Mamun evening seminar-32

製品開発の構想段階における意思決定法

Md. Mamunur Rashid

北見工業大学院博士後期課程

生産基盤工学専攻平成 24年 11月 15日

1 Md. Mamunur Rashid, Kitami Institute of Technology, 2012

Decisionmaking in Conceptual Phase of Product Development


Md. Mamunur Rashid

Doctoral Student (1071308011)

Manufacturing Engineering Graduate ProgramGraduate School of Kitami Institute of Technology

November 15, 2012

Name Md. Mamunur Rashid

Date of Birth 1 November,1970

Place of Birth Dinajpur, Bangladesh

Citizen Bangladesh

Present Position Management CounselorBangladesh Institute of Management Dhaka, Bangladesh

Personal Details

Present Address:Hokkaido, Kitami-shi, Toryo-cho 111-2-10-16


Degrees Obtained

November 1993Bachelor of Science in Mechanical EngineeringBangladesh Institute of TechnologyRajshahi, Bangladesh

December 1996Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering Bangladesh University of Engineering and TechnologyDhaka, Bangladesh


Work Experiences

Period

from up to Post Organization Place

May-1997 Feb-2004Assistant

Mechanical Engineer

Jamuna Fertilizer Company

Bangladesh

Feb-2004 PresentManagement

Counselor

Bangladesh Institute of

ManagementBangladesh


Publications of the Doctor’s WorkTechnical Papers in Refereed Journals:•Md. Mamunur Rashid, A.M.M. Sharif Ullah, Junichi Tamaki, and Akihiko Kubo. (2011). Evaluation of Hard Materials using Eco-Attribute, Advanced Materials Research, Volume 325, Pages 693-698 [ Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland] [http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.325.693]•Md. Mamunur Rashid, Junichi Tamaki, A.M.M. Sharif Ullah and Akihiko Kubo. (2011). A Numerical Kano Model for Compliance Customer Needs with Product Development, Industrial Engineering and Management Systems: An International Journal, Volume 10, Number 2, Pages 140-153 [http://kiie.org/iems/] [The Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers (KIIE), Korea].•A.M.M. Sharif Ullah, Md. Mamunur Rashid and Junichi Tamaki. (2012). On Some Unique Features of C-K Theory of Design, CIRP Journal of Manufacturing Science and Technology, Volume 5 Number 1, Pages 55-66. [Elsevier, The Netherlands] [http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cirpj.2011.09.001].


Publications of the Doctor’s WorkFull-length Paper in International Conference•Md. Mamunur Rashid, A.M.M. Sharif Ullah, M.A. Rashid Sarker, Junichi Tamaki, and Akihiko Kubo. (2012). Logical Aggregation of Customer Needs Assessment, Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Industrial Applications, Sapporo, Japan, August 20-26, 2012.

Paper in National Conference:•Md. Mamunur Rashid, Junichi Tamaki, A. M.M. Sharif Ullah and Akihiko Kubo. (2010). A Virtual Customer Needs System for Product Development, Proceedings of the 2010 Annual Meeting of Japan Society for Precision Engineering, Sapporo, Hokkaido Branch, Japan, September 04, 2010, Pages 53-54.




Agenda:

1.General Background

2.Mathematical Settings

3.Customer Needs Assessment

4.Sustainability Assessment

5.Creativity Assessment

6.Discussion and Concluding Remarks



General Background



What is Product Development?

Product Development is the study of activities of a product life-cycle in a concurrent manner.



Internal Customer

External Customer

Conceptual Phase(Key Solutions)

Materialization(Design and Manufacturing)

Use(Satisfaction)

Disposal(Recycle,…)



Time

Per

cent

age,

%

Freedom of making choices

Knowledge of the problem

0

100Conceptual Phase



Internal Customer

External Customer


Creativity

Key solution depends on the creativity of internal customers.

How to differentiate a creative key solution from a non-creative key solution?



Internal Customer

External Customer

Conceptual Phase(Key Solutions) Disposal

(Recycle,…)

Sustainability

How to deal with the sustainability assessment in key solution determination process?



