Mindtree 4Q FY 2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

(` cr) 4QFY13 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) 4QFY12 % chg (yoy)Net revenue 612 590 3.8 526 16.5EBITDA 116 120 (3.4) 99 18.0

EBITDA margin (%) 19.0 20.4 (141)bp 18.7 25bp

PAT 79 99 (20.1) 69 14.5Source:Company, Angel Research

MindTree reported broadly in-line set of results on the revenue front, but

disappointed on the bottom-line font, for 4QFY2013. The volume growth wasstrong at 3.7% qoq but price realization declined by 1.4% qoq. The companys

Management indicated that it remains hopeful of FY2014 turning out to be a

better revenue growth year as compared to FY2013. We maintain our Accumulaterating on the stock.Quarterly highlights: For 4QFY2013, MindTree reported USD revenue growth of2.8% qoq to US$113mn. In INR terms, revenue came in at `612cr, up 3.8%qoq. The EBITDA and EBIT margins of the company declined by 141bp and

138bp qoq to 19.0% and 16.5%, respectively. This was due to factors such as:1) increase in SG&A expenses, 2) increase in employee costs due to freshers

getting added into the system and 3) decline in utilization level. The PAT came inat `79cr, down 20% qoq.

Outlook and valuation: MindTrees Management indicated that it remainshopeful of FY2014 turning out to be a better revenue growth year as compared

to FY2013 because of pick up in client spending (backed by a positive survey ofits top clients) and with the companys greater concentration on mining its focusclients. The company has invested into more hunting resources in the US andEurope in anticipation of more business on account of the above. Even within the

product engineering services (PES) segment, the company cited better prospectsin FY2014 as against in FY2013. The Management is confident that its ITservices business would continue with the momentum with fresher joining

mapped at a strong ~1700 headcounts for FY2014 (about 50% of it being spillover from FY2013 deferment) apart from the need based lateral additions. This

would help MindTree to rationalize its employee pyramid and cushion itsmargins. Overall, we expect the company to record a 10.5% and 10.3% CAGR

in USD and INR revenue, respectively, over FY2013-15. At the current market

price of `849, the stock is trading at 10.0x FY2014E and 9.2x FY2015E EPS. Wevalue the stock at 10x FY2015E EPS, translating into a target price of `920, andmaintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.Key financials (Indian GAAP, Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 1,509 1,915 2,362 2,599 2,871% chg 16.4 26.9 23.3 10.0 10.5

Net profit 102 218 339 355 385% chg (52.6) 114.6 55.2 4.7 8.4

EBITDA margin (%) 11.8 15.3 20.6 19.4 19.2

EPS (`) 24.9 53.7 81.7 85.2 92.3P/E (x) 34.1 15.8 10.4 10.0 9.2

P/BV (x) 4.5 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.7RoE (%) 13.1 22.8 25.8 21.4 18.9

RoCE (%) 13.3 22.2 31.5 25.7 23.1

EV/Sales (x) 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 18.6 10.7 6.1 5.3 4.3Source: Company, Angel Research

ACCUMULATECMP `849

Target Price `920

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Net debt (`cr) (502)

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 18.8

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 7.5

FII / NRIs / OCBs 30.7Indian Public / Others 42.9

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (4.1) 10.3 9.1

Mindtree 8.2 55.5 32.3

Face Value (`)

IT

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (`cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

3,456

0.4

10

925/486

37,084

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

MTCL@IN

19,170

6,054

MINT.BO

Ankita Somani+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6819

[email protected]

MindTreePerformance highlights

4QFY2013 Result Update | IT

April 22, 2013

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Mindtree | 4QFY2013Result Update

April 22, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance (Indian GAAP, Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Net revenue 612 590 3.8 526 16.5 2,362 1,915 23.3Cost of revenue 375 352 6.5 318 17.8 1,427 1,248 14.4Gross profit 238 238 (0.2) 208 14.5 934 667 40.0

SG&A expenses 122 118 3.1 109 11.3 448 374 19.8

EBITDA 116 120 (3.4) 99 18.0 486 293 65.9Depreciation 16 15 2.6 17 (7.7) 62 70 (10.2)

