Inflacion & Papunsia Document

7/30/2019 Inflacion & Papunsia Document

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Inflacioni dhe PapunesiaMakroekonomi

Tre nga temat kryesore qe perbejne bazen e studimeve makroekonomike jane: elementet

percaktues te nivelit te rritjes se produktit te pergjithshem kombetar; inflacioni; papunesia.

INFLACIONI

Tre nga temat kryesore qe perbejne bazen e studimeve makroekonomike jane:elementet

percaktues te nivelit te rritjes se produktit te pergjithshem kombetar;inflacioni;papunesia.nga keto

tema, inflacioni dhe papunesia jane problemet ekonomike me te mprehta per opinionin publik. Nje

mates i shkalles se problemeve te paraqitura nga inflacioni dhe papunesia eshte treguesi i keqesise

se jeteses i shprehur nga shuma e nivelit te papunesise dhe nivelit te inflacionit. Kur ky tregues eshte

i larte, keto probleme duhet te konsiderohen si problemet baze te politikave ekonomike qeveritare.

Me inflacion kuptojme ngritjen e nivelit te pergjithshem te cmimeve. Keto ndryshimet ne nivelin e

cmimeve maten me normen e inflacionit e cila jepet:

t-eshte periudha koerente; t-1 - periudha paraardhese.

Duke qene se inflacioni shpreh ndryshimin e nivelit te cmimeve, si tregues te drejtperdrejte te tij

sherbejne indekset e cmimeve. Nje llogaritje e tille nuk eshte e lehte, nisur nga fakti se cmimet e

mallrave te ndryshem rriten ne nivele te ndryshme dhe madje, disa prej tyre edhe zvoglohen. Per

llogariten e nivelit te inflacionit ekonomistet perdorin kryesisht rritjen mesatare ne perqindje te

cmimeve.Keshtu llogariten tre indekse te pergjithshme te cmimeve:

1. Indeksi i cmimit te konsumatoriti cili mat koston e nje shporte mallrash dhesherbimesh te konsumuara gjate nje periudhe te caktuar, nga nje familje mesatare. Ne SHBA kjo

shporte permban 365 lloje mallrash dhe sherbimesh dhe mblidhen te dhena nga rreth 20.000 familje

qytetare.

2. Indeksi i cmimevete prodhuesit i cili mat nivelin e cmimeve te shitjes me shumice,pra nivelin e cmimeve Ne stadin e prodhimit. Ky indeks eshte i rendesishem per shkak te gjeresise se

mallrave dhe sherbimeve qe perfshin dhe perdoret gjeresisht Ne veprimtariNe tregetare (Ne SH.b.A

perfshin rreth 3400 mallra te ndryshem).

3. Deflatori i GNPi cili llogaritet si raport i GNP nominal dhe GNP real dhe interpretohet siindeksi i pergjithshem i cmimeve, perderisa perfshin cmimet e te gjitha mallrave dhe sherbimeve.

Shpesh ekonomistet e konsiderojNe deflatorin e GNP si indeksin me te mire te inflacionit.

Rendesia e studimit te fenomenit te inflacionit

Nese fenomeni i papunesise godet kryesisht vetem disa grupe te popullsise, inflacioni ne te kundert

ndikon mbi gjithe popullaten. Ne ekonomite moderne behet shume per zbutjen e ndikimit te

situatave inflacioniste. Normalisht, ne situta inflacioniste, nepermjet sindikatavepunonjesit arrijnete marrin paga me te larta, te cilat synojne te kompensojne rritjen e cmimeve, veprim ky qe njihet si
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indeksim i pagave mbi bazen e inflacionit.. Por, megjithe funksionimin e ketij mekanizmi zbutes apo

asimilues, lufta kunder inflacionit merr gjithnje nje rendesi te dores se pare, pasi:

Se pari, ka gjithnje grupe shoqerore qe vuajne vazhdimisht dhe drejtperdrejte pasojat e tij (rast tipik

jane pensionistet si edhe zoteruesit e kapitaleve ne para);

Se dyti, kur norma e inflacionit rritet shpejt, institucionet apo individet kreditore humbasin, e ne te

kundert ato debitore fitojne.Se treti, gjithe ekonomia destabilizohet nen efektin e normave te larta te inflacionit dhe cmimet e

prodhimit dhe te shitjes nuk mund te sinkronizohen lehte ne kohe.

