Evaluation of the E ectiveness of OPS BERSEPADU HARI RAYA 2011 03 (2012... · OPS BERSEPADU HARI RAYA 2011 Editors Jamilah Mohd Marjan, PhD Norlen Mohamed, MD Mohd Rasid Osman, P

Malaysian Institute of Road Safety ResearchLot 125-135, Jalan TKS 1, Taman Kajang Sentral43000 Kajang, Selangor Darul EhsanTel +603 8924 9200 Fax + 603 8733 2005Website www.miros.gov.my Email [email protected]

MRR 03/2012

Designed by: Publications Unit, MIROS

Research Report

Evaluation of the E�ectiveness of OPS BERSEPADU HARI RAYA 2011

Editors

Jamilah Mohd Marjan, PhDNorlen Mohamed, MDMohd Rasid Osman, P EngFuad Abas, P EngMohd Faudzi Mohd Yusof, PhDWong Shaw Voon, PhD

Conducted over the Hari Raya Period from 23 August 2011 to 6 September 2011

Research Report

Evaluation of E�ectiveness ofOPS BERSEPADU HARI RAYA 2011

Conducted over the Hari Raya Period from 23 August 2011 to 6 September 2011

(FA) MRR 03 (2012) Evaluation of the Effectiveness of OPS Bersepadu Hari Raya 2011.indd 1 9/26/12 4:59 PM

Research Report

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of

OPS BERSEPADU HARI RAYA 2011 Conducted over the Hari Raya Period from 23 August 2011 to6 September 2011

Editors

Jamilah Mohd Marjan, PhDNorlen Mohamed, MDMohd Rasid Osman, P EngFuad Abas, P EngMohd Faudzi Mohd Yusof, PhDWong Shaw Voon, PhD


MIROS © 2012 All Rights Reserved

Published by:

Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research (MIROS)Lot 125-135, Jalan TKS 1, Taman Kajang Sentral,43000 Kajang, Selangor Darul Ehsan.

Perpustakaan Negara Malaysia Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Ops Bersepadu Hari Raya 2011conducted over the Hari Raya period from 23 August 2011 to 6 September 2011 editor Jamilah Mohd Marjan... [et al]ISBN 978-967-5967-12-21. Traffic accidents--Research--Malaysia.2. Traffic accidents--Research--Malaysia. II. Title.624.151

For citation purposes

Jamilah MM, Norlen M, Mohd Rasid O, Fuad A, Mohd Faudzi MY, SV Wong (Eds.) (2012), Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Ops Bersepadu Hari Raya 2011: Conducted over the Hari Raya Period from 23 August 2011 to 6 September 2011, MRR 03/2012, Kuala Lumpur: Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research.

Printed by: Publications Unit, MIROS

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DISCLAIMERNone of the materials provided in this report may be used, reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including recording or the use of any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from MIROS. Any conclusion and opinions in this report may be subject to reevaluation in the event of any forthcoming additional information or investigation.


Evaluation of the Effectiveness of OPS BERSEPADU HARI RAYA 2011Conducted over the Hari Raya Period from 23 August 2011 to 6 September 2011

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Project Leaders and Contributors

Project: General Accident Analysis During Ops Raya and Ops CNYProject Leader:Sharifah Allyana Syed Md RahimProject Contributors:Rohayu SaraniHizal Hanis Hashim

Project: Traffic VolumeProject Leader:Nor Aznirahani Mhd YuninProject Contributors:Ramizam Noor ZamanNusayba Megat Johari

Project: Motorcycle Risk AnalysisProject Leader:Ho Jen Sim Project Contributors:Akmalia Binti Shabadin

Project: In-depth Crash Investigation Study During Ops 24Project Leader:Siti Atiqah Mohd FaudziAbdul Rahmat Abdul ManapProject Contributors:Mohd Huzaifah MuntalipAhmad Noor Syukri Zainal AbidinFauziana Lamin Mohamad Mahafiz Abd RahimHazrul Affandy HamalitdinMohd Syafeeq RamliMaryatini Md SaadTan Kean LeeMuhammad Fhirdaus Shahrudin



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Sharifah Allyana Syed Md RahimAhmad Sharil Mohd YusofMohd Hanif Md Ilias

Project: Road Users Information (Media)Project Leader:Maslina binti Musa Project Contributors:Nor Aini Mohd Rosdi Norliana Ali Haidzir Yusof Ghani Muhammad Amien Md Hawari Eddy Azuan Senin

Project: Speed Change StudyProject Leader:Syed Tajul Malik Syed Tajul ArifProject Contributors:Ramizam Noor ZamanAlvin Poi Wai HoongHo Jen SimNorfaizah Mohamad KhaidirRohayu SaraniAzzuhana Roslan

Project: Perception of Being Caught Study Among Road UsersProject Leader:Noradrenalina Isah Project Contributors:Nor Fadilah Mohd SoidSanizah Saleh

Project: Perception of Being Caught Study Among Bus DriverProject Leader:Nor Fadilah Mohd Soid Project Contributors:Noradrenalina Isah Mohd Rasid Osman, P EngSanizah Saleh



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Project: Compliancy of Helmet WearingProject Leader:Mohd Khairul Alhapiz IbrahimProject Contributors:Zarir Hafiz ZulkipliAzzuhana RoslanMohd Hafzi Md IsaNorfaizah Mohamad Khaidir Abdul Rahmat Abdul Manap

Project: Seatbelt Wearing Among Vehicle OccupantsProject Leader:Wahida Ameer Batcha Project Contributors:Mohamad Suffian AhmadNorlen Mohamed, MD

Project: Safety Level of Express Bus from Passenger’s PerspectiveProject Leader:Rabihah IlyasProject Contributors:Mohd Rasid Osman, P EngNuura Addina MohamadAkmalia ShabadinMohamad Suffian Ahmad Hawa Mohamed Jamil Fuad Abas, P Eng Mohd Huzaifah Muntalip

Project: Illegal OvertakingProject Leader:Sharifah Allyana Syed Md RahimProject Contributors:HizaL Hanis HashimNur Fazzillah Mohd NordinNurul Huda JamaludinNor Aznirahani Mhd YuninNusayba Megat Johari



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List of Tables xList of Figures xiAcknowledgements xiiiExecutive Summary xv

1.0 Introduction 1

2.0 Analysis of Current Situation – Accident, Traffic Volume, Risks and Crash Investigation 2 2.1 Accident data analysis based on Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) data 2 2.1.1 Introduction 2 2.1.2 Hypothesis 3 2.1.3 Findings 3 2.1.4 Summary 8 2.2 Traffic Volume Analysis 9 2.2.1 Introduction 9 2.2.2 Hypothesis 9 2.2.3 Findings 10 2.2.4 Summary 14 2.3 Motorcycle Risk Analysis 15 2.3.1 Introduction 15 2.3.2 Hypothesis 15 2.3.3 Findings 16 2.3.4 Summary 18 2.4 In-depth Road Crashes Investigation 19 2.4.1 Introduction 19 2.4.2 Findings 20 2.4.3 Summary 24

3.0 Advocacy 25 3.1 Road User Information (Media) 25 3.1.1 Introduction 25 3.1.2 Hypothesis 26 3.1.3 Findings 26 3.1.4 Summary 27

Table of Contents



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4.0 Specific Studies Related to the Ops 28 4.1 Speed Change Study 28 4.1.1 Introduction 28 4.1.2 Hypothesis 29 4.1.3 Findings 29 4.1.4 Summary 31 4.2 Study on the Perception of Being Caught Among Road Users 32 4.2.1 Introduction 32 4.2.2 Hypothesis 33 4.2.3 Findings 33 4.2.4 Summary 37 4.3 Perception of Being Caught Among Bus Drivers 38 4.3.1 Introduction 38 4.3.2 Hypothesis 39 4.3.3 Findings 39 4.3.4 Summary 41 4.4 Compliancy with Helmet Use 42 4.4.1 Introduction 42 4.4.2 Hypothesis 43 4.4.3 Findings 43 4.4.4 Summary 44 4.5 Seatbelt Use Among Vehicle Occupants 44 4.5.1 Introduction 44 4.5.2 Hypothesis 46 4.5.3 Findings 47 4.5.4 Summary 51 4.6 Safety Level of Express Bus from Passengers’ Perspective 51 4.6.1 Introduction 51 4.6.2 Hypothesis 52 4.6.3 Findings 52 4.6.4 Summary 56 4.7 Overtaking 56 4.7.1 Introduction 56 4.7.2 Hypothesis 57 4.7.3 Findings 57 4.7.4 Summary 58