EBIT 101 105 (4.3) 82 23.3 424 223 89.6

Interest expense 0 0 0 1 0

Other income 0 21 1 1 38

PBT 101 126 (20.2) 83 22.2 424 261 62.0

Income tax 22 28 (20.4) 14 61.0 85 43 97.0

PAT 79 99 (20.1) 69 14.5 339 218 55.2

Minority interest - - - - - - - -

Share in profit of associates - - - - - - - -

Adj. PAT 79 99 (20.1) 69 14.5 339 218 55.2EPS 18.9 23.8 (20.6) 16.8 12.4 81.7 53.7 52.0

Gross margin (%) 38.8 40.4 (155)bp 39.5 (68)bp 39.6 34.8 472bp

EBITDA margin (%) 19.0 20.4 (141)bp 18.7 25bp 20.6 15.3 528bp

EBIT margin (%) 16.5 17.8 (138)bp 15.5 92bp 17.9 11.7 627bp

PAT margin (%) 12.9 16.2 (328)bp 13.1 (20)bp 14.3 11.2 316bp

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:Actual vs Angel estimates

(` cr) Actual Estimate % VarNet revenue 612 612 0.0

EBITDA margin (%) 19.0 20.8 (180)bp

PAT 79 91 (12.9)


Modest performance

For 4QFY2013, MindTree reported a USD revenue growth of 2.8% qoq to

US$113mn, on the back of 3.7% qoq volume growth. Blended realization declined

by 1.4% qoq. The Management indicated that pricing declined because of a high

base effect (as pricing had inched up in 3QFY2013), and lower working days

sequentially. In INR terms, revenue came in at `612cr, up 3.8% qoq.

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Exhibit 3:Trend in revenue growth (qoq)


Service vertical wise, the companys growth was led by discretionary IT services ie

package implementation (contributed 4.6% to revenue) and IP led services

(contributed 1.7% to revenue), the revenue from which grew by 15.3% and 34.4%,

respectively. The companys anchor service verticals - application development

(contributed 25.2% to revenue) and application maintenance (contributed 21.7% to

revenue) maintained their revenue momentum and grew by 1.2% and 2.8% qoq,

respectively. Infrastructure Management Services (IMS; contributed 13.8% to

revenue) continued its growth traction with revenues growing by 8.3% qoq; over

the last 12 quarters, this service has grown at a CQGR of ~15%. Revenue growth

from engineering services and consulting declined by 3.4% and 6.9% qoq,respectively.

Exhibit 4:Growth trend in service verticals

Particulars % to revenue % chg (qoq) % chg (yoy)Development 25.2 1.2 10.6

Engineering 12.5 (3.4) (26.1)

Maintenance 21.7 2.8 8.5

Consulting 2.9 (6.9) (8.3)

Package implementation 4.6 15.3 37.4

IP led revenue 1.7 34.4 52.4

Independent testing 17.6 2.2 5.7

Infrastructure mgmt. and tech. support (IMS) 13.8 8.3 53.0


Industry wise, revenue from total IT services (ITS) during the quarter grew by 3.1%

qoq to US$79mn. In ITS, the major growth driver was manufacturing and retail,

the revenue from which grew by 8.2% qoq. Revenue from travel, media & services

grew by 2.8% qoq, while revenue from banking, financial services & insurance

(BFSI) industry segment declined by 1.7% qoq. Revenue from PES grew by 2.4%

qoq. For FY2013, the revenue from ITS grew by 14% while PES witnessed a decline

in revenue by 4% qoq, during the same period. The Management has indicated ata recovery in demand in the PES segment, basing the estimation on pipeline

additions and new deal wins; it has also indicated at FY2014 being a better year

for the entire business.

105 106107

110

113

1.3

0.4

1.7

2.5

2.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

90

95

100

105

110

115

4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

(%)

(US$mn)

Revenue (US$ mn) qoq growth (%)

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Exhibit 5:Growth trend in industry segments

Particulars % to revenue % chg (qoq) % chg (yoy)ITS

Manufacturing and retail 19.9 8.2 19.6 BFSI 21.8 (1.7) 10.6

Travel, media and services 19.9 2.8 3.9

Others 8.6 5.2 23.3

PES 29.8 2.4 (2.3)


Geography wise, growth was once again led by revenues from developing

countries (Rest of the World), the revenue from which grew by 22.5% qoq.

Revenues from Europe and India declined slightly by 0.3% and 0.5% qoq,

respectively.

Exhibit 6:Growth trend in geographies

Particulars % to revenue % chg (qoq) % chg (yoy)U.S. 55.3 1.9 3.8

Europe 29.3 (0.3) 13.8

India 6.1 (0.5) (12.5)

Rest of World 9.3 22.5 33.4


Hiring and utilization

During 4QFY2013, gross additions at MindTree stood at 974 (~550 gross

additions); while on a net level 639 employees got added into the system, taking

the total employee base to 11,591. The attrition rate (last twelve month [LTM]

basis) during the quarter decreased to 13.4% in 4QFY2013 from 15.1% in

3QFY2013. The company has given campus offers to ~1,700 people (to join in

FY2014), and hiring of laterals will be done keeping in mind the demand

scenario.

Exhibit 7:Employee metrics

Particulars 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13Software professionals 10,330 10,173 10,226 10,280 10,912Sales and support 670 657 657 672 679

Total employee base 11,000 10,830 10,883 10,952 11,591

Gross addition 502 272 454 443 974

Net addition 66 (170) 53 69 639

Attrition LTM (%) 18.2 17.0 16.3 15.1 13.4


Utilization level, including as well as excluding trainees, declined by 180bp and

220bp qoq to 69.6% and 70.9% qoq, respectively.

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Exhibit 8:Utilization trend


Margin declines

For 4QFY2013, MindTrees EBITDA and EBIT margins declined by 141bp and

138bp qoq to 19.0% and 16.5%, respectively. This was due to factors such as:

1) increase in SG&A expenses, 2) increase in employee costs due to freshers

getting added into the system and 3) decline in utilization level.

Exhibit 9:Margin profile


The PAT came in at `79cr, down 20% qoq, largely led by lower than expected

operational performance.

Client pyramid

MindTree added five new clients during 4QFY2013, with four out of them being in

the US$1mn plus revenue brackets. The revenue from top 5 and top 10 clients

declined by 3.3% and 0.3% qoq, respectively while revenues from the companys

top client grew by 0.3% qoq.

67.8

68.9

71.771.4

69.6

72.1

71.5

72.3

73.1

70.9

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74


(%)

Ut il ization - incl. trainees Ut il ization -excl . trainees

39.5 38.940.1 40.4

38.8

18.720.9 22.1 20.4

19.0

15.518.0

19.517.8 16.5

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


(%)

Gross margin EBITDA margin EBIT margin

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April 22, 2013 6

Exhibit 10:Client metrics

Particulars 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13Active clients 237 245 247 245 232

New clients added 6 19 11 8 5US$1mn-5mn 60 61 56 49 54

US$5mn-10mn 10 9 9 12 11

US$10mn plus 7 8 8 9 9


Outlook and valuation

MindTrees Management indicated that it remains hopeful of FY2014 turning out

to be a better revenue growth year as compared to FY2013 because of pick up in

client spending (backed by a positive survey of its top clients) as well as a result of

companys greater concentration on mining its focus clients. Also, it expectsincreased investments, which have been made through FY2013, to meet some

success and contribute to sales. While the macro remains uncertain, the

Management has increased its focus on the top 40 clients by appointing an

additional sales team. The company has invested into more hunting resources in

the US and Europe in anticipation of more business on account of the above. Even

within the PES segment, the company cited better prospects in FY2014 as against

in FY2013.

The Management is confident that its IT services business would continue with the

momentum, with fresher joining mapped at a strong ~1700 headcounts for

FY2014 (about 50% of it being spill over from FY2013 deferment), apart from theneed based lateral additions. This would help MindTree to rationalize its employee

pyramid and cushion its margins. Overall, we expect the company to record a

10.5% and 10.3% CAGR in USD and INR revenue, respectively, over FY2013-15.

MindTree had been able to improve its EBITDA margin by 530bp yoy from FY2012

(15.3%) to FY2013 (20.6%), driven by minor enhancements in efficiency and

mainly out of deriving benefits from INR depreciation. The move of rationalizing

the employee pyramid has helped significantly - employees having less than three

years of experience currently stand at ~36% as a percentage of total employees as

against 30% at the start of FY2012. Going ahead, given INR remains range

bound, we expect the EBITDA margin of MindTree to come down to 19.4% and19.2% for FY2014 and FY2015, respectively. We expect the company to record a

7% CAGR in its PAT over FY2013-15.

