Indo-Pak Class PPT

8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT

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BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Indo-Pakistan

Relations:Political Realism

ParadigmPentagon’s ‘Asia 2025 Report’


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Focus Area :

Foundations of Indo-Pak

Relation Two Nation Theory

Origin of Indo-Pak Conflict

Foreign Policy Framework of

India & Pakistan Bilateral Political Engagement

Role of Extra Regional Powers

Future of Indo-Pak Relations

Additional Complexity

Future of Pakistan

AfPak Policy

Nuclearization of South Asia

China Factor


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1947- Indo-Pak Division /

British Plan & Two Nation

Theory

PAKISTAN – In addition to

the existing political map

of Pakistan lands to be

added were- Punjab /Assam / Kashmir /

Baluchistan

Chronology of Events


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British India Map before Partition


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Map After Division


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7/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Sr. Indo-Pak Time line of

Conflict (PAK Version)

Sr. Indo-Pak Time line of Conflict (Indian Version)

1. 1947: Partition 1. 1947 Partition

2. 1947: First Kashmir War 2. 1947/48 - The first Indo-Pak war over Kashmir

3. 1960: Indus Water Treaty 3. January 1, 1949- War ends on with UN ceasefire

4. 1965: The Rann of Kutch 4. 1954 - The accession of J & K to India is ratified by

the state's constituent assembly

5. 1965: Second Kashmir War 5. 1963 –Indo-Pak Talk under the auspices of British &

Americans on Kashmir dispute. Talk Fails

6. 1971: Another War 6. 1964 - Pakistan refers the Kashmir case to the UN

Security Council

7. 1979: War in Afghanistan 7. 1965 - India and Pakistan fight their second war.

8. 1984: Kashmir Again 8. 1966 – Tashkent Agreement /Agreement to troopwithdrawal; diplomatic relations restoration.

9 1989: Campaign in Kashmir 9 1971 - India and Pakistan third time war. Bangladesh

carved out of East Pakistan

10 1992: The Ayodhia Mosque 10 1972- Simla Agreement & designation of "Line-of-

Control (LoC)"



11 1998: Nuclear Tests 11 1974 - The Kashmiri State Govt. affirms that the state "is a constituent unit of

the Union of India". Pakistan rejects the accord with the Indian government.

12 1999: Battle in Kashmir 12 1974- May- India detonates a nuclear device at Pokhran, in an operation

codenamed "Smiling Buddha"

13 2001: Terrorist Attacks 13 1988 - The two countries sign an agreement that neither side will attack the

other's nuclear installations or facilities

14. 2002: Ayodhia Struggle 14. 1989 – Pak proxy armed resistance to Indian rule in the Kashmir valley begins

1998 - India detonates five nuclear devices at Pokhran. Pakistan responds by

detonating six nuclear devices of its own in the Chaghai Hills.

1999 - Lahore Declaration of 'Confidence Building Measures' (CBMs).

1999 May- Kargil War

2001 December 13- Indian parliament attack by Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-

Muhammad. 14 people dead.

2002 - President Musharraf pledges that Pakistan will combat extremism on its

own soil, but affirms that the country has a right to Kashmir.

2004 January- Vajpayee and Musharraf hold direct talks at the 12th SAARC

summit in Islamabad

2007 February 18- Samjhauta Express train between India and Pakistan bombed

near Panipat, 68 people killed.

2008 - India joins a framework agreement between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan

and Pakistan on a $7.6bn gas pipeline project. A series of Kashmir-specific CBMs

are also agreed to (including the approval of a triple-entry permit facility).



Economic Marginalization of East

PakistanYear Spending onWest

Pakistan(Cr.Rs)

Spending on

East Pakistan

(Cr.Rs)

Net Spending %

of total

expenditure

1950/51-

54/55

1,129 524 31.7

1955/56-

59/60

1,655 524 24.0

1960/61-

64/65

3,355 1,404 29.5

1965/66-

69/70

5,195 2,141 29.2

Total 11,334 4,593 28.8

Source: Reports of the Advisory Panels for the 4th Five

Year Plan 1970-75, Vol. I, published by the Planning

Commission of Pakistan

Why Did East

Pakistan secede?

