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www.mercadoenergia.com
MERCADO ENERGIA S.A.
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
1200
2400
3600
4800
6000
Demand Tendency
Evo
lutio
n of
the
max
imun
ann
ual d
eman
d
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130.0%
1.5%
3.0%
4.5%
6.0%
7.5%
9.0%
Evo
lutio
n of
the
annu
al
grow
th r
ate
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
62.91% 58.49% 57.94% 55.86% 53.26%
37.09% 41.51% 42.06% 43.98% 46.24%
Thermoelectric power Hydroelectric power
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%
8%
16%
24%
32%
40%
48%
56%
64%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Natural gas Water Coal Petroleum derivatives BagasseSolar energy Biogas
Nat
ural
gas
and
wat
er
Oth
er r
esou
rces
ANNUAL REPORT OF THE PERUVIAN ELECTRICITY SECTOR
2013
1. BEHAVIOR OF DEMAND
1.1 MAXIMUM DEMAND The maximum demand of 2013 reached 5575.24 MW; 5.37% higher than the previous year. Graph Nº 1 shows the behavior of the maximum demand of electricity in the SEIN.
Graph Nº 1: Evolution of the peak electricity demand from 2009 to 2013. Source: COES Development: Mercado Energía 1.2 ANNUAL GROWTH The growth rate of demand for the SEIN in 2013 was 5.37%, down 19.13% from the previous year, also, the average of this indicator in the analysis period stood at 5.85%.
Graph Nº 2: SEIN growth rate evolution of the maximum demand SEIN from 2009-2013. Source: COES Development: Mercado Energía
2. BEHAVIOR OF THE OFFER
2.1 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY ENERGY SOURCES
The production of electricity in the SEIN, the year 2013 was 39669.43 GWh, up 6.29% to the value presented in 2012. Also, the electrical energy produced by the photovoltaic grid-connected
power plants accounted 0.496% (196.93 GWh) of the total shipped. Graph Nº 3 and Nº 4 show the participation progress of different energy sources in electricity generation in the SEIN.
Graph Nº 3: Evolution of production of thermoelectric and hydroelectric power in the SEIN (2009 to 2013). During the period of analysis, we see an average drop of 2.59% and an average growth of 3.58% in the percentage participation of hydroelectricity and thermoelectric power respectively. Source: COES Development: Mercado Energía Graph Nº 4: Percentage participation of different energy sources in electricity production in the SEIN (2009 to 2013). It is observed that the water and natural gas resources are used for this purpose. It is also noted that in 2013 significant declines occurred in the use of petroleum products, as these reduced their participation in 37.57% compared to 2012 (this trend has been happening since 2009). Source: COES Development: Mercado Energía 2.2 ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PER COMPANY.
2.2.1 Involvement of companies in the electricity production.
In Table Nº 1, we observe that companies like ELECTROPERU, EDEGEL and EGENOR shipped in together 60.64% of the hydroelectric power in the SEIN.
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2
MERCADO ENERGIA S.A.
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
HHI
HH
I ann
ual
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
HHI
HH
I ann
ual
YEAR 2013
Company Hydroelectric
generation (GWh)
Share
ELECTROPERU 7238.96 34.26%
EDEGEL 3545.34 16.78%
EGENOR 2027.75 9.60%
SN POWER 1773.92 8.40%
CELEPSA 1149.14 5.44%
CHINANGO 1140.59 5.40%
EGASA 1079.76 5.11%
ENERSUR 947.98 4.49%
SAN GABAN 781.23 3.70%
EGEMSA 712.78 3.37%
HIDROELECTRICA SANTA CRUZ 184.49 0.87%
EGESUR 110.31 0.52%
HIDROELECTRICA HUANCHOR 103.16 0.49%
AGUAS Y ENERGIA PERU 82.40 0.39%
GEPSA 72.80 0.34%
SOCIEDAD MINERA CORONA 51.43 0.24%
SINERSA 47.27 0.22%
HIDROCAÑETE 25.83 0.12%
ELECTRICA YANAPAMPA 19.09 0.09%
ELECTRICA RIO DOBLE 18.33 0.09%
MAJA ENERGIA 11.66 0.06%
ELECTRICA SANTA ROSA 4.12 0.02%
EGEHUANZA 0.21 0.00%
Total 21128.56 100.00%
Table Nº 1: Percentage participation of companies in the production of hydroelectric power by 2012. Source: COES
Development: Mercado Energía On the other hand in Table Nº 2, it is observed that ENERSUR, KALLPA GENERATION and EDEGEL, dispatched in aggregate 88.55% of thermoelectric generation in the SEIN.
