2010

,

:

(, ),

, ( , , ,

), ,

copyright,

copyright .

2

.

:

- . ()

-

- .

.

3

.

4

............................................................................................................................................9

1 ...................................................................................................................................11

..........................................................................................................................................11

................................................................11

1.1 ..............................................11

2 ...................................................................................................................................18

1869 1996........................................................................18

1869 1914............................................................................18 : 1873-1881...................................................................................................18 : 1881-1889 .................................................................................................19 : 1889-1900 .....................................................................................................20 : 1900-1912 .................................................................................................20

1919 1938............................................................................21 : 1921-1926..................................................................................................22 : 1926-1937......................................................................................................23

1945 1995............................................................................24 2, 1 1947 2000 ..............................................25 : 1945 -1951 ................................................................................................25 : 1951 1957.................................................................................................26 : 1951 1957 .................................................................................................26 : 1966 -1975 .................................................................................................28 & (): 1975-1988 ..............................................30 ( ): 1975-1980 ..........................................................31 ( ): 1980-1988 .........................................................33 : 1989 1996 .....................................................................................34

3 ...................................................................................................................................37 3.1 ......................................................................................................................37

3.2 ..........................................................................37

3.3 ........................................................................38 3.4 ...................................................40

3.4.1 VLCC ............................................................................................41

3.4.2 SUEZMAX..............................................................................44 3.4.3 AFRAMAX.................................................................................46

4......................................................................................................................................48

.......................48

4.1 ..........................................................................48 4.2 ...............................................49 4.3 ...............................................51 4.4 ..........................................................................53

4.5 .....................................................................57

4.6 ;.............................61 4.7 ; .............................................................62

5......................................................................................................................................64

.............................................................................64

5.1.1 FORWARD FREIGHT AGREEMENTS (FFAs)............................64

5

5.1.2 FREIGHT FUTURES...............................66 5.1.3 HYBRID FFAs.............................67 5.1.4 FREIGHT OPTIONS............................68 5.2 ............................................................................................................69 5.3 ..................................................................................................................................70

E .....................................................................................................................................72 ..........................................................................................................................72 () ..........................................................................72

.................................................................................................................................77

...........................................................................................................................................79

6

.

. ,

.

.

,

.

.

,

.

The Shipping circles are a line of changing phases of growth and constriction of

economic activity from the point of profit and employment. Constituting integral piece

of shipping industry and for this reason an economic analysis of ship market would be

insufficient without the study of this so much special phenomenon. They do not

constitute exclusive phenomenon of shipping, but happen in a lot of industries and in

the economy as total.

The reaction of ship owners in the change of world figurative needs is not

perfectly inelastic. The increase of speed of boats and the import of the ships that were

set aside in the limelight constitute the direct reaction of ship owners in case of

increase of transportation needs. Respectively in potential reduction of needs of

7

transport it will befall ships that will be set aside and reduction of speed of travel in the

level of economic speed. The time that intervenes from the appearance of young

persons of promising changes in the world transportation data up to the time of receipt

of boat from the ship yard, constitutes with the common expectations of ship owners

the beginning of causes for the creation of shipping circles.

8

.

.

1873

( )

.

.

,

. ,

.

,

.

.

.

, , , ,

, ,

..

.

.

/, ,

50 1864-1914 1945-1995.

.

-

- .

9

,

.

management

.

cash-flow.

,

, management .

,

.

Hampton

. .

.

,

. , ceteris paribus,

scrap.

.

10

1

. ,

.

.

""

, .

1 .

, ,

. ,

,

,

. ,

.

1.1

"

1 . (), ,

. , 51-55

11

". 1

(), ,

(), (

) . '

.

t1-n = f(, )

1:

.

.

,

.

,

. 1999 280.000

DWT $9.000 , 2000

$90.000 .

12

. "

", , ,

, 2 ,

. ,

.

1950 1974,

. ,

25

. 1980 bulk

tanker '90 tanker ,

. 1997

,

.

,

.

, ,

.

" ",

.

.

,

. '80

. VLCC

'80 $3 , 1989

$30 , 5 .

, .

;

2 . (), , . , 77-83

13

Aframax ( ) (

). 0,87 ,

,

.

3 .

.

. ,

.

, ,

. ""

,

.

.

,

,

, , , .

.

,

.

, , , ,

, 3 . (), , . , 21-23

14

.

(6-7).

. 70%

,

.

4

.

, ,

.

Stopford,

,

.

.

. , ,

, scrap

.

,

,

, ..

timing

.

