Future projection of surface ozone in East Asia

with CMAQ and REAS inventory

October 17, 2006 CMAS 2006 conference

Toshimasa Ohara, Jun-ichi Kurokawa, Hiroshi Tanimoto (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

Kazuyo Yamaji, Hajime Akimoto (Frontier Research Center for Global Change) Itsushi Uno (RIAM, Kyushu University)

Nobuhiro Horii (Institute of Developing Economies)

Background & Key Questions

20

30

40

50

60

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

Year

(pp

b)Ｏ

３

Ryouri Yonaguni Happo

O3 in Japanese sites

Surface ozone in Japanese sites are increasing.

What is influence of increasing emissions on evolution of O3 ? What is the impact of changing emissions on O3 in future ?

Asian emissions are rapidly growing and will increase in future.

Future projection of surface ozone over East Asia. To do so,

Emission

inventory

(REAS)

O3 meas. at

multiple sites

Regional CTM

(CMAQ)

- historical, current, and future emissions

- validation - improvement

Objectives & Approach

Ozone simulation between 1980 and 2003 with CMAQ and emission inventory (REAS). Validation of modeled seasonal and long-term variations by ground-based observations. Future projection of O3 based on emission scenarios for 2010 and 2020.

(1) Emission inventory (REAS) & future projection

(2) Ozone simulation from 1980 to 2003

(3) Future changes of surface ozone

(4) Summary and conclusions

Outline

(1) Emission inventory (REAS)

& future projection

(2) Ozone simulation from 1980 to 2003

(3) Future changes of surface ozone

(4) Summary and conclusions

Outline

●Base year 1995,2000 =>1980～ 2003

●Region South, south-east and east Asia

Regional Emission inventory of Asia (REAS)

NOx SO2 CO CO2 N2O NH3 BC OC CH4 NMVOC

industry

power

transport

domestic

● ● ● ●

●

● ● ● ●

● ● ●

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

● ●

●

● ● ●Natural

Vegetation (including crops)

Natural soils

●● ● ●

Non-combustion

Industrial processes

Oil, solvent etc

● ● ● ●● ●

Anthropogenic

Combustionfossil fuel+ biofuel

AgricultureAgricultural soil

Livestock

Others

Biomass burning

Waste treatment(landfill)

Completed

Flow chart of estimation for emission

China

Fuel combustion

Energy

（ IEA 、 UN)

Others

Fuel Consumption Matrix[region, fuel, sector]

Emission Factor Emission control

Emission Matrix[species, region, fuel, sector]

0.5o×0.5°gridded emission

Process & agricultural emission

Population Road NW

Activity Energy

（ IEA 、 China)

Emission factor

10.7 Mt/year (1.0) 16.3 Mt/year (1.5) 25.1 Mt/year (2.3)

1980 1990 2000

Trend of NOx emissions in Asia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Year

NO

x [k

t/ye

ar]

Other South AsiaIndiaSoutheast AsiaOther East AsiaJapanChina

Emission scenarios in China

Scenario Concept Energy demand

Environmental Policy

Reference Sustainable Middle Positive

Policy Succeed Environment

Low Highly positive

Policy Failed Current High Current

Future prediction of air pollution

●Projected year: 　 2010, 2020 ( ← base year 2000)

●Scenario: China (Reference, Policy fail, Policy Succeed)

Others (Reference)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000REAS_REF REAS_PSC REAS_PFCIIASA_CLE IIASA_MFR Streets et alvan Aardenne Hao, Tian & Lu

Recent growth exceeds “Policy failed” case !

Chinese NOx emissions up to 2020

Change of NOx emissions in future

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

2000 PSC REF PFC PSC REF PFC

NO

x (k

t/ye

ar)

2010 2020

1.0 　　 　 1.17 1.24 1.35

1.26 1.44 1.83

Asian NOx emissions

China Japan Other East Asia Southeast Asia India Other South Asia

・ Asian NOx emissions will be growing in future in any scenario.・ Chinese NOx, which dominate Asian growth, depends strongly on scenario.・ Recent growth in China exceeds “the worst case”.

Change of NMVOC emissions in future

NMVOC/NOx

2000 7.0

2020PSC

12.3

2020REF

11.4

2020PFC

8.4

NMVOC/NOx in Chinese emissions

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

2000 PSC REF PFC PSC REF PFC

NM

VO

C (

kt/y

ear)

2010 2020

1.0 　　 　 1.41 1.52 1.60

1.97 2.38 2.62

China Japan Other East Asia Southeast Asia India Other South Asia

Asian NMVOC emissions

(mol/mol)

・ Asian NMVOC emissions will be growing in future in any scenario.・ Dependence of NMVOC emissions on scenario is lower than of NOx.・ However, NMVOC/NOx depends strongly on scenario.

(1) Emission inventory (REAS) & future projection

(2) Ozone simulation from 1980 to 2003

(3) Future changes of surface ozone

(4) Summary and conclusions

Outline

Outline of CMAQ simulation Base-model ・ CMAQ ver.4.4 Emission inventory (EI) ・ REAS ・ TRACE-P biomass burning Meteorology ・ RAMS with NCEP Global analysis Chemistry ・ SAPRC99 scheme Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions ・ CHASER (Global CTM; Sudo et al., 2002) Validation ・ extensive surface observations

Multi-year simulations with year- dependent EI and meteorology. Future simulations with future EI and fixed meteorology for 2000.

HAP

RIS

RYOSADOKI

TSM

YON

OGS

TAP

ONW

Ozone station

Domain: 6400km×5600km (78×68 grids)

Horizontal ： 80km×80km

Vertical ： 14layer （ RAMS=23 layer ） up to 23km

Ozone stations by EANET & WMO

JUNMAR AUG SEPFEB MAYAPR JUL OCT NOV

0

50

100

[ppbv]

RISHIRICMAQOBS.

0

50

100TAPPI

[ppbv]

JAN DEC

100 200 300

SADOSEKI HAPPO

OKI TSUSHIMA

EBINO HEDO

YONAGUNI OGASAWARA

0

50

100

0

50

100

0

50

100

0

50

100

0

50

100

0

50

100

0

50

100

0

50

100

100 200 300

JUNMAR AUG SEPFEB MAYAPR JUL OCT NOVJAN DEC

Validation of simulated temporal variations R=0.5

R=0.6 R=0.6

R=0.7 R=0.7

R=0.9 R=0.8

R=0.7 R=0.9

②① R=0.3

③ ④

⑤ ⑥

⑦ ⑧

⑨

CMAQObs.

0

Yamaji et al. (2006)

Impacts of ozone from Asian continent (June)

Contribution of Asian continent = 1/10 ~ 1/5

Tanimoto et al. (2005)

Ozone from Asian continentMonthly ozone concentration

> 60 ppb 5~15 ppb

Japanese O3 is strongly influenced by that produced from Asian continent.

- 4

- 2

0

2

4

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002- 4

0

4

8

12

Long-term variations ofsurface ozone over Japan & Chinese emissions

Year

d(O

3)

= (

O3) y

ear–

(O

3)

1990

(pp

b)

d (Emis.) = E

year – E1990 M

t yr -1

Modeled O3 over Japan

Observed O3 over Japan(average of 350 monitoring stations)

NOx & NMVOC emissions in China

・ CMAQ can reproduce the long-term trend of surface O3 over Japan.

・ O3 trend in Japan is correlated with that of Chinese emissions.

(1) Emission inventory (REAS) & future projection

(2) Ozone simulation from 1980 to 2003

(3) Future changes of surface ozone

(4) Summary and conclusions

Outline

2000 2020PFC

2020PFC - 2000

Quite rapid increase in Central and south China !!!

ppm

ppm

Future change of surface ozone

Zonal mean of emission growth

NOx

NMVOC

Changes of surface ozone under three scenarios

Zonal mean of O3 growth

JUN JUN JUN

YEAR

YEAR

YEAR

・ Asian O3 in future depends on emission scenario.

・ In REF and PFC scenarios, O3 evolutions in East Asia are predicted.

- 4

- 2

0

2

4

6

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020- 5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Trends and future changes of surface ozone over Japan and Chinese

emissions

d(Emis.) = E

year – E1990 M

t yr -1d(O

3)

= (

O3) y

ear–

(O

3)

1990

(pp

b)

Modeled O3 over Japan PF

CREFPSC

NOx & NMVOC emissions in China

Year・ In future, surface O3 over Japan is proportional with

Chinese emissions.

- 3

0

3

6

- 50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300R (Emission) %

d (O

3) p

pb

NOx VOCPastFuture

High sensitive to NOx

Low sensitive to VOC

d(Emis.)/E1990 %

・ O3 growth seems to be more sensitive to Chinese emissions for NOx than for NMVOC.

Frequency of hours with O3 exceeding standard

BJ SH HK KT KSPerc

en

tag

e o

f h

ou

rs e

xceed

ing

O3

sta

nd

ard

(60 p

pb

)

・ In future, number of hours exceeding O3 standard will increase over East Asia. 　　　　　　 However, its percentage depends on emission scenario.

Summary and conclusions● Increases of Asian emissions are continuing at present.

(e.g.) NOx increased 3 times from 1980 to 2003.

● Asian emissions will increase in future, but it depends on the scenarios.

● REAS/RAMS/CMAQ can catch the feature of seasonal and long-term variations of O3 observation.

● Model with an emission scenario predicts that future O3 may be an important environmental issue in Asia.

● Grow of Chinese emissions influences the evolution of O3 over Japan. This will be going in future.

Chinese energy consumption in three scenarios

0

20000

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100000

120000

2000 PSC REF PFC PSC REF PFC

Ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

(PJ/

yr) Domestic (others)

Domestic (biofuel)Domestic (coal)TransportIndustry (others)Industry (oil)Industry (coal)Power plant (others)Power plant (coal)

2010 2020

PJ/yr

1.0 　　　　 1.22 1.30 1.35

1.39 1.63 1.77

・ Chinese energy consumption will be growing in future in any scenario.・ Increasing rate strongly depends on scenario.