1. 2007-05 :

2. 1960 1997 . . 10 . . 7~8% 2/3 4% . . . , ? ? ? ? ? , .1990 . 2 1980 3. . , . . 1990 ? , ? ? , . . 1990 . . . 6 . 1 , 8 . 6 .2 3 , 4 5 . 6 , 7 4. . KDI , . . . . . . . , , . . KDI .2007 12 5. 11 13( )1 132 182 23()1 232 271. 272. 333. 1 GDP 374. : , , 395. 413 411. 422. : 473. 57 6. 4. 625. 693 1990 : 77( )1 772 : 781. : 792. 813 821. 842. 854 1031. 1032. (IR) (FEVD) 1065 1424 147()1 1472 1521. 1522. 1553. 156 7. 4. 1593 1631. (19932003) 1642. 1674 1711. 3 1712. 1733. (FDI) 1785 1825 195( )1 1952 1981. 1982. 2013 I: 2031. 2032. 2073. 2174 II: 2181. 2182. 2213. 2295 231 8. 6 1990 243( )1 2432 2471. 2482. 2493 2521. 9 2522. 10 2584 2631. 2632. 2633. 2645 2677 273( )1 2732 2761. 2762. 2833 2851. 2862. 3033. 314 9. 4. 3164 3258 339( ) 10. < 2- 1> (1981~2005) 34< 2- 2> ( ) 37< 2- 3> 1 GDP 38< 2- 4> (, , ) 40< 2- 5> (1961~2006) 43< 2- 6> 45< 2- 7> (1961~2004 ) 48< 2- 8> ( ) 55< 2- 9> 83 57< 2-10> GDP () 59< 2-11> () 61< 2-12> () 63< 2-13> 66< 2-14> 67< 2-15> 68< 3- 1> GDP (: 1971 1/4~2007 2/4) 79< 3- 2> (DF-GLS) 104< 3- 3> B-Q 105< 3- 4> S-W 105< 4- 1> GDP 153< 4- 2> : (1993~2003) 160< 4- 3> 161 11. < 4- 4> : (1993~2003) 165< 4- 5> : (1993~2003) 166< 4- 6> : (1993~97) (1999~2003) 168< 4- 7> : (1993~97) (1999~2003) 169< 4- 8> : (1993~97) (1999~2003) 172< 4- 9> : (1993~97) (1999~2003) 174< 4-10> : (1993~97) (1999~2003) 176< 4-11> : (1993~97) (1999~2003) 177< 4-12> FDI: (1993~97) (1999~2003) 180< 4-13> FDI: (1993~97) (1999~2003) 181< 4A-1> UN BEC -- 187< 4A-2> : subsample 192< 4A-3> : subsample 193< 5- 1> () 209< 5- 2> ( ) 211< 5- 3> : vs 213< 5- 4> : vs 214< 5- 5> 216< 5- 6> 217 12. < 5- 7> ( ) 222< 5- 8> ( ) 223< 5- 9> : vs 225< 5-10> : vs 226< 5-11> 227< 5-12> 228< 5-13> (2 ) 230< 5-14> (2 ) 230< 5-15> ( , 2004) 234< 6- 1> ( 9 ) 256< 6- 2> ( 10 ) 261< 6- 3> : TFP ( ) 265< 6- 4> : TFP ( ) 266< 7- 1> 290< 7- 2> 307< 7- 3> () 319< 7- 4> () 321< 7- 5> () 323< 7- 6> () 324 13. [ 2- 1] 24[ 2- 2] 24[ 2- 3] 24[ 2- 4] 25[ 2- 5] 25[ 2- 6] 25[ 2- 7] 33[ 2- 8] 34[ 2- 9] 37[ 2-10] (1961~2006) 44[ 2-11] , 1961~2004(, %) 50[ 3- 1] GDP GDP 80[ 3- 2] B-Q 2 (1970 1/4~2007 2/4) 107[ 3- 3] B-Q 2 (1970. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 108[ 3- 4] B-Q 2 (1970. 1/4~1979. 4/4) 109[ 3- 5] B-Q 2 (1970 1/4~1979 4/4) 109[ 3- 6] B-Q 2 (1980. 1/4~1989. 4/4) 110[ 3- 7] B-Q 2 (1980. 1/4~1989. 4/4) 110[ 3- 8] B-Q 2 (1990. 1/4~1999. 4/4) 111[ 3- 9] B-Q 2 (1990. 1/4~1999. 4/4) 111[ 3-10] B-Q 2 (2001. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 112[ 3-11] B-Q 2 (2001. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 113[ 3-12] () (1970. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 115[ 3-13] () (1970. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 116[ 3-14] () (1970. 1/4~1979. 1/4) 117 14. [ 3-15] () (1970. 1/4~1979. 1/4) 118[ 3-16] () (1980. 1/4~1989. 1/4) 119[ 3-17] () (1980. 1/4~1989. 1/4) 120[ 3-18] () (1990. 1/4~1999. 1/4) 121[ 3-19] () (1990. 1/4~1999. 1/4) 122[ 3-20] () (2000. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 124[ 3-21] () (2000. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 125[ 3-22] () (1970. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 126[ 3-23] () (1970. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 127[ 3-24] () (1970. 1/4~1979. 1/4) 128[ 3-25] () (1970. 1/4~1979. 1/4) 129[ 3-26] () (1980. 1/4~1989. 1/4) 130[ 3-27] () (1980. 1/4~1989. 1/4) 131[ 3-28] () (1990. 1/4~1999. 1/4) 132[ 3-29] () (1990. 1/4~1999. 1/4) 133[ 3-30] () (2000. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 134[ 3-31] () (2000. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 135[ 3-32] (2000. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 138 15. [ 3-33] (2000. 1/4~2007. 2/4) 139[ 3-34] (1991. 1/4~1997. 3/4) 140[ 3-35] (1991. 1/4~1997. 3/4) 141[ 4- 1] GDP 153[ 4- 2] 154[ 4- 3] 162[ 4- 4] 178[ 4A-1] 188[ 4A-2] 188[ 4A-3] 3 189[ 4A-4] 3 189[ 4A-5] 190[ 4A-6] 190[ 4A-7] 191[ 4A-8] 191[ 4A-9] (3)(Da(XCAP_CH)) Partial Residual Plot 194[ 4A-10] (4)(Da(XCAP_CH)) Partial Residual Plot 194[ 5- 1] GDP, (1980=1) 196[ 5- 2] 208[ 5- 3] GDP 208[ 5- 4] () 215[ 5- 5] GDP ( ) 233[ 6- 1] ( = 1.00) 253[ 6- 2] ( = 1.00) 259[ 7- 1] 277 16. [ 7- 2] 279[ 7- 3] - 281[ 7- 4] 282[ 7- 5] (1,000) 284[ 7- 6] 287[ 7- 7] 289[ 7- 8] (Cohort Effects) 291[ 7- 9] (Cohort Effects) 291[ 7-10] - (1978~2003) 294[ 7-11] 295[ 7-12] 297[ 7-13] 299[ 7-14] / 301[ 7-15] ( = 0) 308[ 7-16] 309[ 7-17] 310[ 7-18] (average quality) 313[ 7A-1] 332[ 7A-2] 335 17. 1. 10 . ? ? (sustained growth) ? . . 1990 , . . . . 18. 2 : . . 1990 . . , , , . ? (nature) ? , ? . (innovation) . . . ? ? . (sustained growth) (catch-up) 19. 3 . . . .2. 6 . ,4 5 , . . (proximate cause) , . . , . . . , , 20. 4 : . . 1960 , 1990 . , GDP . 2000 , . . 1990 . , . , . 1990 . . . 21. 51990 : 1990 ? . . (Structural VectorAuto Regression: SVAR) . Blanchard and Quah(1989) SVAR . B-Q(1989) 2- 3- , Stockand Watson(2002) . ., , 2000 . 2000 ., 2000 . 2000 , , . . , 2000 . 1990 22. 6 : . . ? . . . , 3 . . , , . (fragmentation of production) . , . . . , , . 23. 7 . . . , . , 3 . , . , . , . , 1% 0.04% . 1% , 0.02% 0.03% . , 1 , 0.3, 2.4 2.8 . , 24. 8 : , . . , , (China effect) . . . , , , . 1990 1997 1990 . 4 . , , , 1990 . 1990 ? 4 1990 25. 9. 4 1990 OECD (technology frontier) , 1990 . . 9 , 10 , 1990 , . , 1990 . (R&D) . . R&D . (labor quality) . , , , , . 2004 2 4 26. 10 : 80% , 100% , . , . . (cohort) , . , . , . , , , , . , , , . , .3. .1) , 27. 11 . . . , . ., , . , , , . . , .1) . . 28. (KDI )1 1960 , . .1) 10 . ? ? (sustained growth) ? . . 1990 1) World Bank 2005 Economic Growth in the1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform . 29. 14 : , . , . , . . 1970 1997 25 8% , 200106 4.5% . (growth slowdown) . . . . , .2) ? , ? 2) (2004), Hahn and Shin(2007), Pyo(2007) (2006) . 30. 1 15(convergence effect), ? . . 1990 .3) 1978 30 10% . 6, 3 . 1 . ,4) (fragmentation) .5) (sophisticated) ,6) .7) .3) World Bank 2006 An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for EconomicGrowth, Freeman(2005) .4) Rodrik(2005) .5) Feenstra(1998) , (outsourcing) (fragmentation of production) .6) Rodrik(2006) .7) Lall and Albaladejo(2004) . 31. 16 : . , , , . ? (nature) ? , ? . (innovation) .8) .9) .10) , 8) , , . .9) . Easterly et al.(1993), Klenow and Rodriguez-Clare(1997), Prescott(1998), Halland Jones(1999), Rodrik(1999), Hayashi and Prescott(2002) .10) Lucas(1988) . Benhabib and Spiegel(2005) . 32. 1 17 , . , ? , ? ? . (sustained growth) (catch-up) . (sustaining) (igniting) .11) , 1950 .12) 80 90 , . . , . . 11) Rodrik(2005), World Bank(2005) .12) Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik(2004). 33. 18 : .13) ? . .2 6 . ,4 5 , . 2 , . , , .3 1990 : (structural VAR) 1990 . .4 13) World Bank(1993), Rodrik(2005) . 34. 1 19 , . . 5 , , . .6 1990 OECD , . (gap) (fact) . , . . 35. 20 : , : , , 10 3, 2004, pp.148. , , 2006-07.Benhabib, Jess and Mark M. Spiegel. Human Capital and Technology Diffusion, inAghion, Philippe and Steven N. Durlauf (eds.), Handbook of EconomicGrowth, 2005. pp.935~966.Easterly, William, Michael Kremer, Lant Pritchett, and Larry Summers, Good Policyor Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks,Journal of Monetary Economics 32, 1993. pp.459~483.Feenstra, Robert. C. Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in theGlobal Economy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall 1998. pp.31~50.Freeman, Richard. Labor Goes Global: The Effects of Globalization on WorkersAround the World, transcript of the 2004 Eighth Annual Rocco C. andMarion S. Siciliano Forum: Considerations on the Status of the AmericanSociety. Monograph. 2005.Hahn, Chin Hee and Sukha Shin. Empirical Assessment of the Post-Crisis GrowthPerformance of the Korean Economy, paper presented at KDI-EWCConference on Reforms for Koreas Sustained Growth, held in Honolulu,Hawaii in July 2007.Hall, Robert and Charles I. Jones. Why Do Some Countries Produce so much moreOutput than Others? Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.CXIV. 1999.pp.83~116.Hausmann, Ricardo, Lant Pritchett, and Dani Rodrik. Growth Accelerations NBERWorking Paper No.10566. 