Foundation Types for Larger Turbines

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Foundation Types for Larger Turbines

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    Month day, year

    Foundations for larger & deeper offshore wind Which foundation type is cost effective for larger turbines and increasingly complex projects?

    A commercial study comparing price for various offshore wind foundation technologies

    February 2015

  • 2 Currently there are 43 installation vessels suitable for offshore wind construction in EU; daily rate ranges between EUR 70k to 290k

    The current vessel days are just enough to meet the demand from conventional foundations In 1200 tonne lifting category, new foundations increase the vessel oversupply by 32% percent by 2020

    New foundation

    designs could

    lead to major

    oversupply in the

    vessels market

    II

    New foundation designs could be cost effective as compared to conventional designs and also

    reduce vessel demand for construction

    Source: MEC+ analysis

    SUMMARY

    Foundation cost are primary driven by Material and installation costs with 65-85 % share of the total cost and have been considered in this study

    New foundation designs have lower costs as turbines become larger and installed in deeper sea For 6 MW, new foundations are ~4-20% lower in material cost when compared to monopiles & jackets while for turbine sizes 8

    MW and larger, new designs reduce the cost by ~21-24%

    Installation cost does not vary much in comparison to material costs, but can be a bottleneck in timely execution of the OW farm. New foundation designs can reduce the installation cost by ~50% as compared to the conventional designs

    Mono-suction bucket is cost effective for 4-6 MW turbine size at lower to medium depths, while CraneFree Gravity is most suitable for even larger turbines at medium to larger depths

    Cost reduction potential of 5-15% is observed for foundations at select 5 farms in Europe. However, developers need to manage risk and other associated premium costs with appropriate contracting

    New foundation

    designs could be

    10 percent to 30

    percent cheaper

    as compared to

    conventional

    designs

    I

  • 3Around 5600 turbines are expected to be

    installed by 2020

    ..resulting in cumulative capacity of 27 GW

    expected to start construction by 2020

    Innovation is being driven to reduce the high cost of energy from offshore wind planned in EUINTRODUCTION

    2,9

    2019

    5,9

    2018

    7,9

    2017

    5,5

    2016

    4,8

    2015

    1,3

    2020

    OW annual capacity in GW*

    654

    954

    286

    20202019

    1.050

    2018

    1.493

    2017

    1.245

    20162015

    No. Of Foundations

    * Based on the construction start year of the farms

    Source: Windpower database, News articles, MEC+ analysis

    4-6 MW 6-8 MWDominating Turbine Sizes

    ..the offshore wind energy industry

    needs to attract between 90 bn. and 123 bn. by 2020 to meet its deployment targets, increasing its

    installed capacity from 6 GW in mid-

    2013 to 40 GW.

    EWEA, 2013

    ..supply chain is innovating to reduce

    costs and deliver a competitive product

    for UK and international

    markets.costs can be reduced to around 100/ MWh for a project

    financed in 2020. main areas of cost reduction are larger turbines, supply

    chain competition, better design and

    economies of scale,risk reduction and lower costs of capital..

    UK Trade & Investment, 2014

    Large investment is planned in OW

    1.8 10 6.3 5.6 2.5 2.8

    XX Contracted capacity in the year

    Expected annual capacity to start construction by

    2020

  • 4New foundation designs claim to reduce the cost of foundation and also of the entire offshore

    windfarm

    * Others include risks, insurances, noise mitigation, sea fastening, onshore logistics etc.

