Fdi Impact

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ECONOMICS II Final Project Report

Foreign Direct Investment and Its Impact on India

Submitted to Prof. Sanjay Singh

Submitted BySarin (PGP25090) Shivkumar (PGP25099) Shreyas (PGP25100) Soumen (PGP25101) Souvick (PGP25102)

Section B


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TABLE OF CONTENTS1. FDI in India ................................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1. What is foreign investment? ...................................................................................................................... 3 1.2. Entry Options for Foreign Investors...................................................................................................... 31.3. What is the difference between FDI and FII? .................................................................................... 3 1.4. Different TYPES ofFDI in India: ............................................................................................................... 4 1.5. Current inflows for FDI inIndia ............................................................................................................... 4 1.6. Country contribution List of FDI in India............................................................................................ 4 2. Relationship of Foreign Investment with Macro EconomicFactors............................................. 5 2.1. Foreign investment and GDP of india ................................................................................................... 5 2.2. FDI and Indian Currency .............................................................................................................................. 5 2.3. Foreign investment and employment growth ................................................................................. 5 2.4. FDI and INFLATION (WPI) ........................................................................................................................... 52.5. Foreign Investment And IIP ...............................................

........................................................................ 5 3. Time Series Analysis of Foreign investment and FDI in India ......................

................................... 6 4. Political footprints on FDI in India ..

................................................................................

................................ 6 5. How does government attracts and monitorsFDI? ............................................................................... 7 6. What determines the FDI in the economy? ................................................................................................ 8 7. Annexure.................................................................................................................................................................... 10


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1. FDI IN INDIA1.1. WHAT IS FOREIGN INVESTMENT? Any investment flowing from one country to another country is foreign investment. The management of a business enterprise in aforeign country is foreign investment. Indian Government classifies foreign investment in the following form: Foreign direct investment (FDI) Foreign institutional investment (FII) Non-resident Indian (NRI) investment 1.2. ENTRY OPTIONS FORFOREIGN INVESTORS A foreign company planning to set up business operations in India has the following options: Incorporate a company under the Companies Act, 1956 through: Joint Venture or Wholly owned Subsidiary Foreign equity in such Indian companies can be up to 100% depending on the requirements of the investor, subject to equity caps in respect of the sector/area of activities under the FDIpolicy. Enter as a Foreign Company through: o Liaison Office/Representative Office o Project Office o Branch Office Such offices can undertake activities permitted under the Foreign Exchange Management Regulations, 2000 (Establishment in India of branch or office of other place of business).

1.3. WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FDI AND FII? Foreign direct investment (FDI)is defined as "investment made to acquire lasting interest in enterprises operating outside of the economy of the investor."The FDI relationship consists of aparent enterprise and a foreign affiliate which together form a Multinational corporation (MNC). In order to qualify as FDI the investment must afford the parent enterprise control over its foreign affiliate. The UN defines control in thiscase as owning 10% or more of the ordinary shares or voting power of an incorporated firm or its equivalent for an unincorporated firm; lower ownership shares a

re known as


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portfolio investment. The definition of FDI originally meant that the investingcorporation gained a significant number of shares (10 percent or more) of the new venture. In recent years, however, companies have been able to make a foreigndirect investment that is actually long-term management control as opposed to direct investment in buildings and equipment. FDI growth has been a key factor inthe international nature of business that many are familiar with in the 21st century. This growth has been facilitated by changes in regulations both in the originating country and in the country where the new installation is to be built. FIIgenerally means portfolio investment by foreign institutions in a market whichis not their home country. These institutions are generally Mutual Funds, Investment Companies, Pension Funds, and Insurance Houses. Their investments are in the stock market whereas FDI is generally a long term commitment to a particular company in a sector in terms of equity investment by some foreign entity. FII funding is a paramount maker of stock markets and there selling or buying moves thestock in a day. FDI have long term commitment and hence we see flight of capital in terms of FII outflows but not generally in FDIs. 1.4. DIFFERENT TYPES OF FDI IN INDIA: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is permitted in India as under the following form: Financial collaborations Joint ventures and technical collaborations Capital markets via Euro issues Private placements or preferential allotments 1.5. CURRENT INFLOWS FOR FDI IN INDIA CUMULATIVE FDI EQUITY INFLOWS CumulativeFDI inflows (From April 2000 to March 2009) FDI inflows during 2009-10 (From April to Sep 74378 15312 2009) Cumulative amount of FDI Inflows (Up to Sep 467,504105152 2009) SOURCE: DIPP, Federal Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Governmentof India 1.6. COUNTRY CONTRIBUTION LIST OF FDI IN INDIA The major countries cont

ributing to the FDI inflow in India are Mauritius, USA, UK, Singapore etc. Mauritius is the largest contributor in the cumulative FDI flow during the period of2000-2009. For detailed break up please refer to section `C' of the Annexure. Rs Crores 393,126 US$ Million 89,840