YEAR 2013
Company Thermoelectric generation
(Gwh) Share
ENERSUR 6771.38 36.91%
KALLPA GENERACION 5458.35 29.76%
EDEGEL 4014.50 21.89%
TERMOSELVA 391.34 2.13%
EGASA 341.00 1.86%
EGENOR 307.83 1.68%
SDF ENERGÍA 217.78 1.19%
SDE PIURA 192.33 1.05%
EGESUR 158.24 0.86%
EEPSA 143.56 0.78%
MAPLE ETANOL 103.87 0.57%
AIPSA 90.75 0.50%
TERMOCHILCA 54.52 0.30%
ELECTROPERU 33.33 0.18%
PETRAMAS 31.17 0.17%
SHOUGESA 17.40 0.10%
FENIX POWER PERÚ 13.45 0.07%
EGEMSA 1.93 0.01%
SAN GABAN 1.24 0.01%
Total 18343.94 100.00%
Table Nº 2: Percentage share of enterprises in the production of thermoelectric power by the year 2012. Source: COES Development: Mercado Energía
2.2.2 Market Concentration in the SEIN Generation. The Graphs Nº 5, Nº 6 and Nº 7; show tendency of Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) during the period 2009-2013. This indicator measures market concentration in the supply of electricity and its optimum value must be less than or equal to 1800, otherwise, this index will indicate that there are economic groups with a high market share in the SEIN. It should be noted that Graph Nº 5 and Nº 6 show that the HHI index in the market for hydroelectric and thermoelectric generation have a decreasing tendency but with HHI values above 2500 and 2400 respectively.
Graph Nº 5: The HHI evolution of the hydroelectric market from 2009 to 2013. To draw the graph it was considered these business groups: ESTADO, ENEL, DUKE ENERGY, GDF SUEZ, ELÉCTRICA SANTA ROSA, DIA BRAS EXPLORATION, HIDROELÉCTRICA SANTA CRUZ, GEPSA, SN POWER, CELEPSA, SINERSA, AGROINDUSTRIAS MAJA, COMPAÑÍA MINERA BUENAVENTURA, ELECTRICA RIO DOBLE, ELECTRICA YANAPAMPA, VOLCAN COMPAÑÍA MINERA, AYEPSA and HIDROCAÑETE. Source: COES
Development: Mercado Energía
Graph Nº 6: Evolution of the HHI for the thermoelectric generation market from 2009 to 2013. To draw the graph it was considered these business groups: ESTADO, ENEL, DUKE ENERGY, GDF SUEZ, SHOUGANG, ISRAEL CORPORATION, FIBRAS SDF, AIPSA, MAPLE ENERGY, OLIMPYC PERU, AEI, SCL ENERGIA ACTIVA y PETRAMAS. The increase in the HHI index in 2013 is primarily due to the fee market of GDF SUEZ and ISRAEL CORPORATION. Source: COES Development: Mercado Energía
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3
MERCADO ENERGIA S.A.
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
2400
HHI
HH
I ann
ual
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0.0%
0.6%
1.2%
1.8%
2.4%
3.0%
NO RER RER
Cen
tral
s no
t RE
R
RE
R C
entr
als
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
CM Average
Ann
ual e
volu
tion
of th
e av
erag
e m
argi
nal c
ost (
US
$/M
Wh)
The other hand if one takes into account the total power generation market SEIN, the HHI index has decreased substantially since the year 2010 (see Graph Nº 7).
Graph Nº 7: Evolution of the HHI for the entire electricity generation market of SEIN from 2009 to 2013. To draw this graph it was taken into consideration the total economic groups operating in the market of generation of the National Interconnected System, which shows that by 2013 the HHI reaches a value of 1836.97 which is very close to the desired value. Source: COES
Development: Mercado Energía 2.2.3 Results of RER Auction The graph Nº 8 shows the electricity production evolution from renewable energy resources. By 2013 the power generated from these accounted was 2.52% (999.31 GWh) of the total ships in the SEIN.
Graph N ° 8: Evolution of the percentage of energy produced by the power plants that operate at SEIN entered through Auction RER (period 2009 to 2013). Source: COES
Development: Mercado Energía
3. MARGINAL COST BEHAVIOR
The average marginal cost for 2013 amounted to 70.42 soles/MWh (25.24 US$/MWh), down by 17.67% to the value presented in the preceding year. Also in the graph Nº 9 it is observed the marginal cost variation for the period 2009-2013. Remember that by Emergency Decree Nº 049-2008, the marginal costs of short-term of SEIN are
determined considering that there is no production restriction or transportation of neither natural gas nor electricity transmission. It should also be noted that the marginal costs may not exceed 313.5 soles/MWh by RM N° 607-2008-MEM/DM. Graph N ° 9: Variation of Marginal Cost in the SEIN (2009 to 2013). The average marginal cost in the study period was 27.15 US$/MWh (75.74 soles/MWh), also the average exchange rate used to draw the graph was 2.79 soles/dollar. Source: COES Development: Mercado Energía
CONTACTS
E-MAIL: [email protected]
Mercado Energía: USA USA-California-Silicon Valley: 1701 California St. Mountain View, CA 94041-1710 USA Phone: 1-650-265-2619 Mercado Energía: Perú Lima: Av. Circunvalación 725, 3er Piso San Ignacio de Monterrico – Surco Cusco: Urb. Santa Úrsula M-16, Wanchaq Cel.: (+0051) 989-289870