Internal Customer

External Customer


Use(Satisfaction)

What is the appropriate customer need model?How to deal with the unknown customer needs?How to classify the key solutions based on customer responses?…



Mathematical Settings



Fuzzy Number

A = Comfortable

A(x) = [0,1]X = [0,60]

Otherwise

xx

xx

x

xA

0

35252535

35

25151525

15

150

)(

xx

X

A

A

10,:



Note that:

A(x) is called the membership value of x with respect to A.

A(x) is also called the degree of belief of x in terms of A.

The Truth-Value (TV) of the proposition “x is A” is also equal to A(x).



Cut

[20,30]

10,)(| xxA A

A0.5 = [20,30] A = Comfortable = 0.5



Expected Value of a Fuzzy Number (E(A))

E(A) = 25

dxx

xdxxAE

A

A

)(

)()(

E(A) = 25, A = Comfortable



Support of a Fuzzy Number (Supp(A))

baA

bababaASupp

,1,0|max

,,,)(

A = ComfortableSupp(A) = [15,35]



Linguistic Likelihood (LL): Case-1(Imprecise Probability)

mu- most unlikely; qu- quite unlikely; su-some unlikely; ns- not sure; sl-some likely; ql-quite likely; ml-most likely

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Deg

ree

of B

elie

f(D

oB),

µ

A

Relative Frequency, fr

mu suqu ns sl ql mlmu qu su ns sl ql ml



Linguistic Likelihood (Imprecise Probability) (LL): Case-2

mu- most unlikely; pu- perhaps unlikely; ns- not surepl-perhaps likely; ml-most likely

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1Deg

ree

of B

elie

f(D

oB),

µ

A


mu pu ns mlpl mu pu ns pl ml



Range Compliance of Numerical Range with respect to a Fuzzy Number (R(L,A))

583.0],30,10[ eComfortablALR

L

L

dxx

ALR L

A

,

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

UI

DIDI

UI

25

00.20.40.60.8

11.2

0 5 10 15

mF

CO2 Footprint (kg/kg), x

VL L M H VH

[0,5]


Md. Mamunur Rashid, Kitami Institute of Technology, 2012

Good

Range Compliance

CO2 Footprint x, (kg/kg)

Y R([0,5], Y) Evaluation

VL 0.51.17 (DI)

L 0.67

M 0.083

0.083 (UI)H 0

VH 0

DI = Desirable Impact (on the environment)

UI = Undesirable Impact (on the environment)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

UI

DI

UI

DI

26



00.20.40.60.8

11.2

0 5 10 15

mF

CO2 Footprint (kg/kg), x

VL L M H VH

[5,10]

Range Compliance

CO2 Footprint x, (kg/kg)

Y R([5,10], Y) Evaluation

VL 00.42 (DI)

L 0.42

M 0.58

1 (UI)H 0.42

VH 0

Good

DI = Desirable Impact (on the environment)

UI = Undesirable Impact (on the environment)



Discrete Event Simulation

Like Must-be Neutral Live-with Dislike

fr 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1

LL mu ns pu mu mu

E(LL) 0.1 0.5 0.267 0.1 0.1

Pr 0.094 0.468 0.25 0.094 0.094

CPr 0.094 0.562 0.812 0.906 1

RAND [0,1]If RAND =[0,0.094) Then Z = Like

If RAND=[0.094,0.562) Then Z = Must-beIf RAND=[0.562,0.812) Then Z = NeutralIf RAND=[0.812, 0.906) Then Z = Live-withIf RAND=[0.906,1] Then Z = Dislike

Z {Like, Must-be, Neutral, Live-with, Dislike}

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1Deg

ree

of B

elie

f(D

oB),

µ

A


mu pu ns mlpl mu pu ns pl ml



Propositions µ(.) (x) ( = TV)

P1 22º C is a Cold temperature 0.1

P2 22º C is a Comfortable temperature 0.7

P3 22º C is a Hot temperature 0

Truth-Value (TV) of Propositions

Cold

Comfortable

Hot



Information Content of Proposition(s): (CE)

Propositions µ(.) (x) I(.) Certainty Entropy (CE)

P1 22º C is a Cold temperature

0.1 0.2

0.267P2 22º C is a Comfortable

temperature0.7 0.6

P3 22º C is a Hot temperature

0 0

n

xI

CE

n

iAi

1

Otherwise

x

xx

xIA

AA

A

5.01

1

5.005.0

0



Information Content of Requirement (RE)

Propositions µ(.)(x) Requirement (R) Degree of Fulfillment

P1 22º C is aCold temperature 0.1

Coldtemperature

22º C has less possibility to fulfill the Requirement because it mostly belongs to Comfortable rather than Cold (even Hot).

