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8/3/2019 Flourmills 300407 - CSL http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/flourmills-300407-csl 1/13  FLOUR MILLS OF NIGERIA PLC INVESTMENT SUMMARY & HIGHLIGHTS Q3 06 result: Net Profit rises 92.11% and revenue grows by 21.4% (year on year) Flour Mills Nigeria Plc recently released its Q3 (nine months) result which showed an increase in the pre-tax profit margin by 3.5% from 6.0% in Q3 2005 to 9.5% in Q3 2006 Gross revenue rose to N58.90 billion compared to N48.5 billion in the corresponding period in 2005. Profit after tax rose to N3.90 billion compared to N2.03 billion in the corresponding period in 2005. EPS for the nine-month period is N2.51 compared to N1.30 in the corresponding period in 2005 utilizing the current outstanding shares of about 1.553 billion. Flour Mills venturing into new territory: cement production Flour Mills is currently building a cement factory in Calabar; the factory is strategically located where limestone deposits are readily found within Nigeria. This is one of the few industries in Nigeria where demand for the product currently exceeds the capacity of the cement factories on ground unlike the exact opposite for the flour industry. Add to this the steep rise in cement prices in recent months and a new cash cow for Flour Mills is about to be born. Valuation shows that Flour Mills is currently overvalued despite bright prospects The firm is overvalued at the present time; this will likely change once the full-year results are released and taken into cognisance going forward. Flour Mills fair value presently is N66.29. 2006 2007E 2008E EPS 4.01 5.73 6.00 P/E 11.41 13.08 12.50 Financial Summary Revenue: NGN86.57B, $676.33M 5-year EPS CAGR: 9.2% ROE: 30.68% Current BVPS: NGN13.06 Current CFPS: NGN5.83 Debt to Capital (%): 31.1% Fiscal Year-End: March EBITDA: NGN10.04B, $78.44M Sustainable growth rate: 24.17% pril 30, 2007 rice: NGN74.00 air Value: NGN66.29 ating: Perform ecommendation: HOLD ST); BUY (LT) arket Data redit Rating: N/A dustry Rating: BBB, Agusto oomberg: FMN NL YE: March utstanding Shares: 1.553B ee Float: 48% vidend Yield: 1.13% week high/low: GN84.00/NGN30.61 fetime High: NGN84.00 vestment Grade: C- aily avg. Volume/Value: 91,104 shares/ GN52.23M, $408,082 0-day moving average) kt.Cap:NGN116.5B; $109.9M ude Fejokwu [email protected] ola Odukoya [email protected] CSL Stockbrokers L NIGE Equity Resea NSE ASI: 47,12 41.99% Flour M ils pricemov't pr-06 26-Jul-06 26-Oct-06 26-Jan-07 26-Apr-07 are Dailypricemov't 30-daymov'gav. 60-daymov'gav.  

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FLOUR MILLS OF NIGERIA PLC

INVESTMENT SUMMARY & HIGHLIGHTS

Q3 06 result: Net Profit rises 92.11% and revenue grows by 21.4% (year on year)

Flour Mills Nigeria Plc recently released its Q3 (nine months) result which showed anincrease in the pre-tax profit margin by 3.5% from 6.0% in Q3 2005 to 9.5% in Q3 2006Gross revenue rose to N58.90 billion compared to N48.5 billion in the correspondingperiod in 2005. Profit after tax rose to N3.90 billion compared to N2.03 billion in thecorresponding period in 2005. EPS for the nine-month period is N2.51 compared to N1.30in the corresponding period in 2005 utilizing the current outstanding shares of about 1.553billion.

Flour Mills venturing into new territory: cement production

Flour Mills is currently building a cement factory in Calabar; the factory is strategicallylocated where limestone deposits are readily found within Nigeria. This is one of the fewindustries in Nigeria where demand for the product currently exceeds the capacity of thecement factories on ground unlike the exact opposite for the flour industry. Add to this thesteep rise in cement prices in recent months and a new cash cow for Flour Mills is about tobe born.