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2. RELATIONSHIP OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT WITH MACRO ECONOMIC FACTORS2.1. FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND GDP OF INDIA Foreign investment shows a strong correlation (polynomial) with GDP in the last decade (1998-2008). The R2 value for the same is 0.881. Please refer to section À.1' of the Annexure for detailed data. FDI shows a strong linear correlation with the GDP of India. R2 value of 0.904 shows the strength of the correlation between the two parameters. For detailed dataanalysis, please refer to the section À.2' of Annexure. 2.2. FDI AND INDIAN CURRENCY A trend analysis of the FDI inflows to India and the exchange rates prevailing in the financial year 2008-09 shows a trend which doesn't depict a very strong correlation between the two chosen parameters. The best and strongest fit function for the trend was given by the 6-degree polynomial function with a R^2 value of 0.461. The exchange rate taken is taken with respect to US dollar. Please refer to section À.3' of Annexure for further details. 2.3. FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH The R^2 value is 0.174 for the 5-degree polynomial correlation between foreign investment in India and employment. FDI shows a 4-degree polynomialcorrelation with employment with an R^2 value of 0.264. For detailed data analysis, please refer to section À.4' of the Annexure. 2.4. FDI AND INFLATION (WPI) Thecorrelation derived between Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and FDI based on the monthly data available for the financial year 2008-09 shows a trend which is not as strong as seen in the previous sections. The R^2 value for the correlation between the two parameters is only 0.075. Please refer to section À.5' of the Annexurefor further reference.

2.5. FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND IIP The correlation derived between Foreign Investme

nt and Index for Industrial Production (IIP) shows strong relationship with R^2value of 0.91 for a linear correlation. The R^2 value is 0.95 for a 2-degree polynomial correlation of FDI with IIP which again shows a very strong relationship. Please refer to section À.6' of the Annexure for further reference.


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3. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND FDI IN INDIAThe best fit equation derived from the time series analysis of foreign investment in India is given by the following 2-degree polynomial equation: y = 355.5x2 -1E+06x + 1E+09 Where, x represents time (year) and y represents the foreign investment made in US $millions The R2 value obtained for the above equation is 0.945. The best fit equation derived from the time series analysis of FDI in Indiais given by the following 3-degree polynomial equation: y = 61.01x3 - 36592x2 +7E+08x - 5E+11 Where, x represents time (year) and y represents FDI in US $millions. The R2 value obtained for the above equation is 0.870. For details and graphs corresponding to the analysis please refer to the section `A.7' of Annexure.

4. POLITICAL FOOTPRINTS ON FDI IN INDIAYear 1991 Political Impact on FDI in India

1993-94 1995-96 1996-97

1997

1998 1998-99

BJP: We will make our economy truly Swadeshi by promoting native initiatives". Congress: "Foreign investment will not be at the cost of self-reliance". The government realized the importance of FDI. The FDI Mindset sets into the Government but opposition were critical of FDI and the Government

s acceptance to IMF condit

ionality. United Front Government: Increase in understanding towards Foreign Investment. Foreign Investment Promotion Council Setup. The first ever guidelines were announced for consideration of foreign direct investment proposals by the FIPB, which were not covered under the automatic route. The list of industries eligible for automatic approval of up to 51 per cent foreign equity was expanded. When there was a decline in FDI the government had to take greater technical measures in terms of liberalizing investment norms in bring in FDI. BJP admitted inits manifesto that the country cannot do without FDI, because besides capital stocks it brings with it technology, new market practices and most importantly employment. However BJP clarified that FDI will be encouraged in core areas so that it usefully supplements the national efforts and it discouraged FDI in non


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1999

2004 2006

priority areas. When a second year of decline continued a Foreign Investment Implementation Authority (FIIA) was set up for providing a single point interface between foreign investors and the government machinery. FDI had become a non-electable issue as there was widespread acceptance of the topic among all the party lines "FDI will continue to be encouraged and actively sought, particularly in areas of infrastructure, high technology and exports and where local assets are created on a significant scale. The country needs and can easily absorb at least two to three times the present level of FDI inflows basis of CMP

