1

Global trends in resource consumption and increasing importance of MFA

物質消費に関するグローバルトレンドと高まる物質フロー分析の重要性

Yuichi Moriguchi 森口祐一

Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo東京大学大学院・工学系研究科・都市工学専攻

UNEP International Resource Panel

公開G7 アライアンス・ワークショップ－地球規模の資源効率性向上のための国際協力の推進－Promoting International Cooperation for improving Global Resource Efficiency

WS under the G7 Alliance for Resource EfficiencyFebruary 22, 2016

PACIFICO Yokohama Annex Hall F201-F202

2

G7 Alliance for Resource EfficiencyKick-off meeting, Sep. 30 – Oct. 2, 2015, Berlin

3

G7 Alliance Workshop in Berlin on October 2, 2015

Science-policy interface in Material Flow Analysis- Practical lessons from Japanese and international activities -

Yuichi Moriguchi, Dr. Eng.Professor

Department of Urban Engineering, Graduate School of EngineeringThe University of Tokyo, Japan

Panel member, International Resource Panel, UNEP

(Ex-Chair for 2003-2008, OECD/EPOC/WGEIO)

Inaugural event of the G7 Alliance for Resource EfficiencyWorkshop 2 – Promoting resource efficiency – research and innovation

October 2, 2015, Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, Berlin

4

G7 Alliance Workshop in Berlin, on October 2, 2015Prof. Marian Chertow, Yale University, Previous President of ISIE

1

Material Flow Analysis and Waste Management

Yuichi Moriguchi1) & Seiji Hashimoto2)

1) Professor, Department of Urban Engineering,Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo

2) Professor, Department of Environmental Systems Engineering,College of Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan University

ISIE Conference 2015University of Surrey, Guildford, U.K. / July 7-10 2015

Plenary Session : Taking Stock of Industrial Ecology

Taking Stock of Industrial Ecology, ISIE2015

The plenary lectures held during the ISIE conference in Surrey July 7-10, 2015 are streaming at:http://www.surrey.ac.uk/ces/news/key_events/isie_conference/plenaryvideos/index.htm

An e-book with open access is available. 5http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319205700

Material Flow Analysis by Bringezu & Moriguchi,in a Handbook of Industrial Ecology (2002)

• Understanding the structure and functioning of the industrial or societal metabolism is at the core of industrial ecology.

• Material flow analysis (MFA) refers to the analysis of the throughput of process chains comprising the extraction or harvest, manufacturing, chemical transformation, consumption, recycling, and disposal of materials. It is based on accounts in physical units (usually in terms of tons) quantifying the inputs and outputs of those processes. The subjects of the accounting are chemically defined substances (e.g. carbon or carbon dioxide) on the one hand and naturally or technically compound or “bulk“ materials (e.g. coal, wood) on the other hand.

• MFA has often been used synonymously to Material Flow Accounting; in a strict sense the accounting represents only one of several steps of the analysis.

6Bringezu, S. & Moriguchi, Y. (2002) Material Flow Analysis, in Handbook of Industrial Ecology, Edward Elgar

7

Material flow related analyses and associated issues of concern by OECD(2008) based on Bringezu & Moriguchi (2002)

Issues of concern

Specific concerns related to environmental impacts, supply security, technology development

General environmental and economic concerns related to the throughput

within certainbusinesses, economic activities, countries, regions

ofsubstances, materials, manufactured goods

associated with at the level of

Objects of primary interest

Substances Materials Manufactured goods Businesses Economic

activities Countries, regions

chemical elements or compounds

e.g. Cd, Cl, Pb, Zn, Hg, N, P, C, CO2,

CFC

raw materials and semi-finished goods

e.g. energy carriers, metals (ferrous, non-

ferrous), sand and gravel, timber, plastics

e.g. batteries, cars, computers

e.g. firms, companies, plants, medium sized and

big enterprises, MNEs

e.g. production sectors, chemical industry, iron and

steel industry, construction, mining

e.g. aggregate mass of materials

(& related materials mix),groups of materials, selected materials

Type of analysis

IaSubstance Flow

Analysis

IbMaterial System

Analysis

IcLife Cycle Analysis

IIaBusiness level MF analysis

IIbInput-Output

Analysis

IIcEconomy-wide MF

Analysis

Type of measurement tool

Substance Flow Accounts

Individual Material Flow Accounts

Life Cycle Inventories (MF

Inventories)

Business Material flow

accounts

Physical Input-Output Tables

,NAMEA-type

approaches

Economy-wide Material Flow

Accounts

: MFA tools using the materials balance principle. : MFA tools using national accounting principles fully in line with the SEEA.Source: OECD, based on Bringezu and Moriguchi 2002.

