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THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES (THAILAND)
Ichitan Group
3QFY15 profit tumbles 56% y‐y on sales shortfall
THAILAND | SET | FOOD | COMPANY RESULTS BLOOMBERG ICHI TB l REUTERS ICHI.BK
3QFY15 profit tumbles 56% y‐y on sales shortfall ICHI posted a big drop of 56% y‐y in 3QFY15 net profit to Bt117.2mn. In this period, much of the weak showing was largely blamed on sagging sales, shrinking gross margins and mounting SG&A expenses. Quarterly sales slipped 10% y‐y to Bt1,222.7mn due to the less success of its special campaign ‘Ichitan Sudden Rich’ which gave away gold chains and bars as a result of sluggish economic conditions and a longer‐than‐usual rainy season. Gross profit margins shrank 2.7% y‐y to 29.1% on account of lower capacity utilization rates amid flagging sales. SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales edged up 5% y‐y to 17.1% due chiefly to the launch of its special campaign to rev up sales. Earnings downgrades for FY15‐FY16 to reflect cuts in sales and gross margin assumptions We nudge our FY15‐FY16 net profit forecasts for ICHI lower by 15% and 11.4% to Bt894.7mn and Bt1,110.2mn respectively to reflect cuts in full‐year sales and gross margin assumptions. The cuts come as a result of (i) a slower recovery of spending in Thailand with strong pickup expected by the middle of next year, (ii) a longer‐than‐usual rainy season this year, (iii) the risk of unsustainable sales growth after the less success of its latest promotional campaign given that recent sales growth was largely driven by promotional campaign, and (iv) the prospect of losses from Ichitan Indonesia during the first three years of operations after official sales debut in Indonesia in 4QFY15 – but Ichitan Thailand on the other hand would see export sales rise and enjoy better gross margins on greater economies of scale on production as a result of higher capacity utilization rates. ‘BUY’ rating with FY16 target price of Bt17.70/share Rolling over our valuation base to FY16, we trim our target price for ICHI to Bt17.70/share. The target is based on a P/E multiple of 20x, which represents a discount to 22x P/E assigned to its peer SAPPE as ICHI’s customers appear to process less product loyalty than those of SAPPE. Despite earnings and price target cuts, we maintain a ‘BUY’ call on ICHI shares. The ‘BUY’ rating reflects (i) our optimistic view towards its FY16 outlook and (ii) some valuation upside from current trading levels. Even though earnings may not show signs of recovery by the end of this year due to the double whammy of both economic and weather headwinds, we are bullish on its outlook for FY16 on expectations that sales will perform better in 2QFY16, largely benefiting from high seasonality and full‐year export sales to Indonesia will drive gross profit margins higher.
Ref. No.: CO2015_0868
Closing Price(Bt) 15.00
Target Price(Bt) 17.70 (+18%)
COMPANY DATA
O/S Shares (mn) : 1,300
Market Cap. (Btmn) :
Market Cap. (USDmn) :
52‐WK Hi/Lo (Bt) : 24.2/14.1
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) : 4.32
Par Value (Bt) : 1.00
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%)
1. Tan Passakornnatee 34.6
2. Eng Passakornnatee 9.2
3. Jaruwon Sukaphantawon 6.2
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
1MTH 3MTH 1YR
ABS ‐11% ‐10% ‐30%
REL TO SET INDEX ‐9% ‐11% ‐20%
PRICE VS SET INDEX
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
KEY FINANCIALS
FYE Dec FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
Sales(Btmn) 6,484 6,179 6,335 7,463
Net Profit(Btmn) 884 1,079 895 1,110
EPS (Bt) 0.88 0.83 0.69 0.85
P/E (X) 17.0 18.1 21.8 17.6
BVPS (Bt) 1.97 4.77 4.70 5.25
P/B (X) 7.6 3.1 3.2 2.9
DPS (Bt) 0.50 1.00 0.34 0.43
Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 6.7 2.3 2.8
ROE (%) 58.10 26.43 14.54 17.16
Debt/Equity (X) 2.32 0.45 0.52 0.43
Source: Company, PSR Est.
**Multiples and yields are based on latest closing price
VALUATION METHOD
P/E'16(20X)
Vichuda Siriployprakray
Securities Investment Analyst # 55956
Tel: 66 2 635 1700 # 525
20 November 2015
19,500
544
28 August 2015
Buy (Maintain)
0
10
20
30
40
Nov‐12 Nov‐13 Nov‐14 Nov‐15
ICH I TB EQUITY SETI (rebased)
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 2 | P a g e
Ichitan Group COMPANY RESULTS
Income Statement
Btmn 3Q15 2Q15 3Q14 q‐q+/‐ y‐y+/‐ 9M15 9M14 y‐y+/‐
Sa l e s and s e rvi ces 1,223 2,106 1,360 ‐42% ‐10% 5,178 4,920 5%
Cos ts of s a le s 867 1,293 928 ‐33% ‐7% 3,336 3,251 3%
Gross profit 356 813 432 ‐56% ‐18% 1,842 1,669 10%
Se l l i ng expens es 173 410 149 ‐58% 16% 877 638 37%
Admini s tra ti ve expens es 36 43 16 ‐16% 130% 111 95 17%
Operating profit 147 360 267 ‐59% ‐45% 855 936 ‐9%
Other i ncome 0 4 17 ‐94% ‐99% 14 21 ‐32%
Ga in/los s from a ffi l i a te s ‐2 1 0 ‐315% n.m. 1 0 n.m.
Other expens e 0 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0 0 n.m.
EBIT 145 366 284 ‐60% ‐49% 870 957 ‐9%
Inte re s t expens e 22 23 18 ‐3% 21% 65 82 ‐20%
EBT 123 343 266 ‐64% ‐54% 805 875 ‐8%
Taxa ti on 6 18 0 ‐65% n.m. 46 0 n.m.
EAT 117 325 266 ‐64% ‐56% 759 875 ‐13%
Minori ty 0 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0 0 n.m.
Net profit before extra 117 325 266 ‐64% ‐56% 759 875 ‐13%
Extraordina ry i tems 0 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0 0 n.m.
Net profit 117 325 266 ‐64% ‐56% 759 875 ‐13%
EPS (Bt) 0.09 0.25 0.20 ‐64% ‐56% 0.58 0.67 ‐13%
Key Financial Ratio
% 3Q15 2Q15 3Q14 q‐q+/‐ y‐y+/‐ 9M15 9M14 y‐y+/‐
Cos t of s a l e s /s a l e s 70.90% 61.40% 68.23% 15% 4% 64.42% 66.08% ‐3%
SG&A exp/s a le s 17.07% 21.49% 12.11% ‐21% 41% 19.06% 14.90% 28%
Gros s margin 29.10% 38.60% 31.77% ‐25% ‐8% 35.58% 33.92% 5%
Opera ti ng profi t ma rgin 12.03% 17.11% 19.66% ‐30% ‐39% 16.52% 19.02% ‐13%
Net profi t ma rgin 9.59% 15.45% 19.58% ‐38% ‐51% 14.66% 17.79% ‐18%
Balance Sheet
Btmn 3Q15 2Q15 3Q14 q‐q+/‐ y‐y+/‐ 9M15 9M14 y‐y+/‐
As s e ts 8,914 9,564 8,941 ‐7% 0% 8,914 8,941 0%
Liabi l i ti e s 2,936 3,377 2,932 ‐13% 0% 2,936 2,932 0%
Pa id ‐up (mn s hrs ) ‐ Pa r Bt1 1,300 1,300 1,300 0% 0% 1,300 1,300 0%
Equi ti e s 5,978 6,188 6,009 ‐3% ‐1% 5,978 6,009 ‐1%
BVPS (Bt) 4.60 4.76 4.62 ‐3% ‐1% 4.60 4.62 ‐1%
Debt/equi ty (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 ‐10% 1% 0.5 0.5 1%
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 3 | P a g e
Corporate Governance ‐2014
BAFS BCP BTS CPN EGCO GRAMMY HANA INTUCH IRPC TOP
KBANK KKP KTB MINT PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC SAMART IVL
SAT SC SCB SE‐ED SIM SPALI TISCO TMB THCOM SAMTEL
AAV ACAP ADVANC ANAN AOT ASIMAR ASK ASP BANPU BAY
BBL BECL BIGC BKI BLA BMCL BROOK CENTEL CFRESH CIMBT
CK CNT CPF CSL DELTA DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EE
ERW GBX GC GFPT GUNKUL HEMRAJ HMPRO ICC KCE KSL
LANNA LH LHBANK LOXLEY LPN MACO MC MCOT NBC NCH
NINE NKI NMG NSI OCC OFM PAP PE PG PHOL
PJW PM PPS PR PRANDA PS PT QH RATCH ROBINS
RS S & J SAMCO SCC SINGER SIS SITHAI SNC SNP SPI