5.0 Conclusion 58

References 63



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Appendices 66 Appendix A 66 Appendix B 70 Appendix C 73 Appendix D 74 Appendix E 75 Appendix F 76 Appendix G 79



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List of Tables

Table 1 Crash data on LEKAS, PLUS and KL-Karak Expressways 12Table 2 Traffic volumes at each expressway 14Table 3 Relative risk for motorcyclist fatalities year 2011 (Ops Raya vs normal days) 17Table 4 Relative risk for motorcyclist fatalities year 2011 (with reference to year 2009) 17Table 5 Relative risk for motorcyclist fatalities year 2011 (Ops CNY vs Ops Raya) 17Table 6 Ratio of change in MC fatalities with reference to year 2009 18Table 7 Crash characteristic of fatal related motorcycle crash 23Table 8 Comparison of mean speed during and after Ops 29Table 9 Comparison of mean speed at locations without and with PMS 30Table 10 Analysis in road users’ perception of being caught for 2008 until 2011 festival periods 34Table 11 Comparison of road users’ perception of being caught between Ops for each Hari Raya (Year 2008–2010) 35Table 12 Comparison of road users’ perception of being caught between Ops for 2011 Hari Raya 36Table 13 Analysis in bus drivers’ overall perception of being caught for two main periods 40Table 14 Comparison of bus drivers’ perception of being caught for two main periods 40Table 15 Effectiveness of traffic enforcement methods conducted by respective agencies 41Table 16 Comparison of mean scores POBC between the respective enforcement methods 41Table 17 Likelihood of vehicle occupant seatbelt use during and after as compared to before the Ops 48Table 18 Passenger’s perception on express bus performance 54Table 19 Passenger’s perception on driver’s behaviour 55Table 20 Study locations for illegal overtaking 57Table 21 Total volume and illegal overtaking during and after Ops Raya 2011 58

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List of Figures

Figure 1 Daily data for accidents, fatal accidents and fatalities during Ops Raya 2011 4Figure 2 Daily fatalities during Ops Raya 2011 by road user type 5Figure 3 Fatalities, motorcycle fatalities and total accident during Ops Raya 2009, 2010, 2011 7Figure 4 Traffic volume profile along the KL-Karak Expressway 11Figure 5 Comparison of heavy vehicle volume at PLUS, LPT, KL-Karak and LEKAS Expressways 11Figure 6 Traffic volume and accident along KL-Karak Expressway 13Figure 7 Motorcyclist fatalities from 2009 to 2011 16Figure 8 Frequency of media exposure 26Figure 9 Media exposure and awareness level 27Figure 10 Speed behaviour during and after the Ops 31Figure 11 Percentage of visibility of traffic enforcement at all locations 37Figure 12 Nationwide seatbelt use rate (Overall) December 2008–June 2010 45Figure 13 Overall seatbelt use rate among vehicle occupants by the period of the Ops at the sites with enforcement activities 47

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Acknowledgements

Ops Bersepadu Hari Raya 2011 involved the concurrence, cooperation and input of several government agencies, non-governmental agencies and the private sector. The government agencies involved were the Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM), IPD Seremban, IPK Kedah, IPK Perak, Road Transport Department (JPJ), Negeri Sembilan JPJ, Kedah State JPJ, Perak State JPJ, Road Safety Department (JKJR), Public Works Department (JKR), Malaysian Highway Authority Board (LLM), PLUS Expressways, MTD Prime Sdn Bhd, Kajang-Seremban Expressway (LEKAS), South Intergrated Terminal (TBS), Klang Sentral Management Terminal, Pengurusan Hentian Putra, Pengurusan Hentian Duta, Perbadanan Pengurusan Terminal 1 Seremban S.E Ekspres Sdn Bhd, Sani Ekspres Sdn Bhd, Konsortium Transnasional Berhad, Jusco Ipoh, Tesco Ipoh, Tesco Seremban, and Tesco Mergong.

The editors would like to express their gratitude to all these agencies and individuals for their invaluable time and the important role they played in shaping this comprehensive report. We are confident that this study will offer several compelling reasons for the continuation of the intervention strategies to enhance road safety in our nation.



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Executive Summary

Annually, there are several festivals celebrated by the multi-racial community in Malaysia, of which the two major festivals are the Eid Festival (Raya) celebrated by all the Muslims and secondly Chinese New Year (CNY), festival celebrated by Malaysians Chinese descent. Among the traditions practiced during these festival periods is the mass exodus of city residents to their hometowns in several states either in the South, East or West of the Peninsular.

It is during these festive seasons that the ‘Ops Bersepadu’ or integrated enforcement activities by several agencies such as the Road Transport Department (JPJ) and the Royal Malaysian Police (PDRM) are implemented. The different strategies and approach to enforcement are determined by the relevant agencies respectively. These include strategies such as the setting up of roadblocks, mobile and stationary patrols, presence of enforcement at monitoring posts, issuance or non-issuance of summonses and undercover enforcement.

In the process of determining the effectiveness of the Ops during the festive seasons, a comparison of the accident analysis data of the current Ops to those of the previous Ops since 2009 was carried out. The trend and its effectiveness were evaluated using statistical methods. Comparisons were also made between Ops Raya and Ops Chinese New Year (CNY). Relative risks on the biggest vulnerable road user group; the motorcyclists were also evaluated. The comparison in fatality data during the festive seasons were compared to that of normal day and computed.

The traffic volume generated on the expressways by the exodus before, during and after the Ops period was also monitored. Accidents were evaluated to investigate if there is any relationship with the increase in traffic volume. Despite the fact that 47% of



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total accidents and 73% of fatalities occurred on federal and state roads, evaluation of traffic volume and accidents was not carried out on federal and state roads due to the unavailability of traffic data.

To understand the accident situation further, crash investigations were carried out on high profile accidents as well as accidents involving motorcycles that occurred during the Ops period. This is in the hope of determining the causal factors of accidents, fatalities and injuries.

The dissemination of media information through electronic and printed media in the form of road safety advertisements, special features and news during and after the Ops were also monitored via media portal. This was the only known advocacy strategy during Ops Raya 2011. No other advocacy programmes besides the dissemination of information through the media to road users were evaluated. The evaluation looked into the increase in awareness level among road users in terms of their cognitive, affective and conative inclination with different mode of media information.

In order to further evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation of the Ops, several research projects which were targeted at different road users’ behaviour were carried out. These include a speed study, a study on the perception of being caught (POBC) among road users and bus drivers, research on the compliance of helmet use and the type of helmet used, a study on the passengers’ perceived safety level of express buses, a study on seatbelt use and overtaking behaviour. These studies were carried out close to the vicinity of the enforcement areas by the related agencies.

The Ops enforcement programme was conducted to increase compliance with the traffic laws and the perception of being caught among road users. A high POBC indicates that road users believes they are more likely to be caught if they infringe on the traffic regulations, hence modify their behaviour towards better safety. This programme may not be totally effective but



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the operations are still relevant to prevent the drastic increased in number of accidents and its efforts should be continued by employing new approaches in order to improve compliance with rules and regulations. Our study shows that a high percentage of road users are still of the opinion that despite committing traffic offences, their probability of being fined by the authorities is low. However, a specific POBC study on bus drivers clearly indicated a very high belief of being caught if they break traffic laws.

The Ops period in 2011 was seen to be effective when strategic enforcement was implemented. The results on the speed analysis, helmet use, and the POBC showed that the Ops were effective as there were specific enforcement activities aimed at tackling those problem areas. However, the rate of seatbelt use decreased because road users were aware that there was no enforcement activity carried out to catch road users who were not using their seatbelts. This shows that general enforcement does not change the attitude or perception of being caught among the road users. However, strategic enforcement was effective as can be seen on the bus drivers, motorcyclists with regards to helmet use; positive results confirming the effectiveness and success of the strategic enforcement were evident.