This means that 22º C has a very high information content with respect to the Requirement

P2 22º C is a Comfortable temperature

0.7 R(x = 22C) = 0.1P3 22º C is a

Hot temperature 0

Requirement Entropy (RE)



Requirement Entropy (RE)

Otherwise

baxab

xb

ax

RE RR

R

0

,

1

nixb

nixa

Ai

Ai

1

1

|max

|min

RE = 0.857 for R = “Cold Temperature,”

when the choice is 22C

32



22º C

R = Cold TemperatureTotal Entropy ((CE,RE))

Low Entropy (good)

50 C

10 C

33



Coherency Measure ()

A

B

Solution A is better than solution B because (A) < (B)

BA



Customer Needs Assessment



Internal Customer

External Customer


Use(Satisfaction)

What is the appropriate customer need model?How to deal with the unknown customer needs?How to classify the key solutions based on customer responses?…

(Recall Slide No.15)



Roadmap of Customer Needs Assessment

Step 4: Evaluation

Step 1:Customer Needs Data from Bangladesh for Small Passenger VehiclesAccording to Kano-model

Step 3:Customer Needs Classification

Step 2:Simulation of Unknown Answers (discarded data)

CE

RE (λ=?)

best

37

From the Daily Star, May 4, 2012

DhakaBangladesh


Decisionmaking in Conceptual Phase of Product DevelopmentStep 1: Passenger Vehicles Scenario


Decisionmaking in Conceptual Phase of Product DevelopmentStep 1: Customer Needs Data100 respondents from different section of the society.38 parameter of small passenger vehicles, as follows:

No Small Passenger Vehicles Features1 SUV type vehicle2 Sedan type vehicle3 Van-(microbus) type vehicle4 Made in Japan5 Made in Korea6 Made in India7 Made in Germany... ...36 Fuel is CNG37 Fuel is Diesel38 Fuel is Petrol

39

My car is SedanMy car is not Sedan

•Like•Must-be•Neutral•Live-with•Dislike

•Like•Must-be•Neutral•Live-with•Dislike

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be Md. Mamunur Rashid, Kitami Institute of Technology, 2012

Decisionmaking in Conceptual Phase of Product DevelopmentStep 1: Questionnaires according to Kano Model (Example)

40


Function or

Feature is Present

Like Q A A A OMust-be R I I I MNeutral R I I I MLive-with R I I I MDislike R R R R Q

Attractive (A), Indifferent (I), Must-be (M), One-dimensional(O), Questionable (Q), and Reverse (R)

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be


Decisionmaking in Conceptual Phase of Product DevelopmentStep 1: Kano Evaluation

41

One dimensional (O)

Must-

be (M

)

Attractive(A)

Reverse (R)

Indifferent (I

)



Step1: Meaning of Kano Evaluation




fr 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1

LL mu ns pu mu mu

E(LL) 0.1 0.5 0.267 0.1 0.1

Pr 0.094 0.468 0.25 0.094 0.094

CPr 0.094 0.562 0.812 0.906 1

RAND [0,1]If RAND =[0,0.094) Then Z = Like

If RAND=[0.094,0.562) Then Z = Must-beIf RAND=[0.562,0.812) Then Z = NeutralIf RAND=[0.812, 0.906) Then Z = Live-withIf RAND=[0.906,1] Then Z = Dislike

Z {Like, Must-be, Neutral, Live-with, Dislike}

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1Deg

ree

of B

elie

f(D

oB),

µ

A


mu pu ns mlpl mu pu ns pl mlStep 2: Simulation Recall slide -27

43

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be



Problem Identification for Customer Needs Classification

Attractive (A) One-dimensional(O)Must-be (M) Indifferent (I)Reverse (R) andQuestionable(Q)

Sedan

Step 3: Customer Needs Classification

44

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be





45


Function or

Feature is Present

Like Q A A A OMust-be R I I I MNeutral R I I I MLive-with R I I I MDislike R R R R Q

Attractive (A), Indifferent (I), Must-be (M), One-dimensional(O), Questionable (Q), and Reverse (R)

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be




46

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be Md. Mamunur Rashid, Kitami Institute of Technology, 2012

Decisionmaking in Conceptual Phase of Product DevelopmentStep 3: Customer Needs Classification

SedanAttractive (A) One-dimensional(O)Must-be (M) Indifferent (I)Reverse (R) andQuestionable(Q)


47

Kano Evaluation Classification(C)

Sedan is either O or MSedan must be included in car population

Sedan is ASedan should be included in car population

Sedan is not I or not RSedan could be included in the car population

Sedan is Q Sedan is a unreliable feature

C = {must be included, should be included, could be included, unreliable};






Step 4: Evaluation

Case-2

Case-1

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be

Sedan

λ= (value in the bracket)



Step 4: Evaluation

Case-2

Case-1

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be

SUV




Step 4: EvaluationCase-1

Case-2

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could beVan


51

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be

Must be Should be Could be

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could be

Somewhat should be

Must be

Could beFor Bangladesh



Step 4: Evaluation

λ=0.997 λ=1.0607 λ=0.719

VanSUV Sedan



Sustainability Assessment



Internal Customer

External Customer

Conceptual Phase(Key Solutions) Disposal

(Recycle,…)

Sustainability

How do we deal with the sustainability assessment in key solution determination process?


54

Sustainability of Grinding Wheel ManufacturingDecisionmaking in Conceptual Phase of Product Development


Design of Grinding Wheel

Primary Production of Hard Materials

Manufacturingof Grinding Wheel

Use of Grinding Wheel

Decision on abrasive grain materials

Disposal of Grinding Wheel

Landfill Reuse ?

Abrasive grain

Bond

☑

Grinding wheel

55

CO2 Footprint (kg/kg)

Wate

r U

sage (

l/kg)

0 5 10 15 20 250

50

100

150

200

250

300

Imprecision in Eco-attributes

Data Sources: CES Selector (V.5.1.0), Granta Design Ltd. UK.

170 types of technical ceramics



56

Imprecision in Eco-Attributes of Hard Materials used in Grinding Wheel

CO2 Footprint (kg/kg)

Wat

er U

sage

(l/

kg)

0 3 6 9 12 150

50

100

150

200

250

300AluminaSilicon CarbideZirconiaBoron NitrideBoron Carbide

NOX (g/kg)

SO

X (

g/k

g)

0 20 40 60 800

30

60

90

120

AluminaSilicon CarbideZirconiaBoron NitrideBoron Carbide

BC

BN

SiC

BC

BNZrO2

Al2O3

SiCZrO2

Al2O3



57

Universe of Discourse (X) for Two Cases Decisionmaking in Conceptual Phase of Product Development


Eco-attribute MultiplyingFactor (X)

CO2 (kg/ kg) 15

Water Usage (l/ kg) 300

NOX(g/ kg) 120

SOX(g/ kg) 80

VL – Very LowL – LowM – ModerateH – HighVH – Very High

Case 1

m(.)

Values of an Eco-attribute

xxxxxxxxxxx

VL L M H VH

VL-Very lowL-LowM-ModerateH-HighVH-Very high

X

Eco-attributes(primary material

production)

Universe of Discourse (X)Case-1 Case-2

CO2 footprint (kg/kg) [0,15] [0,12]Water usage (l/kg) [0,300] [0,280]

NOX emission (g/kg) [0,120] [0,110]SOX emission (g/kg) [0,80] [0,70]

58

Evaluation of Alumina (Al2O3)

Case-1 Case-2



59

Evaluation of Zirconia (ZrO2)

Case-1 Case -2



60

Evaluation of Silicon Carbide(SiC)

Case-1 Case- 2



61

Evaluation of Boron Nitride (BN)

Case-1 Case- 2



62

Evaluation of Boron Carbide (BC)

Case-1 Case- 2



63

Relative Positions of Environmentally Friendly and Less Friendly Materials



Environmentally Friendly

Less Environmentally Friendly

Al2O3 ZrO2 SiC BN BC



Creativity Assessment



Internal Customer

External Customer


Creativity

Key solution depends on the creativity of internal customers.

How to differentiate a creative key solution from a non-creative key solution?




