon Society
環境研究総合推進費S-6 一般公開シンポジウム Symposium
アジア低炭素社会へのチャレンジ －アジアはリープフロッグで世界をかえられるか？
Challenges to Low Carbon Asia - Can Asia change the world through leapfrogging ?
国連大学ウ・タント国際会議場 U Thant International Conference Hall, United Nations University
平成25年10月17日（木） 13:00 - 17:00, Thursday, October 17, 2013
森口祐一 Yuichi Moriguchi
東京大学大学院工学系研究科都市工学専攻 Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo
S-6-4 チームリーダー Team Leader of S-6-4 project
S-6-4研究参画機関 (Members of S-6-4 project) 東京大学 (The University of Tokyo) （独）国立環境研究所 (National Institute for Environmental Studies) みずほ情報総研 (Mizuho Information & Research Institute) 名古屋大学 (Nagoya University) 立命館大学 (RitsumeikanUniversity)
2
内容
1. はじめに～デカップリングと資源生産性～
2. アジア低炭素社会プロジェクトにおける資源チームの役割
3. 資本の蓄積に着目した資源消費と炭素排出の分析
Contents
1. Introduction – Decoupling and resource productivity
2. The role of resources management subproject in the LCS Asia project
3. Analysis of resource consumption and carbon emission associated
with capital stock
3
Massive flow of materials on the globe
Resources Waste, GHGs
Consumer products
Infrastructur
e
as source of
resources
as sink of
residuals The earth is finite
So
lar Energ
y
4
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Crude Steel Production by World Regions (1000 ton)
WorldAsiaChinaEU15JapanUSAIndia
Trend of Crude Steel Production by Region (1000t)
5
UNEP国際資源パネルによる「デカップリング」報告書
“Decoupling” report by
UNEP International Resource Panel
http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/Publications/Decoupling/tabid/56048/Default.aspx
Concept of “Decoupling”
6
To decouple amount of resource use
from economic development by more
efficient use
To decouple environmental impact from
resource use, by better management
of resource use
Source:UNEP/IRP
International Resource Panel
• Established on November 9th, 2007
• Secretariat : UNEP/DTIE
• Co-chair:
Ernst von Weizsäcker and Ashok Khosla
• The overall objective :
• to provide independent scientific assessment of the environmental impacts due to the use of resources over the full life cycle,
• and to advise governments and organizations on ways to reduce these impacts.
7 http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/
8
What is “Resource Productivity” ?
• Increase of resource productivity means obtaining more output
or better utility for human well-being from products (i.e. goods
and services) while using less natural resources, such as fossil
fuels, metals and minerals, biomass, land, water, etc.
• The term “decoupling” is often used in the same context.
• I=PAT equation
I P A T
9 GDP/capita
Resource use
/capita
Source:
UNEP/IRP
The global interrelation between resource use and income
10
内容
1. はじめに～デカップリングと資源生産性～
2. アジア低炭素社会プロジェクトにおける資源チームの役割
3. 資本の蓄積に着目した資源消費と炭素排出の分析
Contents
1. Introduction – Decoupling and resource productivity
2. The role of resources management subproject in the LCS Asia project
3. Analysis of resource consumption and carbon emission associated
with capital stock
11
CO2 Emission Material Req. Energy Consump. CO2 Emission
GDP GDP Material Req. Energey Consump. ＝ × ×
Alternative development path in terms of resource consumption ?
（Possibility of Circular Economy/Society）
Infrastructure
（Compact city)
Consumer durables
（Reuse, Rental, Lease)
Proper consump.
of commodities
（Reduce, Recycle）
GDP/capita
Ma
teria
l re
qu
ire
me
nt/(c
ap
.・ye
ar）
Infrastructure
（Buildings,
Roadways, etc. ）
Consumer durables
（Automobiles, Electric equip.)
Mass consump.
of disposables
（Daily necessaries, Packages & containers ）
Steel, Cement,
etc.
Non-ferrous
metals, etc,
Plastics, paper, etc.
Traditional growth pattern with
mass consumption of materials
Alternative development pattern
with low material, low carbon
GDP/capita
Ma
teria
l re
qu
ire
me
nt/(c
ap
.・ye
ar）
Steel, Cement,
etc. Plastics,
paper, etc.
Non-ferrous
metals, etc,
Do developed countries have sufficient supply of primary/secondary resources to satisfy demand from developing countries ?
12
Demand structure
Civil infrastructure
Buildings & houses
Production facilities
Plant and equipment
Consumer durables
Consumer non-durable goods
Services
GHG emissions by various material requirements with economic development
Production/
Supply
Consumption/
Demand
Demand-based
emission
accounting
Materials
Critical materials
for LCS
Plastics
Wood & paper
Non-ferrous metals
Iron and steel
Cement
Mitigation
options in
production
technologies
and material
substitution
(incl. by-
products and
secondary
materials)
GHGs from direct energy
consumption for “use” phase
GHGs from energy consumption and industrial processes for
material production
Developing/
emerging
economies
Relationship between various
demands and economic development
Material requirements
by demand categories
GHG emissions for
material production
Developed
economies
Trend analysis & scenario analysis Material flow & stock model Inventory of technologies
New equipments for LCS
13
物質資源と低炭素社会に関する主要課題
Key Issues for Material Resources vs. LCS
• Demand for carbon-intensive material production (e.g. Steel, cement)
• Possibility of consumer/importer-based accounting scheme to consider GHGs and their reduction potential embodied in international trade of resource-intensive commodities → An indicator for OECD’s Green Growth Strategy
• Availability of critical metals for Low-Carbon Technologies (e.g. PGMs, Lithium, Rare-earths, etc.)
• Wise use of secondary resources as potential to reduce carbon emissions, e.g.,
– Scrap iron to EAF with low-carbon electricity
– Efficient cascading use of waste plastics
– Use of slag as substitute of limestone in cement production
• 炭素集約度の高い原材料（鉄鋼、セメント）の需要予測
• 資源集約度の高い財の国際貿易に内包された温室効果ガスおよびその削減ポテンシャルの消費国・輸入国ベースでの勘定スキームの適用可能性
→OECD Green Growth Strategyの指標
• 低炭素技術に必要な稀少金属（白金族、リチウム、希土類等）の供給制約
• 炭素排出の抑制のための二次資源・副産物の賢明な利用
– 低炭素電力を用いた電炉での鉄スクラップ利用
– 廃木材や廃プラのカスケード利用（再生材料として利用した後にエネルギー利用）
– セメント生産におけるスラグや石炭灰利用による石灰石代替
Critical metals for technology options
•Photovoltaic
– Cd, Te: Cd-Te PV
– In, Ga: CIGS PV
– Sn, Ag: Si PV
•Magnet (Wind turbine, EVs)：REE (Dy, Nd)
– Dy contents for Nd-F-B magnet is being reduced
– Hf, In: Nuclear reactor
•Ni, V, Nb: Pipeline for CCS
•Cu: Not rare, but maybe most critical, indispensable and
not substitutable, as far as LCS is further “electrified”
Critical Metals for Low Carbon Society
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
<0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
>10000
Energy consumption in Asian region induced by final demand of Japan
2292 PJ （53% of total overseas induced emission)
Map of consumer based energy consumption account (2005）
unit PJ-NCV
大韓民
国
6.8%
北朝鮮
0.2%
中華人民共和国
57.3%
台湾
3.6%
モンゴル
0.0%
香港
0.7%
ベトナム
1.8%
タイ
4.7%
シンガポール
1.1%
マレーシア
4.1%
ブルネイ
0.6%
フィリピン
1.5%インドネシア
10.7%
カンボジア
0.0%
ラオス
0.0%
ミャンマー
0.1%
インド
4.9%
パキスタン
1.6%
スリランカ
0.1%
モル
ディ
ブ0.0%
バングラデシュ
0.1%
東ティモール
0.0%
マカオ
0.0%
Energy consumption in Asian region
induced by Japanese final demand (2005)
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
<0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
>10000
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
<0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
>10000
15
Dependence of energy consumption on Asia associated with production of goods consumed in Japan
China
Journal paper and Database
Application of GLIO to compilation of Japanese IO-LCA database with global system boundary
Nansai et al. (2012), Estimates of Embodied Global Energy and Air-Emission Intensities of Japanese Products for Building a Japanese Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment Database with a Global System Boundary, Environ. Sci. Technol., 46(16), 9146-9154 .