At the current market price of `849, the stock is trading at 10.0x FY2014E and

9.2x FY2015E EPS. We value the stock at 10x FY2015E EPS, translating into atarget price of `920, and maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.

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April 22, 2013 7

Exhibit 11:Key assumptions

Particulars FY2014 FY2015Revenue growth-USD terms (%) 10.5 10.5

USD-INR rate 54.0 54.0Revenue growth-INR terms (%) 10.0 10.5

EBITDA margin (%) 19.4 19.2

Tax rate (%) 23.5 24.5

EPS growth (%) 4.3 8.4


Exhibit 12:Change in estimates

FY2014 FY2015Parameter Earlier Revised Variation Earlier Revised Variation(` cr) estimates estimates (%) estimates estimates (%)Net revenue 2,587 2,599 0.5 2,823 2,871 1.7

EBITDA 502 503 0.1 548 552 0.8

PBT 467 464 (0.6) 502 510 1.5

Tax 105 109 3.8 118 125 5.8

PAT 362 355 (1.9) 384 385 0.2


Exhibit 13:One-year forward PE(x) chart


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Apr-07 Dec-07 Aug-08 Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13

(`)

Price 24x 19x 14x 9x 4x

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Exhibit 14:Recommendation summary

Company Reco. CMP Tgt. price Upside FY2015E FY2015E FY2012-15E FY2015E FY2015E(`) (`) (%) EBITDA (%) P/E (x) EPS CAGR (%) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%)

HCL Tech Buy 721 863 19.7 20.7 11.7 19.6 1.3 21.5Hexaware Buy 85 105 23.5 19.2 7.3 9.5 0.9 22.1

Infosys Accumulate 2,244 2,465 9.8 27.7 12.3 7.9 2.0 19.3

Infotech Entp. Buy 163 196 20.2 18.5 7.5 14.5 0.4 13.1

KPIT Cummins Buy 96 130 35.3 15.2 6.6 21.8 0.4 18.8

Mahindra Satyam Buy 108 143 32.6 19.1 9.1 2.3 0.8 20.1

MindTree Accumulate 849 920 8.4 19.2 9.2 19.8 0.8 18.9Mphasis Accumulate 363 395 8.9 17.4 8.7 3.3 0.6 13.6

NIIT^ Buy 23 30 28.2 9.1 4.3 (7.1) 0.1 11.9

Persistent Accumulate 545 602 10.5 24.6 9.1 19.3 0.9 16.8

TCS Accumulate 1,425 1,585 11.2 27.9 16.2 17.4 3.1 27.9

Tech Mahindra Buy 935 1,230 31.5 18.1 8.1 10.7 1.4 19.1

Wipro Accumulate 339 385 13.5 20.6 11.9 7.9 1.3 18.4

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Valued on SOTP basis

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Profit and loss statement (Indian GAAP, Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 1,296 1,509 1,915 2,362 2,599 2,871S/w development exp. 798 1,015 1,248 1,427 1,600 1,773

% of net sales 61.6 67.2 65.2 60.4 61.5 61.8

Gross profit 498 495 667 934 999 1,098

% of net sales 38.4 32.8 34.8 39.6 38.5 38.2

SG&A expenses 252 317 374 448 496 546

% of net sales 19.5 21.0 19.5 19.0 19.1 19.0

EBITDA 246 178 293 486 503 552% of net sales 18.9 11.8 15.3 20.6 19.4 19.2

Depreciation 65 71 70 62 68 75

EBIT 180 107 223 424 435 478

Interest expense, net 3 0 0 1 0 0

Other income, net 77 24 38 1 29 32

Profit before tax 255 131 261 424 464 510

Provision for tax 40 29 43 85 109 125

% of PBT 15.6 22.1 16.4 20.0 23.5 24.5

PAT 215 102 218 339 355 385Minority interest - - - - - -

Share in profit of associates - - - - - -

Adj. PAT 215 102 218 339 355 385EPS (`) 54.4 24.9 53.7 81.7 85.2 92.3

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Balance sheet (Indian GAAP, Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ELiabilitiesShare capital 40 40 41 42 42 42

