ESPECIES MIGRATORIAS Y CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO

8/6/2019 ESPECIES MIGRATORIAS Y CAMBIO CLIMTICO

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migratory species and climate changei c ev

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Published by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Secretariat o the Conventionon the Conservation o Migratory Species o Wild Animals (CMS).

Migratory Species and Climate Change:Impacts of a Changing Environment on Wild AnimalsUNEP / CMS Secretariat, Bonn, Germany. 68 pages.

Produced by UNEP / CMS Convention on Migratory Species and DEFRACoordinator Heidrun Frisch, CMS Secretariat, E-mail: [email protected] & Proo Reading Robert Vagg, Helene HepworthPublishing Manager Muriel M. MannertDesign Karina Waedt

2006 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) / Convention on Migratory Species (CMS).This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any orm or educational or non-prot purposes withoutspecial permission rom the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement o the source is made. UNEP would appreciatereceiving a copy o any publication that uses this publication as a source.

No use o this publication may be made or resale or or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without priorpermission in writing rom the United Nations Environment Programme.

DISCLAIMERThe contents o this volume do not necessarily refect the views o UNEP or contributory organizations.The designationsemployed and the presentations do not imply the expression o any opinion whatsoever on the part o UNEP or contri-butory organizations concerning the legal status o any country, territory, city or area in its authority, or concerning thedelimitation o its rontiers or boundaries.

Copies o this publication are available rom theUNEP / CMS SecretariatUnited Nations Premises in BonnHermann-Ehlers-Str. 1053113 Bonn, GermanyTel (+49 228) 815 24 01/02Fax (+49 228) 815 24 49E-mail: [email protected]

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ISBN 3 93 74 29 09 3 Commersons Dolphin (Cephalorhynchus commersonii), Miguel Iniguez

imprint


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One o the greatest environmental and development challenges

in the twenty-rst century will be that o controlling and coping

with climate change. The overwhelming majority o scientists

now agree that human activity is having a signicant impact on

the climate .

KofAnnan,InLargerFreedom.

TowardsDevelopment,SecurityandHumanRightsorAll,2005.


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ForeWordsThe impacts o Climate Change on biodiversity are alreadyvisible. Studies show clearly that changes in distribution andbehaviour o a large number o species are the consequence oshits in local or regional climate, weather patterns and result-ing changes o vegetation and habitat quality. The work o theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has also made usall aware that Climate Change is likely to be the main driver obiodiversity loss in uture. The impacts o Climate Change causeadditional pressures on ecosystems that are already stressedby overuse, degradation, ragmentation and loss o total area. In

combination, these actors reduce not only ecosystem resilience,but also human options or coping with a changing environment.It is evident that some species and geographic areas are ound

to be at greater risk than others and there is reason to expectmigratory animals to be badly aected. Animals and their migra-

tion patterns already suer, and are likely to do so even more inthe uture rom changes in their critical habitats and shits in theirgeographic coverage. Replacement o tundra by orest in theArctic, habitat loss in Europe, desertication in Northern Arica,

sea level rise in Asia and the Pacic, hurricanes in the Caribbean,and rising temperatures in polar regions are just a ew o the mostproblematic changes which we are expecting already.Most o these eects cannot be prevented or reversed in a short

time. It is necessary, thereore, to improve the ability o species toadapt to the changes in their environment. Ecosystem resilienceneeds to be enhanced and the connectivity o habitats improved

to allow or necessary shits in ranges and unhindered migration.This publication is an aid in raising awareness by highlightingsome case studies, assessing impacts and identiying possiblesolutions and mitigation measures. It will give decision makersand environmental experts an excellent overview o the links be-

tween Climate Change impacts and migratory species.

Our climate is changing and this change is aecting wild birdsand animals. Disrupted breeding, barriers to migration andincreased disease transmission are just some o the threatsmigratory species ace rom Climate Change. In line with theleading role the UK has long taken in conservation and research,my ministry commissioned a study into the links between ClimateChange and the abundance, distribution and behaviour o migra-

tory species. Published in late 2005, the report makes or somealarming reading.Even the limited knowledge available suggests that projectedchanges in climate during the twenty-rst century, coupledwith land-use change and the spread o alien or exotic specieswill hinder not only migration and successul breeding, but willalso limit the availability o suitable habitats or some speciesand could, ultimately, lead to their extinction. The report pointsout that migratory species are already changing their behaviour,some no longer migrate south rom the UK in the winter, andothers are arriving in their breeding areas 2-3 weeks earlier than30 years ago. As or the uture, up to 1/3 o turtle breeding sites

in the Caribbean could be lost with a predicted sea-level rise o metres and the birth rate o whales is expected to all as sea

temperatures rise.DEFRA is committed to continue addressing the adverse conse-quences o Climate Change with even stronger resolve, workingwith other countries and partner organisations, such as theConvention on Migratory Species. We believe that only interna-

tional and cross-sectoral cooperation can provide the solutionswhich will allow migratory species to adapt to a changing envi-ronment. I trust this publication will increase awareness o theeects o a changing climate on migratory species, and triggerpolicy and conservation actions to mitigate them. DEFRA standsready to assist these eorts both at the national and the inter-national level.

Achim Steiner

Executive Director o UNEP

Barry Gardiner MP

Parliamentary Under-Secretary, Department

or Environment Food and Rural Aairs, UK


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TTThe impacts o a steadily changing climate, such as rising globalaverage temperatures and increases in requency and severityo extreme events, droughts and foods, are already aectinghuman well-being, biodiversity and ecosystems, economies andsocieties worldwide. The scientic evidence on Climate Changeand its impacts is rapidly becoming clearer and more precise.Aware o the seriousness o this global problem, governmentsaround the world are engaged in tackling the challenges posedby Climate Change. In 1992 they adopted the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change, ollowed by theKyoto Protocol in 1997. While the Convention provides a broadplatorm or governments to join eorts in striving to stabilizeconcentrations o greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and toprepare or the inevitable impacts o Climate Change, the KyotoProtocol sets out specic emission reduction commitments orindustrialized countries that are Party to it.Climate change is a highly complex problem, closely interlinkedwith many environmental challenges. The impacts o ClimateChange pose additional pressures on ecosystems and biodiver-sity, in particular on highly vulnerable migratory species. At

the same time, the underlying causes o many environmentalproblems, including Climate Change and loss o biodiversity,and the solutions to these problems, are oten interlinked andmutually reinorcing. They concern the patterns o industrialactivities, use o energy, agricultural production, and land use.This publication illustrates the inter-linkages between ClimateChange and migratory species by providing numerous examplesand outlining possible solutions. I trust it will help raise aware-ness o the consequences o a changing climate on this uniquegroup o animals whose survival depends on a large number odierent habitats and climate conditions around the globe.

The unique way o lie o migratory animals, be it birds, marine orterrestrial mammals, sh, marine turtles, or insects, illustrates likeno other phenomenon the connectivity o ecosystems across theglobe. While Climate Change has very dierent aces in dierentregions, these animals need to adjust their migration patternsaccordingly i they are to survive. Migratory species are especial-ly at risk due to Climate Change because they require separatebreeding, wintering, and migration habitats o high quality andin suitable locations. Oten, one or more o these habitats couldbe at risk because o changing temperature ranges, hydrological

patterns and habitat loss due to increasing human pressures.The Convention on Migratory Species has long been taking an in-

terest in the impacts o Climate Change on wildlie. The ScienticCouncil ormed a working group in 1997 to assess the relevanceo studies conducted by other bodies or the work o CMS. Since

then, results o such assessments show more and more clearlythat Climate Change places yet another severe pressure on manyspecies. Oten, decreasing population sizes can be attributed tohabitat conversion, pollution, migration barriers or unsustainable

use. In many cases, shits in range and habitats are not possibledue to ragmented landscapes, very specic needs or limitedgenetic variability caused by sharp population declines. Also,competition systems are being altered, avouring or exampleregional migrants over long-distance travellers. Upset ecologicalbalances, along with milder winters in many parts o the world,increase problems with invasive alien species.These complex issues cannot easily be addressed. We urge deci-sion makers around the world thereore to strive to enhance eco-

system resilience and promote ecological connectivity to allowmigration, genetic exchange as well as range shits in reaction

to changing environmental conditions. The papers in this bro-chure identiy the need or coordinated research, monitoring andconservation throughout a species range something or whichCMS provides the ideal ramework.

Ivo de Boer

Executive Secretary, UNFCCC

Robert Hepworth,

Executive Secretary o the UNEP

Convention on Migratory Species


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contents

1. i bw Bv ......................8 c c

Manuel GuariguataSecretariat o the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)

2. Bv c c: .......................12 W w w, W w ?

a g pv

Peter Boye and Frank Klingenstein

Federal Agency or Nature Conservation, Germany

3. Vb a ....................................18i hb m s e e a n a

C. Max Finlayson

International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka

4. c c m ....................................26a p: s W s

Mark P. Simmonds and Stephen Isaac

The Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society, UK


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5. i c c ..............................34m t: a c s

Colin James Limpus

Queensland Environmental Protection Agency, Brisbane, Australia

6. m W c........................40 c

Humphrey Q.P. Crick

British Trust or Ornithology, UK

7. c c m s ..........46 e s deFra

8. cms r 8.13....................................................59 c c m s

9. aeWa r 3.17 c ........................61 c m Wb

10. a m aeWa .............................................63Bert Lenten

UNEP/AEWA Secretariat


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interlinkages BetWeen BiodiVersity and

B

Manuel GuariguataSecretariat o the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)

Bv c c Biodiversity is dened as the variability among living orga-

nisms rom all sources including diversity within species,

between species and o ecosystems. There is strong evidence

that biodiversity infuences the rate, magnitude, direction,

and delivery o essential ecosystem processes such as pol-

lination, agricultural pest and disease control, nutrient con-

servation in soils, and water purication.

