Final Proposol

7/30/2019 Final Proposol

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Proposal on

Adaptation Agricultural Crop and Innovative Farming Practices in the Southwest Coastal

Region of Bangladesh

1. Introduction

The impact of Global Climate Change on agriculture has been studied extensively for various

crops at many different scales in various countries of the world. Available reports show that the

tropical and subtropical countries would be more vulnerable to the potential impacts of global

warming. Bangladesh is likely to be one of the worst hit countries of the globe, being an Asian as

well as a Third World country.

Bangladesh is facing serious threat due to various extreme climatic events (such as floods,

drought, cyclone, storm surges, salinity etc.) and will face adverse impacts of global climate

change. The current forecasting scenario by the IPCC indicates that Bangladesh is subject to

increase of severe and frequent floods, drought, water stress, cyclone, storm surges and salinity

intrusion, which are attributable to climate change. Any sea level rise due to global warming and

climate change will inundate large parts of the low lying coastal region of the country and

increase water logging affecting the agriculture, food security, livelihoods, human settlement,

health, energy supply and basic services of rural communities. The adverse impacts of climate

change will affect the resource bases, production systems, infrastructure, livelihood strategies of

the common people, particularly the poor and marginal groups and make them vulnerable in

future. Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries of the world and over 50% of

the population lives in poverty. Millions of the poor and marginal people depend mainly on

agriculture, natural resources and eco-systemic services. The possible climate change will affect

the agriculture, production systems, resources base and destabilize the ecosystems affecting the

poor and marginal groups of people. Thus the adverse impacts of climate change will limit

achieving the UN-MDGs in Bangladesh.

The variability of climate changes has become challenging issues to agriculture due to global

warming. Agricultural crops of Bangladesh are specially sensitized different variables of

climates such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, day-length etc and as well as different natural


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disaster like flood, drought, salinity and storm surges etc. Therefore, adaptation measures have to

be looked at for the sustainability of agriculture.

The Climate Change Cell now has some funds available for funding of demonstration projects or

field-testing of products in the area of adaptation agricultural crop and innovative farming

practices. According to the mandate given to the Climate Change Cell, project proposals need to

focus on the Southwest coastal region.

2. Background

The climate of Bangladesh is generally sub-tropical in the north to hot humid in the south.

Southwest monsoon influences the climate during June to October, and during the winter the

climate is controlled by the northeast monsoon from November to March. The summer is hot and

humid and the winter is mild. The country is vulnerable to many environmental hazards,

including frequent floods, droughts, cyclones, and storm surges that damage life, property, and

agricultural production.

It is believed that climate change would increase the disparities in cereal production between

developed and developing countries. The production in the developed world would benefit from

climate change, while that in developing nation would decline (Walker and Steffen, 1997). Farm-

level adaptation would be inadequate in reducing the disparities. It is also reported that even an

extensive farm-level adaptation in the agricultural sector would not entirely prevent such

negative effects. In general, the tropical and subtropical countries would be more vulnerable to

the potential impacts of global warming through effects on crops, soils, insects, weeds and

diseases. On the other hand, elevated carbon-di-oxide (CO,) concentrations will have beneficial

effects on crop production. Impacts of climate change would cause enhanced vulnerability to the

crop production systems in Bangladesh.

The GFDL model predicted about 17 per cent decline in overall rice production and as high as 61

per cent decline in wheat production compared to the baseline situation. The highest impact

would be on wheat followed by Aus variety. CCCM model predicted a significant, but much

reduced shortfall in food grain production.


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It was found that increase in 4C temperature would have severe impact on food grain

production, especially for wheat production. On the other hand, carbon-di-oxide fertilization

would facilitate food grain production. A rise in temperature cause significant decrease in

production, some 28 and 68 per cent for rice and wheat, respectively. On the other hand,

doubling of atmospheric concentration of CO, in combination with a similar rise in temperature

would result into an overall 20 per cent rise in rice production and 31 percent decline in wheat

production. It was found that Boro rice would enjoy good harvest under severe climate change

scenario.

In the winter months the coastal croplands suffer due to salinity related problems. In absence of

appreciable rainfall the soil in the coastal areas starts to desiccate, and because of capillary

actions salt comes up at the surface of the soil and accumulates at the root zones. Salinity

problem is often intensified when high spring tides inundate low-lying coastal areas, especially

when they are associated with cyclonic storm surges. Many of the crop varieties, especially those

of food grain varieties, are not salinity tolerant. As a result, a large area in the coastal districts is

virtually unsuitable for a number of crops, while the production of a few other crops is lesser

under saline conditions. Since salinity intrusion restricts cultivation of Boro and wheat, the

potential impact cannot be ascertained. However, the varieties that are grown with the given

conditions, about 0.13 Mt food grain is lost annually due to adverse impact of soil salinity.

Low-flow conditions in the rivers are often observed in the winter months (lean period) when

surface water irrigation becomes severely constrained. Under such conditions, the farmers

usually take necessary actions to ensure irrigation by exploiting groundwater resources. Low-

flow conditions do not cause direct vulnerability to crop production, but cause economic

hardship to the poor farmers. The situation is observed in the upland areas in the northwest

(Barind Tract) and in the lower Ganges floodplains.


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The Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock ensure preparation

implementation of their own work plan at field level. Full utilization of time is to ensure

determination of disaster loss and damage and planning of agricultural rehabilitation. In these,

various departments and agencies of the Government and NGO,s are involved following major

functions and activities are done:

Quantify the loss and damage of all assets and stores together with that of crops, poultry,fisheries, fish hatcheries, fishponds, trawlers and other structures of agricultural

rehabilitation.

Ensure availability of adequate supply of seeds, seedlings, fertilizers, agriculture Implementation inputs for agricultural rehabilitation in the affected areas and transport

them to the people.

3. Justification

The impact of Global Climate Change on agriculture has been studied extensively for various

crops at many different scales in various countries of the world. Lot of study on climate changes

issues have conducted by different organization and future impact scenarios has also been

developed. Different adaptation measures, technologies and strategies has already been

developed by different organizations and as well as by communities to adapt with the climate

changes. As the agriculture is the main sector of our economy, therefore it is very essential to

identify the suitable technologies or varieties of crops through field level testing and community

awareness. Through this study suitable and ideal technologies, adaptation measures, varieties of

crops will be identified and tested at field level which would give the hope and confidence to thefarmers in adaptation with theirs crops to the climate changes. Further dissemination of

developed and developing adaptive measures or technologies will be done through this study

which in need at this moment and this study will be the good start for the greater benefit of the

farmers community and as well as the country.


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4. Objectives

The main objective is to find out suitable adaptation measures that have the potentiality to help

the farmers to adapt with climate changes. However, the specific objectives of the project are:

To identify the available adaptation measures or technologies for agriculture to adapt toclimate change;

To identify suitable variety of crops that would be able to adapt with climate change, To demonstrate and test the available adaptation or technologies or crop varieties

through farmers participation;

To disseminate the information on available adaptation measures or technologies or cropvarieties to the farmers through awareness building.

Methodology

The flow diagram of the detail methodology for the proposed study is presented in Figure-1. The

study will be conducted with close consultation with relevant organizations mentioned in the

study flow diagram. The Satkhira district is selected for study area which is under coastal region.

The proposed research will explore how to adapt agricultural crop due to climate change in

future.

The action research team will begin with a literature review involving past published material on

climate change and adaptation agricultural crop. To assess and analysis the problems, study team

members will appraise the existing research findings and carry out a preliminary field survey in

the study area. The critical issues that would reduce crop agricultural potential in the coastal area

will be collated from the literature.

In a second step, an attempt will be made to understand the geo-physical environment of thestudy area. Physical observations will be matched with the findings of the literature survey,

which will lead to identification of field-testing sites. BARI and BRRI will cooperate to select

the field-testing sites for Rabi and Kharif crops respectively. Hydrological analysis would be

done to understand the extent and nature of the flood in the study area. The flood depth and

spatial distribution of rainfall will be examined during monsoon season. The extreme


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temperature, salinity and soil salinity will be observed for Rabi season. From these observations

and analyses the effects of climate change on the geophysical environment of the study area will

be identified. During this process the participation of the local stakeholders will be ensured.

Based on this discussion and analysis, future climate scenarios for crop adaptability will be

developed.

The climate scenarios will explain future adverse impacts on agriculture crops due to climate

change (salinity, extreme temperature, rainfall etc.). Based on the climate scenarios an attempts

will be made to quantify impacts of various aspects of climate change such as salinity, sea level

rise etc on agriculture consulting with experts and local community.

The Rabi season crops (such as potato or wheat) and Kharif-1 season crops (such as pulses or oil

seed) may be selected in consultation with BARI. The boro rice crop or transplanted aman rice

crop will be selected in consultation with BRRI. the suitable rice and non-rice crops will be

identified based on climate scenarios for field-testing.

After selecting the rice and non-rice crops, an experimental layout in the field will be designed.

In the selected field site, Participatory Community techniques such as PVA and CRA will be

applied in order to analyze the perceived climate change risks amongst the primary stakeholders.

Vulnerability of the farming system and those of the farmers will be analyzed, while solutions to

address such vulnerability to crop agriculture, in the context defined by the farmers themselves,

will be discussed and ascertained by interviewing agriculture extension Officials in the locality.

Grassroots courtyard sessions, informal workshops/FGDs, and national-level roundtable will be

organized in a bid to identify and assess adaptation measures, technologies and farmers

strategies.


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Figure-1: Methodology for demonstration and /or field testing of crops


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Once the ground research is completed, efforts will be made to apply selected adaptation

measure(s), primarily on selected rice cultivation and rabi crops. The field sensitivity of newly

developed, but not so disseminated variety of rice crop (i.e., BRRI 41 and BRRI 40) will be

tested in relation to increasing salinity on field condition in the selected locations in the study

area. Similar field sensitivity of selected rabi crops in saline conditions will be tested and

optimum condition for selected rabi crops cultivation in salinity threatened areas will be

established. A number of plots will be identified and their senility to salinity in the full

production cycle will be studied. Based on field analyses, the optimum production condition in

the field will be recorded.

An analytical tool CROPSUIT developed by CEGIS will be used to estimate the physical

suitability of land for different land use types or crops. CROPSUIT determines the physical

suitability of land based on land characteristics (LC) and land use requirement (LUR) suitability

matrix. The LUR information is already developed by CEGIS in the study of coastal land use

zoning (CEGIS, 2005) under SEMP. All LC data is regenerated from the soil map (Bangla

Nirdeshika Thana Map) produced by SRDI and converted into GIS Grid format. The

CROPSUIT model will be used to generate the suitability maps showing highly suitable,

suitable, moderately suitable and not suitable areas for different crops. It may also be used to

map the suitability under different sea level rise scenarios.

The results of the sensitivity tests and field optimization of adaptation measure(s) for alternative

crops will be shared amongst the farmers in the pilot study locations. The entire process of field

level adaptation will be documented for future reference and dissemination.

6. Outputs

The outputs of the study are as follows:

1. Selection of adaptive measures, technologies, or crops suitable for the study areaselected.

2. Field testing of adaptive crops or technologies, and dissemination.3. Documentation on process of field level adaptation for future reference and

dissemination.


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7. Logical Framework

Objectives Measurable Indicators Means of Verifications Important Assumption

Goal: Suitable adaptioninitiatives for the

agricultural crops due to

climate change

Monthly rainfall,temperature and

Humidity

Collecting date fromregional meteorological

office

Dialogue report

Project Reports

(Goal to Super goal)Changed agricultural

pattern

Change in government

policy

Climate change

Continuous practice

suitable crop

Purpose: Sustain the

agricultural crops.