.

,

. timing

,

.

4 . .., , J+J , 77-83

15

,

timing .

,

.

,

.

5 ,

, ,

.

. cash flow .

,

. cash flow

,

.

,

.

H

.

.

.

.

5 . .., , J+J , 101-103

16

, ,

,

.

,

.

,

, 50% (

80%-90%) , cash

flow

.

, .

.

,

.

,

6. ,

. , ,

.

.

, .

.

.

6 . .., , J+J , 123

17

2

1869 1996

1869 1996

.

.

1869 1914

.

.

1969 1908.

. , :

7

.

: 1873-1881

1870, 8 . 1871-73 7 .

18

.

1874 1879. ,

1877

, 1881.

Mac Gregor, 1878

.

, .

: 1881-1889

8 .

1879 1882,

.

1880-1883. ,

1883

1884.

, 8 ,

,

.

8 . .., , J+J , 69

19

, 1887.

1889.

: 1889-1900

,

11 . 1880

"" . 18

1888 1889.

. 1890,

,

1890. 1895 ,

, .

,

.

.

: 1900-1912

' 1914

, 12 .

1890,

1898, 1900.

1897, 1900

.

, 1900

. 1901,

50% 1900.

1909. ,

20

, 1906.

""

. ,

.

, 1910,

.

,

.

"" 1911-1912

, 1913,

' .

1919 1938

.

. 1921 1926,

. , 1926 1937,

1930.

21

: 1921-1926

1920 ,

200 1921.

1 - Biffex

, ,

. 1922, 110 ,

.

1924-1925 ""

1926, 170 .

.

. ,

, 1920-1929

50% 300 . 1920, 470 .

1929. , '

,

22

. ,

,

,

. ,

.

: 1926-1937

'20,

1930. "Wall Street"

1929,

, ""

'30. 1929 1932

26%,

3 . grt 1930 14 . grt 1932,

21% .

.

"Economist", 110 '20,

80 1937,

50%. 1933,

,

.

" " (distress sales)

.

,

,

.

1935 1937,

,

23

. 1938,

1,3 . grt,

"Economist" 145 .

.

1938

1937 1938.

1 . grt, 1938 2,5 .

grt.

1945 1995

50 '

7,4

, .

.

,

. ""

,

. ,

, , -

""

.

24

2, 1 1947 2000

: 1945 -1951

. 1945,

, (sky high levels)

. 1946,

1947

1949,

. 1950 ,

.

25

: 1951 1957

1951,

.

16% , "" .

, , 1952

70% 1951 . 1953,

1951.

. "Liberty" 1944

110.000 1950, 500.000 1951,

230.000 1952.

1954

. (1953) (

1954), 1954.

30%.

' 1955, 1956

,

"" .

: 1951 1957

1957

. 1956 ,

, '30. -

1956 (sky high rates),

' 1957 (rock bottom rates).

26

1967,

.

,

""

,

.

,

1958, ,

,

. 1956,

"tramp" 1957.

"Liberty" ' . 3.000

, 4

. ,

,

. ,

,

.

. ....

4% 1958,

1932. 1957

, -

"" 1955 1956.

, .

1958, 990 . 1959,

1.790 . 1966, 80% 7 . -

27

.

'50,

.

1967 ,

.

, ""

1956,

.

"spot",

.

: 1966 -1975

1967,

.

"" (freight market booms)

,

.

,

(combined carriers)

.

' ,

.

1970 1973

(peaks)

, .

28

1970, "Tap Line"

,

Sidon 15 . ,

. ,

1973

.

, ""

, 1.807 .

1966 3.233 . 1973, 78% .

. ,

,

. 1971

,

"" 1970. ,

.

1973 .

, "VLCC"

$ 2,5/dwt/ ($ 22.000/) $ 5/dwt/ ($ 50.000/),

40% - 60% ,

.

"Yom Kippur"

1973, ' 1974,

"bulk carriers" 1975.

""

.

29

& (): 1975-1988

, Yom Kippur

1988,

1979. ,

. ,

70.

, 1973,

225 . dwt,

320 . dwt,

. ,

60 . dwt

.

,

'60 . ,

,

. ,

1973 1979,

. 1985,

30%.

.

14 . 1974

. "VLCC " 270.000 dwt

$ 28.000 ,

$ 11.000 .

50%.

"VLCC" 200.000 dwt 1970, $ 52 . 1973 $ 23 . 1974,

$ 10 . 1975, $ 9 . 1976 $ 5 . 1977.

30

, .

13,4 . dwt 8,6 . dwt 1979

. ,

,

, "VLCC" 200.000 dwt $ 11 .

1980.

1981-1985,

. (1976-

1981),

80.000 dwt

, .

, 1981

() "spot".

40 . dwt 1982 52 . dwt 1983.

"scrap",

5 6 . 1983

"VLCC" $ 3 . 1985,

"" (sentiment of the market hit rock bottom),

.

1986, . ,

70% "VLCC" 250.000 dwt 8

$ 5 . $ 10 . , 1989

$ 38 .,

. ,

1974 1988

, .

( ): 1975-1980

1975-1995,

.

31

"bulk carriers" 6 , 1975 1980.

1973 1974 ""

. ,

"spot" 1975

1978. , '

,

(running cost). 1977,

.

1978 ,

1979 1980. 1978

30%, ' 1979

1974.

,

.

7,5% 1979, 2,5%

. ,

1979 ,

,

. ,

.

1980,

.. 100

,

.

,

. ,

1980 50%

1979.

32

( ): 1980-1988

""

1981,

. (daily earnings) "Panamax"

$14.000/ , $8.500/ .

..,

. ,

.

,

,

1983 1984 .

1982 ,

" Panamax " $ 4.200/.

1983 .

,

.

, "bulk

carriers" 1983 1984.

"Sanko Steamship"

120 , ,

.

1905 1906

.

1980. ,

, . ,

. , 1983

, . ,

, 1985, -

.

33

,

.

, 1984,

. ,

"bulk carriers"

,

.

, .

"Panamax" -

$ 6.500 1985,

.

,

. (bank foreclosures) "

" (distress sales) .

""

1986, "Panamax" $ 6 .

$ 28 . 1980.

,

1989-90.

"Panamax" $ 4.400/ 1986, $ 13.200/ 1989.

1986 1989

, (asset

play strategy). "Panamax" $

6,2 . 1986, $ 12 . 1987, $ 17,2 . 1988 $ 23 . 1989.

: 1989 1996

"" 1985

1986,

"" 1989,

34

. ,

, .

,

(1988 1991) , 55 . dwt

.

.

, -

"" '70,

20 ,

'90.

,

'80,

. ,

, 1986

"VLCC" $ 40 ., 1990 ""

$ 90 .

,

(long haul sources),

"VLCC". ,

.

70 20 .

'90, "" 15 . dwt

33 . dwt. , ,

(short haul sources) ' . ,

,

1992 1995. ,

1996.

35

.

1989

.

1989,

1988-1991 24 . dwt ,

55 . dwt .

1992, "bulk carriers"

4 . dwt , 16 . dwt .

1992,

1995. ,

. 1993-1995 55 . dwt .

36

3

1869-1996

3.1

1869 1996

, .

.

.

(.

)

9. , ,

.

3.2

2.2

1872 1989 7.1

. 12

.

6.6 1947-89 20

7.6 1872 1936.

9 . .., , J+J , 156

37

,

11 , , ,

.

3/4 .

,

.

F.

, .

1, .

1872 2000,

1872-1937

1947 2000.

2,3 ,

2,5 , 2,1

. .

,

95% . 50 ,

2.6 10.6

.

,

.

3.3

10.

; ,

10 . (), Management , 1 , 2 , 3 - - . , 127-136

38

2.2,

1869-1994.

1950 .

, 1869-1937, 4 10

.

, 1950-93,

. 25 4 10 .

" " , .

2.2:

()

1 1873 1881 8

2 1881 1889 8

3 1889 1900 11

4 1900 1912 12

1913 1919

5 1921 1926 5

6 1926 1937 11

1939 1945

7 1945 1951 6

8 1952 1957 5

9 1957 1966 9

10 1966 1975 9

11 1975 1980 5

12 1980 1989 9

1872-2000 7.1 2.3

1872-1937 7.6 2.5

1947-2000 6.6 2.1

39

3.4

, Tankers.

Tankers Tankers

.

tankers

.

2000 ( 2003 3

) , .

,

.

93,7 .

2011 2005 83,3 .,

12,5%.

10 ,

. ,

, .

, 2001 4,7 .

, 10 . 2011.

.

.

(VLCCS),

11.

11 .

40

2 :

)

.

( )

.

)

3 tankers

3

.

.

3.4.1 VLCC

41

1 VLCC

2 VLCC

2006 VLCCs 20000$ 100000$

.

.

.

. 104,

120 (fixtures)

130!

, . 2

(Middle East Gulf/Far East Middle East Gulf/West)

59000$ !!

42

2 (West Africa/US Gulf West

Africa/East voyages), ,

68000$ , 2005 63000$

.

VLCC .

East of Suez,

, .

2010,

. ,

.

, Middle East Gulf

( )

.

2006 502 VLCCs

, 65% . ( 2005

481 ). 172

35% ,

2008 2009.

43

3.4.2 SUEZMAX

3 SUEZMAX

4 SUEZMAX 1998 2009

44

VLCCs

2006 ,

. Suesmax 2

, 2006

2 .

,

.

West Africa/US Gulf TCE

44000$/ ( 2005 43000)

VLCC

.

-

67000$/-

21000$/-.

58000$/ ( 2005 65000).

30000$/-

, ,

80000$/.

VLCC, Suezmax

.

,

.

, ,

Suezmax. 2006

Suezmax 352 ( 78%

) 2005 335. 104 Suezmax ,

2009.

45

3.4.4 AFRAMAX

5 AFRAMAX

6 AFRAMAX

46

Aframax 728

2006 ( Suezmax).

242 Aframax, 11 .

Aframax

, .

Aframax,

2006 - 43450$/-

2005 57000$/-.

tankers . 2004 2005

- 2005 80000$/

120000$/ -.

Aframax 2006 - 60000$ /

80000$/ .

2006 2

.

20000$/ ( ). ,

, .

47

4

4.1

, 12, ,

. ,

( ).

, .

,

,

.

, ,

.

,

,

, . ,

,

.

,

.

. ,

12 . (), Management , 1 , 2 , 3 - - . , 62

48

. ,

,

,

.

.

4.2

,

,

.

,

. , ,

.

1953 2001,

, ,

.

1957, 1973(

), 1981( ) 1997( ),

. ,

. , .

13,

, ,

,

, (

13 . (), Management , 1 , 2 , 3 - - . , 99-102

49

) .

,

, . ,

, ,

.

;

, J. Kitchin14 (1923). ,

( )

,

.

(

),

.

,

,

.

. ,

, (

), ,

( )

..

, ()

. , 15,

,

14 J. Kitcin(1923): Cycles and trends in economics factors, Review of Economic Statistics, 5, pp. 10 16. 15 . (), Management , 1 , 2 , 3 - - . , 91

50

.

, .

19 Juglar16 ,

,

,

. Kitchin,

,

.

,

,

,

,

.

, ,

, .

, 1973 1979,

1997 1990-91.

,

.

4.3

.

16 C. Juglar in (1862): Des Crises commerciales et leur retour periodique en France, Angleterre et aux Etats Units

51

,

. ,

17

. ,

, ,

, .

,

,

,

, .

, ,

,

. ,

. ,

,

,

.

,

, 120 . ,

18 . ;

.

. , 80, ,

17 . (), , , 71-75

18 . (), , , 99-115

52

bulk carriers, ,

1999, .

. , . ,

, ,

.

,

,

.

,

,

.

.

, Pigou19,

. ,

, ,

,

.

,

.

4.4

, .

,

.

1870 1914 1950 1973, 19 Pigou (1927)

53

. ,

.

, :

1. : ,

50,

.

2. :

.

3. :

20,

.

4. : ( ) . ,

30 80,

(

)

-.

:

1 :

3 . ,

.

.

54

20.

.

.

20 scrap

.

(1988),

,

,

- -

(

).

.

(1988) 20%

.

2 :

,

,

. - .

.

.

20 . (), , , 55-57

55

. .

3 :

.

.

(Peak)

.

.

3 .

.

(1988)

.

,

.

4:

.

.

.

56

. (1988),

.

.

,

, .

, ,

.

. ,

, ,

,

.

4.5

,

21

.

: 1)

, ; 2)

;

21 . (), , , 77-83

57

,

,

.

1970 .

2002

.

1997-2000 , Hong

Kong Taiwan

.

Kirkaldy (1913)

. (peaks)

(troughs)

, (cash flows).

Fayle (1933)

.. ,

. ,

, .

, ,

(trade boom),

(short shipping boom),

(prolonged slump) .

Cufley (1972)

.

.

, ,

. ,

.

58

Hampton (1991)

,

.

.

,

, . ,

. ,

. ,

, .

,

.

Nikolai Kondratieff

,

150 . Kondratieff 3

, 50

. 1790, 1844 1895. -

- 20-30

- 50 .

J.A Schumpter (1939)

, 1

Kondratieff (1790-1813) , 2 (1844-1874)

3 (1895-1914)

.

Stopford (1997)

,

. ,

59

,

.

.. (1998)

/

,

Stopford

48 50 60 ,

,

.

2:

1945-1956

1869-1914

1956-1973

1988-2000

1920-1930

1930-1939

1973-1989

60

4.6

;

,

, ,

.

. ,

.

" " ( )

.

1970.

,

, 1973

1979 1999. ,

OECD

.

.

,

1974, 1980 1989 1995

,

, . , ,

,

61

.

,

. "

,

,

.

4.7 ;

22

, " "

,

.

.

.

10 .

.

23 ,

,

.

22 . (), , , 12-16 23 . (), , , 36-39

62

,

, .

1931 1983. ,

,

. , OECD

, , ,

...

,

.

.

, ,

.

.

63

5

5.1.1. Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs)

, ,

,

. ,

, ,

(charterer).

, .

,

.

FFA

.

.

, FFA

. ( )

, FFA.

, ,

()

, ,

.

64

,

FFA.

,

.

( )

.

, .

, .

, FFA,

.

FFA 1992.

- (OTC) [

] .

1985 BIFFEX (Baltic

International Freight Futures Exchange).

BFI (Baltic Freight Index).

, - BFI ,

.

Panamax (BPI) 1998,

Capesize (BCI) 1999, Handymax (BHMI)

2000 Supramax (BSI) 2005.

.

,

.

. ,

65

FFA

.

, tanker FFA

Worldscale, tanker,

, .

,

.

tanker Baltic Exchange

BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) BCTI (Baltic Clean Tanker

Index). 1998.

FFA, ,

OTC,

. credit-risk

.

shipbrokers,

. OTC

.

. OTC ,

.

5.1.2. Freight Futures

OTC FFA,

freight futures,

exchanges IMAREX (International Maritime

Exchange) NYMEX (New York Merchantile Exchange).

66

IMAREX

, 2000.

(Freight Futures & FFAs) Norwegian Options

Futures Clearing House (NOS)

.

IMAREX

(.. Clarksons, Simpson Spence & Young, Freight Investors Services, .).

2005, NIMEX

tanker freight futures. Baltic Exchange Platts

dirty tanker routes TD3, TD5, TD7, TD9 TD10

clean tanker routes TC1, TC2, TC4, TC5. Singapore Exchange

(SGX) 2006 .

5.1.3. Hybrid FFAs

OTC

FFA, .

FFAs, OTC, LCH

Clearnet. FFA ,

. LCH Clearnet , 13 2005,

, OTC FFAs

. FFAs

LCH Clearnet 4 tanker FFAs, 4 FFAs , 3

FFAs 2

FFAs. FFAs

,

.

67

5.1.4. Freight Options

futures forward contracts, options contracts

.

. freight options

1991 European options contract BIFFEX,

LIFFE (London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange).

BIFFEX

2002.

OTC Options

,

FFA .

FFA. 1

2005 IMAREX Freight Option (IFO)

, TD3, NOS. IFOs

IMAREX NOS,

monthly call put options , .

IFOs Baltic Exchange. ,

,

.

freight option. freight put option freight

call option.

. put option,

.

. , call option,

68

( )

.

options. FFAs freight futures, downside cost

.

FFAs freight futures.

5.2

5.2.1.

,

. .

BIFFEX. LIFFE

1985 2002.

. , .

. BIFFEX

,

Haigh .

BIFFEX

.

.

. , cross-hedging . ,

BIFFEX, BFI,

.

, LIFFE

.

, .

69

2004 31%, 1950

World Trade Organization

.

,

scrap.

FFAs.

,

.

.

5.3.

,

dry FFAs, ,

, FFAs.

,

. FFAs

.

.

.

75%

.

. ,

FFAs.

70

, FFAs

.

FFAs Free On Board .

,

. FFAs

. ,

FFAs .

71

E

()

,

.

, .

. .

,

, , , ,

, ..

.

.

,

.

,

.

().

:

( &

).

72

.

.

.

,

.

.

:

. .

.

Capesize BC

, Panmax BC Handysize

BC .

,

, .

( ),

Handymax BC Panamax BC .

()

,

, . ,

.

73

,

.

Handysize BC Panamax BC

. Capesize BC

Handysize Panamax .

,

/ .

( 15%) Panamax BC

.

.., ,

.

.

.

,

()

.

( )

, ,

. , Capesize BC

,

. ,

Capesize BC

.

74

,

.

1 -- ,

.

,

,

- -

.

,

( ). ,

, .

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