Upload
seanna
View
33
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Housing Futures Housing Supply. John Stewart HBF Director of Economic Affairs 17 July 2007. Housing Futures Housing Supply. 1. Plan-led System 2. Housing Land Supply 3. Housing Target 4. What is to be done?. 1. Plan-led System. 1. Plan-led System. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Housing FuturesHousing Supply
John Stewart
HBF Director of Economic Affairs
17 July 2007
Housing FuturesHousing Supply
1. Plan-led System
2. Housing Land Supply
3. Housing Target
4. What is to be done?
1. Plan-led System
1. Plan-led System
Housing under-supply inevitable in plan-led system in market economy
• Politics
• Site drop outs
• Windfalls/brownfield
2. Housing Land Supply
‘Delivery’ Market Based
Housing ‘delivery’ depends on:
• Land market – competitive price setting
• Developer profitability (margin, ROCE)
• Housing market – developers price takers
• Supplemented by social house building (but >50% ‘Affordable Housing’ via S106)
Sources of Increased ‘Delivery’
Three components of ‘net additions’:
• New homes (~90%)
More land with planning permission
and/or Higher densities
• More conversions
• Net of demolitions
Housing Completions and Land Use, England
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
19019
89
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
p
2005
p
2006
Com
plet
ions
(000
)
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
Hec
tare
s
Completions Land area
Housing Completions and Density, England
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
19019
89
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
p
2005
p
2006
Com
plet
ions
(000
)
20
25
30
35
40
45
Dw
ellin
gs p
er h
ecta
re
Completions Average density
Housing Comple tions, by Land Type , England
35455565758595
105115125135
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
p
2005
p
2006
Com
plet
ions
(000
)
Brow nf ield Greenf ield
Resdiential Land, by Land Type, England
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.519
89
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
p
Hec
tare
s (0
00)
Brow nf ield Greenf ield
Land Banking
• House builder land banking – a myth, beyond operational requirements (Barker’s conclusion)
• Large stock of outstanding permissions?
Land Banking
HBF survey of 21 large house builders
5.1 years land in pipeline, of which:• 47% (2.4 years) implementable permission
(of which 97% started within 3 months)• 36% allocated or outline consent• 17% not allocated & no consent
3. Housing Target
Housing Target: England
• 240,000 net additions per year by 2016
• 3 million additional homes by 2020
• New homes: quality, zero-carbon by 2016
Household growth: 223,000 pa 2004-26
Total Housing Completions (GB)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
45019
20
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Com
plet
ions
(000
)
HOUSING COMPLETIONS (ENGLAND)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Com
plet
ions
Private RSL Public
Net Additions to Housing Stock, England
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
170.0
180.0
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05P
(000
)
Net additions New completions
Household Growth (England)Average annual increase (000)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1951-61 1961-71 1971-81 1981-91 1991-01 2001-11 2011-21
(000
)
Household Growth (England)Average annual increase (000)
170180190
200210220230
240250
2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26
(000
)
2004-based Household ProjectionsAverage annual growth, 2004-2026 (000)
Household growth
Completions 2006
North East 7.5 7.7North West 25.4 18.4Yorks & Humber 23.9 15.2East Midlands 20.5 16.9West Midlands 18.6 14.8East 26.6 21.6London 39.4 20.3South East 34.4 27.0South West 26.9 18.2
England 223.3 160.0Source: CLG
Net Additions to Housing Stock, EnglandIndicative Trajectory
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(000
)
Net additions Housing completions
Assumes: 185,000 net additions in 2007, 240,000 in 2016, 3 million by 2020, 25,000 pa conversions-demolitions
4. What is to be done?
What is to be done?
Step-change in implementable residential planning permissions
• 160,000 @ 40 per ha => 4000 ha • 215,000 @ 40 per ha => 5375 ha (+34%)• 215,000 @ 35 per ha => 6143 ha (+54%)• 215,000 @ 30 per ha => 7167 ha (+79%)
Assumes: constant average site size; 25,000 pa conversions less demolitions
Central Government
• Policy, guidance, systems adequate• Monitor system and outcomes• Enforce/intervene – e.g. curb LA “interpretation”&
avoidance of proper process• Adequate infrastructure funding & delivery• Communities England role?• Let markets work!
Regional Government
• Set adequate RSS housing targets• Increase targets to hit 240,000 pa – early priority• Cascade adequate targets down to LAs
Regional Assembly role to be curbed?
RDA role to be increased, RES driving?
RPG and RSS Housing TotalsAnnual average net additions to the dwelling stock for plan period
Adopted RPG/RSS Proposed in Draft RSSNorth East 6,000 6,580 North West 12,790 23,111 Yorkshire & the Humber 13,654 19,813 West Midlands 16,000 23,000 East Midlands 15,925 20,418 Eastern 20,850 26,830 South East 28,050 28,900 London 23,000 30,650 South West 20,200 23,060 England 156,469 202,362 Souces: Regional Assemblies, Panel Reports, Government Offices
Local Authorities
• Accelerate LDD preparation• Set key policies in LDDs, not SPDs• SHLAAs* critical to delivery• Realistic brownfield and greenfield assumptions• Curb excessive cost demands on land values• Want to make it happen!
*Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments
IndustryHouse building, supply, energy, finance industries: • Skills and training• Construction methods, innovation, delivery chain• Materials and products (incl. Zero Carbon)• Local renewable energy provision• Finance• House building industry capacity expand• New home quality (design, product, satisfaction)
Housing FuturesHousing Supply
John Stewart
HBF Director of Economic Affairs
17 July 2007