CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLANNING:

A UTILITY PERSPECTIVE

January 21, 2015 Watershed Summit

Laurna Kaatz - Climate Scientist, Denver Water

Grand Junction

Aspen

Arkansas River

South Platte River.

Yampa River

Rio Grande

Gunnison River

Colorado River

Continental Divide

South PlatteWatershed

Colorado River Watersheds

Continental Divide

Denver

Transbasin Diversions

2 2

1 ° 2 ° 3 ° 4 ° 5 ° 6 ° 7 ° 8 ° 9 ° 10 °-20 %

-10 %

%

10 %

20 %

30 %

20402070

Temperature Change (Fahrenheit)

Pre

cip

itati

on

Ch

an

ge (

%)

0

3

Projected Changes for North Central Colorado

Climate Adaptation Challenges

• What information should we use?

• How do we use it?

– Conversion tools

– Simple vs sophisticated

– Probabilities or scenarios

– What do we plan for

– Trade-offs

• New science

• Messaging

Denver Water’s Simple Assessments

6

2° F 5° FColorado South

PlatteColorado South

PlatteAdditional precipitation needed to offset warming

5% 5% 8% 12%

5° F% Change

Yield -22%Demand 7%

Water Planning Challenges

7

Colorado River Compact Call

Population Growth

Endangered Species

Climate Change

Drought

Water Quality

Scenario Planning

8

2050

B

DecisionPoints

2010

C

Near-term strategy A

DE

The Cone of Uncertainty

Planning Futures

• Traditional future - The future is extrapolated from past trends.

• Water quality rules - Contaminant removal and other drinking water requirements are extremely stringent.

• Hot water - A warmer climate accompanied by more frequent and more severe droughts.

• Economic woes - An ongoing energy crisis and deep economic downturn.

• Green revolution - Environmental values and sustainable living become dominant social norms.

Planning Futures

Wat

er D

eman

d Supply Gap in 2050

Gap Existing Supply

Conclusions

• Increase system reliability, diversity and flexibility

• Plan for multiple futures

• Identify and preserve options

11

Four Adaptation Steps

• Understand climate science and model projections capabilities and limitations

• Assess water system vulnerabilities to potential change

• Plan to incorporate climate change uncertainty into water utility planning

• Implement adaptation strategies

Resources at wucaonline.orgUnderstanding Planning

“All I’m saying is now is the time to develop a plan to deflect an asteroid.”

Extra Slides

Water Utility Climate AllianceSeattle

Public Utilities (Chair)

San Francisco Public Utilities

Commission

Metropolitan Water District

of So. CaliforniaSan Diego

County Water Authority

Southern NevadaWater Authority

Denver Water

Portland Water Bureau

Tampa Bay Water (Vice Chair)

Central Arizona Project

The Water Utility Climate Alliances provides leadership in assessing and adapting to the potential effects of climate change through collaborative action. We seek to enhance the usefulness of climate science for the adaptation

community and improve water management decision-making in the face of climate uncertainty.

New York Department of Environmental Protection