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1.0 Introduction

The recent integrated operation, ‘Ops Bersepadu’ (Ops) during the 2011 Raya festival was the 24th in the series since it was begun in the year 1997. Despite the efforts put in by the related agencies for the Ops, the number of fatalities rose to a figure of 289 fatalities over a 15-day period during the recent 2011 Ops Raya. This increase from the previous Ops Raya in 2010 shows an alarming trend and raises the question on whether Ops Bersepadu is still effective since its first implementation.

During the 2011 Ops Bersepadu Raya, the Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) has adopted different strategies in its 24th Ops Sikap; that is utilising the soft approach. This approach emphasises on advocacy and advising motorists and motorcyclists instead of only issuing summonses. The Road Transport Department (JPJ) took a similar approach to the PDRM and also minimised or did not set up roadblocks during the Ops Raya 2011. Other programmes carried out include promotion of toll rates discounts for those travelling during off-peak periods and the banning of heavy vehicles on the road on specific days before and after Raya. Advocacy through the media portal was run continuously before and during the Ops period. However, despite the efforts put in, the number of accidents and fatalities increased from that of the 2011 Ops CNY. There is a 31% increase in motorcycle fatalities recorded for Ops Bersepadu Raya 2011.

MIROS, in its effort to evaluate the effectiveness of the 2011 Ops Bersepadu has again developed a number of research projects. The projects include road users’ information (from the media), speed change study, study on perception of being caught among road users and bus drivers, compliance of helmet use, compliance of seatbelt use among vehicle occupants, safety level of express bus from passenger’s perspective and overtaking behaviour during Ops.



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The current situational analysis of accidents and fatalities during the Ops over the last three years was conducted and compared. This report summarises the findings of the research in general. The findings showed that specific and strategic enforcement had significantly improved road safety. It was also observed that accident and fatality statistics during Ops are not any different from those of normal days although traffic flow normally doubles or triples during the festive seasons. Therefore the enforcement approach has to be reviewed and should not only be focused during the festive seasons. In order to make a stronger impact, enforcement activities throughout the year have to be strategised together with efforts from other agencies such as the road authorities, private road concessionaires, the public transport operators and the Ministry of Health.

2.0 Analysis of Current Situation – Accident, Traffic Volume, Risks and Crash Investigation

2.1 Accident data analysis based on Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) data

2.1.1 Introduction

The accident data for the 15 days of the Ops Raya period was obtained daily from the Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) website. The data gathered were total accidents, total fatal accidents, total fatalities, and total fatalities by vehicle type. The data collected within this period is considered as preliminary data as it may differ slightly from the data obtained officially from PDRM at the end of the year. The preliminary data may be lower as compared to the official data obtained at the end of the year which includes all deaths within the 30 days instead of the daily data obtained during the Ops period.



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The vehicle type for the preliminary data was classified into nine main categories. The categories for vehicle types are car, motorcycle, pedestrian, lorry, bus, van, jeep, bicycle and others.

2.1.2 Hypothesis

The evaluation was performed to confirm the hypotheses below.

• The number of total accidents, overall fatalities and motorcyclist fatalities during Ops Raya 2011 are lower than those of Ops Raya 2010 and 2009.

• The number of overall fatalities and motorcycle fatalities during Ops Raya 2011 are lower than those of the normal days in the year 2011.

• The number of total accidents and overall fatalities during Ops Raya 2011 are lower than those of Ops CNY 2011.

2.1.3 Findings

2.1.3.1 General evaluation

The number of total accidents, fatal accidents and fatalities distribution during the Ops Raya 2011 is shown in Figure 1. Generally the figures show a downward trend from day 3 towards the first day of Raya. Unfortunately the downward trend did not continue, instead it gradually increased starting on the second day of Raya towards the end of the 2011 Ops Raya period. The accident figure is in the range between 950 and 1,650 daily. The total number during this 15-day period is 19,606. The highest number of accident was recorded on the fourth day of Ops Raya 2011 (1,625) where it was suspected that most travellers started travelling back to their hometown due to the long holiday in the following week. The first day of Raya only recorded 980 accidents and is the lowest daily number of accidents during the 2011 Ops Raya period.



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As a general rule, a fatal accident occurring in that period resulted in at least one fatality. Therefore in Figure 1 the number of fatalities will always be more or at least equal to the number of fatal accidents. It can be observed that there is only four days during which the number of fatalities is equal to the number of fatal accidents. During these days each fatal accident only resulted in one fatality, however during the rest of the Ops days there was at least one fatal accident resulting in more than one fatality. The lowest number of fatal accidents and the lowest number of fatalities during this Ops period was recorded on 6 September with nine fatal accidents. The highest number of fatal accidents and fatalities occurred on 2 September. On that day 25 fatal accidents were recorded which led to 28 fatalities.

Figure 2 shows the number of daily fatalities by type of road users. From a total of 201 deaths during this Ops, the most frequent road user group that is involved in road accidents and the resulting deaths is the motorcyclists with 61.6% of the overall fatality. Car occupants recorded the second highest fatality rate after motorcyclists; contributing to 23.2% of the overall fatality. There were 12 fatalities among pedestrians which is the third highest contributor to the statistics during the Ops. There was no fatality among bus occupants recorded during this Ops. The fatalities for

Figure 1 Daily data for accidents, fatal accidents and fatalities during Ops Raya 2011



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users of jeeps, vans and lorries are about 3% each and fatalities among bicycle and other users were only 1.2% respectively.

Throughout the 2011 Ops Raya, motorcyclists recorded the highest number of fatalities everyday. The highest number of motorcycle fatalities was recorded on 28 August with 18 fatalities, followed by 5 September with 17 fatalities. On average there were about 12 motorcycle fatalities daily during this 15-day period. Meanwhile for car occupants the highest number of fatalities recorded was eight on 4 September. On the first day of Ops Raya 2011 the number of fatalities among car occupants was at its lowest with only one fatality recorded. During the 2011 Ops Raya the daily average of car occupant fatalities was four. The average number of pedestrian fatalities during this period is 1.3 daily.

Generally the figure indicates that the highest number of accidents and fatalities were concentrated on various types of roads (refer to Figure A2.1 in Appendix A). The highest number of accidents occurred on municipal roads with 36.88% of the overall accidents, meanwhile federal roads recorded the highest number of fatalities with 47.06% of the overall fatalities during the Ops. Both total accidents and fatalities were lowest on other

Figure 2 Daily fatalities during Ops Raya 2011 by road user type



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types of roads. Only 10.10% and 9.43% of the total accidents and fatalities respectively occurred on expressways. Hence it can be concluded that federal roads are more dangerous during the Ops seasons because they lead to the highest number of fatalities although the number of total accidents recorded was very much lower. Meanwhile accidents which occurred on municipal roads were less severe as compared to those that occurred on other types of roads.

2.1.3.2 Comparison Ops Raya 2011 to Ops Raya 2010 and 2009

The total number of accidents, fatalities and motorcycle fatalities during Ops Raya 2009, 2010 and 2011 are shown in Figure 3. The total number of accidents for Ops Raya 2009 is 17,335. This figure is 3% less than that of Ops Raya 2010; 16,817. However there is a marked increase of 16.6% in the total number of accident cases; an increase from 16,817 to 19,606 cases between Ops Raya 2010 and Ops Raya 2011. The total number of accidents during the 2011 Ops Raya is 13.1% higher as compared to that of the 2009 Ops Raya. During the 2009 Ops Raya, the number of fatalities recorded was 265; a reduction of 17 cases to 248 during the 2010 Ops Raya. Similarly, the total number of accidents and fatalities during the 2011 Ops Raya increased by 16.5% as compared to that of the 2010 Ops Raya. The pattern is also similar to the total number of accidents and deaths among motorcyclists during the 2011 Ops Raya as compared to the two previous Ops. There were 148 motorcycle fatalities during the 2009 Ops Raya; a reduction by five cases during the 2010 Ops Raya. Unfortunately the figure increased tremendously by 24.5% to 178 cases during the 2011 Ops Raya.