Crregullimet inflacioniste jane rezultat i poltikaveekonomike te gabuara. Por shpesh per keto

crregullime fajesohet inflacioni, nderkohe qe fenomeni qe e shkakton eshte krejt tjeter.

Ne pergjithesi, inflacioni klasifikohet ne tre kategori:

1. Inflacioni i moderuari cili ndodh kur niveli i pergjithshem i cmimeve ngrihet ngadaledhe norma e tij mund te shprehet nepermjet nje numri nje shifror. Ne keto kushte cmimet jane

relativisht te qendrueshme dhe sistemi monetar funksionon mire.

2. Inflacioni galopanti cili shoqerohet me rritje cmimesh me nje norme dy dhe treshifrore (20%, 100%, 200% Ne vit). Nen kete efekt, funksionimi i sistemit ekonomik peson

crregullime serioze. Besimi tek paraja lekundet dhe pergjithsisht kontratat indeksohen me indeksin ecmimeve ose ne valuta te huaja. Parate e humbasin shpejt vleren e tyre dhe meqenese norma reale

e interesit merr vlera shume te ulta ose negative, tregu financiar venitet dhe roli i normes se

interesit si rregullator i saj bie shume.

3. Hiperinflacioni eshte nje dukuri e rralle Ne ekonomiNe boterore dhe eshte i pranishemsidomos ne kushtet e luftes. Cmimet ngrihen shume here cdo muaj. Shembuj te tille jane rritja e

cmimeve me Gjermanine e viteve 1922-1923, periudhe kur indeksi i cmimeve u rrit nga 1 ne

10.000.000, ne Bolivine e viteve 1985 me 12.000% inflacion, etj.

Por ekonomia tashme ka mesuar te bashkejetoje me inflacionin prandaj, para ekonomisteve

shtrohet pyetja nese eshte e nevojshme ose jo te tentohet nje nivel i moderuar inflacioni, pasi

tendenca per te ndaluar inflacionin con shpesh ne nje keqesim te ketij fenomeni. Megjithate, ne

pergjithsi mbizoteron ideja se nivele dy shifrore te inflacionit jane simptoma te nje ekonomie qefunksionon keq.

Burimet dhe llojet e inflacionit

Ekzistojne pikpamje te ndryshme lidhur me shkaqet dhe burimet e inflacionit. Sidoqofte, mbizoteron

pikpamja se inflacioni tenton te jete inercial (d.m.th me norma te pandryshuara), perderisa ne

ekonomi nuk kane ndodhur ndryshime te rendesishme ne anen e kerkeses dhe ofertes. Ne kete

menyre, ne funksion te analizes se burimeve te inflacionit duhet te dallojme inflacionin inercial,

inflacionin nga kerkesa dhe inflacionin nga oferta.

Inflacioni inercial quhet ndryshe inflacioni i parashikueshem ose i pritshem, per sa kohe qe

norma e inflacionit eshte e qendrueshme dhe per sa kohe nuk ndodhin ndryshime ne aNen ekerkeses dhe ofertes. Ne shumicen e vendeve me ekonomi moderne te industrializuar, procesi

inflacionist karakterizohet nga inercia. Kjo inerci lind kur shumica e subjekteve qe veprojne ne

ekonomi presin te njejten norme inflacioni. Nese keto parashikime inflacioniste do te pranohen edhe

nga njesite operative dhe institucionale te sistemit, thuhet ne kete rast se ekonomia ka hyre ne nje

spirale inflacioni. Karkteristika kryesore e nje spirale inflacioniste eshte se zhvillohet vete, pa patur

me baze shkaqet e vete inflacionit. Prirja per ritme te qendrueshme te inflacionit, lidhet me

menyren e percaktimit te cmimeve dhe pagave. Kur cmimet dhe pagat rriten dhe parashikohet te

rriten edhe ne te ardhmen, firmat dhe sindikatat do te perpiqen te perfshijne rritmet e shpejta te

inflacionit perkatesisht ne cmimet dhe marrveshjet per pagat. Ne kete menyre, norma e sotme e

inflacionit mbartet ne periudhat e ardhshme.

