36
Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker 

Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Global vaccine market

Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum

Amie BatsonChief Strategy Officer, PATHMarch 2016

PATH/Eric Becker 

Page 2: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Agenda

• Overview of global vaccine market• Demand• Supply• Financing

• Vaccine development  and vaccine markets• Product life‐cycle

Page 3: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Demand – critical factors

• Epidemiology: •Global and local;  • Individual and community

• Perceived safety – vaccine hesitancy

• Perceived value for money• Fit with delivery system

PATH/Gabe Bienczycki

Page 4: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Demand – growing market

• Perceived Safety –vaccine hesitancy

• Perceived value for money

• Epidemiology: Global and local

• Fit with delivery system

Source: Global Vaccine Market Model preliminary routine immunization market value analysis, March 2016

6

17

2833

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

$ (Billions)

Vaccine Market Growth

UMICS23%

LMICs8%

LICs4%

HICs65%

Vaccine Market Share 2014(US$ Approximate Value)

Page 5: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Global vaccine markets

Note: Only non‐PAHO countries with >250,000 annual birth cohort included. Source: World Bank GNI 2013, UNPD Population Prospects 2012 Edition, GAVI Website, September 2014

MIC/LMICPRIVATE

US/EUROPE/JAPAN

GAVI/UN

MIC/LMICPUBLIC 

Page 6: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Global vaccine markets

Note: Only non‐PAHO countries with >250,000 annual birth cohort included. Source: World Bank GNI 2013, UNPD Population Prospects 2012 Edition, GAVI Website, September 2014

MIC/LMICPRIVATE

US/EUROPE/JAPANVaccine hesitancy

GAVI/UNPOOLED PROCUREMENT

• Characteristics to fit in delivery system

• Value for money

MIC/LMICPUBLIC 

Page 7: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Supply

PATH/Satvir Malhotra

• Regulatory requirements: national and WHO PQ

• Predictability of demand

• Reliability and scale of production 

Page 8: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Vaccine manufacturers

33

17

13

12

4

21

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Share of market value

Other

Sanofi‐PasteurMSD

Merck

Pfizer

Sanofi‐Pasteur

GlaxoSmithKline/Novartis

Source: Miloud Kaddar, WHO, “Global Vaccines Market Features and Trends” Presentation. Geneva, 2012; GAVI website, October 2014; PATH analysis

State-owned Privately held

Developing country vaccine manufacturers

BioE

Innovax

BBIL

Parastatalglobal actors

Local

Emerging actors

Niche

Nat

iona

lG

loba

l exp

ort

Serum Institute of India

LGLS

CNBG

BioFarma

BioM

Butantan

Institute Pasteur de Dakar

Birmex

Biovac

Walvax

SK Chemicals

Panacea

Incepta

Arabio

Razi

Page 9: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Scale matters in vaccine manufacturing: larger production can help drive down unit costs. 

Illustrative only

Indi

cativ

e co

st p

er d

ose

man

ufac

ture

d

Manufacturing volume

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, custom data acquired via website.

Gavi57M doses

OECD12M doses

*Assuming 80% coverage

Page 10: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Financing

PATH/Jolene Beitz

• Perceived value for money by market

• Tiered pricing• Perceived reliability and timeliness of payor

Page 11: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

The GAVI/UNICEF procurement has doubled in value in the last 5 years alone. 

Source: UNICEF public data

UNICEF contracts (2001‐14)

Page 12: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Demand (num

ber o

f doses)

As countries transition from Gavi and ODA, vaccines will be increasingly financed by domestic budgets.

Source: PATH Global Vaccines Market Model. Provided for illustrative purposes only.

Gavi transitions 2015‐2030

Page 13: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Demand (num

ber o

f doses)

As countries transition from Gavi and ODA, vaccines will be increasingly financed by domestic budgets.

Source: PATH Global Vaccines Market Model. Provided for illustrative purposes only.

Gavi transitions 2015‐2030

Page 14: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Demand (num

ber o

f doses)

As countries transition from Gavi and ODA, vaccines will be increasingly financed by domestic budgets.

Source: PATH Global Vaccines Market Model. Provided for illustrative purposes only.

Gavi transitions 2015‐2030

Page 15: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Vaccine Development – why markets matter   

PATH/Amy MacIver

• Demand and financing depends on characteristics of vaccine • Fit with delivery system and 

schedule• Value for money

• Significant investment

Page 16: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Investments in vaccine development and production are significant. The expected market size is a critical factor. 

*All costs sourced from Light, Donald W., Jon Kim Andrus, and Rebecca N. Warburton. "Estimated research and development costs of rotavirus vaccines." Vaccine 27.47 (2009): 6627‐6633, updated to 2016 USD

Time (years)

Investmen

t $ m

illion

PreclinicalPhase I & II

Phase III

Licensure and production capital

Decision Gate

Decision Gate

Page 17: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Product life‐cycle

Product launch Early market penetration Maturity

Number of products 1 1‐2 Several

Product capacity Low Medium High

Cost/unit High Relatively high Yield and learning curve gains

Price High Tiers (High/middle income)

Competitive‐ Multiple tiers‐ Lowest tier for 

the poorest

PATH/Amy MacIver

Page 18: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Changing landscape ‐ 2006

Source: UNICEF public data

Page 19: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Changing landscape ‐ 2007

Source: UNICEF public data

Page 20: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Changing landscape ‐ 2008

Source: UNICEF public data

Page 21: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Changing landscape ‐ 2009

Source: UNICEF public data

Page 22: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Changing landscape ‐ 2010

Source: UNICEF public data

Page 23: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Changing landscape ‐ 2011

Source: UNICEF public data

Page 24: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Changing landscape ‐ 2012

Source: UNICEF public data

Page 25: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Changing landscape ‐ 2013This image cannot currently be displayed.