A one-way ANOVA test was performed to compare the mean difference of these three variables during Ops Raya 2011 to the two previous Ops Raya. The increase in the number of total accidents during the 2011 Ops Raya as compared to the 2010 Ops Raya is statistically significant (p


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not found to be statistically significant (p>0.05). Conversely the increase in both overall fatality and motorcycle fatality statistics during the 2011 Ops Raya as compared to the two previous Ops was not found to be statistically significant.

2.1.3.3 Comparison of Ops Raya 2011 to normal days 2011

The data from January to May 2011 was used to project the data for the 15 normal days of 2011. For this period, the projected number of total accidents is 17,802 and the projected number of deaths is 273. The number of motorcyclist deaths was projected to be 168 for the period of 15 normal days.

Chi square analysis was performed to investigate the difference in the number of deaths (overall and motorcycle) and total number of accidents during Ops Raya 2011 and the normal days of 2011. The results from the analysis clearly indicate that the increase in the number of deaths for both overall and motorcycle deaths between these two periods is not significant (p>0.05) (refer to Table A1.4 in Appendix A).

Figure 3 Fatalities, motorcycle fatalities and total accidents during Ops Raya 2009, 2010, 2011



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2.1.3.4 Comparison of Ops Raya 2011 to Ops CNY 2011

The performance of the 2011 Ops Raya was also compared to the 2011 Ops CNY. Generally it can be observed that all data during the 2011 Ops Raya is higher than that of Ops CNY. On average, the daily number of accidents during the 2011 Ops CNY is 1,152 as compared to 1,307 during Ops Raya 2011. On average, the daily fatalities during the 2011 Ops CNY is 13.3 but the daily average of Ops Raya 2011 increased by 44.4% to 19.2. The total number of accidents and overall fatalities during the 2011 Ops Raya are significantly higher as compared to that of Ops CNY 2011 (p


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Unlike the total number of accidents, the increase in the total number of deaths and motorcycle deaths during the 2011 Ops Raya are not significant when compared to figures of 2010 and 2009. Likewise, the increase in motorcyclist fatalities during Ops Raya when compared to that of Ops CNY is not significant. The consistently high number of motorcyclist fatalities either before or during Ops shows no significant difference. The Ops seems to have no effect on motorcyclist fatalities.

2.2 Traffic Volume Analysis

2.2.1 Introduction

Traffic volumes were expected to increase during the 2011 Ops Raya period, contributing towards higher vehicle-kilometre travel (VKT) among road users that would eventually translate into a higher crash risk. Therefore it is important to observe the relationship between volume and crashes in traffic management planning, in the effort to reduce the number of future crashes.

The data obtained for this study was provided by the Malaysian Highway Authority (LLM) and ‘Pengurusan Lebuhraya Utara Selatan’ (PLUS). The data obtained for the analysis comprises the classified traffic volume and the total number of crashes which occurred on four expressways (PLUS, LEKAS, LPT and KL-Karak) for the period of 8 August until 21 September 2011. Vehicle count was performed on a daily basis based on the number of vehicles entering each toll plaza along selected expressways.

2.2.2 Hypothesis

The main objective of this study is to observe the effects of the holiday seasons on the traffic volume trend; especially the effectiveness of the strategy of banning heavy vehicles and the effects of volume on the number of crashes. In this study the following hypotheses were tested.



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• There is a significant increase in traffic volume during Ops period as compared to before the Ops period for the expressways.

• There is a significant increase in crashes during Ops period as compared to before the Ops period for the expressways.

• There is a significant relationship between the average traffic volume to the number of crashes for the expressways throughout the observation period.

• The strategy to ban heavy vehicles during the Ops period is effective.

2.2.3 Findings

2.2.3.1 Average daily traffic volume

The traffic volume data from the PLUS Expressway, LEKAS Expressway, Kuala Lumpur-Karak Expressway and East Coast Expressway (LPT) was obtained. Figure 4 shows the classified traffic volume data before, during, after for the KL-Karak Expressway. Private motor vehicles (Class 1) were the largest group of users of the four expressways. There was an increase in traffic volume during the Ops Raya as compared to before and after Ops. The traffic volume increased 12%, an increase from 1.3 million to 1.45 million vehicles along these four expressways. The traffic volume charts for PLUS, LEKAS and LPT are shown in Figures B2.1, B2.2 and B2.3 in Appendix B.



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Heavy vehicles were banned from using the roads during two periods i.e. on 27–28 August , and 3–4 September. Figure 5 shows the volume profile of heavy vehicles on the four expressways before, during and after Ops. It was observed that the volume of heavy vehicles was low from 27 August to 4 September 2011 whereas the average traffic volume dropped from 50,000 to approximately 30,000 per day. The overall percentage drop in heavy vehicles was 40%. This indicates that the strategy of banning heavy vehicles was observed by most lorry companies.

Figure 4 Traffic volume profile along the KL-Karak Expressway

Figure 5 Comparison of heavy vehicle volume at PLUS, LPT, KL-Karak and LEKAS Expressways



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2.2.3.2 Crash on expressway

Table 1 shows the number of crashes that occurred on the four expressways. It can be seen that KL-Karak shows the highest percentage of reduction, 45%, as compared to the other expressways. However, based on the absolute difference in number of crashes, PLUS expressway recorded the highest number of crash reduction during the Ops period as compared to before the Ops period. This is true since the denominator for the PLUS is higher as compared to KL-Karak, and the fact that PLUS covers a greater distance than KL-Karak which increases the commuters’ exposure and the chances of being involved in a crash is also higher for the commuters.

Expressway concessionaires

Before Ops During Ops Difference in number of crashes (%)Number of crashes Number of crashes

LEKAS 14 13 7

PLUS 383 354 7.5

KL-Karak 42 23 45

LPT 43 42 2

Table 1 Crash data on LEKAS, PLUS and KL-Karak Expressways

Figure 6 shows the distribution of traffic volume and accidents before, during and after the 2011 Ops Raya along the KL-Karak Expressway. Despite the fact there was a marked increase in traffic volume during the Ops, the increase in the number of accidents however was not significant. This finding is similar to those of the other three expressways, as can be seen in Figures B2.4, B2.5 and B2.6 in Appendix B.



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Figure 6 Traffic volume and accident along KL-Karak Expressway

2.2.3.3 Relationship between average daily traffic volume and number of crash on expressway

As can be seen in Table 2, the number of crashes showed a decreasing trend for before and during the Ops period with the highest reduction of 45% for the KL-Karak expressway despite the 70% increase in traffic volume. The increase in traffic volume contributed to the reduction of the number of crashes during the Ops period for the KL-Karak expressway. This reduction could be due to the increase in traffic flow which has reached optimal expressway capacity, resulting in the reduction of vehicle travelling speed and better safety.

Retrospectively, the LPT expressway recorded the highest increase in average daily traffic volume with 75% whilst the numbers of crashes for before and during the Ops period are almost similar. This shows that the increase in traffic volume has minimal effect on the commuters’ exposure since there was only a reduction of 2% in the number of crashes throughout the observation period.

From the traffic volume analysis it can be concluded that there is an increase in the traffic volume during the Ops period as



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compared to the before Ops period for expressways. This may be due to the high number of commuters on the road heading towards their home towns and visiting their relatives and friends during the Hari Raya period, taking advantage of the long holiday of the festive season.

The number of crashes occurring on the expressways showed no significant change for the same Ops period. The significant increase in the number of traffic volume on the expressways could be the reason behind the decreasing trend of crashes during the Ops period as compared to before the Ops period for the expressways.

Generally it can be seen from Table 2 that there is a reduction in the number of traffic crashes with the increase in average daily traffic volume but evidently a correlation test proved that there is no significant linear relationship between the average traffic volume and the number of crashes for the expressways throughout the observation period.

