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© 2009 IBM Corporation
Global Technology Outlook
for Smarter Planet
한국IBM 연구소 이강윤
Nov, 2009
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
1
세상의 변화 - 이노베이션의 주기
도입기 확산기
Irruption
The Industrial
Revolution
Age of Steam
and Railways
Age of Steel, Electricity
and Heavy Engineering
Age of Oil, Automobiles
and Mass Production
Age of Information and
Telecommunications
Frenzy Synergy Maturity
Panic
1797
Depression
1893
Crash
1929
Dot.com
Collapse
1
2
3
4
5
Panic
1847
1771
1829
1875
1908
1971
1873
1920
1974
1829
붕괴기
Coming period of
Institutional AdjustmentNow
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
2
이노베이션이 전개되는 환경 - 기술의 범용화
신기술 (스마트 오브젝트)
모든 것을 연결하는 인터넷
누구나 사용 가능한 슈퍼컴퓨팅
급증하는 비즈니스 정보
협업을 통한 창조
언제나 확보 가능한 전문인력
가상 기업
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
3
• “The Globally Integrated Enterprise”, Foreign Affairs, June 2006
• Samuel J. Palmisano, Chairman of the Board and CEO in IBM Corporation
글로벌 통합(Global Integration)을 위한 핵심 원칙
- 업무가 통합되는 과정에 대한 3가지 동력
경제의 논리(Economics): 노동시장을 포함한 잠재적 수익
전문적 지식(Expertise): 새로운 지식, 아이디어와 혁신에 대한 접근이 가능
개방형 비즈니스 환경(Open business Environments): 시스템의 개방 및 표준화 정도
이노베이션이 전개되는 환경 – 시장의 글로벌화
“평평해진 세계”에 의해서, 글로벌 교역, 자본,
그리고 정보의 교류가 빠른 속도로 강화됨에
따라, 비즈니스 가치가 발생하는 장소(where)와
발생하는 방법(how)이 급격하게 변화하고 있다.
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
4
21세기의 이노베이션
■과거 어느 때보다 급속한 속도로 이루어진다
■글로벌한 규모로 동시에 이루어진다
■공개 표준을 기반으로 이루어진다
■광범위한 다학제간, 전문가간 협업에 의해 이루어진다
비즈니스 프로세스를 혁신
사회 전반에 걸쳐 실질적인 혜택 창출
개인의 생활을 질적으로 변화
기술의 범용화
Vertical Businesses
시장의 글로벌화
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
5
Changes in
Information Technology
Computing can be performed
anywhere
Changes in
World Markets
Work flows to where it can best be
done
Changes in
Client Needs
시장과 고객의 새로운 변화
시장과 고객의 변화에 맞는 새로운 비즈니스 모델과 새로운 IT 아키텍쳐 요구
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
6
국제 기업다국적 기업
글로벌 통합 기업
19C - 1914 (1차 세계대전) 1914 (1차 세계대전) – Now 2000 ~
기업의 독립성 강화, 해외 시장
개척
기존 무역경로 차단,
보호무역주의 확산
자유무역주의, 국제투자 확대, IT
혁명, 표준화된 기술 및 프로세스
확산
국제 교역로 개척을 통해
원자재를 수입하여 제품
수출
본사 조직과 기능을 지역에
중복 배치
Local 시장 내에서 생산, 판매
국경 초월한 최적의 Operation에
초점
‘What to make’에서 ‘How to
make’로 관점 전환
본사에서 전 업무 수행
수직적 통합
Open Networked
수평적, 글로벌 하게
Operation 통합
지역별 Mini-companies
지역/권역별 Operation구조
배경
특징
글로벌 비즈니스 모델의 이노베이션
Changes in world markets : Work flow의 변화
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
7
글로벌 기업의 자원에 대한 효율적인 운영과 고객에 대한 효과적으로 지원을 위한 모델로 전략, 비즈니스모델을 재설정하고, 이를 토대로 한 프로세스 표준화 및 IT 시스템 자동화를 구현
시장접점 조직의프로세스 및 역할 조정
신속한 의사결정과 현지시장 대응력 강화
시장접점 조직특화구현(Go-To-
Market)
지원 조직의 표준화, 글로벌 톻합
규모의 경제를 통한 비용절감 및 업무 전문화
공동 서비스(Shared Service) 구현
글로벌 관점에서 가장 최적의위치에 통합하여 전세계에 서비스
비용 및 숙련도의 지역별 차이를이용
글로벌 비즈니스디자인
Operational HierarchyGIE 모델
표준화
자동화
글로벌 통합 기업(Globally Integrated Enterprise) 모델
Changes in world markets : GIE
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
8
Changes in information technology : Open standard
다양한 Hardware의 표준화, 가상화를 통한 글로벌 인프라의 통합기술, 새로운 Blade Center 기술 등 Computing Power의 공유, 개방 및 가상화 환경 구현을 위한 기술개발
IBM Blade CenterPowerVM™ Virtualization on
IBM Power Systems
Linux® on POWER
IBM System z10
Cutting-edge, industry leading
Offerings
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
9
새로운 이노베이션 아젠다
- Smarter Planet -
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
10
글로벌로 통합된 세상의 현실
금융시장 위험의확산 및
자본 접근의 제한
?