Source: UNICEF public data

Page 26: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Changing landscape ‐ 2014This image cannot currently be displayed.This image cannot currently be displayed.

Source: UNICEF public data

Page 27: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Hib vaccine introduction: high‐ and low‐income markets

Source: International Vaccine Access Center (IVAC), Vaccine Information Management System (VIMS) Global Vaccine Introduction Report, December 2015. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Percen

tage of cou

ntrie

s that h

ave

universally introd

uced

 vaccine

Years since first introduction

High‐income markets

Low‐income markets

~10+ years

Page 28: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

PCV vaccine introduction: high‐ and low‐income markets

Source: International Vaccine Access Center (IVAC), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Vaccine Information Management System (VIMS) Global Vaccine Introduction Report, December 2015.

Note: Limited projections are available for PCV introduction in high‐income countries

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Percen

tage of cou

ntrie

s that h

ave

universally introd

uced

 vaccine

Years since first introduction

High‐income markets

Low‐income markets

~5 years

Page 29: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

New vaccines are reaching children in developing countries much more rapidly. 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Percen

tage of cou

ntrie

s that h

ave

universally introd

uced

 vaccine

Years since first introduction

Hib HIC

Hib LIC

PCV HIC

PCV LIC

Note: Limited projections are available for PCV introduction in high‐income countriesSource: International Vaccine Access Center (IVAC), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Vaccine Information Management System (VIMS) Global Vaccine Introduction Report, December 2015.

Page 30: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Tiered pricing enabled GAVI countries to access PCV earlier in the products lifecycles

Source: Global Vaccines Market Model, March 2016

 $‐

 $20.00

 $40.00

 $60.00

 $80.00

 $100.00

 $120.00

1M 7M 13M

19M

25M

31M

37M

43M

49M

55M

61M

67M

73M

79M

85M

91M

97M

103M

109M

115M

121M

127M

133M

139M

145M

151M

157M

163M

169M

175M

181M

187M

193M

199M

205M

211M

217M

223M

229M

2015

 AVE

RAGE PR

ICE PER DO

SE

SHARE OF DEMAND

USA

Other HICs

UMICs

LMICs

Gavi

PCV price and volume by Market 2015

Page 31: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Price tiering has also been critical in accelerating access to rotavirus vaccines. 

Source: Global Vaccines Market Model, March 2016

 $‐

 $10.00

 $20.00

 $30.00

 $40.00

 $50.00

 $60.00

1M 4M 7M 10M

13M

16M

19M

22M

25M

28M

31M

34M

37M

40M

43M

46M

49M

52M

55M

58M

61M

64M

67M

70M

73M

76M

79M

82M

85M

88M

91M

94M

97M

100M

103M

106M

109M

2015

 AVE

RAGE PR

ICE PER DO

SE

SHARE OF WASTAGE‐ADJUSTED DEMAND

USA

Other HICs

UMICs

LMICs

Gavi

Rotavirus vaccine price and volume by Market 2015

Page 32: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

This image cannot currently be displayed.

Vaccines without a dual market face other challenges. Meningitis A vaccine was developed through a public private partnership.

• DEMAND: African MOHs request conjugate Men A vaccine available at ~$0.50/dose

• DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPLY:  PATH‐WHO partnership with Serum Institute of India, FDA, NIH, and others

• FINANCING: BMGF invest $75 million; gov’ts and donors purchase doses

• Vaccine available on market in 2010;  TODAY – 235 million people protected

• By 2020, expect to protect ~ 400 million

Page 33: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

The challenges – managing the vicious cycle: 

Financing

Demand

Supply 

Uncertainty about demand leads to limited investments in capacity 

Low capacity results in limited supply which creates shortages and keeps prices relatively high 

Higher prices raise questions about value for money and increase uncertainty about demand and financing

Page 34: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Financing

Demand

Supply 

The challenges – creating a virtuous cycle: 

Reliable demand leads to investment in adequate capacity and efficiently managed production

Lower costs translate into affordable prices for different markets stimulating demand 

Appropriately sized capacity increases efficiency of production ‐ benefit from economies of scale and supply all markets

Page 35: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

ot currently be displayed.

PATH/Gabe Bienczycki

Thank you!www.path.org

This image cannot currently be displayed.

Page 36: Global vaccine market - WHO · Global vaccine market Global Vaccine and Immunization Research Forum Amie Batson Chief Strategy Officer, PATH March 2016 PATH/Eric Becker

Global vaccine markets

Note: Only non‐PAHO countries with >250,000 annual birth cohort included. Source: World Bank GNI 2013, UNPD Population Prospects 2012 Edition, GAVI Website, September 2014

MIC/LMICPRIVATE

US/EUROPE/JAPAN• Vaccine hesitancy

GAVI/UNPOOLED PROCUREMENT

• Characteristics to fit in delivery system

• Value for money

MIC/LMICPUBLIC