Innovation “State” of China and Germany May, 2014

CASTED 2014

Innovation “State” of China and Germany

May, 2014

Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development中国科学技术发展战略研究院

Hu Zhijian Li Zhe胡志坚李哲

CASTED 2014

为什么是创新“状态”？ Why innovation "state"?

• 一般采用现状（各种指标）直接比较的办法 Usually various indicators are DIRECTLY compared:– 德国一些指标领先中国 Germany leads China in some indicators – 中国一些指标领先德国 China leads Germany in some indicators– 各种排名 Various Countries Ranking in the world– 这种领先与落后有意义吗？ But is it really meaningful to say a

country is "advaned" or "backward" with this approach?• 政策含义不清 The implication of policy is still unclear

– 没有考虑创新领域的国际分工和比较优势 Falied to consider international division of labour and comparative advantage in terms of innovation

– 没有考虑经济发展水平 / 阶段 Failed to consider different stage/level of economic developement

– 不能告诉我们各自的竞技状态如何 Can not really reveal what their states or conditions are

CASTED 2014

为什么是创新“状态”？ Why innovation "state"?

• 状态比较可能更有意义 Thus it might be more meaningful to compare different conuntries' "state"– 困难：如何诊断一国的创新状态？绝对 / 相对？ Difficulty: How to

diagnose one country's innovation "state"? Relatively or absolutely?

• 尝试：分类比较（相对） An attempt: grouoped and then compared (relatively)

• Germany and China are currently at different stage of development. It will be an interesting perspective to compare their innovation “state” with those countries at the same stage.– 整体竞争力 Overall Competitiveness– 创新资源 Innovation Resources– 产业创新与创新环境 Industrial Innovation and Innovation

Environment– FDI 和国际贸易 FDI and Trade

CASTED 2014

Germany• High income country• GDP per capita 42625 US$ （ 2012 ）• Has established a relatively complete industrial system and

finished the process of urbanization• Agriculture 0.8% of GDP ， industry 30.5% of

GDP ， services, etc.68.7% of GDP （ 2012 ）• Main industrial sectors ： automotive manufacture,

mechanical engineering, electrical engineering and chemicals.

Economic Structure

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

20

40

60

80

100

Services, etc. Industry Agriculture

Year

%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

20

40

60

80

100

Services, etc. Industry Agriculture

Year

%

source: the Database of World Bank.

China• Upper middle-income country• GDP per capita 6091 US$ （ 2012 ）• Experiencing the rapid development period of

urbanization and industrialization• Agriculture 10.1% of GDP ， industry 45.3% of

GDP ， services, etc.44.6% of GDP （ 2012 ）• Main industrial sectors ： smelting and pressing of

ferrous metal ； manufacture of computers, communication and other electronic equipment ； manufacture of transport facilities ； manufacture of raw chemical materials and products

CASTED 2014

Overall Competitiveness

-National Innovation Index-World Competitiveness Ranking-Labor Productivity-Investment Returns-Energy Efficiency

CASTED 2014

•Germany ranks 10th among developed countries, its innovation state is not ideal. •China ranks first among developing countries, its innovation state is relatively

good.德国在发达国家中的排第 10 位，相对状态并不是非常理想中国处于发展中国家首位，创新状态相对较好

Source ： National Innovation Index 2013

National Innovation Index

Ranking2012 2011

1 2

2 3

3 1

4 4

5 11

6 5

7 8

8 9

9 6

10 10

11 7

12 12

USA

Japan

Swiss

South Korea

Israel

Sweden

Finland

Holland

Danmark

Germany

Singapore

UK

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

100.0 99.1

95.2

88.5

78.1

77.6

75.2

74.8

74.6

73.7

72.6

71.5

China

Russia

South Africa

Brasil

India

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

65.2

48.2

46.0

40.8

40.6

Ranking2012 2011

19 20

32 34

35 37

38 36

39 40

CASTED 2014

World Competitiveness Ranking

•Germany, followed by USA, UK and Japan, takes the lead among developed countries.

•China ranks first in developing countries.德国在发达国家中领先美国、英国、日本等国，保持领先中国在发展中国家中领先

Nation or Region 2012-2013 2011-2012Swiss 1 1

Singapore 2 2Finland 3 4Sweden 4 3Holland 5 7

Germany 6 6USA 7 5UK 8 10

Japan 10 9Franch 21 18Italy 42 　 43 　

Nation or Region 2012-2013 2011-2012

China 29 26

Brazil 48 53

South Africa 52 50

India 59 56

Russia 67 66

Source ： World Economic Forum " Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013 "

CASTED 2014

•Labor Productivity in Germany is slightly lower than the average level of high income countries, its state is steady.