1. Politically Marginalized

2. Far Away to Administer

3. Economic Marginalization

4. Different Language5. Considered as a Colony of

West Pakistan

6. Political implications of mal

governance had direct

refugee implication to India



What's Wrong

with Pakistan?

Taliban Region or

Pashtun FATA- 40

Million People

Arab Identity

Muhajirs

Punjabis



Foreign PolicyWhat’s Wrong with Pakistan?

Why geography -- unfortunately --

is destiny for South Asia's

troubled heartland.

By Robert D. Kaplan

June 18, 2012

“ A place where tribes are strong and

the central government is

comparatively weak” (Kaplan, 2012).Anatol Lieven in his book “Pakistan: A

Hard Country”, 2012 notes the same

as “a weak state with strong

societies”

http://foreignpolicy.com/category/argument/http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/06/18/whats-wrong-with-pakistan/http://foreignpolicy.com/author/robert-d-kaplanhttp://foreignpolicy.com/author/robert-d-kaplanhttp://foreignpolicy.com/2012/06/18/whats-wrong-with-pakistan/http://foreignpolicy.com/category/argument/http://foreignpolicy.com/category/argument/



Indo-Pak Relations

Indo-Pak Conflict

Foreign Policy Directions

Role of International Actors

Future Directions



Close to 70 Years ofconfrontation

India & Pakistan have fought

four Wars

Over 25 Years of Proxy war

One million civilian deaths

Forced migration of over tenmillion people

India & Pakistan

are at war fromthe time of

Partition since

1947



Partition & Origin of Conflict



03 Princely States - Junagarh &Hyderabad (Muslim Ruler with Hindumajority population),

and J&K (Hindu Ruler and majority Muslimpopulation) had presented competingconfusion of accession

Maharaja Hari Singh, the then king of

J&K, faced with internal pro-PakistanMuslim revolt, signed the Instrumentof Accession of Jammu and KashmirState with Lord Mountbatten on 26th

October 1947 to join with Indian

Union.

At Partition- 565 ‘Princely States’ (nearly

99million people & 2/5th of India’s

land territory) were given the

option by the British imperial

authority to either join Indiaor Pakistan.



Operation Gulmarg- 22nd January 1947

Nearly 5,000 tribesmen led by Pakistani Armyregulars attacked the region and quickly

captured large parts of territory, looted, raped

women, killed the inhabitants, torched their

houses, and abducted young women to take

back to Pakistan.

Nearly about 11,000 residents of Baramullah

were killed and the Mohra power station that

supplied electricity to Srinagar was destroyed.

7 Months Prior to the

Treaty of Accession

While Pakistan sponsored aggression created what is known Azad

Kashmir - an independent government, this aggression seems to

have hastened Maharaja Hari Singh on October 26 to sign the

instrument of accession with India.



Operation Gulmarg

- 22nd January 1947



Following the signing ofthe instrument of

accession, Indian army

entered Kashmir Valley.

Fought a 14 month

campaign that ended with

a ceasefire negotiated by

the United Nations along

with a de facto partition of

the state that continues

even today.

UN & Land Division

The United Nations brokered a peaceprocess & divided J&K.

India got possession of nearly 60% of

the land consisting of Kashmir Valley,

the low lying Jammu which isprimarily Hindu dominated area & the

high plateau of Ladhak- a mostly

Buddhist region.

Pakistan on the other hand gotpossession of now called ‘Azad

Kashmir’ or Pakistan Occupied

Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan.



Currently, India, Pakistan,

and China control 45%, 35%

and 20% of land

respectively, of the original

J&K State.

China received about

35,000 square kilometers in

Aksai Chin in the 1962 war

with India.

And another 5,000 square

kilometers in Balistan ceded

by Pakistan under a bilateral

treaty signed in March 1963



1. First, as per Pakistan’s calculation,

having lost to China, Indian

defense establishment may not be

willing for another armed conflict.

2. Second, Pakistani initiative might

receive popular Kashmiri support

3. Finally, as per Pakistan

intelligence, a quick military

campaign could take India by

surprise

1965 WarBegan in August 5, 1965

& ended on Sept 22,

1965.

