Hệ hỗ trợ ra quyết định

7/29/2019 H h tr ra quyt nh

1/71

BI 2. CU TRC HH TR QUYT

NH

B mn : HTTTQLKhoa : QLCN


2/71

NI DUNG

A. CC CU THNH CA H H TRQUYT NH (HHTQ)

B. QUN L D LIU

C. QUN L M HNH


3/71

1. CC THNH PHN CAH H TR QUYT NH (HHTQ)

Ni dung

NNG LC CA HHTQ CC THNH PHN CA HHTQ PHN LOI HHTQTHEO KT XUT H THNG NNG LC CA HHTQTHEO CU TRC THNH

PHN


4/71

NNG LC CA HHTQ

H h trquyt nh

Bi ton na cu trc Cho cc nh qun lcc cp

Cho nhm & c nhn

Quyt nh linthuc/tun t

H trtm kim, thitk, chn la

H trcc dng phongcch v qu trnh

C tnh thch nghi v

linh hot

Ni kt WEB

Truy t d liu

M hnh ha & phn

tch

Ngi dng cui cngd dng xy dng

Yu t con ngi lquyt nh

Hiu dng ch khngphi hiu qu

D dng, c tnhtng tc


5/71

CC THNH PHN CA HHTQ

Qun ldliu

Dliu: trong

v ngoi

Cc h thng my

tnh khc

Phn h giao dinngi dng

Nh qun l (ngidng)

Internet, intranet v

extranet

Cs k i n

t h c t c h c

Cc m hnh ngoiQun l m hnh

Cc phn h datrn kin thc


6/71

Phn h qun l d liu

Ti chnh Sn xut Tip th Nhn s

Cc ngund liu niCc ngun

d liu ngoi

Cs k i n

t h c t c h c

D liu cnhn, ring

t

Nh kho dliu ca t

chc

Qun l giaodin

Qun l mhnh

Phn h datrn kin

thc

Trch xutTruy vn

Danh mc

H qun trc sdliu

Truy cp Cht vn Cp nht Bo biu Xo b

Cs d l i u

h t r q u y t

n h


7/71

Phn h qun l m hnh

Qun ldliu

Qun lgiao din

Phn h datrn kin thc

Qun l c sm hnhCc lnh ca m hnh: to miBo tr: cp nhtGiao din c sd liuNgn ng

m hnh ha

Cc m hnh (c sm hnh)Chin lc, chin thut, vn hnhThng k, ti chnh, tip th ..Giao din c sd liuCc khi xy dng m hnh

Danh mcm hnh

B xl lnh, tchhp v thc thi

m hnh


8/71

Phn h qun l da trn kin thc Cung cp kh nng cn gii quyt mt vi kha

cnh ca bi ton v tng cng nng lc vn hnh

ca cc thnh phn khc ca HHTQ Silverman (1995) ngh 3 cch tch hp cc h

chuyn gia da trn kin thc vi m hnh ton: Tr gip quyt nh da trn kin thc - gip h tr

cc bc ca qu trnh quyt nh khng gii quytc bng ton Cc h m hnh ha quyt nh thng minh - gip

ngi dng xy dng, p dng v qun l th vincc m hnh

Cc h chuyn gia phn tch quyt nh - tch hpcc phng php l thuyt nghim ngt v tnh btnh vo cc c s kin thc ca h chuyn gia

Khi c thnh phn ny, cc tn gi: HHTQ thng

minh, HHT chuyn gia, HHTQ tch cc, HHTQ datrn kin thcS


9/71

Phn h giao din ngi dng

Qun l

dliu

Phn h da

trn kin thc

Qun l m hnhv h qun tr c

s m hnh

Qun l dliuv h qun tr c

s d l i u

Qun l giaodin ngi dng

B xl ngnngtnhin

NhpCc ngn ng

hnh ng

XutCc ngn ng

hin th

Ngi dng

B xl ngnngtnhin


10/71

PHN LOI HHTQ THEO KT XUT HTHNG(Alter, 1980)

Hng mc Phm tr Kiu vnhnh

Kiu tcv

Ngidng

Mu sdng

Thigian

H lu trh s

T r u y x u t c c

h n g m c d

l i u

V n h n h N h n v i n

c h c n n g ,

k h n g q u n

l

C h t v n ng i n

B t k Dliu

H phn tchd liu

Phn tch btk cc tp tin

d liu

Phn tch

vn hnhNh phn

tch hay

nhn vinchc nng,c q u n l

X l v hint h d l i u

B t k h a y

c c h u k

Dliuhay m

hnh

H thng tinphn tch

Phn tch btk lin in nhiuCSDL v cc

m hnh nh

Phn tch,

lp khoch

Nh phn

tch

Tho chngc c b o c o

c b i t ; p h t

t r i n c c m

hnh nh

B t k ,

t h e o y u

c u

M hnh Cc m hnhk ton

Cc php tnh

tiu chun clng cc ktqu tng laid a t h e o k

t o n

L p k

h o c h ;

h o c h

n h n g n

s c h

N h p h n

t c h h a y n h

q u n l

N h p: cc clng hotngX u t : c c k t

q u t i n t

c c

lng

T h e o c h u

k ( t u n ,

t h n g ,

nm ..)


11/71

PH N LOI HHTQ THEO K T XU T HTHNG (tt)

Hng mc Phm tr Kiu vnhnh

Kiu tcv

Ngidng

Mu sdng

Thigian

Cc m hnh

biu dinc tnh ktqu ca cchnh ngnht nh

Lp khoch;hochnh ngnsch

Nh phn

tch

Nhp: ccquyt nh cthXut: cc ktqu c clng

Chu khay bt k(phn tch

bt k)

Cc m hnhti u

T n h g i i p h p

t i u i v i

b i t o n t

h p

L p k

h o c h ; c p

p h t t i

n g u y n

N h p h n

t c h

N h p : c c

m c t i u v

r n g b u c

X u t : c c k t

q u

L p k

h o c h ;

h o c h

n h n g n

s c h

Cc m hnh

k i n n g h

T h c h i n c c

t n h t o n s i n h

r a m t q u y t

nh c n g h

V n h n h N h n v i n

c h

c nng,k h n g q u n

l

N h p : m t

c u t r c v

tnh hungq u y t n h

X u t : q u y t

nh c n g h

Hng ngy

h a y c c h u

k


12/71

NNG LC CA HHTQ THEO CU TRC(R.Sprague et al, 1982)

Nng lc tng qutTo sinh cc h h tr quyt nh nhanhchng v d dngH trqu trnh thit k c tnh lp

Nng lc chungD dng

Cch dng

thng thngl sa i vxy dng hh tr quyt

nh

Truy t ntm rng ccdng thc,kiu v ngund liu ivi ph rngcc bi ton

v bi cnh

Truy t ntm rng cckh nngp h n t c h v i

m t s c c

n g h h a y

hng dn


13/71

NNG LC CA HHTQ THEO CU TRC (tt)Nng lc cc thnh phnGiao din ngi

dng

D liu M hnh

1. Tm rng ccdng thc v thitb xut2. Tm rng ccthit b nhp chongi dng3. Tm rng ccphong cch ithoi v kh nngb i n d c h

4. H tr truynthng gia ccngi dng v vinh xy dng5. H trkinthc ca ngi

dng (t liu)6. Nm bt, lu

t r v p h n t c h

c c i t h o i ( t h e o

di cc i thoi)7. H trithoi thch nghi vlinh hot

1. Tm rng ccdng thc v kiud liu2. Trch xut,nm bt v tchhp3. Chc nngt r u y x u t d l i u

- thu np/cht vn-bo co/hin th- ngi dng/thaotc d liu hiuqu4. Chc nngq u n l c sdl i u

5.

