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KHNG HONG TI CHNH 2007

Hong Cng Gia Khnh

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Ti sc v s v ca th trng tn dng. Khng

hong hin nay ca th trng ti chnh l cn sng

thn ca th k v s nh hng nghim trng n nn kinh t. Khng hong

vt qu sc tng tng ca ti

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1. Vn tt v din bin cuc khng hong di gc ca cc trung gian ti chnh

Ti sn Ngun vn Ti sn di hn - Cho vay th chp - Cho cty vay - Nm gi ABS - .

Vn ch s hu

N di hn

N ngn hn - Thng phiu - Repo

t

R 10

nm 3

thng FED duy tr FFR thp

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Ti sn Ngun vn Ti sn di hn - Cho vay th chp - Cho cty vay - Nm gi ABS - .

Vn ch s hu

N di hn

N ngn hn - Thng phiu - Repo

t

Khng th vay c

Thanh khon km

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Chng khon ha (Securitization) Chng khon th chp bt ng sn (Mortgage-

backed Securities MBS)

Chng khon c m bo bng ti sn (Asset-backed Securities ABS)

Thng phiu th chp bng ti sn (Asset-backed Commercial Paper ABCP)

Ngha v n c bo m bng th chp (Collateralized debt obligations CDO)

Hp ng hon i v n tn dng (Credit Default Swaps CDSs)

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Cc i tng lin quan n MBS

Originator Ch n u tin. H bn mn n cho SPV

Special Purpose Vehicle

Obligors Khch hng vay mua nh

Thanh ton tin cho cc ch n

SPV Thc hin cc giao dch t bit.

Mua cc ti sn t cc ch n u tin Originator: Company/Trust/ Mutual Fund

Investors Ngi mua chng khon

Do SPV pht hnh

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Collection Agent

Thu tin t ngi i vay Gim st v theo di ti sn.

Credit Enhancement

Provider

Cung cp cc khon tng cng tn dng bng cc nghip v of swaps, hedges,

guarantees, insurance etc.

Merchant Banker

Ngn hng bn bun, cung cp cc dch v nh NHTM, v tn dng, u t, t vn,

dn xp qu trnh chng khon ha

Credit Rating Agency

Cc t chc xp hng tn dng Cung cc cc xp hng v ngi vay

v cc bn lin quan

Cc i tng lin quan n MBS

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S tng th

SPV Investors

Originator

Obligors

Credit Enhancement

Providers

Rating Agency

Structurer

9 Issue of securities

Rating 8 Subscription to securities

Cash flows 10 11 Servicing

of securities

Contracts Ongoing cash flows Initial cash flows

Collection Agent

Arranger

Original Loan 1

Collections 2 Credit enhancement 3

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5

Sale of asset 6

Purchase consideration

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1.V n

2.Gian ln, thiu trch nhim

3. La chn

nghch

4.Ri ro o c

5.Ri ro o c

6. Vn ngi i

din 7. Li m

hnh

7 nguy c trong chng khon ha tn dng di chun

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2. Kinh nghim t hot ng can thip ca Fed 2.1. Can thip bng cc cng c truyn thng

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2. S can thip ca Fed Din gii OMO DW TAF TSLF PDCF AMLF CPFF MMIFF TALF

Ngy cng b - - 17.08.07 11.03.08 16.03.08 19.09.08 07.10.08 21.10.08 25.11.08

Ngy kt thc - - - 30.04.09 30.04.09 30.04.09 - - -

i tng tham gia

TCTC ln,

TCNTG

TCNTG TCTC ln,

TCNTG

TCTC ln

TCTC ln

TCNTG,T NH

Cc TC PH CP

MMMF Cng dn HK

Tc ng n d tr

C C

C

Khng C

C

C

C

C

Thi hn vay Qua m-14

ngy

n 90 ngy

28 hoc 84 ngy

28 hoc 84 ngy

Qua m

Max 270 ngy

3 thng - t nht 1 nm (3 nm)*

Tn xut giao dch

Hng ngy

Bt c lc no

Mi hai tun

Hng tun

Bt c lc no

Bt c lc no

Bt c lc no

Bt c lc no

Hng thng

c hon tr trc hn

Khng c Khng Khng - Khng - - c

Loi GTCG s dng

C ngun gc t TPCP

C ngun gc t TPCP

C ngun gc t TPCP

MBS MBS ABCP loi 1

ABCP v CP mi pht hnh

GTCG ngn

hn, CP

ABS

C quan ph trch ca Fed

FRBNY Tt c Tt c FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY

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2. S can thip ca Fed 2.2. Cc cng c mi

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2. S can thip ca Fed 2.2. Cc cng c mi

Din gii OMO DW TAF TSLF PDCF AMLF CPFF MMIFF TALF Ngy cng b - - 17.08.07 11.03.08 16.03.08 19.09.08 07.10.08 21.10.08 25.11.08

Ngy kt thc - - - 30.04.09 30.04.09 30.04.09 - - -

i tng tham gia

TCTC ln,

TCNTG

TCNTG TCTC ln,

TCNTG

TCTC ln

TCTC ln

TCNTG,T NH

Cc TC PH CP

MMMF Cng dn HK

Tc ng n d tr

C C

C

Khng C

C

C

C

C

Thi hn vay Qua m-14

ngy

n 90 ngy

28 hoc 84 ngy

28 hoc 84 ngy

Qua m

Max 270 ngy

3 thng - t nht 1 nm (3 nm)*

Tn xut giao dch

Hng ngy

Bt c lc no

Mi hai tun

Hng tun

Bt c lc no

Bt c lc no

Bt c lc no

Bt c lc no

Hng thng

c hon tr trc hn

Khng c Khng Khng - Khng - - c

Loi GTCG s dng

C ngun gc t TPCP

C ngun gc t TPCP

C ngun gc t TPCP

MBS MBS ABCP loi 1

ABCP v CP mi pht hnh

GTCG ngn

hn, CP

ABS

C quan ph trch ca Fed

FRBNY Tt c Tt c FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY

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2. S can thip ca Fed Tng hp cc chng trnh gii cu ca Fed tnh n 27/11/08 (vt: T USD)

TT Tn cng c / ti sn Ngy cng b Tng quy m s dng 1 TAF 12/12/2007 900 415,3 2 TSLF 11/03/2008 205 191,3 3 H tr cho J.P Morgans mua

li Bear Stearns 14/03/2008 28,8 26,9

4 PDCF 16/03/2008 50,2 50,2 5 AMLF 19/09/2008 69,8 69,8 6 CPFF 07/10/2008 1.800 265,7 7 MMIFF 21/10/2008 600 n.a 8 TALF 25/11/2008 200 0 9 Mua cc tri phiu c pht

hnh bi GSEs v MBS c GSEs bo m

25/11/2008 600 0

10 DW - 91,7 91,7 11 H tr cho AIG 122,8 t USD

v Citigroup 326 t USD - 448,8 448,8

12 Cc chng trnh khc - 620,6 620,6 Tng cng - 5.614,9 2.180,3

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2. S can thip ca Fed Bin ng ti sn ca Fed

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2. S can thip ca Fed 2.2. Fed cu cu B Ti chnh

Chng trnh ti tr b sung (Supplementary Financing Program SFP)

M t hnh ng H thng ngn hng Fed B Ti chnh

Ti sn N Ti sn N Ti sn N

1. Fed cho vay t TAF ...

+100 N t TAF

+100 Cho vay t TAF

2. ...lm gia tng d tr

+100 D tr

+100 D tr

3. BTC bn tn phiu ra dn chng ...

+100 Tn phiu

+100 Tn phiu

4. ... lm gim d tr vt mc

-100 D tr

-100 Tin mt (ca BTC)

-100 D tr

+100 Tin mt

5. BTC gi tin mt vo Fed

+100 Tin mt (ca BTC)

-100 Tin mt

6. ...Gia tng tin gi ti Fed

+100 Tin gi ca BTC

+100 Tin gi ti Fed

Tc ng rng + 100 +100 +100 +100 +100 +100

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Kt qu t cc chng trnh gii cu

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Kt qu t cc chng trnh gii cu

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Kt qu t cc chng trnh gii cu

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2. S can thip ca Fed 2.2. Cc cng c mi Din gii OMO DW TAF TSLF PDCF AMLF CPFF MMIFF TALF

Ngy cng b - - 17.08.07 11.03.08 16.03.08 19.09.08 07.10.08 21.10.08 25.11.08

Ngy kt thc - - - 30.04.09 30.04.09 30.04.09 - - -

i tng tham gia

TCTC ln,

TCNTG

TCNTG TCTC ln,

TCNTG

TCTC ln

TCTC ln

TCNTG,T NH

Cc TC PH CP

MMMF Cng dn HK

Tc ng n d tr

C C

C

Khng C

C

C

C

C

Thi hn vay Qua m-14

ngy

n 90 ngy

28 hoc 84 ngy

28 hoc 84 ngy

Qua m

Max 270 ngy

3 thng - t nht 1 nm (3 nm)*

Tn xut giao dch

Hng ngy

Bt c lc no

Mi hai tun

Hng tun

Bt c lc no

Bt c lc no

Bt c lc no

Bt c lc no

Hng thng

c hon tr trc hn

Khng c Khng Khng - Khng - - c

Loi GTCG s dng

C ngun gc t TPCP

C ngun gc t TPCP

C ngun gc t TPCP

MBS MBS ABCP loi 1

ABCP v CP mi pht hnh

GTCG ngn

hn, CP

ABS

C quan ph trch ca Fed

FRBNY Tt c Tt c FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY FRBNY

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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam

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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam

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Nguyn nhn ca cuc ua li sut Vit nam

Ti sn Ngun vn Ti sn di hn - Cho vay mua BS - Cho vay mua CK - Cho cty vay -.

Vn ch s hu

N di hn

N ngn hn - Tin gi - Vay lin ngn hng

Kh tng

nhanh

Tng trng nhanh

1-5 nm

Qua m -

30 ngy

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Nguyn nhn ca cuc ua li sut Vit nam

Ti sn Ngun vn Ti sn di hn - Cho vay mua BS - Cho vay mua CK - Cho cty vay -.

Vn ch s hu

N di hn

N ngn hn - Tin gi - Vay lin ngn hng

NHNN tht cht

tin t => cng thng trn

TTLNH => tng li sut tin gi

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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam

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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam Kh nng vn dng cc cng c nh ca Fed: Cng c u thu cho vay k hn (TAF) Cng c cho vay chng khon k hn (TSLF) Cng c tn dng cho cc trung gian ti chnh hng u (PDCF) Cng c thanh khon cho qu th trng tin t thng qua vic cho vay da trn thng phiu bo m bng ti sn (AMLF)

Cng c qu thng phiu (CPFF) Cng c qu dnh cho cc nh u t trn th trng tin t (MMIFF) Cng c cho vay da trn chng khon m bo bng ti sn (TALF)

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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam D tr bt buc: Hn ch thay i lin tc Li sut chit khu: Phi hp cht nghip v th trng m

o Sn: Li sut chit khu; o Trn: Li sut ti cp vn o Ngng s dng cng c hnh chnh li sut c bn,

t do ha li sut.

Nghip v th trng m: o D bo vn kh dng; o Duy tr t l nm gi GTCG ca cc TCTD o Can thip mnh khi cn thit.

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3. Nhng gi cho Vit nam T gi hi oi:

o Trnh gy sc hoc km t gi thi qu; o Kim sot cht hot ng thu i ngoi t; o Kim sot gm ngoi t, lm gi ca TCTD; o Thng nht u mi qun l ngun ngoi t o D bo cn cn thanh ton quc t.

H thng gim st ri ro

Minh bch thng tin o Cng b lch trnh lm vic ca HTVCSTT; o Minh bch ha tin trnh pht tn hiu o Cng khai ha s liu hot ng ngn hng.

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Xin cm n Qu v !