3 prominent factors

seem to have

accentuated Pakistaniarmy adventure to

occupy Kashmir by

force.



Pakistani attempt to seize Kashmirwas unsuccessful.

The second India-Pakistan Warreached a stalemate.

& finally under the supervision &coordination of Soviet Union, theTashkent (Uzbekistan Capital)

Agreement of January 10, 1966concluded the war.

Without any land or prisoner ofwar being exchanged in either side.

1965 War:

Bilateral War &Multilateral Power

Balance


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It is Prime Minister

Nehru, a Kashmiri

himself took the

issue to UNO.

Apparently with

the advice of Lord

Mountbatten,

Nehru referred J&K

issue to the U.N.

Security Council on

1 January, 1948.

Kashmir Issue @ UNO

India accusedPakistan of sending

troops into Jammu

and Kashmir besides

arming the Afridi

tribesmen to foment

law and order

situation .

Pandit Nehru is very

often blamed for

internationalizing J&Kissue which

essentially was a

domestic or bilateral

issue between India

and Pakistan.

Along with Israeli-Palestine conflict &

Korean Peninsula crisis

dividing North- South

Korea, Kashmir issue

became the first sort of

crisis the United Nations

confronted soon after

the Second World War.

68 years have passed

since the J&K issue wasdebated in the UNO &

yet the conflict

continues to elude any

solution.


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The U.N involvement in the

Kashmir Conflict internationalized

the issue and lasted for around 23

years (1948-72)

Led to Indo-Pak Simla Agreement

which India chooses to be the

point for future negotiation and

Pakistan chooses to ignore.

The United Nations passed a

series of resolutions on Kashmir

which was advisory in nature.

After the Indo-Pak war of 1965, the

U.N engagement with Kashmir moved

at a slow pace till the 3rd Pakistan-

India war of 1971.

Followed by Pakistan’s defeat in the

1971 war, the UN involvement ended

with the signing of the Simla

Agreement in 1972.

1972 Agreement emphasized on an

Indo-Pak bilateral framework to solve

the Kashmir imbroglio and kept the

U.N out of the negotiation process.


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However, this time, the international politicalenvironment, Cold War and the ‘Political Realism’

orientation of the times not only affected but

seriously influenced the nature and context of

the conflict which is evident in Pakistan’s India

policy even today.

China Factor

1. Hoping to squeeze India with Chinese support,

Pakistan had ceded land in Pakistan Occupied

Kashmir to China.

2. Under the Pakistan-China boundary agreement

of March 3, 1963, Pakistan had ceded Trans

Karakoram Tract to China and had hoped that

Chinese support in their war with India shall

neutralize Indian ability.

Pakistan’s Strategic Miscalculation


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Also, by this time, Pakistan as

a member of various Western

military alliances had

benefited from American aid

and military equipment.

Pakistan’s strategic relevance

for Washington as a base

against Soviet Union had

clearly increased.

Pakistan was politically stable

and economically comparable

with India’s economic profile

Pakistan’s International Alliances Factor

1. Pakistan has remained a strategic

partner of the United States from the

beginning.

2. Pakistan is associated with the United

States through four mutual security

arrangements.

3. In May 1954, Pakistan signed the

Mutual Defense Assistance

Agreement with the United States.


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Same year it became a member of SEATOalong with the United States, Britain, France,

Thailand, the Philippines, Australia and New

Zealand.

In 1955, Pakistan joined the Baghdad Pact

(renamed as CENTO), another mutual

defense organization, with Britain, Turkey,

Iran and Iraq and in the process has been

sometimes termed as "America's mosttrusted ally in Asia."

It is the only Asian country which is a

member both of SEATO and CENTO

The Southeast Asia Treaty

Organization (SEATO) was

an international

organization for collective

defense in Southeast Asia.

Created by the Southeast

Asia Collective Defense

Treaty, or Manila Pact,

was signed in September

1954 in Manila,

Philippines.


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1. On the other hand, India’s Non Aligned policy andleadership in the 1950s and 1960s had set

Washington’s relation with India in ambivalence.

