Florida ICSC 2013 Presentation

7/27/2019 Florida ICSC 2013 Presentation

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OverviewofFlorida:

EconomicsGaryRalstonCBCSaundersRalstonDantzlerRealty

LendingBrianBaileyFederalReserveBankofAtlanta

SalesandLeasingSuzanneMulVeePPR/CoStar


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Gary Ralston

directors ofCommercialNet LeaseRealty, Inc. (NYSE:NNN) theindustry leader insingle-tenant corporatenet-leased realestate.DuringthatGmeheguided thecompany'sgrowthfromlessthan$15million inrealestate

assetstoover$1.5billion.

aryholdstheCerGfiedCommercialInvestmentMember(CCIM),SocietyofIndustrialandOfficeRealtors(SIOR),SpecialistinRealEstateSecuriGes(SRS),CerGfiedPropertyManager(CPM),CounselorofRealEstate(CRE)and

CerGfied Leasing Specialist (CLS) designaGons and is also a Florida licensed real estate broker and cerGfied

buildingcontractor.

aryisaseniorinstructorfortheCCIMInsGtuteandamemberoftheboardofdirectorsoftheCCIMInsGtuteand

CCIMTechnologies,Inc.HeisafullmemberoftheUrbanLandInsGtute(ULI),amemberoftheInternaGonal

CouncilofShoppingCenters(ICSC)andaninstructorforICSCREConAcademy.

aryholdsaMastersinRealEstateandConstrucGonManagementfromtheUniversityofDenver.In2007hewas

namedanadjunctfacultymemberattheUniversityofDenver,in2011hewasnamedanadjunctfacultymemberatFloridaSouthernCollegeandin2013arywasnamedanadjunctfacultymemberattheUniversityofFlorida.

Heistheco-chairoftheFloridaSouthernCollegerealestateconference.

arywasinductedasaHoytFellow(www.hoyt.org)in2001.HeisamemberoftheRegionalEconomic

InformaGonNetworkoftheJacksonvilleBranchoftheFederalReserveBankofAtlanta.aryisrecognizedasthe

secondmostaccreditedrealestateprofessionalintheNaGon.

GaryM.Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, SRS, CPM,CRE, CLS, is amanagingpartner of Coldwell BankerCommercialSaundersRalstonDantzlerRealty,LLCthepremiercommercialservicesproviderin

CentralFlorida(PolkCounty).Heisarecognizedsubjectma`erexpertonretailandcommercialproperGes.Healso serves asaprincipal ofa retailbuild-to-suit developmentand investment

company.

Fromtheearly1990sthrough2004arywasthepresidentandamemberoftheboardof

aryRalston


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Gary Ralston

PriortojoiningtheFederalReserveBankofAtlanta,BrianwasemployedbytheprivateequityfirmTavistockroupasSeniorFinanceandAcquisiGonsManagerinrealestate.BeforejoiningTavistock,

BrianwastheDirectorofRealEstateFinanceforFlaglerDevelopmentroup,Floridaslargest

commercialrealestatedeveloper.

BriansexperienceincludesworkingforErnst&YoungLLP,wherehewasanexecuGve.Brianmanaged

mulGpleengagementsforbothprivateandpublicsectorclients.Hisadvisoryexperienceincludesasset

acquisiGon/disposiGon,transacGonduediligence,valuaGon,feasibilityandmarketstudies,loandue

diligence,reviewingleasesandcashflowmodeling.PriortojoiningE&Y,BrianfoundedandoperatedanindustrialdevelopmentcompanythatspecializedintheacquisiGon,development,and

refurbishmentofindustrialandofficeproperGes.Priortothat,Briangothisstartincommercialrealestateasalocalmarketappraiser.

AerreceivingaBachelorofArtsinBusinessAdministraGonfromMercerUniversity,Brianearnedan

MBAdegreewithconcentraGonsinRealEstateandFinancefromtheUniversityofFlorida.Healso

a`ainedtheCCIMdesignaGon.

BrianBaileyistheSeniorFinancialPolicyAnalystintheSupervisionandRegulaGonDivisionoftheFederalReserveBankofAtlanta.BrianisarecognizedFederal

ReserveSystemexpertresponsibleforthoughtleadershipincommercialrealestate

andprovidingguidanceonvaluaGonissues.Brianhasextensiveexperiencewith

commercialrealestatevaluaGon,transacGon,development,stresstesGngand

financialissues.Briansexperiencespansboththepublicandprivatesectors.