미래의 불확실성
에너지 부족과환경 문제
정보의 홍수
복잡한 공급망 및소비자 파워 증대
신흥경제권의부상
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
11
비효율과 낭비가 가져오는 이슈들
금융위기로 인한추산 손실액
4조1천억 달러
교통혼잡비용12.8조원
대기오염피해비용10조원
의사결정의 비효율성48%만 정보 신뢰59%는 정보 부족
100년간물사용 증가율
6배
공급망비효율로 인한
손실
400억 달러
낭비되는 전력1,700억
kwh
의료비 과다지출로빈곤층 전락
1억명
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
12
보다 똑똑해지는 변화가 필요합니다
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
13
세상은 점점
기능화되고 있습니다
세상은 점점
서로 연결되고 있습니다
실질적으로 모든 사물, 프로세스 및 작업방식이 점점
지능화되고 있습니다
모든 자연 시스템과 사람이 만든 시스템이 서로 연결되고기능화되며 지능화되고 있습니다
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
14
똑똑한 지구 : 새로운 생각과 행동으로 보다 효율적이고생산적이며 응답성이 뛰어난 스마트 시스템과 프로세스를만들 수 있습니다
GREEN
AND BEYOND
SMART
WORK
NEW
INTELLIGENCE
DYNAMIC
INFRASTRUCTURE
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
15
IBM Research: Major Initiatives for a Smarter Planet
Nanotechnology
Hybrid Systems Stream Computing
Cloud Computing
Business Analytics Mobile Web
Services Quality SmartWork
New Intelligence
Green & Beyond
Dynamic
Infrastructure
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
16
New Intelligence :Financial Crisis & Regulation
0
as of 2009-02-02
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
800
10000
Dow Jones
S&P 500
March 2007
Subprime Crisis
March 2000
Dotcom Bubble
Oct 19 1987
Black Monday22.6% drop in one day
Oct 29 1929
Black Tuesday
Great Depression
1907 Crisis led to the
funding of the Fed
Bank
1933 Glass-Steagal
Banking Act
Splits financial services
into:
- commercial banking and
- investment banking
2002 Sarbanes Oxley
2004 Basel II
1940 Investment Act
regulates mutual funds
1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (allowing
financial holding companies to have
both banking and investment - often
called Citigroup Authorization Act)
2000 Commodities Futures Act
contained "Enron Loophole" banning
regulation of credit default swaps
2004 SEC allows five (and only five) banks to lever up 30 or even 40 to 1. All others
are only allowed 12 to 1. The five: Bear, Lehman, Merrill, Morgan and Goldman.
Nationalized
Failed
Acquired
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
17
Consumability definition from Outside-in Software Development, Kessler & Sweitzer, 2008
Higher
Potential
Business
Value
Consumability is about minimizing the ba
rriers to value attainment, and enabling s
marter decisions
ConsumabilityIndustry templates
Usability
Understandability
Reusability
Capability
It works
Availability
Data and
computing
are on hand
New Intelligence – 분석의 소비성 확장
분석은 더 이상 기업, 기관, 분석가들만을 위한 것이 아니라 최종 소비자가 합리적인 의사결정을 위해 사용하는 일종의서비스가 될 것입니다.
Based on: Competing on Analytics, Davenport and Harris, 2007
Co
mp
etitive
Ad
va
nta
ge
무엇이 일어났는가?
Standard Reporting
얼마나 많이, 얼마나 자주,
어디에서?
Ad hoc reporting
문제가 정확하게 무엇인가?
Query/drill down
행동이 필요할까?
Alerts
..하다면 무엇이일어날까? Simulation
다음에 무엇이일어날까?
Machine Learning
우리는 어떻게 최고의 결과를 얻을 수있을까?