Tm r

ng cccch nhn logic v

d liu6. T liu had liu7. Theo dicch dng d liu8. H trdliu thch nghi vlinh hot

1. Th vin ccm hnh tonn c sm hnh-nhiu kiu-duy tr, phn loiv tch hp- tin x l thv i n

2. Phng tinxy dng m hnh3. Phng tindng v thao tcm hnh

4. Chc nngq u n l c s mhnh

5.

T liu ham hnh

6. Theo dicch dng m

hnh

7. H trmhnh thch nghi v

linh hot


14/71

2. PHN H QUN L D LIU

Ni dung

Bn cht v ngun gc d liu Thu thp v cht lng d liu C s d liu

Gii php d liu hin ti


15/71

BN CHT & NGUN GC D LIU

Phn bit gia d liu, thng tin v kin thcM t v s vt, hin tng, giao tc c ghi nhn,

phn loi v lu tr nhng cha c t chc hit ngha nht nh

D liu c t chc c ngha i vi nginhn.Mt p dng ca h h tr qun l: x l cc hngmc d liu c c cc kt qu c ngha chohnh ng/quyt nh d kin

Cc hng mc d liu v/hay thng tin c t chcv x l nm bt/hi t s hiu bit, kinhnghim, tri thc hc tp v k nng chuyn gia trnmt vn nht nh.Kin thc c th l ng dng ca d liu v thngtin ra quyt nh


16/71

BN CHT & NGUN GC D LIU (tt)

D liu bao gm cc dng ti liu, hnh nh, bn , m thanh v

hot hnh; c th bao gm cc dng khi nim, suy ngha hay

kin; c th nm cc dng lu tr v t chc khc nhau

trc v sau khi s dng; c th dng th hay c x l

3 ngun d liu chnh: trong, ngoi v c nhn

Trong:ca t chc; tr mt hay nhiu v tr khcnhau Ngoi:cc t chc khc cung ng C nhn:d liu v kin thc ca c nhn c lu

tr dnh cho hot ng ca c t chc


17/71

THU THP V CHT LNG D LIU

Thu thp: th cng hay qua thit b

Phng php thu thp ph bin: bng cuhi, quan st, nghin cu thi gian, phngvn, cm bin, my qut ..

D thu thp cch no, d liu cn hp thcv lc li: cht lng v tnh ton vn cad liu c ngha ti hn cho cc h h trqun l/quyt nhTrnh hin tng rc u vo, rc u ra(GIGO)

Quan trng: khung c s d tm, ngnnga v hiu chnh sai s trong thu thp dliu cho h h tr quyt nh (Arinze &Banerjee, 1992)


18/71

Vn lin quan n d liu(Alter, 1980)

Vn Ngun gc in hnh Gii php kh dD liu khngng

T o s i n h d l i u b t c n

D l i u t h n h p vo khngc h n h x c

D l i u b thay i khngh p l

X y d n g c c h n h p

d l i u c t n h h

t h n g

N h p d l i u t

ng

K i m s o t c h t

l n g k h i t o s i n hd l i u

X y d n g c h n g

trnh an ton thchh p

D l i u k h n g

k p t h i

Phng php to sinh dl i u khng nhanh so vin h u c u

S a i h thng tos i n h d l i u

S d

ng mi trngWEB ly d liuc p n h t

D l i u cnh ch shay o lngk h n g c h n h

x c

D l i u th c thu thpk h n g p h h p v i m c

t i u p h n t c h d l i u

D n g c c m h n h p h c t p

X y d n g h t h n g

o lng hay t hpd l i u

D n g n h k h o d

l i u

Dng cc ng c

tm kim thch hp

X y d n g c c m

hnh n gin hnh a y c t n h k t h p

c a o h n

K h n g c d

l i u c n t h i t

D l i u c n t h i t c h a c

l u t r b a o g i c

D l i u y u c u c h a c

b a o g i

T i n o n n h n g d

l i u c n c h o t n g

l a i

D n g n h k h o d

l i u

T o s i n h d l i u m i


19/71

Cht lng d liu c bit quan trng Cc phm tr v th nguyn v cht lng (Strong,

1997): Ng cnh: tnh thch ng, gi tr tng thm, tnh

kp thi, tnh y v khi lng d liu Ni ti: tnh chnh xc, khch quan, tin cy c v

danh ting

D truy cp: truy t c v mc an ton truy cpi din: kh nng phn gii, d hiu, th hin sc

tch v th hin nht qun Mt vn chnh l tnh ton vn (integrity). lnh

vc nh kho d liu, c 5 kha cnh sau (Gray &Watson, 1998):

ng iu (uniformity) Phin bn (version) Tnh y (completeness)

Tnh ph hp (conformity)Dn xut enealo /drill down


20/71

C S D LIU

Tnh c lp d liu: chng trnh ng dng btbin trc cc chin lc t chc v lu tr d liu

- u im v l do t chc CSDL

H qun tr c s d liu (DBMS):Giao tip gia ngi dng v CSDL

Qun l d liucp nht, thm, bt, xa thng tin trong kho dliu;- truy xut d liu,

- hin th/sinh bo co Thng thng d liu t CSDL c trch xut v

t vo mt m hnh thng k, ton, hay ti chnh x l hay phn tch thm na


21/71

C S D LIU (tt) Cc dng m hnh ca CSDL:Quan h: d liu v quan h tng ng u

dng bng 2 chiu; l cch t chc ca nhiu nhkho d liu Phn cp: cc hng mc d liu nm trong hnh

cy/s phn cp; dng ch yu trong x lgiao tc c yu cu cao v tnh hiu qu

Mng li: cho php cc lin kt phc tp giacc hng mc d liu; tit kim khng gian bcha qua vic dng chung mt s hng mc

Hng i tng: d liu c quan nim hadi dng cc i tng (d liu + chc nng)

duy tr cc quan h t nhin gia chng ng bao (encapsulation) a hnh (polymorphism) Tha k (inheritance) Tnh dng li (reuse)