Application money - - - - - -

Reserves and surplus 631 736 917 1,272 1,621 1,999

Total shareholders' funds 671 776 957 1,314 1,662 2,041Minority interest - - - - - 1

Secured loans - 4 4 3 3 3

Unsecured loans 3 - 41 22 22 22

Total debt 3 4 44 25 25 25Other long term liab. - 21 3 6 6 6

Total liabilities 674 801 1,005 1,344 1,693 2,072AssetsGross block - fixed asst. 515 562 590 653 773 894

Acc. depreciation 253 262 331 394 461 536

Net block 261 301 259 259 311 358

Capital WIP 25 0 9 57 57 57

Total fixed assets 286 301 268 316 368 415Goodwill 15 - - - - -

Investments 127 1 1 24 24 24

Deferred tax assets, net 21 22 32 36 36 36

Loans and advances - 42 54 62 62 62

Other non-current assets - 11 26 105 105 105

Current assetsSundry debtors 237 283 408 451 470 519

Cash and bank balance 52 46 60 124 384 613

Investments 195 111 308 403 442 488

Other current assets - 200 179 171 191 241

Total current assets 484 639 954 1,148 1,486 1,861

Less:- Current liabilitiesCurrent liabilities 211 161 257 236 272 301

Provisions 49 53 72 111 117 129

Net current assets 224 425 625 802 1,098 1,431Total assets 674 801 1,005 1,344 1,693 2,072

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Cash flow statement (Indian GAAP, Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EPre-tax profit from operations 178 106 223 423 435 478

Depreciation 65 71 70 62 68 75

Pre tax cash from operations 243 178 293 485 503 552

Other income/prior period ad 77 24 38 1 29 32

Net cash from operations 320 202 331 486 532 584

Tax 40 29 43 85 109 125

Cash profits 280 173 288 401 422 459(Inc)/dec in

Current assets (11) (161) (301) (131) (78) (145)

Current liabilities (48) (47) 116 17 42 42

Net trade working capital (59) (208) (185) (114) (36) (104)

Cashflow from operating 221 (35) 103 288 386 356(Inc)/dec in fixed assets (55) (86) (36) (111) (120) (121)

(Inc)/dec in investments (26) 127 - (24) - -

(Inc)/dec in deferred tax assets (2) (0) (10) (4) - -

(Inc)/dec in intangibles 131 15 - - - -

(Inc)/dec in other assets (33) (32) (45) (84) - 1

Cashflow from investing 15 24 (92) (222) (120) (120)Inc/(dec) in debt (136) 1 40 (20) - -

Inc/(dec) in equity/premium (82) 15 (33) 24 - -

Dividends (14) (12) (5) (6) (6) (6)

Cashflow from financing (232) 5 3 (2) (6) (6)Cash generated/(utilized) 4 (6) 14 64 260 229Cash at start of the year 49 52 46 60 124 384

Cash at end of the year 52 46 60 124 384 613

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April 22, 2013 12

Key ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 15.6 34.1 15.8 10.4 10.0 9.2

P/CEPS 12.0 20.1 12.0 8.6 8.2 7.5

P/BVPS 5.0 4.5 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.7

Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6

EV/Sales 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.8

EV/EBITDA 13.4 18.6 10.7 6.1 5.3 4.3

EV/Total assets 4.9 4.1 3.1 2.2 1.6 1.1

Per share data (`)EPS 54.4 24.9 53.7 81.7 85.2 92.3

Cash EPS 70.9 42.3 70.8 98.6 103.8 112.9

Dividend 11.8 10.0 4.0 5.5 5.5 5.5

Book value 170 190 235 323 408 501

Dupont analysisTax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1

EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

Asset turnover (Sales/Assets) 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.4

Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Operating ROE 32.0 13.1 22.8 25.8 21.4 18.9

Return ratios (%)RoCE (pre-tax) 26.8 13.3 22.2 31.5 25.7 23.1

Angel RoIC 39.7 14.1 35.5 55.7 53.8 52.3RoE 32.0 13.1 22.8 25.8 21.4 18.9

Turnover ratios (x)Asset turnover (fixed assets) 4.5 5.0 7.2 7.5 7.1 6.9

Receivables days 73 63 66 66 66 66

Payable days 114 67 61 63 62 62

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A il 22 2013 13

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement MindTree

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Documents

Mindtree 4Q FY 2013