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CHNG CHNG 2:2:KHKHI I U DU D NN
1. Hnh thnh d n2. nh gi v so snh la chn d n3. Phn tch ri ro
CCC GIAI OC GIAI ON HNH THN HNH THNH DNH D NN
2
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
nh gi theo tng giaion s dng c hiuqu ngun lc ca DN
KHKHI NII NIM &M & NH NGHNH NGHA DA D NN
3
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
Giai on nghin cu c hi u t
D n p ng nhu cu g?
D n c ph hp vi chuyn mn v chin lc cacng ty khng?
NGHIN CNGHIN CU TIU TIN KHN KH THITHI N lc u tin nhm nh gi trin vng chung ca
d n Cn duy tr cht lng thng tin nh nhau cho mi
bin ca d n Cn s dng thng tin th cp sn c Thng tin thin lch tt hn gi tr trung bnh
4
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
NGHIN CNGHIN CU TIU TIN KHN KH THITHICh
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
5
Phn tch th trng Phn tch k thut Phn tch ngun lc Phn tch ti chnh Phn tch kinh t Phn tch x hi Phn tch nhu cu c bn
Kh thi ti chnh, kinh t, xh?Bin/ ch tiu ch yu?Ngun ri ro?
NGHIN CNGHIN CU KHU KH THITHICh
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
6
Tng cng nghin cu c bn Xc nh thm bin s Chi tit cc bin php hn ch ri ro
Kh thi ti chnh, kinh t, xh?Mc khng tin cy cabin/ ch tiu ch yu?C RQ thit k chi tit?
CCC LC LNH VNH VC PHN TC PHN TCHCH
7
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PHA N TCH X A HOI (SOCIAL ANALYSIS)
PHAN TCH NHU CAU C BAN (BASIC NEEDS ANALYSIS)
PHA N TCH KINH TE (ECONOMIC ANALYSIS)
PHA N TCH TAI CHNH (FINANCIAL ANALYSIS)
PT TH TR NG(MARKET ANALYSIS)
PT KY THUA T(TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
PT NGUO N LC(RESOURCES ANALYSIS)
PHN TPHN TCH THCH TH TR TRNGNG
Nghin cu cc ngun nhu cu c bn, cht lngca th trng, gi c v s lng
Kt qu ca phn tch: D bo v s lng & gi cho sut tui th phn tch Thu, thu nhp khu, tr gi, cc quy nh chung, xu
hng cng ngh
8
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PHN TPHN TCH KCH K THUTHUTT Nghin cu cc yu cu v nhp lng cng gi c
i vi u t v vn hnh
Kt qu ca phn tch: Cng ngh & tui th ca d n S lng v chng loi nhp lng cn thit cho u t
v vn hnh Lao ng cn thit theo loi hnh v theo thi gian Gi nhp lng v cc ngun cung cp
9
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PHN TPHN TCH VCH V QUQUN L NGUN L NGUN LN LCC Cc nhu cu v qun l d n T chc c kh nng nhn c cc loi k nng
qun l cn thit B tr thi gian ca d n ph hp vi cht v lng
ca d n Cc mc lng cho cc loi k nng lao ng cn
thit Cc yu cu v nhn lc theo loi hnh ph hp vi
ngun sn c v thi gian biu ca d n
10
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PHN TPHN TCH TCH TI CHI CHNHNH Tng hp cc bin ti chnh v k thut t ba phn
tch u tin Thit lp bin dng dng tin t ca d n Xc nh cc bin ch yu i vi phn tch kinh t v
phn tch x hi Kt qu ca phn tch:
chc chn tng i ca cc bin ti chnh Cc ngun v chi ph ca vic ti tr? Cc yu cu v dng tin t ti thiu i vi mi thnh
vin tham gia Cn phi iu chnh iu g tha mn mi thnh vin
tham gia?
11
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PHN TPHN TCH KINH TCH KINH TXem xt d n di gc ton b quc gia l mtthc th hch ton.
KT QU CA PHN TCH khc bit gia gi tr ti chnh v gi tr kinh t i vi mi bin
s? Nguyn nhn ca nhng khc bit ny? Chng ta bit gi tr ca cc khc bit ny vi mc chc chn
nh th no? Nhm mbo tnh kh thi ca d n v mt kinh t, chng ta cn
phi tnh n cc loi tc ng ngoi ng no?
?CHAP THUAN
BAC BO
?
PHN TCH KINH TP
H
N
T
C
H
T
I
C
H
N
H
+
-
- +
PHN TPHN TCH X HCH X HI HAY PHN TI HAY PHN TCH CH PHN PHPHN PHII
Xc nh v lng ho cc tc ng ngoi kinh tca d n
Cc nh hng v thu nhp i vi cc loi nhmkhc nhau
nh hng ca nhng nhu cu c bn n cc khuvc c th
NH GINH GI & SO S& SO SNH LNH LA CHA CHN DN D NN
Phng php dng tin t chit gim
Phng php truyn thng
Phng php ra quyt nh a mc tiu
15
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PP. DNG TIPP. DNG TIN TN T CHICHIT GIT GIMM Phng php gi tr tng ng
Phng php sut thu li ni ti So snh IRR vi MARR So snh dng tin gia s
Phng php t s li ch/ chi ph T s B/C thng T s B/C sa i
16
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
=
+=
n
tt
t
iCFNPV
0 )1(
PP. TRUYPP. TRUYN THN THNGNG
Thi gian b vn khong thi gian cn thit li ch thu c b chi
ph u t ban u Khng xt n sut chit khu
C xt n sut chit khu
im ha vn
17
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
=
=+bvT
ttCFP
10
=
=
++
bvT
tt
t
iCFP
10)1(
BBI TOI TON A MN A MC TIUC TIU
Mc tiu c o bng th nguyn khc nhau
Cng lc tha mn nhiu mc tiu vi mc cngcao cng tt
Nu ti tha mn tt c cc mc tiu mc caonht cng lc???
