Institutional, Planning And Demand Risks For Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects 捷运项目的体制、規劃和需求風險

Richard Di Bona, LLA Consultancy Ltd, Hong Kong

狄保华, LLA顾问有限公司,香港

5th Annual China RailWorld Summit 2011, Beijing, 14 January 2011

第五届中国轨道世界大会2011,北京, 2011年1月14日

Contents目录

1. Introduction: Mass Rapid Transit Forms

介绍: 捷运系统

2. Institutional Buy-In, Co-ordination & Conflict

公共机构购入、合作和冲突

3. Planning & Integration: Do’s, Don’t’s & Risks

计划及整合: 守则及风险

4. Demand Risks

需求风险

Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

What do we mean by mass transit? 甚么是集体运输?

• Commuter rail 通勤铁路

• Metro/ MRT/ MTR 地下铁道/捷运/地铁

• LRT, Monorail or Tram 轻铁

• Bus Rapid Transit 巴士捷运

• Personal Rapid Transit 个人捷运

Some system-specific issues , but many basic principles are pretty similar

虽然某些系统有个别问题，但基本原则十分相似


Examples of Mass Transit 捷运例子

Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

Hong Kong 香港 Soure: wikipedia.org

Dubai杜拜 Source: wikipedia.org

Tehran 伊朗德黑兰

Tianjin, China 天津

Bangkok (Skytrain) 曼谷(空中列车)

Bangkok (Subway) 曼谷(地下铁)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dubai_Metro.JPG

Examples of LRT & Monorail 轻铁及单轨例子


Tuen Mun, Hong Kong 香港屯门

Source: wikipedia.org

Kuala Lumpur (Putra/ Kelana Jaya LRT) 吉隆坡(Putra/ Kelana Jaya轻铁)

Kuala Lumpur Monorail吉隆坡单轨

Mashhad LRT, Iran伊朗马什哈德轻铁

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:LRT_Double_751.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UrbanRailwayMSHD.jpg

Hierarchies & Networks 层次结构及网络

Within larger cities, it is common to have: 常见于大城市:

•Multiple lines for a type of rapid transit 多行类型的捷运

•Multiple types of rapid transit 多种类型的捷运

•Supporting modes & lines – feeders 支持模式及线路-支线:


Hierarchies & Networks 层次结构及网络

Remember:

请记住:

•One line only serves origins and destinations directly accessible to it 每条路线只服务直达的起点和目的地

•With a network, the % of trips which can be served grows rapidly 在一个网络，旅程的百分比可迅速增长


Cost versus Capacity 成本与容量

Source: Montassar DRAIEF-SYSTRA; World Bank

捷运

巴士捷运

轻铁

单轨


Institutional Issues 公共机构问题

1. Which bodies could be relevant? 识别相关公共机构

2. What are their strengths and weaknesses?公共机构的优势和弱点

3. Do institutions collaborate and cooperate or do they compete? 公共机构应合作或是竞争?


Examples of Relevant Institutions 相关公共机构例子

Bodies which may be relevant institutions: 相关公共机构:

•City government departments, councils 市政府部门、议会

•Central government 中央政府

•Police 警方

•Transport operators (public, private or partnerships) 交通运输经营者(公营、私营或合伙)


Relevant Institutions Defined As: 相关公共机构定義:

Any body with responsibility for planning, implementation, operation of rapid transit or for enforcement of transport policy or legislation

所有单位皆有规划、履行、运作捷运或强制执行交通政策或立法的责任


Institutional Strengths & Weaknesses 公共机构的优势和弱点

Do institutions collectively possess capabilities required for existing and new modes? 公共机构是否对现有和新的模式要求拥有能力呢?

•Planning, design & construction 规划、设计及施工

•Operation & maintenance 运行及保养

•Performance monitoring & improvement 表现监测和改善

•Integration with other lines and modes 与其他线路及模式整合


Institutional Strengths & Weaknesses 公共机构的优势和弱点

Do institutions just have responsibility or do they also have authority? 公共机构是有责任及权力吗?

Where in-house capabilities weak, can they at least manage outsourced provision? 内部能力弱，至少他们能管理外包吗?


Values, Objectives & Priorities 价值观、目标及优先权

• Are common policies, values and objectives shared between institutions? 公共机构之间有共同的政策、价值观及目标吗?

• Or are there conflicting priorities or even conflicting objectives? 有优先权或目标的冲突吗?