    Source: IRENA 2012, MEC+ Analysis

    LOW MATERIAL COSTS

    Lesser quantity of materials

    Use of Cheaper Material

    1

    OTHER ADVANTAGES

    Noise mitigation regulations compliance

    Easier decommissioning

    Reusable designs

    3

    INSTALLATION COSTS

    Less installation time

    No use of expensive installation vessels

    2

    INTRODUCTION

    9%

    Grid

    Connection

    Planning &

    Miscellaneous

    Cost breakup of

    OW Installation

    64%

    16%

    11%

    100%

    Wind

    Turbine

    Foundation

    Installation

    Cost

    Material

    Cost

    Cost Breakup of

    OW Foundation

    100

    15-20%

    15-25%

    50-60%

    100%

    Others

    Foundations are a large

    investment on a farm level

    Costs are divided into three

    major components

    New designs are being offered in the market which

    lower the cost

  • 5Three new designs have been considered to compare their cost effectiveness against the

    conventional monopiles and jackets

    Jacket

    CraneFree Gravity

    (CFG)

    Suction Bucket Jacket

    (SBJ)

    Mono Suction Bucket

    (MSB)

    Source: Windpower.net, Company websites, News articles, MEC+ analysis

    Monopile

    Structural Design Column of steel Steel lattice frame

    with piles

    Concrete base

    with steel column

    Steel lattice with

    bucket in bottom

    Steel bucket with

    column on top

    London Array, UK Horn Rev I, DK Nordsee One, DE Egmond aan Zee, NL

    Prototype at:

    Borkum Riffgrund 1 Ormonde, UK Alpha Ventus, DE Thronton Bank, BE Beatrice, UK

    Prototype at:

    Fecamp, FRPrototype at:

    Dogger Bank, UK Frederikshavn, DKProminent Projects

    The three new innovative designs considered for the analysis, benchmark their two main advantages:

    Material cost effectiveness Alternative installation techniques and cost savings

    INTRODUCTION

    Easier to fabricate Cutting and Rolling of

    steel

    Complex design, difficult to fabricate

    Requires intensive welding at joints

    Difficult to fabricate Requires extensive

    welding at joints

    Requires fabrication yard to be setup at port

    for mass production

    Intricate design but relatively easier to

    fabricate due to

    symmetrical design

    Fabrication

    Installation through OW construction

    vessels with significant

    lifting capabilities

    Requires drilling/pilling, grouting, scour

    protection

    Installation through OW construction

    vessels with significant

    lifting capabilities

    Requires drilling/piling, grouting, scour

    protection

    Requires OW construction vessels

    with significant lifting

    capabilities

    Installation through suction action of three

    suction pumps working

    in tandem

    Installation through Tugboats and position

    assisting OW vessels

    Requires sand ballasting, scour

    protection

    Installation through Tugboats, OW

    construction vessels;

    through specialized

    suction pumpInstallation

    Commercial Designs New Designs

  • 6Material and installation costs are the largest cost constituents with 65-85 % share of the total cost

    and have been considered in this study

    Indicative cost breakup of a typical OW foundation

    Note: Cost shares vary in a broad range due to varying foundation design, risks and insurances based on local industries experience, and contracting models

    * Game changers refers to large cost shares which have potential to change the COST based analysis

    Source: MEC+ analysis

    Material used to

    manufacture the

    foundation, e.g.

    Different types of steel

    Concrete

    Others

    Installation at

    offshore site using

    Installation vessels

    Drilling/pilling/ suction pumps,

    Sand ballasting, Grouting, Scour

    protection

    Others

    Noise mitigation

    Onshore logistics

    Sea-fastening

    Risk premiums

    Insurances

    Profit margins

    Out of Scope

    Depend on market factors, driven by

    local needs

    Material Cost

    50-60%

    Total

    100%

    15-25%

    Installation Cost Other costs Market Costs

    5%15-20%

    INTRODUCTION

    In Scope

    Depend on design

    Includes costs that are

    due to design advantages

    but are not game changer* in light of comparisons

    Noise mitigation

    Decommissioning

  • 7Material cost depends upon the quantities and unit prices of variable types of materials

    used in the foundations

    Source: Scholar articles and thesis from various research institutions, Industry expert inputs, foundation manufacturers, MEC+ analysis

    Monopile,

    Transition

    piece

    -4 pre-piles Top

    cylindrical

    structure, bottom

    skirt

    Top

    shaft Primary Steel

    - Jacket body,

    3 suction

    buckets

    Jacket body,

    Transition

    piece

    - Bottom bucket,

    middle inter-

    connecting lidHigher Grade

    Primary Steel

    Boat-

    landing, J-

    tubes, platforms

    etc.