•China has surpassed the average level of upper middle income countries since 2009, its state is progressing.

德国略低于高收入国家的平均水平，状态稳定中国自 2009 年超过了中等收入国家的平均水平，状态向好

Labor Productivity (GDP/labors)

2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Germany High income countries

2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

China Upper middle income countries

Source: China Statistical Yearbook on Science and Technology

CASTED 2014

Investment Returns (P/E and P/B in 2013)

Source: “The Economic Observer” and The author managed

•Investment return rate of Germany is close to that of USA and higher than that of Japan and France, its state is good among developed countries.

•Investment return rate in China is lower than that of other BRICS countries.德国的投资回报周期短于法国、日本，与美国相近，在发达国家中处于较好状态中国的投资回报周期高于其他金砖国家，投资效率相对较低

Germany DAX

S&P500 Dow Jones Industrial Average

Japan NIKKEI225

France CAC0

5

10

15

20

25

Price to Earnings Ratio Price to Book Ratio

ChinaH

ang S

eng

China S

ZSE

China S

SE Com

p

Brazil B

OVESPA

Russia

MIC

EX

India

BSE

0

5

10

15

20

25

Price to Earnings Ratio Price to Book Ratio

Note: The reciprocal of PE ratio reflects investment return rate.

CASTED 2014

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Gemany High Income Countries

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

China Upper Middle Income Countries

Source: World Bank "World Development Indicators" Database

•Energy efficiency in Germany continues to improve, its state is superior compared to the average level of high income countries.

•Energy efficiency in China is improving but still lower than the average level of upper middle income countries.

德国的能源使用效率不断提高，状态优于高收入国家中国的能源使用效率正在改进，相对中高收入国家仍处于较低水平

Energy Efficiency- GDP per unit of energy use (Constant 2005 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)

CASTED 2014

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

2

4

6

8

10

12


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

2

4

6

8

10

12


Source: World Bank "World Development Indicators" Database

•Germany ‘s energy efficiency is lower than the average level of high income countries, and shows a downward trend in recent years. Its state is good.

•China surpassed the average level of upper middle income countries in 2004 and kept rising in following years. Its state is poor.

德国明显低于高收入国家的平均水平，近年呈下降趋势，状态良好中国 2004 年超过中等收入国家的平均水平并持续上升，状态较差

Energy Efficiency- CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)

CASTED 2014

Innovation Resource

-R&D/GDP-Researchers and Technicians (per million people)-Citations Per Paper in ESI-Number of Triadic Patent Families Patents

CASTED 2014

R&D/GDP (%)

• Both Germany and China’s R&D/GDP ratio are above the average of high income countries and upper middle-income countries respectively and keep growing.

两国分别超过高收入和中高收入国家的平均水平，并呈增长趋势，均处于较好状态

2000 2005 2007 20090.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%


2000 2005 2007 20090.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

China Upper middle income countries


CASTED 2014

Researchers and Technicians (per million people)

• Germany is just below the average level of high income countries but the gap has narrowed in recent years.

• China is above the average level of upper middle-income countries and is rich in talent reserve.

德国略低于高收入国家的平均水平，近年差距有所缩小中国高于中高收入国家的平均水平，在研究和技术人员储备方面状态较好

2000 2005 2007 2008 20090

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000


persons

2000 2005 2007 2008 20090

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

China Upper middle income countris


CASTED 2014


•Germany is at the upper level among the high income countries and skilled in the knowledge creation.

•China is in a leading position among all the developing countries and also in a sound state.

德国在发达国家处于中上等水平，处于较好的知识创造状态中国在同类发展中国家中处于领先位置，也处于较好的知识创造状态

Germany USA UK France Japan0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

China Brazil India Turkey Russia0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Citations Per Paper in ESI (times/piece)

CASTED 2014

Number of Triadic Patent Families Patents （ 2011 ）

•Germany with America and Japan belong to the first-class intellectual powers, while China has stepped up to join the second-class powers, leading other emerging countries.

德国与美、日同为世界第一梯队的知识产权强国中国快速跃升至第二梯队的知识产权大国，遥遥领先与其它新兴国家

Japan

United States

Germany

France

Korea

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Switzerland

Italy

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

13705

12649

4982

2053

1709

1371

811

708

595

China

Russian Federation

South Africa

India

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

958

48

21

2


CASTED 2014

Industrial Innovation and Innovation Environment

-R&D Expenditure of Enterprises-Added Value in High-tech Industry-Time and Procedures Required to Start a Business-Innovation Environment

CASTED 2014

•Germany has maintained a steady growth of R&D intensity and it remains at the upper level among developed countries.