8

Measuring Material Flows and Resource ProductivityVol. 1 The OECD GuideVol. 2 The Accounting Framework Vol. 3 Inventory of Country Activities

OECD’s recommendations and guidance documents

Council Recommendations on Material Flows and Resource ProductivityApril 2004 & April 2008

9

Transition of socio-economic structure

One-way

Recycling-basedCycle-oriented

Sound material-cycle

循環型社会“Junkan”

大量生産・大量消費・大量廃棄型社会

Mass-production, mass-consumption, mass-disposal society

Sound material-cycle society (SMCS)

Circular Economy

Saving resources

Reducing burdens

Material balance published on Japan’s White Paper in 1992

A framework for capturing economy-wide material flows

Hidden Flows Hidden Flows

Stocks

Domestic Environment

ProcessingDomestic

Extraction

Domestic

Processed

Outputs DPO

(to Air, Land, and Water)

Hidden Flows

Imports Exports

Add. Air

and Water

Water

Vapour

DMI

TMR

TDO

SCOPE WS for Indicators of Sustainable Development, Wuppertal Institute, 1995Ernst, Stefan(WI), Marina(IFF), Allen Hammond (WRI), Albert Adriaanse (VROM), Yuichi (NIES) were there

International joint study

Material Flow Indicators for Fundamental Plan for SMCS

A few European experts found it

Interactive cycle in the progress of MF Indicators

International Resource policy ?

Initiatives within OECD, G8, EU

WRI: (1997,2000)

Scientific knowledge

10

Chronology in international interactions

11

Japan G8, EU, OECD UNEP Research Inst.Until 1995

Concept of SMCSMaterial balance

IFF, WI, NIESSCOPE SDI-WS

1996-2000 OECD MFA Seminar

WRI Joint studyConAccountGRC on IE

2001-2005 1st FP-SMCS

(2003)

Eurostat MFA GuideG8 MFA studyOECD 1st Council RecommendationG8 3R Initiative

ISIE established

Biennial ISIE conferences since 2001

1st ISIE-Asia Pacific(Kawasaki)

2nd ISIE-AP(Tokyo)3rd ISIE-AP(Beijing)

7th ISIE (Ulsan)

4th ISIE-AP(Melbourne)5th ISIE-AP(Nagoya)

3R Ministerial (Tokyo)

2006-2008

Pre-Panel meetingUNEP resource efficiency WS(Tokyo)

OECD-Japan seminar on MF/RP IRP Launch

2nd FP-SMCS(2008)

OECD-UNEP resource efficiency conf.OECD 2nd Council Recommendation

G8 Env. Ministerial (Kobe action plan)

2009-2016

3rd FP-SMCS(2013)

Green Growth IndicatorsStatistical reporting of MFA by EU directiveG7 Elmau Summit

11th

IRP(Tokyo)

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

%

Cyclical use rate (Circulated Resource/(DMI+CR))

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

ten

thou

sand

yen

/ to

n

Resource productivity (GDP/DMI)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

mill

ion

ton

Final disposal

12

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

mill

ion

tons

Nonmetallic mineralsFossil fuelMetalsBiomass

Japan's Direct Material Inputs(DMI) by resource categories

Trends of 3 Material Flow Indicators toward their targets in Japan’s Fundamental Plan for Establishing a SMCS

Inlet Cycle

Outlet

1st (2003) 2nd(2008) 3rd(2013)

Inlet

Resource Productivity(390,000JPY/ton)

(420,000JPY/ton) (460,000JPY/ton)

RP excluding construction minerals (680,000JPY/ton)

(770,000JPY/ton)

RP by fossil resources →RP by industry sector RP in manufacturing and by

industry sector

Biomass derived resource input ratio

→

TMR for metal derived resources imported into Japan

RP by Raw Material Equivalent

Cycle

Cyclical use rate (14%) (14～15％） (17%)

Amount of circulative resource imports and exports

→

TMR based cyclical use rate of metals

Cyclical use rate on the outlet (discharge) side (45%)

Outlet

Final disposal amount(28 million tons)

