[Free Release] LED Industry outlook in 2011

19 November 2010| Page 1

LED Industry Outlook in 2011

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LED Industry

Outlook in 2011

Roger Chu

02 Nov. 2010




Our Research Department

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Subject Report




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Update Frequency: Quarterly

Report Format: PDF & Excel

LEDinside-Silver Member Service

Quarterly Price Information (EXCEL)

Netbook/Notebook Application

Mobile Backlight Application

Large-sized Backlight (TV/Monitor) Application

Lighting (High Power) Application

Quarterly Market Trend (PDF)

Lighting Market Overview and Forecast

Backlight Market Overview and Forecast

Real-time Market Update (PDF)

Show Reports

Product Applications

Technology Development

Others

Back





Update Frequency: Quarterly

Report format: Excel

Gold Member Service

Worldwide LED Market Forecast and Summary

WW High Brightness LED Market Forecast(Annual)

Worldwide LED Demand Forecast

Mobile Application

Medium-Large Display Backlight Application

Lighting Application Forecast

Automotive Lighting Application Forecast

Signs and Traffic Signals Forecast

Other Application Forecast

Worldwide LED Supply Forecast

Equipment Maker

Chip Maker

Pkg Maker

Cost Analysis Comapre to Traditional Light Source

Price Forecast in White LED

Mobile ,NB, Monitor,TV, Lighting Application




Subject Report

Number of LED Chip Enterprises by Year

38

1317 17

2026 29

3238

46

64

75

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

1H

10

Ente

rprise N

um

ber




Outline

1) LED Industry Overview

2) LED Supply Side Forecast

3) LED Demand Side Forecast

4) Competitions Between LED Industry




LED Industry Overview




Worldwide LED Revenue Ranking

USA

10%

Europe

12%

Japan

26%Korea

23%

Taiwan

19%

China

10%

WW LED Revenue in 2010 : $12.7 bn Breakdown By Region

USA

9%Europe

13%

Japan

27%Korea

24%

Taiwan

21%

China

6%

HB LED Revenue in 2010 : $8.6 bn Breakdown By Region




0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mobile appliance Large display backlight

Lighting Automotive

Signs & Signal Other

Worldwide HB LED Market Forecast

2010~2014 CAGR 17%

HB LED Market Forecast (2010~2014)HB LED Market By Application (2010)

HB LED Market By Application (2014)

Mobile

appliance

16%

Large display

backlight

33%Lighting

21%

Automotive

11%

Signs &

Signal

10%

Other

9%

Mobile

appliance

5%

Large display

backlight

29%

Lighting

43%

Automotive

11%

Signs &

Signal

7%

Other

5%




LED Supply Side Forecast




Background of MOCVD Equipment Subsidy Policies in China

Self-sufficiency rate of China’s chip enterprises is quite low

LED demand in China surged. Self-sufficiency rate of China’s LED chips is only 47%. Hence,

developing epitaxial wafer / chip technology and increasing self-sufficiency rate of LED chips are the

major objectives in LED development for China’s government.

Bright future in LED application market

Except for a great potential in the general lighting market, new LED applications are discovered.

Official performance index

As the green energy industry is greatly supported by the China government, the LED industry is seen

as an important achievement.

By providing investment incentive policies, LED chip enterprises which have advanced technological

know-how are expected to set up plants in China. (Yangzhou-Forepi), other local governments have

also attracted the investment of leading LED chip manufacturers.




Taiwan’s Enterprises Gain Subsidies and Close Interaction

Investor Company Type Notes

Epistar

Changzhou Jingpin Taiwan-capital

Xiamen Epi-sky Taiwan-capital

Dalian Jingtian China-Taiwan joint ventureJVS with Dalian Zhongjian

and Shanxi Guangyu

Shandong Guanquan Taiwan-capital JVS with UMC

Unilite Dongguan Unilite Taiwan-capital

Formosa

EpitaxyJiangsu Canyang

China-Taiwan joint

venture

JVS with AmTran, Unity

and etc

Genesis Dongguan Jingrui Taiwan-capital

Kunshan Genesis Taiwan-capital

Arima Shanxi Changzhi ArimaChina-Taiwan joint

venture

Opto tech Ningbo Opto tech Taiwan-capital

Powerchip Xuzhou Jingwang Taiwan-capital

Walsin

LihwaXian Walsin Lihwa Taiwan-capital

TyntekWuhan Yuanmao

TBC (project by Fuzhou Tyntek) Taiwan-capital

Bright LED

ElectronicsDongguan Gaohui

China-Taiwan joint

venture

AUO Lextar Taiwan-capital

Long term:

50 MOCVD units

Changzhou Jingpin:

30 MOCVD units

Shandong Guanquan :

Over 10 MOCVD units

Long term:

50 MOCVD units

Long term:

100 MOCVD units

Long term:

100 MOCVD units

2011 plan:

50 MOCVD units




Greatest Growth on LED Capacities in China

700 MOCVD sets are planed in 2010.

MOCVD sets in 1H10 were in S.Korea and Taiwan.

MOCVD sets plan to be installed in China in 2H10.

MOCVD total installation volume (In Gan Base) MOCVD installation volume in 2010

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Korea

Europe

US

Japan

China

Taiwan

Taiwan

32%

China

26%

Japan

7%

US

3%

Europe

1%

Korea

31%




LED Demand Side Forecast-Backlight Market




LED Application Trend for TV Backlight, 42”

- Luminous improvement and cost reduction continue to drive the market growth.




Thick or Thin Films? Which Conducts TV Backlight ?

Direct Type

Edge Type

Diffuser Plate

Reflector

Optical Film

LCD Panel

Reflector

Optical Film

LGP

2H10~1H11

LED PKG 32*32*1.65mm

32*28(Sharp)

Diffuser 6.0t

LCM 20~25mm

2H09-

2H10

2011

LED PKG 5630

6046

5630/5620

4014/7020

LGP 3.0~3.5t 2.0~2.5t

LCM 10mm 9 mm




LED Backlight Application Forecast

15%, and 18% respectively for LCD monitor and LCDTV in 2010

Driven by further cost and green consciousness, the penetration rate for LCD Monitor and LCD

TV are projected to reach 55% and 43% respectively for 2011.

Edge-lit backlight TV is dominating the market, while direct-lit backlight is slowly emerging.




LED Demand Side Forecast-Lighting Market




Overview of LED Lighting Market in 2010

Architectural

45%

Replacement

14%

Retail display

12%

Commercial/indust

rial

11%

Outdoor area

9%

Consumer

portable

4%

Entertainment

2%Residential

1%

Other

2%

The HB LED for Lighting ,Market size in 2010 is $1.8 bn, the LED usage volume reaches 7.5bn pcs.

High Power LED accounts for 76%, viewed from package type.

The greatest application segment is the architectural lighting, but the output value of the main

lighting is still at low level.

HB LED Output Value in 2010 for Lighting

-By Pkg Type HB LED Output Value in 2010 for Lighting

-By Application




LED Lighting Application Forecast

The LED lighting market is projected to grow from US$1,017M in 2009 to US$8,175M in 2014, at

CAGR of 52%.

The highest growth rate will be coming from the replacement lamp, at CAGR of 92%, and we

have witnessed smooth adoption in Japan market.

The outdoor lighting will be evolving regularly as technology advance, though there are some

aggressive expectation, the projected CAGR is 43%.




Replacement-Momentum of LED light bulbs decreased in Japan

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

LED CFL Incandescent

ＬＥＤ電球は昨年夏にシャープが従来品の半額以下の製品を発売して以降、家電各社が同水準の価格で次々に販売。調査会社のＧｆＫジャパンによると、電球市場に占めるＬＥＤ電球の割合は、個数ベースで０９年９月の約３％から１０年９月は約１９％に拡大している.

(2010年10月5日.東京朝刊)

High Power LED Price for per klm

20 18

16 15

14 12 10.90

9.22 8.44 7.78 7.22 7.08 6.846.16

0

5

10

15

20

25

1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10

USD

Price High Price Low

LED Bulb penetration rate in Japan




Replacement-LED Light Bulb Is Emerging in the Long Term

LED bulb is projected to growth from less then 2% light bulb market this year to more than 10% by

2013.Driven by performance improvement, cost reduction and government policy, LED bulb is

emerging aggressively.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

5000

10000

15000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Incandescent Lamp Fluorescent Lamp

LED Lamp Others

LED Lamp Penetration Rate

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

LED AC/DC Driver Optics Heat Sink

Housing E27 Socket Others

3X

Demand is driven by cost reduction LED bulb is emerging in the long term

LED Bulb

Retail Price

CFL Bulb




China40%

Taiwan1%USA

16%

Europe16%

Japan10%

Others18%

Outdoor Lighting – LED Streetlights Yet To Be Supported By Policies

China: Total LED streetlights installation volume in 2009 was around 250K, 287K in 2010.

Global LED streetlight installations in 2009 amounted to about 610 K units.

LED streetlight installation is estimated to reach 743 K units by 2010.

Source: LEDinside

Global Streetlight Installation Volume LED streetlights market shares in 2010

Source: LEDinside

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

unit:K

Quantity of newly installed LED streetlights




Competitions Between LED Industry




LED Supply Chain for LED Backlight TV

Korean LED vendors enjoy more stable adoptive application from well implemented

vertical integration.

More challenges for less vertical integrated Japan and Taiwan vendors on resource

alignment and cost pressure.




USA

LED Lighting Competitive Landscape

Chip

LEDs

Bulb

EU

Module

Osra

m

System

Traditional

lluminaire co.

Zum

tobel

Philip

s

GE

Cooper

Panasonic

Toshib

a

NE

C

Everlig

h

t

Delta

Japan Korea TWN

Cre

e

Sam

sung L

ED

LG

Innote

k

Seoul S

em

iconducto

r

Lexta

r(A

UO

)

CM

I

Epistar

Forepi

Nuventix

Acuity

Okam

ura

Sharp

Citiz

en

Rohm

TG

Nic

hia

Kum

ho

TR

ILU

X

iGuzzin

i

Schre

der

Hubbell

LED focused co.

Edis

on

Oth

ers

BridgeLux

China

Mid

ea

(美的

照明

)

Lite

On

Lots companies are participating in LED luminaire globally

Many companies are vertically integrated from chip to luminaire system

Kic

hle

r

NV

C(雷

士)

Hem

ligh

ting

(華而

美)

Ya

min

g(上

海亞

明)




LED Policies Drive the Worldwide LED Market

USA:

1. DOE “Next Generation Lighting Initiative” (NGLI) to

support the R&D of SSL

2. 50 million USD from 2007-2013

3. Total 350 million USD for R&D investment in SSL

4. Reach 219 lm/w, 1000 lm /1USD in 2020

(March 2010)

TW: 83 million USD investment

in LED for five years (2010-2015)

Source: LEDinside (October 2010)

China:

1. 12th Five-Year plan focus on green energy

2. Industry scale > 500 B RMB in 2015

3. LED Chip Self-sufficiency rate 70% in 2015.

4. 2-3 large scale LED chip companies in 2015.

5. 3-5 leading SSL application companies in 2015.

Japan: 2.90 billion USD

is requested for

promoting the LED

market

(June 2010)

Korea: 20 million

USD for LED(2011)




Thank You for Your Attention!

TrendForce/ LEDinside

http://www.ledinside.com

-----------------------------------------

Joanne Wu

Research Assistant

[email protected]

TrendForce/ LEDinside

http://www.ledinside.com

-----------------------------------------

儲于超 Roger Chu

Research Director

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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[Free Release] LED Industry outlook in 2011