22/71

C S D LIU (tt) Cc dng CSDL c th (khng loi tr): a mi trng (multimedia based): d liu l cc i

tng nh phn ln, thng th hin cc dng thngtin cho php tch hp c m thanh ni, hnh nhng 3 chiu ..

t liu (document based): cc h thng qun l tiliu in t (EDM) thng c dng cho lu tr vphn phi thng tin khi lng ln, cho t ng hadng cng vic ca t chc

thng minh (intelligent): c nng lc suy din (nhvo cng ngh tr tu nhn to (AI) nh h chuyn

gia (ES), mng thn kinh nhn to (ANN)

Ngun d liu ngoi: Internet

cc kho/ngn hng d liu thng mi ha (dch vcun c /bn d li u


23/71

GII PHP D LIU HIN TI Nh kho d liu

Vai tr:cung ng d liu h tr ra quyt

nh (ch yu) v cc ng dng thng tinkhc (nh vo c im ci tin v m rng

phm vi, chnh xc v tnh d truy tca d liu)

Ngi dng:2 lpNgi dng trc tip: cc nh phn tch th

trng, hoch nh ti chnh .. cn d liu

tin hnh cng vic tng ngNgi pht trin ng dng: xy dng ng

dng cho cc ngi dng trc tip; cn hiu

r v t chc v truy xut nh kho


24/71

Nh kho d liu (tt) Kin trc: thng l 3 mc (Gray & Watson,

1998)

Nh kho dliu

Bn thn d liu

Thu thp dliu

Trch xut d liu t cch sn c, ngun ngoiCng c, tng kt d liu

Np d liu vo nh kho

Truy xut dliu

Truy t v phn tchd liu trong nh kho

Back-end

Front-end


25/71

Nh kho d liu (tt) Cc bin th:

Kho d liu vn hnh(ODS): p dng kthut nh kho d liu vo cc h x l giaotc

Siu th d liu(data mart): dng thu nh

ca nh kho d liu, h tr cho 1 n v kinhdoanh/phng chc nngSiu th d liu ph thuc: phn b sung ca

nh kho d liu

Siu th d liu c lp: khng cn n nhkho d liuNh kho d liu(quy c): h tr ton b t

chc


26/71

Nh kho d liu (tt) So snh gia kho d liu vn hnh (ODS) v nh

kho d liu (DW) (Gray & Watson, 1998)

Kho d liu vn hnh Nh kho d liu

D liu theo ch D liu tch hp

D liu thay iD liu c cp nht khi thayiCh c d liu hin tiChu k lm ti d liu ngn

Ch c d liu chi titDng cho cc quyt nh ngnhn

D liu theo ch D liu tch hp

D liu khng thay iD liu gi nguynD liu hin ti v d liu lchsChu k lm ti d liu di

D liu chi tit v d liu tngktDng cho hoch nh di hn


27/71

Nh kho d liu (tt) c im:

c im M tHng ch D liu t chc theo cch thc ngi

dng tham chiuTch hp D liu sch, loi b tnh thiu nht

qunKhng thay i D liu ch c, ngi dng khng

thay i cChui thi gian D liu l chui thi gian, khng phi

l trng thi hin tic tng kt D liu vn hnh khi cn thit c kt

hp li thnh dng c th dng ccho quyt nh

Kch c ln hn Lu gi theo chui thi gian tc l gili nhiu d liu

Khng cchun ha

C th d tha d liu

Siu d liu D liu v d liu cho c 2 loi ngidng nh kho d liu

Nhp lng D liu vn hnh (cc h sn c) cngvi cc ngun ngoi


28/71

X l phn tch trc tuyn

tng c bn: ngi dng c th thao tc trncc m hnh d liu mc t chc theo nhiu chiu

c th hiu c cc thay i din ra iu kin trin khai x l phn tch trc tuyn(OLAP):

Yu cu v d liu mang tnh phn tch, khng phil giao tc

Thng tin c phn tch khng phi l thng tinva nhp vo t chc

Cn n mt s ln cc tnh ton v kt hp cc dliu mc giao tc

Kiu d liu c bn l kiu s Cn n cc cch nhn lin chc nng v d liu

theo nhiu chiu Cc phn t nhn din cc im d liu tng i

tnh ti theo thi gian


29/71

X l phn tch trc tuyn (tt)

12 quy tc (Codd, 1993)

1. Cch nhn a chiu 7. X l ng ma trn tha

2. Trong sut i vi ngidng

8. H tr a ngi dng

3. D truy t 9. Cc vn hnh a chiu

4. Vn bo co nht qun 10. X l trc gic d liu

5. Kin trc khch/ch 11. Vn bo co linh hot

6. Cc chiu bnh ng 12. Mc kt hp v s chiukhng hn ch

Kh i d li


30/71

Khai m d liu

L chc nng khm ph kin thc, c dng khicc quan h gia cc bin d liu khng c dng

ton hc, cc m hnh kh xy dng

5 kiu thng tin c th thu nhn c Phn loi:rt ra cc c tnh nh ngha ca 1

nhmGhp nhm:nhn din nhm phn t c chung 1c im Kt hp:nhn din cc quan h gia cc s kin

xy ra cng mt thi im Tun t:nh kt hp, ngoi tr cc quan h tn

ti trong mt khong thi gianD bo:c lng cc gi tr tng lai trn cc

khun mu vi cc tp d liu ln


31/71

Khai m d liu (tt) Cc cng c khai m d liu ch yu:

Suy l da vo cc trng hp (case-basedreasoning): vi cc trng hp lch s, cth dng cng nhn cc khun mu

Tnh ton thn kinh (neural computing):dng cc d liu lch s cng nhn cckhun mu

Tc nhn thng minh (intelligent agent):

tip cn rt c trin vng thu thp thngtin t cc CSDL ngoi ti (nh Internet)Khc:cy quyt nh, quy np lut (rule

induction) v trc quan ha d liu

Kh i d li (tt)


32/71

Khai m d liu (tt)

Cc th d v nhn din c hi to ra li thcnh tranh:

Tip th: tin on khch hng no s mua snphm; phn khc tp hp khch hng ..

Ngn hng: d bo cc mc tn dng xu; loi

khch hng c th chp nhn ngh cho vaymi ..Bn hng: d bo khi lng bn, xc nh cc

mc tn kho hp l ..Sn xut: d bo thi im my mc trc trc;

xc nh yu t kim sot ti u nng lc snxut ..

Giao dch chng khon: tin on thi im gicn phiu thay i; xc nh thi im bn

chng khon ..