Inflacioni nga kerkesa ndodh kur kemi nje rritje te kerkeses agregate, si pasoje e nje rritjeje neoferten e parase, apo rritje e shpenzimeve qeveritare per mallra dhe sherbime. Cili do qofte burimi i
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3/8

rritjes se kerkeses agregate, kjo e fundit rritet shpejt duke e tejkaluar potencialin prodhues te

ekonomise. Cmimet do te rriten gjithashtu shpejt. Ne kete menyre, nje kerkese agregate e rritur

kundrejt nje oferte te kufizuar con shume shpejt ne inflacion pra, ne rritje te nivelit te cmimeve dhe

te pagave, gje qe i jep nje impuls te ri rritjes se inflacionit Inflacioni nga kostoja eshte nje fenomen i

ri ne ekonomite moderne te tregut. Ai ndodh kur kemi nje rritje te kostove te prodhimit si p.sh : si

rezultat i rritjes se kostos se materialeve te importuara, per shkak te faktoreve te brendshem (rritjesne kursin e kembimit dhe zhveleftesim i monedhes) apo te tregut tejashtem; rritje ne taksat

indirekte, etj. E vecanta e inflacionit nga kostoja eshte rritja e cmimeve ne kushtet e recensionit,

pra kur ekonomia eshte ne renie. Ajo gjendje e ekonomise, ku gershetohet inflacioni i larte me

papunesine masive,

Inflacioni nga kostoja eshte nje fenomen i ri ne ekonomite moderne te tregut. Ai ndodh kur kemi nje

rritje te kostove te prodhimit si p.sh : si rezultat i rritjes se kostos se materialeve te importuara, per

shkak te faktoreve te brendshem (rritjes ne kursin e kembimit dhe zhveleftesim i monedhes) apo te

tregut tejashtem; rritje ne taksat indirekte, etj. E vecanta e inflacionit nga kostoja eshte rritja e

cmimeve ne kushtet e recensionit, pra kur ekonomia eshte ne renie. Ajo gjendje e ekonomise, ku

gershetohet inflacioni i larte me papunesine masive, Ne kushtet e mosperdorimit te kapaciteteve

prodhuese quhet stagflacion. Keshtu ne vitin 1982, megjithse norma e papunesise ishte 10% pagat urriten 5%.

Kostot e inflacionit

Ne nje periudhe inflacioni, jo te gjitha cmimet (perfshire edhe pagat) ndryshojne me te njejten mase

dhe rritem, si pasoje do te kemi ndryshime ne cmimet relative. Pikerisht keto ndryshime ne cmimet

relative krijojNe dy efekte te inflacionit:

1. Inflacioni krijon nje rishperndarje te pasurise midis klasave apo shtresave te ndryshme te

popullsise;

2. Inflacioni con e nje bllokim jo eficient te burimeve te prodhimit.

Efektet konkrete te c'vleresimit te parase (pra, kostot e inflacionit) varen nga karakteri i inflacionitdhe pikerisht, Nese kemi te bejme me inflacioni te parashikuar ose te paparashikuar. Efektet e

ketyre dy formave te inflacionit ndryshojne mjaft. Parate perdoren si mase e vleres ne transaksionet

e ndryshme. huamaresit dhe huadhenesit, punetoret dhe punedhenesit, bejne kontrata ne vlere.

Nese vlera e parase ndryshon ne menyre te paparashikuar gjate kohes se inflacionit, atehere

madhesia reale e parase se paguar apo te marre (te fituar), ndryshon nga ajo e kontraktuar. Keshtu

p.sh, nese nje konsumator i vendos parate ne banke, me nje norme interesi vjetor prej 20% dhe

norma e inflacionit gjate ketij viti eshte po 20% atehere, me sasine e parave te marra ne fund te vitit

konsumatori do te mund te blinte te njejten sasi malli si perpara nje viti. E kunderta do te ndodhte

nese konsumatori do merrte nga banka nje hua vjetore (konsumatori praktikisht nuk do te paguante

