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Finansiering av næringseiendom i bank og kapitalmarkedet Olav T. Løvstad, Thomas Fjeld, Ole Einar Stokstad
DNB representerer en betydelig kompetansebredde og dekker alle områder innen eiendom
DNB Markets
DNB Næringsmegling
DNB Bank
DNB Liv/
Næringseiendom
ECM, M&A,
strategisk
rådgivning &
prosjekt-
finansiering
Obligasjoner
Renter og valuta
Markedsanalyser
Transaksjoner
Utleie
Analyse &
verdivurdering
Finansiering &
rådgivning
Sparing & pensjon
Cash Mngmt.
Garanti
Eier
Forvalter
Långiver
Eiendomsfond
DNB Eiendom
Prosjektmegling
Rådgivning
Rekordmange transaksjoner i 2017. Fortsatt høy aktivitet i 2018!
Årlig volum i transaksjonsmarkedet målt i antall og verdi (NOK mrd.)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Transaksjonsvolum (NOK.mrd) Prognose Antall (h.akse)
Utvikling i yielder, lånekostnader og yieldgap for ulike kontorsegment i Oslo
Kontor i Oslo: Yieldbunnen nådd, men fortsatt kjøperdrevet marked
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2022
Lånekost solid aktør m. 25 % flytende rente og 75 % m. 5-års swap
Normalisert lånekostnad. Sum 5-års lån m. 5-år swap
Normal yield (5 år) klyngene langs Ring 3 (+/- 30 bp)
Yield 10 års leiekontrakt langs Ring 3 (+/- 25 bp)
Prime yield kontor (7 års leiekontrakt)
Bankene krever økt egenkapital-andel som følge av økende eiendomspriser
Kilde: Union bankundersøkelse Q3
Kredittmarginene øker i obligasjonsmarkedet
Kilde: DNB Markets / Union bankundersøkelse Q3
Indikative spreader 5 år - eiendomsobligasjoner Marginutvikling Union Bankundersøkelse
En endring i porteføljen de siste 3-4 årene
Kilde: DNB Fact Book
Reduksjon i utlån til næringseiendom… ..parallelt med vesentlig økning i boligprosjekter
29
44,5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q 180
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 15Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 16Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 17Q1 18Q2 18
186
216
Etter en periode med høy endringstakt rundt bankens kapitalkrav, forventer vi mer stabilitet fremover
• Særnorske reglene står for fall
• Likevel forventes ikke redusert
kapitalkrav
• Innføring av Basel IV – effekt fra 2022
• Dette kan føre til at andre nordiske banker
må holde litt mer kapital bak lavrisikolån
• Dette kan igjen føre til at bankene må øke
prisen
DNB Liv fortsatt aktive – men selektive
Kilde: NE Nyheter
Alternativene er flere enn noen gang
Tilpasninger til nytt regulatorisk rammeverk har gitt flere kilder
Obligasjonsfinansiering
• Ole Einar Stokstad,
Head of Credit Research, DNB Markets
Real Estate is a dominant industry Outstanding volumes, non-financial corporate bond markets
Sources: Stamdata, DNB Markets 1
1
Oil and gas E&P Oil and gas services ShippingReal Estate, IG Real Estate, HY IndustryTelecom/IT Transportation FinanceConsumer Services Utilities SeafoodOther
Oil and gas E&P Oil and gas services ShippingReal Estate, IG Real Estate, HY IndustryTelecom/IT Transportation FinanceConsumer Services Utilities SeafoodOther
Nordics (NOK889bn) Norway (NOK446bn)
Bond financing is getting more expensive
Source: DNB Næringsmegling, DNB Markets
• Interest rates are rising
• Expecting that yields will rise
• There has been massive
bond issuance within the
industry
• Regulatory tightening
hitting real estate
financing
• Project finance less attractive
for life insurers
• Shorter durations
• A new financial instrument
(Bank tier 3) will compete
for investor attention and
money with higher ratings
and richer spreads
Nordic bond market – Issuance and maturities Real estate companies
Sources: Stamdata, DNB Markets 1
3
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
202320222021202020192018YTD
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
Norway Sweden Finland Denmark Maturities
NOKbn
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
sep.07 sep.08 sep.09 sep.10 sep.11 sep.12 sep.13 sep.14 sep.15 sep.16 sep.17 sep.18
3y 5y 10y
Risk to see continued increase in longer-term interest rates
Source: Bloomberg 1
4
NOK swap rate (%)
• Rising wage and inflation
pressures
• Increasing global bond
supply (sovereigns)
• Central banks reversing
monetary policies
Credit conditions remain favourable for now, with tight credit spreads
Sources: ICE Indices, DNB Markets 1
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
ma
r.13
ma
i.1
3
jul.13
sep.1
3
no
v.1
3
jan.1
4
ma
r.14
ma
i.1
4
jul.14
sep.1
4
no
v.1
4
jan.1
5
ma
r.15
ma
i.1
5
jul.15
sep.1
5
no
v.1
5
jan.1
6
ma
r.16
ma
i.1
6
jul.16
sep.1
6
no
v.1
6
jan.1
7
ma
r.17
ma
i.1
7
jul.17
sep.1
7
no
v.1
7
jan.1
8
ma
r.18
ma
i.1
8
jul.18
sep.1
8
EUR industrials A / BBB spread, over 3m NIBOR NOK industrials A / BBB spread, over 3m NIBOR
Spreads over 3m NIBOR (bp)
Strong supply side and a new competitor for financing is emerging
Source: DNB Markets 1
6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
aug.13 aug.14 aug.15 aug.16 aug.17 aug.18
Benchmark covered bonds Non-rated municipalities
Senior unsecured bank Utilities
Non-financial corporates
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
jul.13 jul.14 jul.15 jul.16 jul.17 jul.18
IG corp less seniors bank
Starting to see some weakening also in real estate spreads
Source: DNB Markets 1
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
jul.11 jul.12 jul.13 jul.14 jul.15 jul.16 jul.17 jul.18
Entra less covered
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap less covered
0
50
100
150
200
EntraNPROOBOS bblOlav Thon (unsecured)Olav Thon (w/1st pri pledge)Steen & Strøm ASA (Unsecured)
Source: Bloomberg
Transaksjoner og rådgiving
• Thomas Fjeld,
Head of Real Estate, IBD, DNB Markets
Bond spreads widening on the back of increasing investor concern over inflated real estate values
68 bps
75 bps
75 bps
70 bps
69 bps
72 bps
78 bps
90 bps
120 bps
160 bps
30 bps
2 bps
130 bps
7 bps
-6 bps
8 bps
Bank survey
13 bps
0 bps
11 bps
12 bps
10 bps
154 bps
75 bps
75 bps
77 bps
78 bps
80 bps
85 bps
90 bps
120 bps
mar-18 sep-18
208 bps
79 bps
105 bps
146 bps
223 bps
241 bps
241 bps
261 bps
261 bps
289 bps
Grand Hotel
Bank survey
20 bps Plaza Hotel 125 bps
Haakon VII gate 2
Castellar Prosjekt 24
LCN Axs Midco NO
Castellar Prosjekt 22
Danefjellveien 20
Sortland Eiendomsinvest 2
Flesland Kontorinvest
At issuance / mar-18 sep-18
IG corporate issuers (5Y tenor) SPV issuers (5-7Y tenor)
Prime yield still unaffected by higher funding cost
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2008
2007
2006
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
NOK 5yr swap Oslo prime yield NOK 10yr swap Oslo avg. yield
~190bps ~140bps
Greater demand for shorter and more flexible lease contracts will affect financing possibilities
Development in the commercial real estate market WAULT
Digitalisation and globalisation
Harder to sign long lease contracts with tenants
Wider spread in pricing
Harder to finance SPVs
1
2
3
Greater demand for shorter and more flexible lease contracts
7.0
6.6
3.8
Material correlation
2016 2018
«If a bond issuer only owns one asset and that asset
serves as collateral to the benefit of bond holders, it
must be concluded that there is "material positive
correlation" between the credit quality of the issuer and
the value of the collateral»
• Loans with pledge in commercial real estate still have attractive
risk/reward characteristics
• However, new capital requirements make SPV loans with tenor
above 5 years complicated
• Loans with shorter tenor are still attractive
• Especially relevant for syndicates, which constitute c.25% of the
market and which are frequent SPV debt issuers