Kh i b


33/71

Khai m vn bn p dng k thut khai m d liu vo cc tp tin

vn bn t c tnh cu trc cc ti liu c th ccu trc v khun dng ch khng phi v ni dung

Khai m vn bn (text mining) gip cc t chc: Tm ra cc ni dung n ca ti liu, gm c cc quan

h c ch khc Xc nh quan h gia cc n v trong t chc i

vi cng ti liuGhp nhm ti liu theo cc ch chung TD:

(i) D tm trong CSDL ca cc ti liu theo t hpcc t kha rt ra tp cc ti liu cn thit,

(ii) Chia tp cc ti liu c c theo ch - ctrng bi danh sch cc t kha rt ra t vn bnkhng c khun dng ca ti liu. Ch quan tmc th hin qua cc danh sch cc t kha va k

T h d li t h hi


34/71

Trc quan ha d liu v tnh a chiu X l phn tch trc tuyn (OLAP) ngoi thu thp v

phn tch cn trnh byvphn giid liu cho ngidng

Xu hng mi: ng dng trc quan ha d liu mc xnghip (OLIVE: online visualization for an enterprise) ly biu lm trung tm v cung cp cho t chc nnglc thng minh kinh doanhc tnh trc quan

D liu tng hp c th c t chc theo cc cch khc

nhau phn tch v trnh by: tnh a chiu(multidimensionality) -> nh qun l c th nhn d liutheo cch khc vi nh phn tch h thng; cc trnh bykhc nhau v d liu c sinh ra nhanh chng, d dng

Tnh a chiu rt thng dng trong cc h h tr quytnh v h thng tin lnh o, c th hin vi cc mc

phc tp khc nhau 3 yu t trong tnh a chiu: chiu (sn phm, phn khc th trng, knh phn phi

..), thc o (tin, khi lng bn, s lng ngi ..),

thi gian (hng ngy, tun, thng ..)


35/71

Trc quan ha d liu v tnh a chiu (tt)

Hn ch ca tnh a chiu (Gartner Group,

1998)CSDL a chiu tn nhiu ch hn CSDL

quan h truyn thngCSDL a chiu t tin hn CSDL quan hVic np CSDL a chiu tn nhiu thi

gian v ngun lc h thng my tnhGiao din v bo tr CSDL a chiu phc

tp hn nhiu so vi CSDL quan h

H th ti l hi th


36/71

H thng tin a l v hin thc o

H thng tin a l (GIS)l mt h thng nmbt, lu tr, kim tra, tch hp, x l v hin th d

liu bng cch dng cc bn s ha c trng h thng l mi i tng s ha haymi bn ghi u c mt v tr a l tng ng.Bng vic tch hp cc bn vi cc CSDL hngkhng gian v cc CSDL khc, ngi dng c thsinh ra thng tin v hoch nh, gii quyt vn ,ra quyt nh, tng nng sut v cht lng caquyt nh ..

Ngy nay, hu ht h thng tin a l u h trWEB/internet/intranet

Hin thc o:mi trng ho 3 chiu tngtc vi ngi dng v l cc p dng da vo mytnh

Hin thc o bt u thm nhp vo cc ngdng kinh doanh (xem th d trang sau)

H thng tin a l v hin thc o (tt)


37/71

H thng tin a l v hin thc o (tt)Sn xut Hun luyn

Kim th thit k v phn gii kt quPhn tch mc an ton

Nguyn mu ha oPhn tch k thutPhn tch ng thi ca nhn vin trong sn xutM phng o dy chuyn lp rp, sn xut v bo tr

Kin trc Thit k nh, kt cu, cng trnh ..Kinhdoanh

Biu din v nh gi bt ng snQung coBiu din thng mi in tBiu din d liu ti chnh

Nghincu -gio dc

Phng th nghim oCu hnh cc h tinh t, sao ..Biu din cc biu thc ton phc tp

Gii tr Bo tng oTr chi 3 chiu ..


38/71

3. PHN H QUN L M HNHNi dung

Cc vn trong xy dng m hnh Cc loi m hnh Cc cng c m hnh ha : M HNH HA BNG BNG TNH

M HNH HA BNG PHN TCH QUYT NH M HNH HA BNG QUY HOCH TON HC M HNH HA BNG HEURISTIC M PHNG

M HNH HA A CHIU OLAP M HNH HA M PHNG TRC QUAN CC B PHN MM NH LNG OLAP QUN L C S M HNH

V N M H NH


39/71

V N M H NH L phn t ch cht trong hu ht h h tr quyt nh v

l iu kin cn trong HHTQ da vo m hnh (model-based DSS).

C nhiu lp m hnh km theo l cc k thut x l thao

tc m hnh c th tng ng Cc vn chnh: nhn din bi ton v phn tch mitrng, nhn din bin s, d bo, a m hnh, cc phmtr m hnh, qun l m hnh v m hnh ha da vo kinthc

M hnh ha l tc v khng n gin. Ngi xy dng m

hnh phi cn bng gia tnh n gin ca m hnh vi ccyu cu biu din m hnh c th nm bt thc ticn thit cho ngi ra quyt nh

M phng l k thut m hnh ha thng dng; dng tmhiu vn tuy khng nht thit phi tm ra c cc giiphp bin th; m rng qu trnh ra quyt nh ca t chc

v cho php t chc xem xt tc ng/nh hng ca ccchn la tng lai. M phng tit kim rt nhiu chi ph v thi gian rt d

thay i m hnh hot ng ca mt h thng vt l bngm hnh ha my tnh

M hnh c th c pht trin v ci t bng mt s ccngn ng lp trinh (th h 3, 4 ..) v h thng phn mmkhc nhau

Cc vn


40/71

Cc vn TD h h tr quyt nh ca P&G v cc nh cung cp

gm: M hnh sinh gi ph (da vo gii thut) dng c

lng cc chi ph vn ti. M hnh c xy dng trctip vo trong h thng M hnh d bo nhu cu (da vo thng k) M hnh v tr trung tm phn phi dng cc d liu

tng hp v c gii bng quy hoch nguyn/quy

hoch tuyn tnh M hnh vn ti (trng hp c bit ca m hnh quyhoch tuyn tnh) dng xc nh tuyn tt nht tngun sn phm n trung tm phn phi v ri nkhch hng. c gii bng b phn mm thng misn c v c kt hp lng vi m hnh v tr trung tm

trn. H thng phi giao tip vi phn mm thngmi v tch hp cc m hnh M hnh m phng ri ro v ti chnh, c xem xt

mt s yu t nh tnh yu cu phn gii ca conng

H thng tin a l (thc t l m hnh ha v dliu) dng cho giao din ngi dng

Cc vn (tt)


41/71

Cc vn (tt) Nhn din vn v phn tch mi trng: Duyt v phn tch mi trng theo di, duyt xt

v phn gii thng tin thu thp c; xem xt phm

vi ca lnh vc, cc lc lng v ng hc ca mitrng Nhn din vn ha ca t chc, cu trc t chc v

qu trnh ra quyt nh ca t chc (ai, mc tptrung ha ..)