In addition, biodiversity plays a direct role in climate regulation.Biodiversity aects the ability o terrestrial ecosystems to cap-

ture atmospheric carbon, their rates o evapotranspiration andtemperature, all o which aect climate at local and global levels.Biodiversity aects atmospheric carbon sequestration primarily

through its eects on species characteristics, which determinehow much carbon is taken up rom the atmosphere, how muchwill be retained or xed, and how much o this carbon will bereleased back into the atmosphere over time. The appropriatechoice o species is potentially critical or maximizing carbon se-questration in the design and implementation o Climate Changemitigation activities.

The loss o biodiversity as a result o the clearing and burningo vegetation also contributes to global warming through the re-lease o greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Furthermore, asbiodiversity is degraded or lost through human activities, optionsor coping with global Climate Change may be diminished. Thereis evidence that reductions in biodiversity limit ecosystem resi-lience, or its ability to recover to its original state ater natural orhuman-induced disturbances.

c e i c c BvIn its third assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) determined that the global mean surace

temperature has increased by 0.6 degrees Celsius over the lastcentury, and that the decade o the 1990s was the warmest onrecord so ar. Precipitation patterns also changed spatially and

temporally, and global sea level has risen 0.1-0.2 m. It is ore-casted that, by the end o the century, Climate Change and itsimpacts may be the dominant direct driver o biodiversity lossand changes in ecosystem services at the global level. The sce-narios developed by the IPCC project a urther increase in globalmean surace temperature o two to six degrees Celsius above

pre-industrial levels by 2100, increased incidence o foods anddroughts, and urther rises in sea level o several centimetres.

1

Sandstorm in the desert, Kevin Lane / UNEP / Still Pictures


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climate change

All o these changes are already having signicant impacts onbiodiversity and ecosystems, including changes in species dis-tribution, population sizes, the timing o reproduction or migra-tion events, and increases in the requency o pest and diseaseoutbreaks. On average, the spatial distributions o a substantialset o studied species over dierent taxa has shited 6.1 km perdecade towards the poles or 1 m in elevation per decade. Springevents such as fowering and lea fushing are occurring on ave-rage 2.3 days earlier per decade thus aecting the seasonalmovement o species. Unique and highly productive ecosystemssuch as coral rees have undergone major, although sometimespartially reversible, bleaching episodes caused where local seasurace temperatures have increased above the average or thewarmest months.Global Climate Change has been directly blamed or the extinc-

tion o at least one endemic vertebrate species, the golden toad,rom the cloud orests o Costa Rica. It is projected that by 2050,Climate Change will cause the extinction o a substantial numbero the subset o 1000 endemic species currently being analysedglobally. Climate change is projected to hit hardest those spe-cies with intrinsically low population numbers, those inhabitingrestricted or patchy areas, and those circumscribed to limitedclimatic ranges, such as coral rees, mangrove orests, cloudorests, inland water ecosystems, and ecosystems overlyingpermarost. Projected changes in climate are very likely to bewithout precedent during at least the last 10,000 years and willaect biodiversity both directly through changes in temperatureand precipitation, and indirectly through changes in the requen-

cy o disturbances such as res, hurricanes, and storms.In addition to changes in the global climate, human activities areexerting additional pressure on biodiversity and are expected toexacerbate climate-mediated biodiversity loss through land usechange, soil and water pollution, diversion o water to managedecosystems and urban systems, habitat ragmentation, selectiveexploitation o species, and the spread o invasive alien species.These pressures, which usually act in a concerted manner, willalso limit the capacity o species to migrate, and o entire ecosys-

tems to shit in extent in response to changes in temperature.

Bv c m a avThere are signicant opportunities or both mitigating and adapt-ing to Climate Change while enhancing the conservation and sus-

tainable use o biodiversity. Carbon mitigation and adaptationoptions that take into account environmental, social, and eco-nomic considerations oer the greatest potential or synergisticimpacts. Forests, agricultural lands, and other terrestrial eco-systems oer signicant mitigation potential through aorest-ation and reorestation, as well as through agriculture, grazingland, and orest management. Yet, since mitigation activitiesrepresent long-term endeavours, reducing other pressures onbiodiversity, such as habitat conversion, overharvesting, and

introduction o invasive alien species, constitutes important ad-aptation measures. Other measures include protection, restora-

tion, and maintenance o ecosystem structure and unction inorder to maximize local species diversity and enhance ecosys-

tem resilience.In particular, mitigation o Climate Change through aorestationand reorestation activities, where appropriate managementand adequate site selection and design criteria are in place,can enhance the conservation and use o biodiversity. The

value o a planted orest to biodiversity, however, will depend toa large degree on what was previously on the site and also on

the landscape context in which it occurs. As a concrete exam-

Burning orest, Thailand. Flock o egrets fying past burning

trees, D.Juntawonsup / UNEP / Still Picture


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ple, a reorestation and/or aorestation activity that includesplanting a variety o native tree species or mixtures o singlespecies stands, rather than a vast monoculture is highly likely,while xing atmospheric carbon, to also (i) reduce the probabili-

ty o pest incidence; (ii) restore key watershed unctions; and (iii)promote ecological connectivity between orest ragments andallow migration across altitudinal gradients.

c 2010 BvtAlthough past changes in the global climate resulted in exten-sive species migration and ecosystem reorganization, thesechanges occurred in landscapes that were not as ragmentednor as degraded as those ound today. Thereore, the adaptivecapacity o species and ecosystems in the ace o contemporaryClimate Change may be more limited, and underscores the needor managing existing protected areas or other habitats o highbiological importance in a dynamic way.The need to promote both ecological connectivity and integrat-ed land and water management outside protected areas, whilereducing present threats to biodiversity, should be explicitly

taken into account when managing or biodiversity in the aceo Climate Change. In intensively managed ecosystems suchas armlands, biophysical adaptations to Climate Change canbe relatively straightorward, such as switching plant varieties.In less intensively managed ecosystems, decisions will have tobe made as to whether to minimize or acilitate their change inorder to maintain the supply o ecosystem services in otherwords, planning or adaptation. In particular, lands set aside orconservation pose special challenges. The management o bio-diversity outside reserves will need an o reserve approach

to ensure species dispersal across a habitat matrix that may notalways be avourable and that may cross political boundaries.

To this end, an important determinant o success or managingbiodiversity in the ace o Climate Change is that managers haveavailable in a timely ashion inormation about likely trends inclimate, and a deeper understanding o species adaptations to

the present climate. Likewise, the development o models oplant and animal migration that take into account current pat-

terns o land cover/land use type may be essential or predictingpathways o climate-induced species dispersal across habitatsragmented and/or degraded by human actions.

Since biodiversity is essential to human well-being and surviv-al, by regulating climate and maintaining ecosystem resilience,among other services, its loss has to be controlled in the long

term. In 2002, the Conerence o the Parties to the Conventionon Biological Diversity adopted the target to achieve by 2010a signicant reduction o the current rate o biodiversity loss at

the global, regional, and national level as a contribution to pover-ty alleviation and to the benet o all lie on Earth and, in 2004adopted a ramework that includes a number o global sub-

targets and a set o associated indicators aimed at assessingprogress in achieving this 2010 target.Specically, one global sub-target, to maintain and enhanceresilience o the components o biodiversity to adapt to ClimateChange, responds to the act that even i all anthropogenicgreenhouse gas emissions would be stopped today, the eectso global Climate Change would be expected to continue or dec-ades. Many o the necessary actions to achieve the 2010 targetand this particular global sub-target are incorporated into theprogrammes o work o the Convention. Specically, this sub-

target can be achieved i areas o high importance or biodiver-sity and unctioning ecological networks are maintained withinprotected areas or by other conservation mechanisms, and iproactive measures are taken both to protect endangered spe-cies and acilitate their movement. The rate o climate-inducedbiodiversity loss o targeted habitats and species could then bereduced.

Presented at the Roundtable on Climate Change and Migratory

Species, Nairobi, 19 November 2005


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SourcesMillennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Ecosystems and Hu-man Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis. World Resources Insti-

tute, Washington, D.C.

Secretariat o the Convention on Biological Diversity. 2003. Inter-linkages Between Biological Diversity and Climate Change.Advice on the integration o biodiversity considerations into the

implementation o the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change and its Kyoto Protocol. CBD Technical Seriesno. 10.

Glacier, Alaska, Prince William Sound, USA, P. L. Sherman / UNEP / Still Pictures

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2002. ClimateChange and Biodiversity. IPCC Technical Paper V.


