M makroekonomika

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M

makroekonomika

Lleqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari (IS

modeli)

Sesavali

2

makroekonomikur doneze gamoiyofen saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, warmoebis faqtorebis, fulis da finansur bazrebs.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze nayidi da gayiduli produqciis moculobebi erTmaneTis tolia, magram es ar niSnavs, rom waroebuli da gayiduli produqciis raodenobac erTmaneTis toli iqneba.

wonasworul mdgomareobaSi warmoebuli da gayiduli produqciis raodenoba erTmaneTis tolia.

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

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wonasworobis SenarCuneba damokidebulia imaze, Tu rogoria saojaxo meurneobebis damokidebuleba moxmarebis mimdinare donisadmi, mocemul momentisaTvis sawarmoo ZalTa arsebuli ganviTarebis donis pirobebSi.

amitom Cveni Seswavlis sagani iqneba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazaarze wonasworobis pirobebi da is faqtorebi, romlebic gavlenas axdenen wonasworobis Camoyalibebasa da darRvevaze.


Sesavali

4

erToblivi moTxovna da misi struqtura

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze myidvelebis rolSi makroekonomikur doneze gamodian: saojaxo meurneobebi, mwarmoeblebi, saxelmwifo da danarCeni msoflio. es subieqtebi ayalibeben moTxovnas saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze.


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saxelmwifos

moxmareba

GDP = C + I + G + NX

saojaxo meurneobebismoxmareba

kerZo Sida investiciebi

wminda eqsporti

GDP=s komponentebi



1996

100%

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007

80%

60%

40%

20%

C

I

G

Ex

saqarTvelos mSp-s struqtura 1996-2007 wlebisaTvis

120%

140%



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arsebobs uamravi faqtori, romelic maT gadawyvetilebaze zemoqmedebs, magaliTad, rogoricaa mimdinare gankargvadi Semosavlebi (gadasaxadisagan Tavisufali Semosavlebi), maTi qonebis sidide, saprocento ganakveTi, maTi molodinebi momavlTan dakavSirebiT, konstituciuri wesrigi, socialuri uTanasworoba da sxva. Tu Cven SeviswavliT am da sxva faqtorebis da miTxovnis damokidebulebas miviRebT sxvadasxva moTxovnis mrudebs.

rogor iReben gadawyvetilebas saojaxo meurneobebi sakuTari moTxovnis formirebisas saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze?

ekonomistebi zogadad moTxovnaze faqtorTa didi jgufis zemoqmedebis faqts aRiareben. Tumca azrTa sxvadasxvaoba warmoiSoba imasTan dakavSirebiT Tu, romeli faqtori ufro metad mniSvnelovania erToblivi moTxovnis gansazRvrisas.


moxmareba

8

keinzianelebi miiCneven rom yvelaze ufro mniSvnelovani faqtori aris mimdinare gankargvadi Semosavlebi,

klasikosebi ki miiCneven, rom adamianebi gadawyvetilebas

iReben mkacrad subieqturad da is damokidebulia saprocenro ganakveTsa da adamianTa mier drois konkretul momentSi upiretesobebis ganawilebaze.


moxmareba

9

moxmarebis da danazogebis funqcia

keinzianuri koncefciis mixedviT mimdinare moxmareba damokidebulia mimdinare Semosavlebze da igi e.w. “ZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoniT” ganisazRvreba, romlis mixedviTac adamianebi, Semosavlebis zrdisas midrekilni arian gazardon TavianTi moxmareba.

algebrulad “ZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoni” Semdegi formiT SegviZlia CavweroT:

MPC < 1, da MPC + MPS = 1, sadac MPS – danazogebisadmi zRvruli midrekilebaa. aqedan gamomdinareobs daskvna, rom danazogebi mimdinare Semosavlebzea damokidebuli: S=S(Y)

MPC sadac, - avtonomiuri moxmarebaa; - moxmarebisadmi zRvruli miderkileba;

aCYCC MPCa


moxmareba

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moxmarebis funqcia

saojaxo meurneobebi gadawyvetilebas iReben ara mTeli TavianTi Semosavlis mixedviT. aramed mxolod gankargvadi Semosavlis( )mixedviT:

sadac, - proporciuli sagadasaxado ganakveTia

Sesabamisad

v

ya YCC vMPC

tYYY v

t

)1( tMPC vyMPC


moxmareba

C(y)

Caα

β

C

Y

moxmarebis funqcia

YCtg

YCtg vMPC

/

/


moxmareba

saqarTvelos moxmarebis funqcia 1997-2007 wlebisaTvis

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 180000.0

2,000.0

4,000.0

6,000.0

8,000.0

10,000.0

12,000.0

14,000.0

f(x) = 0.736090582615789 x + 751.410344193826R² = 0.9831965479994

Y

C

12

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2001

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007


moxmareba

13

investiciebi

• investiciebi sawarmos mimdinare danaxarjebisagan gansxvavebiT Sedegs imave periodSi ar iZleva, romelSic igi xorcieldeba, aramed mTel rig momdevno periodebSi. amitom investiciuri danaxarjebis Sefasebisas warmoiSoba sxvadasxva periodis Rirebulebebis Sedarebis problema, romelis gadawyvetac diskontirebis saSualebiT aris SesaZlebeli.

• makroekonomikaSi drois faqtoris gaTvaliswineba mniSvnelovania. saprocento ganakveTi(i) aris normativi, romlis safuZvelzec dRevandeli fuli da saqoneli SeiZleba gaicvalos momavalSi drois gansazrvrul momentisaTvis fulsa da saqonelze.


investiciebi

• mocemuli Rirebuleba(PV) aris momavalSi fulis Rirebuleba dayvanili dRevandel Rirebulebaze. magaliTad, Tu saprocento ganakveTi 10%-ia momdevno periodSi 1 laris mimdinare Rirebuleba iqneba ≈0.91 lari. zogadad Cven SegviZlia CavweroT:

saprocento ganakveTi da mocemuli Rirebuleba

PV=Y1 Y2 Yn

(1+i) (1+i)2 (1+i)n+ +…+

• rac niSnavs rom, imisaTvis, rom momaval 1,2,...n periodebSi gvqonoda Y1, Y2,… Yn Semosavali (∑Yi=CFt), sabaziso(nulovan) periodSi unda dagvebandebina PV odenobis Tanxa.


investiciebi

• meoresmxriv, imisaTvis rom gavigoT ramdenad Rirs investiciis(I0) dabandeba amisaTvis saWiroa gaviangariSoT wminda mocemuli Rirebuleba(NPV). risTvisac saWiroa erTmaneTs SevudaroT I0 da PV. sadac PV Sefasdeba alternatiuli proeqtis saprocento ganakveTiT(IRR) an sabanko saprocento ganakveTiT(i).

investiciebis zRvruli efeqturoba da wminda mocemuli Rirebuleba

NPV= - I0 + PV • Tu NPV>0 maSin, Rirs investiciebis ganxorcieleba• Tu NPV<0 maSin, ar Rirs investiciebis ganxorcieleba

• imisaTvis rom gavigoT ramdenad Rirs investiciis(I0) dabandeba amisaTvis saWiroa gaviangariSoT ras udris am investiciebis zRvruli efeqturoba(IRR). IRR aris iseTi saprocento ganakveTi romelsac wonasworobaSi moyavs Semdegi toloba:

Io=∑ Yk

(1+IRR)k k=1

n

• miRebuli, IRR SegviZlia SeudaroT an sxva altenatiuli proeqtis IRR-s an sabanko depozitis saprocento ganakveTs(i) anac sxva finansuri aqtivis saprocento ganakveTs.


investiciebi

investiciebis funqcia

• maSasademe Tu nebismieri sxva saprocento ganakveTi mcirdeba, maSin izrdeba ganxorcielebadi investiciuri proeqtebis raodenobac.

IRR, i

I

i1

α ),( IRRiII


investiciebi

i2

saxelmwifo xarjebi - G

• saxelmwifo axorcielebs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sesyidvas kerZo seqtorisagan da awarmoebs sazogadoebriv dovlaTs.

• sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi SeiniSneba mSp-Si saxelmwifo xarjebis wilis zrdis tendencia: XX-is dasawyisSi saSualod is Seadgenda 10%, xolo XXI-is dasawyisSi – ukve 40-60%.

• SeuZlebelia agreTve saxelmwifo xarjebis optimalobis Sefaseba.

• saxelmwifo xarjebis moculobas, garda saxelmwifo biujetis tipiuri xarjebisa(saerTo daniSnulebis saxelmwifo momsaxurebis Tavdacvis, sazogadoebrivi wesrigisa da usafrTxoebis, garemos dacvis da sxva), gansazRvravs fiskaluri politikis miznebi.

• saxelmwifo biujeti dgindeba parlamentis mier, rogorc wesi erTi wliT adre.


saxelmwifo xarjebi

• saxelmwifo Sesyidvebis saSualebiT garda pirdapiri zemoqmedebisa saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze, saxelmwifo zemoqmedebs iribadac, gadasexadebisa da sesxis aRebis (obligaciebis gamoSvebiT) gziT.

• sagadasaxado ganakveTebisa da moculobis cvlilebiT saxelmwifo zemoqmedebs gankargvad Semosavalebze da Sesabamisad saojaxo meurneobebis samomxmareblo moTxovnaze.