interes, ndersa banka do te humbiste). Ndryshe ndodh kur inflacioni eshte i parashikuar. Ne kete

rast, kontratat (kontrata pune, shitblerjeje, kredi apo depozitime) Nenshkruhen duke marre parasyshindeksin e normes se parashikuar te inflacionit, duke zbutur ne kete menyre efektin negativ te

inflacionit ne shperndarjen e te ardhurave. Indeksimi eshte nje teknike e cila lidh pagesat qe behen

nepermjet nje kontrate, me nivelin aktual te cmimeve. Kjo teknike perdoret per indeksimin e

pagave, bursave, pensioneve dhe per transferta te tjera qeveritare apo private, me qellim qe te

shmanget efekti i inflacionit per keto kategori pagesash. Ne kete menyre, mbrohen ne njefare mase

interesat e paleve kontaktuese, si edhe niveli i jeteses se punojesve apo pensionisteve.
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4/8

PAPUNESIA

Inflacioni dhe papunesia sherbejne shpesh si tregues te vleresimit te pergjithshem te gjendjes se nje

sistemi ekonomik. nga pikepamja ekonomike, nje papunesi e larte nenkupton nje renie te GNP

aktual nen GNP potencial. Sa me i larte niveli i papunesise, aq me i madh do te jete hendeku

ndermjet GNP aktual dhe GNP potencial. Kjo lidhje e papunesise me GNP sipas ligjit te Okunshprehet ne nje renie te papunesise me 1% per cdo 2% renie te GNP aktual ndaj GNP potencial. Per

me teper, ne dallim nga burimet e tjera te prodhimit, puna mund te konsiderohet si burimi me pak i

zevendesueshem. Humbjet ekonomike te shkaktuara nga papunesia vleresohen me te medha se

humbjet e shkaktuara nga ineficienca e ndermarjeve. Nga ana tjeter, papunesia shoqerohet edhe me

kosto suplementare financiare qe qeveria i perdor per dhenie ndihme financiare te papuneve.

Zvoglimi i te ardhurave personale si rezultat i humbjes se vendit te punes, perben nje nga kostot e

dukshme te papunesise. Krahas kostove ekonomike, papuNesia shoqerohet edhe me kostot e saj

sociale, si zhvleresim i kapitalit njerezor (humbje te shkalles se arsimimit dhe aftesimit), ulje te

dinjitetit personal dhe vetvleresimit, si edhe si rritje te mundeshme te kriminalitetit.

Anatomia e papunesise

Pikenisja ne studimin e fenomenit te papunesise jepet nga koncepti i forces punetore. Sipas nje

perkufizimi nderkombetar te pranuar:

Ne forcen punetore perfshihen te punesuarit dhe personat ne kerkim te nje punesimi, ne kete

vleresim duhen patur parasysh dallimi ndermjet: individeve te zene ne pune, qe konsiderohen ata

persona te cilet kryejne nje pune te pagueshme, qofte edhe kur mungojne perkohesisht ne pune, te

papune, qe konsiderohen ata persona qe nukjane ne pune, por kerkojne pune ne menyre aktive

(gjate muajit te fundit), ose qe presin te rikthehen ne pune (ne muajin e ardhshem). Jashte forces

punetore klasifikohen personat qe jane ne moshe pune dhe nukjane te zene ne pune. Ky grup

perbehet nga studentet, invalidet, nxenesit ne moshe pune, ata qe kryejne sherbimin ushtarak, si

dhe personat qe aktualisht nuk kerkojne pune.Fluksi i levizjes ndermjet ketyre kategorive mund te shprehet me skemen e meposhtme, ku:

1 tregon fluksin e personave qe ndryshojne vendin e punes;

2 tregon fluksin e personave qe humbasin vendin e punes;

3 tregon fluksin e personave nga rradhet e te papuneve qe gjejne nje vend pune;

4 tregon daljen nga i papune nejashte forces punetore (si i papune i qe nuk kerkon me pune);

5 tregon hyrje ose rifutje ne forcen punetore, por fillimisht si i papune;

6 tregon hyrje ose rifutje ne forcen punetore, por tashme si i zene ne pune;

7 tregon humbjen e punes dhe daljen jashte forces punetore (p.sh. pensionistet apo personat qe

rikthehen ne shkolle).