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C

a g pvPeter Boye and Frank KlingensteinFederal Agency or Nature Conservation, Germany

iClimate Change is a phenomenon which currently can be

recognized by many indicators in Germany. The impacts

o Climate Change aect not only species and ecosystems

but also the economy and the people o Germany. Nature

conservation is aced with new challenges and thoughts on

appropriate strategies and measures to cope with the most

likely developments are essential.

The ollowing text deals with the status and perspectives o

German nature conservation under Climate Change, taking

the country as an example or Central Europe.

c i cc gIn Germany weather conditions have been monitored through-out the country or more than a century. Data indicates that themean temperatures are increasing continuously (Leuschner &schipka 2004). Since 1870 the annual mean temperatures havebeen recorded in Karlsruhe in southwest Germany. During this

period it has been shown that the mean annual temperaturesfuctuated but with a rising trend. The lowest mean temperaturewas 8.2C in 1876, and the highest in 1994 and 2000 at 12.2C.The pattern o the seasonal weather conditions is more extreme.Recently not only hot summers and rosty winter periods occur-red more requently, but also intense storms and heavy rainallwere observed. The River Elbe in Saxony fooded in 2002, when

the historic city centre o Dresden was damaged by the run o owater into the river rom the mountains o Saxony and the north-

ern Czech Republic.

Responding to changes in the seasons timing and mean tempe-ratures, plants and animals have changed their specic pheno-logies (MenzeL & Fabian 2001). In springtime many plant speciesfower earlier than they did a century ago. In migratory birds,which breed in Germany and stay in southern Europe or Arica

during the winter, impacts o Climate Change can clearly beobserved. Migrants travelling over short or medium distancesarrive earlier and stay longer in their breeding areas. Such spe-cies may benet rom a higher rate o reproduction rom earlyoccupation o breeding sites, consecutive broods or other e-ects (Dunn 2004, hppop & hppop 2005). However, long distancemigrants crossing the Sahara desert are less adaptable and o-

ten keep their traditional timing o spring arrivals and autumndepartures in Germany (Lehikoinen et al. 2004).

Higher mean temperatures support the extension o the distribu-tion ranges o species occurring in the south o Germany. SomeMediterranean species indicate this clearly: The Praying Mantis(Mantis religiosa), ormerly restricted to the southernmost val-

BiodiVersity and climate change: What2

European Bee-Eater (Merops apiaster), NABU / Pollin


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do We knoW, What can We do?

ley o the River Rhine is spreading northward; European Bee-Eaters (Merops apiaster), which were inrequent in Germany arenow regular breeders in many regions o the country; and KuhlsPipistrelle Bat (Pipistrellus kuhlii) has been observed north o theAlps or a couple o years.The opposite eect also occurs rom Climate Change impacts:Species lose their central European habitats and move theirrange northwards, as documented in the Ru (Philomachus pug-nax) (zckLer 2002).

Warmer conditions not only open the way or northward exten-sion o natural ranges but the survival o introduced species isalso higher. So Climate Change is connected with increasing pro-blems o invasive alien species in central Europe. A prominentexample is the Pacic oyster (Crassostrea gigas), introduced to

the North Sea in 1964 or economic reasons. This species needsa certain water temperature or reproduction and or this reasonwas unable to leave aquaculture. However, as water tempera-

tures changed, Pacic oysters have reproduced in the North Seasince 1990 and are currently displacing native oyster species in

the Wadden Sea (nehring 1999; nehring & kLingenstein 2005).

F e pAs the ecological processes connected to Climate Change conti-nue, one can predict that vegetation composition in Germany willbe altered, too. Plants typically growing under Atlantic climateconditions with mild winters will expand their range eastwardsas the continental climate infuence weakens. This may espe-cially be the case or many winter green species like the Englishholly (Ilex aquiolium) which could double its range by the year2050, thus changing signicantly the understorey vegetation obeech orests in eastern Germany (WaLtheretaL. 2005a).With changes in the vegetation composition o habitats the alti-

tudinal zoning o plant and animal species will be altered. Arc-tic-alpine specialists on mountaintops will ace competition withother species which did not previously grow in higher altitudes.This development can already be observed on mountaintops o

the Alps (WaLtheretaL. 2005b). As one result mountain specialistspecies may become threatened or even become extinct. As asecond result characteristic vegetation types and zones, as theywere known biologically and geographically, may vanish.

It can also be expected that the alteration o fora and auna willcontinue as species rom regions with another climate becomesuccessul invaders in Germany. A special problem or natureconservation will come rom an increasing rate o alien speciesbeing introduced unintentionally through trade and tourism.Migratory species will be heavily aected by uture climate de-velopments. The conservation o these species will have multipleproblems as a result o changes in habitats used or breeding,stop over rests or wintering o migrants, changes in the compe

titive systems among species, e.g. predators and their prey, andadaptive changes o the migration routes used by the animals(bairLein & hppop 2004). These conservation problems will beadded to those already encountered by migratory species, e.g.population decrease, habitat ragmentation and poor monitoringdata.

Kuhls Pipistrelle Bat (Pipistrellus kuhlii),

Markus Nol, http://markus.nol.org


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c n cvMore research and monitoring o Climate Change impacts onplant and animal species is essential. Bird ringing has proved

to be the most important method in observing ongoing deve-lopments and adaptations among migratory species. For thisreason the distribution and occurrence o populations should besurveyed and the migratory and reproductive behaviour o indi-viduals has to be observed and recorded.For the implementation o appropriate conservation measures it

is important to develop regional scenarios or the coming centu-ries. Such scenarios should be based on todays knowledge o

the ecology and habitat preerence o species as well as gene-ral climate and circulation models. They may be used to assess

the vulnerability o species and ecosystems to Climate Changewith awareness o their limitations (gooDess & paLutikoF 1992).There are good examples or regional scenarios available, e.g.or waders, geese and polar bears in the Arctic, cetaceans inScottish waters, and marine turtles in the Caribbean Sea (FishetaL. 2005, LinDstrM & agreLL 1999, MacLeoD et al. 2005, zckLer &Lysenko 2000).Species conservation should ocus on the protection o vitalpopulations, consisting o many individuals and showing suc-cessul reproduction. Another problem is establishing largeenough areas under conservation management in order to allowviable populations o the dierent animal species. In Germany,such areas with suitable habitats are ew as the developmento settlements, industries and trac lines caused intensive

ragmentation o habitats and landscape (bunDesaMt Fr naturschutz 2004). As insucient connectivity o habitats can limit themovement and migration in many species, these large-scalelandscape developments hinder range shits as an adaptation

to Climate Change.To conserve migration routes o animals it is important to protectand improve the connectivity o habitats. On a small scale thereare many possible measures to enable animal movement acrosshuman structures like roads, railways and canals. However, on

a large scale it is very dicult to save a network o connectedhabitats in Europe. The Natura 2000 network o the EuropeanCommunity, the Emerald Network o the Council o Europe and

the Pan European Biological and Landscape Diversity Strategyare ambitious programmes or habitat conservation, but withlimited options in habitat connectivity (ssyMank et aL. 1998, vanopstaL 2000). More successul is the idea o The Green Belt, whichmeans the conversion o the ormer borderlines between NATO

and communist countries into a belt o habitats. Last centurysstrip o death shall become a lie line across Europe (bunDesaMtFr naturschutz 2004).Although the instruments o nature conservation to ace the e-ects o Climate Change will be the same as those used to dealwith traditional conservation problems, targets and strategieshave to be reviewed. Some aims and ideas may prove to be un-realistic in a changing climate. Conservation strategies mustconsider the international or even global situation. In a country

like Germany it is essential to set priorities, e.g. or the conserva-tion o species with a higher percentage o the population livingin or migrating through our country.

The Green Belt a lie line across Europe,

BUND-Projektbro Grnes Band / Klaus Leidor


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Another challenge is the education o uture conservationistswho will have to deal with ever changing ecosystems. Theyshould know about dynamic processes in nature and learn theway o dynamic thinking. Good knowledge o vegetation deve-lopment or population dynamics would be essential. This could

encourage biologists out o their modern laboratories and intothe eld again to study nature in situ which would probably bethe only positive eect o Climate Change.Finally, to slow down Climate Change processes nature conserv-ation policies must support the work on national and interna-

tional levels to improve the use o renewable energy sourcesand to protect natural CO2 sinks such as swamps, bogs andorests (king2005).The ecological eects o Climate Change especially on speciesshould be communicated among ecologists and to the publicmore intensively (vitousek 1994). The main messages should be:

Migratory species are among the organisms most aected byClimate Change. Their problems are very diverse in dierentregions o the earth, e.g. replacement o tundra by orest in

the Arctic, habitat loss in Europe, desertication in northernArica, sea level rise in the Asian Pacic, hurricanes in the

Caribbean, and rising temperatures in Antarctic waters. Current methods and instruments o nature conservation

are appropriate to ace the challenges connected to ClimateChange. There is no need to call or innovations or wait or

them. Climate change is one element o global change, which is ad-

ditionally characterized by human population growth, habitatdegradation, habitat ragmentation, urbanisation, desertica-

tion, pollution, alteration o the global nitrogen cycle and losso biodiversity.