Dependence of energy consumption on Asia associated with production of goods consumed in Japan
17
Role of resources management subproject
in S-6 LCS Asia project
Ten actions toward Low Carbon Asia
18
Action 3 : Smart Ways to Use Materials that Realize the Full
Potential of Resources
Production that
dramatically reduces
the use of resources,
Use of products in ways
that extend their lifespan Development of systems
for the reuse of resources
Material Resource Use
3.3
Development of
systems for the
reuse of resources
3.2
Use of products in
ways that extend
their lifespan
3.1
Production that
dramatically
reduces the use of
resources
3.3.2
Establishment
of recycling &
reuse systems
for various
goods
3.2.1
Development &
active
employment of
product life-
extension
technologies &
maintenance
systems
3.2.3
Construction of
long-lasting
housing &
replacement of
housing
3.2.2.1
Design of cities and national land from a long-term perspective
3.2.2.2
Support for
construction of
long-lasting
infrastructure
3.1.2
Creation of
materially
simple lifestyles
while still
enjoying
richness
3.2.2.3
Establishment of
institutions for
evaluation of
public projects
3.3.1
Development &
active
employment of
recycling &
reuse
technologies
3.2.4
Selection of less
resource
consuming,
long-lasting,
recyclable, &
reusable
products
Action 3: Smart Ways to Use Materials that Realize the Full Potential of Resources
3.1.1
Development &
active
employment of
technologies for
weight
reduction & raw
material
substitution
3.2.2
Development of
cities & national
land from a
long-term
perspective
3.1.1.1
Support for R&D
of technologies
3.1.1.2
Support for
diffusion of
technologies
3.2.1.1
Support for R&D
of technologies
3.2.1.2
Support for
diffusion of
technologies
3.2.3.1
Support for
construction of
long-lasting
housing
3.2.4.1(3.1.2.2)
Diffusion of
product evaluation
systems
3.1.2.1
Utilization of new
evaluation indices
3.2.4.2
Creation of
incentive systems
3.3.1.1
Support for R&D
of technologies
3.2.1.2
Support for
diffusion of
technologies
3.3.2.1
Establishment of
various recycling
laws
3.3.1.2
Establishment of
institutions related
to reuse
3.1.2.2(3.2.4.1)
Diffusion of
product evaluation
systems
3.2.3.2
Diffusion of
housing
evaluation
systems
3.3.3 (3.2.4)
Selection of less
resource
consuming,
long-lasting,
recyclable, &
reusable
products
20
内容
1. はじめに～デカップリングと資源生産性～
2. アジア低炭素社会プロジェクトにおける資源チームの役割
3. 資本の蓄積に着目した資源消費と炭素排出の分析
Contents
1. Introduction – Decoupling and resource productivity
2. The role of resources management subproject in the LCS Asia project
3. Analysis of resource consumption and carbon emission associated
with capital stock
Journal of Industrial Ecology
Vol. 16, No.4. Special Issue (August 2012)
Greening Growing Giants
21
Editorial
Greening Growing Giants :
A Major Challenge of Our Planet
(pages 459–466)
Seiji Hashimoto, Marina Fischer-Kowalski,
Sangwon Suh and Xuemei Bai
Journal of Industrial Ecology
Vol. 16, No.4. Special Issue (August 2012) Greening
Growing Giants
22
Resource Use in Growing China : Past Trends, Influence Factors, and Future Demand
(pages 481–492)
Heming Wang, Seiji Hashimoto, Yuichi Moriguchi, Qiang Yue and Zhongwu Lu
Toward a Low Carbon–Dematerialization Society : Measuring the Materials Demand
and CO2 Emissions of Building and Transport Infrastructure Construction in China
(pages 493–505)
Feng Shi, Tao Huang, Hiroki Tanikawa, Ji Han, Seiji Hashimoto and Yuichi Moriguchi
Paper and Paperboard Demand and Associated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Asia
Through 2050 (pages 529–540)
Chihiro Kayo, Seiji Hashimoto and Yuichi Moriguchi
Result of MF modeling :Buildings (by SHI Feng et al.)
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Construction (Statistical data)
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
19
50
19
60
19
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19
80
19
90
20
00
20
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20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Construction (Statistical data)
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
19
50
19
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19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Construction (Statistical data)
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
0
10
20
30
40
0
300
600
900
1200
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Construction (Statistical data)
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
0
10
20
30
40
0
300
600
900
1200
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Construction (Statistical data)
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
0
10
20
30
40
0
300
600
900
1200
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Construction (Statistical data)
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
0
10
20
30
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
0
10
20
30
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
100
200
300
400
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
Construction
Demolition
Stock
Flow (106 m2/year) Stock (109 m2)
Short lifetime Medium lifetime Long lifetime
Urb
an
res
iden
tia
l
Urb
an
no
n-r
esid
enti
al
Ru
ral
res
iden
tia
l
Ru
ral
no
n-r
esid
enti
al
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
0
100
200
300
400
5001950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Glass Asphalt
Lime Wood
Steel Gravel and sand
Brick Cement
San
d an
d g
ravel, b
rick, cem
ent
Oth
er m
ater
ials
106 tons / year 106 tons / year
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
0
100
200
300
400
500
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Glass Asphalt
Lime Wood
Steel Gravel and sand
Brick Cement
Oth
er m
ater
ials
San
d an
d g
ravel, b
rick, cem
ent
106 tons / year 106 tons / year
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
0
100
200
300
400
500
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Glass Asphalt
Lime Wood
Steel Gravel and sand
Brick Cement
Oth
er m
ater
ials
San
d an
d g
ravel, b
rick, cem
ent
106 tons / year 106 tons / year
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
0
100
200
300
400
500
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Glass Asphalt
Lime Wood
Steel Gravel and sand
Brick Cement
Oth
er m
ater
ials
San
d an
d g
ravel, b
rick, cem
ent
106 tons / year 106 tons / year
Result of MF modeling : MF with recycling
Materials input Materials output
Sh
ort
lif
etim
e,
No
n-r
ecy
clin
g
Lo
ng l
ifet
ime,
Hig
h r
ecycl
ing
Result of MF modeling : CO2 emission and raw material
consumption (by SHI Feng et al.)