Expressway concessionaires

Before Ops During Ops Difference in average daily

traffic (%)

Difference in number

of crash (%)Average

daily trafficNumber of crash

Average daily traffic

Number of crash

LEKAS 35,137 14 48,145 13 37 7

PLUS 1,158,064 383 1,227,290 354 6 7.5

KL-Karak 78, 394 42 133,210 23 70 45

LPT 23,559 43 41,345 42 75 2

Table 2 Traffic volumes at each expressway

2.2.4 Summary

The evaluation on traffic volume over the Ops period was only carried out on four expressways namely PLUS, LEKAS, LPT and the KL-Karak expressways. No evaluation was performed on the federal roads or state roads due to the unavailability of data from the Highway Planning Unit, Ministry of Works. It was observed that although the traffic volume increased during the



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Ops period along these four expressways, there was a reduction in the occurrence of accidents during that period. The increase in traffic volume during the Ops did not cause any significant increase in the number of accidents on expressways. There was no significant change in the number of accidents before and during the period.

Finally the strategy of banning heavy vehicles during the period of 27 and 28 August, and 3 and 4 September is effective with a 40% reduction in the total heavy vehicle volume for the same observation period.

2.3 Motorcycle Risk Analysis

2.3.1 Introduction

Motorcyclist fatalities dominate the number of traffic accidents in Malaysia. Every year, motorcyclist fatalities hover around 60% of the total fatalities and the number remains high during festive seasons despite implementation of several intervention measures. To evaluate whether the risk faced by motorcyclists are higher during the festive seasons as compared to normal days, accident data such as the total fatalities and motorcyclist fatalities were obtained from the Royal Malaysia Police database for Ops CNY, Ops Raya and projected accident data for normal day periods between 2009 and 2011. The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the risk faced by motorcyclists during normal days, Ops Raya and Ops CNY.

2.3.2 Hypothesis

In this study, only one hypothesis was tested.

• Motorcyclists are more at risk during Ops Raya than during normal days.



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2.3.3 Findings

A relative risk (RR) analysis was performed on three years’ worth of accidents data for three different periods (Ops Raya, Ops CNY and projected 15-normal day period) from 2009 to 2011. Figure 7 depicts the motorcyclist fatality statistics during Ops CNY, Ops Raya and 15-day projected normal day periods between year 2009 and 2011. It is interesting to note that both Ops CNY and Ops Raya in 2010 had recorded a drop in motorcyclist fatalities but this took a turn for the worse in 2011. In this Ops Raya 2011, motorcyclist fatalities increased from 143 cases in Ops 2010 to 178 cases in Ops 2011 (around 25% increase). Evidently the total fatalities during Ops Raya was generally higher than Ops CNY in the past two years (at 17%–31% higher). However, despite the lower absolute number of fatalities during Ops CNY, it has higher proportion of motorcyclist fatalities as compared to that of the Ops Raya. Ops CNY 2011 recorded 68.3% of motorcyclist fatalities while motorcyclists accounted for 61.5% of the total number of fatalities during Ops Raya 2011.

Figure 7 Motorcyclist fatalities from 2009 to 2011



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Further analysis of accidents involving motorcycles shows that the RR of motorcyclists who were involved in fatal accidents during Ops Raya 2011 is 1.002 times higher as compared to that of the normal days (refer Table 3). In other word, the RR of motorcyclist fatalities during Ops Raya 2011 is approximately the same as normal day. While comparing the motorcyclist fatalities 2011 with year 2009, it was found out that the RR of motorcyclist fatalities of Ops Raya is 1.10 times higher than that of the 2009 Ops Raya (Table 4).

Period of time Total of fatalities MC fatalities Percentage RR

Normal day 273 168 61.5 (base)

Ops Raya 289 178 61.6 1.002

Table 5 presents the results of RR for motorcyclist fatalities in year 2011 for Ops CNY and Ops Raya. The results show that the RR for motorcyclist fatalities is 1.11 times higher than that of Ops Raya.

Table 3 Relative risk of motorcyclist fatalities in year 2011 (Ops Raya vs normal days)

Year Total of fatalities MC fatalities RR motorcycle

Normal day

OpsCNY

Ops Raya

Normal day

OpsCNY

Ops Raya

Normal day

OpsCNY

Ops Raya

2009 281 212 265 169 152 148 Base

2010 288 201 248 169 122 143 0.98 0.85 1.03

2011 273 199 289 168 136 178 1.02 0.95 1.10

Table 4 Relative risk of motorcyclist fatalities in year 2011 (with reference to year 2009)

Period of time Total of fatalities MC fatalities Percentage RR

Ops Raya 289 178 61.6 (base)

Ops CNY 199 136 68.3 1.11

Table 5 Relative risk of motorcyclist fatalities in year 2011 (Ops CNY vs Ops Raya)



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Using the annual fatality profiles from the year 2009 as base, it was found out that the ratio of change in motorcyclist fatalities during Ops Raya 2011 is 1.34 when compared with Ops CNY in Table 6. This can be seen from the increase of 20% of fatalities during Ops Raya from 2009 to 2011 while there was a decline of fatalities during Ops CNY for the same period. The change in Ops Raya 2011 motorcyclist fatalities with reference to year 2009 is 1.21 times of the normal day period.

Year Motorcycle fatalities Ratio of change for MC fatalities

Normal day Ops CNY Ops Raya Ops CNY vs normal day

Ops Raya vs normal day

Ops Raya vs CNY

2009 169 152 148 - - -

2010 169 122 143 0.80 0.97 1.20

2011 168 136 178 0.90 1.21 1.34

Table 6 Ratio of change in MC fatalities with reference to year 2009

Motorcycle fatalities contributed around 56%–62% of the total number of fatalities during Ops Raya 2009–2011 and the fatalities profile is increasing. The RR of motorcycle fatalities in Ops Raya 2011 is 1.10 times greater than Ops Raya 2009. The results reveal that motorcyclists were slightly at risk during Ops Raya 2011 than during normal days (1.002 times) but the RR for motorcycle fatalities during Ops Raya was marginally lower than Ops CNY (0.901 times).

2.3.4 Summary

Motorcyclists were only slightly more at risk during Ops Raya when compared to normal day. Therefore it is indispensable that advocacy and enforcement activities towards the safety of the motorcyclists should be planned and executed throughout the year and not just during the Ops during festive seasons. Likewise the motorcyclists are more at risk during Ops Raya when compared to Ops CNY. Thus it is vital to see the differences in terms of exposure, travel pattern and the specific enforcement activities during CNY as compared to those undertaken during Raya.



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2.4 In-depth Road Crashes Investigation

2.4.1 Introduction

Crash investigation on high profile cases is an operationalised programme, conducted throughout the year. By definition, any cases involving three fatalities and above will be considered for case selection. Similar to previous Ops, any high profile cases which occurred during Ops will be selected and summarised into a case report study. From all Ops activities since 2009 until Ops CNY 2011, the MIROS Crash Investigation Team has investigated 18 high profile cases involving 64 fatalities.

However due to the increase in the number of fatal motorcycle crashes in the recent Ops, the criteria for case selection was revised. To date, none of motorcycle crashes has been captured throughout the crash investigation operation during the Ops period. It is widely known that motorcycle casualties hold the highest percentage of road traffic crashes in Malaysia. Even in the Ops 2011 the number of motorcycle fatality cases (178 fatal cases) increased with the average of 11 to 17 fatalities per day.

Thus for this year’s Ops, a new approach has been taken by the Crash Investigation Team in order to tackle the problem. The team has decided to expand the in-depth investigation operation of motorcycle crashes during the Ops. This new approach is hoped to be able to provide more findings on the issues related to motorcycle and also high profile cases.

The areas of in-depth investigation are vehicle condition, damage profiles, environment details, injury details of occupants and the most probable contributing factor of the investigated crash. This detailed investigation will provide specific insights into how the crashes and corresponding injuries occur.

The notification of the crashes that happened during the 2011 Ops Raya was acquired through the media. Based on the media coverage, it was found out that 26 cases involving fatalities



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happened during the Ops period. Out of the 26 fatal cases, only two cases which resulted in three deaths and above were identified.

2.4.2 Findings

2.4.2.1 In-depth crash investigation on high profile cases (three deaths and above)

Both high profile cases were investigated by the Crash Investigation Team. The summary and the detail investigation findings are as follows.

Case 1: Batu Pahat case (three fatalities)The crash happened on 4th September 2011 approximately at about 0245 hours at KM 113.6, Jalan JB–Seremban involving a Perodua Kancil and a Proton Saga. The crash happened when the Perodua Kancil suddenly swerved into the opposite lane and collided head-on with the oncoming Proton Saga. The weather was reported to be fine during the crash. Due to the collision, three occupants of the Perodua Kancil died while, two of the Proton Saga occupants sustained minor injuries while the remaining two escaped uninjured.

