n°32March 2016Maps & facts ClubSAHEL AND

WEST AFRICA

No 45, November 2016

www.oecd.org/swac/maps ClubSAHEL AND

WEST AFRICASecretariat

These maps are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. We encourage the use of our maps! Please include the Club’s copyright, inform or contact us for specific requests: swac.contact@oecd.org

Eight million pEoplE in northErn nigEria facing acutE food insEcurity

T he October 2016 analysis of the Cadre harmonisé1 expands its

coverage to include for the first time 16 out of 36 states, almost half of Nigeria. In these states, some eight million people are currently facing acute food insecurity (phases  3-5, October-December 2016). Due to the Boko Haram insurgency and massive population displacement, the three northeastern states, Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, have

1 West African tool to analyse and identify areas and amount of people at risk of food and nutrition insecurity.

reached extremely high levels of food insecurity (Maps & Facts no 44). While humanitarian access is improving, the situation remains particularly worrisome in the state of Borno, where nearly 60% of the population (3.3 million people) are still facing acute food insecurity (phases 3-5), including 55 000 people threatened by famine (phase 5). If no appro-priate measures are being taken, the current food and nutrition situation

is likely to get worse during the next lean season in June-August 2017. By then, the Cadre harmonisé projec-tions indicate that the number of severely food insecure people in the 16 analysed states could reach 8 to 10 million people. Analytical tools, data collection methods and training for local administrations need to be further developed in order to fine-tune and expand the analysis of the Cadre harmonisé to all parts of Nigeria.

Source: Cadre harmonisé, national analysis, October 2016. © Agrhymet/CILSS

FCT

Adamawa

BornoYobe

GombeBauchi

Taraba

Jigawa

Kano

Kaduna

KatsinaZamfara

Plateau

Niger

Kebbi

Sokoto

Oyo

Ogun

Lagos

OsunEkiti

Kwara

KogiBenue

Nassarawa

Cross River

Ebonyi

ImoAbia

OndoEdo

Delta

Bayelsa Rivers AkwaIbom

Anambra

Enugu

Lake Chad

FCT

Adamawa

BornoYobe

GombeBauchi

Taraba

Jigawa

Kano

Kaduna

Katsina

Zamfara

Plateau

Niger

Kebbi

Sokoto

Oyo

Ogun

Lagos

OsunEkiti

Kwara

KogiBenue

Nassarawa

Cross River

Ebonyi

ImoAbia

OndoEdo

Delta

Bayelsa Rivers AkwaIbom

Anambra

Enugu

Lake Chad

Phases of food insecurity

June-August 2017October-December 2016

Phase 1: Minimal Phase 2: Stressed Phase 3: Crisis Phase 4: Emergency Phase 5: Famine Not analysed

No. 54, May 2017

MAPS & FACTS

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. We encourage the use of our maps. Please include the Club’s copyright, inform or contact us for specifi c requests: swac.contact@oecd.org

www.oecd.org/swac/maps ClubSAHEL ANDWEST AFRICA

Secretariat

ClubSAHEL ANDWEST AFRICA

Secretariat

NIGERIA’S RECESSION SLOWS DOWN WEST AFRICAN ECONOMY

W ith 0.4% real GDP growth in 2016, West Africa has recorded

the lowest growth rate in Africa, far below the continental average (2.2%) and the best-performing region of East Africa (5.3%). The situation can be explained by the economic downturn in Nigeria, which has slipped into recession (- 1.5%) during the second term of 2016, due to the drastic fall in oil prices as well as the fragile security situation and political uncertainty. In fact, Nigeria accounts for two-thirds of West Africa’s GDP and nearly a third of Africa’s GDP. Nigeria’s recession therefore dragged down West Africa’s economy and had an adverse effect on Africa’s GDP growth, more so than the recessions in Chad (-3.4%) or Libya (-8.1%). A closer look at GDP

Sources: African Economic Outlook 2017; Statistical Department of the African Development Bank; domestic authorities

3 < 5%

< 3%

> 7%

5-7%

Real GDP growth rates, projections 2017

Sources: African Economic Outlook 2017, Statistical Department of the African Development Bank (AfDB); various domestic authorities

