German Aerospace Center – Institute of Transport Research, Berlin-Adlershof Les “mobiles” – vont-ils changer notre mobilité? Prof. Dr. Barbara Lenz Centre

German Aerospace Center – Institute of Transport Research, Berlin-Adlershof

Les “mobiles” – vont-ils changer notre mobilité?

Prof. Dr. Barbara Lenz

Centre Allemand de l’ Aérospace (DLR) – Institut de Recherche en Transport Berlin-Adlershofhttp://ivf.dlr.de

Séminaire du GRT, Namur18 Avril 2005

GRT Namur, 18/4/2005

The „Dream of ICT Use“

- having more time

- living in nice places ….. but : not being separated from the world !

NEGROPONTE 1995:

“In the digital life, it is not important to be in a certain place at a certain time, because places will be ‘transferable’.”


What are the consequences of anytime - anywhere?

multiplication of working places

fragmentation of working times

independence from time regulations

increased options for the performance of activities

decreased correlation between place or time and activity

increased use of ICT and transportation [technologies]

... and what makes this worth mentioning?


The history of time use: Time as a circle and a sequence of “events”

time as a circle of repeated events

– flood of the Nile river

– seasons

– rebirth

time as a sequence of unique events with a beginning and an end

– history

– life and death

– the universe


The history of time use: The organization of work as a pulse generator

1913:

introduction ofthe assembly linein the FORD car factory


The definite use of places: “Tell me where you are and I tell you what you do”


Impact of communication evolution on travel behaviour – working people

Hypothesis

If ICT had an impact on the work related behaviour of people, the following characteristics should show up:

concerning the activity “work”

- flexible working time, e.g. professional work on week-ends or while traveling

- different working places, e.g. home, train, airplane

concerning work related travel behaviour

- intensive use of ICT

- frequent traveling


panel survey

use of an existing panel of the marketresearch institute TNS Emnid

written survey

Five thematic fields: communication, mobility, work, shopping, leisure

sample size: 3,500 people

data collection: May and June 2003

representative for all German-speaking residents of the Federal Republic of Germany aged 14 and up ( -> 64.1 million people)

results of extensive basic questionnaire

Empirical work: used data


Methodological Approach

Total: n=3,500

Employed personsn=1,612

Data setGENERAL IDEA

Signs of impact of ICT use on activities

ACTIVITY “WORK”

Work offers particular opportunities to use “new” times and places

ANALYSIS

Search for structures within the data that indicate “new”

behavior for the activity workCluster analysis


Result of data clustering: Behavioral types

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

45,0

50,0

Index: tripsto workplace

Index:business

trips

Workinghours per

week (total)

Weeklyworkinghours at

home

Usageindex:

Internet

Usageindex:Mobilephone

Usageindex:Laptop

Cluster 1

Cluster 2

Cluster 3

Cluster 4


Cluster 1: „Conventional Full Time Workers“ (n = 821)

Cluster 2: „Mobile Phone Fragmenters“ (n = 264)

Cluster 3: „Conventional Part Time Workers“ (n = 266)

Cluster 4: „Mobile Computer Fragmenters“ (n = 62)

Characteristics of clusters



Cluster 1: „Conventional Full Time Workers“ (n = 821) 59.1

Cluster 2: „Mobile Phone Fragmenters“ (n = 264) 75.5

Cluster 3: „Conventional Part Time Workers“ (n = 266) 15.0

Cluster 4: „Mobile Computer Fragmenters“ (n = 62) 82.0

Share of men







Education







Household income


Particular ways to perform activities

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

working at home use laptop on travels use mobile phone on travels

Cluster 1

Cluster 2

Cluster 3

Cluster 4


Time windows used for the performance

of activities

Largest time windows have appeared for Cluster 4 for work.

For leisure, too, Cluster 4 is the cluster with the largest time windows for “urban” activities and location independent sports activities.

but: large time windows without ICT use

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

visitin

g fri

ends

visitin

g re

lative

s

resta

uran

t/ pu

b

cinem

a/ th

eatre

takin

g a

walk

mak

ing a

trip

spor

t - lo

catio

n lin

ked

spor

t - lo

catio

n ind

epen

dent

Cluster 1

Cluster 2

Cluster 3

Cluster 4

leisure activities


-2,00

-1,50

-1,00

-0,50

0,00

0,50

Cluster 1

Cluster 2

Cluster 3

Cluster 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

0,00

Self-estimation of behavioral changes: mobile phone

Since I have a mobile phone ...

1 I carry out many things while traveling.

5 I am much more on the road because one can reach me anywhere.

7 I am more relaxed concerning appointments as I can let people know in case I am getting late.

Disagreement is predominating.

Working behaviour has changed, but travel behaviour has not.

Being in time for appointments represents still a social norm even for clusters 2 and 4.


-1,40

-1,20

-1,00

-0,80

-0,60

-0,40

-0,20

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

Cluster 1

Cluster 2

Cluster 3

Cluster 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

0,00

Self-estimation of behavioral changes: use of the Internet

1 The Internet allows me to be more flexible so that I can do things at any time of the day.

2 I try to complete as many things as possible via Internet to save time.

6 The Internet helps me to carry out things much faster than I could do before .

8 I do several things deliberately via Internet to save travel.

9 Today, my days are more filled up than they were 5 years ago.

Only cluster 4 confirms behavioural change.

Internet is not used to save time, but it saves time “automatically”.

Only cluster 4 uses the Internet deliberately to save travel..


-2,00

-1,50

-1,00

-0,50

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

F 29_1 F 29_2 F 29_3 F 29_4 F 29_5 F 29_6 Cluster 1

Cluster 2

Cluster 3

Cluster 4

Self-estimation of behavioral changes: use of the Internet for work

1 When there is a lot of work I take some of it to my home.

2 Also when I did not yet have a computer, I worked at home.

3 Since I have owned a computer, I work at home more often .

4 Sometimes, I take work home because I prefer to work at home.

5 If I work at home, it is important for me to have Internet connection.

6 I can do my work only at my regular physical working place.

For all clusters Internet use continues existing routines .

The use of the option to work elsewhere than at the “regular” working place is only [very slightly!] used by cluster 4. It relies on Internet availability and reduced physical constraints.


Young people travelling and using ICT

textextext


Some General Trends concerning Travel and ICT Use

changes in young people‘s travel behaviour in Germany :

– increasing use of the car as passenger and/or as driver (SCHOLL 2003)

– decreasing age for acquiring the driver‘s licence (HEYNE 2003)

– mobility becoming a crucial lifestyle element (KEMMING 2003)

development of ICT use – in particular Internet and mobile phone:

– rapid increase of Internet use: 87% of 14-19, 83% of 20-29 (DZFA 4/2004)

– rapid increase in mobile phone availability: 80% of teens own a mobile phone, for more than 90% a mobile phone is available (SHELL 2002)

– communication is the outstanding objective for Internet and mobile phone use (JIM 2003, TULLY 2003)


How to Identify Impact of ICT on Travel Behaviour?

(1) How can ICT use affect travel behaviour?

– by modifying the way people travel

– by modifying the way how activities are performed

– by modifying the way how activities are planned and organised

(2) Which effects occur specifically for young people?


The Identification Process of the Potential Impact of ICT on Travel Behaviour

purposes of ICT use

[potential] modifica-tion of performance of activities

[potential] modifica-tion of organsiation of activities

[potential] modification of the travel behaviour related to the relevant activities

ICT use activities travel behaviour

activities carried out


The Data Set

– DLR survey carried out by TNS Emnid

– May 12 – June 3, 2003

– 3.500 respondents out of a panel population provided by TNS Emnid

– respondents of an age of 14+

– by measure of age and gender structure of the data set, the data are representative for the German speaking population of 14+ (= 64,1 mill.)

age structure of the sample:14-17 years …..….. 14918-25 years …..….. 33426-34 years …..….. 50335-44 years …..….. 62945-54 years …..….. 61855-64 years …..….. 52265 years or more .. 745

13.8%


The Purposes of ICT Use: Internet Use

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

14-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

age

fre

qu

en

cy

ind

ex

job/education related search for information

private search for information

sending/receiving e-mails

sending SMS

online shopping

online banking

chatting

playing games

surfing without particular motive

software download

organisation of private appointments

organisation of job related appointments


Particular Purposes of Internet Use

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

14-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

age

fre

qu

en

cy

ind

ex

online shopping

online banking




sending SMS


The Purposes of ICT Use: Mobile Phone Use

0

5

10

15

20

25

14-17 18-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

age

fre

qu

en

cy

ind

ex

telephone shopping

telephone banking




sending SMS

playing games


Activity Patterns

only

activ

ities w

ith a

frequency

index

> 2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

14-17 18-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

age

fre

qu

en

cy

ind

ex

working/attending school shopping meeting friends meeting relatives

going to a bar/a restaurant going out for a walk exercising sports going to church


Modification of Activities by Internet Use: Self Estimation of Respondents

applies entirely

applies more or less

does not apply at all

tends not to apply

applies two ways

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

14-17 18-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

age

The internet allows me to be more flexible so that I can do things at other times of day.

I try to complete as many things as possible via internet to save time.

Today I often substitute phone calls by e-mails.

Today I complete a few things that formerly needed to move from home via internet.

I do several things deliberately via internet to save travel.


Modification of Activities by Mobile Phone Use: Self Estimation of Respondents

applies entirely

applies more or less

does not apply at all

tends not to apply

applies two ways

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

14-17 18-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

age

… I complete many things while I am on the road.

… I meet friends more spontaneously.

... I am much more on the road because one can reach me anywhere.

... I change appointments more often.

… I am more relaxed concerning appointments as I can give an information in case I am late.

... I do not need to fix the time and place for appointments when they are made but decide on that later.


Affinity to Transport Modes I like it very much

I don‘t like it at all -2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

14-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

age

car

bicycle

public transport

on foot


Activity Specific Car Use

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

14-17 18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 >65

age

pe

rce

nt

working

shopping in city center

meeting friends


Influencing Variables on Mobile Phone Use by Age Groups

14-29 30-49 50-69Beta Sig Beta Sig Beta Sig

gender (0=female, 1=male) -0,006 0,874 0,066 0,024 * 0,126 0,000 ***age -0,226 0,000 *** -0,181 0,000 *** -0,065 0,080level of formal education 0,028 0,503 0,036 0,218 0,018 0,563household size -0,088 0,170 0,066 0,131 -0,036 0,358household income 0,023 0,645 0,049 0,154 0,040 0,285size of home city 0,098 0,015 * 0,090 0,002 ** 0,051 0,089employment (1=employed, 2=not employed) 0,060 0,242 0,001 0,970 0,081 0,031 *mobility (frequency index) 0,198 0,000 *** 0,217 0,000 *** 0,154 0,000 ***


Conclusions

How does ICT use affect travel behaviour of young people?

– by modifying the way people travel

a tendency towards an increasing car use because of more flexibility can be assumed but not be proofed by the data

– by modifying the activities that make people travel

effects remain on a low level

– by modifying the way how activities are performed

the organisation of activities is modified in particular by the use of the mobile phone; the majority of young people in Germany, however, do not estimate that their travel behaviour has changed substantially

The scale of ICT use is much larger for young people, but its relationship to mobility is almost the same throughout the investigated age groups.

Documents

German Aerospace Center – Institute of Transport Research, Berlin-Adlershof Les “mobiles” – vont-ils changer notre mobilité? Prof. Dr. Barbara Lenz Centre