    Boat

    landing, J-

    tubes, platforms

    etc.

    Boat

    landing, J-

    tubes, platforms

    etc.

    Boat

    landing, J-

    tubes, platforms

    etc.

    Boat

    landing, J-

    tubes, platforms

    etc.

    Secondary Steel

    - -- Bottom

    cement

    gravity structure

    -

    Concrete

    - -- Sand

    ballasting

    material: 62.500

    EUR/foundation

    -

    Miscellaneous

    1.600

    3.200-4.500

    7.800

    170

    MATERIAL COST ANALYSIS

    Low

    High

    Jacket

    CraneFree

    Gravity (CFG)

    Suction Bucket

    Jacket (SBJ)

    Mono Suction

    Bucket (MSB)Monopile

    Unit Rate

    (EUR per tonne)

    Relative

    quantity used

    Materials

    Utilisation in designMaterial Cost

  • 8The quantity of material used in foundation is driven mainly by the depth of the seabed and turbine

    size

    Material cost has been analyzed as a variation of the

    depth of the seabed and

    turbine size

    Factors like physical conditions of the site have been

    considered too, though

    affecting the cost marginally

    10 20 30 40 50 60

    2.500

    0

    5.000

    10 20 30 40 50 60

    3.000

    0

    Depth of the seabed

    Turbine Size

    Others

    Physical condition e.g. Seabed, Weather

    No. Of Foundations

    Physical soil conditions have very little effect on the weight of the foundation

    No. Of foundations contribute only as the economy of scale factor and are highly

    variable according to the contracting model

    Weight comparison of the foundation types

    Tonne

    MATERIAL COST ANALYSIS

    SBJ

    Monopile (8 MW)

    Jacket (6 MW)

    MSB

    Jacket (8 MW)

    Monopile (6 MW)

    CFG

    Various factors affect the weight

    of the foundation and in turn the

    material cost

  • 9For 6 MW, new foundations have ~4-20% lower material cost when compared to monopiles &

    jackets

    Steel quantity* for different foundation designs for 6 MW

    Tonnes

    Note: CFG uses steel in upper cone, cylindrical tower and reinforced bars for concrete cone. The steel quantity graph excludes the reinforced bars. Steel tonnage for CFG not

    available for >4MW turbine sizes;

    * Monopiles steel tonnage includes monopile, TP and secondary structures; Jacket includes lattice structure, TP, pre-piles, secondary structure; MSB includes bucket/skirt, lid, shaft, secondary structure; SBJ includes 3 buckets, lattice structure, secondary structure

    Source: MEC+ analysis

    Depth (in m)

    10 20 30 40 50 60

    0

    3.000

    2.000

    1.000

    TonnesJacketMonopile SBJMSB

    10 20 30 40 50 60

    0

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    -20%

    -4%

    EUR mil.

    Total material cost for different foundation designs for 6 MW

    Euro millions per foundation

    SBJMSBCFGJacketMonopile

    MATERIAL COST ANALYSIS

    Introduction of

    XL/XXL monopiles

    By weight, the new designs are similar to monopiles and jackets (up

    to 30 m)

    ..While the cost reflects a different trend due to variable mix of

    material component

  • 10

    For turbine sizes 8 MW and larger, new designs reduce the cost by ~21-24%

    Note: CFG uses steel in upper cone, cylindrical tower and reinforced bars for concrete cone. The steel quantity graph excludes the reinforced bars. Steel tonnage for CFG not

    available for >4MW turbine sizes;

    * Monopiles steel tonnage includes monopile, TP and secondary structures; Jacket includes lattice structure, TP, pre-piles, secondary structure; MSB includes bucket/skirt, lid, shaft, secondary structure; SBJ includes 3 buckets, lattice structure, secondary structure

    Source: MEC+ analysis

    Steel quantity* for different foundation designs for 8 MW

    Tonnes

    Total material cost for different foundation design for 8 MW

    Euro millions per foundation

    Depth (in m)

    10 20 30 40 50 60

    3.000

    2.000

    1.000

    0

    TonnesSBJMSBJacketMonopile

    10 20 30 40 50 60

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    7

    6

    0

    -21%

    -24%

    EUR mil.SBJMSBCFGJacketMonopile

    MATERIAL COST ANALYSIS

    Introduction of

    XL/XXL monopiles

    Even with larger turbine to support, new designs have steadier

    weight trends, while monopile weight increases exponentially..

    which is reflected in material cost as new designs could be cost effective

  • 11

    Installation cost depends on the various processes, unique to each foundation design,

    affecting its installation duration and cost

    * Days are estimated based on assumption that there are no delays like supply chain delays, unavailability of vessels/boats

    Source: Seatower, Universal foundations, Dong Energy, DTU, MEC+ analysis

    Brief description on installation concept and number of days required

    New foundation designs can be

    installed in 1-3 days-

    decreasing the total

    time for installation of

    foundations

    The OW farm can therefore be installed

    in shorter

    construction

    schedules saving cost

    and faster generation

    of revenues

    Total Days

    Installation Process

    Duration

    Cost

    INSTALLATION COST ANALYSIS

    PillingUpending/

    LoweringDrilling GroutingSuction

    Sand

    Ballasting

    Scour

    Protection

    2-3

    2-3*

    4-6

    1-2*

    1-2*

    Stability Ensuring Process

    High

    Low

    Required

  • 12

    Installation cost do not vary much as compared to the material cost, but can be a bottleneck in timely

    execution of the OW farm

    Installation cost is a minor factor approx. 5- 25 % of the material

    cost for a typical** farm

    configurations

    Therefore, its minor variation does not affect the cost trend

    obtained from material cost

    However, farm construction duration and installation cost are

    significantly affected by the

    vessel availability in market

    necessitating easier installation

    concept

    Installation cost range compared to material costs

    for a single foundation for variable configurations*

    * Configuration used for determining cost: Turbine size= 6 & 8 MW, Depth= 0 to 60 m, Distance= 0 to 90 km, Seabed= soft for pilling & rocky for drilling, Wind farm size = 50-100

    ** Configuration for calculating typical cost: Turbine size= 6 MW, Depth= 30 m, Distance= 0 -30 km Seabed= soft, Wind farm size = 50-100

    Source: MEC+ analysis

    4,0

    3,0

    2,0

    1,0

    0,0

    0,5

    2,5

    1,5

    3,5

    4,5

    Euro millions

    per foundation

    SBJMSBCFGJacketMonopile

    Installation cost has been estimated

    based on the variation across

    following factors

    Installation Concepts-

    Feeder concept- transit through barges or floating pulled by

    tugboats and/or installation via

    installation vessel

    Installation vessels for end to end installation

    Turbine size & depth of the seabed determining the foundation weight,

    crane capacity, and therefore vessel

    day-rate

    No. of days of foundation installation

    Seabed type determining the need for pilling or drilling

    Distance from the shore determining transit time

    INSTALLATION COST ANALYSIS

    Typical** Material Cost for 6 MW

    Installation* cost range

  • 13

    New foundation designs can reduce the installation cost by ~50% as compared to the conventional

    designs

    Indicative installation cost in for different foundation types*

    Euro millions per Foundation

    * All calculations done for base case configuration (Turbine size = 6MW, Depth = 30 m, Distance = 0-30 km, Sea Type = North Sea, Wind farm size = 50-100, Seabed = Soft)

    Source: MEC+ analysis

    0,31

    MSB CFG

    0,56

    MonopileJacket

    0,42

    0,33

    0,27

    SBJ

    EUR mil

    0,19

    (50%)

    INSTALLATION COST ANALYSIS

    Average for

    conventional designs

    Average for new

    designs

    New foundations have drastically lower

    installation cost mainly due to the

    cumulative effect of

    Less number of installation days

    Less expensive vessels corresponding to lower lifting

    capacity required or not needed at

    all

  • 14

    Cumulative cost of material and installation indicates that new foundations could be a more cost

    effective solution than traditional designs for higher turbine sizes and greater depths

    10 20 30 40 50 60

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    0

    EUR mil.

    6 MW 8 MW

    Depth (in m)

    For a 6 MW turbine, CFG and MSB would offer cost advantage than the conventional Monopile and Jacket foundations at depths > 30m

    CFG, a gravity based design could potentially be the most economical foundation design at all depths for turbine sizes > 6MW

    Total cost for different foundation types*

    Euro Millions / foundation

    Note: *All calculations done for base case configuration (Distance = 0-30 km, Sea Type = North Sea, Wind farm size = 50-100, Seabed = Soft)

    Source: MEC+ analysis

    10 20 30 40 50 60

    4

    3

    2

    1

    0

    7

    6

    5

    EUR mil.

    SBJMSBCFGJacketMonopile

    COST ANALYSIS

  • 15

    Most cost effective offshore wind foundations across different project configurations

    Mono-suction bucket is cost effective for 4-6 MW turbine size at lower to

    medium depths, while CraneFree Gravity is most suitable for even larger

    turbines at medium to larger depths

    Note: 1. Cost includes mainly material cost, seabed preparation costs, installation costs. However, cost doesnt include EPC margins, profits, insurance costs, manpower expenses, transportation costs incurred from manufacturing location to the port

    2. CFG is not applicable for depth 25

    Figure in the grid depicts the lowest cost foundation (within 10% error margin)

  • 16

    Inch Cape, United Kingdom

    Seabed: Soft No. of turbines: 213Distance: 22 KM

    Turbine size: 5 MW Average depth: 47,5 m (40 55 m)

    SBJ 5,7

    MSB 4,2

    CFG 3,6

    J 4,3

    M 4,7

    Transport and Installation

    Seabed Prep

    Material

    Baltic Blue C, Estonia*

    Seabed: RockyNo. of turbines: 60Distance: 6,7 KM

    Turbine size: 7 MW Average depth: 30 m (24 - 36 m)

    SBJ 0,0

    MSB 0,0

    CFG 3,4

    J 4,0

    M 4,6

    Wikinger, Germany

    Seabed: SoftNo. of turbines: 70Distance: 35 KM

    Turbine size: 6 MW Average depth: 35m (25 - 45 m)

    SBJ 4,7

    MSB 2,8

    CFG 3,3

    J 3,6

    M 3,4

    Oost Friesland, Netherlands

    Seabed: Soft No. of turbines: 90-150Distance: 23 KM

    Turbine size: 4 MW Average depth: 20 m

    SBJ 3,8

    MSB 2,3

    CFG 2,9

    J 2,8

    M 2,7

    Saint-Nazaire, France

    Seabed: Medium No. of turbines: 80Distance: 12 KM

    Turbine size: 6 MW Average depth: 17,5 m

    4,3

    MSB

    SBJ

    2,6

    CFG 3,1

    J 3,2

    M 3,0

    Different foundations will be attractive for different farm configurations. Cost simulation results for some upcoming OW farms in Europe are presented below

    Total cost per foundation (EUR Millions)

    EUROPE - KEY PROJECTS AND FOUNDATION COSTS

    Note: This mapping is based on the results of the cost simulation model built by MEC+, Transportation cost is computed from the nearest manufacturer

    *Since practical application of the suction bucket concepts in rocky seabed are highly unlikely, the cost comparisons are therefore not shown

    Source: MEC+ analysis, The Wind Power database

    Cost reduction potential of 5-15% is observed for foundations at select 5 farms in

    Europe

  • 17

    Developers need to manage risk and other associated premium costs with appropriate

    contracting High

    Low

    * The definition of risks is limited to systematic project risks inherent in the business and excludes unexpected weather, geotechnical & political risks

    ** Suitability is based on the key need to manage risk at project level for the developer or contractor

    Source: MEC+ analysis

    RISK ANALYSIS

    Value proposition

    to developer

    Suitable

    foundation**

    Construction

    contracts are given

    out in packages of

    turbines,

    foundations, etc

    Brief Description

    Project owner signs

    many contracts

    within each

    segment, while

    managing the

    project

    Construction

    management is

    out sourced

    One contract for

    the entire project

    Package EPC

    Contracting

    Structure

    Multi contract

    EPCM

    Project EPC

    Benefits to the developer

    Risk* Cost

    No risk premium

    attached and has

    full project control

    Limited EPC

    capabilities

    needed, which

    takes time and are

    costly to develop

    Sub package risks

    are with the

    supplier and

    limited risk

    premium and

    project control

    Limited EPC

    capabilities

    needed, which

    takes time and are

    costly to develop

  • 18

    Currently there are 43 installation vessels suitable for offshore wind construction in EU; daily rate ranges between EUR 70k to 290k

    The current vessel days are just enough to meet the demand from conventional foundations In 1200 tonne lifting category, new foundations increase the vessel oversupply by 32% percent by 2020

    New foundation

    designs could

    lead to major

    oversupply in the

    vessels market

    II

    New foundation designs could be cost effective as compared to conventional designs and also

    reduce vessel demand for construction

    Source: MEC+ analysis

    SUMMARY

    Foundation cost are primary driven by Material and installation costs with 65-85 % share of the total cost and have been considered in this study

    New foundation designs have lower costs as turbines become larger and installed in deeper sea For 6 MW, new foundations are ~4-20% lower in material cost when compared to monopiles & jackets while for turbine

    sizes 8 MW and larger, new designs reduce the cost by ~21-24%

    Installation cost does not vary much in comparison to material costs, but can be a bottleneck in timely execution of the OW farm. New foundation designs can reduce the installation cost by ~50% as compared to the conventional designs

    Mono-suction bucket is cost effective for 4-6 MW turbine size at lower to medium depths, while CraneFree Gravity is most suitable for even larger turbines at medium to larger depths

    Cost reduction potential of 5-15% is observed for foundations at select 5 farms in Europe. However, developers need to manage risk and other associated premium costs with appropriate contracting

    New foundation

    designs could be

    10 percent to 30

    percent cheaper

    as compared to

    conventional

    designs

    I

  • 19

    Currently there are 43 installation vessels suitable for offshore wind construction in EU; daily rate

    ranges between EUR 70k to 290k

    Source: Ballast Nedam, IT Power UK, Windpower Offshore, News articles and research papers, MEC+ analysis

    Supply of OW vessels in Europe

    # of vessels by lifting categories

    VESSEL DEMAND-SUPPLY

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    >20001600-20001200-1600800-1200400-8000-400

    Cranes(Sheerleg+Monohull)

    HLV(HLVs+WIVs)

    Jack Ups(Vessels+Barges)

    Lifting capacity in tonnes

    0,30

    0,00

    0,25

    0,15

    0,20

    0,05

    0,10

    >20001600-20001200-1600800-1200400-8000-400

    Day rate range

    Day rates of OW vessels in EU

    Indicative day rates in EUR mil.

    Lifting capacity in tonnes

    EUR

    millions

  • 20

    The planned OW pipeline is prone unavailability risk of appropriate installation vessel, if conventional

    foundations are considered to scale with expected demand thereby impacting costs

    10.000

    5.000

    0

    2020

    2.006

    2019

    7.670

    2018

    4.569

    2017

    3.703

    2016

    3.029

    2015

    2.089

    6.494

    00

    2020

    2.779

    20192018

    5.609

    2017

    1.595

    2016

    4.060

    2015

    3.212

    001360

    721

    2015

    2.920

    20202019201820172016

    3.534

    800 - 1200 tonne0 - 800 tonne >1200 tonne

    Scenario I: Vessel supply demand based on installation of only conventional designs

    In Vessel Days

    Minor Shortfall

    Can be met with higher capacity cranes at higher cost

    Note: The complete process will take about 5 days on average for installation of conventional foundations with 2.5 days in turbine installation. The standard turbine weights has

    been considered in estimating the demand for turbine installation. Demand from OW O&M has not been considered.

    Note 2: Demand for vessels is estimated on the construction/installation start year of the OW farms. Lifting cranes vessels are expected to operate for 10-11 months a year

    Source: Windpower, Wind energy update, NREL, Offshore Wind Energy Cost Modelling By Mark J Kaiser, Brian F Snyde, MEC+ analysis

    Crane lifting

    capacity

    VESSEL DEMAND-SUPPLY

    Shortfall

    Can be met with higher capacity cranes at high cost

    Prone to project delays

    Minor Shortfall

    Cannot be met with the existing fleet

    Most likely to cause project delays

    Alternate: use multple support vessels to ensure timely execution

    SupplyDemand

  • 21

    In

  • 22

    In, 800-1200 tonne lifting category, vessel demand declines significantly post 2016 due to the

    introduction of new foundations, reducing risk of cost overruns by using higher capacity vessels

    Demand-supply analysis for 800-1200 T lifting capacity vessels

    In Vessel Days

    VESSEL DEMAND-SUPPLY

    848

    -433

    -5.000

    3.000

    2.000

    1.000

    0

    -1.000

    -2.000

    -3.000

    -4.000

    -3.212

    20202019

    -3.212

    2018

    2.397

    2017

    -1.617

    20162015

    Scenario 2:

    Most cost effective foundation is considered; including the innovative

    foundations; post 2017*

    Scenario 1:

    Conventional designs are installed in the planned OW farms till 2020

    Su

    pp

    ly

    Sh

    ort

    ag

    e

    Excessiv

    e

    Su

    pp

    ly

    848

    3.000

    -5.000

    1.000

    2.000

    0

    -1.000

    -2.000

    -3.000

    -4.000

    2020

    -2.940

    2019

    -3.212

    2018

    -2.151

    2017

    -1.945

    20162015

    -3.212

    Note: The complete process will take about 5 days on average for installation of conventional foundations with 2.5 days in turbine installation. The standard turbine weights has

    been considered in estimating the demand for turbine installation. Demand from OW O&M has not been considered. Average days for installation of new foundation

    designs is 2. CFG does not require a lifting vessel

    Note 2: Demand for vessels is estimated on the construction/installation start year of the OW farms. Lifting cranes vessels are expected to operate for 10-11 months a year

    Source: MEC+ analysis

    New foundation

    designs considered

  • 23

    In >1200 tonne lifting category, marginal high demand in 2017 could be reduced by new foundation

    designs and no supply risk would be envisaged, preventing the minor delay risk expected

    Demand-supply analysis for > 1200 T lifting capacity vessels

    In Vessel Days

    VESSEL DEMAND-SUPPLY

    3.000

    2.000

    1.000

    0

    -1.000

    -2.000

    -3.000

    -4.000

    -5.000

    2020

    -2.920

    2019

    -2.920

    2018

    -2.199

    2017

    614

    2016

    -2.784

    2015

    -2.920

    Su

    pp

    ly

    Sh

    ort

    ag

    e

    Excessiv

    e

    Su

    pp

    ly

    Scenario 2:

    Most cost effective foundation is considered; including the innovative

    foundations; post 2017*

    Scenario 1:

    Conventional designs are installed in the planned OW farms till 2020

    3.000

    2.000

    1.000

    0

    -1.000

    -2.000

    -3.000

    -4.000

    -5.000

    2020

    -2.920

    2019

    -2.920

    2018

    -2.920

    2017

    -2.838

    2016

    -2.784

    2015

    -2.920

    Note: The complete process will take about 5 days on average for installation of conventional foundations with 2.5 days in turbine installation. The standard turbine weights has

    been considered in estimating the demand for turbine installation. Demand from OW O&M has not been considered. Average days for installation of new foundation

    designs is 2. CFG does not require a lifting vessel

    Note 2: Demand for vessels is estimated on the construction/installation start year of the OW farms. Lifting cranes vessels are expected to operate for 10-11 months a year

    Source: MEC+ analysis

    New foundation

    designs considered

  • 24

    Abbreviations used

    OW Offshore Wind

    EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction

    T ton (= 1000 kg)

    TP Transition piece

    EUR Euro

    MP Monopiles

    J Jackets

    CFG CraneFree Gravity

    MSB Mono Suction Bucket

    SBJ Suction Bucket Jacket

    m metre

    KM Kilometre

    NM Nautical mile

    GW/MW Giga / Mega Watt

    All numbers are in European number format

    APPENDIX

  • 25

    References and Disclaimer

    This report has been prepared by MEC Intelligence using a wide range of resources and databases. MEC Intelligences internal databases on OW farms and OW installation vessels have been the base for the analysis. Extensive secondary research through continues wind industry monitoring through news and press

    releases, primary research with OW EPC contractors, foundation designers, vessel operators and independent OW experts in the industry have all contributed to

    the depth of the analysis conducted.

    For any further queries, please contact:

    Jacob Jensen Sidharth Jain

    ([email protected]) ([email protected])

    MEC Intelligence Denmark MEC Intelligence India

    Nordre Fasanvej 113, 2 112, Udyog Vihar Phase 4

    2000 Frederiksberg 122015 Gurgaon

    Copenhagen, Denmark Haryana, India

    www.mecintelligence.com www.mecintelligence.com

    Disclaimer

    The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. MEC Intelligence disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy,

    completeness or adequacy of such information. MEC Intelligence shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or

    for the interpretation thereof. Therefore MEC is not liable for any indirect, incidental, consequential damage or loss of revenues or profits in any case.

    APPENDIX

  • 26

    MEC+ experience and resources are a valuable asset for insights in offshore wind strategy decisionsMEC EXPERIENCE QUALITY ASSURANCE ON CRITICAL DECISIONS

    MEC+ provides insights by combining its granular data, cost and forecasting models, and primary information along with deep experience and understanding

    of players and concepts. Client assurance is guaranteed in the results with high-touch transparent processes.

    MEC+ has done more than 60 analyses in the offshore wind industry covering demand, supply, business models for contracting strategies, WTG, foundations,

    cables, vessels, installation concepts, and O&M

    Expert contacts

    Our work has led to a strong network of

    relations with industry experts who have

    deep offshore experience.

    Relevant experience & Concepts

    We have worked extensively on and

    developing concepts within Cost of

    Energy, Pipeline, Procurement, ,

    construction management and O&M.

    Our reputation and trust has been

    built on our knowledge and very

    structured and transparent process.

    -

    Farm Level Data (Operation) and Proven

    cost and forecasting models

    We have an extensive library of in-house and

    high-quality third-party offshore wind data

    which we update regularly 1) wind farms, 2) turbine technology 3)foundation & electrical

    systems technology 4) historic costs and

    benchmarks 5) cost and forecasting models

    -MEC+ approach

    leverages the rich

    resources that the

    firm has access to

  • 27

    The team at MEC Intelligence has published industry leading reports on the maritime, energy and clean-tech industries.

    In addition, multiple insights have been published to provide perspectives on the market.

    MEC Intelligence || Offshore Wind ReportsMEC WIND REPORTS