18
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
QUQU TRNH RQ A M TRNH RQ A MC TIUC TIU
19
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
Bin quyt nh Hm mc tiu Rng buc
M hnh ton:
Quy hoch tuyn tnhQuy hoch ng
Quy hoch nguyn
Li gii tiu cho mimc tiu
Pht hin cc phng n khng b tri La chn phng n
M hnh phn cc Lit k v cho im RQ a yu t
Li ch chung Hiu qu - Chi ph Quy hoch tha hip PP. la chn
M HNH PHN CM HNH PHN CCC
20
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PP. LIPP. LIT K VT K V CHO I CHO IMM Gn trng s khc nhau cho cc mc tiu Cho im theo tng mc tiu Chn phng n c tng im cao nht
21
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
Ch tiu (Criteria)Nhanh Nhiu Tt R
im 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 TngA X X X X 10
B X X X X 6
C X X X X 8
PP. RPP. RQ A YQ A YU TU T Xc nh tm quan trng tng i gia cc yu t
Lng gi cc yu t FEij
Tnh tng lng gi c trng s ca tng phng n
22
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
10
PP. HIPP. HIU QUU QU VV CHI PHCHI PH
Phng php hiu qu khng i xc nh phng n c chi ph thp nht tha mn mc
li ch nu ra
Phng php chi ph khng i xc nh phng n thu c gi tr cao hn trn mi n
v chi ph
23
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PP. HIPP. HIU QUU QU VV CHI PHCHI PH
24
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PP. LPP. LI I CH CHUNGCH CHUNG
25
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PP. LPP. LI I CH CHUNGCH CHUNG
26
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
Bi ton Max
ii
i
ijij
ijijij
ZZ
ZZb
minmax
min
= =
=
n
jijji xbMaxCU
1
PP. LPP. LI I CH CHUNGCH CHUNG
27
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
Bi ton Min
ii
i
ijij
ijijij
ZZ
ZZb
minmax
max
= =
=
n
jijji xbMaxCU
1
PP. QUY HOPP. QUY HOCH THCH THA HIA HIPP Xem xt s nh i gia 2 mc tiu
28
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
Q (Z1Q, Z2Q) Nghim l tng
Zi1 Z1max
Z2max
Zi2
L1
Zij
ng nh i Min nghim tm thng
Min nghim khng kh thi
Nghim ti u
PP. QUY HOPP. QUY HOCH THCH THA HIA HIP (TT)P (TT) Khong cch Euclide cc mc tiu cng th nguyn
Khong cch chun ha:
Khong cch chun ha c xt n trng s mc tiu:
29
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
( ) 21
2
1
=
=jijjQii
ZZLMin
21
2
1
2
minmax
= =j jj
ijjQii ZZ
ZZLMin
21
2
1
2
minmax
=
=j jj
jijjQii ZZ
ZZLMin
PP. LPP. LA CHA CHNN
Gip chn cc phng n tt hn S dng ton t sp hng R xc nh tp phng n khng b tri (Kernel)
30
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
7
4
1
6 3
8 5
2
PHN TPHN TCH RCH RI ROI ROCc dng ri ro: Ri ro c tnh h thng
nh hng n ton b hot ng ca cc ngnh kinh t, cc d n
Ri ro khng c tnh h thng nh hng n mt s ngnh kinh t, mt s loi d n
Phn tch ri ro: Phn tch nhy Phn tch tnh hung Phn tch ri ro bng m phng
31
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PHN TPHN TCH CH NHNHYY Phn tch mc nhy cm ca cc kt qu khi c
s thay i gi tr ca mt/ mt s bin u vo
Gip tr li cu hi What If
Nhc im: Ch xem xt tng bin s Khng trnh by xc sut xut hin ca bin s v xc
sut xy ra ca kt qu
32
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PHN TPHN TCH TNH HUCH TNH HUNGNG Xem xt ng thi nh hng ca mt s bin n
kt qu d n Mt s tnh hung thng c phn tch
Tnh hung tt nht Tnh hung thng xy ra Tnh hung xu nht
Nhc im Kh nng cc gi tr tt nht/xu nht ca cc bin xy
ra ng thi l rt him Khng trnh by xc sut xut hin ca bin s v xc
sut xy ra ca cc kt qu
33
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PHN TPHN TCH RCH RI RO BI RO BNG M PHNG M PHNGNGBi ton n gin
Phng php gii tch
Bi ton phc tp Phng php m phng Monte Carlo
34
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N
PHN TPHN TCH RCH RI RO BI RO BNG M PHNG M PHNGNGPhng php m phng Monte Carlo
Xc nh bin ri ro, xc lp phn phi ca bin Xc nh m hnh m phng Thc hin m phng
ly ngu nhin gi tr cho bin u vo tnhkt qu
Phn tch kt qu gi tr k vng, lch chun, xc sut...
35
Ch
ng 2
: K
H
I
U D
N