Optimization
우리는 어떻게 다양성의 효과를 포함한 최고의 결과를 얻을 수 있을까Stochastic Optimization
분석“미래 지향적”
리포팅“과거 지향적”
Degree of Complexity
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
18
비즈니스 룰을 이용한자동화된 결정
Crowd Computing
Interactive Visualization
Semantic Technologies
데이터와 분석적인모델을 위한 특정산업
템플릿
Crowd Computing
The crowd can provide data that enables training
of better analytical models
Aggregation of crowd input in prediction
markets can create insight
$610M annual opportunity by 2011, 18% CGR
분석을 위한 정보서비스
분석을 위한 정보 서비스
분석과 똑똑한 의사 결정을 지원하는데 있어, 서비스로 정보를 제공함
2011년까지 매년 $23B, 10.0% CGR
예., 탄소, SCM
오퍼레이션적인짧은 기간의 결정, 자주발생
기술적인중간 기간의결정
전략적인장기간 결정, 드물게일어남
단순안정적, 지속적, 알려진 최상의
업무처리
복합적결정적인,그러나
전문가 입력과 분석이필요함
복잡함예측 불가, 시간이흐르면서 패턴이
나타남
Business Models – Information Service for Analytics
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
19
비즈니스 룰을 이용한자동화된 결정
Crowd Computing
Interactive Visualization
Semantic Technologies
데이터와 분석적인모델을 위한 특정산업
템플릿
서비스로서 분석
분석을 위한 정보서비스
서비스로서 분석
쉽게 지원될 수 있는 서비스로데이터와 모델에 대한 최상의 업무
모델을 포착한다
2011년까지 매년 $12.8B 기회, 14.8% CGR
오퍼레이션적인짧은 기간의 결정, 자주발생
기술적인중간 기간의결정
전략적인장기간 결정, 드물게일어남
단순안정적, 지속적, 알려진 최상의
업무처리
복합적결정적인,그러나
전문가 입력과 분석이필요함
복잡함예측 불가, 시간이흐르면서 패턴이
나타남
Business Models – Analytics as a Service
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
20
Smart Analytics System
Web | OfficeConsumer Modes
Consume Reports | Ad-Hoc Query | Reporting | Analysis | Dashboards | System Administration
Broad User Capabilities
Framework Manager | TransformerModeling & Management
Installed & Configured
Entitled
Smart Analytics System
Smart Analytics System Business Intelligence Module (Cognos)
Smart Analytics System Data Mining &
Text Analytics ModuleSmart Analytics System Cubing Services Module
Data Mining Text Analytics Cubing Services
Smart Analytics System Foundation
InfoSphere WarehouseWorkload Management Tivoli System Automation
Professional Reports Interactive Analysis Predictive Analytics Dashboards
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
21
... ... ... ... ...
New Intelligence : Business Analytics
Smarter Logistics System
Smarter CitiesTelco Client
Deep Mathematicsand Management
Financial Services
Telco analyzes 250 million call details every
day to predict and prevent potential
customer defections
Business Analytics Optimization
(BAO)
Cognos
ILOG
HighPerformance
Servers
By 2010, more than 30 billion radio frequency
tags will be embedded in the logistics process
A city may have more than 3K digital surveillance
cameras producing more than 17 trillion bytes of uncompressed data per
camera every month
By 2010, more than half of equities trading will
be algorithmic
3 Unique CapabilitiesNew algorithms and formulas
Deep mathematics and operations research skills
Large database expertise
Industry Consulting Expertise
IBMResearch
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
22
New Intelligence : The Watson System Deep Analysis of Questions and Content
Reads huge volumes
of text to acquire wide
range of knowledge
100’s of Millions
of facts inform
and refine text
interpretation
Final
Merging /
Ranking
100k’s of
Scores
Deep
Answer
Scorers
Deep
Answer
Scorers
Deep
Answer
Scorers
Deep
Evidence
Scorers
10k’s Pieces
of Evidence
Supporting
Evidence
Retrieval
Supporting
Evidence
Retrieval
Supporting
Evidence
Retrieval
Supporting
Evidence
Retrieval
100’s of
Candidates
Shallow
Answer
Scorers
Shallow
Answer
Scorers
Shallow
Answer
Scorers
Shallow
Scoring &
Filtering
1000’s of
Candidates
Primary
Search
Distribute
d Search
Engine
Primary
Search
Distribute
d Search
Engine
Primary
Search
Distribute
d Search
Engine
Primary
Search &
Candidate
Generation
Distributed
Search
Engine
Statistical
Models
Clue/
Category
Analysis
Answer, ConfidenceQuestion
Wikipedia : Watson is an artificial intelligence research project by IBM
designed to answer questions posed in natural language. The program is in
the final stages of completion and will run on a Blue Gene computer. It is
scheduled to compete on Jeopardy! as a test of its abilities.
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
23
Smart Work : Accelerating waves of web generations
Le
ve
l o
f In
tera
cti
on
Time1969 ~199525 ~200510 ?
Individual
Web 1.0
Connected
Web 2.0
Inside
Web 3.0 ?
"By the end of 2011,
80% of active Internet
users (and Fortune
500 enterprises) will
have a "second life",
but not necessarily in
Second Life"April 2007, Gartner Inc.