• If potentially conflicting priorities are identified, then it is possible to find a collaborative solution, within the context of overarching civic transport policy 在总体城市交通政策中，如果潜在冲突的优先事项确定后，则有可能找到协作的解决方案


Values, Objectives & Priorities 价值观、目标及优先权

• Metro operators want to maximise their lines’ patronage 地铁运营商希望能大量增加线路乘客

• Bus operators wish to maximise bus patronage 巴士运营商希望能大量增加巴士乘客

• Traffic police wish to minimise traffic congestion 交通警察希望能大量减少交通交通挤塞

• But they should share objective of maximising transport efficiency, effectiveness and public transport mode share 但他们应有提高运输效率、效益及公共交通共享的共同目的


Hierarchy and Values 层次结构和价值观

• A public transport system may include many modes, such as: rail, metro, bus, walking; even cycling, taxis & cars (park & ride) 公共交通系统模式包括: 铁路、地铁、巴士、步行；甚至单车、的士和汽车(停车换乘)

• Essential to see each mode or line in its place 有必要看各模式及线路


Hierarchy and Values 层次结构和价值观

• Do not forget about the first and last part of a journey – usually walking 记住旅程的第一和最后的部分 –通常是步行

• Think from the perspective of the passenger

由道路使用者的角度设想


Example: Bangkok, Thailand 例子:泰国曼谷

• 14 or 15 agencies involved in rapid transit 14-15不同的机构参与捷运

• Conflicting objectives 目标冲突

• Conflicting loyalties (e.g. political loyalties) 忠心冲突(政治忠心)


Example: Bangkok, Thailand 例子:泰国曼谷

• Hard to secure and enforce agreements: 难以保证和执行协议:

– Bus network restructuring (from competing to feeder routes) 巴士网络重组(接驳路线竞争)

– Other lines seen as competing (vertical and horizontal segregation at supposed interchanges) 与其他线路竞争 (隔离纵向和横向交汇处)


Example: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 例子:马来西亚吉隆坡

• Had similar problems to Bangkok: 与曼谷的问题相似: – outcome was poor integration of existing LRT lines 导致现有的轻铁线路缺乏整合

• But now reorganised transport administration under a unified authority (Prasarana) 但现在有一个统一的运输管理机构(Prasarana)重组


Example: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 例子:马来西亚吉隆坡

• New MRT lines being developed to improve interchange 新捷运线改善转乘

• National transport policies also being aligned with pro-public transport objectives 国家运输政策亦赞同公共运输目标


Planning Issues 规划问题

• Macro-level: Urban form & development density; socio-economics (population, car ownership) 宏观: 城市形态及发展密度；社会经济因素(人口增长、汽车拥有)

• Meso-level: Integration between systems; scope for strategic pedestrian networks 细观: 系统之间的整合；策略性行人网络范围

• Micro-level: Interchange facilities; pedestrian accessibility 微观: 转乘设施；行人可达性


Urban Form & Development Density 城市形态及发展密度

• Determines realistic potential patronage and requirements for feeder services 确定接驳服务实际潜在的乘客和要求

• High density, ribbon development is ideal: demand concentrates in corridors: Naturally (Hong Kong) or by strong planning (Singapore, Curitiba) 高密度与带状发展是理想的:走廊的集中需求:自然发生(香港)或有强力规划推进(新加坡、巴西库里提巴)

• Use Transit Oriented Development (“TOD”) 公交导向发展


High Density Ribbon Development 密度高的带状发展


Above and Right: Hong Kong

Below: Curitiba, Brazil (Curitiba courtesy of Alan Cannell)

上图、右图:香港下图:巴西库里提巴(Curitiba courtesy of Alan Cannell)

Relationship to City Development 城市发展的关系


Above and Right: Curitiba, Brazil

Below: Mashhad, Iran

上图、右图:巴西库里提巴下图:伊朗马什哈德

Fractal Approach to Integration of Modes 综合运输

• Begin with strategic routes/ demand analysis 由策略路线 /需求分析开始

• Then feeder modes/ routes 接驳方式/路线

• Potential congestion issues (transit & traffic) 潜在的交通挤塞问题

• Then work downwards to “short distance” issues 然后下调至“短距离”的问题


Short Distance & Interchange Issues 短距离和转乘问题

• Station interchange and pedestrian aspects often forgotten or under-prioritised 车站转乘和行人–往往是被忽略或是次考虑