Bi ton phi c hiu thng nht mi kha cnh

sinh ra c m hnh h tr quyt nh Nhn din cc bin s ca m hnh Xc nh cc bin s ca m hnh (quyt nh, kt

qu, khng kim sot c ..) cng vi cc mi linh

K thut: dng cc s nh hng (influencediagrams) biu din ha ca cc m hnh ton - K thut tng qut hn: bn nhn thc (cognitive

map) gip hiu bi ton tt hn, nht l v cc bins v mi lin h

Cc vn (tt)


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Cc vn (tt) D bo: Bn cht ca xy dng v x l cc m hnh (cc kt

qu ca quyt nh ch xy ra tng lai)

H h tr quyt nh: c bn l xc nh nhng g sdin ra (khc vi MIS truyn thng: bo co nhng gang hay xy ra)

a m hnh: C nhiu m hnh trong h thng: chun v t xy

dng Mi m hnh th hin mt kha cnh khc nhau ca

bi ton Mt vi m hnh l tiu chun v ci t sn trong cc

cng c pht trin v b to sinh DSS Mt vi cng l tiu chun nhng ch dng cc phn

mm ngoi, c th giao tip vi DSS Cc m hnh phi chun c th c xy dng t u Th d ni P&G: m hnh v tr, m hnh chin

lc sn phm, m hnh d bo nhu cu, m hnh tnhph, m hnh m phng ri ro v ti chnh, m hnh

h thng tin a l (GIS)

C (tt)


43/71

Cc vn (tt) Cc phm tr m hnh

Phm tr Qu trnh vmc tiu Kthut i din

Ti u ha bi tonv i t p h n g n

Tm ra gii php tt nht t mts t p h n g n

B n g q u y t n h , c y q u y t

n h

T i u h a q u a g i i

t h u t

Tm ra gii php tt nht t mts l n h a y v h n c c p h n g n

b ng qu trnh ci thin tngb c

M hnh quy hoch tuynt n h , q u y h o c h t o n h c , m

hnh mng li

T i u h a q u a b i u

t h c g i i t c h

Tm ra gii php tt nht trongm t b c b n g m t c n g t h c

M t s m hnh tn kho

M p h n g Tm g i i php tt hay tt nhtt r o n g s cc phng n ( kimt r a ) b n g t h c n g h i m

M t v i l o i m p h n g

B t k T m g i

i php tt bng cchd n g c c q u y t c

Q u y h o c h b t k , h c h u y n

g i a

C c m h n h k h c G i i t n h h u n g w h a t - i f b n g

c c h d n g c n g t h c

M h n h t i c h n h , h n g i

C c m h n h t i n

onTin on tng lai cho mt kchb n

Cc m hnh d bo, phn tchM a r k o v

Cc vn (tt)


44/71

Cc vn (tt) Qun l m hnh: nh vo h qun l c s m

hnh (MBMS)

M hnh ha da vo kin thc: Cc HHTQ thng dng cc m hnh nh lng,

khc cc h chuyn gia thng thin v cc mhnh nh tnh v cc m hnh da trn kin thc

Cc vn v kin thc l cn thit xy dngcc m hnh kh dng

Ch :

Xu hng: cc m hnh trong sut i vi ngidng

M hnh ha khng ch l phn tch d liu bngcc ng xu hng v phng php thng k

S nh hng


45/71

S nh hng Biu din ha hay s /bn ca m hnh Dng h tr vic tm hiu, thit k v pht trin

m hnh; nht l biu din bn cht cc quan hv tp trung vo cc kha cnh chnh ca m hnh

Phng tin truyn thng trc quan cho ngixy dng m hnh/nhm pht trin

Th hin nh hng/tc ng ca 1 bin ln 1bin khc

C th xy dng n mc ty v chi tit v phc tp; cho php nh x tt c cc bin sv biu din mi quan h v chiu hng nhhng

Vi dng thc biu din (bn di: Bodily,1985) C cc sn phm phn mm dng to sinh v

thao tc trn cc s nh hng thng gmquy hoch tuyn tnh, cy quyt nh, m phngMonte Carlo .. Nn cc bng tnh trc quan vm hnh hoch nh ti chnh ngy cng t cs dng hn

S nh hng (tt)


46/71

S nh hng (tt)

Quy c

Bin quyt nh

Bi n khng ki m sot c / bi n trung gian

Bin kt qu: trung gian / cui cng

Chc chn

Bt nh

S lng Li tc

S lngLi tc

Bi n r i ro (c d u ~trn tn bin)

C u

Doanh s

Thin hng (thnggia cc bin kt qu)

Cc mi tn c th l 1 chi u hay 2 chi u ty thuc vo chi u hng nhhng ca cp bin s

M hnh tnh v ng


47/71

M hnh tnh v ng M hnh tnh: th hin bc tranh ti thi im ca tnh

hung. Cc kha cnh ca bi ton c xt trong mt thik/ khung thi gian nht nh (c th cun v tng lai).

Cc tnh hung c gi s l s lp li vi tp cc iukin ng nht Gi nh: c c tnh n nh ca d liu TD: quyt nh sn xut/mua 1 sn phm; bo co thu

nhp hng qu/nm; M phng qu trnh (tnh - lm vic trn cc trng thi n

nh tm ra cc thng s ti u ) thng c dngnh cng c ch yu thit k qu trnh

M hnh ng: biu din cc kch bn thay i theo thigian

Ph thuc thi gian; cc trng thi thay i theo thi gian Thng dng to sinh v biu din cc xu hng v

khun mu theo thi gian M phng ng: th hin cc din tin khi cc iu kin

theo thi gian khc vi cc trng thi n nh thngc dng thit vk kim sot cc h thng

TD: d bo li-l trong 5 nm vi cc nhp lng nh giph, s lng .. thay i theo tng nm

M hnh bt nh ri ro v chc chn


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M hnh bt nh, ri ro v chc chn

M hnh chc chn: tng i d pht trin, giiquyt v c th sinh ra cc gii php ti u

Cc bi ton c mt s ln/v hn cc gii phpkh thi c bit quan trng Cc m hnh ti chnh c xy dng trong iu

kin chc chn

M hnh bt nh: bng cch thu thp thm thngtin, c gng a bi ton tr v dng chc chnhay dng ri ro

M hnh ri ro: cc quyt nh kinh doanh c

a ra di cc ri ro gi nh.i khi bit c xc sut ca cc s kin xy ra

trong tng lai Cc trng hp khc (bt nh): c lng cc

ri ro v gi s cc tnh hung ri ro xy ra

M HNH HA BNG BNG TNH


49/71

M HNH HA BNG BNG TNH Bng tnh:phn mm mnh, linh hot v d dng,

cho php to sinh cc ng dng trong kinh doanh,k thut, ton v khoa hc .. vi tp cc hm mnhv ti chnh, thng k, ton ..