2004.Hayashi, Fumio and Edward C. Prescott. The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade,Review of Economic Dynamics 5. 2002. pp.205~235.Klenow, Peter J. and Andres Rodriguez-Clare. The Neoclassical Revival in GrowthEconomics: Has It Gone Too Far? 1997 NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 36. 1 211997.Lall, Sanjaya and Manuel Albaladejo, Chinas Competitive Performance: A Threatto East Asian Manufactured Exports? World Development, Vol.32, No. 9,2004, pp.1441~1466.Lucas, Robert E. Jr. On the Mechanics of Economic Development, Journal ofMonetary Economics 22. 1988. pp.3~42.Prescott, Edward C. Needed: A Theory of Total Factor Productivity, InternationalEconomic Review, Vol.39. No. 3. 1998. pp.525~551.Pyo, Hak K. Productivity Growth and Structural Changes in Korean Economybefore and after the Financial Crisis, paper presented at IMF-KIEPConference on Ten Years after the Korean Crisis, held in Seoul, Korea inSeptember 2007.Rodrik, Dani. Whats so special about Chinas exports?, NBER Working Paper11947, Cambridge MA: NBER, 2006.Rodrik, Dani. Growth Strategies, in Aghion, Philippe and Steven N. Durlauf (eds.),Handbook of Economic Growth, 2005. pp.967~1016.Rodrik, Dani. Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, andGrowth Collapses, Journal of Economic Growth 4. 1999. pp.385~412.World Bank. An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, The WorldBank, Washington, D.C., 2006.World Bank. Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform,The World Bank, Washington D.C., 2005.World Bank. East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy, New York:Oxford University Press, 1993. 37. (KDI ) (KDI )1 1997 , . . GDP 1991~95 7.5% , 2001~05 4.4%( 2-1). ( 2-1). .( 2-3).1) . , 1) GDP 1984 61% , 1%p 3.5% . ( 2-5 2-6 ). 38. 24 : [ 2-1] -9-416111980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004(% ): .[ 2-2] 253035401980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004(% ): .[ 2-3] -30-25-20-15-10-505101520251980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004(%): . 39. 2 25[ 2-4] 5560651980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004(% ): ().[ 2-5] 0123456789101980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004(% ): ().[ 2-6] 2002202401980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004( ): .: (). 40. 26 : . . . . , . . . , . , . , M&A . ? (proximate cause) ? (TFP) , ? ? ? ? . Young(1995) Hsieh(2002) . Bosworth and Collins(2003) , 41. 2 27 . . 1990 . (high-tech) (Freeman[2006], Kim et al.[2006]). , . . KSIC 3 . . . 3 . 4 . .2 1. , . . 42. 28 : Young(1995) , Hsieh(2002) .. - 2). (1) , , , , . . (1) . (2) ., (1) . (3) . (3) 2) Christensen, Jorgenson, and Lau(1971) . Barro(1999) (discrete) . Diewert(1976) . , , - . , (3) . 43. 2 29 . . , . , () () . (, ). . (4) , () () (, ). . (5). . , . (6) , . (6) , . (7) . (7) . (8) 44. 30 : (8) (primalestimate of TFP) , (dual estimate of TFP) . , . . (9). , , , , , . , . , Young(1995) . Young(1995) 5 . (10) 5 , . 1953 1980 , . BEA(Bureau of Economic Analysis) . 45. 2 31 6 .3) (), (1524, 2534, 3544, 4554, 5564), ( , , ) 30 . , , . , . , 4). , (1998) 0.646 , 0.354 . . Young(1995) () . (11) , . , (11) 3) Hulten and Wykoff(1981) (2003) , Hulten and Wykoff(1981) BEA (2003) . (2003) .4) Young(1995) (iterative proportion fitting method). Young(1995) . , , . , 1987 . 46. 32 : . , () 0.354 .5) , . (11) , () ( 2-7 ). Hsieh(2002) 196690 , , . , 1991 . 1990 , , , . .6) . , . 1980 1970 , 5) , (11) .6) (1998). 47. 2 33[ 2-7] 01020304050601960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 (%): Collins and Park, - (), 1989. . ( ) ( 2-8 ). Hsieh(2002) , .7)2. . 19802005 < 2-1> .8) 7) , ( ) . 48. 34 : GDP () () () ()TFP()TFP()198185 7.5 9.8 9.5 0.7 2.7 3.7 2.5198690 9.2 11.3 12.3 2.3 4.0 3.8 2.3199195 7.5 11.4 11.6 2.5 4.2 1.9 0.819962000 4.3 6.9 6.6 0.1 1.6 1.8 1.0200105 4.5 5.0 4.7 0.0 1.3 2.8 2.0[ 2-8] -5051015201976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003(%): = - .< 2-1> (1981~2005)(: , %) Young(1995) . , 198185 198690 4.8% 6.8% , Young(1995)8) Young(1995) GDP GDP GDP . Young(1995) 1980 GDP , GDP 1.01.5%p . 2000 . 49. 2 35 4.7% 7.2% . , Young(1995) , 1993 2000 , Young(1995) 1968 1985 . . , 199195 11.6% 200105 4.7% , 199195 4.2% 200105 1.3% 9). , . , 198695 2% , 1995 . , 199195 1.7% 200105 1.3% . . 199195 0.8% 200105 2.0% . 196190 1.5% , . . (2006) 9) , . 6% 199195 11.1% 200105 0.8% . 2003 2004 , 200105 . 50. 36 : , .10) (2006) 199195 2.2% 200105 0.5% , 199195 11.5% , 199620008.2%, 200105 5.5% .. , < 2-2> . , 1980 . 198690 , 3 . , . [ 2-9] . . 200105 1.3% 199195 0.8% . , 19962000 199195 , 19962000 199195 .10) (2006) , . 4% Nehru and Dhareshwar(1993) . 51. 2 37 GDP ( ) ( )TFP() TFP()198185 7.5 9.5 2.7 2.5 0.9 3.2 2.4198690 9.2 12.3 4.0 2.3 -4.3 4.6 1.5199195 7.5 11.6 4.2 0.8 -2.8 2.6 0.819962000 4.3 6.6 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.2200105 4.5 4.7 1.3 2.0 -2.9 3.5 1.3< 2-2> ( )(: , %)[ 2-9] -2-10123481-85 86-90 91-95 96-00 01-05Primal TFP Dual TFP(%)3. 1 GDP < 2-3> GDP 1 GDP 1GDP . 199195 0.5% . 1 GDP 1 , , , , , .11) 52. 38 : 1GDPGDP1TFP//198185 6.0 2.9 -0.1 1.2 2.5 -1.6 1.1 1.5 7.5198690 7.8 3.1 -0.4 0.9 2.3 1.2 0.8 1.4 9.2199195 7.0 3.1 0.1 1.0 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 7.519962000 3.6 2.1 -0.1 0.8 1.0 -0.6 0.5 0.7 4.3200105 4.0 1.3 -0.4 0.7 2.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 4.5< 2-3> 1 GDP (: %, %p) (12) j 1 , , , , . 199195 200105 1 GDP 3%p , 1 1 GDP . , , 1 GDP -0.5%p ,11) , . 53. 2 39 1 1 GDP 1.8%p 1.5%p . , .12)4. : , , , , < 2-4> .13) , . 199195 7.9% 200105 6.4% , 199195 7.4% 200105 3.8% .14) , . 199195 12.5% 200105 5.4% , 9.9% 5.7% .15) 12) , 2010 . 1 GDP . (2007) .13) , , .14) 1990 2000 , 1980 2000 . 1980 3 . .15) , . , 54. 40 : < 2-4> (, , )(: , %) GDP () () () ()TFP()TFP()198185 10.6 9.0 NA 1.6 3.5 6.4 5.1198690 11.9 15.6 NA 5.8 7.7 2.7 1.5199195 7.9 9.9 NA -0.5 1.3 4.8 3.719962000 7.6 6.6 NA -1.9 -0.7 6.6 5.8200105 6.4 5.7 NA -1.4 -0.2 5.4 4.6198185 6.7 10.2 NA 3.3 4.3 1.0 0.4198690 8.5 10.6 NA 4.7 5.7 1.8 1.1199195 7.4 12.5 NA 6.4 7.1 -1.2 -1.619962000 3.9 7.5 NA 2.4 3.9 -0.3 -1.3200105 3.8 5.4 NA 1.1 2.4 1.2 0.4198185 7.4 9.2 NA 4.4 4.9 1.3 1.0198690 10.8 7.9 NA 5.1 5.5 4.8 4.5199195 6.6 9.9 NA 4.7 5.1 0.1 -0.119962000 -0.3 5.3 NA -2.6 -1.9 -0.5 -1.0200105 4.2 2.7 NA 0.8 2.3 2.7 1.7199195 1.3% 200105 -0.2% 1.5%p , 7.1% 2.4% 4.7%p . , . 200105 199195 , . , 40% 199195 15.3% 200105 4.5% . 55. 2 41 199195 3.7% 200105 4.6% , -0.1%1.7% .5. , . . (steadystate) . , .3 . . 1990 . 1960 2004 83 GDP . , . ( ) GDP , , (TFPG) 56. 42 : .1. . Collins andBosworth(2003) ., . (13) Y , K , L , A . . (14) EAP L , WAP POP . , , , . GDP , GDP PennWorld Table 6.2 GDP. Nehru andDhareshwar(1993) World Development Indicators(WDI) 2004 . , WDI . Bosworth and Collins(2003) 0.35 .< 2-5> [ 2-10] 19612006 . 57. 2 43 (%) A b c D E f g h i=b+h=c+i=a-h=c+f+g=a-i=d+e1961~65 5.68 3.24 2.39 1.05 1.34 1.05 -0.39 2.59 3.291966~70 9.79 7.54 6.92 2.21 4.71 0.20 0.43 2.25 2.871971~75 7.54 5.54 4.19 0.94 3.25 -0.06 1.42 2.00 3.351976~80 7.07 5.52 5.00 0.67 4.33 -0.66 1.18 1.55 2.071981~85 7.50 6.14 5.60 2.82 2.79 -0.58 1.11 1.36 1.891986~90 9.73 8.75 6.68 3.89 2.79 1.05 1.01 0.99 3.051991~95 7.47 6.45 5.27 2.10 3.17 0.72 0.46 1.01 2.191996~2000 4.14 3.31 2.98 0.85 2.13 0.04 0.29 0.83 1.162001~06 4.50 4.03 3.03 1.72 1.31 0.89 0.09 0.47 1.471961~70 7.74 5.39 4.66 1.63 3.03 0.63 0.02 2.42 3.081971~80 7.30 5.53 4.59 0.81 3.79 -0.36 1.30 1.78 2.711981~90 8.62 7.44 6.14 3.35 2.79 0.24 1.06 1.17 2.471991~2000(1991~97)5.80(6.90)4.88(5.90)4.13(4.69)1.48(1.67)2.65(3.01)0.38(0.78)0.38(0.43)0.92(0.99)1.67(2.21)2001~06(2001~04)4.50(4.45)4.03(3.89)3.03(2.85)1.72(1.52)1.31(1.32)0.89(1.00)0.09(0.03)0.47(0.56)1.47(1.60)1961~06 7.05 5.61 4.68 1.81 2.87 0.29 0.62 1.45 2.37< 2-5> (1961~2006): X . Y = GDP, P POP = , L EAP = ,WAP = . 58. 