MaliNiger

NigeriaBenin

TogoGhana

Burkina Faso

Senegal

Gambia

Cabo Verde

Côte d’Ivoire

Guinea

Liberia

Sierra Leone

Chad-0.2%

Mauritania

5.6%

2.2%5.5%

5.1%7.1%7.3%

5.4%

8.4%

4.0%

5.0%

4.6%4.8%

3.5%

6.8%

4.1%

3.7%

Guinea-BissauGuinea-BissauGuinea-BissauGuinea-BissauGuinea-BissauGuinea-Bissau

growth rates per country reveals that all eight economies of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) recorded positive growth rates in 2016, ranging from 4% in Benin to 8.4% in Côte d’Ivoire. The latter remains Africa’s fastest growing economy, but still relies on exporting raw materials, especially crops, which are subject to global price fl uctuations and climate risks. GDP growth in Ghana, the second strongest economy in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), slowed down for the fi fth consecutive year, from 3.9% in 2015 to 3.3% in 2016. Ghana also continues to experience high levels of infl ation (17%), but economic activity is expected to pick up again in 2017.

In terms of GDP per capita, Cabo Verde leads the region with USD 6 800 (PPP). Liberia and Niger both remain at the bottom-end, with a GDP of less than USD 1 000 per capita. According to the African Economic Outlook 2017, growth prospects are positive. With the expected rebound in oil prices, Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2017 and 4.8% in 2018. West Africa might then record an improved growth performance of 3.4% in 2017.

ECOWAS area: USD 1 500 billion UEMOA area: USD 260 billion

in purchasing power parity (PPP)

Ext

ractAfrican Economic

Outlook 2017www.africaneconomicoutlook.org

n°32March 2016Maps & facts ClubSAHEL AND

WEST AFRICA

No 45, November 2016

www.oecd.org/swac/maps ClubSAHEL AND

WEST AFRICASecretariat

These maps are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. We encourage the use of our maps! Please include the Club’s copyright, inform or contact us for specific requests: swac.contact@oecd.org

Eight million pEoplE in northErn nigEria facing acutE food insEcurity

T he October 2016 analysis of the Cadre harmonisé1 expands its

coverage to include for the first time 16 out of 36 states, almost half of Nigeria. In these states, some eight million people are currently facing acute food insecurity (phases  3-5, October-December 2016). Due to the Boko Haram insurgency and massive population displacement, the three northeastern states, Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, have

1 West African tool to analyse and identify areas and amount of people at risk of food and nutrition insecurity.

reached extremely high levels of food insecurity (Maps & Facts no 44). While humanitarian access is improving, the situation remains particularly worrisome in the state of Borno, where nearly 60% of the population (3.3 million people) are still facing acute food insecurity (phases 3-5), including 55 000 people threatened by famine (phase 5). If no appro-priate measures are being taken, the current food and nutrition situation

is likely to get worse during the next lean season in June-August 2017. By then, the Cadre harmonisé projec-tions indicate that the number of severely food insecure people in the 16 analysed states could reach 8 to 10 million people. Analytical tools, data collection methods and training for local administrations need to be further developed in order to fine-tune and expand the analysis of the Cadre harmonisé to all parts of Nigeria.

Source: Cadre harmonisé, national analysis, October 2016. © Agrhymet/CILSS

FCT

Adamawa

BornoYobe

GombeBauchi

Taraba

Jigawa

Kano

Kaduna

KatsinaZamfara

Plateau

Niger

Kebbi

Sokoto

Oyo

Ogun

Lagos

OsunEkiti

Kwara

KogiBenue

Nassarawa

Cross River

Ebonyi

ImoAbia

OndoEdo

Delta

Bayelsa Rivers AkwaIbom

Anambra

Enugu

Lake Chad

FCT

Adamawa

BornoYobe

GombeBauchi

Taraba

Jigawa

Kano

Kaduna

Katsina

Zamfara

Plateau

Niger

Kebbi

Sokoto

Oyo

Ogun

Lagos

OsunEkiti

Kwara

KogiBenue

Nassarawa

Cross River

Ebonyi

ImoAbia

OndoEdo

Delta

Bayelsa Rivers AkwaIbom

Anambra

Enugu

Lake Chad

Phases of food insecurity

June-August 2017October-December 2016

Phase 1: Minimal Phase 2: Stressed Phase 3: Crisis Phase 4: Emergency Phase 5: Famine Not analysed

Cette carte est sans préjudice du statut de tout territoire, de la souveraineté s’exerçant sur ce dernier, du tracé des frontières et limites internationales, et du nom de tout territoire, ville ou région. Nous encourageons l’utilisation de nos cartes. Veuillez nous informer et en faire mention du copyright du Club. Pour des demandes spécifi ques, contacter : swac.contact@oecd.org

No 54, mai 2017

MAPS & FACTS

www.oecd.org/fr/csao/cartes

Club DU SAHEL ET DEL'AFRIQUE DE L'OUEST

Club DU SAHEL ET DEL'AFRIQUE DE L'OUEST

Secrétariat du

LA RÉCESSION AU NIGÉRIA RALENTIT L’ÉCONOMIE OUEST-AFRICAINE

L’économie ouest-africaine, avec une croissance du PIB réel de

0.4 % en 2016, connaît le taux le plus faible en Afrique, bien en deçà de la moyenne continentale de 2.2 % et de celui de l’Afrique de l’Est, la région la plus performante (5.3 %). Cette situation peut s’expliquer par le ralentissement économique du Nigéria qui s’est transformé en récession (-1.5  %) au deuxième semestre 2016 en raison de la chute drastique des prix du pétrole et d’une situation sécuritaire et politique précaire. Le Nigéria représente en effet les deux-tiers du PIB de l’Afrique de l’Ouest et près d’un tiers du PIB de l’Afrique. La récession nigériane a par conséquent tiré vers le bas l’ensemble de l’économie ouest-africaine et a eu un impact négatif sur la croissance du PIB africain et ce, davantage que

Sources : Perspectives économiques en Afrique 2017 ; Département des statistiques de la Banque africaine de développement ; Autorités nationales

3 < 5 %

< 3 %

> 7 %

5-7 %

Taux de croissance du PIB en volume, prévisions 2017

Sources : Perspectives économiques en Afrique 2017, Département des statistiques de la Banque africaine de développement (BAD) ; diverses autorités nationales

MaliNiger

NigériaBénin

TogoGhana

Burkina Faso

Sénégal

Gambie

Cabo Verde

Côte d’Ivoire

Guinée

Libéria

Sierra Leone

Tchad-0.2 %

Mauritanie

5.6 %

2.2 %5.5 %

5.1 %7.1 %7.3 %

5.4 %

4.0 %

5.0 %

4.6 %4.8 %

3.5 %

6.8 %

4.1 %

3.7 %

Guinée-BissauGuinée-BissauGuinée-BissauGuinée-BissauGuinée-BissauGuinée-Bissau 8.4 %

les récessions au Tchad (-3.4 %) ou en Libye (-8.1 %). Cependant, les huit économies de l’Union économique et monétaire ouest-africaine (UEMOA) ont enregistré des taux de croissance positifs en 2016, allant de 4 % au Bénin à 8.4 % en Côte d’Ivoire. Si cette dernière connaît la croissance la plus rapide en Afrique, son économie repose encore sur l’exploitation et l’exportation de matières premières principalement agricoles, soumises aux aléas des cours mondiaux et du climat. La croissance du PIB au Ghana, deuxième économie la plus performante de la Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (CEDEAO), a ralenti pour la cinquième année consécutive, passant de 3.9 % à 3.3 % en 2016. Si le Ghana connaît encore des hauts niveaux d’infl ation (17 %), l’activité économique

devrait cependant reprendre en 2017. En terme de PIB par habitant, le Cabo Verde arrive en tête avec 6 800 dollars US (PPA). Le Libéria et le Niger restent à la traîne avec un PIB de moins de 1 000 dollars US par habitant. Selon les Perspectives économiques en Afrique 2017, les estimations de croissance sont positives. Avec la reprise attendue des cours du pétrole, l’économie nigériane devrait croître de 2.2 % en 2017 et 4.8 % en 2018. L’Afrique de l’Ouest devrait ainsi enregistrer une meilleure performance avec un taux de 3.4 % en 2017.

Zone CEDEAO : 1 500 milliards de dollars USZone UEMOA : 260 milliards de dollars US

en parité de pouvoir d’achat (PPA)

Ext

raitPerspectives économiques

en Afriquewww.africaneconomicoutlook.org/fr