BrianBailey


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Gary Ralston

SincejoiningPPR,shehaswri`enahandfulofwhitepapersandnumerousarGclesforpublicaGons,includingCommercialInvestmentRealEstate,MBANewslink,CMBSWorld,andNCREIFsRealEstate

PerformanceReport.SheisoencitedinindustrynewsjournalsaswellasnaGonalmedia,including

theWallStreetJournal,NewYorkTimes,CNBC,NPR,andMSNBC,foropinionsonrealestateinvestmentperformance.

BeforejoiningPPR,sheanalyzedrealestateinvestmentopportuniGesforalocalbrokeragefirm,

consultedoncommercialrealestatepurchases,andworkedasacreditanalystincommercialbanksin

SanDiegoandreaterBoston.

MulveeearnedaB.A.cumlaudeinFinancialandManagerialEconomicsfromtheUniversityofNew

Hampshire,whereshewasrecognizedasoneoftheUniversityspresGgiousPresidenGalScholars.She

holdstheCFAdesignaGonandisamemberofICSC(ElectedMemberofNorthAmericanResearchCouncil),CREFinanceCouncil(ResearchCommi`ee),NAIOP(NaGonalDirectorsMeeGngResearch

Council),BostonSecurityAnalystsSociety,andUrbanLandInsGtute.

SuzanneMulvee,CFA,designsstrategiesforinvesGngacrosstheU.S.apartment,office,retail,andwarehousepropertymarkets.SheworkstocustomizePPRscore

researchtosuitspecificinvestmentcriteriaandhelpsclientstocommunicate

porolioperformanceandforward-lookingstrategiestostakeholders.Mulvee

specializesinresearchandforecasGngoftheperformanceofretailassetsacrossthe

UnitedStates.

SuzanneMulvee


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OverviewofFloridaEconomics

aryM.Ralston,CCIM,SIOR,CPM,CRE,CLS

ColdwellBankerCommercialSaundersRalstonDantzlerRealtyary@SRDcommercial.com


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Real estate is space for people.

Space for people to:live inwork inshop in, andstore things in.

Demand for retail real estate is peopleand money (household income).


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CensusFacts

h"p://quickfacts.census.gov

Florida USA

Population, 2012 estimate 19,317,568 313,914,040

Annualized Population Growth 158,324 1,588,698Annualized Population Growth (4/2010 - 7/2013) 0.83% 0.52%

Persons under 5 years, percent, 2012 5.5% 6.4%


Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2012 18.2% 13.7%

Black or African American alone, percent, 2012 16.6% 13.1%

Asian alone, percent, 2012 2.7% 5.1%

Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2012 23.2% 16.9%

Foreign born persons, percent, 2007-2011 19.2% 12.8%

Language other than English spoken at home 27.0% 20.3%

High school graduate or higher, % > age 25+, 2007-2011 85.5% 85.4%

Bachelor's degree or higher, % > age 25+, 2007-2011 26.0% 28.2%

Mean travel time to work (minutes), 2007-2011 25.7 25.4


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CensusFacts


Florida USA















9/39h"p://www.bebr.ufl.edu/


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CensusFacts


Florida USA















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CensusFacts


Florida USA















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CensusFacts


Florida USA















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CensusFacts


Florida USA















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CensusFacts


Florida USA















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CensusFacts


Florida USA















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HouseholdFacts


Florida USA

Living in same house 1 year & over, percent, 2007-2011 83.5% 84.6%

Housing units, 2011 9,026,965 132,312,404

Homeownership rate, 2007-2011 69.0% 66.1%

Housing units in multi-unit structures, percent, 2007-2011 29.9% 25.9%

Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2007-2011 $188,600 $186,200

Households, 2007-2011 7,140,096 114,761,359

Persons per household, 2007-2011 2.56 2.60

Housing Units/Household Ratio 1.26 1.15

Building permits, 2012 64,810 829,658

Per capita income past 12 months (2011 dollars), 2007-2011 $26,733 $27,915

Median household income, 2007-2011 $47,827 $52,762

Retail sales, 2007 ($1000) 262,341,127 3,917,663,456

Retail sales per capita, 2007 $14,353 $12,990

Accommodation and food services sales, 2007 ($1000) 41,922,059 613,795,732


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HouseholdFacts


Florida USA


Housing units, 2011 9,026,965 132,312,404




Households, 2007-2011 7,140,096 114,761,359






Retail sales, 2007 ($1000) 262,341,127 3,917,663,456




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HouseholdFacts


Florida USA


Housing units, 2011 9,026,965 132,312,404




Households, 2007-2011 7,140,096 114,761,359






Retail sales, 2007 ($1000) 262,341,127 3,917,663,456




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HouseholdFacts


Florida USA


Housing units, 2011 9,026,965 132,312,404




Households, 2007-2011 7,140,096 114,761,359






Retail sales, 2007 ($1000) 262,341,127 3,917,663,456




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HouseholdFacts


Florida USA


Housing units, 2011 9,026,965 132,312,404




Households, 2007-2011 7,140,096 114,761,359






Retail sales, 2007 ($1000) 262,341,127 3,917,663,456




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HouseholdFacts


Florida USA


Housing units, 2011 9,026,965 132,312,404




Households, 2007-2011 7,140,096 114,761,359






Retail sales, 2007 ($1000) 262,341,127 3,917,663,456




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h`p://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html


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FloridaEmployment

h"p://www.bls.gov/

Jun-13 12monthchange

CivilianLaborForce 9,416,400

Employment 8,751,400

Unemployment 665,100

UnemploymentRate 7.1%

TotalNonfarm 7,521,900 1.7%MiningandLogging 5,700 0.0%

ConstrucGon 351,900 3.6%

Manufacturing 313,200 -1.0%

Trade,TransportaGon,andUGliGes 1,577,200 2.6%

InformaGon 135,300 1.3%

FinancialAcGviGes 506,100 1.6%

Professional&BusinessServices 1,088,400 2.0%

EducaGon&HealthServices 1,132,000 2.1%

Leisure&Hospitality 1,019,500 2.3%

OtherServices 315,300 0.4%

overnment 1,077,300 -0.1%


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FloridaEmployment

h"p://www.bls.gov/
















overnment 1,077,300 -0.1%

l d f l


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Mar2007

8,064,700

FloridaNonfarmEmployment

Dec2009

7,142,100

h"p://www.bls.gov/

Jun2013

7,521,900

l id l


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FloridaEmployment

h"p://www.bls.gov/
















overnment 1,077,300 -0.1%

l id l


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FloridaEmployment

h"p://www.bls.gov/
















overnment 1,077,300 -0.1%

Fl id E l


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FloridaEmployment

h"p://www.bls.gov/
















overnment 1,077,300 -0.1%

Fl id B h k USA


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Florida USA

Jun-13 Jul-13

CivilianLaborForce 9,416,400 155,798,000

Employment 8,751,400 144,285,000

Unemployment 665,100 11,514,000

UnemploymentRate 7.1% 7.4%

%Nonfarm %Nonfarm

TotalNonfarm 7,521,900 136,038,000MiningandLogging 5,700 0.08% 875,000 0.64%

ConstrucGon 351,900 4.68% 5,793,000 4.26%

Manufacturing 313,200 4.16% 11,975,000 8.80%

Trade,TransportaGon,andUGliGes 1,577,200 20.97% 25,984,000 19.10%

InformaGon 135,300 1.80% 2,700,000 1.98%

FinancialAcGviGes 506,100 6.73% 7,908,000 5.81%

Professional&BusinessServices 1,088,400 14.47% 18,586,000 13.66%

EducaGon&HealthServices 1,132,000 15.05% 20,675,000 15.20%

Leisure&Hospitality 1,019,500 13.55% 14,209,000 10.44%

OtherServices 315,300 4.19% 5,481,000 4.03%

overnment 1,077,300 14.32% 21,852,000 16.06%h"p://www.bls.gov/

FloridaBenchmarktoUSA

Fl id B h k t USA


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Florida USA

Jun-13 Jul-13


Employment 8,751,400 144,285,000

Unemployment 665,100 11,514,000


%Nonfarm %Nonfarm


ConstrucGon 351,900 4.68% 5,793,000 4.26%

Manufacturing 313,200 4.16% 11,975,000 8.80%


InformaGon 135,300 1.80% 2,700,000 1.98%





OtherServices 315,300 4.19% 5,481,000 4.03%



Fl id B h k t USA


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Florida USA

Jun-13 Jul-13


Employment 8,751,400 144,285,000

Unemployment 665,100 11,514,000


%Nonfarm %Nonfarm


ConstrucGon 351,900 4.68% 5,793,000 4.26%

Manufacturing 313,200 4.16% 11,975,000 8.80%


InformaGon 135,300 1.80% 2,700,000 1.98%





OtherServices 315,300 4.19% 5,481,000 4.03%



Fl id B h k t USA


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Florida USA

Jun-13 Jul-13


Employment 8,751,400 144,285,000

Unemployment 665,100 11,514,000


%Nonfarm %Nonfarm


ConstrucGon 351,900 4.68% 5,793,000 4.26%

Manufacturing 313,200 4.16% 11,975,000 8.80%


InformaGon 135,300 1.80% 2,700,000 1.98%





OtherServices 315,300 4.19% 5,481,000 4.03%



Fl id B h k t USA


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Florida USA

Jun-13 Jul-13


Employment 8,751,400 144,285,000

Unemployment 665,100 11,514,000


%Nonfarm %Nonfarm


ConstrucGon 351,900 4.68% 5,793,000 4.26%

Manufacturing 313,200 4.16% 11,975,000 8.80%


InformaGon 135,300 1.80% 2,700,000 1.98%





OtherServices 315,300 4.19% 5,481,000 4.03%




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h?p://www.bls.gov/eag/

Florida Economic Census


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NAICS Description Establishments Sales (,000) Payroll (,000) EMPS

21 Mining, oil/gas extraction 223 2,636,020 322,566 5,749

22 Utilities 588 2,218,481 30,920

23 Construction 51,143 117,804,385 19,587,313 473,703

31-33 Manufacturing 14,324 104,832,907 15,227,231 355,386

42 Wholesale trade 32,361 323,340,052 15,150,412 326,878

44-45 Retail trade 73,794 262,341,127 24,049,669 1,016,290

48-49 Transportation and warehousing 13,417 40,830,371 8,203,608 218,128

51 Information 8,296 9,662,863 175,382

52 Finance and insurance 34,389 21,520,038 371,543

53 Real estate and rental and leasing 33,653 32,235,384 6,094,222 170,859

54Professional, scientific, and technicalservices

69,263 61,990,032 24,395,359 430,211

55 Management of companies and enterprises 2,597 3,733,030 9,101,529 127,414

56Adm/support & waste management/

remediation

33,581 69,478,065 41,744,535 1,412,695

61 Educational services 3,968 3,066,164 835,273 29,156

62 Health care and social assistance 51,679 102,029,316 37,234,079 904,004

71 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 7,537 15,380,980 4,217,757 166,847

72 Accommodation and food services 35,012 41,922,059 11,469,998 746,214

81Other services (except publicadministration)

35,597 20,757,039 5,173,744 201,687

FloridaEconomicCensus


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NAICS Florida USA California Texas

Totalretailsales+food/drinking 44-45,722 282,927,546,331 4,320,920,742,646 519,572,073,157 336,509,063,793

Motorvehicleandpartsdealers 441 49,908,406,483 703,511,935,022 79,125,875,864 66,231,557,539

Furnitureandhomefurnishings 442 7,424,677,717 92,649,944,076 11,009,358,117 8,291,026,027

Electronicsandappliances 442 5,973,194,649 101,450,980,762 17,064,914,678 7,243,647,853

Buildingandmaterialsupply 444 23,114,349,620 430,040,551,358 44,950,786,413 32,075,136,532Foodandbeveragestores 445 37,839,715,803 589,553,810,354 78,819,692,896 42,882,837,970

Healthandpersonalcare 446 18,572,005,794 255,812,926,261 28,482,620,513 14,208,151,727

asolineservicestaGons 447 20,662,545,990 372,451,959,761 36,327,056,107 29,685,640,093

Clothingandclothingaccessories 448 16,305,949,201 210,533,954,944 28,033,491,887 15,502,637,997

SporGnggoods,hobby,book,music 451 5,206,227,086 87,342,936,634 11,049,429,616 6,807,851,088

eneralmerchandise 452 38,552,610,127 597,751,983,024 71,850,611,971 48,757,278,196

Miscellaneousstores 453 7,036,659,455 114,231,811,058 13,002,473,192 8,119,529,235

Non-storeretailers 454 19,656,138,809 306,903,995,627 39,262,789,748 21,972,486,877

Foodservices&drinkingplaces 722 32,675,065,597 458,683,953,765 60,592,972,155 34,731,282,659

www.census.gov/nielson

FloridaRetailSalesBenchmark(2010)

ains in Home Values add to Consumer Spending


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ainsinHomeValuesaddtoConsumerSpending

Florida Tourism


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FloridaTourism

www,Visi>lorida.com

2012 Increase Q12013 Increase

Total 91,400,000 4.6% 26,200,000 5.7%Air 46,500,000 1.7% 13,700,000 4.5%

Non-Air 44,900,000 7.7% 12,500,000 7.0%

Air 50.9% 52.3%

Non-Air 49.1% 47.7%

DomesGc 77,600,000 21,800,000 4.0%

Overseas 10,200,000 2,700,000 11.3%

Canada 3,600,000 1,500,000 3.9%

Spending $71,800,000,000 6.8%


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OverviewofFloridaEconomics

aryM.Ralston,CCIM,SIOR,CPM,CRE,CLSColdwellBankerCommercialSaundersRalstonDantzlerRealty

[email protected]

Documents

Florida ICSC 2013 Presentation