5. HOW DOES GOVERNMENT ATTRACTS AND MONITORS FDI?Foreign Investment Promotion Board FIPB: This specially empowered Board in the office of the Prime Minister is the only agency dealing with matters relating toFDI as well as promoting investment into the country. It is chaired by SecretaryIndustry (Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion). It promotes FDI into India by undertaking investment promotion activities in India and abroad by facilitating investment in the country through international companies, nonresident Indians and other foreign investors. Foreign Investment Promotion Council FIPC: The Government has constituted a Foreign Investment Promotion Council (FIPC) underthe chairmanship of Chairman ICICI, to undertake vigorous investment promotionand marketing activities. The Presidents of the three apex business associations

such as ASSOCHAM, CII and FICCI will be members of the Council. Ministry of Industry personnel will be Member-Secretary. Foreign Investment Implementation Authority FIIA: Foreign Investment Implementation Authority (FIIA) has been set up by the government of India in order to encourage the implementation of the proposals for FDI in the country. By doing this, Foreign Investment Implementation Authority (FIIA) has given a major boost to the Indian economy. Role of Foreign Investment Implementation Authority (FIIA): To understand and solve the problems ofthe investors To understand and solve the problems of the approving authoritiesTo refer the cases that have not been resolved at the level of FIA to the agencies at the higher levels To start consultations with multiple agencies Investment Commission: The Investment commission of India is a three-member commission set up in the Ministry of Finance in December 2004 by the Government of India. Mr.Ratan Tata is Chairman and Mr. Deepak Parekh and Dr. Ashok Ganguly are members.

The Investment Commission has been set up to enhance and facilitate investmentin India. The Commission makes recommendations to the Government of India on policies and


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procedures to facilitate investment, recommends projects and investment proposals that should be fast tracked/mentored and promotes India as an investment destination

6. WHAT DETERMINES THE FDI IN THE ECONOMY?Growth of the economy: o The growth rate of the home economy is an important determinant of FDI into the country. Size of the economy: o The FDI flows also depend on the size of the home economy. Real exchange rate: o Any depreciation in the currency of India will make our country more favorable for foreign investments. Degree of openness of the economy: o Any FDI investment into a country dependsupon how `open' the economy is towards foreign trade (both imports and exports). Wehave captured the `openness' of the economy through the proxy variable, DO (Degreeof Openness) where it is given by DO = (Imports+Exports)/GDP

An open-market operation where the RBI decides to buy government bonds from thepublic will result in the expansion of the money supply. From the above graph, we can see that the increase in the money supply decreases the interest rate fromi1 to i2. The decrease in the interest rate increases the exchange rate (as the

demand for foreign currency > supply of foreign currency). As a result, the FDIincreases in the host country. Also, the decrease in the interest rate means the cost of capital decreases since national income identity suggests that an increase in domestic investment will positively impact on domestic output.(Y = C + I+ G + X M). Open-market operations are likely to do a better job in attractingmore flows of FDI than other type of monetary policy. The reason is because theyimpact on two determinants of FDI inflows - exchange rate and GDP.


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Incorporating all these factors as determinants of FDI, we get the following model: FDIt = a +b GDPt + c GDPt + d DOt+ e REERt+ ut Where, FDIt = Foreign Direct Investment in Period t GDPt = Gross Domestic Product in Period t GDPt = GDPt -GDPt-1 DOt = Degree of Openness in Period t and is equal to ratio of Sum of Exportsand Imports to GDPt REERt = Real Effective Exchange Rate in Period t ut = ErrorTerm

Using the time series data, we ran a multi-variate regression of the above equation to estimate the values of the coefficients and to check their significance levels. We obtained an adjusted R square value of .783 which shows that the modelexplains more than 70% of the data. FDIt = -83110 + .011 GDPt + .02 GDPt + 66970DOt+ 633.5 REERt Also, we note that all the coefficients are positive which isas expected and the t statistic values indicate that all coefficients are significant.