44 : [ 2-10] (1961~2006) 2.6-0.41.11.31.12.30.40.24.72.22.01.4-0.13.30.91.61.2-0.74.30.71.41.1-0.62.82.81.01.01.12.83.91.00.50.73.22.10.80.30.02.10.90.50.10.91.31.7-202468101961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 2001-06 TFP (K/L) (EAP)c (WAP)c TPOP5.79.87.5 7.1 7.59.77.54.14.5: TFP = (K/L)c = 1 (EAP)c = (WAP)c = TPOP = 1990 , .199195 GDP 7.5% , 1996 11 4.3% . GDP , , GDP . GDP ? [ 2-10] GDP , . U . , 59. 2 45_01-06_91-97 4.50 6.90 -2.40 4.03 5.90 -1.87 3.03 4.69 -1.66 1.72 1.67 0.05 1.31 3.01 -1.70 0.89 0.78 0.11 0.09 0.43 -0.34 0.47 0.99 -0.53< 2-6> : X . Y = GDP, P POP = , L EAP = ,WAP = . , . . GDP (+) , 1970 . GDP . GDP GDP , . < 2-6> 1990 2000GDP . , GDP (-1.7%p) 60. 46 : . 200106 ( 1.72%) 1990 . GDP . , 19612006 (1.81%) . 2 . 2 . 2 , 200005 199095 0.8%p .16)17)16) 2 , . 1990 2000 . 90 2000 . WDI 90 2000 . 2000 90 2000 90 . 2000 90 . .17) [ 2-10] . 1980 61. 2 472. : . . .< 2-7>( 2-11) 19612004 . GDP . (Golden Age) , , 80 10, , 1970 1960 . < 2-7> Easterly, Kremer, Pritchett, and Summers(1993) . < 2-7> 1960 . GDP . . , .18)19) , 2000 . . .18) 62. 48 : / GDP (%) GDP (%) (%, )(%)(83)1961~70 5.3 3.5 1.5 2.11971~80 4.0 2.2 1.3 0.91981~90 3.7 2.0 0.8 1.11991~2000 3.6 2.2 1.0 1.22001~04 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.41961~04 4.0 2.4 1.2 1.3(22)1961~70 5.3 3.9 1.7 2.31971~80 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.71981~90 2.9 1.8 0.7 1.11991~2000 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.92001~04 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.21961~04 3.3 2.1 1.1 1.11961~70 3.5 1.6 0.1 1.61971~80 5.9 4.1 1.9 2.21981~90 9.5 6.9 2.3 4.71991~2000 9.7 8.4 3.3 5.12001~04 7.8 6.9 3.6 3.21961~04 7.2 5.4 2.1 3.41961~70 7.7 4.7 3.0 1.61971~80 7.3 4.6 3.8 0.81981~90 8.6 6.1 2.8 3.41991~2000(1991~97)5.86.94.14.72.73.01.51.72001~04 4.5 2.9 1.3 1.51961~04 7.1 4.7 2.9 1.8< 2-7> (1961~2004 ) Young(1995) Kim and Lau(1994) TFPG controversy . .19) < 2-7> . (< 2-8>), . 63. 2 49/ GDP (%) GDP (%) (%, )(%)(5) ,1961~70 5.7 2.7 1.6 1.11971~80 7.5 4.5 2.6 2.01981~90 5.6 2.3 1.8 0.41991~2000 4.9 2.3 1.7 0.62001~04 3.4 1.3 0.5 0.91961~04 5.7 2.8 1.8 1.0 (22)1961~70 5.8 3.2 1.1 2.11971~80 5.8 3.1 1.6 1.51981~90 1.4 -1.8 -0.1 -1.71991~2000 3.1 0.2 0.1 -0.22001~04 1.5 -1.0 0.2 -0.81961~04 3.7 1.0 0.6 0.4(4)1961~70 5.3 3.3 1.5 1.81971~80 3.9 2.2 0.9 1.31981~90 5.3 3.3 0.9 2.41991~2000 4.7 2.9 1.1 1.82001~04 5.6 3.3 1.2 2.11961~04 4.9 3.0 1.1 1.8 (19)1961~70 4.5 2.1 1.1 1.01971~80 3.7 1.6 1.6 0.01981~90 3.0 0.0 -0.1 0.11991~2000 2.7 0.1 -0.1 0.12001~04 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.71961~04 3.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 (9)1961~70 6.3 4.5 1.8 2.71971~80 4.2 2.7 2.7 0.11981~90 3.8 0.8 0.5 0.31991~2000 4.0 1.3 0.2 1.12001~04 3.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.11961~04 4.4 2.0 1.2 0.9< 2-7> 64. 50 : [ 2-11] , 1961~2004(, %)1961~20041.11.12.13.42.91.81.81.00.60.4 1.11.80.60.3 1.20.9012345678910Industrial China Korea East Latin SouthA Africa MiddleATFP(K/L)1961~701.72.30.11.631.61.61.11.12.11.51.81.111.82.7012345678910Industrial China Korea East Latin SouthA Africa MiddleATFP(K/L)1971~8010.71.92.23.80.82.62.01.61.50.91.31.60.02.70.1012345678910Industrial China Korea East Latin SouthA Africa MiddleATFP(K/L) 65. 0.90.2 3.63.21.31.50.50.90.2-0.81.22.10.50.7-0.1-0.1-1012345678910Indus trial China Korea Eas t Latin SouthA Africa MiddleATFP(K/L)2 51[ 2-11] 1981~900.71.1 2.34.72.83.41.80.4-0.1-1.70.92.4-0.10.10.50.3-2-1012345678910Industrial China Korea East Latin SouthA Africa MiddleATFP(K/L)1991~20000.80.93.35.12.71.51.70.60.1-0.21.11.8-0.10.10.21.1-1012345678910Industrial China Korea East Latin SouthA Africa MiddleATFP(K/L)2001~04 66. 52 : < 2-7> [ 2-11] . , .2001 2004 GDP 2.9% .20) 2000 . ( ) , . . . . .21) ( 1.3%p, ) . .200104 GDP 3.6%p . 20) ( ) , , , , , 6 , , . , 2000 1990 . GDP 2000 , .21) (2006) (2006) . 67. 2 53 . , .< 2-7> 2000 . . , . 1990 . (2006) , . , < 2-7> .200104 1.5% 1990 19612004 1.8% . , GDP . ? . (3.2%) (2.1%) 200104 . (0.2%) . 2000 () (0.4%)1990 (1.2%) .22) 68. 54 : , . , Bosworth and Collins(2003) . (15) s 25 Barro and Lee(2000) , 1 7% . < 2-8> .23) 200104 1.2% , 1990 . . . . < 2-9> . , 200104 83 14( 13), 1990 . 1960 1980 , 1980 22) 2000 () . 2000 ( B ).23) Barro and Lee(2001) 2000 . 200004 1990 . 69. 2 55/ GDP(%) GDP (%)(%, )(%, )(%)(83)1961~70 5.3 3.5 1.5 0.3 1.81971~80 4.0 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.41981~90 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.91991~2000 3.6 2.2 1.0 0.3 1.02001~04 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.31961~04 4.0 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.9(22)1961~70 5.3 3.9 1.7 0.3 1.91971~80 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.01981~90 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.91991~2000 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.72001~04 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.01961~04 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.81961~70 3.5 1.6 0.1 - -1971~80 5.9 4.1 1.9 0.2 3.21981~90 9.5 6.9 2.3 0.7 4.01991~2000 9.7 8.4 3.3 0.2 4.92001~04 7.8 6.9 3.6 0.2 3.01961~04 7.2 5.4 2.1 0.4 3.01961~70 7.7 4.7 3.0 0.7 1.01971~80 7.3 4.6 3.8 0.9 -0.11981~90 8.6 6.1 2.8 1.1 2.31991~2000 5.8 4.1 2.7 0.5 1.02001~04 4.5 2.9 1.3 0.3 1.21961~04 7.1 4.7 2.9 0.7 1.1(5) , 1961~70 5.7 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.71971~80 7.5 4.5 2.6 0.4 1.61981~90 5.6 2.3 1.8 0.4 0.11991~2000 4.9 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.02001~04 3.4 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.51961~04 5.7 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.6< 2-8> ( ) 70. 56 : /GDP(%) GDP (%)(%, )(%, )(%) (22)1961~70 5.8 3.2 1.1 0.2 1.91971~80 5.8 3.1 1.6 0.3 1.21981~90 1.4 -1.8 -0.1 0.4 -2.21991~2000 3.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.52001~04 1.5 -1.0 0.2 0.3 -1.21961~04 3.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0(4)1961~70 5.3 3.3 1.5 0.2 1.51971~80 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.3 1.01981~90 5.3 3.3 0.9 0.4 2.01991~2000 4.7 2.9 1.1 0.4 1.42001~04 5.6 3.3 1.2 0.4 1.71961~04 4.9 3.0 1.1 0.3 1.5 (19)1961~70 4.5 2.1 1.1 0.1 1.51971~80 3.7 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.41981~90 3.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.21991~2000 2.7 0.1 -0.1 0.8 -1.02001~04 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.91961~04 3.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 (9)1961~70 6.3 4.5 1.8 0.1 2.51971~80 4.2 2.7 2.7 0.4 -0.31981~90 3.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 -0.31991~2000 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.5 0.62001~04 3.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.5 -0.91961~04 4.4 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.4< 2-8> 71. 2 57 ( ) ( ) 4 4 Q1 median Q3 Q1 median Q31961~7039(1.6)(2.3)(1.5)(0.6)41(1.0)(2.2)(1.0)(0.1)1971~80 47 (0.8)(1.8)(1.1)(0.1)55(-0.1)(1.5)(0.6)(-0.1)1981~904(3.4)(1.1)(0.3)(-1.2)5(2.3)(0.8)(-0.2)(-1.8)1991~200020(1.5)(1.4)(0.8)(-0.5)21(1.0)(1.0)(0.4)(-1.3)2001~0414(1.5)(1.1)(0.0)(-1.3)13(1.2)(0.9)(-0.2)(-2.2)1961~0411(1.8)(1.4)(0.8)(0.1)16(1.1)(1.0)(0.4)(-0.5)< 2-9> 83 3. . . 72. 58 : , GDP . ? . GDP , , .24)< 2-10> 10 GDP pooled OLS . 10 . GDP . GDP , , 80 , . GDP , . GDP ( ), , . , . . < 2-10> 83 2 24) , . . 73. 2 59 1 2 3 42(sub sample) 0.030*** -0.192*** -0.226*** -0.214*** -0.254***(11.94) (-4.46) (-5.26) (-4.98) (-3.97)60* 0.017 0.012 0.001 -0.010 0.003(0.75) (0.55) (0.05) (-0.5) (0.19)70* 0.023 0.018 0.008 -0.003 0.013(1.06) (0.83) (0.39) (-0.17) (0.82)80* 0.058*** 0.055*** 0.048*** 0.037* 0.039**(2.62) (2.54) (2.42) (1.83) (2.45)90* 0.029 0.028 0.029 0.018 0.022(1.31) (1.33) (1.48) (0.88) (1.36)00* 0.022 0.021 0.025 0.014 0.018(0.98) (0.99) (1.28) (0.68) (1.12) GDP( )-0.008*** -0.016*** -0.016*** -0.013***(-4.04) (-7.51) (-7.22) (-5.97) 0.053*** 0.053*** 0.050*** 0.068***(5.19) (5.25) (4.98) (4.49)GDP 0.009** 0.008*(2.31) (1.9) 0.004*** 0.004***(5.48) (5.58) -0.055*** -0.057***(-4.04) (-4.21) 0.012***(2.58)R20.186 0.238 0.368 0.380 0.364 404 402 365 365 205< 2-10> GDP (): Pooled OLS . GDP . t . 