HAZUS (Hazards US)karamanhi/HAZUS-HiM.pdfHimmet Karaman, MSc 17 GIS Tabanlı Hasar Tahmin Sistemleri • Deterministik (Rastgele Olmayan) GIS Tabanlı Hasar Modellemesi Deterministik

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2005-11-15 | HAZUS (Hazards U.S.) | İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi |

Himmet Karaman, MSc

Himmet Karaman

İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi15/11/2005

HAZUS (Hazards US)HAZUS (Hazards US)

Ölçme Tekniği Anabilim Dalı


Himmet Karaman, MSc

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İçindekiler

• HAZUS Nedir?• Afet Yönetimi• Hasar Tahmini • Hasar Tahmin Sistemi Metodolojisi • GIS Tabanlı Hasar Tahmin Sistemleri

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Himmet Karaman, MSc

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HAZUS

• HAZUS programı ilk olarak 1992 yılında Ulusal Deprem Hasarlarını Azaltma Programı (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program) tarafından Ulusal Bilim Kurumu (National Science Foundation) tarafından 1989 yılında yapılan bir çalışmayı takiben,


Himmet Karaman, MSc

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HAZUS

• Afet yönetimi, risk azaltma, planlama, hazırlıklı olma, müdahale ve iyileştirme konularındaki ulusal programlara destek olmak amacıyla, etraflıca risk-tabanlı zarar analizi yaparak can ve mal kaybınıazaltmak, insanları ve kurumları doğal afetlerden korumak amacıyla başlatılmıştır.

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Himmet Karaman, MSc

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HAZUS Nedir?Bir planlama aracıdır, mühendislik aracı değildir.

Mühendislik verisi doğruluğu arttırmak için girdi olarak kullanılabilir, fakat sonuçlar hala planlamaya yönelik sonuçlar verir

Fiziksel zarar ve ekonomik kayıpları tahmin eder

Afet yönetimi ile ilgili kişi sayısını tayin eder

Kullanıcıların, bazı özel zarar azaltma faaliyetlerinden de elde edilebilen (fayda analizleri için kullanışlıdır), farklı durumlardaki senaryoların sonuçlarını karşılaştırmalarına izin verir


Himmet Karaman, MSc

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Diğer Olanakları

• Envanter Araçları: InCast ve BIT.

• “A Guide to Using HAZUS for Mitigation”

• Advanced Engineering Building Module (AEBM): zarar azaltma amacıyla, tekli ve grup bina hasar tahmini sağlar.

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Himmet Karaman, MSc

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AFET ÖNCESİ

AFET SONRASI

GÖRSEL


Himmet Karaman, MSc

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Afet Yönetimi• Acil durum yönetimi, her türlü tehlikeye karşı

hazırlıklı olma, zarar azaltma, müdahale etme ve iyileştirme amacıyla mevcut kaynakları organize eden, analiz, planlama, karar alma ve değerlendirme süreçlerini kapsamaktadır.

• Acil durum yönetiminin amacı, hayat kurtarmak, yaralanmaları önlemek, mal, mülk ve çevreyi korumaktır.

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Himmet Karaman, MSc

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HAZUS ve EAYS

HAZUS-MH

Müdahale & İyileştirme

KayıplarınAzaltılması(Mitigation)

Acil DurumaHazırlıklı Olma

Acil Duruma Hazırlıklı OlmaAcil Durum Müdahale Planlarının Geliştirilmesi

Geçici Yerleşim İhtiyaçlarıEnkaz KaldırmaAcil Durum Enerji ve Su İhtiyaçlarıAcil Durum Tıbbi ServisleriTahliye/Acil Durum Yolu Temizleme

Müdahale Uygulamalarının Organizasyonu

Zarar AzaltmaZarar Azaltma Değerlendirmesi

Risk Altındaki toplulukların belirlenmesiZarar Azaltma Önlemleri

Varolan yapıların güçlendirilmesiKapı/pencere açıklıklarının ve kaplamaların

güçlendirilmesiZarar Azaltma Programları

Tehlikeye karşı dayanıklı bina kodlarına uyum Arazi kullanım planlamaları

Müdahale & İyileştirmeAfet sonrası hasar değerlendirmesiKritik ulaşım aralıkları için müdahale planlamasıKritik altyapının belirlenmesiİyileştirme eylem planlamasıUzun vadeli ekonomik iyileştirme planlaması


Himmet Karaman, MSc

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Zarar Azaltma ve HAZUS

• Zarar azaltmaolanaklarının belirlenmesi

• Alternatif zarar azaltma adımlarının etkinliklerinin tayin edilmesi

• Özel binalar ve Bölgesel bina veritabanları için kod & inşaat kalite matrisinin HAZUS -“Advanced Engineering Building Module” ile elde edilmesi