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7. ANNEXUREFDI, FI, GDP, WPI, Unemployment and Currency statistics are taken from RBI's Indian Statistics Handbook 2009 mentioned below http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx?head=Handbook%20of%20Sta tistics%20on%20Indian%20Economy A.1) Foreign investment in India and India's GDP:Year 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-2008 Foreign Investment (

000 US $ millions) 2.401 5.181 6.789 8.151 6.014 15.699 15.366 21.453 29.082 34.36 GDP (

00000 In Rs Crore) 17.86525 19.25017 20.97726 22.61415 25.38171 28.77706 23.82068 27.46928 43.03654 50.234

A.2) FDI in India and India's GDP:Year 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 FDI (

000 US $ millions)2.462 2.155 4.029 6.13 5.035 4.322 GDP (

00000 In Rs Crore) 17.86525 19.25017 20.97726 22.61415 25.38171 28.77706


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2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-2008

6.051 8.961 22.07 34.36

23.82068 27.46928 43.04 47.234

A.3) Foreign Investment and Indian CurrencyMonth - Year RBI REFERENCE RATE WITH RESPECT TO USD Sep-08 45.5635 Oct-08 48.6555 Nov-08 48.9994 Dec-08 48.6345 Jan-09 48.8338 Feb-09 49.2611 Mar-09 51.2287 Apr-09 50.0619 May-09 48.5330 Jun-09 47.7714 Jul-09 48.4783 Aug-09 48.5348 Sep-09 49.4697 FDI (

00 in US $ Million) 25.62 14.97 10.83 13.62 27.33 14.88 19.56 23.3920.95 25.82 35.16 32.68 15.12


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A.4) Foreign Investment and Indian EmploymentYear 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 19992000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Public Sector 19.43 19.56 19.42 19.41 19.31 19.14 18.77 18.58 18.20 18.01 18.19 Private Sector 8.51 8.69 8.75 8.70 8.65 8.65 8.43 8.42 8.25 8.45 8.77 Total (Public + Private) in FDI in US FI in US millions $ millions millions37.43 39.14 40.09 40.37 41.34 42.00 41.17 41.39 40.46 39.35 41.47 2144 2821 35572462 2155 4029 6130 5035 4322 6051 8961 $

4892 6133 5385 2401 5181 6789 8151 6014 15699 15366 21453


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A.5) Foreign Investment and Wholesale Price IndexMonth -Year Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Wholesale Price Index 241.5 239 234.2 229.7 228.9 227.6 228.2 231.5 234.3 FDI ('00 US $Millions) 25.62 14.97 10.83 13.62 27.33 14.88 19.56 23.39 20.95


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Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09

235 238.4 240.8 242.7

25.82 35.16 32.68 15.12

WPI figures from http://www.eaindustry.nic.in/asp2/list_d.asp FDI inflows figures from http://dipp.nic.in/fdi_statistics/india_FDI_September2009.pdf

A.6) Foreign Investment and Index for Industrial Production (IIP)Annual Average IIP Basic Year Goods 1995-96 121.4 1996-97 125.0 1997-98 133.6 1998-99 135.8 1999-00 143.3 2000-01 148.6 2001-02 152.5 2002-03 159.9 2003-04 168.6 2004-05 177.9 2005-06 189.8 2006-07 209.3 2007-08 223.9 (Apr-Mar) Indices Capital Intermediate Goods Goods 115.0 125.7 128.2 135.9 135.6 146.8 152.7 155.8 163.3 169.5 166.2 177.4 160.6 180.1 177.4 187.1 201.5 199.0 229.6 211.1 265.8 216.4314.2 242.4 370.8 264.1 Non Durables 122.1 130.2 136.5 138.1 142.5 150.8 157.0175.9 186.1 206.2 228.8 252.6 274.2 General Index 123.3 130.8 139.5 145.2 154.9162.6 167.0 176.6 189.0 204.8 221.5 247.1 268.0

Total 126.5 134.3 141.7 144.8 153.0 165.2 175.1 187.5 200.9 224.4 251.4 276.8 293.6

Durables 146.2 152.9 164.9 174.1 198.7 227.6 253.7 237.8 265.4 303.5 349.9 382.0378.0

IIP data flows from http://mospi.nic.in/iip_table4.htm


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Year 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

FDI in US $ millions 2144 2821 3557 2462 2155 4029 6130 5035 4322 6051 8961 22826 34362

Foreign Investment US $ millions 4892 6133 5385 2401 5181 6789 8151 6014 15699 15366 21453 29082 34360

FDI and FI figures are taken from RBI website mentioned below http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx?head=Handbook%20of%20Sta tistics%20on%20Indian%20Economy


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A.7) Time series analysis of foreign investment in IndiaYear 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Foreign Investment 4892 6133 5385 2401 5181 6789 8151 6014 15699 15366 21453 29082


