LEV A. PUSTIL’NIK 1, GREGORY YOM DIN

2

1- Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center, Tel Aviv University & Israel Space Agency, Israel2- Golan Research Institute, Haifa University, Israel

Part 1: Solar Physics 223: 335–356, 2004.Part 2: Solar Physics 224: 473–481, 2004.

ВОЗМОЖНОЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ КОСМИЧЕНСКОЙ ПОГОДЫ ВОЗМОЖНОЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ КОСМИЧЕНСКОЙ ПОГОДЫ НА ЗЕРНОВЫЕ РЫНКИ: ВЧЕРА, СЕГОДНЯ, ЗАВТРАНА ЗЕРНОВЫЕ РЫНКИ: ВЧЕРА, СЕГОДНЯ, ЗАВТРА

I. History of the problemHistory of the problem1. Forerunner (“optimistic”) period (1700-1880)Jonathan Swift (1726) - father of the European satire – Gulliver in

LAPUTA – described mass-phobia of sunspot influence on decreasing of solar irradiance and next shortage of crop – obstruction in Royal Society.

William Hershel (1801) –father of European Astronomy - first compared sunspot data and prices data of Adam Smith :”five prolonged periods of few sunspots coincident with costly wheat” – ridicule title in Royal Society-”King of Absurdi”

William Stanley Jevons (1875) – (father of Neoclassical Economic Theory and of Economical Cycles) suggested that: “11-year sunspot cycle synchronize stock panics by wheat prices drop” and made first forecast with terrible sequences Great Britain economics – effect of mass psychology of panic in stock speculation.

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William Jevons and financial panics

yellow arrow - panics, blue line – sunspot number

2. “Pessimistic” period

Reasons of the mass skepticism is very simple: solar irradiance is “solar constant” (ΔF/F<0.1%) and does not change with sunspots

3. Modern rehabilitations of the problem Magnetic component of solar activity as new factor of influence on space weather:• Sunspots => coronal heating& flares => space weather (solar wind, cosmic ray, magnetosphere) =>>=>> weather (cloudiness, NorthAtlanticOscillations, …) =>> shortage of crop =>>> market reaction on deficit of

unique and limited product (food)=>> Price Bursts initiated by Space Weather Abnormalities

• Nonlinearity properties (catastrophically like reaction) are possible in several transitions of this chain: “Space weather – Earth weather”, “Earth weather abnormalities – crop’ shortage”, “price reaction on food (wheat) shortage”. This non-linearity (threshold type transition) is source of possible price burst reaction.

• “It is possible in principle!” does not means that it has place in real life! What is necessary and sufficient combination of condition, what will be enough for price sensitivity to space weather variations?

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WHEAT PRICE may work (in principle) as possible SENSITIVE PROXY to space weather influences on the Earth weather!!!

II. Illustration of main elements of proposed causal chain

• First elementFirst element (“solar activity – space weather”) is now undoubted:

– Sunspot => solar corona => solar wind modulation =>

=> cosmic ray/magnetosphere modulation

• Second elementSecond element: COSMIC RAY and MAGNETOSPHERE influence on the EARTH WEATHER (data of last decade!):

– CR influence on cloudiness (inhomogeneous in time and position on the Earth and in height of atmosphere)

– Correlation of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with “aa” , “pc” indexes of magnetosphere activity – possible influence on global atmospheric circulation

• Third elementThird element: WHEAT PRODUCTION in regions of high risk

agriculture (SENSITIVE TO CLOUDINESS, RAINS, DROUGHTS,…)

will have threshold type sensitivity to weather change (short time weather

abnormalities may lead to catastrophic drop of crop (first of all – wheat).

• Fourth elementFourth element: A WHEAT MARKET with limited external supply

has threshold type SENSITIVITY TO WHEAT/FOOD PRODUCTION

with boundary states where small changes in wheat supply could lead to

bursts of prices.

Magnetosphere (aa) reaction on solar activity

Cosmic Ray flux (CR) reaction on solar activity

CR-Cloudiness correlation above North Atlantic

NAO <0

COAR-208

NAO >0

Three Necessary Conditions for realization of scenario “space weather – earth Three Necessary Conditions for realization of scenario “space weather – earth weather-crop-prices”:weather-crop-prices”:1. Location inLocation in region of high sensitivity to Space Weather-Earth Weather influence (HSEW-SW).2. Location inLocation in high risk agriculture zone (HRAZ) sensitive to weather (rains, droughts, cloudiness) 3. Location inLocation in region with high market sensitivity to deficit of crop (limitation or absence of external supply or high transportation expenses on this supply).

Problem of identification of effect caused by strong background variations of another nature, instability of

sensitivity of region in time and location, time lag between different elements of influences, …) .

Three possible methods for identification of influences caused by space weather-solar activity:a) Comparison of distributions of intervals between price’ bursts and sunspot minimums b) Price asymmetry for Maximum and Minimum states of solar activity

c) Dummy variable analysis

First Attempt:

Past time: Medieval England

1.Location in North Atlantic region of high “space weather-cloudiness” sensitivity

2.High risk wheat agriculture – catastrophically sensitivity to summer rains in Medieval England

3.Isolated wheat market of England as island with very limited external supply from Continental Europe

Expected type of price reaction (minimum of solar activity>maximum CR flux>maximal cloudiness and summer rains> drop of the crop>price burst

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Hystogram of the Sunspot Min-Min intervals

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1580-1700 year (Maunder Minimum)

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Histogram of Wheat Price Bursts Intervals

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Database Median Average Standard deviation

Min-Min intervals for

Sunspots

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Intervals between bursts of

Wheat Price

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Wheat Price Assymetry for MaMax-Min state

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Histogram of intervals between minimums of sunspot number

Histogram of intervals between wheat price bursts

Wheat Price asymmetry during Maunder minim (white symbols – prices in maximum states of solar

activity, black symbols – prices in minimums of solar activity). For all period prices in minimums solar

activity more then in maximums:

100% MAX-Min asymmetry

Confidence level of coincidence of mean intervals between price bursts and

sunspot cycle >99.9%

Wheat Price bursts in Meddle Age England Price difference for maximal and

minimal states of solar activity in studied period -100% asymmetry

In Past-1: Manifestations of Space Weather influence in Wheat Manifestations of Space Weather influence in Wheat

Prices of Medieval England (Rogers: 1250-1715)Prices of Medieval England (Rogers: 1250-1715)

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• 100 wheat markets of 14 countries of Europe for 600 years from Major World Crop Areas Database.

• For detailed analysis we used dummy variable analysis from Suits D. (1957) as most appropriate to our case. As resulted parameter we use confidence level of reliability of connection between solar activity and wheat markets reactions. We used for our analysis specific period 1590-1702 of small ice period in Europe (covered famous Maunder minimum of solar activity).

Significance level of Min-Max years of solar activities for different wheat markets in 1590-1702

Country City Significance as P-value Min SA Max SA

England London 0.0001 0.0001 England Exeter

Netherlands Arnhem 0.3839 0.3488

Netherlands Leiden 0.0428 0.5699 Belgium Bruges 0.1773 0.0129 France Douai 0.0756 0.0289 France Paris 0.4138 0.1619 France Toulouse 0.8563 0.4170 France Angers 0.3227 0.2953 France Beziers 0.9581 0.7929 France Grenoble 0.7310 0.5903 France Strasbourg 0.4748 0.7297

France Aix en

Provance 0.6434 0.9307

Germany Cologne 0.9546 0.1395 Germany Wels 0.2881 0.1161

Germany Wels 0.3126 0.1310

Italy Bassano 0.5565 0.0186 Italy Siena 0.6837 0.8518 Italy Naples 0.2190 0.0085 Italy Udine 0.6889 0.0695 Spain Valence 0.0620 0.6130

Map of the Europe with markets, sensitive to space weather (marked by stars). For case of high reliability of connection between minimums of solar activity and wheat prices we used red marks with size proportional to confidence level (London, Exeter-England; Leiden-Netherlands); for high sensitivity to maximums of solar activity (Napoly, Bassano-Italy) we used yellow stars.

Type of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather depends on climate of the studied market: markets close to North Atlantic with weather controlled by NAO and high level of cloudiness - rains (England, Netherlands) the most unfavorable state for wheat production produced by minimal state of solar activity; and in opposite, for markets controlled by hot torrid climate of North Africa (South Italy, Spain) market are more sensitive to solar maximal activity

Most part of the European markets are absolutely indifferent to solar activity state, what is expected result of action of one from 3 factors: location in region of low sensitivity of local weather to space weather, non-critical state of wheat agriculture with large resource of stability to weather abnormalities in this regions, and access to external wheat suppliers suppressed markets sensitivity to deficit of local crop.

99.9%

In Past-2: Identification of the regions, with wheat markets sensitive to space weather in past.

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Is Space Weather influence on Wheat Prices object only for historical interest or

it has place in present timein present time in spite of globalization and technological progress?

Wheat Prices Assymetry relative sunspot Maximum-Minimum state

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Durum area in North Dakota (3% of USA square=70% durum)

Example: Wheat (durum) Price Asymmetry for MAX-MIN states of solar activity is reliable with high confidence level >97.5 % in USA even in our time (1910-1992). Possibly, it is unexpected result of extremely high concentration of main durum crop in small area (3% of USA territory in North Dakota produce 70% of all crop) This location is zone with high sensitivity to North Atlantic Oscillation effects.

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Famines, mortality and sunspots: Past Time in Iceland and Present –Future Time in Africa

Famines in Africa

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Normalysed solar activity with Livestock reduce events in space of normalised phase of solar activity (probability of random realisation

of observed distribution in phase space is lower: P < (1/3)6<10-3

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Iceland 1700-2000 years: Livestook Reduction, Feedstuff deficite,

Human Population Declines (from Daniel Vassey, 1991) and Sunspots number

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Conclusions Conclusions on possibleon possible influence of the space weather through the Earth influence of the space weather through the Earth

Weather in their Earth wheat production and pricesWeather in their Earth wheat production and prices

PAST TIME and PRESENT TIME: Space Weather influence on the wheat market through the earth weather modulation

had place in the past and has place in present time in the selected regions where all 3 necessary conditions were and are satisfied.

FUTURE (or possible effects of the Global warming / fast climate change on the possible sensitivity of agriculture production to space weather influence.

• Global warming observed last decades may change drastically agriculture conditions

on main part of the Earth. The areas, what was in the past far from “threshold state” of the sensitivity to weather state will change agriculture production, during short historical time interval may change its state to state of the “high risk agriculture zone”.

• Evidently, that for these “high risk regions” we may wait increasing of sensitivity of wheat/agriculture markets to external factors (space weather/solar activity) modulated cloudiness, rainy, cyclone circulation and other.

• From the other side, the regions of high sensitivity to space weather may change its state or in “unfit for agriculture generally” with catastrophic sequences for population, or, in opposite to change its state to favorable for stable agriculture activity (it dependence on the sign of global changes)

Possible solution – Joseph’ Strategy in Ancient Egypt!Who is warned – he is armed!

More detailed analysis of expected change in sensitivity of local markets to space weather in result of global warming and climate change (with shift of numerous agriculture regions to “high weather risk state” is matter of detailed analysis which will be present in the next publication.

References."INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE STATE OF THE WHEAT

MARKET IN MEDIEVAL ENGLAND", LEV PUSTIL’NIK and GREGORY YOM DIN, Solar Physics 223: 335–356, 2004.© 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers

"SPACE CLIMATE MANIFESTATION IN EARTH PRICES – FROM MEDIEVAL ENGLAND UP TO MODERN U.S.A.", LEV PUSTIL’NIK and GREGORY YOM DIN, Solar Physics, 224: 473–481 © Springer 2005

Famines in Africa

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y = 0.3281*N

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Prices fatPrices leanAccumulated profitLinear (Accumulated profit)

What may it help us ? Who is warned – he is armed! Simulation of "Josef strategy" for small ice period 1600-1703:(Josef interpretation of Pharaoh dream about 7 good kine (cows) and 7 thin and ill kine (cows)

as "seven good years and... seven empty ears blasted with the east wind shall be seven years of famine” – TANAKH-BIBLE, Genesis, 41/26-27) and the next market regulation prevented catastrophic sequences of seven years of famine for Egypt people.

back

ИКИ-2010

Gulliver's Travels by Jonathan Swift, 1726

PART III. A VOYAGE TO LAPUTA, BALNIBARBI, LUGGNAGG, GLUBBDUBDRIB, AND

JAPAN. These People are under continual Disquietudes, never enjoying a Minute's Peace of Mind; and their Disturbances proceed from Causes which very little affect the rest of Mortals. Their Apprehensions arise from several Changes they dread in the Celestial Bodies. For Instance; that the Earth by the continual Approaches of the Sun towards it, must in Course of Time be absorbed or swallowed up. That the Face of the Sun will by Degrees be encrusted with its own Effluvia, and give no more Light to the World (Hershel, 1801) That, the Earth very narrowly escaped a Brush from the Tail of the last Comet, which would have infallibly reduced it to Ashes; and that the next, which they have calculated for One and Thirty Years hence, will probably destroy us. For, if in its Perihelion it should approach within a certain Degree of the Sun, (as by their Calculations they have Reason to dread) it will conceive a Degree of Heat ten Thousand Times more intense than that of red hot glowing Iron; and in its Absence from the Sun, carry a blazing Tail Ten Hundred Thousand and Fourteen Miles long; through which if the Earth should pass at the Distance of one Hundred Thousand Miles from the Nucleus or main Body of the Comet, it must in its Passage be set on Fire, and reduced to Ashes. That the Sun daily spending its Rays without any Nutriment to supply them, will at last be wholly consumed and annihilated; which must be attended with the Destruction of this Earth, and of all the Planets that receive their Light from it. ……………………

This Load-stone is under the Care of certain Astronomers, who from Time to Time give it such Positions as the Monarch directs. They spend the greatest Part of their Lives in observing the celestial Bodies, which they do by the Assistance of Glasses, far excelling ours in Goodness. For, although their largest Telescopes do not exceed three Feet, they magnify much more than those of a Hundred with us, and shew the Stars with greater Clearness. This Advantage hath enabled them to extend their Discoveries much farther than our Astronomers in Europe. They have made a Catalogue of ten Thousand fixed Stars, whereas the largest of ours do not contain above one third Part of that Number. They have likewise discovered two lesser Stars, or Satellites, which revolve about Mars; whereof the innermost is distant from the Center of the primary Planet exactly three of his Diameters, and the outermost five; the former revolves in the space of ten Hours, and the latter in Twenty-one and an Half; so that the Squares of their periodical Times, are very near in the same Proportion with the Cubes of their Distance from the Center of Mars; which evidently shews them to be governed by the same Law of Gravitation, that influences the other heavenly Bodies (1877 August 12 by Hall).

Pre-forerunner

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Reasons for the mass skepticisms were: 1. Why it is so local?2. Solar Irradiance is “SOLAR CONSTANT” (ΔF/F<0.1%).

What does changed in last years?What does changed in last years?Magnetic component of solar activity as factor of influence:

Sunspots > coronal heating& flares > solar wind > cosmic ray & magnetosphere>

> weather (cloudiness, NAO) > shortage of crop > price burstИКИ-2010

Cosmic Ray – cloudiness: sensitivity of CR-Cloud relation extremely inhomogeneous on the Earth (spots of sensitivity) and this distribution possibly is variable in time

?

Svensmark and Friis-Christinsen (1997-1999)

Laut 2003

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Correlation NAO-”aa”, NAO-PC indexes Lukyanova et al. (Solar Physics,2004)

RPC-NAO> 0.7

Raa-NAO=0.6

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Medieval England example: (statistics of intervals)

Hystogram of Price Bursts Intervals

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Max-Min Asymmetry of wheat price level in England for 1600-1700 relative solar activity from 10Be in Greenland ice

• Consistent differences (asymmetry) in prices at moments of maximum and minimum states of solar activity (1600-1700). White and black triangles are prices in the moment of the maximum and minimum of solar activity from 10Be. White and black rectangles are prices averaged for 3-years intervals centered on moments of maximum and minimum.

• W = (1/2)9 < 0.2%

Max & Min moments of 10Be and relative prices level in the 1580-1700 year (Maunder Minimum)

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Consumables basket –England, 700 yearsABS( relative differences of prices on consumables)

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Histogram of Wheat Price Bursts Intervals

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Wheat Price bursts intervals

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Consumable basket bursts

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Database Median Average Standard deviation

Min-Min interval for Sunspots

10.7 11.02 1.53

Wheat Price bursts intervals

11.00 11.14 1.44

Consumable basket bursts

11.00 10.5 1.28

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Manifestations of Space Weather in Prices

Histograms of Intervals Interval’s Statistics Max-Min Price Asymmetry

Hystogram of the Sunspot Min-Min intervals

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Histogram of Composite Prisces Bursts Intervals

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Database Median Average Standard deviation

Min-Min interval for Sunspots

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11.00 10.5 1.28 Wheat Prices Assymetry relative sunspot

Maximum-Minimum state

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Data for Analysis

• 450 years database on agricultural prices P(t) in England for 1259-1702 from Prof. Rogers (1887).

• 700 years database on consumable basket price - E.H. P. Brown and S.V. Hopkins; Economica-New Series, Vol. XXIII, N.89-90, p.296-314, November 1956

• 20-th century Prices on durum wheat in USA -USDA - NASS   Prices Received by Commodity, Historic Data Series, and Indexes, 6/24/94

• Moments of maximums/minimums of sunspots TMax(t), TMin(t) for years 1610 - 2000 from NOAO Satellite and Information Center at ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/maxmin.new

• Data on solar activity max/min from isotope 10Be in Greenland for the years 1600-1700 from Beer et al. (1998) and Usoskin et al. (2001).

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Solar Cycle is not stable!Minimum - Minimum intervals for

Sunspot number cycle 8,2

15

11

10 1

1

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9 9,2

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,7 12

,1

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1816

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34

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55

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85

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18

55

18

66

18

77

18

88

18

99

191

0

192

1

19

32

194

3

19

54

19

65

19

76

19

87

19

98

sp

ots

nu

mb

er i

n m

inim

um

1.b.

ИКИ-2010

3-D diagram of the possible influence of solar

cycle/weather conditions on wheat prices

ИКИ-2010

Price Formation

METEOROLOGY long-time variation

and noise like disturbances

POLITICAL ACTIVITY:

Government’s investitures, import, control of high price limit.Revolutions, wars.

WHEAT PRICES BURSTS

MARKET’S DEMAND

WHEAT PRODUCTIVITY

FREE MARKET EXPORT and INVESTURES

(include wheat square and technology development )

TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS

long time evolution with step-like transition

(agriculture, genetic engineering ,mechanisms,…)

WEATHER CONDITIONS(cloudiness, rainfalls, server winters, torrid

summers and droughts)

FLUX OF GALAXY COSMIC RAYS

SOLAR ACTIVITY

SOLAR WIND

ИКИ-2010

Phase Analysis

• The hypothesis that the distribution of the phases is uniform can be rejected on a significance level >99% for price bursts and >99.9% for minimums of solar activity.

Price Bursts Phase Hystogram for period P=11.14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5Phase Bins

Num

ber in B

in

Solar Minimums Phase Hystogram for period P=11.02 year

0

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5Phase bins

Nu

mb

er i

n b

in

00

00

Ttt

Ttt ii

i int