Km theo l cc thnh phn cng thm (add-ins)gip xy dng v gii cc lp m hnh c th

L cng c m hnh ha thng dng nht ca ngidng cui cng

C cc chc nng v phn tch what-if, d tm mctiu, qun l d liu v lp trnh (dng macro)

C kh nng c, ghi cc cu trc tp tin thngdng giao tip c vi cc CSDL v cng ckhc

C th xy dng m hnh tnh v ng Dng trn my tnh c nhn v my tnh ln C s xy dng cc bng tnh a chiu v cc

cng c x l phn tch trc tuyn (OLAP)

M HNH HA BNG


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M HNH HA BNGPHN TCH QUYT NH

L tip cn m hnh ha cc tnh hung

quyt nh c mt s hu hn/khng qunhiu cc phng n mi phng n ctrnh ra, di dng bng hay th- cc ktqu tng ng (d bo c km xc sut)

theo mc tiu bi ton t chn phngn tt nht

n mc tiu: bng quyt nh hay cyquyt nh

a mc tiu: AHP (analytic hierarchy

process), khc ..

M HNH HA BNG QUY HOCH TON


51/71

M HNH HA BNG QUY HOCH TON Quy hoch ton hc (MP) l h cc cng c gii quyt cc

bi ton qun l theo ngi ra quyt nh phi cp phtcc ti nguyn khan him cho cc hot ng cnh tranh

nhau (phng n) nhm ti u ha mc tiu kh o lng Cc m hnh quy hoch tuyn tnh (LP) thng dng nhttrong quy hoch ton; c nhiu ng dng trong thc t;c dng nhiu trong cc h h tr quyt nh

Bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh:

Cc bin quyt nh (cn tm gi tr) Hm mc tiu (hm ton hc dng tuyn tnh xc nh

quan h gia bin quyt nh v mc tiu; o lng mc t t mc tiu v cn c ti u ha)

Cc h s ca hm mc tiu (cho bit mc ng gp vomc tiu ca 1 n v bin quyt nh)

Rng buc (biu thc tuyn tnh cho bit gii hn tinguyn v/hay cc quan h gia cc bin s) Dung lng (m t cn trn v di ca cc bin v rng

buc) H s (cng ngh) vo-ra (cho bit mc s dng ti

nguyn ca bin quyt nh)

M HNH HA BNG QUY HOCH TON (tt)


52/71

M HNH HA BNG QUY HOCH TON (tt) c imca bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh: Ti nguyn kinh t ca bi ton l c hn v sn sng

C nhiu cch (>2) s dng ti nguyn c gi l gii phphay chng trnh Mi hot ng dng ti nguyn u sinh ra kt qu di

dng mc tiu pht biu trc Vic cp pht nm trong cc rng buc cho trc

Gi nhca bi ton quy hoch tuyn tnh Cc kt qu ca cc cp pht c th em so snh vi nhau,c th o lng bng mt n v chung

Cc cp pht c lp vi nhau v mt kt qu Kt qu cui cng l tng ca cc kt qu t cc hot ng

ring r khc nhau D liu c tnh chc chn Ti nguyn c dng mt cch kinh t nht Thng c mt s ln cc gii php vi kt qu khc nhau Trong s cc gii php c th, c 1 gii php tt nht mc

t c mc tiu cao nht gi l gii php ti u ctm ra bng mt gii thut c bit

M HNH HA BNG HEURISTIC


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M HNH HA BNG HEURISTIC Vic tm gii php ti uca mt s bi ton phc

tp c th tn nhiu thi gian, chi ph hay khngth. Cn nu dng m phngcng c th ko di,

phc tp, khng thch hp/thm ch khng chnh xc L mt tip cn gip tm ra cc gii php kh

thi/tha mn cho cc bi ton phc tp. C th cgii php tt (90-99.9% gi tr ca li gii ti u)nhanh chng v tn km hn bng heuristics

Qu trnh heuristic l dy cc bc xy dng ccquy lut gii quyt vn thng qua vic tm kimcc con ng ha hn nht dn n li gii; tmkim cch thc thu thp v phn gii thng tin theoqu trnh gii v pht trin cc phng php dn

n mt gii thut tnh ton hay mt li gii tngqut c p dng ch yu cho bi ton cu trc yu; cng

dng tm ra gii php chp nhn c cho biton cu trc cht

Khng tng qut nh cc gii thut; thng chdn cho tnh hun c th an xt

M HNH HA BNG HEURISTIC (tt)


54/71

M HNH HA BNG HEURISTIC (tt) C th dn n mt gii php d - cc th tc tng

bc gii quyt vn khng m bo tm ra giiphp ti u

Heuristic c th l nh lng -> ng vai tr quantrng trong c s m hnh ca h h tr quyt nh Heuristic c th l nh tnh -> ng vai tr quan

trng trong cung ng kin thc cho h chuyn gia Qu trnh heuristic lin quan n tm kim, hc tp,

c lng, phn x v lp li cc hot ng ny dctheo tin trnh Kin thc thu c d thnh cng hay tht bi trong

qu trnh c phn hi v sa i chnh qu trnh -> c th nh ngha li mc tiu hay bi ton

Tm kim Tabu (Glover & Laguna, 1997, Sun et al.,1998) da trn cc chin lc tm kim thng minhnhm rt ngn vic d tm: ghi nh cc gii phptt/xu tm c v hng dn n gii php tt

Gii thut di truyn: bt u bng tp cc gii php

c sinh ngu nhin, ti kt hp cc cp gii phpm t cch n u nhin



55/71

M HNH HA BNG HEURISTIC (tt) Tnh hung nn dng heuristicsD liu u vo khng chnh xc hay c gii hn

Thc t qu phc tp n ni khng dng ccc m hnh ti u Cha c c gii thut chnh xc v tin cy Bi ton phc tp nn khng kinh t nu dng ti

u hay m phng hoc tn qu nhiu thi giantnh ton

C th ci thin tnh hiu qu ca qu trnh ti u(tc c th sinh ra cc gii php ban u tngi tt)

Lin quan n x l k hiu ch khng phi x lk s (nh h chuyn gia)

Cn c quyt nh nhanh v cc x l da vomy tnh khng kh thi (mt s heuristic khngcn n my tnh)



56/71


Thun li:D hiu, d gii thch v d ci t Nng cao tnh sng to v nng lc heuristic cho

v/ khc Tit kim thi gian xc lp vn Tit kim yu cu v b cha v x l my tnh Tit kim thi gian tnh ton v do vy thi gian

thc trong ra quyt nh. Mt s vn phc tpn ni ch c th gii c bng heuristics

Thng sinh ra nhiu gii php chp nhn c

Thng c th pht biu l thuyt hay o lngthc nghim v cht lng ca gii php (tc gitr mc tiu ca gii php gn vi gi tr ti un mc no, d gi tr ti u cha bit c)