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Time series analysis for foreign investment in IndiaYear 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 FDI (in US $ millions) 2144 2821 3557 2462 2155 4029 61305035 4322 6051 8961 22079

Time series analysis of FDI in India B) Sector wise FDI Inflows:Ranks Sector 2006-07 (April-March) 2007-08 (AprilMarch) 2008-09 (April-March) 2009-10 (April- Sept. `09) Cumulative Inflows (April '00 to Sept. `09) 1. SERVICES SECTOR (financial & nonfinancial) 2. COMPUTER SOFTWARE & HARDWARE TELECOMMUNI 11,786(2,614) 2,155 5,623 (1,410) 5,103 7,329 (1,677) 11,727 2,107 (434) 9,815 41,603(9,388) 38,182 9% 9% 21,047 (4,664) 26,589 (6,615) 28,411 (6,116) 12,782 (2,627)97,235 (21,876) % age to total Inflows (In terms of rupees) 22 %

3.


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CATIONS (radio paging, cellular mobile, basic telephone services) 4. HOUSING & REAL ESTATE

(478)

(1,261)

(2,558)

(2,010)

(8,386)

2,121 (467)

8,749 (2,179) 6,989 (1,743)

12,621 (2,801) 8,792 (2,028)

9,193 (1,894) 4,814 (991)

32,975 (7,407) 26,991 (6,182)

7%

5.

CONSTRUCTIO N ACTIVITIES (including roads & highways)

4,424 (985)

6%

6. 7. 8.

POWER AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY METALLURGIC AL INDUSTRIES PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS CEHMICALS (other than fertilizers)

713 (157) 1,254 (276) 7,866 (173) 401 (89) 930 (205)

3,875 (967) 2,697 (675) 4,686 (1,177) 5,729 (1,427) 920 (229)

4,382 (985) 5,212 (1,152) 4,157 (961) 1,931 (412) 3,427 (749)

5,805 (1,197) 4,029 (833) 1,273 (263) 1,019 (205) 617 (127)

19,816 (4,387) 19,096 (4,222) 12,778 (2,987) 11,196 (2,598) 10,185 (2,261)

4% 4% 3%

9.

3%

10.

2%

C) Country wise break up of FDI inflow:Top ten investing (FDI Equity) countries (In Rs. Crore)


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Rank s

Country

2006-07 (AprilMarch)



2009-10 (AprilSept. `09)

Cumulative Inflows (April `00 to Sept. `09) 193,034 (43,385) 39,615 (8,998) 33,951 (7,579) 24,268 (5,508) 18,614 (4,161)

%age to total Inflows (in terms of rupees) 44 % 9% 8% 5% 4%

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

MAURITIUS SINGAPORE U.S.A. U.K. NETHERLANDS

28,759 (6,363) 2,662 (578) 3,861 (856) 8,389 (1,878) 2,905 (644)

44,483 (11,096) 12,319 (3,073) 4,377 (1,089) 4,690 (1,176) 2,780 (695)

50,794 (11,208) 15,727 (3,454) 8,002 (1,802) 3,840 (864) 3,922 (883)

31,761 (6,520) 5,763 (1,187) 5,991 (1,244) 1,364 (282) 2,761 (571)


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6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

JAPAN CYPRUS GERMANY FRANCE U.A.E.

382 3,336 (85) 266 (58) 540 (120) 528 (117) 1,174 (260) 70,630 (15,726) (815) 3,385 (834) 2,075 (514) 583 (145) 1,039 (258) 98,664 (24,579)

1,889 (405) 5,983 (1,287) 2,750 (629) 2,098 (467) 1,133 (257) 122,919 (27,329)

3,857 (793) 3,871 (794) 1,815 (375) 891 (185) 2,344 (484) 74,378 (15,312)

15,082 (3,324) 13,920 (3,067) 11,304 (2,548) 6,373 (1,412) 6,350 (1,404) 467,504(105,153)

3% 3% 3% 1% 1% -

TOTAL FDI INFLOWS

D) FDI Inflows month wise for 2009-2010SOURCE: DIPP, Federal Ministry Figures in bracket are in US$ million of Commerceand Industry, Government of India

FDI Inflows for 2009-2010 (In Rs. Crore) (In US$ mn)

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009

11,708 10,168 12,335 17,045 15,796 7,326 74,378 73,111 ( + ) 02 %

2,339 2,095 2,582 3,516 3,268 1,512 15,312 17,211 ( - ) 11 %

2009-10 (Up to September 2009) 2008-09 (Up to September 2008) %age growth over last year


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