1%(***), 5%(**), 10%(*) . 10 . . 74. 60 : . . . < 2-11> . , , . , .< 2-11> , . < 2-11> .25) , , . ., 2 . .25) . , 90 2000 . . 75. 2 61 1 2 3 4 2(sub sample) 0.039*** -0.110** -0.112** -0.085* -0.121(13.69) (-2.1) (-2.18) (-1.68) (-1.26)60* 0.047* 0.045* 0.032 0.009 0.030(1.83) (1.77) (1.41) (0.39) (1.25)70* 0.068*** 0.065*** 0.050** 0.026 0.056**(2.63) (2.52) (2.15) (1.15) (2.35)80* 0.069*** 0.066*** 0.055*** 0.032 0.051**(2.64) (2.58) (2.41) (1.39) (2.12)90* 0.063*** 0.061*** 0.056*** 0.032 0.054**(2.41) (2.37) (2.46) (1.39) (2.25)00* 0.026 0.023 0.020 -0.004 0.020(0.98) (0.9) (0.88) (-0.19) (0.85) GDP( )-0.003 -0.010*** -0.009*** -0.009***(-1.21) (-3.84) (-3.35) (-2.78) 0.036*** 0.032*** 0.026** 0.040*(2.95) (2.63) (2.16) (1.75)GDP 0.015*** 0.012***(3.2) (2.51) 0.002*** 0.002***(2.86) (3.04) -0.105*** -0.109***(-6.5) (-6.95) 0.025***(4.81)R20.255 0.288 0.421 0.458 0.333 420 420 420 420 202< 2-11> (): Pooled OLS . GDP . ( ) t . 1%(***), 5%(**), 10%(*) . 10 . . 76. 62 : < 2-12> 80 , . , , . 80 . 80 3 , . , 200104 1.2%p . . , 10 , 1990 . , .4. . ? . 77. 2 63 1 2 3 42(sub sample)0.016*** -0.160*** -0.195*** -0.191*** -0.213***(7.91) (-4.49) (-5.38) (-5.25) (-4.49)60*0.000 -0.004 -0.010 -0.013 -0.007(0) (-0.22) (-0.61) (-0.77) (-0.63)70*0.000 -0.005 -0.009 -0.012 -0.007(-0.02) (-0.27) (-0.58) (-0.74) (-0.55)80*0.034* 0.031* 0.028* 0.025 0.022*(1.89) (1.79) (1.76) (1.54) (1.81)90*0.007 0.007 0.010 0.006 0.003(0.41) (0.41) (0.59) (0.39) (0.27)00*0.012 0.012 0.017 0.014 0.010(0.68) (0.71) (1.07) (0.86) (0.87) GDP( )-0.007*** -0.012*** -0.012*** -0.010***(-4.15) (-6.69) (-6.54) (-6.11) 0.042*** 0.044*** 0.044*** 0.054***(4.96) (5.22) (5.10) (4.83)GDP 0.004 0.003(1.07) (0.93) 0.003*** 0.003***(4.59) (4.61) -0.017 -0.017(-1.49) (-1.53) 0.003(0.81)R20.097 0.152 0.250 0.251 0.278 420 420 420 420 202< 2-12> (): Pooled OLS . GDP . t . 1%(***), 5%(**), 10%(*) . 10 . 78. 64 : . (2006) . (2005) .26) (2006) . , . . . 1990 . , .27) , (Freeman[2006],Kim et al.[2006], Lall and Albaladejo[2004]). ( [2005], [2006]).[2006] , , . , 26) Krugman(1998) .27) (fragmentation of production) . Feenstra(1998), Feenstra andHanson(2001), World Bank(2006) . 79. 2 65 .28) (2006) 19912003 pooled OLS . , , , , (2-13). 19912003 KSIC 3 KSIC 3 .29) ( ) . < 2-14> . PVSH_china 1% .30)28) , . , . .29) , . , 3 . (2007) .30) VSH_china (value share) , PSH_china , (product coverage ratio) . VSH_china (intensive margin), PSH_china (extensive margin). PVSH_china VSH_china PSH_china , . Bernard, Jensen, and Schott(2002) . 80. 66 : 1 2 3 4 5 6()0.11***(176.78)0.11***(177.14)0.111***(175.72)0.11***(176.97)0.111***(174.96) 0.001***(8.50)0.001***(7.74)0.001***(6.79)0.001***(7.74)0.001***(6.70)()0.041***(71.58)0.034***(62.48)0.034***(61.71)0.034***(58.88)0.034***(34.88)0.034***(23.58)0.032***(38.15)0.006***(8.06)0.005***(6.83)0.005***(6.28)0.0002(0.15)-0.006***(-2.89)0.034***(25.43)0.035***(25.50)0.032***(12.99)0.056***(16.68)VSH_china-0.028***(-5.98)-0.021**(-2.22)-0.008**(-2.08)0.019***(3.58)-0.092***(-10.22)VSH_japan-0.031***(-7.35)-0.021***(-5.16)-0.018***(-4.62)-0.033***(-7.36)-0.024***(-2.73)-0.052***(-4.87)-0.0004(-0.12)0.001(0.31)0.022***(3.70)0.037***(5.59)0.01(1.26)-0.037***(-3.94) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesR2 0.038 0.166 0.168 0.169 0.168 0.170 221629 221629 220780 215710 220780 215710< 2-13> : Pooled OLS . 19912003 . t . 1%(***), 5%(**), 10%(*) .: (2006) . 81. 2 67 1 2 3 4 5 6()-0.052(-1.56)-0.046(-1.36)-0.059*(-1.70)-0.059*(-1.66)-0.058*(-1.72)-0.055(-1.59)-0.056(-0.65)-0.056(-0.65)-0.037(-0.43)-0.037(-0.44)-0.057(-0.67)-0.061(-0.72)VSH_china-0.245*(-1.88)-0.253**(-1.85)PSH_china-0.157*(-1.74)-0.205**(-2.07)PVSH_china-0.310**(-2.20)-0.345**(-2.31) No Yes No Yes No YesR20.009 0.059 0.009 0.060 0.011 0.061 619 619 619 619 619 619< 2-14> : Pooled OLS . 3 19912003 . t . 1%(***), 5%(**), 10%(*) . < 2-14> , 1990 .< 2-14> , . PVSH_china 1992 0.05 2003 0.2 , < 2-14> 6 (-0.345) , 6%p . . 82. 68 : VSH_china PSH_china PVSH_china 0.135 0.731 0.1141991 0.053 0.492 0.0321992 0.067 0.565 0.0481993 0.072 0.590 0.0541994 0.086 0.701 0.0691995 0.065 0.707 0.0761996 0.107 0.735 0.0901997 0.134 0.767 0.1171998 0.134 0.667 0.0971999 0.140 0.785 0.1232000 0.162 0.810 0.1392001 0.177 0.815 0.1542002 0.196 0.834 0.1772003 0.218 0.860 0.1952004 0.236 0.873 0.214< 2-15> 90 . 90 .31)31) [ 2-2] , 1980 . (2007) 90 . 83. 2 695. , . , . . , , . . . 19612004 1990 . , GDP . , . . 1990 . , 84. 70 : . 2000 , . , . , . , . , 1990 . . , . 85. 2 71/ (7 )(22 )(22 )(4 ) (9 ) (19 )< A> ( ) 86. 72 : /GDP (%) GDP (%) (%, )(%)(83)1961~70 5.2 3.0 1.4 1.61971~80 4.3 2.3 1.4 0.81981~90 2.9 0.4 0.4 0.01991~2000 3.5 1.3 0.5 0.82001~04 2.7 0.7 0.4 0.31961~04 3.8 1.7 0.9 0.8(22)1961~70 5.1 4.0 1.9 2.21971~80 3.4 1.8 1.2 0.71981~90 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.71991~2000 2.6 1.7 0.7 1.12001~04 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.31961~04 3.3 2.1 1.1 1.11961~70 3.5 1.6 0.1 1.61971~80 5.9 4.1 1.9 2.21981~90 9.5 6.9 2.3 4.71991~2000 9.7 8.4 3.3 5.12001~04 7.8 6.9 3.6 3.21961~04 7.2 5.4 2.1 3.41961~70 7.7 4.7 3.0 1.61971~80 7.3 4.6 3.8 0.81981~90 8.6 6.1 2.8 3.41991~2000 5.8 4.1 2.7 1.52001~04 4.5 2.9 1.3 1.51961~04 7.1 4.7 2.9 1.8(5) , 1961~70 6.4 3.2 2.4 0.81971~80 7.7 4.4 2.6 1.81981~90 5.7 2.3 1.7 0.61991~2000 5.5 2.9 1.7 1.22001~04 3.3 1.3 0.5 0.81961~04 6.1 3.1 2.0 1.1< B> (1961~2004 ) 87. 2 73/GDP (%) GDP (%) (%, )(%) (83)1961~70 5.1 2.6 0.9 1.61971~80 4.7 2.2 1.3 0.91981~90 1.1 -1.8 -0.1 -1.71991~2000 3.4 0.6 0.3 0.22001~04 2.1 -0.6 0.0 -0.41961~04 3.4 0.8 0.6 0.2(4)1961~70 5.9 3.9 1.6 2.11971~80 4.7 2.5 0.9 1.51981~90 5.1 2.9 1.0 1.91991~2000 4.2 2.3 1.0 1.32001~04 4.8 2.6 1.0 1.81961~04 4.9 2.8 1.1 1.7 (19)1961~70 4.2 1.8 1.0 0.81971~80 3.5 1.6 1.1 0.51981~90 2.8 -0.2 -0.1 -0.11991~2000 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.52001~04 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.31961~04 3.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 (9)1961~70 6.2 3.9 1.5 2.41971~80 4.6 3.2 2.4 0.81981~90 4.1 1.1 0.7 0.41991~2000 4.2 1.0 -0.1 0.72001~04 2.9 -0.1 -0.1 0.21961~04 4.6 2.0 1.1 1.0< B> 88. 74 : , , 98-01, , 1998., 1990 , , 2006., , , 1998., , ,2005., , , 2006., , , : , , 2005., , , 9, 1, 2003., 1990 , , 2006., , , , : 20062080 , 2007., , 5, , 2007., , 12 1, , 2006.Barro, Roberts., Notes on Growth Accounting, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 4,No.2, 1999, pp.119~137.Barro, Robert J. and Jong-Wha, LeeInternational Data on Educational Attainment:Updates and Implications, Oxford Economic Papers Vol. 53, No. 3, SpecialIssue on Skills Measurement and Economic Analysis, 2001, pp.541~563.Bernard, Andrew B., J. 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World Development, Vol. 32, No. 9. 90. 76 : 2004, pp.1441~1466.Nehru, Vikram, and Ashok Dhareshwar, A New Database on Physical CapitalStock: Sources, Methodology and Results, Revista de Analisi Economico, 8,1993.Pyo, Hak K., Estimates of Capital Stocks by Industries and Types of Assets inKorea(1953~2000), Journal of Korea Economic Analysis, 2003.Young, Alwyn, The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities ofthe East Asian Growth Experience, The Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol. 110, No. 3, 1995, pp.641~680. 91. 1990 : (KDI )1 1990 ? . , Blanchard and Quah(1989) (Structural Vector Auto Regression: SVAR) , 90 () . Blanchard and Quah(1989) (permanent shock) (temporary shock) , . Blanchard and Quah(1989) . 1990 , 92. 78 : .2007 1990 1997 4 , (inflation targeting) . , . . , , , 1990 . . , 2 . . 3 . VAR(Structural VAR, SVAR) . , . , 4 . 5 .2 : . , SVAR . 93. 3 1990 : 791971~1979 1980~1989 1990~1999 2000~2007. 2/4 8.1 7.4 6.0 5.0 6.7 3.4 3.8 4.8 2.1 3.91. : 1960 . 1997 . < 3-1> GDP 1970 8.1% 2000 5.0% . , GDP 1970 3.4% 1990 4.8% 2000 2.1% . 1990 1997 4 ( 3-1 ). 1990 2000 . , ( 90 ) , . 1) , < 3-1> GDP (: 1971 1/4~2007 2/4)(: , %)1) , . , . 94. 80 : [ 3-1] GDP GDP -10-50510151970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 GDP GDP( )( : %, %)(inflation targeting), (floating exchange rate) ., 2), . (inflation targeting) . , . (inflation targeting) 2) (Hur and Sung[2003]). ( ) / , . 95. 3 1990 : 81 .2. 1990 SVAR . , . , . 2000 ., (2001) B-Q(1989) . - Cholesky( ) , . () 3) ., (2005) . , , , . -3) . = LM (, ) . . 96. 82 : Cholesky . , (2007) B-Q ., GDP, , , , . . , , . , , . , , . , 4), . SVAR .3 . 4) (2001) , Cholesky . (2001) . 97. 3 1990 : 83 . . , . . . , . (robustness) . . Blanchard and Quah(1989) SVAR , . . , . , , . B-Q(1989) -, - . . 98. 84 : 1. , . , 1990 . , (inflation targeting), (floating exchange rate) . , . AD-AS . , , , , , (Terms of Trade) . , , . , . , . . , . , , . 99. 3 1990 : 85, . . .2. Blanchard and Quah(1989) Stock and Watson(2002) . . Blanchard and Quah(1989) 2- 2- 3- 3- . 3-3- GDP ( ) ( ) ( ) , (), (), (), 5)() 4 ., Stock and Watson(2002) GDP ( ), ( ), ( ) ( ) ( ) . B-Q(1989) 6) . , B-Q S-W 1- 1- . 5) . .6) B-Q(1989) , SVAR . 100. 86 : .. Blanchard and Quah(1989) (2-, 2-)Blanchard and Quah (1989) VAR(SVAR) (Structural Moving Average Representation) , - .7)B-Q SVAR , . Stanley Fisher(1977) ( ) ., () () , ( ) , , ( ) .8)9)(1) (IS LM ) (2) ((CRS) ) 7) SVAR .8) . scaling .9) . , , . . 101. 3 1990 : 87(3) (4) : , . , . (5) AR(1) . . , (1)~(3) t-1 , (4)~(5) . , ( ) . (3) ( ) ( ) . 102. 88 : ( ) (1) (1) (2) , ( ) . ( ) (1) GDP ( ) . , 10) GDP ( ), ( ), ( ) ( ) . , SVMAR(Structural Vector Moving Average Representation) 0 0 . , 1 1 0 , 0 . 10) (level) SVAR (stationarity) . 103. 3 1990 : 89B-Q(1989) GDP 2- SVMAR . . GDP . . Blanchard and Quah(1989) (3-, 3-) B-Q(1989) 2- 3- . , (), (), (), () 4 ., () () 2- . .11) () () . (bottle neck) . , 12) ( ) ( ) .13) , () , .11) 2- .12) 1990 , (Hur and Sung[2003]).13) . , . 104. 90 : (1) (IS LM ) (2) ((CRS) ) (3) (4) (5) AR(1) . . (1)~(5) . , 14) GDP ( ), ( ), ( ) ( ) 14) (level) SVAR (stationarity) . 105. 3 1990 : 91 . SVMAR (under-identified) . ( ) SMAR . (), (), (), () 4 . .Case 1) () (exact identification)15) , 16) . , () , 15) SVAR . (exact-identification), (under-identification), (over-identification) . , - ( Amisano and Giannini(1997) ).16) ( ) , . ( ) . 106. 92 : . , () () , ., () , () .Case 2) () C , .Case 3) () ( exact-identification) Case 1 (exact identifi-cation), . , () 107. 3 1990 : 93 , . , () , . , () , , .Case 4) () C 2( ) (under-identification) . , .. Stock and Watson(2002) NewKeynesian . 17) , GDP . , 17) . ( 1980 ) , (Hur[2007]). 108. 94 : . , IS 18)( ) .(1) IS (2) New Keynesian Phillips () (3) (a forward looking Taylor rule) (4) (1)~(4) ( ) ( , , , , ) .19) , . , GDP , GDP AR(1) ,20) GDP .18) .19) (), () () , small open economy .20) (1979~2001) , Hodrick-Prescott GDP GDP (stationary) AR(1) ( ). 109. 3 1990 : 95 , (5), (5) . , . (6) 4 ( ) GDP( ), ( ), ( ), ( ) .21), (2) (3) , . 21) . 110. 96 : (3) , ( ) . ( ) , (6) . (1) , GDP . , ( ) (moving average representation)( , , , ) . GDP( ) ( ) (non-stationarity) (level) 111. 3 1990 : 97 (first order difference) . GDP( ) ( ) . ( , , , ) ( ) SVMAR .22) 44 . 6( )22) I(1) GDP() () King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson(1991) (cointegration) Structural Vector Error CorrectionModel(SVECM) . B-Q(1989) I(1) , I(0) SMAR SVAR . King et. al.(1989) (permanent shock) (transient shock) . 112. 98 : (exact identification) . , () , , . , () , . () , . () ,, . , ( ) .. . , . () GDP , . 1998 . () (a fixed ormanaged exchange rate system) . () 0 , 0 113. 3 1990 : 99 . . 1997 , .(1) IS (2) LM (1) (2) . (3) New Keynesian Phillips () (4) (5) (1)~(4) ( ) 114. 100 : ( , , , ) . , GDP , GDP AR(1) , GDP . , (6), (6) . 5 ( ) GDP( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), () . , (3) , ( ) . , ( ) () . (7) GDP( ) ( ), . . 115. 3 1990 : 101 , GDP( ), ( ) . ( , , , , ) ( ) . 55 . 116. 102 : SVMAR(Structural Vector Moving Average Representation) , (singularity) . . . ( ) .23) . , . 4 3 SVAR (over-identification) 24) - . , () , 23) SVAR . (over-differencing) .24) 117. 3 1990 : 103 . , () , . () , . , ( ) .4 1. . . GDP, , , 1970 1 2007 2, 1 2000 1 2007 2, CD 91 1991 2007 2 . 1 CD 91 . CD . . , IS (Fisher ) , . 1 CD 91 . , . , M2 . 1978 118. 104 : (DF-GLS)1%5%10% GDP -2.661 -2.581 -1.943 -1.615(GDP deflator) -2.712 -2.581 -1.943 -1.615( 1)-1.365(-4.395)-2.647(-2.650)-1.953(-1.953)-1.610(-1.610)(CD 91)-0.722(-5.278)-2.602(-2.602)-1.946(-1.613)-1.613(-1.613) -6.068 -2.599 -1.946 -1.614(M2)-1.352(-2.410)-2.581(-2.581)-1.943(-1.943)-1.615(-1.615) 2.659 -2.581 -1.943 -1.615< 3-2> (DF-GLS): 1. ( ) 1 . M1 M2 . 1986 , . DF-GLS ( 3-2 ). GDP M2 (level) . VAR , (asymptotic distribution) (Hamilton[1994]).25) .25) Rothenberg and Stock(1997) I(1) VAR (consistency) . 119. 3 1990 : 105 LR FPE AIC HQIC SBIC GDP 78 33 76 76 76 GDP , 79 22 38 38 38 GDP , 1 13 2 13 13 13 GDP , 3 35 3 35 35 35 GDP , CD 91 35 1 35 35 35 SVAR VAR . < 3-3> B-Q(1989) < 3-4> S-W(2002) . < 3-3> B-Q : 1) 1970 1~2007 2.2) LR likelihood ratio test, FPE final prediction error, AIC Akaikes informationcriterion, HQIC Hannan and Quinn information criterion, SBIC Bayesianinformation criterion.< 3-4> S-W LR FPE AIC HQIC SBIC2000. 1/4~2007. 2/4 GDP ( 91)1 - 5 5 51991. 1/4~1997. 3/4 GDP (CD 91) 2 1 19 19 19 120. 106 : . 26) SVAR 4 .2. (IR) (FEVD) (Impulse Response analysis) , (Forecasting Error Variance Decomposition) . VAR . SVAR .. Blanchard and Quah(1989) (2-, 2-) B-Q(1989) . B-Q , . 2 IR FEVD . 1970 1 2007 2, 1970 1 1979 4, 19801 1989 4, 1990 1 1999 4, 2000 1 2007 2 5 . 1970 1 2007 2 .27)26) . 121. 3 1990 : 107[ 3-2] 1970 1 2007 2 IR . , GDP . ., (+) , GDP , (20) . , (+) ( 20 ) , GDP .28), [ 3-3] FEVD ( GDP ) 80 20 , [ 3-2] B-Q 2 (1970. 1/4~2007. 2/4)GDP -0.015-0.010-0.0050.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2-0.003-0.002-0.0010.0000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2: 1, 2 .27) (, ) , , .28) B-Q(1989) . , 3- GDP . 122. 108 : [ 3-3] B-Q 2 (1970. 1/4~2007. 2/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.80 10 20 30 40 50 1 20.2.4.6.810 10 20 30 40 50 1 2: 1, 2 . 85 15 . , .29) , [3-4] . 1970 1 2007 2 10 5 , IR FEVD ., [ 3-4] [ 3-5] 1970 1 1979 4 . , (2010). , 6 4 (29) , . . 123. 3 1990 : 109[ 3-4] B-Q 2 (1970. 1/4~1979. 4/4)GDP -0.010-0.0050.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2-0.0015-0.0010-0.00050.00000.00050.00100.00150.00200.00250 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2: 1, 2 .[ 3-5] B-Q 2 (1970. 1/4~1979. 4/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.80 10 20 30 40 50 1 20.2.4.6.80 10 20 30 40 50 1 2: 1, 2 .8 2) . (OilShocks) . , 1, 2 ([-]) . [ 3-4] 124. 110 : . [ 3-3] . , [ 3-6] [ 3-7] 1980 1 1989 4 . 1970 , [ 3-2] . [ 3-3][ 3-6] B-Q 2 (1980. 1/4~1989. 4/4)GDP -0.015-0.010-0.0050.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2-0.002-0.0010.0000.0010.0020.0030.0040 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2: 1, 2 .[ 3-7] B-Q 2 (1980. 1/4~1989. 4/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.80 10 20 30 40 50 1 20.2.4.6.810 10 20 30 40 50 1 2: 1, 2 . 125. 3 1990 : 111 . , [ 3-8] [ 3-9] 1990 1 1999 4 . 1970~80 , . , [ 3-8] B-Q 2 (1990. 1/4~1999. 4/4)GDP -0.015-0.010-0.0050.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2-0.008-0.006-0.004-0.0020.0000.0020.0040.0060 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2: 1, 2 .[ 3-9] B-Q 2 (1990. 1/4~1999. 4/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.80 10 20 30 40 50 1 20.2.4.6.80 10 20 30 40 50 1 2: 1, 2 . 126. 112 : (2030) . 70 (60%) , 70% . 1990 . , (credit channel) ., [ 3-10] [ 3-11] 2000 1 2007 2 . 1970~90 , 20 , . 2000 ( 3-1 ) . , [ 3-11] [3-3] .[ 3-10] B-Q 2 (2001. 1/4~2007. 2/4)GDP -0.004-0.003-0.002-0.0010.0000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2-0.0008-0.0006-0.0004-0.00020.00000.00020.00040.00060.00080.00100.00120 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2: 1, 2 . 127. 3 1990 : 113[ 3-11] B-Q 2 (2001. 1/4~2007. 2/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.810 10 20 30 40 50 1 20.2.4.6.810 10 20 30 40 50 1 2: 1, 2 .. Blanchard and Quah(1989) (3-, 3-) 2-, 2- B-Q 3-, 3- , IR FEVD . 3- GDP . 3 (), (), (), () 4 . , . , , , 2- B-Q IR FEVD ., [ 3-12]~[ 3-21] (), (), () , . 128. 114 : , GDP, , () , 10 ( ) ([ 3-12] )., , GDP , , .30) , , 3- , ([ 3-13] )., 1970 [ 3-14] , , 2- B-Q . , [3-15] , GDP , ., [ 3-16] [ 3-17] 2 3- (-, -, -) 1980 IR FEVD . 1970 (persistence) , 3- ., [ 3-18] [ 3-19] 1990 IR FEVD . 1997 4 . 30) . , . 129. 3 1990 : 115[ 3-12] () (1970. 1/4~2007. 2/4)GDP - 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 .0 2 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 2 00 .0 0 00 .0 2 00 .0 4 00 .0 6 00 .0 8 00 .1 0 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 3- 0 .0 0 2- 0 .0 0 10 .0 0 00 .0 0 10 .0 0 20 .0 0 30 .0 0 40 .0 0 50 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 130. 116 : [ 3-13] () (1970. 1/4~2007. 2/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.810 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.810 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 131. 3 1990 : 117[ 3-14] () (1970. 1/4~1979. 1/4)GDP - 0 .0 0 4- 0 .0 0 20 .0 0 00 .0 0 20 .0 0 40 .0 0 60 .0 0 80 .0 1 00 .0 1 20 .0 1 40 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 1 5- 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 .0 2 00 .0 2 50 .0 3 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 2 0- 0 .0 0 1 5- 0 .0 0 1 0- 0 .0 0 0 50 .0 0 0 00 .0 0 0 50 .0 0 1 00 .0 0 1 50 .0 0 2 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 132. 118 : [ 3-15] () (1970. 1/4~1979. 1/4)GDP 0.2.4.60 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.1.2.3.40 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 133. 3 1990 : 119[ 3-16] () (1980. 1/4~1989. 1/4)GDP - 0 .0 1 5- 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 3 0- 0 .0 2 5- 0 .0 2 0- 0 .0 1 5- 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 .0 2 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 1 0- 0 .0 0 0 50 .0 0 0 00 .0 0 0 50 .0 0 1 00 .0 0 1 50 .0 0 2 00 .0 0 2 50 .0 0 3 00 .0 0 3 50 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 134. 120 : [ 3-17] () (1980. 1/4~1989. 1/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.1.2.3.4.50 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 135. 3 1990 : 121[ 3-18] () (1990. 1/4~1999. 1/4)GDP - 0 .0 2 0- 0 .0 1 5- 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 .0 2 00 .0 2 50 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 .0 2 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 6- 0 .0 0 4- 0 .0 0 20 .0 0 00 .0 0 20 .0 0 40 .0 0 60 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 136. 122 : [ 3-19] () (1990. 1/4~1999. 1/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.60 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 137. 3 1990 : 123 GDP . , (credit channel) (-) ( 3-18 ). , [ 3-19] ., 2000 [ 3-20] [ 3-21] . , (20 ) . 1970 , 2000 [ 3-1] . , [ 3-21] ., [ 3-22]~[ 3-31] (), (), () , ., GDP, , () , 10 ( ) ( 3-22 )., , GDP , , . , , 3- , ( 3-23 ). 138. 124 : [ 3-20] () (2000. 1/4~2007. 2/4) GDP - 0 .0 0 3- 0 .0 0 2- 0 .0 0 10 .0 0 00 .0 0 10 .0 0 20 .0 0 30 .0 0 40 .0 0 50 .0 0 60 .0 0 70 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 6- 0 .0 0 4- 0 .0 0 20 .0 0 00 .0 0 20 .0 0 40 .0 0 60 .0 0 80 .0 1 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 1 0- 0 .0 0 0 8- 0 .0 0 0 6- 0 .0 0 0 4- 0 .0 0 0 20 .0 0 0 00 .0 0 0 20 .0 0 0 40 .0 0 0 60 .0 0 0 80 .0 0 1 00 .0 0 1 20 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 139. 3 1990 : 125[ 3-21] () (2000. 1/4~2007. 2/4) GDP 0.2.4.6.810 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.60 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 140. 126 : [ 3-22] () (1970. 1/4~2007. 2/4)GDP - 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 .0 2 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3 - 0 .0 2 00 .0 0 00 .0 2 00 .0 4 00 .0 6 00 .0 8 00 .1 0 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 3- 0 .0 0 2- 0 .0 0 10 .0 0 00 .0 0 10 .0 0 20 .0 0 30 .0 0 40 .0 0 50 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 141. 3 1990 : 127[ 3-23] () (1970. 1/4~2007. 2/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.810 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.810 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 142. 128 : [ 3-24] () (1970. 1/4~1979. 1/4)GDP - 0 .0 0 4- 0 .0 0 20 .0 0 00 .0 0 20 .0 0 40 .0 0 60 .0 0 80 .0 1 00 .0 1 20 .0 1 40 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3 - 0 .0 1 5- 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 .0 2 00 .0 2 50 .0 3 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 2 0- 0 .0 0 1 5- 0 .0 0 1 0- 0 .0 0 0 50 .0 0 0 00 .0 0 0 50 .0 0 1 00 .0 0 1 50 .0 0 2 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 143. 3 1990 : 129[ 3-25] () (1970. 1/4~1979. 1/4)GDP 0.2.4.60 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.1.2.3.40 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 144. 130 : [ 3-26] () (1980. 1/4~1989. 1/4)GDP - 0 .0 1 5- 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3 - 0 .0 3 0- 0 .0 2 5- 0 .0 2 0- 0 .0 1 5- 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 .0 2 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 1- 0 .0 0 10 .0 0 00 .0 0 10 .0 0 10 .0 0 20 .0 0 20 .0 0 30 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 145. 3 1990 : 131[ 3-27] () (1980. 1/4~1989. 1/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.1.2.3.4.50 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 146. 132 : [ 3-28] () (1990. 1/4~1999. 1/4)GDP - 0 .0 2 0- 0 .0 1 5- 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 .0 2 00 .0 2 50 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3 - 0 .0 1 0- 0 .0 0 50 .0 0 00 .0 0 50 .0 1 00 .0 1 50 .0 2 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 6- 0 .0 0 4- 0 .0 0 20 .0 0 00 .0 0 20 .0 0 40 .0 0 60 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 147. 3 1990 : 133[ 3-29] () (1990. 1/4~1999. 1/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.60 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 148. 134 : [ 3-30] () (2000. 1/4~2007. 2/4)GDP - 0 .0 0 3- 0 .0 0 2- 0 .0 0 10 .0 0 00 .0 0 10 .0 0 20 .0 0 30 .0 0 40 .0 0 50 .0 0 60 .0 0 70 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 3- 0 .0 0 2- 0 .0 0 10 .0 0 00 .0 0 10 .0 0 20 .0 0 30 .0 0 40 .0 0 50 .0 0 60 .0 0 70 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 1 0- 0 .0 0 0 8- 0 .0 0 0 6- 0 .0 0 0 4- 0 .0 0 0 20 .0 0 0 00 .0 0 0 20 .0 0 0 40 .0 0 0 60 .0 0 0 80 .0 0 1 00 .0 0 1 20 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 149. 3 1990 : 135[ 3-31] () (2000. 1/4~2007. 2/4)GDP 0.2.4.6.810 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.60 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 150. 136 : , 1970 [ 3-24] , , 2- B-Q . , [ 3-25] , GDP , ., [ 3-26] [ 3-27] 2 3- (-, -, -) 1980 IR FEVD . 1970 (persistence) , 3- ., [ 3-28] [ 3-29] 1990 IR FEVD . 1997 4 . GDP . ( 3-28 ). , [ 3-29] ., 2000 [ 3-30] [ 3-31] . , (20 ) . 1970 , 2000 [ 3-1] . , . 151. 3 1990 : 137. B-Q ( ) Stock andWatson(2002) . , . , SVAR . , 2000 1 2007 2 .31)GDP ( ), (), 1 ( ), ( ) , () 1 () SVAR [ 3-32]~[ 3-33] . GDP , . . , 70 , 40 . [ 3-33] GDP , , . , .31) 1998 1 , . 2000 1 . 152. 138 : [ 3-32] (2000. 1/4 ~ 2007. 2/4)GDP -0.003-0.002-0.0010.0000.0010.0020.0030.0040 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2 3 4-0.0035-0.0030-0.0025-0.0020-0.0015-0.0010-0.00050.00000.00050.00100.00150.00200 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2 3 4 -0.0010-0.00050.00000.00050.00100.00150.00200 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2 3 4-0.010-0.008-0.006-0.004-0.0020.0000.0020.0040.0060.0080.0100 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 481 2 3 4: 1, 2, 3, 4 , , .. SVAR . . , CD 91 , 1991 1 1997 3 .GDP ( ), CD 91 ( ), M2 153. 3 1990 : 139[ 3-33] (2000. 1/4 ~ 2007. 2/4)GDP 0.1.2.3.4.50 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 40.2.4.60 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4 0.2.4.6.80 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 40.2.4.60 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4: 1, 2, 3, 4 , , .( ) , () SVAR 32) [34] [ 3-35] . GDP ,CD .32) () (over-identification) . (1) 2.6470.104 p- . . 154. 140 : [ 3-34] (1991. 1/4~1997. 3/4)GDP - 0 .0 0 2- 0 .0 0 10 .0 0 00 .0 0 10 .0 0 20 .0 0 30 .0 0 40 .0 0 50 .0 0 60 .0 0 70 .0 0 80 .0 0 90 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 4- 0 .0 0 20 .0 0 00 .0 0 20 .0 0 40 .0 0 60 .0 0 80 .0 1 00 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3 - 0 .0 0 6- 0 .0 0 4- 0 .0 0 20 .0 0 00 .0 0 20 .0 0 40 .0 0 60 .0 0 80 4 8 1 2 1 6 2 0 2 4 2 8 3 2 3 6 4 0 4 4 4 8 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 155. 3 1990 : 141[ 3-35] (1991. 1/4~1997. 3/4)GDP 0.2.4.60 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3 0.2.4.6.80 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 1 2 3: 1, 2, 3 , , . 156. 142 : , 30~40 ( 3-34). GDP , ( 3-35). SVAR . ( 1 vs. CD 91 ) . GDP . , 1990 2000 .33) 1990 , 2000 . , 2000 .5 , . Blanchard and Quah(1989) SVAR , B-Q(1989) 2- 3- , Stock and33) , . 157. 3 1990 : 143Watson(2002) .34) Stock and Watson(2002) 1997 ( ) ( ) . , SVAR . ., , 2000 . 2000 . 2000 . 2000 , , . . , 1 .35) , 2000 ., 34) B-Q(1989) , . , Stock and Watson(2002) .35) 1 SVAR . 158. 144 : . . 36) ( 2000 ) .36) . 159. 3 1990 : 145 , , , No. 05~06,, 2005., , , LG, 2001., , , 21 1, , 2007.Amisano, G. and C. Giannini, Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics 2nd ed,Heidelberg, Springer, 1997.Blanchard, O. J. and D. Quah, The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand andSupply Disturbances, American Economic Review, V. 79, 1989, pp.655~673.Blanchard, O. J. and R. Perotti, An Empirical Characterization of the DynamicEffects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output, QuarterlyJournal of Economics, V. 117, 2002, pp.1329~1368.Christiano, L., M. Eichenbaum, and C. Evans, Monetary Policy Shocks: What HaveWe Learned and to What End? 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Stock, Inference in a Nearly Integrated Autoregressive Modelwith Non-normal Innovations, Journal of Econometrics, 1997, pp.269~286.Stanley Fisher, Long-term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optional MoneySupply rule, Journal of Political Economy, 1977, Vol.85, pp.163~190.Stock, J, and M. Watson, Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?, NBERMacroeconomics Annual 2002, pp.159~218. 161. (KDI ) ( )1 1990 . 20 10% . 6 , , 3 . 1990 1 . (Lall and Albaladejo[2004]; Rodrik[2006]; Schott[2006]; Kim et al.[2006] ). , ? ? 1990 () 3 162. 148 : . , 1990 . (import competition), 3 (third market competition), . . . 3 . . . . 1992 16.3% 2006 64.7% . (intermediate inputs) .1)2)1) Lall and Albaladejo(2004), World Bank(2006) .2) , . 163. 4 149 , , , . , , .3) .4) . .5) , , .3) , Lall and Albaladejo(2004) .4) . , (agglomeration economies) . , . Krugman(1998) . .5) World Bank(2006), Lall and Albaladejo(2004) . WorldBank 3 19 , , , . Lall and Albaladejo . 164. 150 : . . , 1990 , . , 1990 .6) . . , , 3 , . . (2006), (2007), (2005) , , ,7) 3 , , .8) Kim et al.(2006) FDI 6) Hahn and Shin(2007) .7) Bernard, Jensen and Schott(2002) . , .8) (2006) , 3 , FDI . 165. 4 151. (2007) FDI FDI , . . . FDI (production fragmentation) , .9) , , . . , . 3 19932003 . 4 , 3 4 FDI . 5 .9) , , (vertical specialization) . , Feenstra andHanson(1996) (outsourcing) . Feenstra(1998) . 166. 152 : 2 , , .1. GDP 80 3 90 . 199197 GDP ( 6.3%) 80(8.4%) , 200006 GDP (4.6%) 90 .10) GDP 90 80 , 90 . GDP , 90 ( 4-1 4-1). GDP , GDP 80 .11) 10) (2007) .11) (++) . 167. 4 153[ 4-1] GDP GDP -20-15-10-505101520251980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006%GDPGDP()< 4-1> GDP (: %)1981~90 1991~97 2000~06GDP 8.4 6.3 4.6GDP 11.4 7.0 6.7 () - 8.3 10.7* 12.5 6.4 2.2 () - 4.2 0.2*: * 2000~03 : (GDP, GDP , ) , ( , ). . ,199495 90 80 . , 168. 154 : -60-50-40-30-20-100102030401980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006% ()[ 4-2] , 90 ., GDP 90 80 , . 90 . 90 80 . . 90 . 169. 4 1552. .12) (1) (2) j j , . , , . ( : domestic importcompetition) (3 : third-marketexport competition) . . . 12) (1) (2) Bernard, Jensen, andSchott(2002) . CI HI DMC , 3 TXC, XCAP XINT . 170. 156 : ( ) ( ) .13) . , , . 1970~80 . (fragmentation of production procedure) .Feenstra(1998) Feenstra and Hanson(2001) (world factoryfloor) . .3. UN Comtrade Database . ( , ) . () () 13) Hummels et al.(1999) UN BEC(Broad Economic Categories) (capital goods), (intermediate goods) (consumption goods) . < 4A-1> . 171. 4 157 , . 3 UN Comtrade Database .14) Schott(2006), Bernard, Jensen, and Schott(2002) (2006) . , (coverage ratio) (intensive) (extensive) .15) 3 .14) . 5 . 5 .15) . Bernard, Jensen, and Schott(2002) (import penetration ratio: ) (robust) , (new varieties) . 172. 158 : 3 . 0 3 1 .16) . . . 17)16) 0.5 (, ) . . .17) < 4A-1> BEC UN BEC SITC . BEC , , BEC 42 53 , . , 173. 4 1594. (1) (2) . < 4-2> 1993~2003 ( ) , < 4-3> (1993~97) (1999~2003) .18) 99% (+) , . , . [ 4-3] . , . - ( , R&D ) (fragmentation) .18) < 4-3> 55 (KSIC)6 3-digit 61 4 3 FDI 6 . FDI KSIC 6 3-digit 6 . 174. 160 : < 4-2> : (1993~2003) Y I (Y)1.000 -0.067 0.075 -0.141 0.295 55 (I)0.716(0.000)1.000 0.002 0.092 -0.448 0.185 55(ln(K/L))0.122(0.375)-0.138(0.314)3.266 0.611 1.682 4.728 55(HI)0.105(0.445)-0.027(0.846)0.470 0.254 0.179 1.342 55(PVSH_CH)-0.541(0.000)-0.551(0.000)0.104 0.114 0.002 0.502 533(THIRD_CH)-0.438(0.001)-0.272(0.046)0.642 0.210 0.119 0.976 54 (XCPA_CH)0.471(0.000)0.386(0.004)0.341 0.434 0.000 1.000 54 (XINT_CH)-0.240(0.080)-0.327(0.016)0.481 0.424 0.000 1.000 54: ( ) p-value. . . , - (structuralchange) . (-) 175. 4 161 Y I (Y)1.000 0.090 0.107 -0.124 0.483 55 (I)0.653(0.000)1.000 0.059 0.144 -0.173 0.631 55(ln(K/L))0.342(0.011)0.255(0.060)3.182 0.571 1.696 4.594 55(HI)0.213(0.119)0.358(0.007)0.437 0.252 0.153 1.404 55(PVSH_CH)-0.477(0.000)-0.427(0.001)0.072 0.100 0.000 0.492 533(THIRD_CH)-0.339(0.012)-0.124(0.372)0.594 0.226 0.085 0.970 54 (XCPA_CH)0.311(0.023)0.358(0.008)0.337 0.434 0.000 1.000 53 (XINT_CH)-0.079(0.576)-0.236(0.088)0.478 0.426 0.000 1.000 53(b) (1999~2003) Y I (Y)1.000 0.082 0.075 -0.096 0.243 55 (I)0.063(0.650)1.000 0.019 0.177 -0.492 0.564 55(ln(K/L))-0.180(0.189)-0.131(0.341)3.376 0.652 1.710 4.878 55(HI)0.063(0.650)-0.193(0.159)0.498 0.250 0.178 1.406 55(PVSH_CH)-0.258(0.062)-0.094(0.501)0.163 0.161 0.005 0.686 533(THIRD_CH)-0.220(0.111)-0.017(0.904)0.721 0.197 0.168 0.989 54 (XCPA_CH)0.646(0.000)0.109(0.431)0.357 0.447 0.000 1.000 54 (XINT_CH)-0.438(0.001)-0.138(0.318)0.465 0.430 0.000 1.000 54: ( ) p-value.< 4-3> (a) (1993~97) 176. 162 : [ 4-3] . ( 4-3).19) 3 . < 4-3> 3 . . 19) , 3, , [ 4A-1][ 4A-8] . 177. 4 163 ( ) . - ? (+) . . . . , . , .3 (1) (2) . 1993~2003 178. 164 : .1. (1993~2003) (1) (2) < 4-4> < 4-5> .20) () , . . 3 () . (2) 3 . ( (3) (4)) 20) . 1993~2003 . 1 , 1 , . (volatility) . . 1 . 179. 4 165 (1) (2) (3) (4)(ln(K/L))-0.0152(0.0171)-0.0217(0.0178)-0.0032(0.0155)-0.0131(0.0170)(HI)0.0014(0.0505)0.0172(0.0523)0.0135(0.0406)0.0224(0.0396)(PVSH_CH)-0.3925***(0.0818)-0.3053***(0.0840)-0.2497**(0.1036)-0.2552**(0.1141)3(THIRD_CH)-0.0984**(0.0448)-0.0613(0.0425)-0.0626(0.0425)(XCPA_CH)0.0586**(0.0245)0.0824**(0.0337)(XINT_CH)0.0370(0.0332)0.1558***(0.0490)0.2233***(0.0635)0.1152(0.0695)0.1188(0.0717) 53 53 53 53R20.26 0.30 0.38 0.38: ( ) (heteroskedasticity-adjusted standard error) , ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10% .< 4-4> : (1993~2003) . 3 ., () . 180. 166 : (1) (2) (3) (4)(ln(K/L))-0.0724***(0.0201)-0.0750***(0.0212)-0.0665***(0.0237)-0.0662***(0.0228)(HI)-0.0523(0.0426)-0.0460(0.0446)-0.0477(0.0402)-0.0479(0.0427)(PVSH_CH)-0.6205***(0.1549)-0.5856***(0.1706)-0.5599***(0.1854)-0.5597***(0.1870)3(THIRD_CH)-0.0394(0.0531)-0.0222(0.0520)-0.0222(0.0525)(XCPA_CH)0.0271(0.0229)0.0264(0.0328)(XINT_CH)-0.0010(0.0323)0.3222***(0.0755)0.3492***(0.0887)0.2992***(0.1051)0.2991***(0.1053) 53 53 53 53R20.50 0.50 0.50 0.49: ( ) (heteroskedasticity-adjusted standard error), ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10% .< 4-5> : (1993~2003) () , . . 181. 4 167 .2. < 4-6> < 4-7> (Da Db) (interaction term) .21) , . 3 . (2) 3 99% , (3) (4) . . , (3) (4) . , 21) subsample . subsample . , subsample .subsample < 4A-2> < 4A-3> . 