Chris Hughes, 24, a founder of Facebook, left the company to develop Senator Barack Obama’s Web presence.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/07/technology/07hughes.html
Source http://www.xplane.com/obama/
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
24
Smart Work : Digital EconomyThe Mobile Service Composition Framework
Mobile Meetings
•Multiple meeting views
Participant View
Chat View
Slides View
App Share View
•Slide panning and zooming
•Ability to send chat messages
Mobile Wallet
Provides storage and management for a
customer’s:
• Digital coupons
• Digital receipts
Possibly other objects in the future
(loyalty points, shopping lists, business
cards, etc.)
Accessible from Desktop computer
browser and Mobile phone browser
Mobile Instant Messaging
• Enhanced version of Sametime Web
Access Mobile Client
•Integrated with the Mobile Service
Composition Framework to provide:
•Integrated local images/camera
support
Componentized Collaboration Services
• Each component is a
collection of Native and
Web-based Assets
• Mobile Service
Composition Framework
uses JavaScript to
combine these assets
into new composite
applications and solutions Mobile Meetings SDK
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
25
Transistor performance
scaling continues, but
at a slower rate
Dynamic infrastructure :From Transistor to Game Stations to Stream Processing
Heat Cell
Data
TsunamiStream
Computing
InfoSphere
Streams
Scaling
MulticorePower is limiting
practical performance
Single thread performance
is slowing dramatically
Gamestations
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
26
Dynamic Infrastructure : Cloud Computing
Network-Delivered Services are the culmination of a long term trend to
simplify the purchasing of IT Services
Definition:
Cloud computing is a model of shared network-delivered services, both public and private, in which the user sees only the service, and need not worry about implementation details
Types of Clouds
Private Cloud Specialty Cloud Commodity Cloud
On-premise or
remote
Provides services
to a particular
industry,
geography, etc.
Generic services
(CPU cycles, e-mail,
storage, etc) available
to anyone
Service-
oriented
architecture
Built with deep
application
knowledge
Requires massive
scalability in operation
and management
Built on New
Enterprise
Data Center
Requires
technology for
security / isolation
People
Services
Business
Services
Application
Services
Platform
Services
Infrastructure
Services
The 5 Layers of Cloud Services
Customer Care Payments
Open SOA Foundation
Service Bus
Industry Frameworks &
Information Foundation
Distributed Cloud
Computing Services
Social Networking
Collaboration
Sales Force Automation
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
27
PlannedAvailable
Smart Business
on the IBM Cloud
Smart Business Cloud
Smart Business Systems
Standardized services on the
IBM Cloud
Pre-integrated, workload
optimized systems
Private cloud services, behind
your firewall, built and/or
managed by IBM
Lotus Live
IBM CloudBurst
w/Quickstart
Svcs
Smart Business
Test Cloud
Smart Business
Development &
Test on the IBM
Cloud
Smart Business
Desktop Cloud
Smart Business
Desktop on the
IBM Cloud
Information
Protection Services;
Computing on
Demand
Smart Business
for
SMB (backed by
the IBM cloud)
IBM CloudBurst
w/Quickstart
Svces
Scale out
File Services
Analytics Collaboration Development and Test
Desktop and
Devices
Infrastructure
(compute /
storage)
BusinessServices
Smart Analytics
SystemPowered by Infosphere
Dynamic Infrastructure : Smart Business CC Portfolio
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
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Green & beyond : Research Green Data Center Projects
It all started with measuring
heat, cooling, airflow, ... In data
centers and optimizing the
placement of computers,
coolers and applications.
Now we are enhancing these early models with real-time
sensors and the corresponding continous optimization
models, to drastically reduce energy consumption (with
projected 30 % of IT growth, 10x performance improvement)
such that in 2020 we use less energy than today.
"Zero Emission Data Center"
showcase at CeBIT 2008.
IBM researchers
have introduced an
intelligent water
cooling circuit for
computer chips that
revolutionizes energy
management in data
centers.
Projection of datacenter
management into a 3D
virtual world such that
several physical centers
can be managed virtually as
one large data center.
IBM RESEARCH / KOREA LAB
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US
7017 China
4057*EU
4151
Russia
2190
India
1214*
Japan
1340
Major GHG emissions (Mt CO2e, 2006)Source: http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/time_series_annex_i/items/3841.php
Australia
536GGAS
20
EU-ETS
1101
2008-2012 average target: 3937
2008-2012 average target: 5706
(not ratified)
UK-ETS
RGGI
J-VETS
Major Carbon Market (Mt CO2e, 2006)Source: State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008, The World Bank
Green & Beyond : Digital Economy –Growing the carbon credit trading market
2008-2012 average target: 1185
CCX
10
Doubled every year
CDM/JI
under
Kyoto Protocol
597
Grown 500%
from 2004
Global Carbon Emissions & Markets
Global warming requires CO2 emission reduction. Carbon credit trading is a
promising measure, and trends indicate the market is expanding.
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Building a smarter planet
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Smarter Planet