Adaption of Creative Key Solution

is able to explain

Key Solutionsis adopted as a C K

Knowledge

becomesK K

NewKnowledge

K Kshould be added to

Ordinary Concept

ExistingKnowledge

Provides an

K C

CreativeConcept

C Cis needed to replace the

Cannot be explained by

K C

C-K Theory



Propositions Truth values, µ(.) (x) Requirement

P11C1 is suitable for Mars atmosphere

Mostly false

0.1Engine should be suitable for Mars atmosphere

P12C1 is not suitable for Mars atmosphere

Perhaps true

0.73

P13 Performance of C1 is satisfactory

Mostly true 0.9 Engine performance should be satisfactory

P14 Performance of C1 is not satisfactory

Mostly false

0.1

Four Propositions for C1 ((Existing/non Creative Engine)

(Hydrocarbon+ O2 CO2 + Energy)



Total Information Content of C1 (Existing/non Creative Engine)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Requ

ireme

nt En

tropy

Certainty Entropy

information content(1.74)

Epistemic Challege(performance)

Compelling reason(suitableness)

(CE)

Suitableness

Performance

λ= 1.74



Propositions Truth values, µ(.) (x) Requirement

P21 C2 is suitable for Mars atmosphere

Perhaps true

0.73 Engine should be suitable for Mars atmosphere

P22 C2 is not suitable for Mars atmosphere

Perhaps false

0.27

P23 Performance of C2 is satisfactory

Not sure 0.5 Engine performance should be satisfactory

P24 Performance of C2 is not satisfactory

Not sure 0.5

Four Propositions for C2 (Creative Engine)

(Magnesium+ CO2 O2 + Energy)



Total Information Content of C2 (Creative Engine)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Req

uire

men

t Ent

ropy

Certainty Entropy

information content(3)

Epistemic Challege(performance)

Compelling reason(suitableness)

(CE)

Performance

Suitableness

λ= 3



It is needed to maximize the information content to be creative in conceptual phase of product development.

C2=Creative Engine (Magnesium+ CO2 O2 + Energy)

C1=Existing Engine (Hydrocarbon+ O2 CO2 + Energy)

Conclusion:



Discussion and Concluding Remarks

73

1. To deal with the intrinsic complexity of customer needs analysis, logical aggregation of customer opinions is a better choice compared to that of frequency based analysis. This faculty of thought is demonstrated to be true by logically aggregating the field data of customer needs collected from Bangladesh on small passenger vehicles.

2. The multi-valued logic plays an important role in the logical computation. For the sake of a better understanding, Kano-model-based customer answers are considered.

3. Further study can be carried out extending the presented logical computation to other customer needs models.



Customer Needs Assessment

74

Sustainability Assessment



1. Four eco-attributes called CO2 footprint, NOX emission, SOX

emission and Water usage of five classes of hard materials based on Alumina, Zirconia, Silicon Carbide, Boron Nitride, and Boron Carbides are studied. In all cases, numerical ranges give the eco-attributes, not by a sharp data points.

2. To deal with the imprecision associated with the eco-attributes, an entity called range compliance is used. The compliance of an eco-attribute given by a numerical range is determined by using a set of five linguistic classes labeled very low, low, moderate, high, and very high.

75

Sustainability Assessment (Cont’d)Decisionmaking in Conceptual Phase of Product Development


3. The eco-attribute complying more with very low or low has low impact on the environment. The eco-attribute complying more with moderate, high, or very high has impact on the environment. A procedure is shown to aggregate these positive and negative impacts for all eco-indicators for a given family of materials namely Alumina, Zirconia, Silicon Carbide, Boron Nitride, and Boron Carbide.

4. It is found that Alumina based hard materials has low environmental impact followed by that of Zirconia and Silicon Carbide base materials. Boron Carbide has the highest environmental impact. The environmental impact of Boron Nitride based materials remains between that of Silicon Carbide and Boron Carbide based materials.



Creativity Assessment1. Creative concept means a concept that is undecided with respect

to the existing knowledge at the point of time when it (the concept) is conceived.

2. The information content of design from the sense of epistemic uncertainty should be maximized to remain creative (i.e., to adopt the creative concept).

3. When new knowledge is available underlying the creative concept, the information content of the product should go down significantly. Otherwise, the new knowledge does not add any value to the product.

77

Thanks for your attentions !



Documents

Mamun evening seminar-32