• sesxis aRebis SemTxvevaSi - fasiani qaRaldebis bazarze ganxorcielebuli operaciebis Sedegad icvleba saprocento ganakveTi da Sesabamisad mwarmoeblebis moTxovna investiciebze.


saxelmwifo xarjebi

wonasworoba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze – IS modeli


IS modeli

• ganvixiloT daxuruli ekonomika, maSin:

• xolo, wonasworobis piroba aris:

sadac, - aris dagegmili danaxarjebi(erToblivi miwodeba)

- faqtiuri danaxarjebi (erToblivi moTxovna)

GiItYYCY

GICY

MPCa

)()(

EY

E

Y

yv

keinzianuri jvari

E

Y

Z2

MPC

GiICa )(

Warbi miwodeba

Warbi moTxovna

45 o

E

Y


IS modeli

Z1

AGiICa )(

• Tu izrdeba sagadasaxado ganakveTi, maSin Y mrudis daxris kuTxe mcirdeba da Tu mcirdeba sagadasaxado ganakveTi - izrdeba.

• Tu mcirdeba moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba, maSin Y mrudis daxris kuTxe mcirdeba da Tu izrdeba moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba - izrdeba.

• Tu izrdeba avtonomiuri moxmareba, investiciebi anda saxelmwifo xarjebi, maSin mrudi gadaadgildeba zemoT da piriqiT.

EE

Y

45 o

Y1

Y1=E1

Y1=E1

Y2=E2

Y2=E2

Y2


IS modeli

ΔA

E

Y

E, A

A i

Y

i

A

• IS modelSi i da Y –is kombinaciebi iZleva IS mrudis wertilebs.

Ca+G

i2


IS modeli

45 o

i1

Y1 Y2

IS

i

i

i

ia

iia

iii

l

ttg

l

Ytai

ilatY

aGRlC

GilRltYYCY

ilRliRliI

MPC

MPC

MPC

MPC

))1(1(

))1(1(

))1(1(

)(

)()(

max

max

maxmax

IS mrudis mdebareobis ganmsazRvreli faqtorebi

• IS mrudis daxris kuTxe tolia:


IS modeli


IS modeli

IS mrudis mdebareobis ganmsazRvreli faqtorebi

• IS mrudis gadaadgileba. rom gavigoT ra ganapirobebs IS mrudis paralelur gadaadgilebas amisaTvis unda dauSvaT, rom i=const, maSin SegviZlia Y Semdegnairad gamovsaxoT:

• Tu am gamosaxulebas gavawarmoebT, A-s mimarT gveqneba:

• maSasadame IS mrudi gadaadgildeba Tu Seicvleba avtonomiuri moxmareba(Ca), kapitalis zRvruli efeqturoba(R), investiciebis mgrZnobiaroba saprocento ganakveTis cvlilebisadmi (li), investiciebis moculoba(I) da saxelmwifo xarebi(G). ΔA-s mamravls avtonomiuri xarjebis multiplikatori ewodeba.

AtMPC

Y

)1(1

1

)1(1 tMPC

AY

multiplikatoruli efeqti

• multiplikatori gviCvenebs Tu ramdeniT gaizrdeba erToblivi moTxovna( Y) avtonomiuri xarjebis(A) erTi erTeuliT gazrdis SemTxvevaSi.

• radgan 1-MPCy (1-t) < 1, amitom multiplikatori erTze meti iqneba. es ki

imas niSnavs, rom avtonomiuri xarjebis erTi erTeuliT gazrdis SemTxvevaSi erToblivi moTxovna gaizrdeba erTze meti sididiT.

• multiplikatoris efeqtis axsna Semdeg logikiT SeiZleba: magaliTad saxelmwifo zrdis Tavdacvis xarjebs 100 ful. erT. maSin, Tu moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba 0.7-ia, maSin Tavdacvis sferoSi

dasaqmebulibi daxarjaven 0.7.100=70 dauSvaT sayofacxovrebo teqnikis Sesyidvaze, sayofacxovrebo teqnikis mwarmoeblebi ki

0.7.70=49 sakvebi produqtebis SeZenaze da a.S. zogadi saxiT es procesi ase Caiwereba:

ΔA –s Tanamamravli usasrulo geometriuli progresiis jamia romelic tolia:

)...1( 32 MPCMPCMPCMPCY

)1/(1 MPC


IS modeli

v

E

Y

)1(1 tMPC

G

E

A i

Y

i

A

fiskaluri politika da mulTiplikatoruli efeqti

ΔG


IS modeli

Y1 Y2

i1

ZiriTadi cnebebi


• saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari

• warmoebis faqtorebis bazari• fulis bazari• finansuri bazari

• saojaxo meurneobebi• mwarmoeblebi• saxelmwifo• danarCeni msoflio

• wonasworoba

• ZiriTadi fsiqolofiuri kanoni• moxmarebisadmi zRvruli

midrekileba• danazogenisadmi zRvruli

midrekileba• avtonomiuri moxmareba• gankargvadi Semosavali

• mocemuli Rirebuleba• investiciebis zRvruli efeqti• wminda mocemuli Rirebuleba

• sagadasaxado ganakveTi• saxazino obligacia

• keinzinuri jvari• IS modeli• avtonomiuri danaxarjebis

multiplikatori

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M makroekonomika