182. 168 : (1) (2) (3) (4)Db (ln(K/L))0.0007(0.0190)0.0013(0.0202)0.0310*(0.0180)0.0149(0.0190)Da (ln(K/L))-0.0089(0.0145)-0.0188(0.0139)0.0024(0.0116)-0.0067(0.0129)Db (HI)0.0332(0.0614)0.0558(0.0606)0.0473(0.0476)0.0640(0.0470)Da (HI)0.0309(0.0540)0.0267(0.0553)0.0066(0.0354)0.0132(0.0331)Db (PVSH_CH)-0.5227***(0.1175)-0.3803***(0.1188)-0.3054**(0.1245)-0.3257**(0.1481)Da (PVSH_CH)-0.1059*(0.0623)-0.1188(0.0761)-0.0711(0.0745)-0.0713(0.0777)Db 3(THIRD_CH)-0.1213***(0.0461)-0.0731(0.0493)-0.0737(0.0494)Da 3(THIRD_CH)-0.0144(0.0573)0.0353(0.0460)0.0312(0.0467)Db (XCPA_CH)0.0554(0.0400)0.0920**(0.0456)Da (XCPA_CH)0.1093***(0.0237)0.1313***(0.0356)Db (XINT_CH)0.0568(0.0434)Da (XINT_CH)0.0356(0.0368)0.1123**(0.0474)0.1608***(0.0533)0.0176(0.0596)0.0235(0.0610) 106 106 106 106R20.14 0.16 0.30 0.30: Db 1, 0 , Da 1, 0 , ( ) (heteroskedasticity-adjusted standard error) , ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10% .< 4-6> : (1993~97) (1999~2003) 183. 4 169 (1) (2) (3) (4)Db (ln(K/L))-0.0607*(0.0332)-0.0566(0.0347)-0.0419(0.0381)-0.0483(0.0441)Da (ln(K/L))-0.0512*(0.0281)-0.0623**(0.0301)-0.0498(0.0341)-0.0370(0.0386)Db (HI)0.0445(0.0963)0.0667(0.0972)0.0646(0.0879)0.0712(0.0913)Da (HI)-0.1303*(0.0724)-0.1389*(0.0771)-0.1462**(0.0735)-0.1575**(0.0784)Db (PVSH_CH)-0.6414***(0.1537)-0.4882***(0.1617)-0.4341**(0.1753)-0.4421**(0.1869)Da (PVSH_CH)-0.2063(0.1546)-0.2447(0.1878)-0.2227(0.1923)-0.2242(0.1919)Db 3(THIRD_CH)-0.1239(0.0821)-0.0975(0.0845)-0.0979(0.0853)Da 3(THIRD_CH)0.0152(0.1098)0.0451(0.1193)0.0465(0.1202)Db (XCPA_CH)0.0444(0.0423)0.0586(0.0567)Da (XCPA_CH)0.0460(0.0536)0.0077(0.0515)Db (XINT_CH)0.0221(0.0668)Da (XINT_CH)-0.0593(0.0605)0.2724***(0.1007)0.3106***(0.1178)0.2306(0.1479)0.2334(0.1491) 106 106 106 106R20.13 0.13 0.13 0.11: Db 1, 0 , Da 1, 0 , ( ) (heteroskedasticity-adjusted standard error) , ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10% .< 4-7> : (1993~97) (1999~2003) 184. 170 : . . < 4-7> . . 3 . . , .22)22) 99% (+) (outlier) . < 4-6> (3) (4) Da (XCAP_CH) Partial Residual Plot [4A-9] [ 4A-10]. , Da (XCAP_CH) , < 4-6> (3) (4) Da (XCAP_CH) . 185. 4 1714 3 (robust) .1. 3 3 3 , 3 . 3 World Bank(2007) 3 .23) < 4-8> . 3 , 323) , j t 3 : . . 186. 172 : (1) (2) (3) (4)Db (PVSH_CH)-0.3257**(0.1481)-0.4345**(0.1820)Da (PVSH_CH)-0.0713(0.0777)-0.0515(0.0791)Db (VSH_CH)-0.2927**(0.1436)-0.3855**(0.1624)Da (VSH_CH)-0.0647(0.0754)-0.0437(0.0773)Db 3(THIRD_CH)-0.0737(0.0494)-0.0737(0.0474)Da 3(THIRD_CH)0.0312(0.0467)0.0312(0.0464)Db 3(WB_CH)-1.6231(2.1393)-1.1197(1.9978)Da 3(WB_CH)0.8599(0.8564)0.8946(0.8431)Db (XCPA_CH)0.0920**(0.0456)0.0897*(0.0463)0.0959**(0.0435)0.0927**(0.0443)Da (XCPA_CH)0.1313***(0.0356)0.1319***(0.0358)0.1313***(0.0338)0.1325***(0.0340)Db (XINT_CH)0.0568(0.0434)0.0555(0.0428)0.0548(0.0435)0.0539(0.0424)Da (XINT_CH)0.0356(0.0368)0.0352(0.0369)0.0366(0.0370)0.0364(0.0370)0.0235(0.0610)0.0175(0.0617)0.0061(0.0444)-0.0043(0.0447) 106 106 106 106R20.30 0.29 0.29 0.28: Db 1, 0 , Da 1, 0 , ( ) (heteroskedasticity-adjusted standard error) , ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10% .lnCI HI .< 4-8> I: (1993~97) (1999~2003) 187. 4 173 . 3 , . < 4-9> . 3 , , . 3 3 .2. 3 () () (, ) .3 . , 188. 174 : (1) (2) (3) (4)Db (PVSH_CH)-0.4421**(0.1869)-0.5374***(0.2008)Da (PVSH_CH)-0.2242(0.1919)-0.2691*(0.1501)Db (VSH_CH)-0.3963**(0.1835)-0.4834***(0.1799)Da (VSH_CH)-0.2416(0.1850)-0.2817*(0.1476)Db 3(THIRD_CH)-0.0979(0.0853)-0.0991(0.0856)Da 3(THIRD_CH)0.0465(0.1202)0.0567(0.1209)Db 3(WB_CH)-0.9957(2.3722)-0.4050(2.2476)Da 3(WB_CH)4.8734(3.5449)5.0762(3.5822)Db (XCPA_CH)0.0586(0.0567)0.0551(0.0577)0.0689(0.0543)0.0641(0.0551)Da (XCPA_CH)0.0077(0.0515)0.0065(0.0509)-0.0028(0.0580)-0.0046(0.0581)Db (XINT_CH)0.0221(0.0668)0.0204(0.0674)0.0191(0.0651)0.0182(0.0658)Da (XINT_CH)-0.0593(0.0605)-0.0611(0.0598)-0.0577(0.0629)-0.0596(0.0624)0.2334(0.1491)0.2273(0.1492)0.1647(0.1018)0.1572(0.1007) 106 106 106 106R20.11 0.11 0.14 0.14: Db 1, 0 , Da 1, 0 , ( ) (heteroskedasticity-adjusted standard error) , ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10% . lnCI HI .< 4-9> : (1993~97) (1999~2003) 189. 4 175 .24) 3 ( ) . UN BEC 4 . < 4-10> < 4-11> 3 (XCPA_CH) (XC_CH) (XPA_CH) . < 4-10> , 99% . . [ 4-4] .24) , , . 190. 176 : (1) (2) (3)Db (PVSH_CH)-0.3054**(0.1245)-0.3799***(0.1232)-0.3276***(0.1194)Da (PVSH_CH)-0.0711(0.0745)-0.1198(0.0781)-0.0651(0.0640)Db 3(THIRD_CH)-0.0731(0.0493)-0.1124**(0.0474)-0.0891*(0.0465)Da 3(WB_CH)0.0353(0.0460)-0.0034(0.0607)0.0059(0.0510)Db (XCPA_CH)0.0554(0.0400)Da (XCPA_CH)0.1093***(0.0237)Db (XC_CH)-0.0083(0.0320)Da (XC_CH)0.0575(0.0396)Db (XPA_CH)0.0808(0.0621)Da (XPA_CH)0.1244***(0.0233)0.0176(0.0596)0.1373**(0.0655)0.0765(0.0543) 106 106 106R20.30 0.16 0.29: Db 1, 0 , Da 1, 0 , ( ) (heteroskedasticity-adjusted standard error) , ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10% .lnCI HI .< 4-10> I: (1993~97) (1999~2003) 191. 4 177 (1) (2) (3)Db (PVSH_CH)-0.4341**(0.1753)-0.5032***(0.1654)-0.4329**(0.1701)Da (PVSH_CH)-0.2227(0.1923)-0.2477(0.1858)-0.2425(0.1883)Db 3(THIRD_CH)-0.0975(0.0845)-0.1109(0.0820)-0.1045(0.0749)Da 3(WB_CH)0.0451(0.1193)0.0282(0.1052)0.0373(0.1143)Db (XCPA_CH)0.0444(0.0423)Da (XCPA_CH)0.0460(0.0536)Db (XC_CH)-0.0453(0.0431)Da (XC_CH)0.1011*(0.0534)Db (XPA_CH)0.1000*(0.0547)Da (XPA_CH)-0.0064(0.0814)0.2306(0.1479)0.2830**(0.1242)0.2641*(0.1347) 106 106 106R20.13 0.14 0.14: Db 1, 0 , Da 1, 0 , ( ) (heteroskedasticity-adjusted standard error) , ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10% .lnCI HI .< 4-11> II: (1993~97) (1999~2003) 192. 178 : [ 4-4] [ 4-4] , . . . < 4-11> .3. (FDI) < 4-6> < 4-7> 193. 4 179 . , Kimet al.(2006) FDI . FDI (fragmentation) (proxy) FDI . FDI . FDI (FDIY_CH), FDI (FDII_CH) < 4-12> < 4-13> .25) FDI FDI . FDI (-) , . (fragmentation) Kim et al.(2002) FDI .25) FDI . FDIY_CH FDIY_CH 10,000 . 194. 180 : < 4-12> FDI: (1993~97) (1999~2003) (1) (2) (3)Db (PVSH_CH)-0.3257**(0.1481)-0.2593**(0.1275)-0.2575*(0.1464)Da (PVSH_CH)-0.0713(0.0777)-0.0686(0.0717)-0.0476(0.0837)Db 3(THIRD_CH)-0.0737(0.0494)-0.0740(0.0496)-0.0767(0.0504)Da 3(THIRD_CH)0.0312(0.0467)0.0396(0.0449)0.0383(0.0447)Db (XCPA_CH)0.0920**(0.0456)0.0474(0.0424)0.0506(0.0409)Da (XCPA_CH)0.1313***(0.0356)0.1051***(0.0240)0.1048***(0.0245)Db (XINT_CH)0.0568(0.0434)Da (XINT_CH)0.0356(0.0368)Db FDI(FDIY_CH)-0.8912(0.5800)Da FDI(FDIY_CH)-0.9230(0.5842)Db FDI(FDII_CH)-0.0111(0.0075)Da FDI(FDII_CH)-0.0166(0.0133)0.0235(0.0610)0.0543(0.0657)0.0425(0.0641) 106 106 106R20.30 0.30 0.29: Db 1, 0 , Da 1, 0 , ( ) (heteroskedasticity-adjusted standard error) , ***, **, * 1%, 5%, 10% . lnCI HI . 195. 4 181< 4-13> FDI: (1993~97) (1999~2003) (1) (2) (3)Db (PVSH_CH)-0.4421**(0.1869)-0.3188*(0.1763)-0.2857(0.2024)Da (PVSH_CH)-0.2242(0.1919)-0.2301(0.1904)-0.1937(0.2224)Db 3(THIRD_CH)-0.0979(0.0853)-0.0832(0.0859)-0.0995(0.0849)Da 3(THIRD_CH)0.0465(0.1202)0.0233(0.1223)0.0424(0.1216)Db (XCPA_CH)0.0586(0.0567)0.0348(0.0446)0.0345(0.0434)Da (XCPA_CH)0.0077(0.0515)0.0414(0.0538)0.0379(0.0531)Db (XINT_CH)0.0221(0.0668)Da (XINT_CH)-0.0593(0.0605)Db FDI(FDIY_CH)-1.9384**(0.8735)Da FDI(FDIY_CH)0.3474(1.3099)Db FDI(FDII_CH)-0.0324**(0.0130)Da FDI(FDII_CH)-0.0220(0.0300)0.2334(0.1491)0.2632*(0.1475)0.2789*(0.1453) 106 106 106R20.11 0.12 0.12: Db 1, 0 , Da 1, 0 , ( ) (heteroskedasticity-adjusted standard error) , ***, **,* 1%, 5%, 10% .lnCI HI . 196. 182 : 5 . . , . ., 3 . , ., , . (fragmentation of production procedure) . . . 197. 4 183 . , . , . . .26) , . . , . . 26) Baldwin(2006) , . Baldwin(2006) . 198. 184 : . , . 199. 4 185 , , , 6, 2006-07, 2006., , 5, 2007., , 2005-04, 2005., 1990 , , 10, 2006-07, 2007., , 2, 2007.Baldwin, R, Managing the Noodle Bowl: the Fragility of East Asian Regionalism,Center for Policy Research (CEPR) Discussion Paper 5561, Lonson:CEPR, 2006.Bernard, Andrew, J. Bradford Jensen, and Peter K. Schott, Survival of the Best Fit:Exposure to Low-Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of US ManufacturingPlants, NBER Working Paper 9170, 2