7/31/2019 Mock Ler

1/4

TO: Michael Roth

FROM: John B Mockler

RE: Proposition 30- Revenue Effects on K-12 Schools Proposition 98 funding

As a volunteer I have accompanied Governor Brown to various meetings of EditorialBoards to respond to technical questions regarding school funding underProposition 3. In addition I have answered questions regarding a comparison of K-12 school funding should Proposition 38 go into effect rather than Proposition 30.

I have received numerous questions from various reporters and editors requestingmy basic analysis that led to my conclusion that Proposition 30 providessubstantially more funds for K-12 schools from 2011-12 to 2016-17 thanProposition 38. Because of this Governor Brown asked that I provide you with myinformation for your use.

7/31/2019 Mock Ler

2/4

Page 2 of 2

Making fiscal projections is a dangerous business. The predictability of the variableseffecting out year revenues, populations, and calculations are not particularly stable.However the predictions that compare distributions are based on the same data andthus the relative effects will not vary substantially.

Using the available data demonstrates the following:

- Proposition 30 provides $6.3 billion more revenues to schools from 2011-12through 2016-17. After 2016-17 that a slight fiscal advantage in the range of$1.5 to $2.5 billion accrues to Proposition 38.

- A defeat of Proposition 30 would result in loss of Proposition 98 K-12Revenues in excess of $1.4 billion in 2011-12 and an additional $5.5 billionIn 2012-13. These losses continue and grow indefinitely.

Should you need additional information please let me know.

Attachments: (2) Proposition 30 K-12 Proposition 98 Revenue Comparisons

7/31/2019 Mock Ler

3/4

By John B. Mockler- September 24, 2012

If Proposition 30 Passes $83.0 Billion $92.2 Billion $95.2 Billion $105.4 Billion $111.9 Billion $116.4 Billion

If Proposition 30 Fails $79.9 Billion $86.6 Billion $88.9 Billion $98.2 Billion $104.2 Billion $108.4 Billion

Proposition 98

Proposition 30 Compared to Proposition 38 Funding for K-12 Schools: A Six Year Analysis

General Fund Revenues

K-12 Proposition 98 Funds

2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 Total 6 YearLoss/ Gain

If Proposition 30 Passes $42.6 Billion $47.7 Billion $48.8 Billion $54.8 Billion $58.5 Billion $60.8 Billion

If Proposition 30 Fails $41.2 Billion $42.2 Billion $43.1 Billion $49.2 Billion $50.9 Billion $52.9 Billion

Loss if Proposition 30 Fails -$1.4 Billion -$5.5 Billion -$5.7 Billion -$5.6 Billion -$7.6 Billion -$7.9 Billion -$33.7 Billion

Proposition 38 Provides:

K-12 New Funds $0.00 $0.00 +$8.9 Billion +$6.0 Billion + $6.20 Billion +$6.3 Billion +$27.4 Billion

Net Loss/ Gain to K-12 Schools -$1.4 Billion -$5.5 Billion $3.2 Billion $0.4 Billion -$1.4 Billion -$1.6 Billion -$6.3 Billion

6 Year Proposition 38 Net Loss to K-12 Schools -$6.3 Billion

7/31/2019 Mock Ler

4/4

By John B. Mockler- September 24, 2012 2

Proposition 98 Funding Per Pupil

Proposition 30 Passes Compared to Proposition 30 Fails

2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017

K-12 Per Pupil Funding

If Proposition 30 Fails $ 6,910.00 $ 7,052.00 $ 7,178.00 $ 8,208.00 $ 8,501.00 $ 8,830.00

If Proportion 30 Passes $ 7,133.00 $ 7,955.00 $ 8,130.00 $ 9,126.00 $ 9,767.00 $ 10,148.00

Proposition 30 AverageGain Per Student +$223 +$903 +$952 +$918 +$1,266 +$1,319