30
Housing Futures Housing Supply John Stewart HBF Director of Economic Affairs 17 July 2007

Housing Futures Housing Supply

  • Upload
    seanna

  • View
    33

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Housing Futures Housing Supply. John Stewart HBF Director of Economic Affairs 17 July 2007. Housing Futures Housing Supply. 1. Plan-led System 2. Housing Land Supply 3. Housing Target 4. What is to be done?. 1. Plan-led System. 1. Plan-led System. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Citation preview

Page 1: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Housing FuturesHousing Supply

John Stewart

HBF Director of Economic Affairs

17 July 2007

Page 2: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Housing FuturesHousing Supply

1. Plan-led System

2. Housing Land Supply

3. Housing Target

4. What is to be done?

Page 3: Housing Futures Housing Supply

1. Plan-led System

Page 4: Housing Futures Housing Supply

1. Plan-led System

Housing under-supply inevitable in plan-led system in market economy

• Politics

• Site drop outs

• Windfalls/brownfield

Page 5: Housing Futures Housing Supply

2. Housing Land Supply

Page 6: Housing Futures Housing Supply

‘Delivery’ Market Based

Housing ‘delivery’ depends on:

• Land market – competitive price setting

• Developer profitability (margin, ROCE)

• Housing market – developers price takers

• Supplemented by social house building (but >50% ‘Affordable Housing’ via S106)

Page 7: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Sources of Increased ‘Delivery’

Three components of ‘net additions’:

• New homes (~90%)

More land with planning permission

and/or Higher densities

• More conversions

• Net of demolitions

Page 8: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Housing Completions and Land Use, England

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

19019

89

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

p

2005

p

2006

Com

plet

ions

(000

)

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

Hec

tare

s

Completions Land area

Page 9: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Housing Completions and Density, England

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

19019

89

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

p

2005

p

2006

Com

plet

ions

(000

)

20

25

30

35

40

45

Dw

ellin

gs p

er h

ecta

re

Completions Average density

Page 10: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Housing Comple tions, by Land Type , England

35455565758595

105115125135

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

p

2005

p

2006

Com

plet

ions

(000

)

Brow nf ield Greenf ield

Page 11: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Resdiential Land, by Land Type, England

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.519

89

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

p

Hec

tare

s (0

00)

Brow nf ield Greenf ield

Page 12: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Land Banking

• House builder land banking – a myth, beyond operational requirements (Barker’s conclusion)

• Large stock of outstanding permissions?

Page 13: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Land Banking

HBF survey of 21 large house builders

5.1 years land in pipeline, of which:• 47% (2.4 years) implementable permission

(of which 97% started within 3 months)• 36% allocated or outline consent• 17% not allocated & no consent

Page 14: Housing Futures Housing Supply

3. Housing Target

Page 15: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Housing Target: England

• 240,000 net additions per year by 2016

• 3 million additional homes by 2020

• New homes: quality, zero-carbon by 2016

Household growth: 223,000 pa 2004-26

Page 16: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Total Housing Completions (GB)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

45019

20

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Com

plet

ions

(000

)

Page 17: Housing Futures Housing Supply

HOUSING COMPLETIONS (ENGLAND)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Com

plet

ions

Private RSL Public

Page 18: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Net Additions to Housing Stock, England

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

1991

/92

1992

/93

1993

/94

1994

/95

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05P

(000

)

Net additions New completions

Page 19: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Household Growth (England)Average annual increase (000)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1951-61 1961-71 1971-81 1981-91 1991-01 2001-11 2011-21

(000

)

Page 20: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Household Growth (England)Average annual increase (000)

170180190

200210220230

240250

2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26

(000

)

Page 21: Housing Futures Housing Supply

2004-based Household ProjectionsAverage annual growth, 2004-2026 (000)

Household growth

Completions 2006

North East 7.5 7.7North West 25.4 18.4Yorks & Humber 23.9 15.2East Midlands 20.5 16.9West Midlands 18.6 14.8East 26.6 21.6London 39.4 20.3South East 34.4 27.0South West 26.9 18.2

England 223.3 160.0Source: CLG

Page 22: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Net Additions to Housing Stock, EnglandIndicative Trajectory

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(000

)

Net additions Housing completions

Assumes: 185,000 net additions in 2007, 240,000 in 2016, 3 million by 2020, 25,000 pa conversions-demolitions

Page 23: Housing Futures Housing Supply

4. What is to be done?

Page 24: Housing Futures Housing Supply

What is to be done?

Step-change in implementable residential planning permissions

• 160,000 @ 40 per ha => 4000 ha • 215,000 @ 40 per ha => 5375 ha (+34%)• 215,000 @ 35 per ha => 6143 ha (+54%)• 215,000 @ 30 per ha => 7167 ha (+79%)

Assumes: constant average site size; 25,000 pa conversions less demolitions

Page 25: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Central Government

• Policy, guidance, systems adequate• Monitor system and outcomes• Enforce/intervene – e.g. curb LA “interpretation”&

avoidance of proper process• Adequate infrastructure funding & delivery• Communities England role?• Let markets work!

Page 26: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Regional Government

• Set adequate RSS housing targets• Increase targets to hit 240,000 pa – early priority• Cascade adequate targets down to LAs

Regional Assembly role to be curbed?

RDA role to be increased, RES driving?

Page 27: Housing Futures Housing Supply

RPG and RSS Housing TotalsAnnual average net additions to the dwelling stock for plan period

Adopted RPG/RSS Proposed in Draft RSSNorth East 6,000 6,580 North West 12,790 23,111 Yorkshire & the Humber 13,654 19,813 West Midlands 16,000 23,000 East Midlands 15,925 20,418 Eastern 20,850 26,830 South East 28,050 28,900 London 23,000 30,650 South West 20,200 23,060 England 156,469 202,362 Souces: Regional Assemblies, Panel Reports, Government Offices

Page 28: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Local Authorities

• Accelerate LDD preparation• Set key policies in LDDs, not SPDs• SHLAAs* critical to delivery• Realistic brownfield and greenfield assumptions• Curb excessive cost demands on land values• Want to make it happen!

*Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments

Page 29: Housing Futures Housing Supply

IndustryHouse building, supply, energy, finance industries: • Skills and training• Construction methods, innovation, delivery chain• Materials and products (incl. Zero Carbon)• Local renewable energy provision• Finance• House building industry capacity expand• New home quality (design, product, satisfaction)

Page 30: Housing Futures Housing Supply

Housing FuturesHousing Supply

John Stewart

HBF Director of Economic Affairs

17 July 2007