Hard Choices Ahead

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CRedcarbon reduction

Hard Choices Ahead

Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery, Energy Science Director:

HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Climate Chage: The Greatest Threat to Mankind?

ADAS: 13th December 2006Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

CRed

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Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)

3


1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000T

emp

erat

ure

Ris

e (o C

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

actual

actual

actual

predicted

predicted

predictedIs Global Warming man made?

Prediction: Anthropogenic only

Not a good match between 1920 and 1970

Prediction: Natural only

good match until 1960

Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic

Generally a good match

Predictions include:

• Greenhouse Gas emissions

• Sulphates and ozone

• Solar and volcanic activity

4Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation

Source: Tim

Osborne, C

RU

Change in precipitation 1961-2001Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood

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(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)

Norwich

Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise

Norwich City would be playing water polo!

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19792003

Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

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"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could

supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect

this

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently

35% )

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

potential contribution to

Electricity Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Wholesale Electricity Prices since NETA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

p/k

Wh

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Inst

all

ed C

ap

aci

ty (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2017.

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On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

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Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km

But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

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10+ p

Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

50% + available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

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10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


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Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely.

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power

• Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

Actual Nuclear Projected

Nuclear Closures

Actual Coal with FGD

Opted Out Coal

New Nuclear ???

New Coal ???

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity (M

W)

• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015

• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2016

• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2016

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020

• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS

• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? –

Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route

and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

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Some Myths about Wind Energy

• What happens when the wind does not blow?.• Large Coal /Nuclear Stations trip/ have failures and these

cause a loss of power within a matter of minutes.• In terms of short term variations wind is more reliable.

•Wind Turbines kill birds.

Evidence suggesta that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations. In many cases it is much less

Oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it.

Currently UK has around 1700 MW wind turbines installed perhaps 5000 birds killed a year

Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles

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Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient

Efficiency: the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended)

Oxford English Dictionary

Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind

Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38%

Sizewell B achieves 32%

A car engine achieve 20 - 25% at best

Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

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Is Efficiency being confused with Capacity Factor?• a measure of how much use is made of an appliance compared to the amount

that could be achieved at rated output over a year.

• Wind Turbines have a Capacity Factor of 22% for first generation turbines in the East to 30%+ for the latest generation machines. Capacity factors are higher in the West and as much as 40% or more in places in Scotland. Even in East Anglia, capacity factors of 50% are achieved in some months.

• A capacity factor of 30% does not mean it is only working for 30% of the time. It means that it could be working at 30% of output for 100% of the time, 100% of output for 30% of time, or any combination between. The fact the turbine is working does not mean that it is at its rated output.

• Large coal and nuclear stations are off line for up to 50 days at a time – loosing equivalent output of 700 + turbines.

• A car driven 10000 miles has a capacity factor about 4%.• A washing machine used 5 times a week has a capacity factor of 3%.

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Historic and Future Demand for Electricity

Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ele

ctri

city

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

TW

h)

Business as usual

Energy Efficient Future ?

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Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

Actual

Business as Usual

Energy Efficiency

The Gas Scenario

Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas.

Replacements for ageing plant

Additions to deal with demand changes

Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010

25% renewables by 2025

Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010

But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002)

Business as Usual

257% increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002)

Electricity Options for the Future

Gas Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

bill

ion

cu

bic

met

res Actual

Business as Usual

Energy Efficiency

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Energy Efficiency Scenario

Other Options

Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to fall significantly and excessive

gas demand is to be avoided

Business as Usual Scenario

New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels


0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mto

nn

es C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix

25% Renewables by 2025

• 20000 MW Wind

• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.

Alternative Electricity Options for the Future

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich.

In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person

Is this Fair?

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

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Raising Awareness• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.

Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.

• A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year

~ 1000 balloons each year. 10 kg CO2

• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

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Saving Energy – A Practical GuideWays to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint

Micro Wind

Micro CHP

Heat Pumps

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Transport

• Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris

• Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph.

Chart Title

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Average Speed (mph)

(m

pg)

0

0.5

1

1.5

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2.5

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3.5

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02/Jun 22/Jun 12/Jul 01/Aug 21/Aug 10/Sep 30/Sep

km/lt

r

Driver 1

Driver 2

Driver behaviour trials at Banham Poultry

• Driver behaviour affects performance• Driver 2 uses 13.8% more fuel

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Historic Trends: Freight Transport on Roads

• Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by:– 223% since 1960– 20% since 1990

• Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?

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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003

Tra

nsp

ort

of g

oods

km

/ton

ne

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Involve the local Community

• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.

• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.

• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.

• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

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Electricity Statistics: Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year.

Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh

North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh

Kings Lynn and 5908 kWh Great 5144 kWh West Norfolk Yarmouth

A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands can supply twice domestic demand of Norwich or 66% on average.

(or 22% of total demand)

Saves ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year.

The alternatives:

Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car againOr 300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

Widespread deployment of small scale renewables, and energy conservation.

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Hard ChoicesWhat can we as individuals do?What can we do collectively as a Community?

Visit the CRed WEB Site

Sign a pledge to• combat global warming• help secure a sustainable environment for our children• help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming• help secure energy supplies for the future

saving energy

Adopting technical solutionsPromoting Awareness

Promoting appropriate renewable energy

www.cred-uk.org

http://www.cred-uk.org/

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Conclusions

• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades

• Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.

• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour.

It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.

• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.

• Otherwise Nuclear???

• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

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WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/

This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links

• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

Conclusions

Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

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CRedcarbon reductionAnimation Courtesy of Rob Hannington

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Hard Choices Ahead