2. India’s apprehension and refusal to participate in the

international bipolarity, Pandit Nehru’s non-aligned

approach and India’s initiative in the Asian non-

aligned conference at Bandung 1955 had left

Washington reasonably suspicious of India’s foreign

policy directions and objective.

3. In the regional military balance of power equation

therefore, Washington certainly was not an ally and at

the same time, Soviet support for the same reason of

non-aligned character was also a matter of

speculation.

Indian Position

The Central Treaty

Organization

(CENTO), originally

known as the

Baghdad Pact or the

Middle East Treaty

Organization

(METO).

Was formed in 1955

by Iran, Iraq,Pakistan, Turkey, and

the United Kingdom.

It was dissolved in

1979.


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1. Washington however chose toremain neutral in the 1965 Indo-Pak

war was a rude shock to Pakistan and

was a turning point in the Pakistan’s

foreign policy directions.

2. The United States not only refused to

support Pakistan under the terms of

the 1954 Agreement of Cooperation,

but issued a statement of Washington’s neutrality and further,

cut off military supplies to Pakistan

which Pakistan called it as friend’s

betrayal.

AmericanNeutrality

&

Warning to China


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Additionally, Washingtonseems to have warned China

against a possible war front

with India.

Specter

of

Vietnam


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Instead of Washington’s support,Iran, Indonesia, and especially

China gave political support to

Pakistan during the war.

China during the course had also

cautioned India of violation of

Chinese territory by Indian troops

which alarmed India of Chinese

direct involvement in the war.

India-Indonesia had excellent pre

historic and post independence

relations.

Pakistan’s Triple Squeeze Approach

‘China – Pakistan

– Indonesia’

Referred as the

‘Triple Squeeze’ had

indeed createdIndian

apprehensions.


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However, Indonesia equally had good

relations with Islamic Pakistan and

apparently strategized during the course of

the war to open a naval attack on Andaman

Islands.

In the 1965 war, Indonesia offered Pakistan

to send their navy to attack the Andaman

and Nicobar islands to divert attention from

the West Pakistan war effort.

They did send boats with missiles, but these

could only get there after the war ended on

Sep. 22, 1965.


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On the other side, Iran as a member of CENTO alongwith Pakistan had also created similar ‘Pakistan –

China – Iran trio’ squeeze against non-aligned India.

Most striking was the attitude of the Soviet

Union.

Its post-Khrushchev leadership, rather than rallying

reflexively to India's side, adopted a neutral

position.

Ultimately USSR provided the good offices at

Tashkent, which led to the January 1966 Tashkent

Declaration that restored the status quo ante.

Role of Iran&

Soviet Union

Multilateral

Positioning &

De-positioning

&Washington’s

Neutrality

Helped India in the

1965 war


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First, the political viability of West

Pakistan ruling over Bengali speaking

and far away located East Pakistan was

incongruous.

East Pakistan joined Pakistan based on

two nation Indo-Pak religious divide.

As a result of this asymmetry, East

Pakistan’s political representation &

their rightful economic share were

appropriated by West Pakistan.

1971 War & Creation of Bangladesh


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Second, any development in

East Pakistan had direct bearing

on India including large number

of refugee inflow.

Third, close to three decades of

cold war unfolding, any

development and war buildupin the Indian subcontinent had

all possible international

ramifications.

1971 Indo-Pak

War: Cold war in

the Subcontinent

The indo-Pak war

of 1971 had three

prominentsegments.


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Year Spending on

West

Pakistan(Cr.Rs)

Spending on

East Pakistan

(Cr.Rs)

Net Spending %

of total

expenditure

1950/51-

54/55

1,129 524 31.7

1955/56-59/60

1,655 524 24.01960/61-

64/65

3,355 1,404 29.5

1965/66-

69/70

5,195 2,141 29.2

Total 11,334 4,593 28.8Source: Reports of the Advisory Panels for the 4th Five Year

Plan 1970-75, Vol. I, published by the Planning Commission of

Pakistan

Marginalization

of East Bengal


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West Pakistan viewed the Bengali Muslimresidents of East Pakistan as insufficiently

militaristic, insufficiently Muslim, and excessively

influenced by Hindu Indian culture.

And by the local Bengali Hindu population (whichcomprised 13% of the population of East

Pakistan and totaled about 10 million residents

by 1971.)

The Western Pakistani regime dissolved the

elected government in East Pakistan (Bengal) in1954 & prevented elections for the next four

years.

In 1971 the army prevented the convening of the

national Pakistani parliament.

Pak Marginalization

1. What followed this

crackdown was a series of

human misery.

2. Millions of Bangladeshi

refugees fleeing to Indianside leading to Pakistan’s

third and 13days war with

India that started on 3,

December 1971 and

culminated on the finally anddecisive surrender of Pakistan

on 16 December 1971


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In the 60's Pak regime imposed a ban and censorship of thetransmission and distribution of poems written by Rabindranath Tagore.

It is reported that on February 22nd 1971 Yahya Khan said the following

to a group of generals:

“We must kill three million of them, and the rest will eat out of the

palm of our hand”.

Yahya Khan appointed a new military governor for East Pakistan

(Bengal), General Tikka Khan, who declared immediately after taking

office that he would carry out a “final solution.” He even threatened to

kill four million people in 48 hours.


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The killings began on March 25th, 1971.

The West Pakistan army, along with

reinforcements, set out on a cleansing

campaign targeting East Pakistani

intellectuals and students, Bengals,Hindus, and urban workers.

The military campaign against cities and

towns not only led to large-scale civiliancasualties, but also displaced 30 million

people from cities into the countryside,

while another 10 million East Pakistanis

(Bengalis) fled to India.


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India actively participated tosupport Bangladesh through

Bangladesh Mukti Bahini.

However, in spite of sufficient

ground and provocation, Indiaresisted being the first aggressor.

Only when Pakistan opened a front

against India in the northern front

of Punjab and Kashmir andlaunched an air attack on a number

of Indian airfields, including

Ambala, Amritsar in Indian side of

Punjab and Udhampur in J&K;

Bilateral War & High Table Cold War Diplomacy

India responded with a

formidable three pronged

retaliation strategy which

involved air attack, naval

blockade and army assault.

Finally the war ended in

only thirteen days followed

by Pakistani surrender andSimla Accord.


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President Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger had from the

beginning sympathized with Pakistan and taken position to

restrain India to the tune of even joining the war if needed and

encouraging China to open aggression to neutralize India.

In July 1971 Henry Kissinger had a stopover at New Delhi on hissecret mission to China where he apparently encouraged China

to open aggression against India and promised Washington’s

support to such possible Chinese war adventure

Indian Prime Minister Mrs. Gandhi apparently invited India’sthe then Chief of Army General Sam Manekshaw to join her in

the breakfast in full military uniform and to the surprise of

Manekshaw, US Secretary of State Kissinger was also present in

the breakfast table.

War & International Diplomacy

American

Response

Kissinger-

Mrs. Gandhi

Breakfast


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Apparently, in spite of Kissinger’s adamant anti-Indian position, Mrs. Gandhi seemed to have

clarified that India has to take a decisive step if

the Pakistanis continue the genocide in East

Pakistan .

Pakistan’s genocide in East Pakistan had also

divided American administrations perception of

how Washington should respond to the crisis.

Nixon within his administration had faced a

virtual revolt from his diplomats with the entire

State Department team based in Dhaka writing

the so-called Blood Telegram

Divided Opinion

in USAdministration

Blood

Telegrams

from Dhaka


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During the course of war building, theAmerican strong anti-Indian position and

even use of abusive languages to Indian

leadership and country

Finally led to American and British direct

naval participation in the war to corner India.

Washington dispatched of the US aircraft

carrier USS Enterprise to the Bay of Bengal to

try to intimidate the Indian government are

adequately documented and chronicled by

many authors

US aircraft

carrier “USS

Enterprise” in

Bay of Bengal


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Meanwhile, Mrs. Gandhi in her diplomatic zeal and

stateswomen spirit and with absolute sensitivity to

international protocol and public opinion opened a diplomatic

mobilization in Europe.