Örnek Uygulamalar:– Emniyetsiz yapıların

güçlendirilmesi ya da yıkılması

– Tehlikelere karşı dayanıklıbina kodlarının elde edilmesi ve uygulanması

– Gerekli temel tesis güçlendirilmesi

– Zayıf zeminli yerlerde bina yapımını engellemek için arazi kullanım planı

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Himmet Karaman, MSc

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Hazırlıklı Olma ve HAZUS • Acil Durum Müdahale

Planları geliştirilmesi:Geçici YerleşmeEnkaz KaldırmaAcil durum Su ihtiyacıAcil durum Elektrik ihtiyacıBaraj KontrolüAcil durum yol temizliği

• Müdahale egzersizlerinin organizasyonu

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∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀#################################################

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Peak GroundAcceleration

0.25g - 0.40g

Over 0.40g

0.10g - 0.25g

0.05g - 0.10g

Less than 0.05g

Likelihood forBridge Damage [%]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 70 - 100∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀∀ 40 - 70################################################# 25 - 40################################################# 10 - 25################################################# Less than 10

HAZUS Deprem Senaryosuna gHAZUS Deprem Senaryosuna gööre Olure Oluşşabilecek abilecek KKööprprüü HasarlarHasarlarıı


Himmet Karaman, MSc

12

Müdahale, İyileştirme ve HAZUS

• Hızlı durum tesbiti ve konum doğrulama:-Hızlı müdahale

-İyileştirme ve yeniden inşaatın planlanmasıiçin

• İşlevsel modelleme

7


Himmet Karaman, MSc

13

Hasar Tahmini

• Öncelikle geçmişte kaydedilmiş veriden elde edilen günümüz bilgisinin geleceğe ekstrapolasyonu yani dış değerlemesi ile ilgilidir.


Himmet Karaman, MSc

14

HAZUS Deprem Hasar Tahmini• Deprem kayıp tahminleri gelecek depremlerden

doğabilecek zararların, insan kayıpların ve ekonomik etkilerin tahminleridir. Bu tahminler en son bilimsel ve mühendislik araştırmalarına dayanır.

• FEMA HAZUS deprem hasarları tahmini metodolojisi kayıpların tahmini için matematiksel formüller ve bina stoğu, yerel jeoloji ve potansiyel depremlerin konumu ve büyüklüğü, ekonomik veri, ve diğer bilgileri kullanan bir yazılım programıdır. HAZUS Arc GIS’i, yer sarsıntısını, bina hasar modelini ve toplum hakkındaki nüfus bilgisini harita üzerinde göstermek için kullanır.

8


Himmet Karaman, MSc

15

HAZUS Deprem Hasar TahminiVarsayımsal depremin konumu ve büyüklüğütanımlandıktan sonra, HAZUS aşağıda sıralanan verileri tahmin edecektir:

• yer sarsıntısı• hasarlı binaların sayısı• ölü sayısı• ulaşım sistemlerindeki hasarların miktarı• elektrik ve su hatlarındaki kesiklikler • evlerinden ayrılmak zorunda kalan insan sayısı• öngörülen hasarı ve diğer etkileri onarmak için tahmin

edilen bütçe


Himmet Karaman, MSc

16

Hasar Tahmini Metodolojileri

• Faktörleri kararlaştırılmış maksimum kayıtlı hasar (Factored) (asgari yaklaşım)

• Kayıtlı hasar verilerinin istatistiksel analizi• Rasgele Olmayan (Deterministic) GIS

tabanlı hasar modellemesi• Olasılıksal (Probabilistic) GIS tabanlı

hasar modellemesi (azami yaklaşım)

9


Himmet Karaman, MSc

17

GIS Tabanlı Hasar Tahmin Sistemleri

• Deterministik (Rastgele Olmayan) GIS TabanlıHasar Modellemesi Deterministik model, oluşmalarına dair olasılığın kesin ve net etkenleri olamayan belirli senaryoları baz alan tehlike modellerini referans alır.

• Olasılıksal GIS Tabanlı Hasar Modellemesi Olasılıksal model, ilgili bölgeye etki eden birçok olay ve etmen ile ilişkili tüm olasılıkları hesaba katan tehlike modellerini referans alır. Olasılıksal modeller yüzlerce ya da binlerce senaryonun simülasyonlarını baz alır.