•China increases its R&D intensity rapidly and takes the lead in BRICS countries.•德国一直保持稳步增长的高强度研发投入强度，在主要发达国家中处于中上水平•中国企业研发投入迅速提高，在金砖国家中领先

R&D Expenditure Input Intensity of Enterprises

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 China; 1.9

2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8

1.6

1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3

2.2 1.9 Brazil; 1.9

India 1.2 Ruassia 0.9

South Africa 0.5

BERD/Value Added of Industry(%)

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9

3.1 3.0 3.1 Germany; 3.1 France 2.5

Japan 3.9

South Korea 4.5

UK 1.8

USA 3.3

BERD/Value Added of Industry(%)

CASTED 2014

Added Value in High-tech Industry

•The value of high-tech sectors in Germany grows steadily, but there is still a wide gap between Germany and America.

•The scale of high-tech sectors in China expands dramatically, higher than that in other BRICS countries and close to that of the USA.

德国高技术产业稳定增长，与美国、日本有差距较大。中国高技术产业规模急速扩张，远高于其他金砖国家，接近美国。

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Germany 82,581

France 31,134

Japan 129,327

South Korea 53,593

UK 47,650

USA 416,344

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Brazil 35,744

India 14,226Russia 20,882

China 364,938

South Africa 1,497

CASTED 2014

•After 2007, the number of days in Germany was lower than the average level of high income countries, revealing its high efficiency.

•The number of days in China was lower than the average level of upper middle income countries (except in 2014), also revealing its high efficiency.

德国在 2007 年后低于高收入国家平均水平，处于高效率状态中国低于中等收入国家的平均水平（ 2014 年除外），也处于高效率状态

Time Required to start a Business

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Days

Source: World Bank "Doing Business"

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Days

CASTED 2014

•The numbers of procedures in Germany and China are higher than the average levels of high-income countries and upper middle income countries respectively, and they did not decline spontaneously as the average levels did.

•The tendencies of both countries reveal their low efficiency.德国高于高收入国家的平均水平，且并未与高收入国家同步下降；中国高于中高收入国家

的平均水平，也没有与高收入国家实现同步下降两国在这个指标上都处于较低状态

Procedures Required to start a Business

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Numbers

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Numbers

Source: World Bank "Doing Business"

CASTED 2014

•Innovation environment in Germany is close to that of the USA and France. Germany ranks higher among developed countries, but it is weak in venture capital availability.

•Innovation environment in China is relatively good among BRICS countries, but China is weak in respect of anti-monopoly policy and intellectual property protection.

德国创新环境与美国、法国相近，在发达国家位居前列，但在风险资本的可获得性等方面较弱中国创新环境在金砖国家中整体较优，在反垄断、知识产权保护等方面较弱

Intellectual property protection

Burden of government regulation

Macroeconomic stability

Local availability of research and training services

Effectiveness of anti-monopoly policy

Pay and productivity

Venture capital availability

State of cluster development

University-industry research collaboration

Gov’t procurement of advanced tech products

0

5

10

India Brazil Russian Federation

South Africa China

Intellectual property protection

Burden of government regulation

Macroeconomic stability

Local availability of research and training services

Effectiveness of anti-monopoly policy

Pay and productivity

Venture capital availability

State of cluster development

University-industry research collaboration

Gov’t procurement of advanced tech products

0

5

10

Germany France United States

Innovation Environment

Source ： World Economic Forum

CASTED 2014

FDI and International Trade

- Outward FDI stock/ GDP- Rank of Outward FDI Flows- Rank of Inward FDI Flows of Germany and China- Export of GDP- Import of GDP

CASTED 2014

Outward FDI stock/ GDP (%)

source:the Database of GERMANY TRADE&INVEST , the Database of UNCTAD and CSYD.

•Germany’s outward FDI stock/GDP is higher than the average level of developed countries and is always in an proactive state doing oversea investment.

•China’s outward FDI stock/GDP is far below the average of the world and that of developing countries and has been increasing in recent years.

