Entscheidungsverhalten von Finanzmarktakteuren

– eine soziologische Betrachtung

Klaus Kraemer

AWG – Austrian Working Group on Banking and Finance

Graz, 26/27.11.2010

1. Efficient market theory / Portfolie theory

2. Behavioral finance

3. Sociology of financial markets: „expectations of expectations“

4. Isomorphistic expectations

5. Divergent expectations

6. Belief in profitability as a social process:The role of ideas

- personal charisma vs. charismatic idea

- new cultural framing of market forecast

- non-economic idea provides the vehicle for the economic forecast

Cover of Meeker & DePuy's landmark 1995 report

1. Efficient market theory / Portfolie theory

2. Behavioral finance

3. Sociology of financial markets: „expectations of expectations“

4. Isomorphistic expectations

5. Divergent expectations

6. Belief in profitability as a social process:The role of ideas

- personal charisma vs. charismatic idea

- new cultural framing of market forecast

- non-economic idea provides the vehicle for the economic forecast

7. Social cycle of belief in profitability

Social cycle of belief in profitability

emergence of an idea

rise

routinizationcodification

disenchantment

rise of new ideas &

communities of beliefers

Kontakt

Univ.-Prof. Dr. Klaus KraemerInstitut für SoziologieKarl-Franzens-Universität GrazUniversitätsstraße 15/G48010 Grazwww.uni-graz.at/sozwww/ klaus.kraemer@uni-graz.at