Himmet Karaman, MSc

18

60 0 60 120 Miles

-74

-74

-73

-73

-72

-72

40 40

41 41

New Jersey

Connecticut

New YorkManhattanManhattan

= epicenter location

10


Himmet Karaman, MSc

19

30,000

# 2001$ (Thousands)

%

1 126,100 17%2 87,271 12%3 68,018 9%4 77,292 10%5 138,507 19%6 100,900 14%7 23,336 3%8 56,182 8%9 7,719 1%10 14,319 2%11 32,200 4%12 9,078 1%

All 741,485 100%

# 2001$ (Thousands)

%

1 1,788,845 18%2 1,007,499 10%3 749,408 8%4 1,020,821 10%5 1,896,613 19%6 1,305,355 13%7 427,608 4%8 732,339 7%9 125,148 1%

10 213,304 2%11 466,507 5%12 160,700 2%

All 9,907,983 100%

# 2001$ (Thousands)

%

1 7,099,119 16%2 3,115,885 7%3 2,323,419 5%4 3,924,535 9%5 9,661,923 22%6 6,277,506 15%7 2,274,407 5%8 4,037,941 9%9 667,250 2%

10 904,743 2%11 1,829,316 4%12 937,338 2%

All 43,141,264 100%

Above 400,000

120,000

240,000

Total Loss

2001$ (Thousands)

District Key

6.0M5.0M 7.0MDeterministic (Fixed Location)


Himmet Karaman, MSc

20

Probabilistic

Above 400,000

120,000

240,000

Total Loss

2001$ (Thousands)

District Key

30,000

# 2001$ (Thousands)

%

1 1,880 9%2 1,194 6%3 2,338 11%4 798 4%5 733 3%6 1,625 8%7 1,061 5%8 1,875 9%9 2,080 10%10 2,134 10%11 1,137 5%12 4,393 21%

All 21,248 100%

# 2001$ (Thousands)

%

1 91,392 7%2 39,286 3%3 70,927 5%4 60,009 4%5 33,196 2%6 60,205 4%7 126,226 9%8 118,124 8%9 154,943 11%10 183,840 13%11 170,222 12%12 289,588 21%

All 1,397,957 100%

# 2001$ (Thousands)

%

1 593,533 4%2 318,524 2%3 610,193 5%4 560,617 4%5 332,184 2%6 518,071 4%7 1,524,927 11%8 1,096,877 8%9 1,541,557 12%10 1,734,021 13%11 2,059,266 15%12 2,444,632 18%

All 13,334,401 100%

500 year event100 year event 2500 year event

11


Himmet Karaman, MSc

21

HAZUS Hasar Tahmin Metodolojisi

Kamu Sistemleri

Kamu Sistemleri

KritikTesislerKritik

TesislerUlaşım

SistemleriUlaşım

SistemleriBina

StoğuBina

Stoğu

DOĞRUDAN FİZİKSELZARAR

EnkazEnkazYangınYangınSel BasmasıSel Basması HazMatHazMat

DOLAYLI EKONOMİK KAYIPLAR

POTANSIYEL DEPREM TEHLİKELERİ

DOĞRUDAN EKONOMİK /SOSYAL KAYIPLAR

EkonomikEkonomikSığınakSığınakZaiyatZaiyat

TETİKLENMİŞ FİZİKSEL ZARAR

Yer HareketiYer Hareketi Zemin SorunlarıZemin Sorunları


Himmet Karaman, MSc

22

Deprem Tehlikesi• Yer Hareketi

– Özel-konumlu Sarsıntı• Spektral Tepki

• Peak Ground Değerleri

– Bölgesel Zayıflık Fonksiyonları

– Deterministic / Probabilistic – Site-Soil Effects

• Yer Zayıflığı– Sıvılaşma

• Water Table Depth

– Toprak Kayması– Yüzeyde Fay Kırılması

000000000 202020202020202020


101010101010101010










Newport-Inglewood FaultPeak GroundAcceleration

0.25g - 0.40g

Over 0.40g

0.10g - 0.25g

0.05g - 0.10g

Less than 0.05g

VenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCounty

I-405I-405I-405

I-405I-405

I-405I-405I-405I-405 I-5I-5I-5

I-5I-5I-5I-5I-5I-5

Los AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCounty

I-10I-10I-10I-10I-10I-10I-10I-10I-10

Örnek HAZUS çıktısı

12


Himmet Karaman, MSc

23

Envanter Modülü• Nüfus Verisi

• Toplumsal İstatistikler

– Nüfus– Hane Halkı– Yaş Grupları– Etnik Köken– Gelir– Mülkiyet

0 5

Miles

10

San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco San Francisco BayBayBayBayBayBayBayBayBay

AlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlameda

Contra CostaContra CostaContra CostaContra CostaContra CostaContra CostaContra CostaContra CostaContra Costa

San MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan Mateo

San JoaquinSan JoaquinSan JoaquinSan JoaquinSan JoaquinSan JoaquinSan JoaquinSan JoaquinSan JoaquinHayward Fault

Hayward Fault

Hayward Fault

Hayward Fault

Hayward Fault

Hayward Fault

Hayward Fault

Hayward Fault

Hayward Fault

Calaveras Fault

Calaveras Fault

Calaveras Fault

Calaveras Fault

Calaveras Fault

Calaveras Fault

Calaveras Fault

Calaveras Fault

Calaveras Fault

Greenville Fault

Greenville Fault

Greenville Fault

Greenville Fault

Greenville Fault

Greenville Fault

Greenville Fault

Greenville Fault

Greenville Fault

Households withIncome less than 25K

2,000 to 5,0001,000 to 2,000

500 to 1,000200 to 500

0 to 200

HAZUS Nüfus Verisi Örneği


Himmet Karaman, MSc

24

Envanter ToplamaGenel Bina StoğuTemel TesislerKritik TesislerKullanıcı TanımlıYapılarTehlikeli BölgelerToplumsal İstatistiklerUlaşım ve Hizmet Hatları

==================================================================================================

=================================================

==================================================================================================

=================================================

=================================================

================================================= =================================================

=================================================

==================================================================================================

=================================================

===================================================================================================================================================

=================================================

================================================= =================================================

=================================================

=================================================

0 5

Kilometers

10

S

N

Legend

Substation

Refinery

=================================================

Gravely Soil

Sandy Soil

Rock

Soft Soil

Soil Type

Pacific

Ocean

Gas Pipe

13


Himmet Karaman, MSc

25

Doğrudan Fiziksel Zarar

Kamusal SistemlerKamusal Sistemler

Kritik TesislerKritik

TesislerUlaşım

SistemleriUlaşım

SistemleriBina StoğuBina Stoğu

Doğrudan FizikselZarar

∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃

∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃

∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃

∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃

∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃

∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃

∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃ ∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃

∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃

99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999000000000

kilometerskilometerskilometerskilometerskilometerskilometerskilometerskilometerskilometers

101010101010101010555555555

San Andreas Fault

San Andreas Fault

San Andreas Fault

San Andreas Fault

San Andreas Fault

San Andreas Fault

San Andreas Fault

San Andreas Fault

San Andreas Fault

KEYSchoolHospitalEOC

Fire StationPolice Station

99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃∃

60 - 8080 - 100

PGV [cm/sec]Over 100

20 - 40

0 - 1010 - 20

40 - 60


Himmet Karaman, MSc

26

Kamu Hizmet Hatları Modülü

• İçme suyu, atık su, benzin, doğal gaz, elektrik hattı ve iletişim sistemlerini gösterir

• Kırılganlık eğrileri bazlı zarar fonksiyonları

• Spektral parametrelerle (PGA, PGV, vs.) zarar durumu tanımlanır

• Restorasyon eğrileri

14


Himmet Karaman, MSc

27

Depended on:• Available replacement stock • Available man power and equipment

ATC-13 üzerinde bir anayol köprüsü için restorasyon eğrisiPe

rcen

t Fun

ctio

nal

Time (days)

Complete

ModerateMinor Extensive % 80 fonksiyonellik

ve orta hasar durumu için

~ 5 gün

Restorasyon Eğrileri


Himmet Karaman, MSc

28

Doğrudan Ekonomik Kayıplar• Genel Bina Stoğu

– Bina:• Yapısal• Yapısal olmayan• İçerik• İş envanteri

– İş Kesintisi:• Maaş• Gelir• Kira & Yer değiştirme• Mülk Sahibi

• Yaşamsal Hatlar– Doğrudan Tamir Masrafı

000000000 202020202020202020


101010101010101010











VenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaVenturaCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCounty

I-405I-405I-405

I-405I-405

I-405I-405I-405I-405 I-5I-5I-5

I-5I-5I-5I-5I-5I-5

Los AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesLos AngelesCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCountyCounty

I-10I-10I-10I-10I-10I-10I-10I-10I-10

Dollar Losses ($M)[by census tract]

50 - 100 [350 tracts]

10 - 50 [1203 tracts]

1- 10 [818 tracts]

0 - 1 [525 tracts]

Over 100 [113 tracts]

Ekonomik Kayıplar Örneği

15


Himmet Karaman, MSc

29

Hasar Modellemesi• Yerdeğiştirmeye Bağlı Bina Zararı• Her Bina Tipi için Kapasite Eğrisi• Her Nüfus Sayım Alanı için PESH Modülünden

Hesaplanan Yer Hareketi– PGA– 0.2 saniyedeki Spektral İvme– 1.0 saniyedeki Spektral İvme

• Her Nüfus Sayım Alanındaki Her Bina Tipi için Pushover Analizi Kullanılarak Hesaplanmış Bina Tepkisi (Lineer Olmayan Statik Prosedür)


Himmet Karaman, MSc

30

Spektral İvme

• Deprem yer hareketinden dolayı yapıya-bağlı tepki (PGA).

