Examining Threats of Violence and opportunities for peace in the 2015

Elections of Nigeria

Ifeanyi OkechukwuIfeanyi Okechukwu

National Network Coordinator, WANEP-NigeriaNational Network Coordinator, WANEP-Nigeria

Presentation Outline • Preamble

• Developed Indicators for Risk Analysis by WANEP

• Scope/Limitations

• Analysis of Election Risk Factors to 2015

• Scenarios

• Opportunities

Preamble

“ Elections without integrity are elections that do not allow citizens a credible safe and fair means of choosing their leaders and the policies they pursue through a peaceful institutional mechanism”

Kofi Annan. 2015

Preamble contd…

“ 2015 general elections in Nigeria are particularly significant in their potential to be the first truly contested elections featuring a viable opposition since the transition to civilian rule in 1999”

Africa Indepth. www.africapractice.com

Preamble contd…

The Flip side:

The electioneering process has raised an unusually level of tension across the country, with competing claims to the presidency along ethnic, religious and social lines…

Insecurity in the North East

Postponement of the Election

Public fear that the elections will be followed by greater degree of widespread violence in comparison to the 2011 post elections with grave implication for unity and security of the country.

Various predictions have emerged that suggests that Nigeria’s survival as a nation is dependent on how political actors and stakeholders conduct themselves before, during and after the general elections of 2015

Developed Indicators for Risk Analysis by WANEP

WANEP-Nigeria through its National Early Warning System (NEWS) embarked on a monitoring and analysis of risk factor that has potentials of destabilising the polity and creating widespread violence in the scheduled general elections in July 2014.

Developed Indicators for Risk Analysis by WANEP contd…

A total of 21 broad based indicators that highlights observable actions that raise violent threats were monitored and reporting on to generate a trend of risk factors and an understanding of the relationship between the indicators in reinforcing the predictions of widespread violence during and after the elections

Scope/Limitations

• Data are generated from just 26 states, the selection was based on the presence of existing monitors of WANEP NEWS. Some hot spot were initially excluded –Borno, Yobe etc and some gaps in data are evident.

• Data are not gathered from survey but a weekly monitoring of evident or reported incident.

Scope/Limitations

• This analysis represents aggregated 6 months data of reports (July to December 2014) some more development since then.

• A total of 324 reports were received from monitors.

• 5 out of the 21 indicators were selected for deeper analysis in this report.

Analysis of Election Risk Factors to 2015

• Negative or inciting statement made by political

actors reinforces violent emotions, division and

polarization of the polity.

A personalised, ethnic or religious campaign that

denigrates/dehumanise candidate fuels sentiments

among supporters that aggravates tensions with

likelihood of violence. The 2011 post presidential

violence is traced to inciting statement attributed to

candidates prior to the elections.

the pattern of current campaigns especially

attributed to political parties, and aspirants

have contributed to the existing tensions and

‘mirrored’ response that heats up the polity

•The media and social media is a vehicle

• Proliferation and use of SALW by unauthorized

persons is a threat to violence-free election.

• On-going Insurgency, ethnic/communal

violence…loss of border control.

• Poor regulation of local arms production increases the

likelihood of small arms misuse across communities. IED

• Lack of database of weaponry of security agencies

• Illegal arms use and proliferation is higher during political

transitions around electioneering process.

Increased sentiments and polarisation fostered by

various political interest groups in a bid to

intimidate or suppress dissenting voices have

increased incidents of misuse of arms.

• The controversies and protests on the collection of

Permanent Voters Card (PVC) increased agitations over

the implication of disenfranchisement of registered

voters and violence during the proposed elections.

• Some inciting statements that non-availability of card is

deliberate and political

INEC’s defence that card is available but owners

not willing to pick it up

Destruction of Party Secretariat and other structures

Prioritized Risk: Destruction of party secretariat and other structure

• The 6 months monitoring and reporting shows increasing levels of

direct attack by parties on opposition’s existing structures or

secretariat.

• Attacks in form of destruction of a party property, the defacing of

billboards and campaign structures e.t.c.

• Attacks escalated since the beginning of 2015 leading to -

destruction of vehicles, attack on convoy, bomb explosions at

rallies and burning of party secretariats etc.

Prioritized Risk: Escalation of Unresolved Conflict

• The tensions and escalating violence has been

closely linked to the polarisation of the polity along

ethnic and political lines. North vr South.

• Activities of political groups are reinforcing the

escalation of existing violent conflicts across the

states

• The availability of mobilised armed/militia groups

(Ombatse, Area Boys in Sokoto, Lagos, groups in Rivers

e.t.c.) is a catalyst for widespread violence.

