1

Ekonomikas apskats

2011.gada 31.augustā

2

Pasaules ekonomikas izaugsme palēninās

• Lēnāka izaugsme atspoguļojas pasaules tirdzniecības apgrozījuma un rūpnieciskās ražošanas rādītājos

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

% y/y

World industrial production

% y/y

World trade, rhs

3

Divu ātrumu izaugsme ir vērojama joprojām

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2005=100

Emerging markets

Developed countries

Industrial production

World

2005=100

Nenoteiktība pieaug; apsteidzošie rādītāji liecina, ka daļā no pasaules ir iespējama atkārtota recesija

4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1130

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

PMIs

China

US

Euro area

5

Divu ātrumu attīstība vērojama arī eirozonā (1/2)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Finland

Germany

Spain

Index

Greece

6

Divu ātrumu attīstība vērojama arī eirozonā (2/2)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 115.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

Spanish unemployment rate

%

German unemployment rate

%

7

Patērētāju pārliecība un jaunu pasūtījumu apjoms krītas

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Index

Consumer confidence, left

Index

Purchasing managers index,manufacturing, right

8

Eirozonas ekonomikā kopumā izaugsme ir minimāla

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

-12.5

-10.0

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

% q/q

Euroarea GDP, rhs

% 3M/3M

Euroarea industrial production

9

Procentu likmes varētu palikt esošajā līmenī vēl aptuveni gadu

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

% y/y%

ECB policy rate

Euroarea

Euribor 3M

10

Valdību parādi joprojām ir uzmanības centrā

Source: European Commission Spring report 2011

Gross public debt 2011, % of GDP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Est

on

ia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Bu

lga

ria

Ro

ma

nia

Sw

ed

en

Lith

ua

nia

Cze

ch

Slo

ven

ia

Slo

vaki

a

De

nm

ark

La

tvia

Fin

lan

d

Po

lan

d

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Sp

ain

Au

stri

a

Hu

ng

ary

Ge

rma

ny

UK

Fra

nce

Be

lgiu

m

Po

rtu

ga

l

Ire

lan

d

Italy

Gre

ece

11

Budžeta deficītu samazināšana turpināsies

Source: European Commission Spring report 2011

General government budget deficit 2011, % of GDP

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Hu

ng

ary

Sw

ed

en

Est

on

ia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Fin

lan

d

Ge

rma

ny

Bu

lga

ria

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Italy

De

nm

ark

Cze

ch

La

tvia

Ro

ma

nia

Slo

vaki

a

Lith

ua

nia

Slo

ven

ia

Fra

nce

Po

lan

d

Po

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

UK

Gre

ece

Ire

lan

d

12

Ekonomikas izaugsme Baltijā šogad bijusi straujāka nekā gaidīts

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

Lithuania

% y/y GDP % y/y

Estonia

Latvia

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters EcoWin

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 101

2

3

4

5

6

1

2

3

4

5

6

EUR bn

Latvia

Estonia

GDP, SA

Lithuania

EUR bn

13

Tālāka eksporta izaugsme ir apdraudēta

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

% y/yExports

% y/y

Note: 3M mov. avg.

Euroarea

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

99 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1150

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

LVL mnLatvia, exportsLVL mn

14

Pieprasījums vietējā tirgū pieaug lēnām

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

% y/y Retail sales % y/y

Estonia

Lithuania

Latvia

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Lithuania

Index Consumer confidence Index

Estonia

Latvia

15

Nodarbinātības rādītāji ir nedaudz uzlabojušies

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 113

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

%

Estonia

Lithuania

Unemployment rate

%

Latvia

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

% y/y

Estonia*

*3M mov. avg.

Average gross wages

% y/y

Latvia*

Lithuania

16

Uzkrājumi nedaudz pieaug, izsniegto kredītu kopējais apjoms samazinās

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% y/y

Deposits

Latvia

% y/y

Estonia

Lithuania

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

% y/y

Loans

Estonia

% y/y

Lithuania

Latvia

17

Inflācijas virsotne šogad jau ir aiz muguras

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Lithuania

% y/yCPI

% y/y

Estonia Latvia

18

Neskatoties uz satricinājumiem pasaulē, finanšu tirgus uzskata Baltiju par “drošu ostu”

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters EcoWin

Jan

09

Apr Jul Oct Jan

10

Apr Jul Oct Jan

11

Apr Jul

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

3000

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

3000

Basispoints

Greece

CDS, 5Y

Lithuania

Basispoints

Latvia

Estonia

Germany

19

Procentu likmes ir pieaugušas tikai nedaudz

Note: Due to limited liquidity the Baltic interest rates are only indicative of real market levels

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

%%

Euribor 3M

Rigibor 3M

Vilibor 3M

30.8.2011 3M 6M 12M 24M

Euribor 3M 1.54 1.45 1.60 1.60 2.10

Vilibor 3M 1.86 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.40

Rigibor 3M 0.85 0.95 1.40 1.70 2.20

20

Paldies!

Andris StrazdsVecākais ekonomists

andris.strazds@nordea.com+371 67 096 096

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