57/71

M HNH HA BNG HEURISTIC (tt) Thun li (tt) C th kt hp tnh thng minh vo hng dn php

tm kim (tm kim tabu). Nng lc thng minh c

th l c th theo bi ton hoc da trn kinchuyn gia cy trong h chuyn gia hoc c ch tmkim

C th dng heuristic hiu qu vo cc m hnh c thgii bng quy hoch ton hc. i khi heuristic l

phng php c a thch hn, khi khc gii phpheuristics c dng nh gii php ban u cho ccphng php quy hoch ton hc

Hn ch

Khng m bo c c gii php ti u Cc quy lut c rt nhiu ngoi l Cc la chn quyt nh tun t c th khng tin on

c cc kt cc tng lai ca mi chn la S lin thuc gia cc phn trong h thng i khi c

th gy ra cc nh hng ln lao ln ton h thng



58/71

M HNH HA BNG HEURISTIC (tt) Phn loicc gii thut heuristic

Heuristic xy dng:xy dng gii php kh thi bng cch cng

thm tng thnh phn mt.TD: bi ton ngi bn hng lun gh thnh ph cha vingthm k tip gn nht

Heuristic ci tin:bt u bng mt gii php kh thi v cgng ci tin lin tc trn .TD trn, th hon i 2 thnh ph

Quy hoch ton:p dng vo cc m hnh cha t rng bucnhm c c thng tin v tha hip tt nht vi m hnh gc.Thng c dng trong ti u ha nguyn (integeroptimization)

Chia giai on:gii quyt mt vn theo tng giai on.TD P&G trn y, bi ton phn phi gii quyt trc, sau dng gii quyt bi ton chin lc sn phm

Phn r:chia bi ton thnh cc phn nh hn, c th giiquyt c sau kt hp cc gii php li.TD: chia lnh th bn hng thnh 4 vng khc nhau, gii quytcho tng vng sau kt ni cc gii php

M PHNG


59/71

Gi nh/c gng a ra cc c im ca thc ti

L k thut trin khai cc thc nghim (nh phntch what-if) - bng my tnh - trn mt m hnhca h thng tin qun l

Khng thc s l mt m hnh v khng biu dinthc ti m l c gng bt chc thc ti

HHTQ lm vic vi cc bi ton phi cu trc v cutrc yu, tnh hung thc t phc tp khng d

biu din bng m hnh ti u hay cc dng m hnhkhc nhng li thng c th x l c bng mphng

Mt trong nhng phng php thng dng nht

trong HHTQ

M PHNG (tt)


60/71

M PHNG (tt) c im: Cha t n gin ha v thc ti hn cc m hnh khc

Do dn dt cc thc nghim nn n kim th cc gi trc th ca cc bin quyt nh/bin khng kim sotc ca m hnh v xem xt nh hng ln cc bin ktqu

Phng php c tnh m t (khc vi danh nh)

Khng t ng tm kim gii php ti u n m t/tinon cc c tnh ca h thng cho di cc iu kinkhc nhau t c th chn ra phng n tt nht

Qu trnh m phng thng lp li mt thc nghimnhiu ln c c c lng v hiu ng tng qutca mt s hnh ng nht nh

M phng my tnh thch hp cho hu ht cc tnh hungmc d cng c mt s m phng th cng thnh cng Thng ch c dng khi bi ton qu phc tp khng

th xem xt bng cc k thut ti u dng s. Tnh phctp theo ngha bi ton khng th cng thc ha cho tiu (do khng tha cc gi nh), hoc cng thc qu ln,qu nhiu tng tc gia cc bin hoc v bn cht bi

M PHNG (tt)


61/71

( ) Phng php m phng: thit lp m hnh ca h thng

thc v tin hnh cc thc nghim lp li trn m hnh

nh nghavn

nh gi

k t q u

Bi ton

thc

Xy dngm hnh

Kim th vhp thc m hnh

Thit kthc nghim

Tin hnhthc nghim

Ci t

kt qu

M PH NG (tt)


62/71

( ) Thun li: L thuyt tng i trc tip Hnh dung c hiu ng di hn ca chnh sch -> nn

thi gian ln Do tnh cht m t ( danh nh) C th thy c nhanh chng), c th t ra cc cu hi

what-if, c th dng tip cn th-v-sai vo gii quytvn nhanh, r, chnh xc, t ri ro hn

Th nghim c bin quyt nh, phn no ca mitrng thc s quan trng vi cc phng n khc nhau Yu cu kin thc ring bit v bi ton -> buc ngi

xy dng m hnh phi lm vic thng xuyn vi nhqun l i tng mong mun ca HHTQ -> bi tonv cc quyt nh c hiu tt hn

M hnh c xy dng t vin cnh/cch nhn ca nhqun l M hnh ch cho mt bi ton ring bit, thng khng

th dng gii cc bi ton khc -> mi thnh phn cam hnh ng vi mt phn ca h thng thc -> khngyu cu nh qun l phi tng qut ha hiu bit camnh

M PHNG (tt)


63/71

( ) Thun li (tt) Ph bi ton gii c rt rng: tn kho, nhn s, hoch nh

chin lc .. C th cha cc phc tp thc s ca bi ton, khng cn cc n

gin ha (TD: dng cc phn phi xc sut thc thay v phn phil thuyt xp x) C th t ng sinh ra nhiu o lng hiu nng quan trng Thng l phng php duy nht ca HHTQ c th x l cc bi

ton tng i phi cu trc C mt s cc gi phn mm m phng (Monte Carlo) d dng

im yu: Tuy thng tm c cc phng n tt nhng khng m bo

li gii ti u Qu trnh xy dng m hnh thng di v tn km

Gii php v suy din t nghin cu m phng thng khng thchuyn sang bi ton khv v m hnh kt hp cc yu t c th i khi do m hnh qu d gii thch cho nh qun l nn cc

phng php phn tch thng xem nh Phn mm m phng i khi yu cu cc k nng c bit do

phc tp ca phng php gii hnh thc

M PHNG (tt)


64/71

( ) Cc loi m phng M phng xc sut:mt hay nhiu bin c lp mang

tnh xc sut vi 2 loi phn phi thng dng k thut

Monte Carlo Phn phi ri rc:tnh hung c mt s gii hn cc binc (bin) vi hu hn cc gi tr cho mi bin c (bin)

Phn phi lin tc:tnh hung c s lng khng gii hncc bin c tun theo cc hm mt xc sut nh phnphi chun

M phng c lp/ph thuc theo thi gian: c lp:khng cn thit phi bit chnh xc thi im

xy ra bin c (nhu cu tiu th lng sn phm trongngy, khng bit chnh xc thi im tiu th)

