Japan as Forerunner of Emerging Issues What can Japan doplatinum.mri.co.jp/sites/default/files/101206_kdj.pdf · Saturation of artifacts is the key concept No. of automobiles （million）

Hiroshi KomiyamaChairman of the Institute,Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., Japan

President emeritus, University of Tokyo

6 December 2010

Japan as Forerunner of Emerging Issues～What can Japan do ?～

（ 108 ）

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

World population

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1900

億トン(108t)

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Crop production

米 Rice小麦 WheatトウモロコシCorn

(bill

ion

tonn

es,o

ileq

uiva

lent

)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000

2

4

6

1

3

5

87

109

20X

Energy consumption

Expansion in 20th century and the finite earth

3.5X 7.5X

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

at Law Dome, Antarcticaat Mauna Loa, Hawai i

Year

Atmospheric CO2

出所：「課題先進国日本」P59 出所：「課題先進国日本」P59

出所：「課題先進国日本」P61 出所：「課題先進国日本」P62

We need a concurrent approachto accelerate the process.

2050 will come soon.

2050 will be the crucial time ofthe human civilization, due to

the shrinking earth, aging societyand exploding knowledge .

Vision 2050

Improve energy efficiency by three times

Double the use of non-fossil energy

Establish recycling system of materials

to solve the crisis of global warming, environmentalIssues and natural resources depletion.

Vision 2050

Saturation of artifacts is the key concept

No. ofautomobiles

（million）

No. of automobiles perpopulation

Japan ５８０．４５

USA １３８０．４５

Britain ３１０．５１

France ３１０．５０

Germany ４１０．４９

China ３２０．０２

India １３０．０１

Source：Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association,Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications

Number of automobile ownership（2007）

Number of houses and households （8 million vacancy )

Source：1958～2008：Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications (MPHPT)2015～2030：National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Saturation of artifacts in Japan

Total houses (thousand)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030

total houses(thousands)households(thousands)

セメント生産量：国連統計年鑑人口：UNSD Demographic Statistics、

および国連統計年鑑より

Saturation will come in 2 ~ 10 years in China

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

人口

一人

当たりセメント生

産量

［ton

/人］

JapanChinaUSAFrance

Pro

duct

ion

ofC

emen

tper

pers

on[t

on]

Production of cement per person

Source：Production of Cement：UN Statistical year book

Population：UNSD Demographic Statistics

Year

人口一人当たり自動車販売台数の経年変化

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

JapanUSAFranceKorea Rep.China

Year

Automobiles in China will saturate within 5～10yearsSales per person

Aut

omob

iles

sale

spe

rpe

rson

YearAutomobile sales：automobile industry handbook (Japanese)“U.S. Automobile Production Figures” from Wikipedia etc.

Population：UNSD Demographic Statistics

Automobile energy consumption to 1/10 at 2050

Vehicle Weight [kg]Data Source: Yahoo! Japan Autos

Fue

lCon

sum

ptio

n[L

/km

]

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

US/European Cars

Japanese Cars

Hybrid Cars

Electric & Fuel cells Cars

Energy efficiency is secondly important!

1960 1970 1980 1990Year

USDenmarkBelgiumFranceSweden

Source: Japan Cement Association

Japan

Ener

gyCo

nsum

ptio

npe

rton

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

0

6,000(MJ/t)

theoretical value

Technology transfer can reduce emissionCement

Investment for energy efficiency can be refunded!

Energy efficiency improvement by 3 times is feasible.

Energy Scenario and CO2

a) 19906.0G C-ton

1.5G

b) 2050 BAU case

c) Vision 2050

d) After 22nd Century

1.5G

22.0G C-ton

3.0G

Fossil resources

Non- Fossil resources

Data: from “Vision 2050”

CO2 369 ppm

CO2 600 ppm

CO2 460 ppm

CO2 280 ppm

4.5G C-ton

22nd century will be bright!

0

5

10

15

20

1997 2050 1997 2050

Developed Countries Developing Countries

Em

issi

on

,G

C-t

on

fossil non-fossil

5.0

1.7 2.5

5.8

17.5

Growth is rights but Efficiency is duties !

Compiled data created by The University of Tokyo

Challenge２５ CampaignーTeam Ｋomiyama’s proposal－

Daily life １２％

Making things ３％

Nuclear energy etc. ５％

Forest etc. ５％

ＣＤＭ５％

Making thingsDaily life

Home

Transportation

Office

Ⓒ Hiroshi Komiyama

Energy consumption by final use in Japan

Theoretical limit of transportation is zero!

Energy consumption in houses and offices

エネルギー・経済統計要覧2009年版より

Air-conditioner28%

Water heating30%

others24%

kitchen8%

lighting10%

Offices50%: air-conditioner20%: lighting

Theoretical limit of air-conditioning is zero!

Houses

Water Heater

US (majority)

Tank storage 40%

5

Japan (majority)

Heat-to-use 80%

2.5

Heat-pump (ecocute)

50%×4=200%

1

Fuel cell (enefarm)36% elec. + 50% hot water

0

Technology innovation in Japan

Komiyama ecohouse: Yes, we can !

81% reductionInvestment refunded in 12 years

Solar panel : 3.6 ｋW

Heat-pump water heater

Insulation : K=1.6 W/m2K

New air-conditioner

Ⓒ 小宮山宏

Hybrid car：22.6km/l

New refrigerator & lightings

ENERGY 70%

MINERAL 70%

FOOD 70%

Self-Sufficiency in Japan at 2050


WATER 100%

Komiyama’s Proposal

Japanese goal as well as 21st model of humanity

Rates of water leak

Tokyo 3 ％Los Angeles 9 ％Moscow 10 ％Cairo 20 ％London 27 ％Bangkok 33 ％Mexico 35 ％

Technology to prevent water leak

30% of town water leaks in the world !

Filtration Membrane（RO/NF）Share of Japanese companies

Dow Chemical39.1%

日東電工／Hydranautics

27.0%

東レ 16.2%

東洋紡 5.3%

WoongjinChemical

3.5%

その他 9.0% （金額ベース 2008年度）

出所：（株）富士経済報告書「2009年版水資源関連市場の現状と将来展望」

Filtration membrane: Japanese companies account for 50% in the world.Preventing water leak: Japanese technology is the best in the world.

Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Source: Bureau of Waterworks Tokyo Metropolitan Government

present

東京屋形船案内http://www.t-yakata.com/tyh_dkship.htm

1967

環境省図で見る環境白書昭和５７年http://www.env.go.jp/policy/hakusyo/zu/eav11/eav110000000000.html

Japan’s experience with Sumida river

present1950’s

Japan’s experience with Yokkaichi

Ⓒ Yokkaichi City

http://www.city.yokkaichi.mie.jp/kankyo/kogai.htm

Japan’s experience with Kitakyusyu

Source：Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P27

Coexistence of Economy and Environment

Source: Nikkei Inc.Genkai nuclear power plant

Mt Fuji and Metropolis of Tokyo

25

東京電力ホームページより作成http://www.tepco.co.jp/csr/report/download/2006/015-j.pdf)http://www.tepco.co.jp/custom/LapLearn/mission/env_02-j.html)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

日本

カナダ

イタリア

フランス

ドイツ

イギリス

アメリカ

1999年

2002年

発電量当たりのSOx発生量 [g/kWh]

火力発電所からの硫黄酸化物排出原単位の国際比較

4.83.7

3.22.6

1.20.7

7.12.0

2.71.7

4.03.9

0.20.2

Emission of Sulfur from Thermal Power Plants

Data Source: Tokyo Electric Power Company, web-siteSOx (kg/kwh)

U.S.

U.K.

Germany

Italy

France

Canada

Japan

26

Paradigm in 21st century

20thCentury

Infinite earth

Shrinking earth

21stCentury

Aging society

•Climate change•Depleting resource•Pollution•Food, water

•Longevity•Small birth rate•Saturating demand•Pension•Medicine•Care•Work sharing•Barrier free …

•Financial crisis•Pandemic …

20001900

CO2

H2OChlorophyll

O2Sunlight

carbohydrateCO2

H2O

photosynthesis

Exploding knowledge

Source：Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P134

Age65～Age65～

Age15～64Age15～64

～age14～age14

Year2005 127millionYear2055 89million

National census 2005, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Shrinking earth

Aging society

Eco houseEco applianceEco carSolar panelWind mill

Barrier free buildingHealth monitoringSafe mobilitySenses supportingLife supporting

Green, silver & golden growth

Exploding knowledge

Structuring knowledgeStructured knowledge- baseEducationLifelong learningValue creation


female

Age

GraduateDecline(87.9%)

EarlyDecline(12.1%)

0

1

2

3

63-65 66-68 69-71 72-74 75-77 78-80 81-83 84-86 87-89

出典）Akiyama et al. (2008) アメリカ老年学会2008年年次大会

Patterns for Losing Functional Health－follow-up survey of 6000 aged peopleー

Self-Support

Death

29

Patterns for Losing Functional Health－follow-up survey of 6000 aged peopleー

male

age

Graduate Decline(70.1%)Early Decline

(19.0%)

Resilient (10.9%)

0

1

2

3

63-65 66-68 69-71 72-74 75-77 78-80 81-83 84-86 87-89

resilient(11%)

early decline(19%)

self-support

death

出典）Akiyama et al. (2008) アメリカ老年学会2008年年次大会

gradual decline(70%)

Change of Cognitive Ability

AGE

40

45

50

55

20 30 40 50 60 70

Ability of daily problem-solvingLanguage ability (vocabulary)Ability of short-term memory

Source）Cornelius and Caspi(1987, p150)

Performancescore

Participation in the society with pride is the key.

Devices supporting weakened abilities have to be developed.

Infrastructure for encouraging participation is needed.

Successful Aged Society

Japan is the closest country to the success!

ecological

participated by all including seniors

lifelong growing

abundant in job opportunities

sustainable society shining brightly

created by green, silver, gold andvarious innovations

Platinum society is a vision of 21st century

Layered Structure of Platinum Network


Network of Cities

Network of Universities

AomoriPref.,Aomori

North Japan New EnergyResearch Center, HirosakiUniv.

Kashiwa Campus,Tokyo Univ.

Kita Kyushu

Kashiwa

Network of Sister-Cities

LCS

ICAS, IbaragiUniv.

AkitaPref.

Yokohama

FukuokaPref.

Ibaragi Pref.

MiyagiPref.

WakayamaPref.

Edogawa

Asia LowCarbon Center

FDC FCSSC

Platinum society

study group, MRI

Akita prefecturaluniv.

Platinum Network As of 2010,12/3

Mayor joinsGovernor joins

Tokyowards

Join in the quest for a platinum society


Thank you

Foreign countries will join us!

Documents

Japan as Forerunner of Emerging Issues What can Japan doplatinum.mri.co.jp/sites/default/files/101206_kdj.pdf · Saturation of artifacts is the key concept No. of automobiles （million）