It is undamental to protect nature in a changing world. Thereis no reason to lose hope or stop conservation actions.

Educating uture generations, T. Martin / DeWiSt Beech orest, NABU / Christoph Heinrich


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cClimate change is a process which impacts species and eco-systems that can be observed in Germany. It is a global chal-lenge or nature conservation to ace the development which isoreseeable by uture climate models and relevant or biodivers-ity. The impact o Climate Change can only be managed throughinternational cooperation, especially in the case o migratoryspecies. The Convention on Migratory Species o Wild AnimalsCMS is the best international body to cope with Climate Change

and its impact on migratory species.

Reerences

Bairlein, F. & O. Hppop (2004): Migratory uelling and globalclimate change. In: Mller, A.P., W. Fiedler & P. Berthold(eds.):Birds and climate change. Advances in Ecological Research 35,p. 33-47.

Bundesamt r Naturschutz (ed.) (2004): Daten zur Natur 2004.Bonn, 474 p.

Dunn, P. (2004): Breeding dates and reproductive perormance.In: Mller, A.P., W. Fiedler & P. Berthold (eds.): Birds and climate

change. Advances in Ecological Research 35, p. 67-87.Fish, M.R., I.M. Ct, J.A. Gill, A.P. Jones, S. Rensho & A.R.Watkinson (2005): Predicting the impact o sea-level rise on Ca-ribbean sea turtle nesting habitat. Conservation Biology 19: 482-491.

Goodess, C.M. & J.P. Palutiko (1992): The development o regio-nal climate Scenarios and the ecological impact o GreenhouseGas warming. In: Woodward, F.I. (ed.) The ecological conse-

quences o global climate change. Advances in Ecological Re-search 22, p. 33-62.

Hppop, K. & O. Hppop (2005): Atlas zur Vogelberingung auHelgoland. Teil 3: Vernderungen von Heim- und Wegzugzeitenvon 1960 bis 2001. Vogelwarte 43: 217-248.

King, D. (2005): Climate change: the science and the policy. Jour-nal o Applied Ecology 42: 779-783.


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Lehikoinen, E., T.H. Sparks & M. Zalakevicius (2004): Arrivaland departures. In: Mller, A.P., W. Fiedler & P. Berthold (eds.):Birds and climate change. Advances in Ecological Research 35,p. 1-31.

Leuschner, C. & F. Schipka (2004): Vorstudie Klimawandel undNaturschutz in Deutschland. BN-Skripten 115, Bonn, 33 S.

Lindstrm, . & J. Agrell (1999): Global change and possibleeects on the migration and reproduction o arctic-breedingwaders. Ecological Bulletins 47: 145-159.

MacLeod, C.D., S.M. Bannon, G.J. Pierce, C. Schweder, J.A.Learmonth, J.S. Herman & R.J. Reid (2005): Climate change and

the cetacean community o north-west Scotland. BiologicalConservation 124: 477-483.

Menzel, A. & P. Fabian (2001): Vernderungen der orstlichen Ve-getationszeit in den letzten Jahrzehnten in Deutschland. Beitr-ge zur Forstwirtschat und Landschatskologie 35: 188-191.

Nehring, S. (1999): Biocoenotic signals in the pelagial o theWadden Sea: The possible biological eects o climate change.Senckenbergiana marit. 29, Suppl., 101-106.

Nehring, S. & F. Klingenstein (2005): Alien species in the WaddenSea - A challenge to act. Wadden Sea Newsletter 2005 (1): 13-16.

Opstal, A.J.F.M. van (2000): The Architecture o the Pan Euro-pean Ecological Network: Suggestions or Concept and Criteria. Rapport IKC Natuurbeheer 37, Wageningen, 100 p.

Ssymank, A., U. Hauke, C. Rckriem & E. Schrder (1998): Daseuropische Schutzgebietssystem NATURA 2000. Schriten-reihe r Landschatspfege und Naturschutz 53, Bonn, 560 p.

Vitousek, P.M. (1994): Beyond global warming: ecology and glo-bal change. Ecology 75: 1861-1876.

Walther, G.-R., S. Berger & M.T. Sykes (2005a): An ecologicalootprint o climate change. Proceedings o the Royal Society:Biological Sciences 272: 1427-1432.

Walther, G.-R., S. Beissner & C.A. Burga (2005b): Trends in theupward shit o alpine plants. Journal o Vegetation Science16: 541-548.

Zckler, C. (2002): A comparison between tundra and wet grass-land breeding waders with special reerence to the Ru (Phi-lomachus pugnax). Schritenreihe r Landschatspfege undNaturschutz 74, Bonn, 115 p.

Zckler, C. & I. Lysenko (2000): Water birds on the edge. First cir-cumpolar assessment o climate change impact on Arctic breed-ing water birds. WCMC, Cambridge, 29 p.


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M

VulneraBility assessment oF important3e e a n a

C. Max FinlaysonInternational Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka

i

Many wetlands in eastern Asia and northern Australia havebeen degraded and are under increasing pressure rom the

introduction o alien species, water pollution, urban encroach-

ment, reclamation and inlling, and hydrological disruption

(Revenga et al. 2000; Storrs and Finlayson, 1997; Finlayson

and DCruz 2005; Dudgeon et al. 2005).The inventory inorma-

tion base or addressing these issues is uneven and in places

absent (Finlayson et al. 1999). At the same time these wet-

lands are under threat rom Climate Change and sea level

rise, as shown by analyses undertaken almost a decade ago

in Kakadu National Park, northern Australia (Bayliss et al.

1998; Eliot et al. 1999), Olango Island, the Philippines (Mapalo

1999), and the Yellow River delta, China (Li et al. 1999).

Not only do these analyses provide a striking example o the potential loss or change that could occur at individual sites, butas they are linked with each other along the East Asian-Austral-asian Flyway (www.wetlands.org/IWC/awc/waterbirdstrategy/

Netwirk.htm) they also illustrate the interconnectedness o wet-land sites and the necessity to manage within the wider context.Thus, the value and management o the wetlands in Kakadu Na-

tional Park are not separable rom the value and managemento the networks o wetlands that support migratory birds acrossmuch o eastern Asia. Management o the network o importantsites that occur within the fyway (Fig. 1) is encouraged through

the Asia-Pacic Waterbird Strategy. With this background theimplications o Climate Change or wetlands in northern Australiaand eastern Asia are discussed with particular reerence to theanalyses undertaken at particular sites. Reerence is also made

to the recent initiative by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands toprovide guidance on vulnerability assessment o wetlands.

mThe assessments in northern Australia and eastern Asia werebased on a model provided by Kay and Waterman (1993) and in-cluded the ollowing steps: Description o the sites, including physical, biological and

socio-economic attributes; Identication o natural and anthropogenic orcing actors,

including predicted Climate Change and sea level rise, andtheir impacts;

Assessment o the vulnerability to existing orcing actors; Assessment o the vulnerability to Climate Change and sea

level rise; Documentation o current responses to coastal hazards; Recommendations or uture monitoring and management

strategies; Identication o inormation gaps and research priorities.This included collation o inormation on major land uses, con-servation values and management threats and issues; analy-sis o the major values and benets derived rom the wetland;analysis o sea level rise; identication o possible managementresponses; and identication o necessary training or local con-servation personnel. The assessments at all sites were under-

taken in collaboration with relevant conservation managementauthorities and local communities.Regional Climate Change scenarios were adopted or each sitewith adjustments based on local data. The key actors in the sce-narios or each site were: Kakadu National Park: 1 - 2C increase in temperature by

2030; average rainall increase o 0 - 20 % with a more intensemonsoon; sea level is expected to rise with a best estimate orAustralia o 20 cm 10 cm by 2030.

Olango Island: rise in mean sea level o 30 cm by 2030, and95 cm by 2100; increase in mean global sea surace tempera-

ture o 0.5C by 2010 and 3C by 2030; 20% increase in typhoon

intensity; and a tendency or increased rainall, intensity andrequency.


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haBitats For migratory species

Yellow River delta: rise in relative sea level o 48 cm by 2050;increase in mean air temperature o 1.4C by 2050 and 3C by2100; and increase in annual precipitation o 2 - 4.5% by 2050.

It is important to note that the scenarios are not the same due togeographic dierences and to dierences in the data resources.It is anticipated that some o the outcomes o these assessmentsmay change as more site-specic scenarios are developed andeedback rom climate-related events are considered.

Figure 1:Outline o global shorebird yways (rom International Wader Study Group, map drawn by Rodney West).

W c cBased on the scenarios and available inormation on the bio-physical eatures o the sites and inormation derived rom a va-riety o other investigations the ollowing responses to ClimateChange and sea level rise were projected. The condence in thecomponents o the site projections varied enormously betweenand within sites due to vast dierences in the data resourcesand knowledge about biophysical responses. The extent o the


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inormation available at each site or an assessment o this na-ture varied greatly.In terms o the projections the mapping o areas potentially a-ected by changes in rainall and runo or sea level rise wasraught with uncertainty, especially in relation to vertical scaleso change given the absence o suciently accurate digital ele-vation mapping and by the lack o precision in the climate sce-narios. However, the condence in these projections was, on thewhole, greater than that or the ecological responses which werealso conounded by the uncertainties with the spatial analyseso physical changes. The ecological analyses were weak due

to the absence o basic data on population sizes and dynamicsas well as the inter-relationships with the physical environment.General projections are possible at all sites, but the certainty o

these is greatly aected by the inormation sources. The projections are considered important as they provide managers andscientists with a base or seeking urther inormation in order tobetter inorm management actions. With this note o caution thegeneral projections or each site are given below.

Kakadu National Park: Changes to the wetlands due to sea levelrise, shoreline erosion and saltwater intrusion were consideredimportant and would combine to change both the salt and resh-water wetlands. Change to the wetlands rom Climate Changewould likely include reduction or loss o some components o themangrove ringe along the coast line, colonisation o mangrovespecies along creek lines as an accompaniment to salt water in-

trusion, replacement o reshwater wetlands with saline mudfats;

and extensive loss o Melaleuca (paperbark) trees in reshwaterwetlands. With changes in the wetland vegetation and habitatsthere would also be changes in animal populations, particularlynoticeable would be changes to the community composition anddistribution o bird species and sh in the reshwater wetlands.It is also expected that changes in the biotic resources may havecultural, social and economic consequences or the Aboriginaland non-Aboriginal people living in or visiting the area.Olango Island: Climate change and sea level rise are expected

to place considerable additional stress on Olango Island. Givenits low elevation and topographical relie, more than 10% o thecurrent land mass would be lost in the event o a 95 cm rise in sealevel. In addition, more severe typhoons and storm surges would

result in an even greater portion o the island being subjected toinundation and fooding. Given that the majority o human settle-ments on the island occur in close proximity to the shoreline, thisrepresents a major problem. An increase in sea level would alsoacilitate saltwater intrusion into the underground reshwater

lens, although this could be oset by an increase in rainall. Po-tential eects on the biological attributes include loss o man-grove stands due to an inability to re-colonise inland, bleachingand death o corals due to increased sea surace temperature,and loss o eeding grounds and roosting habitat or resident andmigratory shorebirds. Potential eects on socio-economic attri-butes include the displacement o people, loss o inrastructureand loss o livelihood options.Yellow River Delta: The delta is vulnerable to predicted Climate

Change and sea level rise. Salt marshes and other coastal wet-lands are thought to be particularly vulnerable to permanent in-undation and erosion as a result o sea level rise and increasedstorm surge. This would have fow-on eects to tourism, resh-

Kakadu National Park, C. Max Finlayson


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water supplies, sheries and biodiversity. Sea level rise will alsoresult in a number o other impacts including a reduction in theprotective capacity o the dyke systems. Assuming a 1 m sealevel rise and 2 - 3 m storm surge, approximately 40% o thedelta could be inundated. Saltwater intrusion will also be a majorissue, urther reducing already limited reshwater resources.

The above impacts will have major consequences or both thesocio-economic and biological attributes o the delta.

m iGiven the potential changes to wetlands along the fyway, en-vironmental management issues that may assist in developingeective responses or dealing with change have been identi-ed. As the broad scenario includes large-scale modication o

wetland habitats and environmental changes that may extendacross land uses and jurisdictional bounds, it is anticipated thatexisting management structures will be severely challenged andpossibly unable to implement radical actions that suciently

address concerns o the broader community. Responses thatmay be necessary are introduced below while accepting thatnot all will apply equally at all sites.

1. Systematic examination of perceptions and values with res pect to management of the wetlands and surrounding areas.

Raising awareness o the implications o Climate Change isan important step in changing governmental and communityperceptions.

2. Responsibility and accountability for increased naturalhazards. Across the fyway natural hazards include extremeweather events (e.g. tropical cyclones, monsoonal depres-sions, and heavy rainall) that could disrupt orderly use ocoastal and wetland resources or habitation, industry andcommerce, and necessitate change to planning and nancial

mechanisms.3. Broader and transparent governance structures and pro cesses. Current governance and jurisdiction may not be wellequipped to deal with environmental change across broad

Tidal wetlands in Kakadu National Park, C. Max Finlayson


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Figure 2: Framework or wetland vulnerability assessment (based on inormation provided by Habiba Gitay).

Max Finlayson

Vb a - m

Vb a = r a r p

u b v &

ivv v v

1. r a b present status recent trends

2. r p b sensitivity adaptive capacity

e g p

sv lw m

av h m lw

h

n dv


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sures, such as changes in land use and cover, water regime,

or over-harvesting and overexploitation and invasion by alienspecies. Vulnerability incorporates risk assessment (i.e., the ex-

tent o and exposure to a hazard) and is linked to the stability orresilience and sensitivity o a wetland, as well as the capacity

to cope with one or more hazard. It is a orward-looking pro-cess that is used to assess the probability o a change in thecondition o a wetland in the uture relative to some benchmark(or baseline). In this respect it is time dependent and assesses

the likelihood o change to the wetland caused by some risky

event given the sensitivity and resiliency o the wetland. Theramework or vulnerability assessment (Fig. 2) is drawn rom theOECD state-pressure-response model and the Millennium Eco-system Assessment conceptual ramework, as well as the casestudies mentioned above. Thorough attention should be given toeach step in the ramework and the extent o uncertainty in eachassessed beore conrming the projections the purpose o theramework is to encourage careul analysis o the inormationand the gaps.

Reerences

Bayliss, B.L., Brennan, K.G., Eliot, I., Finlayson, C.M., Hall, R.N.,House, T., Pidgeon, R.W.J., Walden, D. and Waterman, P. 1998.Vulnerability assessment o predicted climate change and sealevel rise in the Alligator Rivers Region, Northern Territory, Aus-

tralia, Supervising Scientist Report 123, Jabiru, Australia.

Dudgeon, D., Arthington, A.A., Gessner, M.O., Kawabata, Z-I.,Knowler, D.J., Leveque, C., Naiman, R.J., Prieur-Richard, A-H.,Soto, D., Stiassny, M.L.J. and Sullivan, C.A. 2005. Freshwater bio-diversity: importance, threats, status and conservation challen-ges. Biological Reviews 81, 163-182.

Eliot, I., Waterman, P. and Finlayson, C.M. 1999. Monitoring andassessment o coastal change in Australias wet-dry tropics,Wetlands Ecology and Management 7, 63-81.

Finlayson, C.M. and DCruz, R. 2005. Inland Water Systems. InMillennium Ecosystem Assessment, Volume 1, Conditions andTrends, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: StrengtheningCapacity to Manage Ecosystem Sustainably or Human Well-being.Finlayson, C.M., Davidson, N.C., Spiers, A.G. and Stevenson, N.J.1999. Global wetland inventory Status and priorities. Marineand Freshwater Research 50, 717727.

Kay, R. and Waterman, P. 1993. Review o the applicability o thecommon methodology or assessment o the vulnerability to sealevel rise to the Australian coastal zone. In: McClean, R. andMimura, N. (eds), Proceedings o the IPCC Eastern Hemisphere

Workshop on Vulnerability Assessment to Sea Level Rise andCoastal Zone Management, Tsukaba, Japan. pp. 237-248.


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Li, P. Juan, J., Liu, L. and Fu, M. 1999. Vulnerability assessment

o the Yellow River Delta to predicted climate change and sealevel rise. In: R.A. van Dam, C.M. Finlayson and D. Watkins (eds),Vulnerability Assessment o Two Major Wetlands in the Asia-Pa-cic Region to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. SupervisingScientist Report 149, Supervising Scientist, Darwin, Australia,pp. 7-74.

Mapalo, A. 1999. Vulnerability assessment o Olango Island topredicted climate change and sea level rise. In: R.A. van Dam,C.M. Finlayson and D. Watkins (eds), Vulnerability Assessmento Two Major Wetlands in the Asia-Paciic Region to ClimateChange and Sea Level Rise. Supervising Scientist Report 149,Supervising Scientist, Darwin, Australia, pp. 75-161.

Revenga, C., Brunner, J., Henninger, N., Kassem, K, and Payne, R.2000. Pilot Analysis o Global Ecosystems: Freshwater Systems.World Resources Institute, Washington D.C., USA.

Storrs, M.J. and Finlayson, C.M. 1997. Overview o the conserv-ation status o wetlands o the Northern Territory, Supervising

Scientist Report 116, Jabiru, Northern Territory, Australia.

4


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O

Mark P. Simmonds and Stephen IsaacThe Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society, UK

iOur global climate is changing and human activities, includ-

ing greenhouse gas emissions, deorestation and ozone de-

pletion are at least in part responsible (Wrsig et al., 2002).

Trying to predict the precise consequences or lie on the

planet is dicult and this is especially true or highly mobilemarine mammal predators. These are inherently dicult to

study and adequately long term data sets dening marine

predators normal biology, ranges and habitats are typically

rare. Indeed, we are now at the point when the links between

global climatic change and predator responses are only just

being explored (Forcada et al., 2005). In addition, the eects

o Climate Change on higher trophic levels can be dicult to

understand because they involve various relationships that

may be non-trivial and nonlinear and, possibly, aected bysignicant time-lags (Lusseau et al., 2004). The constraints o

existing climate models also severely limit predictive ability

or particular species (IWC, 1996) and, in addition, patterns

and trends in species diversity and in the open oceans are

enigmatic (Worms et al., 2005).

Here we review what is known o the impacts o Climate Changeon marine predators and in addition consider the eects causedby normal marine circulation fuctuations, including the El Nio/Southern Oscillation o the Pacic Ocean. Whilst this pheno-menon creates an average surace temperature anomaly oonly 1.6oC, it still has an important negative infuence on coastalupwelling systems that bring nutrients to the surace and uelhighly productive marine ecosystems and sheries.Marine mammals may prove to be important indicators o ClimateChange: many species are highly visible (especially when com-pared with other marine predators) and, as we shall see below,

the species that breed out o water provide an opportunity to mo-nitor both their productivity and that o the ecosystem that theyinhabit. Marine mammal ranges are generally related to species

temperature tolerances (Robinson et al., 2005); hence, temper-

ature is an important dening component o habitat or manyspecies. Some are exclusively ound in warm tropical waters,some in the temperate zones and some only at the poles. Whilstquite a ew species can move between dierent temperatureszones during regular migrations, they may be adapted to par-

ticular temperature regimes at particular parts o their annualcycles. For example, young animals may require warmer watersor their early growth and development. Marine mammals typi-cally exploit patchy prey species that they require in dense con-centrations. Hence their distributions tend to refect both staticeatures (such as depth and slope) and more mobile ones (suchas ronts and upwellings) where productivity is high.Several authors have considered the likely impacts o ClimateChange on cetaceans1, including MacGarvin and Simmonds(1996) and Burns (2002), and the International Whaling Com-mission has held a special workshop on this theme, concluding

that concerns about the ability o at least some cetacean popu-lations to adapt to uture conditions are justied (IWC, 1996).

Wrsig et al. (2002) also reviewed this issue, emphasising thevulnerability o species that are dependent on limited patches oparticular types o habitat, such as certain land-breeding pinni-peds, the coastal and reshwater cetaceans, and the sirenians2.

Sousa chinensis, Nicola Hodgins

climate change and marine apex predat4


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Wrsig et al. (2002) also suggested that Climate Change eects

can be divided into three types: primary eects those experienced by the individual; secondary eects those that aect a population or species;

and tertiary eects those created as a response to Climate

Change by our own species (or example, Climate Change-driven sheries ailures may cause human shers to move

their attentions to marine mammals).

They also noted the potential or a shit in the Gul Stream in theNorth Atlantic and the possibility that the Northwest Passageacross North America will become more easily navigable. This,in turn, could increase boat trac in this region, increasing therisks o oil spills and other pollution, worsening acoustic pollu-

tion and, generally, degrading what is regarded as a still rela-tively pristine area.

obv evi. Changes in Water BodiesBurns (2002) emphasised the importance o Antarctica, where90 percent o the worlds great whales eed, and that temper-atures in some areas have already risen by 4-5oC in only 50 years.He also noted the importance o the zooplankton species krill(Euphausiacea) and its relationship to the extent o sea-ice and

the algae associated with it which are a critical ood resource orkrill3. In areas where the sea-ice has receded, salps (tunicateso the species Salpa thompsoni) tend to dominate and may out-compete the krill. Salps are more tolerant o warmer and lowernutrient water than krill and there is evidence that their rangeis expanding with proound implications or the Southern Oceanood web, including penguins, albatrosses, seals and whales,which despite their wide oraging ranges, are all susceptible tokrill shortages (Atkinson et al., 2004).Areas o open water in the polar ice-pack, known as polynyas orleads, are important or some species o marine mammals4 and

their extent may be aected by Climate Change (Burns, 2002). Inthe Arctic, no one species o plankton dominates but a diminutiono the phytoplankton populations, with knock-on eects through-out the Arctic ood chains, is predicted. Burns (2002) suggests

that several key prey species or cetaceans may be aected butadds some cetacean species in the region, such as n whales(Balaeonoptera physalus) and bowhead whales (Balaena mysti-cetus) have demonstrated adaptability in eeding behaviour andmay be able to switch to other species. With this statement,he introduces an important theme or urther consideration, theissue o the adaptability o marine apex predators.Burns (2002) also noted that global warming may oster poison-ous algal blooms and contribute to epizootics and it appears that

there has been a signicant increase in mass die-os in marinemammal populations in the last ew years (Simmonds and Mayer,1997; Robinson et al., 2005). Whilst, in many cases, viruses (not-ably o the typically highly pathogenic morbillivirus amily) havebeen identied as the proximate cause, environmental actorsmay have exacerbated or even predicated these epizootics(Simmonds and Mayer, 1997). For example, in the case o thedie-o o striped dolphins (Stenella coeruleoalba), which spreadacross the entire Mediterranean in the 1990s resulting in the losso thousands o animals, the poor nutritional state o the dolphinsresulting rom low nutrient input to the eastern Mediterranean caused originally by abnormally low rainall may have been aprecipitating eature (Simmonds and Mayer, 1997).In addition to Climate Change, another by-product o increas-ing atmospheric CO

2concentrations is the acidication o sea-

water. It has been suggested that squid which are key preyspecies or many deep-diving marine mammal species may beespecially vulnerable to this change. The high energy swimming

ors: some Warning signals

Common Dolphin (Delphinus delphis),

Cornwall BND Colin Wood


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method o squid and their high metabolism requires a good sup-

ply o oxygen rom the blood and increasing CO2 concentrationlowers blood pH and its capacity to carry oxygen (TRS, 2005).

ii. Distributions ShitsThe importance o temperature in species distribution in theoceans has recently been investigated by Worms et al. (2005)who ound what appears to be a general rule: that diversity ispositively correlated with thermal ronts, dissolved oxygen anda non-linear unction o temperature (with an optimum o about

23 C).Predator demographics can o course be expected to be aectedby prey, so changes in prey distribution or abundance may pre-cede shits or negative outcomes in predator populations. Wrsiget al. (2002) stressed the importance o the El Nio events as aproxy or Climate Change (although a change in the incidence o

these events could also be a eature o Climate Change itsel).They noted that recent events have prompted reproductive ail-ure (especially in the orm o high juvenile mortality) in colonies

o seabirds and seals. For example, in the major El Nio year o1982, all emale Galapagos ur seals (Arctocephalus galapagoen-sis) lost their pups. Several distributional shits also occurredin other marine species at this time. For example, near-bottomspawning market squid (Loligo opalescens) let the southern Cali-ornia area, ollowed by the short-nned pilot whales (Globice-phala macrorhynchus) that normally prey on them. Whether thisloss o prey and apparently climate-induced shit caused deathsor health-impairment is not known. A ew years later, an infux o

Rissos dolphins (Grampus griseus) into the same region occur-red and they ed on the by now returned market squid. Wrsig etal. (2002) suggest that the dolphins may be taking advantage o

the niche let by the pilot whales. During the same event therewas also an expansion o bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops trunca-tus) rom southern to central Caliornia and they remained thereater the El Nio event ended (Wrsig et al., 2002).On a large scale, it is predicted that species will shit towards thepoles and, ultimately, this is likely to result in a reduced global

range or those that are most cold water adapted. Perry et al.(2005) examined long-term, climate-related changes in demersalsh in the North Sea. They ound that both exploited and non-

exploited sh responded markedly to recent increases in sea

temperature, with nearly two thirds o species shiting their meanlatitude or depth (or both) over a 25 year period. There is someevidence that predators are ollowing suit. MacLeod et al. (2005)considered cetacean strandings and sighting requency andrelative abundance in north-west Scotland. The data suggesteda range expansion o common dolphins (Delphinus delphis a warmer water species) and a decrease in range o White-Beaked Dolphins (Lagenorhynchus albirostris). Their data maybe the rst direct evidence that this [pole-ward shit] is indeed

happening in a cetacean species. Changes in sperm whale(Physeter macrocephalus) distribution in the North East Atlan-tic, based on strandings data, has recently been related to shitsin the North Atlantic Oscillacion (NAO) which probably aects

their squid prey species (Robinson et al., 2005).Population level responses apart rom distribution shits are alsopossible and Lusseau et al. (2004) using two unusually long-termand detailed data sets, ound that the group size o bottlenosedolphins in the Moray Firth, Scotland, and orcas (Orcinus orca)

in Johnstone Strait, Canada, varied rom year to year in relation to large scale ocean climate variation. Local indices o preyabundance also varied with climate and the cetaceans tended

to live in smaller groups when there were less salmon around,which seemed to occur two years ater a lower phase o theNorth Atlantic and Pacic Decadal Oscilliations (NAO and PDO).This changing o group size is another illustration o the adapt-ability o these predators.

iii. Sea Ice ChangesThe breeding assemblages o Antarctic ur seals (Arctocephalusgazella) at South Georgia provide an unusual opportunity to monitoran apex marine predator species, especially as good quality dataexists rom several decades (i.e. rom summer 1984/5 onwards).Forcada et al. (2005) studied this situation and their analysis indi-cated that positive sea surace temperature (SST) anomalies atSouth Georgia, preceded by, and cross-correlated with, requentEl Nio-La Nia events between 1987 and 1988, explained extreme

reductions in Antarctic ur seal pup production or the 20 years othe study. The authors believe that these anomalies were likely tobe associated with low availability o prey, mainly krill.


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Another relatively highly visible marine predator is the polarbear (Ursus maritimus), which lives throughout the ice-covered

waters o the Arctic and particularly on near-shore annual icecover above the continental shel where productivity is at itshighest (Derocher et al., 2004)5. Climate change models predictchanges to the sea ice with reduced seal prey availability or

the bears. Derocher et al. (2004) have suggested that at rst thebears might be avoured by more annual ice with more leads init making more suitable seal habitat available, but as the ice

thins urther they will have to travel more using up energy tokeep in contact with avoured habitat. Derocher et al. (2004) em-phasise the behavioural plasticity o all ursids but also note thatgiven the rapid pace o ecological change in the Arctic, the longgeneration time, and the highly specialised nature o polar bears,

it is unlikely that polar bears will survive as a species i the icedisappears completely as has been predicted by some. WWF

(2002) describe the polar bear as an ideal species through which to monitor human-caused impacts in the ecosystem includingClimate Change. They note that in the Hudson and James Bayso Canada, sea ice is now melting early in the spring and orminglater in the autumn and, thereore, the time that the bears haveon the ice, storing up energy or the summer and autumn when

there is little available ood, is becoming shorter. In Hudson Bay,the main cause o death or cubs is either an absence o ood orlack o at on nursing mothers.

It should be stressed that Climate Change can and probablyalready does cause dierent eects in dierent regions. InBan Bay and the Davis Strait, strong increasing trends in win-

Humpback Whales (Megaptera novangeliae), Duncan Morrel


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ter sea-ice concentrations have been reported between 1979

and 1996; Ban Bay also happens to host the largest concen-trations o wintering narwhals (Monodon monocerus) and theseanimals are entirely dependent on leads and cracks in the ice so

that they can breathe. Many major mortality events have beenrecorded when the narwhals have become trapped in the ice.Given their high site-delity and the decrease in open waterareas or them, these polar specialists seem very vulnerable toClimate Change (Laidre and Heide-Jorgensen, 2005).

iv. Impact on Breeding Success

We have already mentioned the Climate Change-driven eectsseen in Arctic pinnipeds and, despite the diculties involvedin identiying such matters with animals that breed in the sea,

there are some signals rom cetaceans that breeding is, or willbe, aected. Sperm whale populations were heavily impactedby commercial whaling and recovery or these slow breedinganimals is taking a very long time. It has been noted that ClimateChange may urther impair this and the poor reproductive suc-cess o this species in waters near the Galpagos Islands has

been associated with periods o warm sea surace temperature,usually caused by El Nio events (Whitehead, 1997).For one critically endangered whale population at least, a recentanalysis indicates that Climate Change may be the agent thatprevents its recovery and pushes it to its nal extinction. Follow-ing the ending o commercial whaling, the North Atlantic RightWhale (Eubalaena glacialis) was expected to slowly recover.However, population growth slowed in the 1990s with collisionswith shipping and entanglement in nets identied as the chie

culprits(Greene and Pershing, 2004). Greene and Pershing (2004)note that the planktonic copepod (Calanus fnmarchicus) is theprincipal source o nutrition or right whales and its relatively highabundance in the 1980s explains the stable calving rate at this

time. A decline in Calanusin the early 1990s has been associatedwith a drop in calving and the most troubling observations haveoccurred since 1995. Indeed, in 1996, the NAO Index exhibited itslargest single year drop o the 20th century and this had eectson the North Atlantics physical and biological oceanography.

Eects in the Gul o Maine/Scotian Shel region were not seenuntil 1997/8, including a dramatic decline in calving rates.In the North Atlantic, the NAO Index has been mainly positiveover the last 25 years; this should provide avourable conditions

or right whale eeding and, thereore, breeding. However, one o

the IPCC conclusions is that there will be an increase in climatevariability, and Greene and Pershing (2004) question whether thesituation in 1996 was unusual or a sign o the uture likely swingsin climate. The worst scenario would be a prolonged period onegative NAO conditions. I right whale calving rates were de-pressed or a signicant period o time, then the time to extinc-

tion would even become shorter than the 200 years previouslypredicted. Climate change and variability need, thereore, tonow be taken into account in the management o the recovery o

this population (Greene and Pershing, 2004).

cPerhaps the most obvious conclusion is that monitoring marinesystems and linking observed changes to eects is ar romeasy. However, despite this, concerns or marine species areincreasingly underpinned by observed eects. The ways inwhich Climate Change may aect marine predators are summa-

rised in gure 1. This review also highlights the likely negativeconsequences and particular vulnerability o species that aredependent on the extent o sea ice. Similarly highlighted is thevulnerability o small and isolated populations, such as that o

the northern right whale, where Climate Change is set to becomea determining actor in its survival.More generally, or all species, the key question concerns howquickly they can adapt to changes in their habitats and prey.It can be expected that at least some o the wider ranging pre-

dators such as oceanic dolphins are likely to be able to adapt to some extent to movements in their resource base. Indeed,even Bowhead Whales (Balaena mysticetus) (which are specta-cularly long-lived and slow breeding ice-edge specialists) havebeen able to change their patterns o habitat use several timesin the last 11,000, or so, years, apparently in response to changesin ice conditions, currents or marine productivity (Wrsig et al.,2002). However, the current rates o change may be too great ormany species to keep up with them.

Monitoring or changes in marine species and systems, includ-ing identiying vulnerabilities will be dicult and expensive butis also important and necessary or our understanding o globalprocesses, including within ecosystems where we directly ex-


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ploit resources. The international ora that deal with species

conservation have a major role in providing co-ordination anddirection. The IWC, or example, has recognised over the last

ten years the need to address environmental change issues, in-cluding the possible impacts o Climate Change. However, thecontribution o the IWC has been criticised or lack o adequateunding (Burns, 2002)6 and it is unclear i there will still be will in

the Commission to look at these important matters in the uture.Fortunately, the Convention or Migratory Species has also re-cognised the importance o this issue (or example via an inter-

national workshop at its 2005 Conerence o Parties where thispaper was presented) and it will hopeully embrace a major rolein related research and monitoring in particular o the specieson its appendices in the uture.

Finally, in closing, we would like to echo the words o Wrsig

et al. (2002) who urther to their review o concerns or marinemammals, concluded that or such a pervasive problem asglobal Climate Change, we need strong political leadership thatcares about the environment. Such leadership can emerge romany part o the globe, but a special responsibility alls on those ous in over-developed countries who can most aord to curb ourhuge, disproportionate per capita consumption o energy andoutput o toxins and other environmental degraders. We agree;energy policies urgently need to change worldwide.

In addition, in the ace o the overwhelming changes that mayresult and indeed already seem to be resulting rom globalwarming, conservation strategies should be expanded to en-compass predicted changes resulting rom climatic impacts;

Figure 1: Ways in which Climate Change may aect marine predators

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ailure to do so may mean that many strategies rapidly become

redundant as they are overwhelmed by the consequences oa rapidly changing climate. This is the time or a undamentalrevision in our thinking about conservation and resource mana-gement; and this new approach needs to be both adequatelyprecautionary and signicantly ar-seeing.

awClimate Change and Migratory Species (Robinson et al., 2005)

provided a very helpul yardstick to measure this short reviewagainst and in particular allowed us to conrm that we had iden-tied the relevant key studies.

Reerences

Atkinson, A., Siegel, V., Pakhomov, E. And Rothery, P. 2004.Long-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within theSouthern Ocean. Nature 432: 100-103.

Burns, W.C.G. 2002. Climate Change and the International Whal-ing Commission in the 21st Century. In: Burns, W.G.C and Gillespie,A. [eds]. The Future o Cetaceans in a Changing World. Transna-

tional Publishers, New York.

Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J. and Stirling, I. 2004. Polar bears in awarming climate. Integr. Comp. Biol., 44: 163-176.

Greene, C.H. and Pershing, A.J. 2004. Climate and the conservation biology o North Atlantic right whales: right whale, wrong

time? Front Ecol Environ 2004; 2(1): 6 pages:www.rontiersinecology.org

Forcada, J., Trathan, P.N., Reid, K. and Murphy, E.J. 2005. The e-ects o global climate variability in pup production o AntarcticFur Seals. Ecology 86(9): 2408-2417.

IWC, 1996. International Whaling Commission, Report o the IWCWorkshop on Climate Change and Cetaceans.

Laidre, K.L. and Heide-Jrgensen, M.P. 2005. Arctic sea ice trendsand narwhal vulnerability. Biological Conservation 121: 509-517.

Lusseau, D., Williams, R., Wilson, B., Grellier, K., Barton, T.R.,Hammond, P.S. and Thompson, P.M. 2004. Parallel infuences oclimate on the behaviour o Pacic killer whales and Atlanticbottlenose dolphins. Ecology Letters 7: 1068-1076.

MacGarvin, M. and Simmonds, M.P. 1996. Whales and ClimateChange. In: Simmonds M.P. and Hutchinson, J.D. [Eds] The Con-servation o Whales and Dolphins Science and Practice. JohnWiley and Sons, Chichester.

Macleod, C.D., Bannon, S.M., Pierce, G.J., Schweder, C.,Learmouth, J.A., Herman, J.S. and Reid, R.J. 2005. Climate changeand the cetacean community o north-west Scotland. BiologicalConservation (in press).

Perry, A.L., Low, P.J., Ellis, J.R. and Reynolds, J.D. 2005. Science308: 1912-1915.

Robinson, R.A., Learmouth, J.A., Hutson, A.M., Macleod, C.D.,Sparks, T.H., Leech, D.I., Pierce, G.J., Rehsch, M.M. and Crick,H.Q.P. 2005. Climate change and migratory species. BTO Re-search Report 414 (Available at www.dera.gov.uk type migra-

tory species into the search engine).

Bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), Charlie Phillips


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Simmonds, M.P. and Mayer, S.J. 1997. An evaluation o environ-

mental and other actors in some recent marine mammal morta-lities in Europe: implications or conservation and management.Environ. Rev. 5: 89-98.

TRS 2005. Ocean acidication due to increasing atmosphericcarbon dioxide. The Royal Society 68 pages.www.royalsoc.ac.uk

Worms, B., Sandow, M., Oschlies, A., Lotze, H.K. and Myers, R.A.2005. Global patterns o predator diversity in the open oceans.

Science. Reports in press.Whitehead, H. 1997. Sea surace temperature and the abun-dance o sperm whale calves o the Galapagos Islands: impli-cations or the eects o global warming. International WhalingCommission Report, 47: 941-944.

Wrsig, B., Reeves, R.R. and Ortega-Ortiz, J.G. 2002. Global cli-mate change and marine mammals. In: Evans, P.G.H. and Raga,J.A. [Eds] Marine mammals biology and conservation. Kluwer

Academic/Plenum Publishers, New York etc.WWF 2002. Polar bears at risk, a WWF Status Report, May 2002.6 pages.

Footnotes

1 The mammalian Order Cetacea includes all the whales, dol-phins and porpoises.2 Animals in the marine mammalian order Sirenia more com-

monly called sea cows.3 Sea ice may also shelter krill rom predators.4 Polynyas are important spring eeding and breeding grounds

or some marine mammals in the Arctic and overwintering sitesor white whales and possibly bowheads (Burns, 2002).

5

Polar bears can be considered a marine mammal; the sea iceis where they spend most o their lives. In summer, the sea icemelts in all, or part, o their range and only then are the bearsorced to spend several months on land. Otherwise they areusually only on land when moving between sea-ice eedingareas or when searching or a mate or having cubs.

6 Burns (2002) concluded that i the IWC ailed to develop its en-vironmental work then its ultimate legacy may be that it savedwhales rom extinction by commercial harvesting but ailed

them in their time o greatest need.

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impacts oF climate change on marine5Colin James Limpus

Queensland Environmental Protection Agency, Brisbane, Australia.

Consider the Australasian region at the end o the last Ice

Age when Australia and New Guinea ormed one large land

mass. With a warming earth accompanied by melting ice

caps and glaciers, the sea level rose and the Indian Ocean

fooded into the Gul o Carpentaria about 8,000 years BP, the

Pacic Ocean breached the Torres Strait land bridge about

7,000 years BP and the coral islands o the Great Barrier

Ree ormed about 5,000 years BP. Turtle nesting beacheso 10,000 years BP are now totally submerged and most o

the present day major marine turtle rookeries are located at

sites that were inaccessible across dry land less than 150

turtle generations ago. The present major migratory route

or adult green turtles eeding in eastern Indonesia, Arnhem

Land and the Gul o Carpentaria through Torres Strait to the

Great Barrier Ree nesting beaches is a geologically recent

phenomenon.

Marine turtles have been among the great survivors o drama-

tic Climate Changes and fuctuating sea levels spanning tens

o millions o years since the age o the dinosaurs. Modern

marine turtle populations developed new migratory routes

and redistributed their breeding sites in response to chang-

ing climate and elevated sea levels since the last ice ages.

In general terms, responding to Climate Change should not

be a threat to marine turtle survival. Our concerns regarding

their response to present day Climate Change should centreon their capacity to respond satisactorily to an elevated rate

o Climate Change while simultaneously being impacted by

a wide range o signicant threatening processes rom hu-

man origins.

i t nB

Marine turtles o both amilies, Dermochelyidae and Chelonii-dae, lay eggs that require nest temperatures in the 25-32oC orsuccessul incubation. Both amilies are characterised by tem-perature dependent sex determination. Cool beaches produce

predominantly male hatchlings; warm beaches produce mostlyemale hatchlings.With increasing temperatures there is likely to be a eminisingo marine turtle populations. Over the last 50 years or so, somecritical nesting beaches like those in eastern mainland peninsulaMalaysia have already shited into a totally emale producing

temperature range presumably as a result o man-made changesto the nesting habitat and the more subtle global increases in temperature. While turtle populations appear to unction suc-cessully with an excess o emales (male:emale = 1:2 to 1:3),

there probably should be concerns i the regional sex ratio orthe species (stock) approaches 1:4 male to emale.Even without the current trend to warmer summers, sand temper-atures at nest depth during mid summer in the tropics at somebeaches approach or exceed the upper lethal limit or egg in-

cubation (340

C). At such tropical beaches in northern Australia,marine turtles nest in winter while the same species (but dier-ent genetic stocks) in eastern and western Australia nests in themid summer but on cooler beaches.

Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas) digging nest,

Nicholas Pilcher


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turtles: a case study

In contrast, within the southern Great Barrier Ree, in the rst

decades ater our marine turtle studies commenced in 1968, wenever recorded sand temperatures at nest depth reaching the34oC lethal temperature at any nesting beach. Since the extra-ordinarily hot summer o December 1997 January 1998, sand

temperatures at nest depth at Mon Repos are now reaching ashigh as 36oC or weeks at a time during hatching season. In re-sponse to these excessively high nest temperatures, there hasbeen increased debilitation and even death o eggs and hatch-lings. It can be predicted that with urther increases in summer

temperatures, signicant decreases in hatching success andhatchling emergence rom nests can be expected on beachesthat until recently were good turtle egg incubators.A commonly held hypothesis is that marine turtles return to breedat the beach at which they were born such a behaviour impliesa static breeding association with specic locations. However,

the loggerhead turtles, Caretta caretta, tagged as hatchlingsat Mon Repos beach decades ago are now returning to breedat about 30 years o age but not just at Mon Repos. They are

returning to breed at many beaches in the region. When theseresults are linked to the observations o past changes in nestingdistribution in response to the end o the ice ages, we need toconsider an alternate hypothesis regarding delity to ancestralbreeding sites: Marine turtle populations may return to the samebreeding area while environmental conditions remain stable but

they may shit to new breeding sites in response to changingenvironmental cues such as sea temperature, beach stabilityand proximity to suitable ocean current or dispersing hatchlings

to pelagic oraging areas. There is a range o temperature vari-ables that will exert selective pressure on marine turtle nestingbiology: white sand beaches are cooler than dark sand beaches;

temperate beaches are cooler than tropical beaches; beachesare cooler in winter than in summer.

I present the hypothesis that marine turtles will respond to Cli-mate Change as they have done in the past through changes in

the distribution o nesting and changes in the associated migra-tory routes or through shits their nesting to cooler months. I sug-

gest that these changes will not occur primarily through changesin behaviour o the existing adult population but rather throughchanges occurring as new adults recruit to join the breeding pop-ulation over uture generations. Because o the long generation

time o marine turtles, this response to Climate Change will beslow and occur over decades or more likely hundreds o years.

s lv r i n BAt nesting beaches with elevated sand dunes, turtles are ex-

pected to be little aected by sea level rise. Their nesting shouldoccur above the new tide levels. The situation will be very di-erent with low elevation sand islands such as occurs widely in

the Pacic Island nations, the Caribbean, the Maldives and theGreat Barrier Ree. At these low elevation sand beaches, thecombined impact o erosion and fooding o the nesting habitatis expected to cause increases in egg mortality and eventuallyloss o some nesting beaches. It is uncertain whether ree build-ing processes will keep pace with sea level rise to renourish the

beaches naturally. Turtles that lose their nesting beaches, areexpected to seek out new nesting sites. How turtles rom veryremote/isolated sites will cope will loss o nesting habitat is con-jecture.

Green turtle (Chelonia mydas) suracing to breath,

Alejandro Fallabrino


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m r cc n BKnowledge gap: We do not understand how a turtle selects hernesting beach as she commences her breeding lie. Researchneeds: Investigation o cues used by turtles during nesting beach

selection. Investigation o the potential or turtles to change their breed-

ing behaviour through shits in timing o the breeding season,

through shits to use cooler beaches or through selection onew breeding sites ollowing the loss o a rookery.

Knowledge gap: Incubation success, hatchling emergencesuccess and temperature proles o the nesting habitats are notdocumented at most rookeries. Research needs: Establish temperature proles throughout the range o nest-

ing beaches or the species (stock)

Documents

ESPECIES MIGRATORIAS Y CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO