Mercado 2020

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

Prof. Dr. Sergio De Zen

CEPEA/ESALQ/USP

MERCADOS

- Interno

- Externo 30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

Demanda Internacional por Carne

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

Years

2.010 3,9% 57.592.871,70 57.741.333,22 -148.461,52

2.011 4,3% 58.174.559,70 59.224.844,51 -1.050.284,81

2.012 5,0% 58.762.122,76 60.880.410,50 -2.118.287,75

2.013 5,0% 59.355.620,20 62.582.256,04 -3.226.635,84

2.014 5,0% 59.955.111,96 64.331.674,81 -4.376.562,85

2.015 5,0% 60.560.658,59 66.129.996,68 -5.569.338,09

Growth Rate of

GPD Growth Rate of Production 1,01%

Production (tons) Consumption (tons) Surplus (tons)

0,00

50,00

100,00

150,00

200,00

250,00

300,00

350,00

400,00

19

54

.03

19

55

.04

19

56

.05

19

57

.06

19

58

.07

19

59

.08

19

60

.09

19

61

.10

19

62

.11

19

63

.12

19

65

.01

19

66

.02

19

67

.03

19

68

.04

19

69

.05

19

70

.06

19

71

.07

19

72

.08

19

73

.09

19

74

.10

19

75

.11

19

76

.12

19

78

.01

19

79

.02

19

80

.03

19

81

.04

19

82

.05

19

83

.06

19

84

.07

19

85

.08

19

86

.09

19

87

.10

19

88

.11

19

89

.12

19

91

.01

19

92

.02

19

93

.03

19

94

.04

19

95

.05

19

96

.06

19

97

.07

19

98

.08

19

99

.09

20

00

.10

20

01

.11

20

02

.12

20

04

.01

20

05

.02

20

06

.03

20

07

.04

20

08

.05

20

09

.06

20

10

.07

20

11

.08

GETÚLIO SE SUICIDA

3 PRESIDENTES E 2 ANOS

JUSCELINO E A ESTABILIDADE ECONOMICA E POLÍTICA

Instabilidade política e Economica - JANIO e JANGO

GOLPE E ESTABILIZAÇÀO

MILAGRE

CRISES DO PETRÓLEO

4 MOEDAS E 5 PLANOS ECONOMICAOS

PLANO REAL

Evolução histórica do preço do boi gordo em @ R$ jan/2013

Fonte: Cepea e FGV

Deflator: IGP-DI

Desvalorização Cambial

CRISE

ELEIÇÃO PT

Meat Brazilian Family Expense Billions US$

20,6 20,2

12,1 13,1

10,7

8,5 8,5 9,3

12,4

15,6

19,6

22,5

20,7

24,1

25,6

22,2

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

NESPRO 2013 Source: POF/IBGE 30/09/2013

Curva de Oferta de Carne Bovina

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

The beef supply curve

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0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0

% % % % % % % % %8010 20 30 40 50 60 70

1,200

1,080

960

840

240

120

720

600

480

360

0

Share of agri benchmark countries in

global production

agri

benchmark

71%

Rest of the

world

29%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 00 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

% %10090

US$ per 100 kg carcass weight

AR

UA BR

Percent production of agri benchmark countries

PE ZA US CA

AU

CO

PL

CN

ES

ID

DE

IT

SE, FR,UK

CZ

AT

NO

MX

Source: Agribenchmark,2010

Oferta de Carne Bovina: Brasil

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

Lotação

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

-

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

RO

AC

AM

RR

PA

AP

TO

MA

PI

CE

RN

PB

PE

AL

SE

BA

MG

ES

RJ

SP

PR

SC

RS

MS

MT

GO

DF

Stocking Rate (heads/ha)

2006 (heads/ha)

59,2%

25,9%

hea

ds/

ha

Source: IBGE, Census 2006

Considering all the Brazillian

cattle herd for each state,

divided by the natural and

planted pasture lands in the Agri-census of 2006...

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

MT-

AG

B-C

M

T-V

LR-R

E P

A-M

RB

-RE

PA

-PA

G-C

P

A-P

AG

-RE

PA

-STA

-RE

MG

-CC

H-C

M

G-C

CH

-RE

MG

-MC

L-C

M

G-M

CL-

RE

MG

-STV

-RE

L M

G-U

BB

-R L

M

G-U

BD

-C

MA

-IM

P-C

M

A-I

MP

-RE

BA

-BR

R-C

B

A-I

TP-R

E B

A-V

TC-C

R L

TO

-AR

A-R

E TO

-CO

L-R

E TO

-PA

R-C

M

S-A

MB

-C

MS-

AQ

D-C

M

S-B

NT-

RE

MS-

CM

A-C

M

S-C

HS-

C

MS-

CM

B-C

M

S-C

OX

-C

MS-

DR

D-E

M

S-M

RD

-CC

M

S-N

AV

-E

MS-

NV

A-R

E M

S-P

RB

-CR

E M

S-R

RP

-C

MS-

SGO

-C

MT-

ALF

-CR

E M

T-B

RG

-CR

E M

T-C

AC

-R

MT-

PTL

-RE

AC

-EP

I-C

A

C-R

B-C

RE

SP-A

ND

-RE

SP-G

NS-

RE

SP-I

TA-C

RE

SP-P

IR-R

E SP

-PR

V-C

RE

SP-S

JR-R

E SP

-STC

-E

SP-T

UP

-RE

RO

-CO

C-C

RE

RO

-JIP

-RE

RO

-PTV

-CR

E R

O-V

IL-R

E R

S-A

LG-C

R

S-B

AG

-CR

E R

S-LV

S-C

R

RS-

STM

-CR

E P

R-G

UA

-C

PR

-PR

N-R

E P

R-S

TP-R

E P

R-U

MU

-CR

E G

O-C

AT-

C

GO

-NIQ

-C

GO

-NV

C-R

E G

O-P

OR

-C

GO

-RIV

-C

UA

/ha

“Typical Farms” Stocking Rate 1 UA = 450 Kg of LW

Lotação das Fazendas Tipicas

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

91%

30,3%

Lastest focus groups of “typical farms” for each

state

2012 2011 2010 2009

Source: Cepea

Potencial de Produção

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

State Herd Average Stocking Rate

(CEPEA) Herd 2011 (heads)

Representativeness in this sample (%)

Slaughter 2011 (heads)

Representativeness in this sample (%)

Off take rate (%)

Carcass Weight

(thousand tons)

Average Carcass Weight (kg)

AC 1,28 UA/ha 2.549.497 1% 455.485 2% 18% 99,6 218,7

BA 0,83 UA/ha 10.667.903 6% 1.090.600 4% 10% 258,6 237,1

GO 0,65 UA/ha 21.744.650 11% 2.701.839 10% 12% 670,4 248,1

MA 0,65 UA/ha 7.264.106 4% 688.609 3% 9% 162,7 236,2

MG 0,82 UA/ha 23.907.915 13% 2.099.739 8% 9% 484,3 230,7

MS 0,57 UA/ha 21.553.851 11% 3.283.771 13% 15% 768,9 234,1

MT 0,96 UA/ha 29.265.718 15% 4.475.152 17% 15% 1083,9 242,2

PA 0,77 UA/ha 18.262.547 10% 2.079.954 8% 11% 501,7 241,2

PR 1,13 UA/ha 9.475.676 5% 1.204.666 5% 13% 279,4 231,9

RO 0,88 UA/ha 12.182.259 6% 1.893.136 7% 16% 433,5 229,0

RS 0,82 UA/ha 14.478.312 8% 1.885.435 7% 13% 412,3 218,7

SP 1,98 UA/ha 11.024.796 6% 3.269.852 12% 30% 809,3 247,5

TO 0,78 UA/ha 8.025.400 4% 1.053.689 4% 13% 243,1 230,7

Total/Average 0,93 UA/ha 190.402.630 26.181.927 14% 6207,7 234,3

Brasil 212.815.311 28.823.944 14% 6783,5 235,3

Representativiy of this sample

89% 91% 92%

Regions that we have “typical farms”

Source: Cepea/CNA; IBGE

Potencial de Produção

• Usando os dados das Fazendas Tipicas, simulando o potencial:

– Considering 3 scenarios:

• 1 – Average herd stocking of 1 UA/ha;

• 2 – Average herd stocking of 1,5 UA/ha;

• 3 – Average herd stocking of 2,0 UA/ha;

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

128%

188%

249%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Scenario 1 (1 UA/ha)

Scenario 2 (1,5 UA/ha)

Scenario 3 (2 UA/ha)

Potential Increased herd (heads)

126%

181%

238%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Scenario 1 (1 UA/ha)

Scenario 2 (1,5 UA/ha)

Scenario 3 (2 UA/ha)

Potential Slaughtered Animals (heads)

Brazil - Herd Increase

Sc. 1

243.883.688 128%

Sc. 2

357.836.057 188%

Sc. 3

473.565.741 249%

Source: Cepea

Indústria

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

Livestock Slaughter by region

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

11,96

5,94

3,11

6,28

3,70

31,12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00

19

97

19

98

1999

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

2009

20

10

20

11

20

12

Mill

ion

Mill

on

Brazil Bovine Slaughter (million heads)

Midwest North Northeast Southeast South Brazil

Source: IBGE, 2013

Slaughter under federal, state and municipal

inspection

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

39%

19%

10%

20%

12%

Distribution of Bovine Slaughter - 2012

Midwest

North

Northeast

Southeast

South

Bovine Slaughter - 2012

Brazil Heads Carcass Thousand Tons

% 31.117.549 7.350,92

No

rth

Rondônia 2.046.868 479,17 7%

Acre 413.401 90,49 1%

Amazonas 215.436 47,62 1%

Roraima 37.259 8,29 0%

Pará 2.177.806 524,23 7% Amapá - - 0%

Tocantins 1.051.092 239,94 3%

No

rhte

ast

Maranhão 683.687 158,02 2%

Piauí 156.118 27,71 1%

Ceará 278.992 54,87 1%

Rio Grande do Norte 115.689 22,44 0%

Paraíba 91.483 19,21 0%

Pernambuco 302.273 65,48 1%

Alagoas 201.128 42,63 1%

Sergipe 105.622 27,68 0%

Bahia 1.171.343 273,33 4%

Sou

thea

st Minas Gerais 2.480.113 581,74 8%

Espírito Santo 272.292 64,15 1%

Rio de Janeiro 174.475 37,72 1%

São Paulo 3.348.472 833,00 11% So

uth

Paraná 1.346.753 314,99 4%

Santa Catarina 420.706 93,98 1%

Rio Grande do Sul 1.934.150 424,43 6%

Mid

wes

t Mato Grosso do Sul 3.988.813 945,90 13%

Mato Grosso 5.015.717 1.220,22 16%

Goiás 2.922.751 716,30 9%

Distrito Federal 37.022 8,99 0% Source: IBGE, 2013

Participation of larger industries in slaughter

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

Source: Mapa, Cepea, Famasul

Animals Slaughtered Participation

per month 4 larger (%)

Sao Paulo 238.809 59% 35.0% 11.1% 12.9%

Minas Gerais 174.285 32% 24.0% 7.6%

Mato Grosso do Sul 332.173 48% 32.3% 10.6% 4.6%

Mato Grosso 443.298 60% 39.5% 9.9% 10.7%

Goiás 240.319 56% 27.8% 13.7% 14.6%

Brasil 2.081.692 50.8% 30.3% 9.7% 8.5% 2.3%

State JBS MARFRIG MINERVA BRFoods

Varejo

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

BRAZILIAN RETAIL

• 40 % SUPERMERCADO;

– 3 BIGGEST - 55%

• 60% OUTROS;

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

Livestock Inspection

30/09/2013 NESPRO 2013

23.329.697,0 ; 75%

5.414.878,0 ; 17%

2.372.974,0 ; 8%

Brazil Slaughter Inspection – 2012 (representativeness – heads slaughtered)

Federal State Municipal

208; 15%

426; 31% 728; 54%

Stablishments under Inspection 2012

Federal State Municipal

Source: IBGE, 2013

NOVO MERCADO

Fonte: Jornal Estado de São Paulo 23/03/2011

EVOLUÇÃO DA @ BOI GORDO – INTERNACIONAL Dez/2005 a Dez/12

Fonte: Cepea, INAC, MLA, Bloomberg e SAGPYA R$ 120/@ = US$ 60/@

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

dez/

05

fev/0

6ab

r/06

jun/0

6ag

o/0

6o

ut/

06

dez/

06

fev/0

7ab

r/07

jun/0

7ag

o/0

7o

ut/

07

dez/

07

fev/0

8ab

r/08

jun/0

8ag

o/0

8o

ut/

08

dez/

08

fev/0

9ab

r/09

jun/0

9ag

o/0

9o

ut/

09

dez/

09

fev/1

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r/10

jun/1

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o/1

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ut/

10

dez/

10

fev/1

1ab

r/11

jun/1

1ag

o/1

1o

ut/

11

dez/

11

fev/1

2ab

r/12

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2o

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12

dez/

12

US

$/@

Uruguai Brasil Austrália Paraguai USA

30/09/2013

http://cepea.esalq.usp.br

cepea@usp.br

55 019 3429 8802

OBRIGADO Thank you!!!!

NESPRO 2013