(23 million tons) (17 million tons)

Waste sector GHG emissions →

Indicators with target, Supplementary indicators with target and Indicators to monitor trends for 1st, 2nd and 3rd Japanese Fundamental Plan for Establishing a Sound Material-Cycle Society

13

Trends in global resource extraction, GDP and material intensity 1980-2011

This figure illustrates global trends in resource extraction, GDP, population and material intensity in indexed form (1980 equals a value of 100)

14Source: http://www.materialflows.net/home/

Global Trends in Material Flows (provided by SERI/WU/IFEU)

Global resource extraction by material category 1980-2011

In this figure, global resource extraction (including only used materials) between 1980 and 2011 is presented.Four material categories are separately shown: metal ores, industrial and construction minerals, fossil fuels and biomass (from agriculture, forestry and fishery).

15Source: http://www.materialflows.net/home/

Global Trends in Material Flows (provided by SERI/WU/IFEU)

Shares of global resource extraction by world region 1980 vs. 2011

In this figure, global resource extraction data is disaggregated by six world regions, illustrating the shares of each region in total extraction for the years 1980 and 2011.

16Source: http://www.materialflows.net/home/

Global Trends in Material Flows (provided by SERI/WU/IFEU)

17

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Crude Steel Production by World Regions (1000 ton)

World

Asia

China

EU15

Japan

USA

India

South Korea

Source: World Steel Association

JIE, 16(4), 2012

JIE, 17(4), 2013

JIE, 16(4), 2012

Economy Wide-MFA Studies for Emerging Economies

18

International Resource Panel Established on November 9th, 2007Secretariat : UNEP/DTIECo-chair: Dr. Ernst von Weizsäcker

→Dr. Janez Potočnik and Dr. Ashok Khosla The overall objective :

• to provide independent scientific assessment of the environmental impacts due to the use of resources over the full life cycle,

• and to advise governments and organizations on ways to reduce these impacts.

19http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/

Working Group Title Year

DecouplingDecoupling natural resource use and environmental impacts from economic growth 2011

Decoupling 2: Technologies, Opportunities and Policy Options 2014

Cities City-Level Decoupling: Urban resource flows and the governance of infrastructure transitions 2013

Environmental Impacts

Priority products and materials: assessing the environmental impacts of consumption and production 2010

International Trade in Resources: A Biophysical Assessment 2015Water Measuring Water Use in a Green Economy 2012

Metal

Metal stocks in society 2010Recycling rates of metals 2011Environmental risks and challenges of anthropogenic metals flows and cycles 2013

Metal recycling: Opportunities, limits, infrastructure 2013

Land and Soil

Assessing biofuels: towards sustainable production and use of resources 2009

Assessing Global Land Use: Balancing Consumption with Sustainable Supply 2014

REDD++ Building Natural Capital – How REDD+ Can Support a Green Economy 2014

Cross-Cutting Publications

Responsible Resource Management for a Sustainable World: Findings from the International Resource Panel 2012

Assessment reports by UNEP IRP

20

21

Recent assessment reports by Metal Working Group of UNEP International Resource Panel

http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/Whatwedo/OurWork/tabid/794375/Default.aspx

Metal stocks in society: scientific synthesis (2010)

Recycling Rates of Metals (2011)

Environmental Risks and Challenges of Anthropogenic Metals Flows and Cycles (2013)

Metal Recycling: Opportunities, Limits, Infrastructure (2013)

E-Book: International Resource Panel Work on Global Metal Flows (2013)

Japanese summary is available

22Source:UNEP(2011)

Metal life cycle and flow annotation

Concluding messages• During last two decades, Material Flow Analysis (MFA) has achieved good

progress along with evolvements in Industrial Ecology studies.

• In particular, application of MFA as a basis of indicators for measuring resource productivity / resource efficiency has been a good opportunity for interactive process between scientific research and policy.

• This interactive process has evolved with national environmental policy in Japan, intergovernmental initiatives (e.g. in OECD, G7/G8), and contribution of researchers to these initiatives and international scientific activities (e.g. in IRP, ISIE etc.).

• For the actual improvement of resource efficiency, collaboration between academic analysis or models and on-site practices by business sectors should be explored.

• Lessons can be learned from this case of MFA, to explore further international cooperation for improving resource efficiency, not only within G7, but also beyond G7, in particular, with emerging economies.

23