Ph thuc:cn bit chnh xc thi im xy ra s kin

(bi ton hng i) M phng tng tc trc quan: M phng hng i tng: dng tip cn hng i

tng xy dng m hnh m phng. Ch ngn ngUML (unified modeling language) k c khi m phng cc

h thi gian thc

M HNH HA A CHIU X L PHN TCH TRC TUYN


65/71

X L PHN TCH TRC TUYN

Ngi ra quyt nh thng phi xem xt nhiu chiu ca d liu (td:cc chiu ca d liu bn hng l sn phm, vng, thi gian, ngibn ..); d liu cn c phn tch trc tip bng cc cng c chunhay t ng bng cc phng php khai m d liu (data mining)

Hu ht cc h thng phn tch a chiu c nhng trong cc h xl phn tch trc tuyn (HXLPTTT - OLTP)

Mc tiu ca HXLPTTT l nm bt cu trc ca d liu thc h trcho ngi ra quyt nh

Trong HHTQ c s gn ni t nhin gia m hnh ha d liu, mhnh ha k hiu v cc kha cnh ca phn tch what-if

Cc bo co ca HXLPTTT u c tnh tng tc, d khai thc s dng,c bit ph hp cho cc bo co v ch s hiu nng ch yu (KPI),bo co v o lng hiu nng kinh doanh ..

Th h hin ti ca HXLPTTT v h khai m d liu tch hp cc ctnh ca h thng tin lnh o (EIS nhiu cch nhn d liu, chi tit

ha ..) v cc h ha khc thng c giao din ngi dng kiuWEB Cc h thng nh trn cn c gi l cc cng c tr tu kinh doanh

(BI) v c cc c trng v m hnh ha v ti u ha nhng li trongsut i vi ng dng

Hin cc cng c c a ra bi cc nh cung cp v CSDL, v hochnh ti nguyn t chc (HTNTC-ERP), nh kho d liu, HXLPTTT

M HNH HA TNG TC TRC QUAN V


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QM PHNG TNG TC TRC QUAN

ch li:Ngi ra quyt nh tham gia vo qu trnh pht

trin m hnh v thc nghim m phng -> tin tng khi sdng m hnh

M hnh ha tng tc trc quan (VIM) dng cc biu din ha my tnh trnh by cc nh hng ca cc quytnh qun l khc nhau, mt thi im (tnh) hay tin

trin theo thi gian (ng vi k thut hot hnh) M phng tng tc trc quan (VIS) cho php ngi dngtheo di tin trnh xy dng v s dng khai thc m hnhm phng di dng hot hnh

M hnh ha tng tc trc quan c th kt hp vi tip cntr tu nhn to a ra cc kh nng mi thay i t xy

dng h thng dng ha n tm hiu v ng hc cah thng

Cn n cc h thng my tnh x l song song tc cao xy dng cc m phng - phc tp, quy m ln, dnghot hnh mang tnh kh thi thi gian thc

CC B PHN MM NH LNG V


67/71

X L PHN TCH TRC TUYN Mt s cng c HHTQ c cha sn cc trnh con xy dng

cc m hnh nh lng v thng k, phn tch ti chnh, kton ..

Nhiu cng c HHTQ c th tng tc vi cc b phn mmnh lng tiu chun (cc m hnh lp sn) -> tng nng sutnh vo cc m hnh c sn

Phn mm thng k: c coi nh mt cng c ra quyt nh hn l mt cng c

phn tch trong qu trnh ra quyt nh C th c nhng trong cc cng c khai m d liu v cng

c x l phn tch trc tuyn -> ngi dng kh nhn bitc cc phng php thng k phc tp c dng

Cc bng tnh cng cha nhiu hm thng k phc tp v ccc giao tip ngoi kh lp trnh Mt s hm thng k c xy dng sn trong cc cng c

HHTQ (trung bnh, trung v, phng sai, lch chun, tngquan hi quy (tuyn tnh, a thc, tng bc), chi-square, t-test, phn tch lch ..)

CC B PHN MM NH LNG V


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X L PHN TCH TRC TUYN (tt)

Phn mm m hnh ha phn tch/m hnh khoa

hc qun l(MS/OR) C rt nhiu trn th trng v phn tch thng

k, quy hoch tuyn tnh, m phng, phn tchquyt nh, quy hoch phi tuyn, d bo ..

Mt vi b to sinh HHTQ c cc nng lc ti uv m phng

Phn mm qun l li nhun (revenue/yieldmanagement):

Ph bin trong lnh vc dch vM hnh ng v phn loi khch hng, c lng

nhu cu, nh gi c cho tng loi khch hng

H QUN TR C S M HNH (MBMS)


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Q ( ) C nng lcnh h qun tr CSDL (DBMS). Tuy nhin

th trng c th c nhiu h qun tr CSDL nhngcha c cc sn phm v h qun tr CSMH

Cc kha cnh cu trcv gii thutca m hnhcng nh x l d liu lin quan cn trong sut i vingi dng

Kh nng tch hpm hnh (m hnh vi m hnh, dliu vi m hnh v ngc li)

Cha c cc HQTCSMH chun ha v: C nhiu lp m hnh nhng u khc cu trc (quy

hoch tuyn tnh phn tch hi quy)Mi lp m hnh c vi tip cn gii quyt vn khc

nhau; tip cn coi l chun c th c hiu qu thp hntip cn c th (Mt s nng lc ca HQTCSMH lin quan n kh nng

suy l v kin thc chuyn gia c th to sinh cc hthng khc h chuyn gia, cc h tr tu nhn to ..

H QUN TR C S M HNH (tt)


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Q ( ) Cha c cc HQTCSMH chun ha v (tt): Hin ti bng tnh v vi cng c & ngn ng

HHTQ c a ra mt s nng lc ca HQCSMHMt s ngn ng m hnh ha c bit c dng

nh cng c truy xut n cc phn mm thc hintc v ti u ha hay m phng. Chng h tr chovic pht trin v qun l cc m hnh. (Vi ngnng m hnh ha dng quy hoch ton hc thngdng: Lingo, AMPL, GAMS ..)

Ngi dng phi c c kh nng sau:

Truy t, thao tc, lu cha v hiu chnh m hnhhin c Xy dng m hnh mi t cc m hnh hin c vi

n lc chi ph ph hp

H QUN TR C S M HNH (tt)


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H QUN TR C S M HNH (tt) HQTCSMH quan h: tng t nh CSDL quan h, m hnh c xem nh

mt quan h o c 3 hot ng cn thit c tnh y quan h

trong qun l m hnh: thc thi (execution), ti u(optimization) v phn tch nhy (sensitivity

analysis)

HQTCSMH hng i tng: duy tr s c lp logic gia c s m hnh v cc

thnh phn khc ca HHTQ, h tr s tch hpthng minh v n nh gia cc thnh phn

cc khi nim hng i tng quen thuc trong ccgiao din ngi dng ha (GUI) u c th pdng vo vic qun l m hnh

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