Lidhja ndermjet kategorive te mesiperme jepet si me poshte:

Numri total i puneve te braktisura jepet me shumen e levizjeve 1,2 dhe 7.

Numri total i puneve te gjetura jepet me shumen e levizjeve 1,3 dhe 6.

Diferenca midis puneve te lena dhe puneve te gjetura jep ndryshimet ne punedhenie.

Ndryshimet ne papunesi jepen nepermjet diferences (2+5)-(3+4).
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kub.al/Tag_nuk.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nga.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_pune.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nga.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_me.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_mund.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_pune.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nuk.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_dhe.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_pune.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_studentet.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nga.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_pune.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nuk.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_dhe.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_pune.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_pune.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_pune.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_pune.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nuk.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_pune.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_edhe.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_pune.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_pune.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_dhe.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nga.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_jepet.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_rritje.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_edhe.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_dhe.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_dhe.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_me.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_edhe.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ekonomike.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nga.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ndihme.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_qeveria.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_me.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_edhe.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nga.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nga.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_me.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nga.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ekonomike.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_me.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_mund.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nga.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_me.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ndaj.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_me.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ne.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_me.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_lidhje.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_dhe.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_jete.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_do.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_me.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_me.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_ekonomike.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_nga.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_sistemi.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_te.aspxhttp://www.ikub.al/Tag_dhe.aspx


5/8

Per vete mprehtesine e problemit te papunesise dhe zgjedhjen e politikave ekonomike efikase,

saktesia e llogaritjes se treguesve te papunesise merr nje rendesi te vecante. Keshtu, ndryshimet ne

papunesi maten nepermjet normes se papunesise, e cila perfaqson raportin ne perqindje te numrit

te te papuneve dhe forces punetore:

Llojet e papunesise

Rryma te ndryshme ekonomike percaktojne edhe forma te ndryshme te papunesise, mbi bazen e te

cilave rekomandojne edhe rrugezgjidhjet perkatese. Disa prej ketyre formave jane:

1. Papunesia friksionale ( e ferkimit) qe krijohet kryesisht si rezultat i levizjes sevazhdueshme te punonjesve nga njeri vend pune ne kerkim te nje vendi tjeter. Kjo lloj papunesie

eshte e pashmangshme dhe ekonomikisht e justifikueshme, pasi con ne rishperndarje me efektive te

burimeve te punes. Ajo vleresohet nga niveli natyral i papunesise, i cili perfaqson nivelin e

papunesise qe rrjedh nga ekzistenca e levizjeve ne tregun e punes.2. Papunesia strukturore qe shfaqet per shkak te ndryshimit te kerkeses dhe ofertes perpune, si rezultat i ndryshimeve fondamentale qe ndodhin ne deget baze te ekonomise. Renia e

niveleve te prodhimit ne deget kryesore te ekonomise, ia le vendin koncentrimit te papunesise ne

ato rajone ku jane zhvilluar keto dege. Imobiliteti profesional (mungesa e gadishmerise dhe

veshtiresite lidhur me braktisjen e profesioneve te vjetra) dhe imobiliteti gjeografik (mungesa e

gadishmerise dhe veshtiresite per largimin nga rajonet depresive), i kontribojne ruajtjes se niveleve

te larta te papunesise ne keto rajone.

3. Papunesia ciklike lidhet me renien e kerkeses per te mira dhe sherbime te caktuara,sidomos ne fazen e renies ekonomike, gje qe con ne renien e kerkeses per fuqi punetore ne

ndermarjet qe prodhojne keto produkte apo sherbime.

4. Papunesia sezonale e cila lidhet me karakterin stinor te prodhimit apo sherbimit, si p.sh nedeget e industrise se ndertimit, turizmit, etj. Interpretimi ekonomik i papunesise perben edhe

ceshtjen me te mprehte dhe me kontradiktore te teorise makroekonomike. Pergjithsisht, pranohet

se ne sjelljen e faktorit pune, nje rol percaktues kane pagat.

Sipas njeres nga pikpamjet ekzistuese, ekonomistet pohojne se shkaku i papunesise duhet kerkuar

nejofleksibilitetin e pagave. Pagat jofleksibel i japin papunesise nje karakter te detyruar.

Sipas pikpamjes tjeter (Kejnsi, etj.), pagat jane fleksibile dhe papunesia ne keto kushte nuk mund te

konsiderohet e detyruar, por ajo eshte nje papunesi e vullneteshme.

5. Papunesia e vullnetshme (figura a) Sipas kesaj teorie, ne nivelin W te pages (pageekuilibri), ndermarjet (firmat) jane te gateshme te pajtojne ne pune te gjithe punetoret e kualifikuar

te cilet deshirojne te punojne me kete page te tregut (segmenti AE). Segmenti tjeter (EF), perfaqson

pjesen e punetoreve te pazene me pune, por qe do te pranonin te punonin vetem me nje page me te

larte se W. Kjo quhet papunesi e vullneteshme. Sipas kesaj teorie nje treg pune i karakterizuar nga

nje page plotesisht fleksibile nuk mund te kete papunesi te detyruar.
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6. Papunesia e detyruar (figura b) Kejnsi dhe shume ekonomiste te tjere besojne sepapunesia ciklike ndodh sepse pagat jane jofleksibile dhe nukjane ne gjendje te regullojne me

shpejtesi mungesen dhe tepricen e forces punetore. Ata supozojne se tregu e gjen vetvehten ne njepage orare W', qe eshte me e larte se paga e ekuilibrit. Numri i punetoreve te kualifikuar te gatshem

per pune, perfaqsohet ne kurben e ofertes ne piken G, nderkohe qe kerkesa e ndermarjeve per

punetore eshte vetem deri ne H. Segmenti HG tregon ne kete rast numrin e te papuneve, vecse ne

dallim nga rasti i mesiperm, ata jane te papune te detyruar. Teoria e papunesise se detyruar

mbeshtetet ne infleksibilitetin e pagave. Ky infleksibilitet vjen nga fakti se tregjet e punes jane

pergjithsisht tregje te administruara dhejo tregje ankandi. Ndermarjet i administrojne pagat per

punonjesit e tyre nepermjet tarifave fikse, pergjithsisht njevjecare (kontratave te punes), te cilat

edhe kur ndryshohen, rregullimi behet pak a shume propocional per te gjitha llojet e pagave.

Per tregjet e sindikalizuara te punes, sjelljet e pagave jane akoma me te ngurtesuara. Tarifat e

pagave vendosen per nje peiudhe 3 vjecare ne kontrate dhe nuk mund te sherbejne si rregullator i

tregut te kerkeses dhe ofertes se punes.ne pergjithsi mund te thuhet se ne afate te shkurter tregjet e punes veprojne si ne grafikun b) por,

per perudha afatgjata, pagat levizin per te balancuar kerkesen dhe oferten, si ne grafikun a).

Sidoqofte, derisa te realizohen keto pershtatje, do te jete e pranishme papunesia e detyruar

RaportiInflacion-Papunesi. Kurba e Phillips

Punezenia e plote dhe stabiliteti i cmimeve jane dy nga objektivat qendrore makroekonomike te cdo

qeverie. Per te luftuar papunesine personat pergjegjes te politikes ekonomike kerkojne shpesh ti

japin nje impuls ekonomise. me zvoglimin e kesaj papunesie, sistemi ekonomik i afrohet perdorimit

te plote te aftesive te tij dhe tregu i punes fillon te ezaurohet. Nje numer i madh ndermarjesh gjenveshtiresi ne gjetjen e punetoreve te kualifikuar dhe ne kushtet e nje konkurence te larte, pagat

fillojne e ngrihen. Keshtu, nje papunesi ne nivele te ulta con ne rritje te pagave, rritje e cila permes

spirales inflacioniste, gjeneron vete nje rritje te cmimeve. Ekziston keshtu nje lidhje inverse ndermjet

papunesise dhe inflacionit: nivelet e ulta te papunesise do te shoqerohen me nivele te larta te

inflacionit.

Kjo marredhenie eshte quajtur kurba e Phillips, sipas emrit te ekonomistit qe analizoi marrdhenien

ndermjet papunesise dhe inflacionit te Britanise se Madhe te viteve 1861 dhe 1957 (figura 3).

Kerkimet e tij tregojne mundesine e arritjes se nje niveli te ulet inflacioni, por me nje cmim - nje nivel

me te larte papunesie.

te dhenat e analizuara nga Phillips rezulton se pagat (pra, dhe cmimet) mund tejene stabile per nje

nivel papunesie rreth 5,5%. Kur niveli i papunesise gjendet ne nje pike prane vleres zero, niveli iinflacionit behet jashtezakonisht i larte. Niveli i papunesise per nje nivel zero te inflacionit quhet
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norma natyrore e papunesise. Per nje nivel me te ulet

papunesie, niveli i cmimeve tenton te rritet dhe per nje

nivel me te larte cmimet tentojne te zbresin.

Norma natyrore e papunesise (NNP) perben edhe nje

nga konceptet kryesore te makroekonomise moderne.

Ajo perfaqson pra, ate norme papunesie per te cilentregjet e punes dhe te te mirave jane te balancuara.Kjo

norme papunesie:

- se pari, eshte me e madhe se zero, pra edhe ne nje

shoqeri me nje punezenie te larte, nje numer i caktuar individesh te forces punetore do tejene te

papune ne formen e papunesise se ferkimit apo papunesise strukturore.

- se dyti, NNP eshte e lidhur ngushte me inflacionin. Shoqeria do te preferonte nje papunesi te ulet

por jo aq te ulet sa te rezikonte lindjen e nje inflacioni te paparashikuar. Pra NNP perfaqson nivelin

me te ulet te papunesise qe mund te arrihet pa rezikun e akselerimit te inflacionit jo te pritshem.

Masa ne te cilen duhet ti afrohemi normes natyore, varetnga inflacioni shtese me te cilen ai

shoqerohet. Nese kuba e Phillips do te jete mjaft e pjerret, atehere kosto me te cilin do te pagohet

zvoglimi i papunesise, do jete e larte dhe ne te kundert, luftimi i inflacionit do te conte ne nje nivelme te larte te papunesise. Ne zhvendosjet e kurbes se Phillips, vlejne te njejtet principe te

vleresuara ne lidhje me kurbat e kerkeses dhe ofertes. Keshtu, eshte perseri mjaft i rendesishem

dallimi ndermjet levizjes gjate kurbes dhe spostimit te kurbes se Phillips. ne figuren 3, tregohet nje

levizje nga pika A e nje kurbe Phillips, ne piken b te kurbes se re Phillips. Duke qene se kurba eshte

spostuar lart, ne piken b kemi me shume papunesi dhe inflacion se ne piken A.

Ne pergjithesi, arsyet e spostimeve te kurbes se Phillips jane:

- se pari, te ashtuquajtuit faktore reale si ndryshimet ne kohe, ne permasat dhe perberjen e forces se

afte per pune dhe shpejtesia me te cilen keto subjekte jane te afta te spostohen nga nje pune ne

tjetren (te influencuara edhe nga progresi teknik, i cili rrit nevojen e kopetencave teknike te fuqise

punetore).

- se dyti, parashikimet inflacioniste.Duhet theksuar se kurbat e Phillips te shqytuara deri tani, paraqesin marrdhenien ndermjet

inflacionit dhe papunesise per nje periudhe te shkurter kohe. Per periudha afatgjata, nese merren

per baze edhe parashikimet inflacionistike plotesisht racionale, kjo kurbe merr formen e nje linje

vertikale (ose te pakten mjaft te pjerret), duke shprehur keshtu faktin se nuk ekziston asnje

marredhenie (mundesie) qe te jete ne gjendje te coje nivelin e papunesise nen normen natyrale. Cdo

tentative nga ana e pergjegjesve te politikes ekonomike, per te zvogluar e nivelit te papunesise nen

normen natyrale, do te coje ne nje rritje te nivelit te inflacionit dhe do te jete vetem tranzitore.
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Documents

Inflacion & Papunsia Document