25
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
CO2 emissions
Iron ore
Limestone
Mil
lion t
ones
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
CO2 emissions
Iron ore
Limestone
Mil
lion t
ones
Short lifetime, Non-recycling Long lifetime, High-recycling
The iron ore and limestone will continue increased until around 2030, which means China must
import more and more limestone and iron ore in the future and faces depletion under current
cement consumption in China.
Prolonging the lifetime of buildings, railway and roadways and strengthening materials
recycling obviously decreased demand for iron ore and limestone, and CO2 emissions.
Physical flow Raw material flow （actual results）
Cohort model
Lifetime function（past）
Population GDP
（actual results）
Stock regression
model
Physical flow
Raw material flow
（future estimate）
Cohort model
Physical flow Raw material flow （future estimate）
Lifetime function（future）
(where appropriate）
Assumption of saturation level
Population GDP
（future estimate）
Model parameters
Stock regression
model
Old scrap
（actual results）
New scrap
（actual results）
New scrap
（future estimate）
Yield rate
Yield rate
Structure of our dynamic material flow and stock model
26
Raw material per physical flow
Raw material per physical flow
S-6-1
subproject
Old crap
（future estimate）
Physical flow
Raw material flow
（actual results）
Point： Regard
per capita physical stock
as driving force
Use categories applied for the flow and stock model
27
Category Sub category Iron & steel
Cement 備考
Building
Residential （Urban)
○ ○ “Type A :Steel and cement intensive” and “Type B : Steel and cement less intensive” Load factors of raw materials per floor space (kg/m2) were set for type A & B. Ratio of A & B was assumed for urban and rural areas
Residential （Rural)
○ ○
Non-residential ○ ○
Civil infrastructure ○ ○
Transport machinery
Passenger car ○ －
Freight vehicles ○ －
Others ○ －
General machinery ○ －
Others ○ －
• Target material resources: Iron & Steel, Cement (Carbon intensive at production stage)
• Use categories as tabulated below
Major variables assumed in flow and stock model
Category Sub category Explained variable （Y） Regression
model Lifetime
Saturation (Ymax)
（Baseline）
Building Residential （Urban)
Per capita floor space S2 30 50m2/capita
Residential （Rural)
Per capita floor space S2 30 55m2/capita
Non-residential Per capita floor space S2 30 40m2/capita
Civil infrastructure Per capita steel demand S2 40 3 tons/capita
Per capita cement demand S2 40 15 tons/capita
Transport machinery
Passenger car Per capita ownership S2 15 0.6vehicles/capita
Freight vehicles Total registration E 15 -
Others Per capita steel demand S1 15 0.6 tons/capita
General machinery Per capita steel demand S1 20 1.3 tons/capita
Others Per capita steel demand S1 10 0.5 tons/capita
S1: sigmoid func., S2: Quasi-sigmoid func. , E: Elasticity, Explanatory variable (X): GDP per capita
28
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
一人
あた
りス
トック
量［m
2/人
］
一人あたりGDP［$/人］
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
一人
当た
り水
準(t
/pe
rson
)西暦
実績値
理論値
29
An example of the modeling parameters - Per capita stock of floor space in urban residential building -
Actual
Predicted
GDP per capita ($ / capita)
Per
cap
ita
phy
sica
l sto
ck
(m2 /
cap
ita)
Per
cap
ita
phy
sica
l sto
ck
(m2 /
cap
ita)
Iron demand by use categories in China
30
Per capita iron stock by use categories in China
Chinese CO2 emission for steel and cement production （Baseline）
Chinese CO2 emission for steel and cement production by mitigation scenarios
Above-titled four slides presented at the Symposium are excluded from this version.
Summary
31
• Decoupling natural resource consumption and accompanied environmental
burdens from economic growth and increase of resource productivity attract
global attention.
• Lowering energy intensity in material production, carbon intensity of energy
as well as improvements in resource productivity are effective in CO2
emission reduction associated with raw material production.
• Action3 “Smart Ways to Use Materials that Realize the Full Potential of
Resources” was proposed as the action 3 of 10 actions toward LC-Asia.
• Scenario analysis on future CO2 emission by steel and cement production in
China and its mitigation opportunities was conducted by applying material
flow and stock model, regarding physical stock level as driving force.
• Issues such as supply and demand of critical metals for low carbon
technologies and CO2 emissions embodied in international trade are key
subject in sustainable resource management, and they are relevant to Japan
and its relationship with Asian economies.