The crash scene investigation revealed no road defect. The stretch where the accident happened was a straight, two-lane single carriageway road with broken line median marking. Street lights were available along the stretch. Both vehicles were inspected and all the pertaining damages were measured. The inspection showed that the Perodua Kancil sustained severe frontal damages with intrusion to the front passengers space while the Proton Saga sustained minor frontal damages without intrusion.

Based on the evidence and findings gathered, there is a high probability that driver fatigue could have contributed to the crash. This was supported by the fact that the crash happened during the wee-hours and the Perodua Kancil driver has been travelling for a long distance (from Kelantan to Johor). The cause



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of death of the Kancil occupants is the internal injuries as a result of their failure to use their seatbelts. In addition, structural incompatibility of both vehicles may have contributed to the severity of the crash. The Kancil showed poor performance in terms of its crashworthiness as compared to the Saga.

Case 2: Lahad Datu case (four fatalities)The crash occurred at about 0800 hours on 5th September 2011 at KM 24 Jalan Lahad Datu–Sandakan. The crash involved a car (Proton Saga) and a pick-up truck. The car driver had been trying to overtake a mini bus at a long corner and collided with the oncoming pick-up truck. Four occupants of the car died while one occupant was seriously injured. The occupants of the pick-up truck suffered minor injuries due to the collision.

The crash happened at the curved single carriageway with double line median marking road. No road defect was observed at the crash site. The car was completely wrecked as a result of the collision while the pick-up truck sustained minor frontal damages.

The primary event that led to the crash was the attempt to overtake at a double line and at a bend by the Proton driver. The issue of incompatibility is prominent in this case whereby mismatched height geometry was identified. The stiffer part of the pick-up truck struck the upper structure of the car, leading to higher severity of injuries to the car occupants. The car also displayed severe structural corrosion which may indicate aging that might have also contributed to the high number of lives lost in the accident.

2.4.2.2 In-depth crash investigation on motorcycle crashes

Out of 178 cases involving motorcycles nationwide, 75 cases were included in this study. The highest involvement of motorcyclists in terms of age was those aged 16 to 30 (52%) and followed by



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those aged more than 30 (33%). Over 90% of the motorcyclists are male. A majority of the crashes occurred during the night and wee hours (52%) followed by those happening in the evening (17%).

Distribution of cases by road type shows that, federal roads account for the highest number in terms of road type (36%) followed by municipal roads (29%). Multiple vehicle crashes are predominant; accounting for 71% of cases whereas only 29% of the cases were single vehicle crashes. Crash configuration of multiple vehicle crashes revealed that, motorcycles which collided with cars account for 55%, other motorcycles (23%), MPVs and SUVs (5.4%) and lorries (16.1%). The head on and side impact collisions were 25% respectively.

A majority of the motorcyclists were not legitimate license holders (41%) followed by motorcyclists who were licensed (30%). 14% of the cases were classified as unknown. Among the non-licensed group, the figure was over represented by the age group 16 to 30 (57%) whereas 17% belonged to the age group 16 and below (refer to Table C1.1 in Appendix C).

Majority of motorcyclist (41%) which involved in motorcycle fatal crashes did not convict any violation based of violation categories. Speeding and loss of control account for the second highest (21%) followed by overtaking (15%) and reckless turning (11%). In term of injury outcome, 57% of the cases were identified as death during transportation/hospital case.



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Category Subcategory Frequency (%)

Age of occupant 30 27 (33.3)

Gender of occupant Male 75 (92.6)

Female 6 (7.4)

Time of crash 0:00–5:59 20 (26.0)

6:00–8:59 7 (9.1)

9:00–11:59 7 (9.1)

12:00–13:59 5 (6.5)

14:00–15:59 5 (6.5)

16:00–19:59 13 (16.9)

20:00–23:59 20 (26.0)

Type of road Expressway 3 (3.9)

Federal 28 (36.4)

State 19 (24.7)

Municipal 22 (28.6)

Village Road 5 (6.5)

Collision type SVA 23 (29.5)

Tree 0 (0.0)

Narrow object 2 (8.7)

Wide object (fence/parked car) 2 (8.7)

Barrier 5 (21.7)

Other (animal, pedestrian, hole) 4 (17.4)

Drain embankment culvert 6 (26.1)

Multiple 55 (70.5)

Passenger car 30 (54.5)

Motorcycle 13 (23.6)

MPV/SUV 3 (5.5)

Bus 1 (1.8)

Lorry 8 (14.5)

Crash configuration

Head-on 16 (29.6)

Mrear 10 (18.5)

Vrear 8 (14.8)

Side 17 (31.5)

Sideswipe 3 (5.6)

Table 7 Crash characteristic of fatal related motorcycle crash



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2.4.3 Summary

Based on the investigated cases, crash compatibility issue is the prominent issue in both cases that might have led to the severity of the occupant injury. This finding is similar to that of MIROS Crash Investigation and Reconstruction Annual Statistical Report that mentioned crash compatibility contributes the highest percentage of passenger car crashes; around 14.7%. While the report also found out that risky driving and fatigue are the most common causes of crash. Fatigue accounts for 7.7% of crashes involving passenger cars and risky driving accounts for 18% of the number of cases involving passenger cars. This result is similar to the finding of the investigated cases whereby fatigue and risky driving were identified as the most probable contributing factor to the crashes.

Nevertheless, the two investigated cases are not applicable in representing the scenario of the high profile cases happening in Malaysia especially during Ops 24 as the number of the investigated cases is too limited. Using Media Portal as the only medium to monitor the daily number of crashes happening was not sufficient in capturing the real number. This condition was determined as one of the limitations in the in-depth crash investigation on high profile cases (three deaths and above) operation during Ops 24 that needs to be taken into account. Moreover, the lack of manpower to attend and investigate crashes that happened during Ops 24 also need to be considered as a limitation in this operation.

It might seem intuitive that the increase of number of vehicle travelling from urban to rural during this festive season might contribute to the increase in crashes involving urban drivers in rural counties. However this study shows that this may not necessarily be true. A majority of motorcyclists and other vehicle users were identified as resident to the county. However, several caveats have to be made. Firstly, this study does not make any comparison between the number of cases involving non-resident vehicles before and during the Ops period. Secondly, motorcycles may not accurately represent the effect of the



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increase in the number of vehicles during the Ops with the overall number of crashes. Based from the result, most of the cases involving local travel were experienced by motorcyclists. It may indicate that the use of motorcycle is mainly for shorter distances instead of for extended journeys.

3.0 Advocacy

3.1 Road User Information (Media)

3.1.1 Introduction

Advocacy programmes for road users is one of the most important strategies in an effort to reduce accident fatalities and change road user behaviour. It is conducted to determine the effects of road safety information among road users during the Ops Hari Raya period. The monitoring of the degree of advocacy is divided into two: (i) the dosage of road safety messages; (ii) the level of awareness on road safety messages.

The exposure of road safety information is derived from a database that monitors news and road safety information through the media (television, radio and newspaper). Meanwhile the level of awareness on road safety messages is determined through surveys conducted among road users. The dosage was derived from a database that was employed to monitor news related to road safety. However, there are limitations to the dosage monitoring whereby the road safety advertisements were only from the Road Safety Department. This is due to the confidentiality of data from other companies in revealing their advertisements and time of broadcast.



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3.1.2 Hypothesis

• There is an increase in media exposure of road safety during Ops period.

• Media exposure increases the awareness level (cognitive, affective and conative) among road users.

3.1.3 Findings

Figure 8 shows the frequency of the exposure on road safety messages through the media. It was observed that there was an increment of 40.4% of exposure of road safety information from before to during the Ops. After the Ops period, the level of exposure was reduced to a mean of 27 per day.