Valuation shows that Flour Mills is currently overvalued despite bright prospects 

The firm is overvalued at the present time; this will likely change once the full-year results are

released and taken into cognisance going forward. Flour Mills fair value presently is N66.29.

2006 2007E 2008E

EPS 4.01 5.73 6.00

P/E 11.41 13.08 12.50

Financial Summary

Revenue: NGN86.57B, $676.33M

5-year EPS CAGR: 9.2%

ROE: 30.68%

Current BVPS: NGN13.06

Current CFPS: NGN5.83

Debt to Capital (%): 31.1%

Fiscal Year-End: March

EBITDA: NGN10.04B, $78.44M

Sustainable growth rate: 24.17%

pril 30, 2007

rice: NGN74.00

air Value: NGN66.29

ating: Perform

ecommendation: HOLD

ST); BUY (LT)

arket Data

redit Rating: N/A

dustry Rating: BBB, Agusto

oomberg: FMN NL

YE: March

utstanding Shares: 1.553B

ee Float: 48%

vidend Yield: 1.13%

week high/low:

GN84.00/NGN30.61

fetime High: NGN84.00

vestment Grade: C-

aily avg. Volume/Value:

91,104 shares/

GN52.23M, $408,082

0-day moving average)

kt.Cap:NGN116.5B; $109.9M

ude [email protected] 

ola [email protected] 

CSL Stockbrokers L

NIGE

Equity Resea

NSE ASI: 47,12

41.99%

Flour Mills pricemov't

pr-06 26-Jul-06 26-Oct-06 26-Jan-07 26-Apr-07

are

Dailypricemov't

30-daymov'gav.

60-daymov'gav.

 

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

2  CSL Stockbrokers 

INVESTMENT THESIS

In reaction to the government’s policy initiative with respect to cement

manufacturing in Nigeria, Flour Mills has refocused its cement operations from

importation and distribution to manufacturing. Hence, the company has enteredinto a technical partnership agreement with Holcim of Spain and Orascom of

Egypt to manufacture cement at Mfamosing, Cross River State by building a

cement factory. Significant progress has been made in the construction of this

greenfield cement factory with an annual production capacity of 2.5million tonnes

at a cost of US$450million. The start-up date scheduled for the new plant has

been fixed somewhere between October to December, 2007. This will furthe

strengthen Flour Mills position within the rapidly evolving and expanding cement

industry.

Good growth stock; great value in the long term

Dividend per share is expected to increase by about 50% over last year to

about N1.30 per share from N0.85 per share. Nigerian investors love income

stocks, especially those that grow their dividends regularly which is a positive sign

of the financial health of the company.

Diversified business lines all generating revenue. Flour mills is not a mono

product firm like the name implies.

Exponential growth in profits over the past three quarters and the last fiscal year

Revenues are secondary; what matters is the bottom-line: profits.

Following a successful bid in FY05, Apapa Bulk Terminal Limited – a fully owned

subsidiary of Flour Mills – was granted two concessions to operate Terminals A

and B of the lucrative Apapa Ports Complex, Lagos, for duration of twenty-five

years under a lease agreement with the Nigerian Ports Authority and Bureau for

Public Enterprises. There is a strong potential revenue stream from the leasing o

these two terminals at the Apapa ports complex. These terminals will also reduce

importation of cement cost and demurrage.

Flour Mills revenue outpaces that of its peers under the Foods/Beverages sector

of the NSE. However, it should be noted that these companies operate diversebusinesses and work under different structures and business models.

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

3  CSL Stockbrokers 

In the FY to March ’06, Flour Mills more than doubled its return on shareholders’

equity (ROE) to about 31%. Also, high retention of profits has led to a significant

rise in sustainable growth rate to 24 percent from 6 percent in FY05. We projec

the company’s ROE and growth rate for FY07 to be about 40 percent and 31percent respectively. 