德国的对外投资存量占 GDP 比例高于发达国家平均水平，处于积极的对外投资状态中国的对外投资存量占 GDP 比例远低于世界平均水平和发展中国家平均水平，近年有所增长

1967 1973 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 20120

5

10

15

20

25

30

4 4.25.3

8.6

20.6

23.9

0.600000000000001

0.600000000000001 0.9

4.3

13.4 12.8

5.3 5.8 6

World average level Average level in developing economies China

1967 1973 1980 1990 2000 20050

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

4 4.2 5.3

8.6

20.6

23.9

4.8 5.016.2

9.6

22.8

27.9

1.63.4

4.7

9.1

29

34.6

World average level Average level in developed economies Germany

CASTED 2014

Outward FDI Flows (2012)

source:based on 2013 world investment report.

Outward FDI (US dollar bil-lions ）

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Chile; 21

Mexico; 26

Russian Federa-tion; 51

China; 84

•Germany’s outward FDI flow is behind that of USA,Japan and UK,ranking 6th in the world and is in a proactive but steady state.

•China ’s outward FDI flow ranks 1st among all the developing countries, 3rd in the world and is in a growing state.

德国处于美国、日本、英国之后，位于世界第六位，表现为稳定积极的状态中国大陆处于发展中国家的首位，位于世界第三位，处于增长态势

Outward FDI （ US dol-lar billions ）

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Luxembourg; 17

Ireland; 19

Norway; 21

Singapore; 23

Italy; 30

Korea; 33

Sweden; 33

France; 38

British Virgin Islands; 42

Switzerland; 44

Canada; 54

Germany; 67

UK ; 71

Hongkong; 84

Japan; 123

USA, 329

Outward FDI (US dollar bil-

lions ）

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Chile; 21

Mexico; 26

Russian Feder-ation; 51

China; 84

CASTED 2014

Inward FDI flows of Germany and China(2012)

Sin-gapor

e

Japan Korea Amer-ica

Ger-many

France Canada

UK Italy0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

FDI flows to China (millions)

USA France Nether-lands

Ireland Spain Switzer-land

Italy Austria China0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

FDI flows to Germany (millions)

Source:OECD.Stat, 2012 statistical belletin of China's outward FDI,International trade in 2014.

•China’s share ranks 9th among all the inward FDI flows of Germany, which is less than 1 billion dollars in 2012.

•Germany’s share ranks 5th among all the inward FDI flows of China, which is around 2 billion dollars in 2012.

在德国吸收的外资中，中国位于第九位，不到 10 亿美元在中国吸收的外资中，德国位于第五位，约 20 亿美元

CASTED 2014

Export / GDP(%)

source: Database of World Bank.

•Germany’s export/GDP ratio is much higher than that of other developed countries,and keeps on growing.

•China’s export/GDP ratio is similar with that of Russian Federation,South Africa and is declining.

德国出口占 GDP 的比例远高于其他发达国家，处于上升态势中国出口占 GDP 的比例与俄罗斯、南非相近，处于下降态势

2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120

10

20

30

40

50

60

Brazil 12.56

China 27.33

India 24.00

Russian Federation 29.44

South Africa 28.26

Year

%

2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120

10

20

30

40

50

60

United States 13.52

Germany 51.79

Japan 14.66

France 27.44

United Kingdom 31.54

Year

%

CASTED 2014

Import of GDP(%)

source: Database of World Bank.

•Germany’s import/GDP ratio is much higher than that of other developed countries and it keeps on growing.

•China’s import/GDP ratio is lower than that of South Africa and India, and it is declining.

德国进口占 GDP 的比例远高于其他发达国家，处于积极的状态中国进口占 GDP 的比例低于南非和印度，总体逐渐下降的状态

2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120

10

20

30

40

50

United States 16.89

Germany 45.8715871587157

Japan 16.64

France 29.6522136008438

United Kingdom 33.69

Year

%

2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120120

10

20

30

40

50

Brazil 13.99

China 24.51

India 30.74

Russian Federation 22.14

South Africa 31.31

Year

%

CASTED 2014

Conclusions This analytical method based on “state” is just a new exploration for international comparison. The method is preliminary tested by selecting the above indicators. The differences of countries can often be predicted based on traditional comparative approach. Relatively speaking, the results are unpredictable based on this “state” analysis, which may well provide us with some new insights when considering innovation policy.

小结•基于“状态”的分析方法只是一种新的尝试•通过选取上述指标，我们初步探索应用了这种方法•传统的直接比较中，差异在分析之前往往就能预知。相对而言，“状态”方法在分析之前很难预知，能够引申出新的政策含义

CASTED 2014

Li Zhe

86-10-58884536, [email protected]

THANKS

Documents

Innovation “State” of China and Germany May, 2014