• Spektral ivme haritaları uluslararasıkodlarda, bina üzerindeki tasarım kuvvetini belirlemek için kullanılır.

• 2500 yıllık bir olayın bina üzerindeki etkisini gösterir

16


Himmet Karaman, MSc

31

Bina Tepki Hesabı

05

101520253035

0 1 2 3 4

Displacement

Acc

eler

atio

nPESH Spectrum 5% DampingCapacity CurveDemand Spectrum 20% Damping

Performance Point


Himmet Karaman, MSc

32

Bina Hasar Seviyeleri• Beş Hasar Durumu Tanımlanmıştır

– Hasarsız– Az– Orta– Büyük– Tamamen

• Her Bina Tipi için Hasar Durumunda Kırılganlık Eğrileriİlişkili Yer değiştirme

• Her Hasar Durumunda Sonuçlar, Binanın Yüzdesi Olarak Gösterilir

• Hasar Sonuçları, Ekonomik Kayıpları Hesaplamak için Kullanılır

17


Himmet Karaman, MSc

33

Bölgesel Bina Tepkisi• Önemli Binalar için Bölgesel Tepki

– Hastaneler– Okullar– Afet Yönetim Merkezleri– Kullanıcı Tanımlı

• Bölgedeki Yer Hareketi Yerine Nüfus Sayımı Yapılan Alanın Kitle Merkezi Baz Alınır

• Diğer Modüller için Kullanılan Hasar Sonuçları– Sığınak– İşlevsellik


Himmet Karaman, MSc

34

Metodoloji

Deprem Tehlikesinin TanımlanmasıSismik Kaynaklar

Zayıflama İlişkileriYineleme İlişkileri

Envanter Özelliklerinin TanımlanmasıYapı Konumu, Değeri, İnşaa Yılıİnşaat Sınıfı, Kullanım Sınıfı,

Toprak Türü

Envanter Zararının TahminiBina Kapasitesi veKırılganlık Eğrileri

Ekonomik Kayıpların HesaplanmasıBeklenen Kayıplar

Olası Ortalama Kayıplar (PML)

18


Himmet Karaman, MSc

35

Deprem Hasar Tahmini Modeli

• Model, Potansiyel Deprem Tehlikeleri (PESH), Envanter Verisi (ID), Doğrudan Fiziksel Zarar (DPD), Tetiklenmiş Fiziksel Zarar (IPD), Doğrudan Ekonomik/Sosyal Kayıplar (DSEL) ve Dolaylı Ekonomik Kayıplar (IEL) adlımodüllerden oluşmaktadır.

• Bu modüller, bazı modüllerin çıktıları ile diğer modüller için girdi olacak şekilde birbirlerine bağlıdırlar.


Himmet Karaman, MSc

36

Girdi ve Çıktılar

19


Himmet Karaman, MSc

37

Genel Bina Stoğu / Kayıp Tahmini

Toplam Ekonomik KayToplam Ekonomik Kayııp Etkilenen p Etkilenen alan ya da tek bir Nalan ya da tek bir Nüüfus sayfus sayıım m blobloğğu iu iççin hesaplanabilirin hesaplanabilir


Himmet Karaman, MSc

38

20


Himmet Karaman, MSc

39

HAZTURK Geliştirme Takımı• Project Managers

– İTÜ/CEDM ve NIBS katılımcıları• Building Damage Functions

– İTÜ/CEDM katılımcıları• Lifeline Damage Functions

– İTÜ/CEDM katılımcıları• Casualties

– İTÜ/CEDM katılımcıları• Shelter

– İTÜ/CEDM ve NIBS katılımcıları• Economic Loss

– İTÜ/CEDM katılımcıları• Software/Inventory

– İTÜ/CEDM katılımcıları


Himmet Karaman, MSc

40

Teşekkürler

Documents

HAZUS (Hazards US)karamanhi/HAZUS-HiM.pdfHimmet Karaman, MSc 17 GIS Tabanlı Hasar Tahmin Sistemleri • Deterministik (Rastgele Olmayan) GIS Tabanlı Hasar Modellemesi Deterministik