BUSINESS STRATEGY

Golden Penny Flour: Flour Mills continues to invest in the upgrading and renewa

of its production facilities. To this end, there have been significant investments in

new mills and state-of-the-art equipment to improve quality and drive costs down.

During the last five years, the company has replaced or renewed six (6) of its mills

with total daily grinding capacity of over 3,500 metric tons of wheat. The

replacement and modernization process will continue in the next two years. In

addition, there are plans to renovate the packing and loading plants, wheat

handling storage silos, wheat discharge equipment and ancillary facilities.

Return on equity

14.0812.63

15.25

23.08

12.96

30.68

39.93

27.58

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4E

%

UAC

Flour Mills

 

Revenues, N'million

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

7Up

Cadbury

Nestle

NBC

Flour Mills

 

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

4  CSL Stockbrokers 

From FY07 there will be increased emphasis on marketing activities in order to

sustain the growth momentum and preserve the firm’s leadership position in its

lines of business.

During FY07, the shareholding of United Cement Company of Nigeria Limited

(Unicem), which was founded on a 50-50 joint venture between Flour Mills o

Nigeria Plc and Holcim Trading S.A. of Spain, will be restructured and

strengthened in view of the huge capital outlay required for the successfu

execution of the new cement plant. The new shareholding structure will allow

Egyptian Cement Company (ECC), an associated company of Orascom Industries

of Egypt to participate in the equity of Unicem. Unicem’s new shareholding

structure will reflect a unique combination of international strength. Flour Mills

intends to leverage on the global industrial experience and technical expertise of

its partners to produce cement of international standard.

Nigerian Bag Manufacturing Company Limited (BAGCO): The Lagos factory

refurbishment and modernization programme has been completed with all the

machines installed and fully in operation. The initial production target of 15 million

sacks per month has been achieved. The building extensions and factory

refurbishment programme at the Kano factory are well underway. Capita

investments at BAGCO amounted to N3.4billion. These covered production

equipment, utility services and buildings.

Golden Fertilizer Company Limited (GFC):  The proposed scheme to absorb

GFC, currently a wholly owned subsidiary company into a Division of Flour Mills

has reached its final stage. Already, fertilizer bagging operations have been

mechanized as part of the measures being embarked upon to reposition GFC fo

improved performance in blending, bagging, loading and delivery operations and

to reduce handling to a barest minimum.

Niger Mills Company Limited (NMCL): In FY06, Flour Mills took a strategic

decision to increase its stake in the equity of NMCL, a flour milling company, from

51 percent to 84.6 percent. The hub of the company’s market is concentrated in

the South-Eastern and South-Southern axis of the national market. The proposed

expansion of the milling capacity would enable NMCL penetrate deep into the

Northern market particularly the North Eastern and North Central markets.

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

5  CSL Stockbrokers 

Kaboji Farms: In partnership with Northern Nigerian Flour Mills Plc, a farm o

10,000 hectares of land at Kaboji, Niger State has recently been reactivated

Management of the two companies have decided to step up the level o

investment and commitment at Kaboji Farms because they seriously believe that

agriculture, which is the mainstay of the Nigerian economy, has a great future

Presently, about half of the area has been cultivated with maize, millet, soya

beans, cassava and other products. Management believes this project will pay off

in the long run. This is a great idea given the government’s non-oil export drive.

The firm definitely feels that “variety is the spice of life” and as can be seen below

in the diversification of their revenue sources. This ensures that the firm can stil

remain as a going concern even if the demand for flour dips significantly. Thei

revenue from cement is expected to rise after the completion of their cemen

factory being built in Calabar .

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

There are about twenty-two flour mills in Nigeria. Most of the firms are in the mature stage

of their life cycle. The capacity of the industry far exceeds current flour demand in Nigeria

Capacity utilization is currently at about 40%. There is overcapacity in the industry as

capacity far outweighs the demand for flour. The industry is highly competitive; this has

led to price cutting, customized bread shapes for aesthetic appeal and increase in bread

sizes to attract the consumer who has a wide variety of bread to choose from. Thisindustry is definitely a buyers’ market. Every flour miller is trying to produce more to sel

more to break even or eek out a profit. The number of millers exceeds the demand within

the country. This had to lower returns on average per miller.

Contribution from various revenue lines

Wheat

Products

45%

Cement

30%

Pasta

5%

Fertilizers

11%

Bags

9%

Wheat Products

Cement

Pasta

Fertilizers

Bags

 

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

6  CSL Stockbrokers 

The major players in the industry are Flour Mills and Honeywell Flour. They make up

about 50% of the market leaving the other 20 flour mills to battle for about 50% of the

market share. Most of the flour mills operating in the country are localized in nature which

enables them to remain afloat because majority of their customer base are within the

neighbourhood.

The industry greatly benefits from the ban on importation of flour. Competition is therefore

local in nature which allows competition to evolve naturally on a fairly level playing field

The industry is grappling with rising production costs mainly due to inadequate or in some

places non-existent power supply. Diesel costs are spiralling and coupled with the low

level of power supply, are putting a financial burden on flour mills countrywide. Anothe

industry issue is the regulation by the government that wheat flour must be fortified with

10% cassava flour. Bakers have been complaining about less yield and shorter life span

for bread made from wheat flour mixed with 10% cassava flour. This has reduced demand

for flour from bakers that are already complying with the government directive thereby

bringing some flour mills to the brink of folding up. Flour mills will require 300,000 tonnesof cassava annually to fortify their produce.

Government says it will establish 500 cassava processing centres to help improve

cassava quality and ensure that the cassava flour produced meets the requirements of the

flour millers. Private investors are currently being encouraged by the government to inves

in cassava production plants to process cassava flour. The realization of this objective wil

likely lead to a reduction in the number of flour mills operating in the country. A member o

staff of Flour Mills recently said that only 50 out of 150 cassava producers met the

company standard for cassava flour. Quality of flour produced is instrumental to

maintaining and increasing customer base in this competitive industry.

It is imperative that the flour millers produce high quality flour to ensure that their average

demand per miller (which is quite low) does not decrease further than the low levels it is

already at. There is a flight to quality in the industry; bakers and flour millers can not risk

alienating their customer base. The deadline for implementation is July 1st, though the

National Union of Food, Beverages & Tobacco employees union has appealed to the

government to grant flour mills a grace of two years to comply with the directive. The

government is yet to issue a categorical statement at the time of writing this report.

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

7  CSL Stockbrokers 

COMPANY SYNOPSIS 

Flour Mills was incorporated in 1960. The firm is a conglomerate with a focus on food and

cement products. Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc’s activities span flour milling, pasta

manufacturing, port operations, cement trade & manufacturing, fertilizer blending, bags &other packaging materials manufacturing and agricultural business. At present, the Flour

Mills group employs approximately 5,200 staff. Flour Mills’ subsidiaries include: Nigerian

Bag Manufacturing Company Limited (BAGCO); Northern Nigeria Bag Manufacturing

Company, Northern Nigeria Flour Mills Plc; Southern Star Shipping Company (Nigeria)

Limited; Golden Shipping Company Nigeria Limited (GSC);Golden Pasta Company

Limited; Apapa Bulk Terminal Limited; Golden Fertilizer, Niger Mills Company Limited

United Cement Company of Nigeria and Kaboji Farms Limited. Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc

also holds interest in Maiduguri Flour Mills Limited (manages the mill) and Flour Mills

Registrar Limited. The firm possesses one of the largest flour mills in the world. Flou

Mills makes twenty-four products in five categories: wheat (5), pasta (7), fertilizer (5)

packaging (5), and cement (2). Flour Mills was listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange on

August 14, 1979.

FINANCIAL RESULTS

Results for the third quarter October ’06 to December ’06 shows a 21.4% (year-

on-year) increase in sales to N18.9billion while post-tax profit increased by 154%

to N1.6billion. Earnings per share for the quarter equally increased by 112% to

N1.03 while net profit margin improved to 8% form 4% in December ’05. The firm

has a great knack for converting revenue to profit. Over the past three quarters o

FY 2006/2007, the percentage increase in profit has exceeded the percentage

increase in revenue by 200%. The firm is doing a great job in managing its costs

and this is likely attributable to the use of natural gas in fuelling its eight generating

sets instead of diesel and its ownership of a port which should reduce its por

charges, demurrage and distribution costs.

Revenue from component parts

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Wheat

Products

Cement Pasta Fertilizers Bags

N'million

2004

2005

2006

 

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

8  CSL Stockbrokers 

Cumulatively, Flour Mills’ 9-month sales increased by 21% to N58.9 billion pos

tax profits increased by 92% to N3.9 billion. Flour Mills’ net margin for the period

improved to 6.62% while EPS for the period increased to N2.51 from N1.31 in ’05.

Flour Mills’ impressive run in FY06 saw the company’s profits increasing by 219.4

percent to N4.7billion and net margin improving to 5.4% (’05: 2.2%) while EPS

increased to N4.01 (’05: N1.26) As a result, the company recorded a growth rate

of 24.2% (’05: 5.6%), which can be directly traced to the increase in return on

equity and rate of retention to 30.7% (’05:12.5%) and 78% (’05: 44%) respectively

Despite the huge investment in assets during the year - especially the upgrade

and renewal of production facilities – return on assets increased to 9.1% (’05:

3.7%) while assets turnover improved marginally to 1.70% (’05: 1.67%).

Although Flour Mills remains exposed to financial risks, a reduction in its interest

expense to N1.3bn (’05: N1.5bn) and an increase in profit before interest and tax

saw its interest cover ratio improving to 5.2x (’05: 2.1x) while enhanced

productivity was underscored by the increase in productivity ratio to

N23.2million/staff (’05: N15.0million/staff).

On the other hand, we are concerned about Flour Mills’ rising debt profile as bankoverdrafts and term loans increased by 14.5% to N14.7bn, which pushed debt

equity ratio to 96.3% (’05: 84.2%). Flour Mills’ term loans of about N11.7bn are

subject to interest at prevailing market rates, repayable in various instalments

between April 2006 and December 2011 and secured by negative pledge. Despite

the N5.0bn rights issue proceeds and N5.9bn term loans injected into the

company’s operations in FY ’05 and ’06 respectively, free cashflow remains at ni

as investment in fixed assets remained ahead of cashflow from operations. Also

the company’s working capital remains under pressure as current liabilities

continue to outstrip current assets by N1.6bn (’05: N2.5bn)

CONTRIBUTION OF 9 MONTHS FIGURES TO FULL YEAR RESULTS

2006 2005 2004 Average

SALES 56% 56% 52% 55%

PAT 43% 56% 32% 44%

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

9  CSL Stockbrokers 

VALUATION

Using a five-year discounted cash-flow valuation approach: the intrinsic value of Flour Millsat this time is N6.54. The WACC utilized is 44.77% (the beta of 1.69 is calculated using afour-year calendar period, the risk-free rate is 10.75%, the cost of debt is 14.75%). Thedividend discount model generated an intrinsic value of N78.31 while our relative valuationtechnique generated an intrinsic value of  N95.97, Our forward P/E to forward EPS(extrapolation) generated an intrinsic value of N64.50, while a fifth approach called forwardP/E to forward EPS (growth) generated an intrinsic value of  N79.73. Our EV/EBITDAapproach generated an intrinsic value of  N72.67. Using an equal-weighted average othese six prices yields a final price of N66.29 which is our final fair value estimate for FlourMills at this time. The use of multiple approaches to generate our fair value estimate helpsus to avoid model bias and maintenance research which becomes more likely when onevaluation approach is used to determine the fair value of a firm.

We project FY2006/2007 revenue for Flour Mills to be N104B and PAT to be N8.9B. Thiswas projected purely based on our extrapolation valuation approach factoring in quarterlytrends. We believe this is realistic and likely, barring the unforeseen. This yields a forwardEPS for FY2006/2007 of N5.73 which can be found in the table on the first page of thisreport.

Analysis of cashf low, capex & debt

3,164

7,567 7,726

3,899

8,384

9,2869,806

11,213

14,655

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

2004 2005 2006

N'mill ion

O p. c ashflow Capex Loans & o/d

 

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

10  CSL Stockbrokers 

INVESTMENT RISKS

Economic Factors: The purchasing power of the average Nigerian is quite low and this is

worsened daily by rising inflation, unemployment and underemployment. This reduces thedemand for flour products, the most staple of them being bread. This will reduce demandfor flour with the attendant effect on revenues and profits. The way the economy goes, theway demand for flour products by the populace goes.

Regulatory Risk: A ban has been in place for a number of years on the importation offlour into the country. The government has over the years banned and lifted the ban onimportation of different items at their discretion. As much as there may be no reason to lifthe ban on importation of flour, nothing stops the government from doing so even it’s to thedetriment of local brands. The government’s actions are largely unpredictable.

Currency Risk: Flour Mills currently imports cement and is therefore exposed to currencyrisks. Unless the firm buys currency futures and/or options to hedge its exposure

significant losses are plausible due to depreciation of the Naira against the majorcurrencies.

Competition (Internal & External): Flour Mills (a conglomerate) has other subsidiarieswhich we believe will compete with each other for funds and attention. The BagManufacturing Co. (BAGCO) produces bags for flour products and cement produced byFlour Mills and also supplies bags to external clients. With the coming on line of thecement factory, we believe that BAGCO will find it difficult in the early going to meeexternal and internal demand. This may lead to loss of market share externally. Flour canbe customized to the needs of the niche market; Flour Mills will not be able to satisfy thevarying needs of its customers as this will not be cost-beneficial; this will likely lead to lossof market share by Flour Mills.

Industry Risk: The barriers to entry are quite low in the industry leading to the number ofplayers increasing steadily. Unless there is a new found use of flour currently not knownto us, the market share for the big players in the market like Flour Mills and Honeywell wilgradually dwindle. This might explain Flour Mills head-on entry into the cemenmanufacturing business with the building of a cement factory in Calabar.

Political Risk: The expected change of government early this summer will bring its ownshare of uncertainty to the industry. The government has given flour mills across thecountry up till July 1st to comply with its directive that there be 10% injection of cassavainto flour production. Bakers (major users of flour) have been kicking against it due to thenegative effects of the cassava injection into the flour they use for baking bread coupledwith the inability of cassava growers to meet the current demand of various users ofcassava . This will likely have an effect on the profitability of flour mills unless amoratorium is placed on the directive.

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

11  CSL Stockbrokers 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Financial models and/or methodology used in this report 

Recommendations and opinions in this research report are formed based on acombination of discounted cash flow analysis, industry knowledge, relative valuationtechniques, logical extrapolations, peer group analysis, and company specific and marketechnical elements (events affecting both the financial and operational profile of thecompany). Forecasting of company sales and earnings is based on segmented bottom upmodels using subjective views of relevant future market developments. The output isaggregated into models for group profit and loss, balance sheets and cash flow estimateswhere available – all taking into account the recent development in historical reports. Inaddition, company guidance and financial guidance is taken into account.

The assigned Investment Grade is made up of twenty variables analyzing a firm’sprofitability, efficiency, liquidity, growth, relative valuation ratios, capital structure, marketvalue and management performance. Each variable is assigned a maximum score of fivetotalling one hundred points.

A grade of A – B- means the firm has a positive performance outlookA grade of C+ to C- means the firm has a fair performance outlookA grade of D – F means the firm has a negative performance outlook

We are recommending a HOLD in the short-term for those investors seeking to generatereturns exceeding 10% within the next one month. We are recommending a BUY in thelong-term for those investors who are willing to wait for about 1.5 – 3 months to generatereturns in excess of 15%. The firm is currently overvalued and we expect this to changeonce the full-year results are factored into future valuations.

A HOLD means if you have not bought, do not buy yet and if you have bought, do not selyet.

Risk warningMajor risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this report, including asensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions have been taken into consideration indeveloping this report. Any particular risk to the company that we are aware of has beendiscussed in the body of this report.

Expected updatesThis research product will be updated on a quarterly basis or as material informationbecomes available. This research report is on a stock under “active coverage.” Please

see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related datais calculated using the closing price of Flour Mills on April 27th, 2007.

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

12  CSL Stockbrokers 

Hedge Clause 

This report has been prepared by the Investment Research Department of CSLStockbrokers. The author of this report is Jude Fejokwu, Head, Investment Research &Strategy and a team of analysts.

CSL Stockbrokers has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and toensure the provision of high quality research based on research objectivity andindependence. These procedures are documented in the CSL Stockbrokers Standards of Professional Conduct. CSL Stockbrokers Investment Research department is organizedindependently from and does not report to other business areas of the First City Group.

CSL Stockbrokers has made no agreement with Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc to write thisreport.

CSL Stockbrokers research reports are prepared in accordance with the CFA Institute’s

Ethical rules on Research Reports writing.

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CSL RESEARCH Flour Mills of Nigeria

13  CSL Stockbrokers 

Abridged Financials (2-year projections and 3-year actual results)

Profit & Loss (Nm) 2008E 2007E 2006A 2005A 2004A

Gross Earnings 130,000 104,000 86,571 66,805 53,563

Interest Paid 1,111 1,203 1,304 1,518 1,531

Gross Profit 30,518 21,516 15,153 9,308 7,517

Overhead Expenses 15,892 12,439 9,735 7,711 5,964

Profit Before Tax 21,083 11,533 6,308 2,025 1,887

Taxation 5,186 2,918 1,640 563 517

Profit After Tax 15,897 8,614 4,667 1,462 1370

Dividend Paid 1,924 1,380 991 815 510

Retained Earnings 13,973 7,234 3,657 695 869

Balance Sheet (Nm)

Fixed Assets 54,474 37,893 26,359 19,791 12,755

Total Assets 88,395 67,167 51,037 39,929 29,467

Current Liabilities 32,488 28,367 24,771 21,472 18,888

Total Liabilities 68,012 52,149 39,986 33,095 23,509

Share Capital 582 582 582 582 364

Shareholders Fund 38,987 24,354 15,214 11,651 5,937

Key Ratios and Variables

Gross earnings growth (%) 25.00 20.00 29.59 24.72 26.78

Net Margin (%) 5.65 5.44 5.39 2.19 2.56

Asset Turnover (times) 3.18 3.15 3.11 3.18 3.85

Liquidity Ratio (times) 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.88 0.82

Return on Asset (%) 12.35 17.20 16.77 6.96 9.84

Return on Equity (%) 38.00 40.00 30.68 12.55 23.08

Earnings per Share (N) 4.10 3.54 4.01 1.26 1.88

Price Earnings (times) 18.75 21.20 11.41 15.88 9.50

Dividend per Share (N) 1.50 1.30 0.85 0.70 0.70

Dividend Yield 1.80 1.73 1.86 3.50 3.92

PEG ratio 0.75 0.58 0.35 0.49 0.29

Cash Flow/Total Assets 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.23 0.15

Financial Year End Price (N) 92.00 77.45 28.50 16.61 16.50

Cash Flow from operations (Nm) 2008E 2007E 2006A 2005A 2004A

Cash Receipts 135,146 107,220 85,065 69,502 53,542

Cash Payments 118,728 95,824 77,338 61,935 50,377

Net cash from Operations 18,864 12,073 7,727 7,567 3,165

CAPEX 22,115 14,330 9,286 8,384 3,899