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코로나와플랫폼 경제
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AI 기반 기업의 성장과AI-Lockin-Loop에 따른독과점 경향
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the rise ofthe AI-Powered Companies
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& monopolistic tendenciesbased on AI-Lockin-Loop
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Winners& Losers
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Price Change - First Half 2020:
Amazon(42.9%)
Apple(24.2%)Microsoft(29.0%)
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Price Change - First Half 2020
Boeing: -43.7%
Expedia: -24%
Delta Air Lines: -47.5%United Airlines: -55.4%강정수 8
Price Change - First Half 2020
Zoom; 272.6%
Tesla: 158.1%Nvidia: 61.5%
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코로나COVID-19Pandemic
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Qs!
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Fear & Dread
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fear: [일반적인 공포, 두려움]을 의미dread: 마주하고 싶지 않은,그러나 [마주해야하는 구체적 공포, 두려움]
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in uncertain times불확실의 시대
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Sharp discontinuities
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Before CoronaAfter CoronaPost-Corona
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a cliché
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Fear& Dread
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We start to seeour fellow humanas a potential enemy
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Fear& Dread
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The Stress ofLockdown
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It's not just the viruswe fear
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but the future itself.
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seeing the futurenot as a promisebut as a threat
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Qs!
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climate crisis?
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machine crisis?
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AI-Impact on Productivity
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$13trn
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$13trn? = nearly China's GDP
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AI-Impact = Fire or Electricity
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Is AI reallya world changing technology?
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Will AIhavea world-alteringimpact?강정수 38
AI = machine learninghave mademuch progress.
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in the early 2010srecognizing patterns in data(images, speech, etc.)강정수 40
improved algorithmsmore powerful computersmore data
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powerfulpattern-recognitiontools
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AI= a general-purpose= technology
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affectingentire economies
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Geoffrey Hinton: "in five years", "might be ten years" (2017)
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medical diagnosis?
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CoronaCovid-19
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by handwith telephone callswith shoe leather
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Workers replaced by robots?
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a wave of unemployment
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automation technologiesacceleratedbased on AI-Technology
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automation technologiesaimed at reducing laborby substitutingcheaper capital강정수 56
displacedworkers
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DisplacementEffect
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Lilly Irani“Automation doesn’t
replace labor. (...)It displaces it.”강정수 59
automation technologiesenabled the creation ofnew tasks
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ReinstatementEffect
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Mixed effectson labor demand!
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the future of work?
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a race betweenautomation andnew,labor-intensive tasks강정수 64
task content of productiondisplacement effectreinstatement effect강정수 65
market failurescounterbalancing policies
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Self-driving cars
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Where'smy self-driving car?
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Is the AV TechnologyAround the Corner?
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Sacha Arnoud, Director of Engineering (Waymo) (2018.2)
“When you’re 90% done, you still have 90% to go,”
The first “90% of the technology takes 10% of the time.”
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Risk 1
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Risk 2: safe “islands” around cities
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Gatik
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"The state of AI hypehas far exceeded
the state of AI science,
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the Hype Cycle of Gartner
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Face Recognition
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Black Lives Matter
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AI has beenfar more successful!
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electricityin the 20th century
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the cloudin the 21st century
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AI's potential?!
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the effectof slowingits adoption
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idiot savant
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The AI Technologyneedanother breakthrough!
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AI Winter
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AI summer
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warmer& brighter
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AI-Traps
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NOT:AI winter iscoming again!
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BUTan autumnal breeze
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“When you’re 90% done,you still have 90% to go,”
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Risk 3:Platform-Monopoly
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Monopsony
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AI-Lockin-Loop
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Network Effects▶︎ better Services▶︎ Market Power▶︎ economies of scale강정수 105
abuse of market power
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the best(not good enough)
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The regionalitylost almostall of its relevance.
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vertical integration
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Expanding horizontally
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acqui-hirecompetition reduced
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acquisitions
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The concentration of big tech
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MAFAAsMicrosoft, Apple, Facebook,
Amazon and Alphabet
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outdated definitionof monopoly
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consumer welfarelow prices
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Q: a new competition?
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2 recommendations
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1. no acquisitionWhatsApp, Instagram
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2. Exclusivity clauses
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We need a broad discussion
about economies of scale & network effects
of the digital economy.
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