Amount of crop, crop

quality and cost of

production

Interviewing of people

Interview of regional

agriculture officer

Market analysis

(Purpose to Goal)

Government initiatives

Local people perception

The role of NGO

Information utilization

Output: Selection of

adaptive measures and

testing adaptive crops

which is suitable for the

project area

Saline tolerant,

temperature tolerant crop

cultivation

Regular reports of staffs

Event records

Documents created under

the project

Visitors comments

(Outputs to Purpose)

Village politics

Cultural conflict

Emergency relief

Activities: Hydrological

analysis, Assessing

vulnerability on

agriculture, Community

consultation.

Inputs

Personnel salary

=1625380

Field cost

=177500

Materials, Printing cost

=124250

Field testing

=142000

Field monitoring =71000

Respective Donor

Agency

(Activity to Output)

Riverbank erosion

Heavy rainfall

Local conflict


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Total cost

=2196930

8. Time Schedule

Time2011 2012

J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Literature Review

Community Consultation and Impact Assessment

Identify Adaptation options

Field Testing

Training for Farmers

Performance Analysis

Stakeholder consultation

Strategy formulation


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9. Project Cost

It requires BDT 2196930.00 to carry out the proposed study. The detail of the cost is given in the

following table.

SL NO Description Person Rates Cost BDT1 Personnel

Agronomist 5 124250 621250

Climate Change Specialist (BUP) 1 121690 121690

Adaptation Specialist (BARC) 1 60850 60850

Water Resources Specialist 1 121690 121690

Crop Specialist (BRRI) 1 60850 60850

Adaptive Research Specialist (BRRI) 1 30450 30450

Adaptive Research Specialist (BARI) 1 91300 91300

Land use Specialist 1 91300 91300Junior RS/GIS specialist 4 53250 213000

Junior Climate/Hydrology/Land use specialist 6 35500 213000

Sub Total 1625380

2 Field Cost (Duty Travel)

TA /DA for field trip 106500

Vehicle and Fuel cost for field trip 71000


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Sub Total 177500

3 Materials, printing cost

Report production 28400

Other materials (maps, stationeries etc.) 28400

Sub Total 56800

4 Training & W/S

Training of stakeholders 35500

Local workshop 35500

National workshop 53250

Sub Total 124250

5 Field Testing

Field testing for rabi crops 71000

Field testing for kharif crops 71000

Sub Total 142000

6 Field monitoring 71000

Sub Total 71000

Total Project Cost (BDT) 2196930

10. Concluding Remarks

The global climate change is one of the most significant environmental issues of the present

world. The effects of global climate change are evident now, as we are experiencing through

irregular weather conditions. Agriculture is strongly interrelated with climatic factors.

Temperature, which is one of the main factors of climate, is closely associated with agricultural

production. In agriculture, rice production is affected by deviation in temperature. Climate

change will increase the temperature, which will bring changes in rice farming activities and

affect crops yields. Various studies indicate that a rise of 10 C to 20 C, in combination with

lower solar radiation, causes sterility in rice spikelet and high temperature was found to reduce

yields of HYVs of aus, aman and boro rice in all study locations and in all seasons in Bangladesh

It is expected that due to climate change, humidity, wind flow, and temperature in Bangladesh

will be changed. These three climatic mechanisms, in changing conditions, cause an increase in

insects, pests, diseases and microorganisms in agriculture, and accordingly, crop production will


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decrease. The production of potato, brinjal, ladie's finger, tomato, cauliflower, sugarcane,

groundnut, ginger, onion, garlic, banana, date, plum etc. will decrease. Increase of diseases, pests

and insects will also affect transportation and storage of different crops and vegetable. Climate

change will lead to extreme weather, which will increase the burning or destruction of crops.

Due to climate change, occurrence of tornadoes, cyclones and hailstorms will be greater than

before. It will hamper the total agriculture production. Bangladesh is an agro-economy based

developing country. There is no doubt that its agriculture will be badly affected by the climate

change. Loss in agriculture would increase many social problems, and force the import of food,

which will require spending of hard currency.

It is clearly evident that the agricultural production is facing various difficulties due to climate

change, so without the adaptation of agricultural crop and innovating farming practice the

sustainability of agriculture sector cant be imagine specially the southwest coastal region of

Bangladesh.


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Appendix