• Benue and Nassarawa have been experiencing vicious

cycles of violence between different ethno-relgious

groups shows possible political manipulation/undertone

Scenarios

If Jega is forced to go on terminal leave…

Scenarios contd…

If millions of Nigerian claim disenfranchised on the basis of non receipt of PVCs

Scenarios contd…

If the National Assembly supports the formation of Interim Government…

Scenarios contd…

If the Court rules against the qualification of General Buhari to contest elections…

Scenarios Contd…

If Temporary Voters Card (TVC) is permitted for use on the basis of public protest…

Some Worse Cases…

Accusations and counter-accusations between the ruling party and

main opposition regarding the postponement of the election

degenerates into polarization along regional, religious and ethnic lines;

the credibility of the election is put to question and any move by the

election management body is viewed from a biased perspective among

the key actors. The conduct of the election is further made difficult by

the security situation providing the grounds for the current

administration to seek a 6- month interim arrangement; the public is

inflamed by this request and demonstrations and violence erupts in

various parts of the country – WANEP Policy Brief 2015

Worse Case contd…

The rumors that began before the postponement of the election that

the postponement is merely the first phase in an elaborate attempt to

prevent some candidates from contesting the presidential elections

continues to influence the opposition and some quarters of the country;

proliferation of arms that is already rampant in some parts of the

country due to the activities of militants and insurgents is further

mobilized and raises the likelihood of violence. Any pronouncement

that is not in tandem with the expectations of the opposition sparks

uncontrolled violence in various sections of the country

- WANEP Policy Brief 2015

A Best Case…

INEC leverages on the postponement of the election and ensure that more

eligible voters collect their Permanent Voters Card; INEC continues the

process of voter education and training of INEC ad hoc staff towards

ensuring increased synergy between them and all major stakeholders

including political parties, security operatives, international observers and

CSOs; International observers remain committed to monitoring the

electoral process; elections are held in atmosphere of transparency,

adjudged credible, free and fair with all parties accepting its outcome. A

government is inaugurated on May 29th and Nigeria demonstrate its

leadership in the region through a widely acceptable election and

democratic process - WANEP Policy Brief 2015

Opportunities…

Publicity and mass sensitization by INEC, National

Orientation Agency, CSO e.t.c.

Opportunities contd…

• Strict prosecution of persons who are culpable

of incitement and disruption of public peace and

safety.

• Strict regulation of local arms production and

control of cross border movement and

proliferation of small arms and light weapons

Opportunities contd…

Winning the ‘war’ against Boko Haram

Opportunities contd…

The National Broadcast Commission (NBC)

should be alive to its responsibility of

censoring recalcitrant media institutions to

discourage the use of their platform for

incitement into violence

Opportunities contd…

Increased engagement of the Inter-Party Committee (IPAC) to facilitate dialogue on non-violence between political leaders in an attempt to douse tension and get the commitment of these leaders to devolve peaceful engagements across their party structures

Opportunities contd…

Be conflict sensitive in their utterances to forestall situation where such utterances can be perceived or interpreted as incitement against public good

Opportunities contd…

With the absence of National or State level Peace

Infrastructure to address tension and grievance

during and after the elections, ECOWAS, EU etc.

to identify and engage non-partisan, Nigerian and

Non-Nigerian opinion leaders with the capacity to

influence the leadership of the political parties to

allow peaceful resolution of possible grievances

Thank you for the privilege

About the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding

WANEP

Established in 1998 as an organised civil society response to violent conflicts in the region.

Operational framework –

Networking for conflict prevention and peacebuiling

WANEP is the first CSO in West Africa with a

regional network of national chapters with physical

presence in all the15 member states of ECOWAS

WANEP currently has a membership of over 550 CSOs and CBOs across West Africa and 120 in Nigeria

Core thematic focus:

Early Warning

Women in Peacebuilding

Peace Education

Mediation and Dialogue

Peace Education

• WANEP is the Civil Society representative for West Africa at the level of AU Economic, Social and Cultural Council (ECOSOCC) General Assembly and belongs to the Peace and Security Cluster of the ECOSOCC as well as enjoys a consultative status with the UN.

• WANEP-ECOWAS Partnership – ECOWARN since 2002

• Member of the Mediation Support Network

• Past Chair of the Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (GPPAC)

Opportunities for internship at WANEP

3 Categories

1.Paid Internship

2.Non Paid Internship

3.Institutional Partnership

Thank You