SSF SSI SSSC STA SVI TCAP TF THAI THANI TSTE
TIP TIPCO TK TKT TNITY TNL TOG TRC TRUE
TSTH TTA TTW TVO UAC VGI VNT WACOAL
2S AF AH AHC AIT AJ AKP AKR AMANAH AMARIN
AMATA AP APCO APCS AQUA ARIP AS ASIA AYUD BEAUTY
BEC BFIT BH BJC BJCHI BOL BTNC BWG CCET CGD
CGS CHOW CI CKP CM CMR CSC CSP CSS DCC
DEMCO DNA EA ESSO FE FORTH FPI GENCO GL GLOBAL
GLOW GOLD HOTPOT HTC HTECH HYDRO IFS IHL INET IRC
IRCP ITD KBS KGI KKC KTC L&E LRH LST MAJOR
MAKRO MATCH MBK MBKET MEGA MFC MFEC MJD MODERN MONO
MOONG MPG MTI NC NTV NUSA NWR NYT OGC OISHI
PACE PATO PB PDI PICO PPM PPP PREB PRG PRIN
PTG QLT QTC RCL SABINA SALEE SCBLIF SCCC SCG SEAFCO
SEAOIL SFP SIAM SIRI SKR SMG SMK SMPC SMT SOLAR
SPC SPCG SPPT SST STANLY STEC STPI SUC SWC SYMC
SYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TBSP TEAM TFD TFI THANA THIP THREL
TIC TICON TIW TKS TLUXE TMI TMT TNDT TPC TPCORP
TRT TRU TSC TTCL TUF TVD TWFP UMI UP UPF
UPOIC UT UV UWC VIH WAVE WHA WIN WINNER YUASA
ZMICO
Score Range
< 50%
50‐59%
60‐60%
70‐79%
80‐89%
90‐100%
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)
regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the Securities and
Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company
l isted on the Stock Exchange of Thai land and the Market for Alternative disclosure to the
public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The results, therefore, is from
the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai
Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that data. Phil l ip
Securities (Thai land) of securities company does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of
such survey result.
No logo given
Number of Logo
Results Presentation
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 4 | P a g e
Industry Group Name Sector Name Sector Index
Agro & Food Industry[AGRO] Agribusiness AGRI
Food & Beverage FOOD
Consumer Products[CONSUMP] Fashion FASHION
Home & Office Products HOME
Personal Products & Pharmaceuticals PERSON
Financials [FINCIAL] Banking BANK
Finance & Securities FIN
Insurance INSUR
Industrials [INDUS] Automotive AUTO
Industrial Materials & Machinery IMM
Packaging PKG
Paper & Printing Materials PAPER
Petrochemicals & Chemicals PETRO
Steel STEEL
Property & Construction[PROPCON] Construction Materials CONMAT
Construction Services CONS
Property Development PROP
Property Fund & REITs PF&REIT
Resources [RESOURC] Energy & Utilities ENERG
Mining MINE
Services [SERVICE] Commerce COMM
Media & Publishing MEDIA
Health Care Services HELTH
Tourism & Leisure TOURISM
Professional Services PROF
Transportation & Logistics TRANS
Technology [TECH] Electronic Components ETRON
Information & Communication Technology ICT
PSR Rating SystemCapital Gain Recommendation
> +10% Buy
0% to + 10% Neutral
< 0% Sell
Remarks
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a
stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative
undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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