Meanwhile, Anthony Mascarenhas - a Goa born Karachi based

journalist who was an eye witness to Pakistan’s genocide in theEast Bengal escaped to England and published in Sunday Times

the eye witness account of atrocities which virtually changed

the European and world opinion and exposed Pakistan’s

notoriety and crimes in Bengal

Indian Opinion Building

JP in

Europe


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While the international public opinion and India’s diplomatic

buildup helped India create a favorable climate for a possible

armed solution, neutralizing American, British and Chinese

posture still needed dependable strategic axis.

At this critical juncture therefore Mrs. Gandhi turned to the Soviet

Union.

Indo - USSR friendship and engagement that would define as an

important foreign policy instrument and paradigm of India in the

next two decades to come was to be inked during this period.

Non-aligned India, at this testing time of war strategically,

signed on 9 August 1971 the “Indo-Soviet Treaty

of Peace Friendship and Cooperation” to neutralizethe emerging Washington – British – Beijing – Islamabad axis and

defend India’s security and vital geopolitical interests.

Indo-Soviet strategic Collaboration

Neutralizing

American – British -

Chinese

India Moves

from Non-

Aligned to Sovietaligned Space


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Indo-Soviet Treaty provided the strategic

depth to India and in the actual run to the war,

Soviet war mobilization against American and

British naval move changed the course of war

in favour of India.

Given the Soviet involvement, China also

remained away from the war.

Sri Lanka during the war process had only

allowed Pakistan war planes to refuel in

Colombo which indicated Sri Lankan sympathy

with Pakistan.

Indo-Soviet Treatyof Friendship &

Cooperation


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Simla Accord

The cost of war was heavy on

Pakistan. Pakistan lost half its

navy, one fourth of its Air Force

and a third of its army.

India took 93,000 Prisoners of

War (POW) that includedPakistani soldiers as well as some

of their East Pakistani

collaborators.

Pakistan lost the war and aUnited Nations brokered peace

agreement popularly known as

Simla Agreement concluded the

war but started the next phase of

Indo-Pak engagement

The Simla Agreement signed by Prime

Minister Indira Gandhi and President

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto of Pakistan on 2nd July

1972 was much more than a peace treaty.

seeking to reverse the consequences of

the 1971 war (i.e. to bring about

withdrawals of troops and an exchange of

PoWs).

It was a comprehensive blue print for good

neighbourly relations between India and

Pakistan. Under the Simla Agreement both

countries undertook to abjure conflict and

confrontation

and to work towards the establishment of

durable peace, friendship and cooperation


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Coping with Nuclearization of South Asia

The latest report by the Bulletin of AtomicScientists highlights the future on nuclear

weapons in this region.

The report also claims that Pakistan had

around 100 nuclear weapons (warheads)around 2011 and by now their nuclear arsenal

has added approximately 20 more warheads.

Within the next ten years their overall

nuclear inventory could reach to 220 to 250

warheads

India explicitly clarified India’s nuclear capability as deterrent in nature.

As a responsible nuclear power proclaimed the principle of ‘No First Use’ (NFU)

as a basis of India’s nuclear doctrine

Pokhran Test 1998.

2003, Govt. of India’s

Formal ‘Nuclear Doctrine’


49/52


Having lost 3 Wars and subsequent Kargil War, Pakistansince late 1980s has launched a Proxy War or Jihadi

War against India.

Jehadi war has taken away Pakistan from governance

orientation to hosting international terrorism which

now is proving to be suicidal.

Next Phase


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Guns & Governance

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Defence Budget % of GDP 1988 -2010

China Japan India Pakistan Sri LankaSource: Compiled from World Bank


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0

2

46

8

10

12

1 9 9 5

9 6

9 7

9 8

9 9

2 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1 0

Health Expenditure % of GDP 1995-2010

India China Pakistan Sri Lanka Japan

Source: Compiled from World Bank Data


52/52

Both India & Pakistan must shift from their animosity & focuson Good Governance

Political Realism & Balance of Power strategy has not delivered.

They must there fore shift to Political Liberalism and Economic

Neoclassicism approach and focus on economic growth and

such tools to develop their own country.

Conclusion

Documents

Indo-Pak Class PPT