• Interchange is undesirable relative to point-to-point journeys, so minimise inconvenience 对于点至点的旅程來說，转乘是不受欢迎的，

所以应尽量减少不便


Inter-Modal Integration: Short Distance 综合运输:短距离

To interchange at KL Sentral Station from Monorail: 在吉隆坡中央火车站转乘单轨铁路:


Pedestrian Designs: Tehran & Mashhad 行人设计:德黑兰和马什哈德


Pedestrian Designs: KL Monorail 行人设计:吉隆坡单轨


Climate / Air-Conditioning 气候 /空调 Without Air-Conditioning:

Bangkok Skytrain (left)

KL Monorail (right)

无空调:

曼谷空中列车(左图)

吉隆坡单轨(右图)

Air-Con:

Bangkok Blue Line (left)

KL Kelana Jaya LRT (right)

部分/所有车站有空调:

曼谷蓝线(左图)

吉隆坡Kelana Jaya

轻铁 (右图)


Inter-Modal Integration: Phasing 综合运输:阶段

As cities develop and as transport networks are implemented, especially rapid transit lines: 随着城市发展和交通网络的实施(捷运线路):

•Strategic demands will evolve 逐步形成策略需求

•Feeder requirements will evolve 逐步形成支线要求

•Congestion issues may change 拥塞的问题可能会改变


Inter-Modal Integration: Phasing 综合运输:阶段

• Principal of building up public transport demand: buses until rapid transit implemented 主要建设公共交通的需求：巴士直到实施捷运

• Don’t forget to design interchanges and pedestrian links for every phase of development 在每阶段的发展，不要忘了设计交汇处和行人通道

Remember: in rapidly evolving cities, patterns are prone to change and subject to uncertainty

请记住：在迅速发展的城市，模式很容易受不确定的因素影响而改变


Inter-Modal Integration Check-List 综合运输检查清单

• How easy to change platforms? Ideally, cross-platform – try to avoid long walks

转月台有多容易? 理想:跨月台-避免远途

• Minimise vertical distances 垂直距离最小化

• How easy to interchange with bus or taxi? 转乘巴士或的士有多方便?

• How good are bus waiting areas? 巴士候车区有多好?


Inter-Modal Integration Check-List 综合运输检查清单

• How good are the buses? Comfort, frequency, routes, speed, interchange rebates? 公共汽车有多好?舒适、频率、路线、速度、转乘折扣?

• Pedestrian crossings (safety vs. too many steps) 行人过路处(安全与过多步伐)

Which of these can be realistically captured in transport models? 其中哪些可以实质地从运输模式找到呢?


Legacy Networks 传统网络

Cities may have bus networks tailored to how the cities used to be structured, not structured to today’s or tomorrow’s transport demands 城市的巴士网络可能是根据旧有的城市结构定制，而不是为今天或未来的交通需求而定制

Sometimes justified on “social need” – but this will not persuade car users out of their car

有些时候是以“社会需要”为道理 -但这不會说服汽车用户从他们的车走出來


Legacy Networks: Characteristics

传统网络:特色

• Existing routes amended slightly 稍微修订现有路线的

• Short-distance add-on routes 短距离附加路线

• Passengers have to make numerous interchanges 乘客可能要进行许多转乘

• Often, many small operators and/or government-controlled bureaucratic operators 往往是带有许多小型经营者和/或政府控制的官僚机构特色


Demand Risks 需求风险

Transport demand forecasts in general are beset with uncertainty, including: 运输需求预测一般是受不确定性困扰，包括:

•Economic growth 经济增长

•Population growth 人口增长

•Vehicle ownership 汽车拥有


Demand Risks 需求风险

Further risks include: 进一步的风险包括:

•Land use/ planning data (where things grow) 土地利用/规划数据(增长)

•Transport policy variables, including tolls and fares 多变的运输政策，包括收费及票价

•Timing of competing & feeder routes 时间竞争及接驳路线


Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives 不确定性与预测展望

• In rapidly developing cities all of these variables are inherently more uncertain 在快速发展的城市，这些可变因素更为不确定

• Robust data collection and modelling over decades is rare (Hong Kong and Singapore are exceptions) 罕有跨越数十年的健全数据采集和模型 (香港和新加坡是罕见的例外)

• Remember: transport models are tools to assist decision making, not substitutes for evaluation! 请记住：运输模型是协助决策的工具，不是评价替代品!


Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives 不确定性与预测展望

A wide range of scenarios should be evaluated: 一个广泛的方案，应就以下方面受评价:

•Land use, economic, population growth, etc 土地利用、经济、人口增长等

•Network configuration (affecting any studied route) 网络配置(考虑任何路线的影响)

•Transport policy options 交通政策选择

Both to aid in deciding on land use, network, policy and to evaluate demand envelope of projects

既要帮助决定土地使用、网络、政策和评估需求的项目


Spread of Probabilities 概率分布

• Central Case (for transport planning) 中央事例（交通运输规划）

• Low Case (for financing) – remember ramp up! 低事例（融资）-记住斜坡向上!

• High Case (for station design/ system sizing) 高事例（车站设计/系统规模）


2015 2020 2025 2030

Central Case

Low Case

Maximum LikelyDemand Model


中央事例

低事例

最大可能的需求模式

Demand Envelope 需求

Value-Capture Opportunities 价值获得机会

• Property development (Hong Kong model) 物业发展（香港模式）

• Shops in stations (but don’t congest stations) 车站商店（但不会使车站拥挤）

• Advertising, but perhaps not too much: 广告宣传，但不要太多:

– Livery adverts can interfere with branding 制服式的广告会干扰品牌

– Obtrusive advertising can be unpopular 突兀的广告可能不受欢迎

• Joint ticketing 联合售票


Transport Policy 交通政策 Long term: anything possible: But what is feasible? 长远而言，任何事情都可会发生: 但什么是可行？

Short term constraints: 短期而言是会有限制:

•Unpopularity of restraints (e.g. road pricing) 不受欢迎的限制 (如: 道路使用收費)

• Takes time to reform organisations, overcome resistance 公共机构改革和克服阻力需要时

•Land resumption/ compensation/ resettlement 收回土地/补偿/安置

Demand forecasts must reflect uncertainty and risk 需求预测必须反映出不确定性和风险


Concluding Comments: Institutions 总结:公共机构

Institutions should: 公共机构应：

•Share objectives 共享目标

•Collaborate, not compete 合作，而不是竞争

•Have the authority to perform their responsibilities 拥有权力去履行责任


Concluding Comments: Planning 总结:规划

Planning factors: 规划因素：

• Urban form & development density aligned with rapid transit 城市形态和发展密度与捷运一致

• Integration not competition between lines and modes 要融合而不是在路线和模式之间的竞争

• Remember pedestrians 记得道路使用者也是因素之一

• Design-in Transit Oriented Development (TOD) 公交导向发展设计


Concluding Comments: Demand Risks 总结:需求风险

• Are data available for robust forecasting (e.g. bus data to plan metro) 数据能否用于健全的预报(如:以巴士数据去规划地铁)

• Previous forecast performance of existing models 之前的预测与现有模型的表现


• Multiple forecast cases: financing (low); safe design (high) 多个预测事例：融资(低) ;安全设计(高)

• Economic and financial risks: 经济和金融风险：

– interest rates, construction, maintenance, power costs, opening delays 利率、建造、维修、电力成本、延迟开始时间

– Ramp-up following opening (revenue shortfall) 跟随开始使用上升(财政收入不足)



Also to be incorporated into forecasts/ models: 也应纳入预测/模型

•Institutional risks: 制度性风险：

– likelihood of bus restructuring & proper service integration 巴士的重组或服务之间适当整合的可能性的

– Changes in transport policy and enforcement thereof 运输政策的变化及其与执法

•Future build-out of city: 建设未来城市:

– How many “committed” or “proposed” developments will occur? 多少“承诺”或“建议”的发展将发生?

– what will their occupancy levels be? 他们的占用率会是怎样呢？



Remember, given the pace of growth in China and elsewhere in East Asia, there is high upside and downside risk in any forecasts

请记住，鉴于在中国和东亚其他地区的

增长步伐，任何的预测皆有高有利和不利的风险


Concluding Comments: Risks 总结:风险

Thank You 谢谢

Richard Di Bona 狄保华

Director, LLA Consultancy Ltd (Hong Kong) and Independent Consultant

董事, LLA顾问有限公司(香港)及独立顾问

[email protected]; [email protected]

+852-2831-9191; +86-21-3362-6611


mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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Institutional, Planning And Demand Risks For Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects