Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
世界のエネルギー市場の転換と石炭石炭火力発電輸出への公的支援に関する有識者ファクト検討会
黒﨑 美穂
April 1, 2020
1
Houston
New York
San Francisco
MunichParis
Beijing
Seoul
Hong KongNew Delhi
Singapore
Sydney
TokyoMilanZurich
London
São Paulo
Washington DC
ローカルとグローバルの両方の観点から
250BNEFプロフェッショナルは世界17拠点に配属されている
* ブルームバーグL.P.では世界176拠点、従業員は19000人
2
BNEF Coverage最先端技術コモディティ セクター
デジタル産業技術
水素
2
CCUS
バイオ燃料
石油
ガス＆LNG
ケミカル
石炭
金属
電力
農業
企業戦略・予測 経済・ファイナンス サステナビリティ コンシューマー政策・規制
次世代交通システム
次世代・飛行機自動運転電気自動車 モビリティサービス
次世代・船舶
電力市場
風力太陽光 分散型電源 電力システム・ネットワーク
蓄電池
産業＆ビル
省エネ３D印刷&グリーンマニュファ クチャリング
低炭素の熱＆冷却
コンポジットバイオプラスチック
循環型経済
農業
土地と水の利用
農薬＆バイオテクノロジー
食品廃棄物のマネジメント
農業の IT化 & サプライチェーン
代替肉 &食糧需要
カーボン
3
クリーンエネルギー
4
Source: BloombergNEFSource: BloombergNEF
Clean energy investments by region Clean energy investments by technology
クリーンエネルギー投資
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
$bn
AMER
EMEA
APAC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
$bn
Other
Energy smarttechnologies
Solar
Wind
クリーンエネルギー
5
Source: BloombergNEF
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Cumulative GW
Small-scalePV
Utility-scalePV
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
風力、太陽光導入量が2018年にテラワットを超える
Global wind and solar installations
クリーンエネルギー
6
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
$/kWh
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
2008
20
09
20
10
2011
20
12
20
13
2014
20
15
20
16
2017
20
18
euro / W
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
$/W
Solar PV module prices Onshore wind turbine
prices
Lithium-ion battery prices
技術の革新によりコストが低減
Source: BloombergNEF
-94% since 2008
-37% since 2008
.
-85% since 2010
クリーンエネルギー
7
電力コスト
8
Source: BloombergNEF
米国で風力と太陽光がガスよりも安い電源Q1 2019
27 41 38 3864
195
4064 74 75
170
251
59 65 76 76
161
344
114
196
416
272
180
431
0
100
200
300
400
500
Onshore
wind
Tracking
PV
Large
hydro
CCGT Coal Nuclear Onshore
wind +
storage
Non-
tracking PV
+ storage
Demand
Response
OCGT Utility-scale
battery (4h)
Pumped
hydro
$/MWh (nominal)Bulk generation
Dispatchable Peaking
Flexible generation
Variable
電力コスト
9
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Reflective of the cheapest benchmark project for each technology and market
2014年の世界：化石燃料の発電所が一番安い
Most competitive source of new bulk generation 2014
電力コスト
10
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Reflective of the cheapest benchmark project for each technology and market
2019年の世界：再エネが最も安い国が世界の2/3
Most competitive source of new bulk generation 2019
電力コスト
11
Source: BloombergNEFSource: BloombergNEF
再エネの新設 vs 化石燃料の新設 再エネの新設 vs 化石燃料の既設
日本: 平準化発電コスト
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
$/MWh (real 2018)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
$/MWh (real 2018)
電力コスト
12
長期エネルギー見通し
13
グローバル：2050年に7割が非化石電源
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Historical world
power generationNEO 2019 power
Coal
GasOil
Hydro
NuclearWind
SolarOther
62%
renewables
31% fossil fuels
48% wind and solar
長期エネルギー見通し
14
Total installed capacity, 2018 Total installed capacity, 2050
グローバル：新設容量の77%は再生可能エネルギー
Coal 29%
Gas 20%Peaker gas 4%
Nuclear5%
Hydro17%
Onshore wind 8%
Utility-scale PV
5%
6,957GW
Coal 5%
Gas 10%
Peaker gas 7%
Hydro 8%
Onshore wind 16%
Utility-scale PV
29%
Small-scale PV
11%
19,021GW
長期エネルギー見通し
15
2050年の電源構成の半分が風力太陽光でも2度目標には届かず
2 degrees (NEO
2019)
NEO 2019
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2012 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MtCO2e
Global power sector emissions
NEO2019
On track
しかし、2030年まで2℃目標を達成する見込み
2050年までに新たな脱炭素技術が必要
長期エネルギー見通し
16
世界の石炭火力発電
17
Source: BloombergNEF
石炭は安価な再エネと調整力のあるガス火力に置き換わる
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20 30 40 50
China
20 30 40 50
India
20 30 40 50
Rest of APAC
20 30 40 50
Americas
20 30 40 50
Europe
20 30 40 50
META
Regional growth profiles for power sector coal consumption, rebased to zero in 2018
世界の石炭火力発電
18
東南アジアの石炭火力発電
19
Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), BloombergNEFSource: National Load Dispatch Centre, BloombergNEF
設備容量、2018年 政府のエネルギー計画 (PDP 7)
ベトナムエネルギー計画
40%
37%
14%
3%3% 3%
48GW
HydroCoalGasOilImportOthers 26
48 55 9
15 19
18
20 22 4
12
60
97
130
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2020 2025 2030
GW
Import
Nuclear
Small hydro
Biomass
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Gas
Coal
東南アジアの石炭火力発電
20
インドネシアでの稼働済みと計画中石炭火力発電所ー民間が主流
Source: BloombergNEF, RUPTL 2019-28, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara annual report. Private sector projects also include projects developed under
the independent power producer route by subsidiaries of PT PLN
0.6
4.74.0
2.0
1.1
2.4
1.61.3
0.5
1.5
5.8
3.5
2.2
3.5
4.3
2.11.4
0.51.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
GW
Historical Pipeline44% 56%
Private State-owned
81% 19%
Private State-owned
2010-18
2019-28
東南アジアの石炭火力発電
21
インドネシアとベトナムへの資金提供者は石炭火力ファイナンスのフェーズアウトを進めている
Source: BloombergNEF, official press releases from banks. Note: CCS – carbon capture and storage.
47 46 4641
37
29
4
4
4
2
4
7
1 1 2 2 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Number of lenders
Phase out coal exposure by a certain year
Stop funding new coal power projects
Only fund coal power project with CCS
Only fund ultra-supercritical technology
Only fund super-critical and ultra super-critical technology
No coal phase out strategy
東南アジアの石炭火力発電
22
世論調査：インドネシア、フィリピン、ベトナムの市民が必要とする再エネ
Source: E3G. Note: ID- Indonesia, PH- Philippines, VN- Vietnam.
89%
78%
65%
8%
17%
28%
3%
5%
7%
VN
PH
ID
Renewable energy Fossil fuels Don't know
• 送電網の整備も課題
東南アジアの石炭火力発電
23
Copyright
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2020. This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg Finance L.P. in connection with BloombergNEF. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of BloombergNEF.
Disclaimer
The BloombergNEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, in providing the
service/information, believe that the information it uses comes from reliable sources, but do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information, which is subject to change without notice, and nothing in this document shall be construed as such a guarantee. The statements in thisservice/document reflect the current judgment of the authors of the relevant articles or features, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg FinanceL.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their
affiliates (“Bloomberg”). Bloomberg disclaims any liability arising from use of this document, its contents and/or this service. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment orother strategy (e.g., whether or not
to “buy”, “sell”, or “hold” an investment). The information available through this service is not based on consideration of asubscriber’s individual circumstances and should not be considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. You should determine on your own whether you agree with the content. This service should not be construed as tax or accounting advice or as a service designed to facilitate any subscriber’s compliance with its tax, accounting or
other legal obligations. Employees involved in this service may hold positions in the companies mentioned in the services/information.
The data included in these materials are for illustrative purposes only. The BLOOMBERG TERMINAL service and Bloomberg data products (the “Services”) are owned and distributed by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) except (i) in Argentina, Australia and certain jurisdictions in the Pacific islands, Bermuda, China, India,
Japan, Korea and New Zealand, where Bloomberg L.P. and its subsidiaries (“BLP”) distribute these products, and (ii) in Singapore and the jurisdictions serviced by Bloomberg’s Singapore office, where a subsidiary of BFLP distributes these products. BLP provides BFLP and its subsidiaries with global marketing and operational
support and service. Certain features, functions, products and services are available only to sophisticated investors and only where permitted. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy of prices or other information in the Services. Nothing in the Services shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates, or as investment advice or recommendations by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates of an investment strategy or
whether or not to “buy”, “sell” or “hold” an investment. Information available via the Services should not be considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. The following are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries: BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG
ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG MARKETS, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG TERMINAL and BLOOMBERG.COM. Absence of any trademark or service mark from this list does not waive Bloomberg’s intellectual property rights in that name, mark or logo.All rights reserved. © 2020 Bloomberg.
Copyright and disclaimer
Coverage.
Clean energy
Advanced transport
Commodities
Digital industry
BloombergNEF (BNEF) is a leading provider
of primary research on clean energy,
advanced transport, digital industry,
innovative materials, and commodities.
BNEF’s global team leverages the world’s
most sophisticated data sets to create clear
perspectives and in-depth forecasts that
frame the financial, economic and policy
implications of industry-transforming trends
and technologies.
BNEF research and analysis is accessible via
web and mobile platforms, as well as on the
Bloomberg Terminal.
Client enquiries:
Bloomberg Terminal: press <Help> key twice
Email: [email protected]
Learn more:
about.bnef.com | @BloombergNEF