The level of awareness on road safety among users lies high on affective (84.3%) whereby the respondents agreed that they feel the need to be safe on the road. A total of 82.1% respondents admitted that they changed their behaviour (conative) during the Raya period. However, only a total of 48.6% of respondents agreed that road safety information received during the Ops Raya period has increased their knowledge (cognitive) on road

Figure 8 Frequency of media exposure



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safety. This has shown the importance of road safety messages during the 2011 Ops Raya. Figure 9 shows the level of awareness before, during and after the Ops period at different exposure frequencies.

Figure 9 Media exposure and awareness level

3.1.4 Summary

Information on road safety is still crucial in reminding road users to be safe on the road. This can be seen through the surveys that when there is high exposure to information, the level of awareness is also quite high when referring to change of behaviour.

However, the road safety information must be channelled correctly to reach the targeted road users. This is to ensure that road users from all target groups are exposed to road safety information.



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4.0 Specific Studies Related to the Ops

In light of determining the effectiveness of the Ops programme several analyses on enforcement-related activities were conducted. These include the analysis on speed change behaviour, the perception of being caught among road users, helmet and seatbelt use compliancy, overtaking behaviour, the perception of being caught among bus drivers and passengers’ perception on the safety of public buses.

4.1 Speed Change Study

4.1.1 Introduction

Speeding has been found to be one of the major contributing factors to road accidents. Speeding is the number one road safety problem in most countries around the world. A study has shown that a 5% reduction in the average travelling speed could result in a 20% reduction in fatalities (OECD/ECMT 2006).

Enforcement is also known to influence the drivers’ behaviour towards speeding. Research indicates that the presence of enforcement activities (e.g. speed trap, automated enforcement system) can lead to the reduction in the mean speed (Richard et al. 2003; Nathaniel et al. 1996). During the Ops, the national speed limit for federal roads was reduced from 90 km/h to 80 km/h which included all these four study locations.

This study was carried out in conjunction with the commencement of the 2011 Ops Raya. During the 2011 Ops Raya, the national federal road speed limit was reduced to 80 km/h. The objective of this study is to give an overview of the effect of police monitoring enforcement activities on the speed behaviour. It also studies the difference in speed profile during and after the Ops.



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4.1.2 Hypothesis

• The mean speed during the Ops is lower as compared to the mean speed after the Ops.

• The mean speed around police observation spots (PMS) is lower than the mean speed around areas without police observation.

4.1.3 Findings

4.1.3.1 Speed during and after Ops

It was observed that the mean speed after the Ops is higher as compared to the speed during the Ops. From the statistical analysis, it was found out that generally, the mean speed during the Ops is significantly lower than the mean speed after the Ops (p < 0.05). Table 8 below shows the mean speed for all the study locations during and after the Ops.

The lower speed during the Ops may be due to the road users perception of police monitoring at the PMS. This may lead road users to lower their travelling speed. Additionally, higher volume of traffic during the Ops may lead to lower travelling speed. Table 2 shows that there is a lower traffic volume consistently across the locations after the Ops. In overall, traffic volume after the Ops is 14.3% lower compared to during the Ops (refer to Table D1.1 in Appendix D).

Table 8 Comparison of mean speed during and after Ops

Location During Ops After Ops

Segamat 76.5 82.8

Tampin 72.5 71.3

K. Selangor 89.4 89.2

T. Malim 84.3 85.0

Overall 80.8 82.2



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4.1.3.2 Speed at Locations Without and With Police Monitoring Spots

Table 9 shows a comparison of the mean speed between sites without and with PMS. It is clearly seen that the speed around locations with PMS was generally lower as compared to the mean speed at locations without PMS. All the four locations consistently show a similar pattern. The results of the statistical analysis on the mean speed indicates that the mean speed at sites with PMS is significantly lower than mean speed at sites without PMS (p


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Kuala Selangor recorded the highest percentage of road users travelling above the speed limit. This may be due to the difference in road geometry between Kuala Selangor and the other locations. The Kuala Selangor road is a four-lane dual carriageway road while roads in other locations are two-lane single carriageway roads. The road geometric properties of Kuala Selangor with its multi lanes encourage speeding and provides extra room for over taking. On the other hand, Tampin shows the lowest percentage of road users who exceeded the speed limit. This may be due to Tampin’s narrower road geometry.

4.1.4 Summary

The presence of PMS does give a positive effect to road users’ travelling speed. Result shows that sites with the presence of police monitoring recorded a significantly lower speed profile compared to sites without. This positive finding can be used by enforcement authorities to plan necessary strategies in an effort to improve road safety.

Figure 10 Speed behaviour during and after the Ops



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Despite the reduction in speed during the Ops, road users were still driving above the speed limit.

It can be concluded that Ops Raya 2011 is not fully effective in changing the behaviour of road users into complying with the lower speed limit during the Ops campaign. This can be seen from the higher percentage of road users who exceeded the speed limit during the Ops. Thus, stricter enforcement should be exercised in order to curb road users from driving over the speed limit, and the issuing of summonses might reduce the percentage of users who go over speed limit.

4.2 Study on the Perception of Being Caught Among Road Users

4.2.1 Introduction

In order to instill discipline among road users, various initiatives and preventive measures with regard to the enforcement aspect had been undertaken by the respective government agencies. As a result, the Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) and together with the Road Transport Department (JPJ) and Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD) had conducted an Integrated Safety Ops to coincide with the Raya holiday season by combining several enforcement programmes which included enforcement operations along expressways, federal roads and state roads; technical inspection of public vehicles in depots and bus terminals throughout the Peninsular; reduction of ticket touts; and prohibition of freight vehicles from using the federal road.

The focus of this study is on the enforcement aspect of the authorities. The main purpose is to measure the effectiveness of enforcement activities conducted by the authorities throughout the duration of the Ops. For this study, it only focuses on road users’ perception of the probability of being caught (POBC) covering the two periods, during and after the implementation of the integrated enforcement activities for the 2011 Aidilfitri celebration.



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4.2.2 Hypothesis

• There was a difference in the mean scores of overall POBC for traffic offences for three main periods (before, during and after implementation of Ops Bersepadu Hari Raya Aidilfitri) from the years 2008–2010.

• There was a difference in the mean scores of overall POBC for traffic offences for two main periods (during and after implementation of Ops Bersepadu Hari Raya Aidilfitri) year 2011.

• There was a difference in traffic enforcement visibility in road users’ perception during and after the Ops enforcement programme.

4.2.3 Findings

4.2.3.1 Mean scores of overall POBC from the years 2008–2010

In order to observe the pattern of the perception of being caught, the collected data was categorised into three main time periods, namely before the Ops, during the Ops and after the Ops. The percentage of road users’ perception of being caught was determined for each Ops period of the festive seasons.

Table 10 illustrates the summary of the percentage of road users’ perception of being caught according to Ops Raya period year 2008 until 2011. Before the Ops, the percentages of road users’ perception of being caught were very low for Ops Raya year 2008 and 2009 as compared to the other periods (during Ops and after Ops). There were increments in road users’ perception of being caught for both years (2008 and 2009); 42% and 48%, respectively during the Ops. This might be due to road users’ awareness of the actual increase or the expectation of increased enforcement.

Subsequently, the road users’ perception of being caught diminished dramatically after the Ops Raya ended. In contrast



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with the 2010 Ops Raya, the percentage of road users’ perception of being caught before the Ops were the same as compared to during Ops (52%). The percentages increased to 55% right after the Ops Raya ended. For the 2011 Ops Raya, road users perceived that the probability of being caught for traffic offences was somewhat similar to that of during and after the implementation of the Ops with a variance of 2% only.

Table 10 Analysis in road users’ perception of being caught for 2008 until 2011 festival periods

PeriodOps Raya

2008 2009 2010 2011

Before Ops 35.4% 41.0% 51.7% -

During Ops 42.3% 48.0% 52.0% 48.0%

After Ops 37.2% 46.0% 55.3% 46.0%

The percentage collected was from 0 to 100% whereby 0% indicates perception of not being caught at all while a 100% would indicate a sure perception of being caught.The percentages of road users’ perception level of being caught were compared before, during and after the launch of the Ops.

An ANOVA test in Table 11 reveals that there were statistically significant differences in the mean scores of the overall POBC for traffic offences for three main periods (Ops Raya year 2008 and 2009). Road users’ overall POBC scores during Ops were higher than before and after the Ops for Ops Raya year 2008 and 2009. Thus, the road users’ overall POBC for traffic offences were affected by the implementation of Ops Raya.

However, there was no significant difference in the mean scores of overall POBC for traffic offences for three main periods in Ops Raya 2010. This may due to the current approaches or strategies undertaken by enforcer throughout the last 22 Ops Raya are almost similar and lacking the element of surprise. Furthermore, the public perceived that Ops Raya were being conducted and given emphasis for a period of 15 days during the festive seasons.



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4.2.3.2 Mean scores of overall POBC for traffic offences for two main periods during and after Ops Raya 2011

The traffic offences data was obtained by asking the respondents to rank the probability of being caught for 12 traffic offences based on their experience and knowledge (refer to Figure E2.1 in Appendix E). They are: a) speeding, b) beating traffic lights, c) queue-jumping, d) overtaking at a double line, e) illegal use of the emergency lane, f ) dangerously cutting into traffic, g) failure to use the front seatbelt while driving, h) failure to use rear seatbelt, i) failure to use a crash helmet while riding, j) overloading, k) using the mobile phone while driving, and i) tailgating.

Despite the fact that road users’ perception of being caught for committing specific traffic offences increased throughout the Ops periods, the road users felt that the probability of being caught was higher for some offences than for others. Here they are in a descending order: the failure to use a crash helmet while riding, speeding, using mobile phone while driving, beating traffic lights and overloading were perceived as posing the five highest probability of being caught.

Mean SD ANOVA Test

Raya 2010 F(2,1193) = 1.686, p=.186

Before Ops 5.1462 2.8539

During Ops 5.2030 2.9133

After Ops 5.5033 3.0774

Raya 2009 F(2,5284) = 33.773, p=.0001

Before Ops 4.0502 2.5716

During Ops 4.7576 2.7034

After Ops 4.5710 2.5921

Raya 2008 F(2,5397) = 42.002, p=.0001

Before Ops 3.5592 2.45844

During Ops 4.2691 2.47047

After Ops 3.7540 2.26968

Table 11 Comparison of road users’ perception of being caught between Ops for each Hari Raya (Year 2008–2010)



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Meanwhile, the failure to use the rear seatbelt, tailgating and dangerously cutting into traffic were perceived as posing the lowest probability of being caught. The failure to abide by rear seatbelt use regulations is in line with its negative perception on the probability of being caught for that particular offense. This is probably due to the lack of emphasis on the enforcement for that particular offense despite the fact that mandatory seatbelt use for rear passengers had taken effect since 1st January 2009.

Mean SD Independent-samples t-test

Raya 2011 t (798) = 1.083 , p = .279

During Ops 4.80 2.623

After Ops 4.60 1.638

Table 12 Comparison of road users’ perception of being caught between Ops for 2011 Hari Raya

The aim is to compare the mean scores of road users’ overall POBC for traffic offences. An independent-samples t-test was conducted to compare the mean scores of road users’ overall POBC for Ops Hari Raya periods. Based on Table 12, it can be seen that there is no significant difference in scores for during Ops (M = 4.80, SD = 2.623) and after Ops, M = 4.60, SD = 2.638; t (798) = 1.083, p = .279. The magnitude of the differences in the means (mean difference = .201, 95% CI: -.164 to .566) is very small (eta squared = 0.001).

4.2.3.3 Traffic enforcement visibility to road users’ perception during and after the Ops enforcement programme

From the results, it was found out that a majority of the respondents stated that there was medium visibility of enforcement activities during the Ops. Based on Figure 11, findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceived that there was also medium visibility of enforcement activities along the expressways and federal roads; 51.0% and 45%, respectively during the Ops.



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However after the Ops Raya, there was a decrease in visibility (45%) to the expressway users while the federal road users perceived higher visibility (53%). Throughout the Ops Raya, respondents perceived that visibility of enforcement activities were low especially along the federal roads with 36% and 23% respectively; expressways 38% and 18%.

A Mann-Whitney test was performed to test the difference in the enforcement visibility scores for Ops Hari Raya Aidilfitri periods. The test revealed that the enforcement visibility scores during the Ops (Md = 6.0, n = 400) were significantly higher than after the Ops (Md = 5.0, n = 400), U = 66655.5, z = -4.135, p = 0.00, r = - 0.15.

4.2.4 Summary

There was a significant difference in the mean scores of the overall POBC for traffic offences for three main periods, before, during and after implementation of the Ops Bersepadu Hari Raya Aidilfitri from the years 2008–2009.

There was no significant difference in the mean scores of the overall POBC for traffic offences for three main periods, before, during and after implementation of the Ops Bersepadu Hari Raya Aidilfitri year 2010.

Figure 11 Percentage of visibility of traffic enforcement at all locations



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There was a significant difference in the mean scores of the overall POBC for traffic offences for two main periods, during and after implementation of Ops Bersepadu Hari Raya Aidilfitri year 2011.

The traffic enforcement visibility in road users’ perception during and after the Ops enforcement programme, was medium.

4.3 Perception of Being Caught Among Bus Drivers

4.3.1 Introduction

A common practice during festival periods in Malaysia is that the enforcement agencies would conduct traffic enforcement activities which are known as the Ops in an attempt to reduce traffic violations and crashes. For the Hari Raya Aidilfitri of 2011, JPJ and SPAD have conducted enforcement operations on public transportations in depots and bus terminals nationwide. In general, the respective enforcement agencies implemented three methods of enforcement which are: i) profile of bus drivers and vehicles – at the 34 major bus terminals nationwide; ii) identify accident prone areas, 24 hours patrolling and static and visible enforcement; and iii) the prohibition of freight vehicles from using the roads. These programmes are conducted as one of the efforts to control and reduce the rate of crashes and fatalities on the roads reported every year.

This study focuses on the perceived risk of detection for bus drivers during normal days and during the implementation of the Ops. In order to gain an insight into the public view on the effectiveness of these approaches, bus drivers’ perception of being caught for committing traffic violations has to be evaluated. Basically, an increase or decrease in their perception will gauge the efficiency of the methods. In addition, the bus drivers’ perception towards the effectiveness of traffic enforcement methods throughout the Ops Bersepadu was measured.



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4.3.2 Hypothesis

• There is a difference in the mean scores of the overall POBC for traffic offences for the two periods (during Ops Raya and non-festive days).

• There is a difference in current enforcement methods in mean scores of overall POBC for traffic offences during Ops Raya.

4.3.3 Findings

4.3.3.1 Mean scores of overall POBC for traffic offences for two main periods (festival period and non-festival days)

In order to observe the pattern of perception of being caught among the bus drivers, the collected data was categorised into two main periods, namely the festival periods and non-festival days. The percentage of bus drivers’ perception of being caught was determined for each period.

Table 13 shows the analysis in bus drivers’ overall perception of being caught for two main periods. From the findings, it can be seen that bus drivers perceive a higher risk of detection during festival periods (70%) as compared to non-festival days if violating traffic rules (56%).

Mann-Whitney analysis was carried out to compare the mean score of bus drivers’ overall POBC for traffic offences for the two main periods. It can be observed that the increase in mean scores of overall POBC between the two main periods (festival periods and non-festive days) was significant (p


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Table 13 Analysis in bus drivers’ overall perception of being caught for two main periods

Period Percentage (%)

Festival period 69.5

Non-festival days 55.7

Table 14 Comparison of bus drivers’ perception of being caught for two main periods

Period Mean rank p-value

Mean scores POBC

Festival period 360.33 0.000

Non-festival days 260.67

4.3.3.2 Effectiveness of traffic enforcement methods conducted by respective enforcement agencies

Table 15 illustrates the mean scores of bus drivers’ perception on the effectiveness of traffic enforcement methods conducted by the respective enforcement agencies which included the Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM), Road Transport Department (JPJ) and Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD).

The bus drivers perceive that the enforcement methods conducted by JPJ were more effective (7.53) as compa

Documents

Evaluation of the E ectiveness of OPS BERSEPADU HARI RAYA 2011 03 (2012... · OPS BERSEPADU HARI RAYA 2011 Editors Jamilah Mohd Marjan, PhD Norlen Mohamed, MD Mohd Rasid Osman, P